{"id":23942,"date":"2014-03-05T08:55:57","date_gmt":"2014-03-05T14:55:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/?p=23942"},"modified":"2014-03-05T08:55:57","modified_gmt":"2014-03-05T14:55:57","slug":"el-nino-coming-proposed-bets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/2014\/el-nino-coming-proposed-bets\/","title":{"rendered":"El Nino coming? Proposed Bets?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Evidently, El Nino is coming!<\/a> It’s a prediction, and it’s not here yet. But if it is, we’ll have a chance to see whether temperature do finally pierce the mid-plane of the AR4 predictions. Kim Cobb of GA Tech tells us<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. An ocean that is primed for an event (enough time elapsed since the last major event).<\/li>\n
  2. A strong burst of westerly winds along the equator in the west Pacific<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    The former, would, I guess mean that the heat that’s been hiding in the ocean will come out (or look at another way, heat previously able to jump into the ocean will be unable to do so.) The later would mean we have an indication this could happen now.<\/p>\n

    I’ve been waiting for something exciting to happen with temperatures (other than people finally admitting that there has been<\/i> something of a “haitus” and that this requires “explanation” rather than continuuing to deny that the rate of warming was<\/I> clearly below the mid-point of AR4 projections– and not even consistent with that. (And for those who think that “explaining” the fact that the warming was not consistent with 0.2C\/dec means that it is<\/i> somehow consistent: bunk. It has not been warming at a rate consistent with an ‘underlying’ or ‘expected value’ of 0.2C\/dec, and that is true regardless of ‘the cause’ of ‘the pause’.)<\/p>\n

    That said: we’ve got a little time to watch. If this happens, the excitement will probably not begin for at least 6 months. So, we’ll see. Possibly by next march we might be able to better assess whether the papers “explaining” the haitus as natural variability are right or wrong. Presumably, at some point we expect all those volcanic aerosols to fall out of the atmosphere too. <\/p>\n

    I think given the prediction of an El Nino, and the fact that these tend to start in Winter means that we should create an unusual bet metric. That is: Bet on the GISTemp average for July 2014-Jun 2015 inclusive. This would be computed based on average of monthly values in July 2015. (This would include Jun 2015.) Or some other set of months? What do you guys think? <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Evidently, El Nino is coming! It’s a prediction, and it’s not here yet. But if it is, we’ll have a chance to see whether temperature do finally pierce the mid-plane of the AR4 predictions. Kim Cobb of GA Tech tells us An ocean that is primed for an event (enough time elapsed since the last … Continue reading El Nino coming? Proposed Bets?<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[49],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-23942","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-betting"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23942","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23942"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23942\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23942"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23942"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23942"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}