{"id":17992,"date":"2011-11-03T13:41:58","date_gmt":"2011-11-03T19:41:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/?p=17992"},"modified":"2011-11-03T13:49:35","modified_gmt":"2011-11-03T19:49:35","slug":"uah-snaps-down-in-oct","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/2011\/uah-snaps-down-in-oct\/","title":{"rendered":"UAH: Snaps down in Oct."},"content":{"rendered":"

The UAH temperature took a sharp downturn in October– but the trend since January 2001 remains positive (0.064 C\/dec): Trends along with uncertainty intervals estimated using a) the much reviled AR(1)+trend, b) the stationary ARIMA(p,0,q) with (p+q)<4 that gave the largest<\/i> uncertainty intervals and c)the ARFIMA(1,0>d,q) model obtained by using fracdiff to find the ‘best’ d:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Drops like this can be hard to anticipate. So, I know you are all wondering who won the quatloos? Well, this week, four bettors were ‘in the money’. The first place winner was
\nRobert Leyland \twho nailed<\/i> the UAH October anomaly by guessing 0.114 C. Robert edged out Bob Koss, who placed his money on 0.113. Meanwhile, BenjaminG just edged out Troy CA; these gentlemen bet on 0.101C and 0.100 C respectively. <\/p>\n

By the way: These were the 2nd-5th lowest values guessed. Good show! <\/p>\n

The details showing how much each person bet are shown below. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Winnings in Quatloos for UAH TTL October, 2011 Predictions. <\/br><\/caption>\n
Rank<\/td>\nName<\/td>\nPrediction (C)<\/td>\nBet <\/td>\nWon <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nGross<\/td>\nNet<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
—<\/td>\nObserved<\/td>\n0.114 (C)<\/td>\n <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1<\/td>\nRobert Leyland<\/font><\/td>\n0.114<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n66.93<\/td>\n62.93<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/td>\nBob Koss<\/font><\/td>\n0.113<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n66.93<\/td>\n61.93<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/td>\nBenjaminG<\/font><\/td>\n0.101<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n53.544<\/td>\n48.544<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/td>\nTroy_CA<\/font><\/td>\n0.1<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n13.471<\/td>\n9.471<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/td>\nMikeP<\/font><\/td>\n0.129<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n-5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6<\/td>\nJoel Heinrich<\/font><\/td>\n0.137<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n-5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7<\/td>\nFred N.<\/font><\/td>\n0.141<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n-3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8<\/td>\nRichard<\/font><\/td>\n0.087<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n-5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
9<\/td>\nGeorge Tobin<\/font><\/td>\n0.15<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n-4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10<\/td>\nAnteros<\/font><\/td>\n0.177<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n-5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
11<\/td>\ntorn8o<\/font><\/td>\n0.178<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n-5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
12<\/td>\nK\u00c3\u00a5re Kristiansen<\/font><\/td>\n0.18<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n-4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
13<\/td>\nRay<\/font><\/td>\n0.18<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n-5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
14<\/td>\npdjakow<\/font><\/td>\n0.19<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n-5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
15<\/td>\nMarcH<\/font><\/td>\n0.192<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n-5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
16<\/td>\nDon B<\/font><\/td>\n0.195<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n-4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
17<\/td>\nCassanders<\/font><\/td>\n0.197<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n-5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
18<\/td>\nChris Brown<\/font><\/td>\n0.203<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n-5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
19<\/td>\nBigBear<\/font><\/td>\n0.024<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n-4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
20<\/td>\ndenny<\/font><\/td>\n0.207<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n-3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
21<\/td>\nRobB<\/font><\/td>\n0.208<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n-5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
22<\/td>\nplazaeme<\/font><\/td>\n0.21<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
23<\/td>\nanton <\/font><\/td>\n0.21<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n-3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
24<\/td>\nob<\/font><\/td>\n0.211<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
25<\/td>\nSteve T<\/font><\/td>\n0.22<\/td>\n3.88<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n-3.875<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
26<\/td>\nsHx<\/font><\/td>\n0.22<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n-5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
27<\/td>\nFreezedried<\/font><\/td>\n0.221<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
28<\/td>\nJon P<\/font><\/td>\n0.221<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n-5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
29<\/td>\nLC<\/font><\/td>\n0.226<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n-5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
30<\/td>\nNyq Only<\/font><\/td>\n0.24<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n-3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
31<\/td>\nPaul Butler<\/font><\/td>\n0.242<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n-4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
32<\/td>\nPieter<\/font><\/td>\n0.243<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n-4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
33<\/td>\nEds<\/font><\/td>\n0.244<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n-5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
34<\/td>\nTamara<\/font><\/td>\n0.255<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n-5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
35<\/td>\nArfur Bryant<\/font><\/td>\n0.26<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n-5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
36<\/td>\nTimTheToolMan<\/font><\/td>\n0.26<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n-5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
37<\/td>\nEddieo<\/font><\/td>\n0.267<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n-5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
38<\/td>\nivp0<\/font><\/td>\n0.272<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n-5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
39<\/td>\nbob droege<\/font><\/td>\n0.285<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n-5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
40<\/td>\nTim W.<\/font><\/td>\n0.291<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n-5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
41<\/td>\nAndrewKennett<\/font><\/td>\n0.299<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n-4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
42<\/td>\nenSKog<\/font><\/td>\n0.299<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n-3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
43<\/td>\nJohn F. Pittman<\/font><\/td>\n0.301<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n-5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
44<\/td>\nLance<\/font><\/td>\n0.301<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n-4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
45<\/td>\nRoy Weiler<\/font><\/td>\n-0.135<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n-5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
46<\/td>\nAMac<\/font><\/td>\n0.402<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n-3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
47<\/td>\nGolfgeek<\/font><\/td>\n1.9<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n-5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n

The net winnings for each member of the ensemble will be added to their accounts.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Good going everyone– except maybe GolfGeek, who may have misplaced his decimal point. I’ll post the November betting form tomorrow! <\/p>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The UAH temperature took a sharp downturn in October– but the trend since January 2001 remains positive (0.064 C\/dec): Trends along with uncertainty intervals estimated using a) the much reviled AR(1)+trend, b) the stationary ARIMA(p,0,q) with (p+q)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[49],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17992","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-betting"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17992","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17992"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17992\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17992"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17992"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17992"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}