![\"Jan2000ToJan2013\"](\"http:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/Jan2000ToJan2013.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nBecause the SRES for the AR4 were not frozen in Jan 2000, I prefer to do comparisons since Jan 2001. Here is the GISTemp since that time: Note: My “red” uncertainty intervals use closed form correction to Quenoulli which attempts to widen the 95% uncertainty intervals to account for the known excess false positives of that method. (Unfortunately, the notes in my script don’t mention the paper– but I could dig that up.) The ARIMA(4,0,0) is the ARIMA(p,0,q) with p\u00e2\u2030\u00a44 and q\u00e2\u2030\u00a44 that happens to give the widest uncertainty intervals of all possibilities that are stationary.<\/p>\n Currently, the linear trends since 2000 or 2001 are not statistically significant based if we assume ‘noise’ can be described using the noise models provided and we use the 2-sigma uncertainty intervals as our cut-off point for significance. Meanwhile, a nominal trend of 0.2C\/decade continues to fall outside the 2 sigma range of possible trends and would be rejected as inconsistent with the observation using these methods. <\/p>\n Bleg<\/b> I saw that GISTemp had updated, and decided to take a breather from the sewing spree. For those wondering, here are the current uncertainty bounds on temperature trends since 2000. Update 3:36 pm. Due to the issue with reading GIStemp automatically, I had to modify my script, I modified in one spot but not another. … Continue reading GISTemp (and Question)<\/span>
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\nI’d show models and compare to other agencies but Hadcrut4 has not reported and — more importantly– I want to ask those who have run R if they have found any issues querying “http:\/\/data.giss.nasa.gov\/gistemp\/tabledata_v3\/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt” using R. That page returned a 403 when I tried to use R. Of course, I immediately tried my browser, which worked fine. So I tried spoofing the user agent, and was rejected at the GISTemp page. Does anyone know if there are changes in the access policy? Could some magical incantation permit me to access? (BTW: As someone who seriously checks all access to my blog to inhibit bots, my question is not<\/i> an attempt to complain about GISS, I’m just trying to discover if there has been some change in access policy. If I have to manually download and read a copy off my hard disk, that’s ok. But I want to know because having the script grab the data is more convenient and if others can still download using R, it may just be some problem with headers I’m passing or something.)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"