{"id":26031,"date":"2018-06-04T06:43:20","date_gmt":"2018-06-04T12:43:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/?p=26031"},"modified":"2018-06-04T06:45:42","modified_gmt":"2018-06-04T12:45:42","slug":"fuego-erupted","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/2018\/fuego-erupted\/","title":{"rendered":"Fuego Erupted: It’s a doozy!"},"content":{"rendered":"

As may know, temperature dips are often attributed to volcanic eruptions. Fuego just erupted. The BBC<\/a> reports ash flew up as high as 6 km. This is evidently larger than the mid-70s eruption that caused the dip I discussed a while back, see below. The figure only shows forcings, but temperature are known to be affected.<\/p>\n

Those who think those swings “just happen”, or might be caused by El Nino or La Nina have probably never compared the big dips to the periods when major stratospheric volcanic eruptions<\/a> occurred. These were discussed a while back<\/a> and shown below:<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

You can scan up and down and begin to notice that, yes, as we have all heard, major stratospheric volcanic eruptions affect the global mean surface temperature. In fact, part of the proof that GCM’s are able to predict some variations in GMST arising from variations in forcings is that they do predict these the dip in temperature after eruption like Pinatubo.<\/p>\n

The phenomenology is understood: After a major stratospheric volcanic eruption, the stratosphere fills with aerosols. Radiative forcing decreases, and the global surface temperature drops for a while. Not surprisingly, 7 year trends with their start dates roughly 7 years or less before the eruption tend to dip.\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

I guess we’ll see what happens this year. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As may know, temperature dips are often attributed to volcanic eruptions. Fuego just erupted. The BBC reports ash flew up as high as 6 km. This is evidently larger than the mid-70s eruption that caused the dip I discussed a while back, see below. The figure only shows forcings, but temperature are known to be … Continue reading Fuego Erupted: It’s a doozy!<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[15,5],"tags":[464],"class_list":["post-26031","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-data-comparisons","category-global-climate-change","tag-volcanos"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26031","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26031"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26031\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26031"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26031"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26031"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}