It’s early days, but I propose we all whip out our various UAH forecasting tools and predict Monthly Mean Temperature Anomaly of the Lower Troposphere LT5.2 for Augus, 2009. As many know, this observational result is always first announced by Dr. Roy Spencer at his blog.
To log your guess projection, enter a value in the form and click submit.
Results are deleted when 2 months old to avoid taking my site down.
Details
- The poll ends at midnight August 17, 2009 as indicated on the clock on the server. It is unix time, but I don’t know if it’s California time or Greenwich mean time or…
- Enter a prediction and revise it later. For purposes of quatloo distribution, I will count the bet with the latest time stamp.
- Email addresses are used just in case people enter identical names. If you know your name is similar to someone else’s, consider making your screen name unique. For example, two frequent posters named Andrew have taken to using Andrew _FL or Andrew_KY to their names.
- Just in case some joker decides to enter other people’s names and emails and claim they guessed 1000C or -1000C for the temperature, I also log IP addresses.
- No prizes.
I have an idea for the quatloo distribution scheme, but I’d like to read other people’s ideas. I’d the scheme to distribute more quatloos to people who come closer to guessing the correct temperature and fewer to those who are further. The scheme must also be quatloo neutral (meaning that if the group bets a total of 10 quatloos, 10 quatloos are distributed among the “winners”. ) I want to let people who bet a larger number of quatloos win more quatloos and those who bet fewer quatloos win fewer. Other than that, I’m open to ideas.
At the end of the poll, I’ll report how the multi-commenter mean prediction compared to the actual UAH temperature.
Now, enter your projections and place your bets.
It appears to work!
Whoo hoo! 🙂
Out of curiosity, is there a reason you don’t have a contest for GISS? Since my UAH guess is bovine-based, I could try to work out a cheese metric for GISS…
I had just finished high school in ’69… you should have told me about the pool earlier.
Douggerel– No reason. I started UAH in June after watching Channel 5 as El Nino progressed. We guessed that over the three or four days before Roy posted the final value.
Once this has no bugs, we can have pools for many things. Ice. GISS. Point spread for the Bears-Packer game.
Lucia, it recorded my bet and projection. Are you going to have a look-up table link or something as more bets are made? After all, if Ryan keeps on winning or beating me, I might want to adjust my figures. I am a big beleiver in lumped parameters myself. As in, if I take enough lumps, I change my parameters. 😉
The bets are safely hidden in the database. I plan to write the subroutine to display the bets after the polls close. Then we can all watch and wait to see who is wins.
No! No! You can’t do this: “I plan to write the subroutine to display the bets after the polls close.”
Now I’m forced to develop a new model.
CoRev– Should I hide the results? Half the fun is watching to see who might win!
Processing Entry
The correct sum was 17; you entered 16.
I’m sorry Steve Hempell, you made a mistake filling out the form. If you are human, please try again.
But, but I thought it was climate math.
Hmmm, I guess then the correct answer would have been 18.
Oh, OK I’ll try again.
I wonder if you’d like to do a similar scheme to bet on the minimum arctic sea ice extent this year. You could have two categories, one for lowest extent and one for date of lowest extent.
I think you’d want to show the results on about October 1 as the minimum seems to occur sometime in September.
FrancisT– I’m planning that. I just want to make sure the script works before I run a second poll.
I’m in. Good on you, Lucia, for not restricting wager amounts to integers!
Terry– I thought about restricting wager amounts to intergers, but it was less work not to. Heh. 🙂
Anyway, I think it’s best to let people wager whatever they want provided it’s neither too small nor too large. I don’t want the ratio between the high and low to bee to high, but otherwise, I don’t care.
I wagered pi – so just in case it matters – even though I could only enter to the ten thousandth, kindly assume the rest.
/Time to go check the tomatoes and peppers I suppose, but apparently Chicago is ahead of Minneapolis.
I tried to wager Pi quatloos but I wrote “Pi” not 3.1459… and was told
So here at Rank Exploits it seems that Pi=1.
FrancisT di2.nu (Comment#17606)-There’s somewhere in the Bible where it basically says Pi=3
Can’t remember exactly though…
AH! 1 Kings 7:23 or 2 Chronicles 4:2 say that the measurements of a basin in front of the Temple of Jerusalem was diameter 10 cubits, circumference 30 cubits.
Slightly better is the estimate of bill # 246 of the 1897 Indiana General Assembly-which attempted to establish, by legislative fiat, a method for squaring the circle (this is fifteen years after it was proven impossible!) and says “the ratio of the diameter and circumference is as five-fourths to four” or 3.2
Hehe, and you thought modern politicians were crazy…
Hmmm… I could code in “Pi” as an entry.
How do I revise my guess? Do I just re-submit a new one?
Aslak– Just resubmit. I think I should add a feature to let you check your entry by entering your email too. That way, people can double check in case they forgot.
hmmm
Had to rely on a simple hunch on this one 🙁 Too few “reliable” entries to watch and then employ my cherished “gas-station-localization-principle” for the estimate 🙂
Cassanders
In Cod we trust
Cassanders– I’ve written a script so you can’t use your strategy. People guesses are concealed until after the poll closes!
Well seeing as Cassanders can’t gas station localise me I’m going ahead and putting in a guess.