Betting

UAH 0.603C: Hottest September in Record

18 Comments

Roy Spencer posted the September UAH TLT temperature anomaly: 0.603C. That’s up from August’s anomaly of 0.511C making this the hottest September in the UAH record. The earth has transitioned from El Nino to La Nina, so I think many people will be surprised by this jump in the anomaly. (No one betting expected an uptick of this magnitude).

Here are monthly anomalies with all September anomalies circled:


Squinting at the graph you can see:

  • September 2010 is the 6th hottest month in the UAH record.
  • September 2010 is the hottest September in the UAH record.
  • September 2010 is the 3rd hottest recorded for 2010.

Last month, I wrote,

I’d anticipated the 12 month average would begin a steady decline until the start of the next El Nino. But since that appears to be back in play, I’ll show the 12 month average in this months UAH post:

Well, with the jump in temperature, that record is still in play as you can see in the month of 12-month averages for UAH which continued to rise because the recorded value for September 2010 exceeded the value recorded in 2009:


(Note– despite the apple/oranges element of comparing surface temps to UAH, the multi-model mean for A1B is shown. Both observations and projections are use the Jan 1980-Dec 1999 baseline.)

What of next month? Seems pretty hard to predict to me. I’ll post the betting script tomorrow.
So, who won the quatloos?
No one guessed UAH would jump this high. So, the quatloos go to the bettor who entered the highest temperature. That is: Michael Hauber who bet 0.551C.

Winnings in Quatloos for UAH TTL September, 2010 Predictions.
Rank Name Prediction (C) Bet Won
Gross Net
— Observed 0.603 (C)
1 Michael Hauber 0.551 5 72.092 67.092
2 pdjakow 0.526 5 56.808 51.808
3 David 0.514 2 0 -2
4 jack mosevich 0.511 3 0 -3
5 enSKog 0.511 3 0 -3
6 simon.s 0.498 5 0 -5
7 SteveF 0.496 4 0 -4
8 Jeff Id 0.49 5 0 -5
9 John F. Pittman 0.49 3 0 -3
10 S Basinger 0.48 5 0 -5
11 Hoi Polloi 0.479 5 0 -5
12 AMac 0.479 2 0 -2
13 Robert Leyland 0.478 4 0 -4
14 Pavel Panenka 0.475 3 0 -3
15 steve 0.47 1 0 -1
16 eddieo 0.467 5 0 -5
17 Boris 0.459 4.9 0 -4.9
18 hmccard 0.455 2 0 -2
19 MikeP 0.451 4 0 -4
20 Jon P 0.44 5 0 -5
21 Don B 0.44 4 0 -4
22 Lance Appleby 0.431 3 0 -3
23 Hal 0.43 5 0 -5
24 denny 0.43 4 0 -4
25 MarcH 0.43 5 0 -5
26 Garth Bedard 0.424 3.5 0 -3.5
27 Garth Bedard 0.424 4 0 -4
28 KÃ¥re Kristiansen 0.422 4 0 -4
29 Neven 0.413 4 0 -4
30 Joe L. 0.411 3 0 -3
31 Don B 0.39 4 0 -4
32 Pieter 0.386 3 0 -3
33 Chuck L 0.362 4 0 -4
34 Troy_CA 0.36 3 0 -3
35 Tim W. 0.351 3 0 -3
36 Twawkit 0.31 1 0 -1
37 Freezedried 0.301 3 0 -3

The net winnings for each member of the ensemble will be added to their accounts.

18 thoughts on “UAH 0.603C: Hottest September in Record”

  2. via sod:

    Layman Lurker (Comment#52377) September 15th, 2010 at 11:05 am
    Even though the release of 5.3 has removed much of the seasonal discrepencies between RSS and UAH, according to the monthly means of RSS and UAH5.3 there still remains some seasonal tendancies (for both data sets). These tendancies favour +RSS from the end of May to the end of August, then swing to +UAH from Sept to the end of Dec. Sod, I’ll bet you some quatloos that UAH (LT) is higher then RSS for September.

    Somebody did call this one right!

    Satellite monthly records (e.g., “hottest September”) are of course mostly of trivia value because of the problems with getting the seasonal adjustment right in the satellite reconstructions as well as for some technical signal processing reasons (aliasing issues, you need to run an antialias filter before comparing e.g., Septembers).

    You need to look at e.g.13-month running averages (antialias filter, 13-month is following James Hansen here) if you want a more realistic test. Even there we have a new record: The 13-month average is now February, 2010 at 0.509°C, beating out the old record of June, 1998 at 0.501°C.

    Is that 0.008°C/decade? (J/K)

  7. I’ve been tracking the Aqua-5 channel against 2002 and 2005. My eyeball correlator sees a decent match. Wonder if the the second week of October (8-14) will see a spike…?

  8. with the plunging globlal SST’s (now negative anomaly)

    I should clarify that SST’s are negative according to AMSR-E.

  9. This is beyond infantile… you put a graph from 1980 to now and you say earth’s temperatures are rising. You will probably get the gist of what I said now when you are about 70 years of age. I’ll leave it at that

  11. My second guess did not erase the first one, and cost me an extra 4 quatloos, which I can not afford to lose in these troubled times.

    I am 95% certain I used the same email address, although maybe not the same computer.

  14. Oh NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO… We’re all going to boil… then explode like the little kids in the 10:10 video

  15. You are right Ron. You should go over to Spencer’s blog and ask him about that. Do you know anything about how aqua does it’s orbit correction?

  16. and this
    http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/ go to 600 mb massive one time drop in global temps occuring and massive increase in NH ice probably one of the fastest yet it go to DMI ice extent) means nothing zilch, 0, nada etc,. Or I would not say it means anything in climate terms but wait till a warmista sees it rising again LOL…. to them it does mean something when it rises temp or melts ice hahaha

  18. Ron Broberg, the channel 5 graph at the Discover web site may be beggining to make it’s October upward adjustment (consistent with other years as you observed).

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