RSS Temperature Anomaly Down to 0.075C

I expected the RSS temperature anomaly to report higher in June than May: I was wrong. RSS is down a smidge from 0.090C in May to 0.075C in June. This RSS temperature is warmer than 0.063C recorded in June 2008, and -0.106C recorded in June 1999, but cooler than all other June’s in the previous 10 years.

I plotted trends for both UAH and RSS since January 2001 (the year I prefer as a baseline) and since January 2000. Both are shown below.
Above, you can see that the least squares fits to both UAH and RSS have negative trends since 2001. Uncertainty intervals computed using a correction for ‘red noise’ based on data since 2001 indicates the nominal positive trend for the earth’s surface) of +2C/century falls outside the 95% confidence intervals; this means that we would reject a hypothesis that the trend for the lower troposphere is 2C/century. (Caveat: +2C/century may not apply to the troposphere.)

Above you can see that least squares fit to both UAH and RSS are also negative since 2000, but with smaller magnitudes than trends since 2001. For this case, tests based on RSS would indicate the nominal trend of 2C/century falls outside the confidence intervals for RSS, and would be rejected based on that particular set of data. However, that trend remains inside the confidence intervals for UAH.

Hat tip: Greg Meurer for letting me know!

19 thoughts on “RSS Temperature Anomaly Down to 0.075C”

As per my Comment#15200) June 24th, 2009 at 11:40 pm

Initial (raw) projections, and slopes
Hadley 0.385; 0.407
GISS 0.40; 0.602
RSS 0.113; 0.922

delta = 0.075 – 0.113 = -0.038
Hadley and GISS projections for June are as follows…

Hadley
====
0.385 – 0.038 * 0.407 / 0.922 = 0.368

GISS
===
0.40 – 0.038 * 0.602 / 0.922 = 0.38

To repeat
Hadley 0.368
GISS 0.38

Checked and re-checked umpteen times, because I have this weird tendancy to make typos such as “Gadley and HISS”. I hesitate to stick my neck out with a prediction that puts Hadley almost equal to GISS. But then my regression would be useless if I had to hand adjust it all the time. Either it works or it doesn’t, and this will be an acid test for it.

This RSS temperature is warmer than 0.063C recorded in June 2009,

Hi Lucia – did you mean June 2008 in that sentence?

Terry–Yes. That’s what happens when I try to type fast so I have a chance to beat Anthony as the “first” to report anything. 🙂

Does this mean you are moving toward the chilly side of lukewarm?

How about a top ten list:
Real world effects of a lower June RSS number –

10} Popcicle is statisticly a little less runny.

9} Head freeze kicks in 0.075 sec sooner after biting.

8} ok I only had the popcicle thing.
Feel free to fill in the last eight.

Thought of another one.
8} thirty six days since last 7/11 Slurpie Machine break down.

7} Al Gore downgrades moral urgency of the war on CO2 – now placed third behind the war on Capitalism, and war on healthcare, but still a smidgeon above killing Nazis.

6} Proof positive that the Apollo moon landings were filmed on a set in Arizona.

5} Prof James Hansen revises estimate of Waxman-Markey bill from monsterous absurdity to villianous asininity.

4} still not low enough for Michael Mann to admit Viking settlement of Greenland during what most of the world mistakenly used to refer to as the Medieval Warm Period. (not really an effect since nothing changed – probably shouldn’t be on this list – who let that cat in here?)

3) Gavin Schmidt interviews for a postion as a financial statistical modeler with AIG.

Lucia,
Do you provide similar analyses for the entire sattelite period?

2) Rahmstorf has to go to M=16

David–
I think he’s going to still like M=15 next year (this year isn’t warm, but it also isn’t cold.) El Nino is hitting, and even if it’s mild, Rahmstorf won’t feel the need to switch to M=17 in 2011; in fact, he’ll be wishing he could go back to M=11.

If he’s still testing the TAR in 2012, and the temperatures don’t warm enough, I think he may jump from M=15 to M=18 in one fell swoop. That will put beginning of the linear extrapolation used to guess future data right back into the temperature dip caused by Pinatubo. That’s what expanding these filters is doing.