{"id":9076,"date":"2010-01-30T09:21:01","date_gmt":"2010-01-30T15:21:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/?p=9076"},"modified":"2011-10-17T10:14:03","modified_gmt":"2011-10-17T16:14:03","slug":"hadcrut-december-down-from-november","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/2010\/hadcrut-december-down-from-november\/","title":{"rendered":"HadCrut December: Down from November."},"content":{"rendered":"

HadCrut December reported an monthly surface temperature anomalyof 0.407C; this is down 0.039C from their November anomaly. However, their update<\/a> page also includes a number of provisos. I’ve plotted surface temperature anomalies reported by both GISS and HadCrut along with the multi-model mean of A1B simulations since 1975 below; december values are highlighted:\"Comparison<\/a><\/p>\n

Next week, I’ll comment more, but for now note that despite presence of El Nino, <\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Observed HadCrut temperature anomalies (blue) remain below the multi-model mean projection (purple) and the trend computed since 1975 is lower. The HadCrut least squares trend computed starting Jan 2001 remains negative (-0.08C\/decade) but if positive if computed beginning in Jan 2000 (+0.03C\/decade). <\/li>\n
  2. The recent Hadley anomalies have been falling below the trend line computed starting 1975. Mathematically, this causes that computed trend since 1975 to decline slightly as more data arrive. <\/li>\n
  3. The overall trend since 1975 is positive for both observational sets. With respect to testing models, the question is: is the excess trend exhibited by models statistically significant? <\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    As many are aware, I’ve been wondering if the weather noise induced by El Nino was going to be able to drive any individual monthly temperature anomalies above the the multi-model mean projections. So far, it has not. Still, surface temperatures do lag El Nino, and El Nino was ripping in Nov. and early Dec. Satellite readings indicate January was hot. Maybe in January, we’ll see weather noise manage to break through the multi-model mean projections. Or not.<\/p>\n

    I guess I should set up a HadCRUT bet! <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    HadCrut December reported an monthly surface temperature anomalyof 0.407C; this is down 0.039C from their November anomaly. However, their update page also includes a number of provisos. I’ve plotted surface temperature anomalies reported by both GISS and HadCrut along with the multi-model mean of A1B simulations since 1975 below; december values are highlighted: Next week, … Continue reading HadCrut December: Down from November.<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[21,93],"class_list":["post-9076","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-data-comparisons","tag-gmst","tag-hadley"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9076","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9076"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9076\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9076"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9076"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9076"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}