{"id":7903,"date":"2009-11-05T09:22:39","date_gmt":"2009-11-05T15:22:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/?p=7903"},"modified":"2009-12-04T15:34:10","modified_gmt":"2009-12-04T21:34:10","slug":"el-nino-betting-pool-aso-nino-3-4-average","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/2009\/el-nino-betting-pool-aso-nino-3-4-average\/","title":{"rendered":"El Nino Betting Pool: ASO NINO 3.4 Average."},"content":{"rendered":"

The data required to compute the “ASO” average El Nino bets are now in. As readers recall, at first I was going to wait for NOAA to publish the value. But when someone found the weekly values, I decreed that the rules were that I would compute my own ASO average<\/a> based on the weekly values posted at ” Weekly SST data starts week centered on 3Jan1990″<\/a>. So, my values aren’t the “official values”; they are the “betting pool result”.
\n
\nThe method of computation is: I compute the “betting pool ASO average Nino 3.4 SST anomaly” over all weeks containing even a single day included in August\/September\/October, weighting by number of days in that span of time. <\/p>\n

This means I computed as follows:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Date
\n29-Jul-09
\n5-Aug-09
\n12-Aug-09
\n19-Aug-09
\n26-Aug-09
\n2-Sep-09
\n9-Sep-09
\n16-Sep-09
\n23-Sep-09
\n30-Sep-09
\n7-Oct-09
\n14-Oct-09
\n21-Oct-09
\n28-Oct-09<\/td>\n		Nino SSTA
\n0.8
\n0.8
\n0.7
\n0.7
\n0.9
\n0.9
\n0.9
\n0.9
\n0.8
\n0.7
\n0.7
\n0.9
\n1.1
\n1.5<\/td>\n		Days
\n1
\n7
\n7
\n7
\n7
\n7
\n7
\n7
\n7
\n7
\n7
\n7
\n7
\n7<\/td>\n		Product
\n0.8
\n5.6
\n4.9
\n4.9
\n6.3
\n6.3
\n6.3
\n6.3
\n5.6
\n4.9
\n4.9
\n6.3
\n7.7
\n10.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nTotal<\/td>\n92<\/td>\n81.3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n

ASO Average NINO 3.4 average=\t0.8837C<\/p>\n

Here’s what you all bet:
\n[sockulator(..\/musings\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/09\/UAHBets3.php?Metric=El Nino?Units=C?cutOffMonth=10?cutOffDay=5?cutOffYear=2009?DateMetric=October, 2009? )sockulator]<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

I’ll run the script to distribute Quatloos after you all have a chance to scan through and see how you did! <\/p>\n

Meanwhile, NOAA published their monthly discussion.<\/a> Look at the spread in the projections from models:
\n\"ForecastOctober\"<\/a><\/p>\n

None of the model predict negative NINO 3.4 SSTAs before JJA. But other than that, they sure are all over the place! Given the spread in projections, it might be fun to run a longer term JFM 2010 (January, February, March) Quatloo bets.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The data required to compute the “ASO” average El Nino bets are now in. As readers recall, at first I was going to wait for NOAA to publish the value. But when someone found the weekly values, I decreed that the rules were that I would compute my own ASO average based on the weekly … Continue reading El Nino Betting Pool: ASO NINO 3.4 Average.<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[49],"tags":[456,165,194],"class_list":["post-7903","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-betting","tag-betting","tag-el-nino","tag-quatloos"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7903","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7903"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7903\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7903"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7903"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7903"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}