All the surface temperature anomalies are in for August 2009. Trends since 1990 and 2001 are shown below and compared to the multi-model mean trend from the AR4:
As many are aware, both Hadley and NOAA reported August anomalies exceeded July anomalies. Specifically:
- Hadley reported 0.532C up from 0.499 in July. NOAA reported 0.6164C up from 0.5622C in July. (GISS reported 0.51C down from 0.63C in July.)
- All three values are lower than August 1998 values. Back in 1998, the reported values were 0.630 C, 0.644C and 0.670C for GISS, Hadley and NOAA respectively.
- The individual monthly temperature readings are remain below the curve of the multi-model mean projections under the A1B scenario. Maybe next month El Nino will push them above the projection curve.
Trends continue to be low relative to AR4 trends associated with the A1B projections. Least squares trends are
- Since 2001 the least squares trends are -0.10 C/century, -0.90 C/century and -0.37 C/century for GISS, Hadley and NOAA respectively. The multimodel mean trends for AR4 runs forced with the A1B scenarios were +2.7 C/century and 2.4 C/century for models forced with and without volcanic aerosols respectively. These fall well outside the redcorrected ±95% confidence interval for the mean trend associated with the earth’s weather noise.
- Since 1990 the least squares trends are 1.79 C/century, 1.67 C/century 1.67 C/century for GISS, Hadley and NOAA respectively. The multimodel mean trends for AR4 runs forced with the A1B scenarios were +2.9 C/century and 2.5 C/century for models forced with and without volcanic aerosols respectively. These fall well outside the red-corrected ±95% confidence interval for the mean trend associated with the earth’s weather noise. The trends for models forced by volcanoes fall well outside the red-corrected 95% confidence intervals for the earth’s temperature time series. Runs not forced by volcanic aerosols from Pinatubo exhibit lower trends than those forced with volcanic aerosols; their trends are not inconsistent with the earth’s temperature trends at 95% confidence. (The earth did experience the eruption due to Pinatubo.)
The monthly temperatures still remain below the curves associated with the multi-model mean projections where they have been since mid-2007. Maybe next month, El Nino will finally push the temperature above the multi-model mean projections!
Hi Lucia –
Has anyone checked the trends in UAH/RSS vs the models? Also, I believe Dr. Pielke Sr, Jr. et al published a paper showing that the trends for NCDC et al are likely overstated due to boundary condition measurement issues.
Has anyone plotted their revised views vs. the models? I believe they don’t plot out a trend, just show an overestimation bias.
Sounds like an interesting project, but one for which I lack the technical skills.
JK–Chad is computing the trends in the troposphere. It’s a lot of work. You can check out his blog here.
Look how much earlier re-freeze has started from AGW mates BTW http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.365.jpg
You be not surprised by a normal NH ice by 2010-2011 through whole year! (ol pirate english) haha
Lucia,
Could you use a different color palette? To my old eyes they sort of blur together.
Barry–
I chose blue and yellow because someone with red/green color blindness complained about that color scheme and recommended blue/yellow! I find red/green easier to see myself.
I’m not quite sure what to do on this whole color scheme issue.
Lucia,
It’s sort of a contrast problem. How about red/blue or magenta/cyan? Basically something darker would be more readable IMO.
I worked on the development of the NEXRAD weather radar and the color palette probably caused more discussion than anything else.
Barry–
I have trouble with the yellow too!
The problem with red is then I can’t use green. I used “blue & green” for the observations. I assume magenta has similar problems to “red”.
I already substitute darker colors than the excel defaults.
It’s a dilemma.
Lucia-
Here’s a possible kludge that would provide a partial solution. Could you provide a link to the excel file? Then the viewer could download it and change the colors ect. themselves. Of course that would mean the user would need excel but there are freeware options to read excel files I think. Would that be too much trouble/bandwidth?
I know this is weather, not climate, but here in North Wales (UK) we have had a pretty miserable August – indeed summer.
Anecdotal evidence such as this from posters on other blogs seems to reveal that many, many individuals actual experience is at variance with the supposed trends shown by GISS, Hadcrut et al.
I’m beginning to wonder if it is REALLY possible to measure global temperature at all?
Sorry if this comes through as a repeat but something/nothing happened to my earlier post.
I know this is weather, not climate, but here in North Wales (UK) we have had a fairly miserable August – indeed summer.
From anecdotal evidence such as this across a number of blogs, it seems that many individuals actual experience is at variance with what GISS, Hadcrut etc are telling us.
I am beginning to wonder if it is ACTUALLY possible to measure global temperature?
Dave — here in Aust we have bad a much warmer than average winter and early spring so (New) South Wales proabaly balances (old) North Wales