{"id":21597,"date":"2013-02-04T14:50:54","date_gmt":"2013-02-04T20:50:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/?p=21597"},"modified":"2013-02-04T14:50:54","modified_gmt":"2013-02-04T20:50:54","slug":"climate-sensitivity-ring-et-al","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/2013\/climate-sensitivity-ring-et-al\/","title":{"rendered":"Climate Sensitivity: Ring et. al."},"content":{"rendered":"

Some years ago, I attended a climate change debate at Argonne National Lab. The “cooler” side was represented by Fred Singer; the “warmer” side by Michael Shlesinger of the Univerisity of Illinois. Recently, during the discussions of climate sensitivity triggered by various reactions to Nic Lewis’s work and that of “the Norwegians”, and James Annan’s blog post which has been covered by Revkin, Richard Betts mentioned that Shlesinger’s group had recently published Causes of the Global Warming Observed since the 19th Century<\/a>. This paper happens to also provide an estimate of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity:<\/p>\n

Additionally, our estimates of climate sensitivity using our SCM and the four instrumental temperature records range from about 1.5\u00c2\u00b0C to 2.0\u00c2\u00b0C. These are on the low end of the estimates in the IPCC\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s Fourth Assessment Report. So, while we find that most of the observed warming is due to human emissions of LLGHGs, future warming based on these estimations will grow more slowly compared to that under the IPCC\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s \u00e2\u20ac\u0153likely\u00e2\u20ac\u009d range of climate sensitivity, from 2.0\u00c2\u00b0C to 4.5\u00c2\u00b0C. This makes it more likely that mitigation of human emissions will be able to hold the global temperature increase since pre-industrial time below 2\u00c2\u00b0C, as agreed by the Confer- ence of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Cancun [54]. We find with our SCM that our Fair Plan to reduce LLGHG emissions from 2015 to 2065, with more aggressive mitigation at first for industrialized countries than developing countries, will hold the global temperature in- crease below 2\u00c2\u00b0C [55].<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

For those wondering about the sorts of things Michael Shlesinger has written in the past, I point to
\nThe Dangers of Climate Change, Michael Schlesinger (Part 4 of 6), TUC Radio (transcript)<\/a> where he warns of a shut down of the gulf stream and a book chapter discussing climate sensitivity<\/a>.<\/p>\n

It is also worth nothing that even with the lower climate sensitivities Shlesinger now estimates he thinks the earth’s temperature rise will exceed 2C if we follow the “Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP-8.5) greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenario” (‘the highest of these scenarios’). His estimate for temperature anomalies relative to 1765, emissions and concentrations under this scenario are provided in A Fair Plan to Safeguard Earth\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s Climate<\/a> and shown below: <\/p>\n

\"FromShlesinger\"<\/a>
\n <\/p>\n

Eyeballing the graph, I’m seeing a projected temperature rise of 3C to 3.5C by 2100 in the third graph. Whether and equilibrium sensitivities of the magnitude Shlesinger now suggest result in temperature rises of that magnitude depends on the assumed emmissions path. I’d say it’s worth taking steps to reign emmissions in some– but then I’ve always said that.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Some years ago, I attended a climate change debate at Argonne National Lab. The “cooler” side was represented by Fred Singer; the “warmer” side by Michael Shlesinger of the Univerisity of Illinois. Recently, during the discussions of climate sensitivity triggered by various reactions to Nic Lewis’s work and that of “the Norwegians”, and James Annan’s … Continue reading Climate Sensitivity: Ring et. al.<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-21597","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-data-comparisons"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21597","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=21597"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21597\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=21597"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=21597"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=21597"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}