Opening a new thread because the old one will close.
Today, I will be absorbed trying to help a kid who did not study all semester try to dig himself out of a hole. It’s a intro to thermofluids class. (Combined thermo, a little fluids, a little heat transfer.)
Example conversation:
“Let’s look at this problem on a Rankine cycle.”
We read the problem. (a) He needs to create a T-s diagram and a flow diagram.
His first issue: doesn’t know what a T-s diagram is. Next, “Do you know what entropy is?” “No.”
Similar answers to “Do you remember the first law of thermodynamics?” “Have you used the steam tables before?”
He was slightly less pathetic on heat transfer. Slightly.
Honestly, he is almost certainly so going to fail…..
Open thread: continue on whatever you like.
Manual ping back:
https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2023/03/13/the-origins-debate/#comment-218454 — Moderation Tally: 9 words 109 characters.
Lucia:
Tom Scharf:
As a representative of the male heterosexual deplorables, I go with Tom’s view. Sex has been in advertising and entertainment for all the history of advertising and entertainment. I am a little afraid for the time when sexy women are no longer a thing.
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Lucia, your qualification of “a certain number of beer drinkers” sounds a lot like “and some of them are fine people.” I know, that’s not funny. 🙁
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You wanted me to point to a specific weakness of Trump. He speaks off the cuff about very sensitive issues on occasion. He could have learned when he came down the escalator and said:
I highlighted the part that proves a paid political writer did not compose it for him. The thing is he has delivered wonderful speeches. I think his state of the unions are among the best ever given. He just needs to accept their help more often, like all the time.
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Angech:
That is a very good projection. Ideally Trump would join DeSantis and others in attacking Biden and Newsom (an not each other) until Trump is taken down by the last arrow, in which time he could dramatically reach up and pass the sword to DeSantis with his full blessing. But this is unlikely because we know Trump does not like to accept defeat. But if it happened there should be a lot of apologies from conservatives who said he did everything for himself and not the country.
Lucia,
I just remembered an anecdote. A while back we had a housekeeper who was a young lady from Yugoslavia. She would often take a big sniff of my bread fermenting in the proofer and declare: “We call beer liquid bread.” There actually is an ancient beer formula starting with old bread.
“Honestly, he is almost certainly so going to fail….”
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A little bit on the net u tube video’s etc re Rankine cycle means he could back up your teaching with them as reviews if he was interested to do so.
Might be a slight bit of extra outside help.
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Is he university level?
Certainly seems a level above my senior High School physics in Australia.
–
Thank you for raising a science topic and could you expand on it if he continues.
Very well done primer on Ukraine air defense and Russian counters
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Anatomy of MIM-104 Patriot Destruction + Primer on Kinzhal Hypersonic Missile
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/anatomy-of-mim-104-patriot-destruction?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1351274&post_id=122002994&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email
Russell: “The Coors commercial starts off by saying that women were the first brewers of beer in ancient times.”
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Unless I’m remembering it wrong, it pulled a sleight of hand here and said “among the first”.
Dave,
Yes, I missed that. Tricky! Plain janes tasting compost, an interesting way to sell beer.
Ron,
You are hilarious. You can’t manage say something bad about Trump without immediately reversing it without saying throwing in good things to negate what you wrote!
angech,
Not enough time left for him to do that. Honestly, reading the book during the semester would have helped him. And being willing to do problems himself. He’s watching work to much.
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Yes. In England.
There are levels of achievement that come through almost mindless repetition of basic subject matter and then something clicks and one can go up a level.
If one is smart enough or lucky enough.
I wrote my maths and physics text books out long hand during the year and re read problems right up until the exam door.
But then that was pre Uni and my social skills were not up to scratch.
Lucia:
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Actually, my good thing was an if statement. So it remains to be seen if Angech’s projection will come to pass and my hope that Trump will be graceful in his fall. Most are predicting the opposite on him (an independent run) and justifying preemptive disdain.
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Back to Trump’s presidential run announcement press conference in 2015. I think he was likely misquoted there. He first lists things being brought over the Mexican border then switches from crime to criminal groups, rapists, for example. He then he qualifies with also fine people. The quote should be “there are rapists”, not “they’re rapists,” the later smearing all border crossers.
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I think this a perfect example of why politicians (and even bloggers) need to be careful not to use loaded words because opponents will easily be tempted to twist them back as ammunition against them. Then the discussion is diluted with the defensive clarification, which the opponent can simply not acknowledge.
Ron
No “if” in here:
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What your statement amounts to is sometimes a few things he says are awkward, but really, he is a g-uh-reat! speaker.
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Honestly, you really can’t get into identifying his weaknesses.
Ron
And now you are trying to decree he didn’t even do the ‘not so hot’ thing you identified as a weak thing!
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You seriously cannot bring yourself to find anything bad about him. Even in a thread where you claim to do it, within a few comments, you are explaining why it wasn’t bad!
“…that Trump will be graceful in his fall”
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Paleez! Trump doesn’t have a graceful cell in his whole body. If he is not the Republican candidate, he will run as a third party candidate and ensure 4 more years of an incontinent, demented criminal as president…. or worse!
According to this, DeSantis ought to announce his run within the next couple of weeks. I hope polls turn and Republicans decide DeSantis is the guy, but. Party of Stupid and all that, seldom failing to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
DaveJr
If so (and I bet it’s likely), that’s hilarious. Let’s extend it “Men and women were among the first”. “Men, women, children and martians were among the first…”
Mens version…..
Happy Vyshyvanka Day! It’s a traditional Ukrainian embroidered shirt, worn by both men and women.
Image:
https://twitter.com/aliashukua/status/1659092418220761088?s=61&t=q3_InP1nXWdPIXqj8656mQ
Ladies version…
Happy Vyshyvanka Day
Vyshyvanka, the traditional embroidered shirt, is a symbol of national identity. But it’s more than just attire, it’s a language, that tells a story, rooted deep in Ukrainian history.
https://twitter.com/maria_drutska/status/1659118376286035968?s=61&t=q3_InP1nXWdPIXqj8656mQ
I asked one of my kids about the lesser evil, unsurprisingly he shared my opinion about it. It tickled me that he gave me a quote from one of The Witcher books though (link here) :
Bud Light sales are still way down, and the stock price has slipped to $58 (from $66.67 on April 3): https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ab-inbev-stock-drops-as-analysts-look-for-stabilization-in-bud-light-sales-declines-181740395.html
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The stock price has dropped enough that managers are probably starting to get nervous about the future. If it drops to $50 (a market cap loss of about $24 billion since early April), I expect there will be “some management changes” at the US based part of the company. The company generates only a modest fraction of total profits from US sales, so further drops in stock price may not happen, but I bet it is scary times at Bud.
And in another surprising development ( 😉 )(https://townhall.com//tipsheet/scottmorefield/2023/05/17/poll-shows-devastating-implications-for-down-ballot-republicans-in-a-trump-biden-rematch-n2623410?bcid=b025044c2973875904922828c283aeb1a2c6c9ae4eeb704e8ce92e3613fda2f7&recip=28435348) Trump may cause down-ballot losses for Republicans and lose to Biden by 9% of total votes.
Mark bofill,
Yeah… You often see demagogues present questions like “Would you rather eat dog shit or chicken shit?” Worse, they’ll think picking one or the other shows “something”.
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The correct answer is “neither”.
Oh no, internal drama in Russia…..The Russian scientists who developed the Kinshal hypersonic missile have been sent to a gulag.
“Russian scientists, experts in hypersonic technology, arrested for treason”
“In an open letter published on Monday, Russian scientists protested the academics’ arrest, claiming the incidents had spread fear and warning weapons research could “collapse” as a result.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/05/17/russia-scientists-treason-hypersonic/
In related news, Ukraine claims to have shot down 29 of 30 missiles that Russia fired at Ukrainian cities last night. They claim to have hit every one of the 18 aimed at Kyiv.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ukraine-shoots-down-29-30-missiles-russia-launches-yet-another-barrage-kyiv
I guess maybe the Kremlin had believed the hype about the hypersonic missiles being unstoppable and retaliated against the scientists who built them.
Lucia,
I don’t presume to tell people they are wrong if they want to pick a lesser evil. Personally I prefer to look for some alternative to choosing things I know are evil. I don’t always succeed in finding alternatives, but. We can only do what we can do in the end.
mark bofill (Comment #221385): “Evil is Evil. Lesser, greater, middling… Makes no difference.”
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Evil, like most English words, has multiple meanings. There is certainly a sense in which that quote is true. But that is not what is usually meant by “the lesser of two evils”. Here an example of usage given by the Cambridge English Dictionary:
https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/lesser-of-two-evils
Mike,
Okay. So what?
[Edit: We were talking about this in the context of voting or not voting for political candidates that don’t measure up to various standards. Are you suggesting that the usage of the expression that implies moral valence is inappropriate in this instance? Or are you saying something else?]
I rather think it is the correct usage, the more literal interpretation in this case. Obviously politicians are well positioned to affect law and policy and laws and policies (IMO) can be good, evil, or have no moral valence at all depending on what they are. Voting for a politician in my view can literally be a good or evil act, although it is not necessarily a good or evil act. This is just my view though.
[Edit: I’m not going anywhere with this, just talking. Maybe I misunderstood and you’re just doing the same Mike. If so, sorry!]
I know I must be going insane. But this distinction reminds me of the movie ‘The Three Amigos’ here:
Senility perhaps, although I’m still a little young for that. But we can use the expression [lesser of two evils] to literally refer to actual evil I think. Sometimes our El Guapo is ‘the actual’ El Guapo!
Okay. I’ll go sit in the corner for abit.
mark bofill,
I am strongly disinclined to use the word “evil”, in its strongest sense, to describe any politician. It seems to me that if a truly evil person were to become President, then armed insurrection would not only be justified, it might be morally required.
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Politicians can certainly be harmful, to both individuals and to the country as a whole. IMO, Biden is probably the most harmful president we have ever had. Given a choice between two people who would be harmful, It is appropriate to vote for the one who would be less harmful.
So you don’t think this particular bandito looks like the ‘actual’ El Guapo huh. I’m not sure I agree. I’ll think about it. Thanks though.
Mike,
Look, I don’t want to hassle you. I said everybody ought to do what their own conscience dictates and I mean that, and you definitely ought to do what you believe is right when it comes to your vote, no question in my mind. Just for the sake of discussion and curiosity, do you think it’s never appropriate to protest, so to speak, poor quality choices by not voting? Follow up: Not even when one’s vote doesn’t actually practically make any difference as is the case in non swing states?
I don’t ‘get’ why it’s so important that I vote for somebody when my vote doesn’t actually even make the slightest bit of difference in my state.
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[Edit: Honestly, I don’t think this is really about who we vote for. I think this is about who we support. It doesn’t actually matter who I vote for [in Alabama]. It matters more who I support.]
There’s been a bit of rash of history rewriting to include women in there, I defy you to go look at period photos of the NASA moon missions with group photos of engineers and technicians and it’s going to be 99% youngish white men. What I’m not saying is that this is the way it should have been, or that it didn’t involve some overt or hidden prejudice. I’m saying that this is the way it factually was, and you can’t rewrite history to the way people wanted it to be today.
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So highlight the small portion of valuable jobs the women did if you want, but you can’t pretend it was something different. It goes both ways, feel free to highlight the epic failures large groups of predominantly white men accomplished, WWII comes to mind.
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Women are still only 22% of engineering graduates. There are lots of reasons stated for this, but it’s a bit mysterious.
Does anyone want to speculate on why DeSantis isn’t running stronger in the polls? My first thought is that he’s simply not a showman in any sense, very dry and matter of fact. Trump is a much better entertainer and may be getting a sympathy bounce with all the Twitter files and dual system of justice news.
DeSantis may not be a showman. Also, because of his attack on Disney, some may think he’s anti-business.
mark bofill (Comment #221397)
” I don’t ‘get’ why it’s so important that I vote for somebody when my vote doesn’t actually even make the slightest bit of difference in my state.”
_________
True, but if only those who feel strongly vote, I’m not sure that’s best. Perhaps you would feel different if you lived where races were close.
Long time no see Max. Hope life has been treating you well.
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Actually, I can’t remember the last time I didn’t vote. It might be that I haven’t failed to vote in a Presidential election ever [uhm. Since I’ve been eligible to vote, is what I mean of course]. I should note, I’m only really talking about Presidential elections here, and particularly the upcoming 2024. I vote in my local elections and take that somewhat more seriously, since my vote counts a lot more heavily there. On the downside, I can’t always differentiate local folks very well – sometimes I come up empty trying to research differences.
Dave,
I’m hoping that DeSantis hasn’t even officially entered the race has something to do with it. Hoping, but not really believing. I think it’s just that most voters don’t care that much. I’m sure they all know all about Trump. Probably lots of them have never heard of DeSantis, or have barely heard of him.
I don’t really know though.
mark bofill (Comment #221397): “do you think it’s never appropriate to protest, so to speak, poor quality choices by not voting? Follow up: Not even when one’s vote doesn’t actually practically make any difference as is the case in non swing states?”
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What matters to me is not who I vote for. What matters is who ends up in office. So no, I don’t believe in a “protest vote”. There are more effective ways to protest. Voting is for making a decision.
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Why vote at all? One vote won’t make a difference. I reject that. Instead, I vote as if my vote will end up deciding the election. I don’t see an option that does not amount to giving up.
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I would vote for a third party candidate if and only if I think the best outcome would be for that person to win.
Thanks Mike.
Most people have not thought about the primaries. They don’t know much about DeSantis. What they do know is that they like Trump’s policies and the fact that he will fight for them. They want someone who will do that. So when asked, they say “Trump”. That does not mean that they can’t be convinced to support someone else.
Trump is picking up all the “let’s burn it to the ground” vote, and there is a lot of that I think. Whatever you want to call it, Trump has a monopoly on the anti-establishment type vote and everyone else just splits the rest. It’s similar to Fox News having a huge market share and not being a great product. They just don’t have competitors. I would think DeSantis would get a bunch of the “but I want a sane Trump” vote, but so far I am wrong. There is still a lot of time left.
This is big.
CNN: US signals to allies it won’t block their export of F-16 jets to Ukraine
I expect the floodgates to open up. EU countries have been transitioning from F-16 to F-35 for some time. It has led to a lot of F-16s going to surplus because the US controls their disposition and prohibits most resales. The Netherlands and the UK have been leading the parade to send F-16s to Ukraine and Biden has been blocking it. Just like hundreds of spare main battle tanks suddenly were sent to Ukraine after the US pledged to send a few Abrams tanks. This may also spur more transitions and sales of new F-35s since 3,000 F-16s are still in service in 25 countries. Although these F-16s are inferior to the F-35s I have read that they are more than a match for the Russian air force, particularly when armed with Western missiles and directed by NATO airborne and satellite systems.
Mike and Mark, Among the “burn it down” conservative crowd, almost everyone has heard of DeSantis as he has had a rather big footprint in conservative media for several years. I’ve seen literally hundreds of articles on him and his expert demolition of reporters and the media, his battle with Disney, and his reforms of Florida schools and universities. However, it could be that most voters aren’t paying attention and don’t read things like Townhall.
I could easily vote for him as he has proven himself to possess the Teddy Roosevelt dominating personality and the will to fight hard. My only reservation is would he really clean out the deep state? I am very confident Trump would because he hates these people with a passion. Also DeSantis has had a strong Republican majority in the Florida Legislature, so his job has been vastly easier than Trump’s was. In 2024, Republicans might take the Senate but I suspect it will be closely divided or stay Democrat. Trump has a proven track record of getting things done even with a hostile Congress. He for example built the wall (mostly done), did the tariff thing with Mexico that was a breakthrough, did the Abraham accords, pulled out of the Iran deal, etc.
Russell, I fear that f-16’s to Ukraine is not a good idea. The Russians will interpret it as aggression as these planes could strike deep into Russia. Who knows what might happen if Zelenski sees that he cannot get Crimea without an escalation or if Putin preemptively strikes the F16 bases maybe with tactical nucs or God forbid strikes a NATA F-16 base. This neocon triumphalism is a very easy trap for arm chair generals to fall into. It always has been and still is a deeply immoral position. Hundreds of thousands of people are dying.
David,
In my view, ‘clean out the deep state’ is like ‘drain the swamp’. It’s a fine slogan that doesn’t actually amount to anything. How do I measure how well somebody is doing at this task? What exactly do I expect somebody to do to accomplish this? Who precisely constitutes the deep state? Is Christoper Wray part of the deep state? Trump appointed him. I don’t think any of these are rhetorical questions, rather, these are questions without any satisfactory answers and that there are no satisfactory answers illustrates that the ‘deep state’ isn’t going anywhere, in my view.
If our bureaucracies are too powerful, Congress and the courts I’d think would be the agents to fix that.
It wasn’t Barrack Obama’s ATF that banned bump stocks in an outrageous and pointless overreach of their authority. It wasn’t Joe Biden’s ATF either. That happened under the Orange Mans watch. Did somebody’s head roll for it? Ridiculous, Trump was the guy who demanded the ATF implement the ban! And it is completely without legal basis; there is a legal definition specifying what a machine gun is, and a bump stock is not a machine gun.
Nobody gives a crap about bump stocks including me. I do care about illegal bureaucratic overreach. I think people delude themselves if they think Trump cares about it though. He just exploits your gullibility, much as left wing politicians do with their constituents with race and social justice issues.
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[Edit: The TLDR version is this – Trump cares about draining the swamp or fighting the deep state in the same way he cares about preserving the Constitution. Which is to say, he cares only in the imagination of his supporters.]
The Zelenskyy whirlwind diplomatic tour continues …. G7 and the Arab world. Putin and Russia are international pariahs.
“Ukraine’s Zelenskyy makes surprise visit to Saudi Arabia
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrives in the kingdom where Arab leaders are holding a regional summit.”
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/19/ukraines-zelenskyy-makes-surprise-visit-to-saudi-arabia
“Japan rushing to receive Zelenskyy at G7 Hiroshima Summit guest”
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20230519_47/
David Young
“Hundreds of thousands of people are dying.“
And it will stop the day Russia is ousted from the territory it tried to steal from a small unaggressive neighbor. The other option, letting the large aggressor nation keep what it stole is appeasement.
“if Putin preemptively strikes the F16 bases maybe with tactical nucs or God forbid strikes a NATA F-16 base.”
Yes, escalation by NATO risks escalation by Russia. It becomes increasingly likely as Russia nears facing a humiliating defeat at the hand of a weaker neighbor and Russia has a reputation for overkill. What is your solution? Let him keep his ill gotten gains and hope for goodwill from Russia?
marc bofill,
The ‘deep state’ reminds me a bit of the old concept of “regulatory capture”, where a regulated industry manages to place many allies within the regulatory bureaucracy, allies who keep regulations favorable for the regulated industry. What he have now is a bureaucracy which has been captured by career ‘professionals’; they no longer always serve the interests of elected politicians, nor even the interests of voters. They mostly serve their own interests, both career and political (eg the ‘insurance policy’ in case Trump won election). Since the bureaucracy is overwhelmingly biased toward the policies of the left, it is essentially regulatory capture by Democrats.
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There are ways to reduce this capture of policy by Democrats, but it would require rather drastic changes in civil service laws to make many more bureaucrats directly beholden to elected officials and subject to immediate firing. It will not happen unless Republicans gained 60 seats in the Senate, a majority in the house, and the White House. I don’t see that happening in my lifetime, if ever. Republicans simply will not focus on the kinds of sensible policies which would allow that.
Biden -12.2 in real clear politics.
Looks like the start of a very deep slide over the next 3 weeks
Debt ceilings woes made Obama look good but not sure if border and Hunter and Durham woes will stick.
Predict – 16 in 3 weeks.
David Young (Comment #221409): “My only reservation is would he really clean out the deep state? I am very confident Trump would because he hates these people with a passion.”
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Cleaning out the Deep State is a long term project that will require a great deal of subtlety. Not Trump’s strengths. Passion will only get in the way.
David Young
I’m confident Trump will continue to fail to “clean out the deep state”, just as he failed to clean it out before.
Precisely. And the people who use the slogan actually want the need for continued draining or cleaning to exist perpetually. It justifies their existence. So they are incapable of actually doing it.
Steve,
I agree with you. I suspect your observation about ‘bureaucratic capture’ by the Democrats is accurate and I agree that Congress would be the place to start fixing that. Of course they will not do so (pass laws to permit elected officials to rein in bureaucrats), I agree with you there as well.
I would like them reined in. I don’t want right leaning bureaucratic capture instead of left wing bureaucratic capture. I’m not holding my breath, because I don’t think it’s anyone’s priority anytime soon.
angech,
I doubt in matters how much Biden is underwater on approval; a clear majority have recognized his many failings and terrible policies since he bungled the Afghanistan withdrawal. His incompetence and crazy policies will keep him with strongly negative approval.
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The only thing that matters is whether or not Biden can reach 270 electoral votes in 2024, and that is where Trump is a big problem: too many people will never vote for him, no matter his opponent. If you count up the states that are permanently out reach for Trump, Biden is not far from 270 before the campaign starts, and Trump has to win nearly every one of the potentially competitive states to have a chance. Any normal Republican candidate could easily do that, since voters know Biden is demented and corrupt. But not Trump; he can’t stop himself from the behaviors than make him loathed by so many. Biden could have the competence to a potted house plant, and Trump will still likely lose. I find it all terribly discouraging.
Speaking of ideological capture…
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FBI says it won’t release Jan 6 surveillance video because it would show too many undercover government agents and informants
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The FBI whistleblowers who testified before Congress today are not actually whistleblowers, say the FBI and Democrats. Rather, they are disloyal Americans who undermined investigations into the January 6, 2021 riot at the Capitol Building in Washington, D.C.
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“My [Republican] colleagues have brought in these former agents, men who lost their security clearances because they were a threat to our national security,” said Del. Stacey Plaskett (D-V.I.), the ranking member of the House weaponization subcommittee. “Who out of malice or ignorance or both have put partisan agenda above the oath they swore to serve this country.”
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But there is no evidence that any of the FBI whistleblowers are or were ever a threat to national security. One of them, Marcus Allen, won two medals fighting in Iraq and Kuwait. Another, Garret O’Boyle, served in the Army in Iraq, worked as a police officer, and graduated with honors in criminology and law.
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Democrats pointed out that the FBI had revoked the security clearances of two whistleblowers, Allen, and Steve Friend, earlier this month. That news came in a letter that Christopher Dunham, the acting assistant director of the FBI, sent to the House Judiciary Committee last night.
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The FBI claimed that Allen “expressed sympathy for persons or organizations that advocate, threaten, or use force or violence, or use any other illegal or unconstitutional means, in an effort to prevent federal government personnel from performing their official duties.”
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But neither FBI nor Democrats presented evidence that Allen, Friend, or the other FBI whistleblowers who testified participated or even sympathized with the January 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol Building. “I was not in Washington D.C on January 6, played no part in the events of January 6, and I condemn all criminal activity that occurred,” said Allen.
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Others suggested the FBI agents were exaggerating. “You all have employment grievances,” said Rep. Gerald Connolly. “That doesn’t make you whistleblowers… We’re listening to sad tales of certain individuals,” said Rep. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz. “These individuals have been determined not to be whistleblowers.”
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But the FBI agents testifying followed the legally required whistleblower protocols within the FBI and were not fringe agents. Allen, for example, was the 2019 Employee of the Year for the Charlotte Field Office.
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Friend, a Special Agent at the FBI for eight and half years, O’Boyle, and Allen all said they made protected whistleblower disclosures and yet were retaliated against by the FBI. Allen was suspended without pay in January 2022. O’Boyle was transferred to a new unit, moved his family across the country, and was placed on an unpaid suspension the first day he arrived.
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For decades after the FBI was caught spying on Martin Luther King, Jr. and abusing its powers for political ends, Democrats emphasized strong constraints on domestic spying and the importance of whistleblowers. Now, Democrats are savaging these former public servants as threats to national security. Why is that?
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https://twitter.com/shellenberger/
Mike M. (Comment #221404)
That was my position base on ethics in my 1992 vote for Perot. Unfortunately, third party voting, but for the exceptions or some Dems like Sanders, Angus King (D) ME and now Sinema, is ineffective for conservative voters. The Libertarians, (bless them), are hurting the GOP in the currently razor thin Dem-GOP political differential. Hillary would have won in 2016 but for Green party candidate, Jill Stein. There was no Green party candidate in 2020. I don’t think that was accidental. If there had been it would have possibly been a repeat of 2016, despite the Covid mail in voting without checks, funded by Zuckerberg.
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Russell Klier (Comment #221414)
This is an example of how having somebody that you can’t stand could at the same time be a good President. Their number one job under the Constitution is to establish foreign policy and be commander in chief. Deterrence is the primary tool in the age of MAD. The Germans during WWII saw Patton as America’s general they most feared. Who does Putin and Khomeini, Un and Xi see the most fearsome out of the 2024 candidate pool should be one question a voter should ask.
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Russell, to answer your question, Putin could claim no walk in the park gain if a negotiation now gave him an independent Donbas and Crimea. These areas were heavily ethnic Russian to begin with and Putin could legitimately expect to demand to have a buffer between western aligned countries and mother Russia. I think this is the needle DeSantis or Trump would thread to end the war.
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DaveJR, I completely agree with your comment. There is a potential for GOP to merge in agreement with far left on the deep state issue, which threatens all but machine Dems. Greenwald, Mate and Taibbi are being joined daily by others on the left calling out the FBI weaponization. Here is another one. https://compactmag.com/article/durham-s-report-should-outrage-the-left
Re mark bofill (Comment #221402)
May 18th, 2023 at 4:30 pm
“Long time no see Max. Hope life has been treating you well.”
______
Thanks, Mark.
If you make me vote for someone, and I vote for Biden, are you happy then? Am I suddenly moral?
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I would vote third party to increase the likelihood they could qualify for matching funds in future.
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MikeM
Likely Biden.
Certainly not Trump.
Lucia, the quote you attributed to Mike M was actually mine. I know, it happens. I’m sure he will not mind.
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My thought that Trump or DeSantis would be more fearsome is based on the idea that first they would be ones that are more inclined to build the military with a stated “peace through strength” policy like Reagan’s. Trump made a point of making it clear not to “mess with me.” He used a MOAB in Afghanistan shortly after coming into office. He set the military loose with rules of engagement that allowed them to defeat ISIS within months. He often voiced the highest respect for them to keep morale high. He followed through for them, ordering the pull out of Syria against advice of the generals. We don’t know how he would have done in pulling out of Afghanistan. The Taliban leaders though likely remembered the MOAB and Soleimani assassination (that went unanswered) and the respect Trump got from other dictators.
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Biden is not in command. A reporter asked him if Putin was a war criminal and he said, “No.” He then walked over and talked to his advisers and then came back to the reporter to find who had asked the question to tell her he meant “yes.” Both answers are wrong to say when he is in control of the largest world arsenal of nuclear tipped ICBMs, all targeting the USA.
Ron,
(emphasis added)
Maybe you didn’t mean to say this?
[Edit. Oh. I see now. You’re calling Taliban leadership ‘dictatorship’. Well, they are totalitarian certainly anyway.]
Well everyone, I think cleaning out the deep state actually could be accomplished. Trump actually laid the foundations for it when he reclassified a large number of upper echelon positions as non-civil service meaning those holding those jobs could be replaced. Of course Biden undid this but Trump or DeSantis could re-institute it on day 1.
As to why Trump didn’t do it his first term. It took 2 years for Trump to get a group of people around him who were loyal and on the same page. In a second term that won’t happen.
There were a lot of Republicans like Pence who were probably advising Trump to not clean out the deep state and thought it would be a large expenditure of political capital and maybe wasn’t needed. The learning curve is steep for any new president. It took Trump more than a year to gain control of the border and he tried quite a few things before he found something that worked. Then there was covid that pushed everything onto the back burner. I also think the ongoing witch hunt with Mueller made a lot of people want to avoid doing anything that could cause an indictment or another impeachment. If Republicans retain the house the latter is off the table. Mueller is done and proved to be a witch hunt. This vindication may make most of the country immune to future witch hunts.
I personally believe that in the case of the FBI there is a lot of evidence in the Durham report of field offices resisting the corrupt demands of headquarters. It may be necessary to fire perhaps a couple of hundred higher ups to fix the problem. DOJ will take more and EPA may require a decimation (10% fired).
I doubt if Congress could fix the problem because laws are widely ignored by the deep state. They could reduce budgets which would also help fix the problem. Overturning Chevron would help enormously and indeed the court that Trump built (recall that he personally did this in an unprecedented move to fulfill a big campaign promise) may do that later this summer.
DeSantis or Trump will face enormous headwinds and I personally think they would need to be quite aggressive in using law enforcement to maintain civil peace. Trump didn’t do that in 2020 and I don’t know why. The task ahead is enormous and we do not need a Nicki Haley who always tries to compromise on every issue. That worked in South Carolina which is a very conservative state. Not sure it could work on the national level. The US will not return to being a free democracy without these changes I’m convinced.
Summarizing: In 2016 Republicans still generally had faith in the deep state, particularly the FBI and the CIA. It took 4 years of obvious malfeasance to produce a Republican concensus that cleaning it out is needed.
David,
I disagree, but I don’t care enough to argue about it as of right now. When you plop down a long post like that where there are so many things to take issue with it’s hard to even know where to start. Maybe it’s best just not to start. We’ll see!
I also checked the 2022 results. Republicans won the House popular vote by 2.9%, a little more than the final RCP poll average. In 2010 the result was similar and Republicans gained 55 seats. So what happened. In NewYork their supreme court overturned the Legislature’s heavily gerrymandered redistricting. I think Republicans picked up 2 or 3 seats. Now extrapolate that to other blue areas and it kind of accounts for why 2022 was not a “wave.”
Mark, I look forward to hearing what you take exception with in David’s comment. I am interesting to running the points to ground to vet the truth. I know the Russia investigation was many years ago now and the revelations of the fraud are slow to bubble up, long after minds were set from personal judgements already staked.
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Personally, when I find I have been subjected to a massive lie I get very interested in finding exactly what was known and when did they know it. Durham was as much as a David against Goliath as Barr was or Sessions or Flynn or Trump. And they had not in their worst paranoid dreams thought the FBI leadership could be rotten to the core. This explains Rosenstein and Wray were assumed to be clean when Trump followed trusted advice to promote them. Trump said that Rosenstein suggested Wray, according to NBC but Chris Christy wrote that he suggested Wray to Trump. https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-called-fbi-director-chris-wray-the-worst-member-of-my-administration-book-2021-11
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I am not sure what news feed you get or if you have ever heard of Judicial Watch. They are the ones who led the outing of Lois Lerner, sued to clean up voter roles in many blue states violating their own laws. And they likely get more documents declassified than most congressional investigators. This is their take on the Durham report:
Steve F
”
The only thing that matters is whether or not Biden can reach 270 electoral votes in 2024, and that is where Trump is a big problem: too many people will never vote for him, no matter his opponent. If you count up the states that are permanently out reach for Trump, Biden is not far from 270 before the campaign starts, and Trump has to win nearly every one of the potentially competitive states to have a chance.”
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No fair.
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That same comment could have been made in 2016,and was, when everyone determined that was why Clinton would win. She had the votes in the bag.
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Some states will never vote Republican, others will never vite Democrat.
California is a very large Democrat bastion so a large part of that 280 votes is, as you opine, sealed in.
Equally A Republican Joe Biden would win 240 votes without trying.
That grey area of voting is what counts.
Add in inflation, petrol pricing, border crossings, Hunter and reaps ration payments.
Subtract abortion rights.
270 votes is a bit harder to get than you are factoring in.
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After all a mere 10,00 votes was it might have enough according to some ham fisted attempts.
Not a lot.
Apologies for the poor spelling and number of mistakes.
At an art gallery in Benalla enjoying a freezing cold Autumn day.
Will try to slow down and get better in future.
The Republicans need a sensible 12-14 week abortion policy for those who need it and they would walk it in
Ron,
Nah. The problems are pretty obvious, apply some critical thinking skills and you’ll be amazed at how they jump out at you. But I’m not doing it for you right now. Not in the mood. Maybe that’ll change later.
Another Putin legacy disaster is Russia’s status in the world. I didn’t fact-check everything in this and I don’t know the author, but it seems spot on:
”Just to summarize this week alone.
G7 Summit in Hiroshima, Japan –> no Russia
Arab League Summit in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia –> no Russia
Central Asian Summit in Xian, China –> no Russia
This is how a former power disappears from the world stage. Especially the Central Asian Summit is an epic disaster for Moscow. China was not interested to have Russia even for symbolic reasons there”
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1659601182887649280?s=20
I can’t swear to this, but I believe the last Ukrainian solder has withdrawn from Bakhmut. I’ve said that before and been wrong, but this time it feels real. My report said the retreat was orderly. Ukrainian units are still on the attack and slowly gaining ground to the North and South of the city.
Kicking Putin when he’s down…. Yesterday an French air force plane flew President Zelenskyy from Jeddah, Saudi Arabia to Hiroshima, Japan on the way to the G7 summit. It was afforded safe passage over India and, more importantly, China.
Flight CTM1022, Airbus A330
Track: https://twitter.com/rklier21/status/1659895643278540801?s=61&t=q3_InP1nXWdPIXqj8656mQ
David
I think the above is the sort of claim may be referring in thtis answer to Ron Graf
And
And it doesn’t take much thought to understand why “people” would still want to avoid doing anything that could cause an indictment or impeachment.
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DeSantis might be able to take on the “Deep State”. Trump was ineffective before; he would be again.
Lucia,
Yep. It’s just silly.
The problems with the argument really go on forever and are just plain tedious in my view.
1. That Trump is going to surround himself with loyalists this time from day one is an evidence free assertion. Also an irrelevant assertion, since loyalty to Trump and membership in the set of “Deep State” has not been shown to be mutually exclusive.
2. Then we have unsupported speculation that ‘advisors’ were suggesting to Trump not to clean out the “Deep State”. Even if this speculation were to be supported, no argument offered as to why it wouldn’t happen again. The “loyalty” argument offered earlier doesn’t speak to this (even assuming it held water); one can be loyal to Trump and still offer Trump advice that David Young might disagree with.
3. Then we have the argument that ‘stuff happens’. Learning curve, covid, etc. Sure. Stuff happens. Stuff happened before and stuff will happen again. There’s no argument here as to why ‘stuff’ won’t happen again to prevent Trump from getting around to dealing with the ‘Deep State’.
4. Now we reach the truly delusional part. This vindication may make most of the country immune to future witch hunts. It is absolutely absurd in my view to think that the political, philosophical, and cultural opposition to Donald Trump is going to cease trying to destroy Trump by any means necessary, particularly if he were to hold a Federal political office. Republicans holding the House after electing Trump might not be impossible, but it’s far from a sure thing.
…
I could go on. Tedious and seemingly pointless though. How is anyone going to figure out who to get rid of and who to keep in our bureaucracy exactly? I don’t think there is any reasonable or workable answer to this question. Is the yardstick going to be loyalty to the Orange man, shall they swear fealty? That would be pathetic! Is it going to be conservative beliefs? We’d be the same as our political opposition in principle, doesn’t strike me as sound footing. What then? Who’s going to do the culling of the bureaucrats ? [Edit: All of these questions need to be answered, in my view. Without answers to these questions the idea that Trump is going t o clean out the ‘Deep State’ is just pie in the sky, in my view.] The whole idea is completely unworkable and absurd. It is every bit as absurd as the social justice nonesense the progressives argue for.
If our bureaucrats ignore laws (to the extent that they do this), it’s unclear to me how the President has some power that any other branch doesn’t have to deal with this.
Finally, somehow we need a President who will be quite aggressive in using law enforcement to maintain civil peace in order to return to being a free democracy. I don’t even know what to say about that, it leaves me speechless.
“A man killed an 18-year-old North Dakota teen in a hit-and-run Sunday after believing he was a “republican extremist,” according to multiple reports.
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Foster County Deputies were called to an alleyway in the town of McHenry around 2:35 a.m. by 41-year-old Shannon Brandt, according to Valley News Live and Inforum. Brandt told authorities that 18-year-old Cayler Ellingson was part of a Republican extremist group and he was afraid they were “coming to get him,” according to the reports.
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Just before the alleged hit-and-run, Ellingson reportedly called his mother to ask if she knew who Brandt was. His mother said “yes” and immediately went on her way to pick her son up, according to Valley News Live and Inforum. Ellingson later called his mother a second time to say that “he” or “they” were chasing him, according to the same reports. (RELATED: Tim Ryan Says US Needs To ‘Kill And Confront’ ‘Extremist’ Republican Movement)
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Brandt told authorities that he was under the influence of alcohol and confessed to hitting Ellingson with his car because a political argument ensued between the two of them, Valley News Live reported. Brandt also reportedly said he left the site of the crash, but then returned and called 911 before leaving again.
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Ellingson was pronounced dead at Carrington Hospital. Brandt is being charged with criminal vehicular homicide and DUI with a $50,000 bail, according to the report.
President Joe Biden attacked Trump supporters during a recent Philadelphia speech, saying, “Donald Trump and the MAGA Republicans represent an extremism that threatens the very foundation of our republic.”
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https://dailycaller.com/2022/09/21/shannon-brandt-cayler-ellingsonteen-republican-extremist-killing-allegations-hit-and-run-reports/
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“Murder charge reduced to manslaughter for North Dakota man who struck, ran over, and killed conservative teen
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According to the Associated Press, Foster County State Attorney Kara Brinster’s decision to reduce the charges was not part of a plea deal, and Brandt is still expected to appear in court for trial beginning May 30.
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“There is no evidence to support the misplaced allegation of intentional homicide,” Brandt’s lawyer Mark Friese said. “The state and defense forensic experts have provided comprehensive reports confirming this tragedy was an accident. Misplaced media hype and community conjecture is no substitute for evidence.”
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An autopsy found that Ellingson’s injuries “weren’t caused from being struck by Shannon Brandt’s vehicle and were caused by being run over.”
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As the Associated Press reports, investigators claim that the incident was not politically motivated, and that Ellingson was not part of a “Republican extremist” group, as Brandt originally said.
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Following the incident, Brandt returned to the scene and called 911 on himself, but failed to stay until they arrived, opting instead to go back home. As a result, he was also charged with “fail[ing] to render aid as required” by North Dakota law.
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Police soon caught up with Brandt, who had admitted to having consumed alcohol prior to the incident, and arrested him for driving under the influence. A chemical test later confirmed that he had, in fact, been over the legal limit.
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With a murder charge, Brandt could have faced life in prison, however, if he’s found guilty of manslaughter, the maximum penalty is ten years.”
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https://thepostmillennial.com/murder-charge-reduced-to-manslaughter-for-north-dakota-man-who-struck-ran-over-and-killed-conservative-teen
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“Brandt Pleads Guilty To Manslaughter
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A Glenfield man who hit and killed another man with his car following a street dance in McHenry last fall has pleaded guilty to manslaughter.
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Shannon Brandt, 42, faces a maximum 10-year prison term.
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A murder charge against Brandt in the death of Cayler Ellingson, 18, was recently reduced to manslaughter after a plea agreement with the Foster County State’s Attorney was approved by Southeast Judicial District Judge Bradley Cruff.
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“A couple weeks ago, the prosecution amended the charge from homicide to manslaughter,” Friese said. “We didn’t know that was going to happen. And then, last week, there were depositions of a number of the prosecution witnesses that had been disclosed to the prosecutor.”
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Friese said he believes that painted a much clearer picture for the prosecution of the totality of the events that had occurred.
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“The truth of all of this is this was a tragic accident,” Brandt’s attorney, Mark Friese of Fargo, said. “The State Medical Examiner’s Office has concluded it was an accident. Mr. Brandt from the very beginning, and consistently, has said that he was simply trying to avoid the confrontation, and in the process of trying to get away, the accident happened.”
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Initially, a state trooper said that Brandt and Ellingson had gotten into a political argument. That claim was later discounted.
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Friese previously said the allegation of intentional homicide was misplaced, and media hype and community conjecture is no substitute for evidence.”
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https://www.newsdakota.com/2023/05/19/brandt-pleads-guilty-to-manslaughter/
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A guy has an “altercation” in a bar, that he says was political, but the evidence says it wasn’t. A 911 call supposedly claims the victim was an extremist, for which there is no evidence, so therefore it wasn’t a political altercation? The victim supposedly calls his parents twice, in fear of his life, and is then “accidentally” run over by the guy that called 911 and said he was an extremist. His lawyer claims “he was just trying to get away” from the supposed altercation which didn’t really happen. No trial will now apparently take place.
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This case is very strange. I think the most striking thing is there is no comment from anyone other than Brandt’s lawyer. No video, no 911 call. Nothing of substance from anyone, and that bugs me.
Mark
Clearly, the president could sent out the FBI. Or the Justice Department. Wearing special “sent by Trump” badges. 🙂
Lucia,
Right?!? I mean WTF. None of it makes any sense, but it sounds pretty ominous to me.
Ohh…. Reading commentary on ” Andy Warhol Foundation v. Goldsmith”. New goal: use ipse dixit where relevant.
Wow. I coulda saved myself a lot of typing if I knew that term.
I appreciate the skepticism but we will have to agree to disagree.
I think people are sometimes uninformed about how bad the violence was against Trump’s administration. Recall there was a multi-week siege of the White House in which many federal officers were injured and a church was set on fire. Arson is a felony. These same rioters threatened people like Rand Paul as they left the Republican National Convention. These people should have been arrested and charged with Federal crimes and tried outside Washington DC.
The Portland riots in which a Federal court house was besieged was a serious threat to the justice system and was felonious. There were lots of attacks on police stations in the summer of 2020 including in Seattle yet there have been few if any prosecutions. People died in the Chaz area and merchants were threatened and there was lots of arson. Mayor Durkin winked at this.
There have been clearly illegal protests outside Supreme Justices residencies. It is a Federal crime to try to intimidate a Federal judge. Yet no one has been charged. Garland sent a Marshall out to “prevent violence.” The majority leader of the Senate spoke to demonstrators on the steps of the Supreme Court and threatened justices by name. It is almost as if there is an effort to undermine the institutional legitimacy of the Court. This could in fact be prosecuted under a number of statutes.
I think its pretty easy to determine who in the upper echelons should be replaced. There is a lot of information out there in email servers, etc. For starters fire Wray and anyone who ordered the persecution of peaceful anti-abortion people or is involved in ferreting out “far right” extremists, or anyone who approved using a SWAT team to arrest peaceful people. There is prescedent for this with Obama’s tracking down leakers and prosecuting them. The Inspectors General could be utilized to investigate this.
I obviously don’t know for sure how Trump would prioritize doing this, but I think he will give it priority since he’s been pledging to do it. His track record on this is pretty good.
Sorry should have said: His track record [on fulfilling campaign pledges] is pretty good.
David,
Thank you for clarifying what you meant when you said quite aggressive in using law enforcement to maintain civil peace.
As for the rest, we can certainly agree to disagree and leave it at that. Thanks.
Two days ago I said [Comment #221408]:
“US signals to allies it won’t block their export of F-16 jets to Ukraine. I expect the floodgates to open up.”
I had no idea how right I was. The floodgates opened wide. The maximum count is around 70 aircraft, a few are ready now. It started with a coalition of Nederlands and the UK. Today it’s Portugal, the UK, France, the USA, the Netherlands, Denmark, and Belgium, pledging either aircraft or pilot training. Some countries, including the US, had secretly been training pilots for months.
You can’t just fly F-16’s over Russian anti-aircraft systems if your intent is flying them more than once.
Tom Scharf,
“You can’t just fly F-16’s over Russian anti-aircraft systems if your intent is flying them more than once.”
The F-16 uses HARM missiles to take out anti-aircraft systems.
“The AGM-88 HARM or high-speed anti-radiation missile, is an air-to-surface tactical missile designed to seek and destroy enemy radar-equipped air defense systems.”
The Ukrainians adapted their MIGs to fire HARM last year and used them to great effect. The F-16 radar will enable the Ukrainians to engage targets from much greater distances (48 plus kilometers) than the MIGs were able to… BOOM!.
https://www.af.mil/About-Us/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/104574/agm-88-harm/
Mark Bofill
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Mark, do you think that the “opposition” will not be as fierce to another GOP candidate? If so, why would that be? Do you feel that Trump is would do harm to the USA by going against the GOP establishment to continue to extend support to Israel, curtail illegal crossings on the southern border, encourage fossil fuels to achieve energy dominance, build the military and its recruitment, negotiating tough trade deals, standing tough on China and state a policy of economic decoupling, reduce welfare by encouraging minority employment? He has spoken little about abortion and I do not see Trump as a born again evangelical, like Pence or Bush, that would ignore polling on the issue.
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The main rage among independents against Trump was his trusting Putin over the US intel agencies. We now know Trump was right that Putin was falsely accused, along with Trump. The only thing I saw that Russia did in my personal deep dive into the 2015-16 Russia matter was hack the DNC in 2014. Dutch intelligence (AIVD) had hacked the SVR (Russia’s CIA) security cameras and were able to see the hack in real time. They notified the FBI in the summer of 2015. But if you believe it the word never got to Hillary or the DNC computer network contractor MIS Inc, out of IL, whom Obama first hired for his campaign in 2008 and 2012 and Hillary and DNC continued with in 2015-2016. I think critical think would say otherwise. The question then becomes why was it allowed to sit on the DNC computer for 2 years? The answer may be that when talking about the Russia interference in the 2016 election the only fact that now survives as being true is that Russia has a malware on the DNC computer.
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BTW, the FBI just asked a judge to seal the contents of Seth Rich’s laptop in their possession since his murder in the summer of 2016 for another 66 years. The FBI only admitted they had the laptop in 2020 after being sued for FOIA and they have been appealing to fight release of documents since. It sounds like it is being handled as if it’s of JFK-RFK level of importance.
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Mark
This is a great question. I like David’s suggestion of looking at the email server. I would hire back all the whistleblowers and put them in senior level positions, led by Kash Patel, Devin Nunes, Rick Grennel and Steven McIntyre.
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I’d hire former Border Patrol Head Mark Morgan to run the FBI and send Chris Wray to be in charge of securing the border against drug cartels. In fact, I would take half of the border patrol into the FBI and replace them all with FBI agents at the border, a sort of cross-training exercise.
Ron
Oh? ipse dixit .
There! Now I got to use it!
Illegitimi non carborundum… one of the few things I remember from my Latin schooling….although that actually has no meaning.
It’s a lot more complicated that carrying a HARM missile, and it’s unclear exactly what missiles and weaponry are are going to be attached to those F-16’s. What is the range of that HARM? What is the range of that anti-aircraft missile? What are the relative costs? What is the propaganda value of a smoldering F-16 burning in a field? How fast can a target be located and what is the turn around time to put a weapon on target? Generally speaking the F-16’s given away are going to be older models first.
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The F-16 was introduced in the 1970’s, don’t be surprised when these start getting taken out. It’s original intent was air superiority, and ground attack capability was an after thought at the time.
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They have value, and Russia will likely need to adjust tactics if they are going to be showing up in the skies. The US tactics are much more complex than “throw a plane at the other side”. A pack of planes with differing capabilities (stealth, electronic warfare, anti-radar, air superiority, ground attack, AWACS, drones) are used in the first phases to claim the air space. I don’t see any intent for this to happen here, but we shall see.
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As far as I know Ukraine isn’t letting its MIG’s get anywhere close to the front lines. I don’t think they would survive long. Russia has known for decades that the west will want to claim the skies and it is a very serious threat to their grinding war doctrine. They have capability here.
Ron,
Absolutely.
I don’t know.
I don’t know that your love song rephrased in the form of a long convoluted question rests on valid assumptions, so I’m going to pass on it.
Lucia is correct. This is the sort of statement that really needs to be supported. Got links? I suspect it’s quite wrong in addition to lacking badly needed support.
Well, I’ll give you guys credit for trying. Amateur policy hour, I guess I brought this on myself. I don’t know if I can bring myself to waste the time and attention arguing how dumb I think these ideas are about fixing the deep state bureaucracy. If you guys really want to, I can try. But seriously. Never going to work, and Trump knows it. It’s sauce for the suckers gentlemen, don’t be suckers.
WSJ: How Bud Light Blew It
With one blunder after another, the brewing giant behind the brand became a case study in how not to handle a culture-war storm
https://www.wsj.com/articles/bud-light-boycott-sales-dylan-mulvaney-6c23bb86?st=d2ak3hxzeqserux&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
“Budweiser’s famous Clydesdale horses still live in St. Louis, Mo., where its brewer, Anheuser-Busch, has been making beer since the 1850s. Visitors can tour the flagship brewery to check out a vintage delivery truck and pick up a Budweiser eagle T-shirt at the gift shop.
The company’s marketing hub is about 950 miles away in a sleek building in Manhattan’s Chelsea neighborhood.”
Ron,
Do you actually care what my answer is? Because it’s work to answer this well. If you were just using the question as a springboard to break into your subsequent love song, I’ll spare myself the effort. But if you really want to know, I can take time and answer this.
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[Edit: Replace my ‘I don’t know’ with ‘I don’t see how this matters’.]
Tom Scharf,
“What is the propaganda value of a smoldering F-16 burning in a field? “
Right now, the F-16 is a huge propaganda loss for Russia and a huge win for Ukraine. We are at least six months away from even the possibility of seeing “a smoldering F-16 burning in a field” Until then, you can expect Ukraine to milk this propaganda advantage for all it’s worth… and they have been masters of PSYOPs. There are already pictures circulating purportedly of Ukrainian pilots in F-16 rudimentary simulation training:
https://twitter.com/rklier21/status/1660318592099860481?s=20
Soon I expect to see slick and scary GoPro videos of Ukrainian pilots thundering through the skies over the US.
Lucia, I should have said one of the main pieces of misinformation that influenced independents against Trump. This long repeated narrative of Trump attacking the US intel agencies is again ironic. It’s just like the attacks on him for “obstructing justice” of the unpredicted FBI and Mueller investigations.
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On the AIVD tip off of the DNC hack, I just read the ARS Technica article I linked and see that it’s a deceptive article. Although they correctly describe AIVD’s infiltration into the SVR to expose their Cozy Bear hacks on the State Dept and White House, which were acted on immediately by the USIC after receiving the tip in 2014, AT omit’s mention of when AIVD told the USIC about the DNC hack and the failure to take action. Instead they write:
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First, the Cozy Bear hack was not responsible for the John Podesta Wikileaks because there was no Cozy Bear hack (aka APT 29) there. The Podesta hack was Fancy Bear (APT 28), and was never attributed to any actor by evidence other than the maleware was originally developed by the Russian GRU but used by many other groups, including Ukrainian ones. The “key” to the Russian attribution of both hacks was the correct attribution of the Cozy Bear hack. The question a skeptic must ask is why could AIVD see all the activity of the Russians in real time but not see or provide evidence of the DNC email exfiltration? One could answer that the Russian SVR got wind of the AIVD infiltration and ended it before May 2016. Then the skeptic would ask why the Russians would take the unprecedented act of giving their intel to Wikileaks just when they know their infiltration had been exposed and would make its attribution a cinch?
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Backing up to the article’s blaming Trump for betraying AIVD by his lack of appreciation and respect for their assistance, it is much more concerning to AIVD, one would think, that 1) The deep state leaked the story of their secret infiltration of the State Dept and WH back in 2014 as soon as the information gift was received; 2) The USIC failed to use AIVD’s tip to protect the DNC. That is kind of unappreciative that the USIC neglected to tell Clinton or the DNC of the Cozy Bear sitting on the DNC server. Isn’t it? But the AT article neglects to give the reader that information, though it was public knowledge at that point.
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Looking at Wikipedia’s handling of this information is just as bad.
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It is not true that the DNC network contractor was notified immediately. They were called in the fall of 2015 by an FBI agent that told them they had maleware on their server. The MIS Inc network administrator later claimed he thought it was a crank call. This is only born out in that no action was taken that the calls repeated at about one per month. Apparently, AIVD or the NSA was still monitoring the DNC server. Then in January of 2016 the FBI agent decided to make the walk over to DNC headquarters personally and tell the MIS Inc. administrator to clean it up. Inexplicably, no action was taken even after the personal meeting. It’s unclear if Debbie Wasserman Schultz, the head of the DNC, was told. Meanwhile in March of 2016 John Podesta got a strange email warning that his computer had been infected with a virus and he needed to enter his credentials to change the password. You and I would recognize this as a pfishing scam but Podesta emailed his network administrator for Hillary For America, MIS Inc., and was told the notification was “legitimate.” Podesta then entered his credentials and allowed the exfiltration of his emails. The MIS Inc. administrator later said it was his mistake. He meant to write “illegitimate.” I’m not making this up.
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When the infection was detected, we don’t know how, Dmitri Alperovitch, founder of Crowdstrike was called by Perkins Coie to come in and clean up the mess with MIS Inc. at Hillary For America. Meanwhile, MIS Inc., a tiny one owner small business from Chicago, forgot about the maleware sitting on the DNC server. BTW, Steve McIntyre wrote many posts on this in 2017 and 2018. The old Cozy Bear code was known to all antivirus companies and would have been detected and quarantined if MIS Inc. had run any updated anti-virus scans.
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Meanwhile, also in early March of 2016 AIVD saw their friends at the SVR copy a DNC email of DW Schultz promising Clinton staffer Amanda Rentaria Lorretta Lynch had assured a George Soros surrogate that Clinton would not be prosecuted for her illegal storage and share of classified documents on her private server. .
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The email was from DWS to Amanda Rentaria, a high up staff member of the Clinton Campaign, briefly a candidate for Governor of California. James Comey wrote in his book as well as testified before the senate that this intel concerned him, thinking it could be used to cast the Attorney General in a nefarious light when taken in combination with being caught meeting Bill Clinton on the tarmac in AZ just before the FBI’s Hillary email server investigation was concluding. Comey used this “mosaic” as his justification for exonerating Clinton as not to possibly let suspicion fall on the AG. Comey said he had his men ask Rentaria if the report was true and her denial was plenty enough for the FBI to call it a hoax. Left unmentioned was that the report came from AIVD watching the SVR take the email off the DNC’s server. The Vanity Fair article simply says it was leaked Russian disinformation. Clearly the AIVD’s sharing with the USIC should not be considered the same as an anonymous internet 4Chan post. The Vanity Fair reader is left to believe this story came from a Q-anon.
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Meanwhile, on April 30, 2016, Perkins Coie called Dmitri Alperovitch again. This time it was a report of suspicious activity on the DNC server. Crowdstrike sent their team in and on May 1, after their first scan called their boss to tell him, “Russians are on the server!” Crowdstrike then spent the next 40 days trying to clean the server and, failing to do so, wiped it clean on ~June 10 and called the FBI and a press conference to announce the hack.
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The exfiltration of the DNC emails occurred on May 21, three weeks after Crowdstrike had control of the server. Neither the FBI or any other federal agency got involved to investigate more than taking information provided by Crowdstrike. Yet this event now stands as the predicate for Russian involvement in the 2016 Wikileaks, along with an internet character that popped up the day after Alperovitch’s press conference to claim he was the hacker. He called himself Guccifer 2.0, after the Romanian hacker that got jailed after hacking Sidney Blutmenthal’s emails and exposing Clinton’s day one knowledge that the Benghazi attack was a planned attack and not a protest. Guccifer 2.0 left breadcrumb clues that he was a Russian and also set up the honey pot that got Roger Stone convicted of lying to congress.
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There is much more. I need to make some time to collect what is left on the internet about this. I see it’s disappearing over the years, even from Duckduckgo.
Ron
Of course, as I noted this starts with ‘ipse dixit”. It then goes ont to blather about 2016 elections. News flash: The 2016 elections were 7 years ago. And whether something or someone was unfair to Trump is pretty dang irrelevant to whether one should vote for him now. I mean… yeah. Hilary wasn’t great either. But here’s another news flash: I’m not voting for her in 2024 either.
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Here’s another news flash: This tidbit also isn’t going to may me suddenly say “Oh! Trump is a guh….rate!!! Lemme vote for him!!!!!!! Whoo hoo!”
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Uhmmm…. with all due respect to Steve, who I like very much, Steve McIntyre is not a “whistleblower”. Whistleblower are insiders. I’m pretty sure Steve McIntyre, a Canadian, was never employed by the US government or a private sector group involved with federal secrets.
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David and Ron,
So – the criteria you want to go with on the culling of the bureaucrats:
1) Figure out who ordered the persecution of peaceful anti-abortion people and fire him, if you can find an incriminating email.
2) Search emails that seem to [incriminate] people [] in ferreting out “far right” extremists and fire them [/ those people].
3) anyone who approved using a SWAT team to arrest peaceful people.
4) Use the Inspector Generals to do this.
Do I have this correct?
Oh, I’m sorry. And swap personnel between the border patrol and the FBI? I forgot that one. Is this a fair summary of your anti deep state plan?
Just to get started with the problems:
1. So, just the FBI and border patrol I guess. No plan to deal with the Deep State IRS, or Deep State in all the intelligence agencies. No plan to deal with EPA overreach. No plan to deal with ATF overreach. So on, there’s no lack of federal bureaucracies that can impact us. We’re gonna forget about all those and just look at the FBI and border patrol.
2. And within that teeny limited context, the plan is wholly reactive. Find people who have done things we don’t like from our ideological perspective and remove them. No reason to believe this is going to get all or even most of the Deep State, but we don’t care, we’ll just react to people who’ve written emails.
3. And we’re gonna make the OIG do this, and I’m pretty sure they are going to come back and say ‘nope, you are totally mistaken, that is not what we do, not even close, sorry’, but even if they didn’t, why you believe the OIG people don’t also suffer from ideological capture is something of a mystery. And even if ideological capture didn’t play a role, our simple and persistent experience with government incompetence ought to give us pause.
4. And people like Lois Lerner can always be found who are willing to do something dirty and then apologize and take their generous pension and retirement afterwards, and you don’t seem to have a mechanism to address that. If you have you haven’t spoken it.
5. And once Trump leaves office, absolutely nothing prevents his progressive replacement from doing exactly the same thing again. Only he will have an advantage, because people who believe the government is a force for good (Progressives) gravitate towards government service in the first place.
6. Which reminds me, all of these people who are fired have to be replaced. No plan to vet replacements so there’s no particular reason to believe the replacements will be any better.
…
This is just getting started, really.
I mean, I should elaborate on #2 [and #5] above. Because ideological purges of bureaucrats (and that’s obviously what we’re talking about, do we agree?) is something our opposition on the Left would love to have as a permanent and legitimate feature of our politics. They’d think that was fantastic. They’d be like – of course we’re firing all the white, straight, traditional males from the bureaucracy and replacing them with our radical black trans neo marxists. That’s how politics work, that’s what you guys do!
And they’d be right. You can’t play identity politics with these people and win; they are much, much better at it than you. It’s a losing game.
[Edit: But even if you could win it would be just as evil, for exactly the same reasons, as when the leftists use it.]
But this is typical of the thinking I see exhibited in support of Trump. There is only today to consider somehow. Nobody ever seems to have the time or interest to think what the consequences of the innovations will be once Trump is out of office. Have we broken elections forever now such that Vice Presidents will routinely overturn elections? Oh, doesn’t matter, that’s tomorrow. Trump Today Trump Trump Trump! Have we screwed up our bureaucracies even worse than they were screwed up before (didn’t think that was possible, did’ja? Peterson says Hell is a bottomless pit for good reason and I think he’s got that idea right)? Oh, doesn’t matter, we’ll worry about that next election! Trump today Trump Trump Trump!
eh, no.
Gruesome and curious way of analyzing it:
“If you take at face value Russia’s claim of taking Bakhmut, then it has just killed 0.077% of its population (100k) to conquer 0.00024% (41.2sqkm) of its territory. In other words, if the current loss rate sustains, Russia will only need around 1 billion of its people killed to capture the rest of Ukraine.”
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1660290240349712385?s=61&t=q3_InP1nXWdPIXqj8656mQ
Oh and I forgot, Christ have mercy. Sending border patrol guys to do the FBI’s job and vice versa. Really. Say, why don’t we just send the IRS guys to NASA to do their jobs; what could possibly go wrong with that. I mean, they’re all people, huh. No reason they wouldn’t be interchangeable. Except for experience and training and education and little things like that, people are practically similar.
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[Edit: Oh yeah, and the icing on the cake; the idea that Trump actually gives a crap about any of this, and isn’t just saying what his supporters want to here so they’ll continue to support him. Right..]
I can’t substantiate my claim that most federal employees lean left, even though I personally believe this. Ipse dixit! I withdraw that for now, although if I find time and evidence later maybe I’ll revisit it.
mark
Or vice versa.
Mark: “Oh yeah, and the icing on the cake; the idea that Trump actually gives a crap about any of this”
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For someone who doesn’t give a crap, he sure seems intent on courting a world of pain to do it. World’s greatest masochist? He could have saved himself a lot of trouble and not bothered, or better yet, run as a democrat and received ego stroking accolades galore!
DaveJR,
I think the reward of being President is more than enough benefit to be worth any pain for a narcissist like Trump. Plus he likes drama.
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As for pain? He hasn’t been slammed in jail. He hasn’t been impoverished. His kids aren’t in jail. He hasn’t even lost a pet.
I don’t think words and being called bad names really bothers him.
Thanks Lucia. Trump cares about being President a lot. I really meant to say that Trump doesn’t actually care about the ‘deep state’. He wants revenge and loyalty and cooperation. Not the same thing.
mark,
That’s what I think. I don’t think Trump really, honestly cares about “the deep state”. I think he cares about being president. And I think he likes to be “the guy in charge”.
Thanks Lucia. Same for me.
I haven’t been posting battle news because my sources are still putting a time delay in their news to avoid spilling the beans. I don’t know any more than Mr. Google.
But here goes… The Ukrainian army is still advancing on the left and right flanks [North and South] of Bakhmut. Videos of the attacks show run-ups by mechanized infantry and heavy tanks. The infantry dismounts and attack the Russians in their foxholes while the tanks blast away in direct fire mode. I believe all Ukrainian units have been successfully withdrawn from the city proper, but there are periodic excursions into the city by Ukrainian special forces. Ukrainian General Syrskyi who is commanding the attacking forces says they are encircling the city and trapping the Russians. Who knows, maybe they are? “We are close to strategically encircling Bakhmut – Commander of Ukrainian Ground Forces” https://finance.yahoo.com/news/close-strategically-encircling-bakhmut-commander-122700074.html
And, Margarita Simonyan who is head of Russian official television, RT is calling for Russian citizens to volunteer at munitions factories because of “ammo hunger’. She says there are dozens of countries supplying munitions to Ukraine but “We’re standing alone”…. Yes, you are!
https://youtu.be/-1L_bs4hCOQ
Finally, a top-of-the-line Russian fighter was downed over the Black Sea:
“SU-35 aircraft was shot down over the sea by the air defense forces of Ukraine. According to preliminary data, the crew did not have time to eject. We are waiting for confirmation from the Ukrainian General Staff.”
Thanks Russel,
I read about withdrawal-encircling. Like you I though “ok. Maybe it’s true”.
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Yes, Russia seems truly alone. I’m not quite sure why that news should help the government drum up volunteers. But then, I can’t pretend to understand the Russian hive mind. Maybe it will?
Them tricky bastards! I just had an epiphany. All this international hoopla over F-16s isn’t about some future dogfights; it’s about keeping the Russian airforce away from this summer’s Ukrainian offensive. Since the war’s early days, the Russian airforce has been [almost] a no-show over the battlefront. They have been hesitant to put fighter jets in harm’s way. This year, Ukrainian anti-air assets are engaged in protecting cities from cruise missile attacks and there are reports of low supplies of anti-aircraft missiles. So enter the F-16 falderal. If Russia can be convinced Ukraine may soon have an actual airforce [one that can realistically attack Moskow eg.] they will again be reluctant to risk fighters in support of ground battles.
Lucia,
“I read about withdrawal-encircling. Like you I thought “ok. Maybe it’s true”.”
I can’t help but think of the irony. For months on end, Ed Forbes told us about the Russian pincer movement around Bakhmut. They were gonna encircle the Ukrainians and slaughter them in a cauldron. Not only did that not happen, but now we are being told by the Ukrainians that the exact opposite is happening. [I guess I shouldn’t find war to be amusing.]
Malware links?
Thanks mark. I deleted and added all those urls to the block list.
Ron
Still ipse dixit. (And we don’t know how long your list of “main pieces” is. I don’t think that’s a “main” piece. )
And I’m not interested in reading your counter argument to something somewhere said– especially give that no one here said, wrote, liked to or referred to that info. It’s not relevant to anything discussed here.
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You really should limit typing those long counter arguments somewhere where they can be read by someone who is making the argument you want to counter. Otherwise you’ll wear off your finger prints typing things no one bothers to read.
Russell, I appreciate your analysis from your deep dives into the Ukraine war. I am just wondering if your are reading too much into the west’s strategy. After all, if our western leaders were really on the ball they would have prevented the invasion in the first place. I think the F-16s was just the next thing on Ukraine’s wish list that they were lobbying for, and after some time and blood shed are deemed worthy of receiving. It’s a morale boosting news item too to the suffering Ukrainians. At the same time the signal to Russia of judicious incremental escalation is hoped to avoid a shock event that could trigger an Russian escalation, like attacking US or UK infrastructure or using WMD in Ukraine.
Ron
Sheesh… ipse dixit!
For those who would like to better understand why some people still support Trump while also supporting all the other GOP candidates, I will use my own example. I think the deep state has become too powerful to govern. In the past the constitutional checks of congress and the investigative media would have brought a cycle of reform after a natural slide into corruption. We saw this with the Pentagon Papers getting published to expose the misreporting of the Vietnam War and Frank Church’s congressional committee exposing CIA assassination plots. Both had media support and were somewhat bipartisan in nature.
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Today I see the majority of the media and one entire political party in a marriage with the administrative state. This is evidenced by the Twitter files showing the FBI had effectively had its own office inside of Twitter acting as a clearinghouse for the entire executive branch and Democrat legislators to suppress information as well as to coordinate disinformation. This was not being done at the direction of the GOP White House or cabinet officials. It was being done despite them. They were sealed off.
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The problems we saw with the Trump administration, in my opinion, all came from the underestimation of this force. People like Glen Greenwald have centered their focus on exposing this problem before the deep state had merged with the Democrat Party and the MSM. Now the level of danger has flushed out many lifelong Democrats to where they see the GOP as their only hope to ally with in exposing and reforming the corruption as it grows simultaneously in size of influence to its recruits and ferocity against its checks. In other words, it is on track to become irreversible, at which point freedoms will naturally be extracted one by one by necessity in order to preserve and grow its power. And, that will all be done in the name of counter-terrorism and national security.
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When David used the word revolution I took it as meaning there needs to be a national awakening of we the people as to the realization of situation I described. There needs to be a GOP win in 2024, not by a few tens of thousands of votes but by millions. I think the elections can and are being altered in swing states or close elections. At the same time misinformation and youth indoctrination is playing an even larger role.
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The failed Durham investigation signifies to the left that the Mueller investigation was justified. The failed Durham investigation to the right sounds the alarm that we are slipping beyond a tipping point.
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https://www.newsweek.com/durham-report-indicts-deep-state-media-opinion-1801198
Invasion of Russia…I think this is real! [and the had tanks]
“Legion “Freedom of Russia” and Russian Volunteer Corps (RVC) conduct an operation in the Belgorod region – Ukrainian intelligence
Ukrainian State Intelligence Service spokesman Andrei Yusov confirmed to the “Suspilne” newspaper that Legion “Freedom of Russia” and the RVC are conducting an operation to create a “security strip” to protect Ukrainian civilians.
According to him, the operation is carried out exclusively by Russian citizens. Meanwhile, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Putin had been informed about an “attempted breakthrough” into the Belgorod region by “Ukrainian saboteurs.” Earlier, Legion “Freedom of Russia” and the RVC said that their units had “completely liberated” Kozinka in Belgorod Region.”
Ron,
I don’t necessarily have a problem with most of that (221493). It’s the insistence on Trump that’s the non-starter for me. I do think there is a tendency to overstate the threat, but that doesn’t negate the fact that I think there is a kernel of truth there – maybe our bureaucracies are overstepping and maybe the mechanisms for reining them in are insufficient.
Anyway.
From today’s WSJ is an article by Andy Kessler where Sal Khan thinks AI tutoring is 5 years away. I believe Lucia’s AI chatbot questions indicate that it currently can be a helper in tutoring but certainly not in charge.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/ais-education-revolution-khan-academy-tutor-animation-schools-5aec9a5e
The war of attrition in Ukraine continues
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Another Massive Missile Attack | Military Summary And Analysis 2023.05.22
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jTIzoviXi6k
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Wagner Operational Pause | Full Front Update 22/05/23
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OhksT7RD-WA&t=61s
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The number of “game changers” being supplied to Ukraine is continuing to increase. The latest is the F-16, which will have the same strategic effect on the war as all the previous ones: not much.
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Air defense and artillery ammunition stocks available to Ukraine continue to be reduced and NATO is unable to produce the amounts needed by Ukraine over the long term.
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Russia is dug in for a long war on its own terms with the destruction of the Ukraine army its long term goal.
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WWI didn’t end with the allies advancing into Germany. German lines at the point of the armistice were still mostly outside of Germany. The allies won with the attrition of the German army to the point it was unable to continue the fight.
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Ron
All? No. I get it’s your opinion, but no.
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Well, if your interpretation is correct, it would be wise for David to use “awakening”, not “revolution”. Revolution, insurrection, uprising have particular meanings. And no matter what your interpretation of the Jan 6 event, the word “revolution” should be avoided unless you actually mean “revolution”.
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I’m not cutting slack to anyone who says we need a “revolution” and assuming them only mean an “awakening”. Especially not if that person has a perfectly find vocabulary and could have used “awakening”.
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You say some things I don’t disagree with. But none amount to arguments for supporting Trump in anyway shape or form.
To be fair, I’m not 100% sure David originally even used the term ‘revolution’. It might have been me who introduced that idea by suggesting that he sounded like a revolutionary. I’ll go look.
[Edit: Yeah, it was David. here.
Ukraine is going to use as much ammo as you give them. They would fire 100 shells at a single soldier if they could. The trick here is giving them just enough so they use it cost effectively. Russia has the option of using lots of old stock but it will eventually run out.
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I would remind you that Russia lost over 10% of its population in WWII. They know what suffering and wars of attrition are all about. That doesn’t mean the current generation wants that kind of thing in a fight over Ukraine, but it is part of their legacy. That’s why their propaganda is all about existential battles with the west instead of wars of choice on a neighbor. I have no doubt Putin isn’t the least bit worried about the manpower losses except to the extent it causes domestic unrest. He made it clear from the beginning that would be crushed with an iron fist.
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For Ukraine it is an existential battle, all day, all week, all year. It has got to be exhausting for them, a continual crisis.
Marc, It was the OIG that ferreted out the corrupt FBI higher ups responsible for the Russia hoax that caused at least 6 high ups in to be fired. McCabe lost his pension. Of course many of them are now “contributors” at corporate media narrative generation mills.
What you are doing here I think is classic purely negative thinking. If the deep state is a very real problem and we have a dual system of justice (as the Durham report makes clear), you should propose your solution.
Read my Climate Etc. post and get back to me. I really feel that people here are just not aware of the primary sources supporting the idea that action is urgently needed.
With respect guys a lot of this discussion sounds like fault finding and nit picking without really disagreeing with the main points along with refusal to look at the primary sources supporting those main points.
https://judithcurry.com/2023/04/23/how-the-disinformation-industrial-complex-is-destroying-trust-in-science/
It is deeply sourced.
And the nit picking about the word revolution is bizarre. The word covers a broad range of changes. We speak of the “internet revolution” for example or the “computer revolution” or the “industrial revolution.”
David,
A couple of things. ][Edit: three actually]
That the OIG has investigated wrongdoing at the FBI does not mean the OIG is going to implement a partisan ideological purge of the FBI, which is what you appeared to be suggesting earlier.
By no means. You come with the proposition that I should support Trump because you think he’ll do something about the deep state. Support for Trump is the item I take issue with. There is absolutely no necessity for me to provide a solution to the problem you are interested in for me to take issue with the solution you propose and point out problems with it.
I don’t think you understand. You wrote a blog post that linked some links. That does not make you an authority, nor does it impose any sort of duty on your interlocutors to have anything to do with your Climate Etc post. I have read about as much of it as I care to / quick scan. It doesn’t impress me. If arguments or information from sources contained there seem relevant to you, you are free to provide those specifics here. But waving your hand at your blog post elsewhere accomplishes nothing.
David,
Most people aren’t commenting on what you discuss because
(a) it’s not relevant to our opinions about Trump and
(b) we aren’t especially interested in discussing your theories about the “deep state” or whatever.
You may consider discussing your choice to suggest we need a “counter revolution” to be “nit picking”. But I suggest if you don’t want people to think you might be suggesting a “revolution”, you learn to make better word choices. And no, you weren’t discussing the “industrial revolution” or “computer revolution”. You were discussing a political<> revolution. The fact that adding an adjective like computer or industrial can clarify one is not discussing a political revolution doesn’t mean you weren’t discussing a political. And political revolutions are rather specific creatures.
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I stick with my criticism of your word choice.
That some independent journalists wrote some articles that claim action is urgently needed does not constitute evidence of anything.
I could go find articles that claim America is a deeply racist and sexist nation that has been completely ruined by capitalism. These articles are evidence of nothing in particular except the fact that there are writers out there who believe these things.
Lucia,
I agree. Further, David was talking about Republican elected officials being radicalized in this context. It seems like a leap to me to suggest that the computer or industrial revolutions radicalized people. Call me crazy and I get that arguments can be made against this, but when I hear about revolutions and people being ‘radicalized’, I tend to think of political revolutions and not new technology!
Wrong.
David Young, I believe you came over to the Blackboard to publicize your posted thread at Climate Etc. I read it like I do all such posts at Curry’s site. You made some good points there that I think you would have done better at the Blackboard in giving attention to them by discussing those topics in the manner of your initial post at Climate Etc.
You are more argumentative here. You would do better to make an initial post and if there is commenter interest you might add further details without debate. Using Trump as support for your points is a distraction and bad idea.
It’s possible to completely understand an argument and disagree with it at the same time.
BTW, I did mean a revolution in the sense of major changes and housecleaning through lawful processes. I would say Ron DeSantis has lead a revolution in Florida with massive consequences. Teddy Roosevelt led a revolution against the prevailing monopolistic economic system, union busting, and indeed use of private police forces to break strikes. This revolution fundamentally changed the country. This is such an obvious point and it amazing me that you are caviling at a single word.
I don’t care if anyone here comes to support Trump or DeSantis. My purpose here is not to get anyone to support them. I can support either one myself and I explained my view of their unique attributes, but its a free country. I’m arguing that our elites are deeply corrupt and need major reform (a revolution if you will), some of it by government and some of it by simply withdrawing support from these institutions like the corporate media and supporting alternative media like Rumble. I just bought 500 shares of Rumble stock. I’ve spent a lot of time understanding this and going to the definitive sources. If you don’t care, that’s fine with me. If you disagree you are free to do so but you have done a bad job of showing any contradictory evidence. In fact, you have shown no interest in increasing your knowledge of the primary sources at all.
But the fact that our elites are bankrupt is an extremely important issue that informed citizens might want to learn about. In my blog post, I show evidence that even science itself is increasingly corrupted. Most here realize that’s true of climate science, but its much deeper now. This has consequences even for people trying to make medical decisions for themselves.
Ken, Trump comes up here because of things people have said about him that I think are a distraction and beside the point. If you look at my comments at Climate Etc. over the years indeed in responses to my blog post, they are sometimes “argumentative.” That’s especially true when commenters are spreading falsehoods, are uninformed, or are obviously promoting a false narrative.
Marc, Of course finding an article saying something is not proof. Being unwilling to look at any primary sources and judging for yourself is not a sign of someone who cares much. There are lots of sources for this from even the Columbia Journalism Review by Matt Gerth that details the Russia hoax in great detail. The issue here is that the weight of the evidence is getting overwhelming with the Twitter files and the Durham report. The fact that lefties like Taibbi and Greenwald have been reporting this is also a good sign its not a partisan or a Trump thing. Greenwald is if anything an advocate of free speech and he is against the US security state. That means he dislikes Dick Cheney and Adam Schiff equally.
Ron Graf,
“I am just wondering if your are reading too much into the west’s strategy.”
Yes, that is entirely possible. My military training consisted of wearing beads and burning incense at anti-war rallies in the 1960s.
Let me explain why I think the threat of future F-16s might deter Russia from employing their Jet fighter in ground attack mode in the upcoming Ukraine ground offensive. The Russian jet attack aircraft were used only sparingly to combat the Ukrainian offensive last Summer and Fall. The conventional wisdom was the ground anti-air defense and Stinger Manpads [?Womenpads] would shoot down some number of the precious fighters. These same fighters are a major part of the defense against aggressor air attacks everywhere in Russia. If the US sent its air force to bomb Moskow, the Russian air force would rise to stop it.
Ukraine claims to have shot down 309 fixed-wing aircraft so far; ORYX has picture confirmation of 92 fixed-wing aircraft downed. The ORYX number includes not only 11 of the SU-30 and 20 of the SU-34 multi-role fighters but also a few top-of-the-line pure fighters like the SU-35S and the MiG-31BM.
The F-16 has a cruising speed of 577 mph and can reach Moskow in forty minutes from central Ukraine and they are kicking around a total number of 70 aircraft. I think this is mostly about getting Russia to keep its air force out of harm’s way to conserve it for the defense of the motherland from the many foes it faces. [There may not actually be any F-16s on the table, it may all be a ruse.]
RonDavid,Fair enough. If you think I don’t care enough about this issue you think is important, well. I’m sure I don’t care enough by your estimation. FWIW, I had already read (like many others I’m sure) many of the articles you linked before I ever saw your post. But you got me there – I don’t care nearly as much about this topic as you do, that’s quite true.
— edited by LML
Lol. I meant to address that to David of course. My apologies.
David
Sure. And I am mostly ignoring all that bit. You aren’t telling us anything new, saying it in more interesting ways or providing any greater insight than the many conversations about that going on elsewhere.
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I do read discussions on this general topic by people other than you. The main distinction between your writings and those I do spend time reading is your use of name calling and generic labels and hyperbole.
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If I had wanted to discuss this topic, I would have done it at Climate etc, where you wrote a blog post.
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This is an open thread and you are free to drone on. But be aware that the lack of other people jumping in can often mean that they are ignoring most of what you write.
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You lay his name into your conversations proposing him as the cure to the things you think are wrong. People– like me and others– jump in– because whether the Trump gets nominated or elected is actually important. Meanwhile, the rest of what you write is mostly just “ho… hum”.
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The first sentence appears to be untrue. You seem to have appeared here to try to make people care about your ideas.
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Of course people who don’t care aren’t going to waste time presenting counter arguments or digging up evidence.
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Of course people who don’t care about your way of discussing things aren’t going to spend time following links to things you call primary sources about the topic they don’t care about!
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And, for what it’s worth, I think especially when you are discussing something that is both political and advocated for the future you should avoid calling for a “revolution”. You can try to justify the use all you want, but you will inevitably give people the impression you are calling for something like “The French Revolution”, “The Communist Revolution”, “The American Revolution” and so on. Misunderstanding that you don’t really mean people should take up up arms can’t be made when you use the term to describe something in the past. But it sure as heck can be made when you are proposing something for the future and we have, in the recent past, had various levels of violence (including BLM fires, Antifa riots and the disorganized mess on Jan 6.)
I think you’d more accurately term it a counter-revolution. The revolution has already taken place, with mass violence followed by a rapid deployment of the commissars of the new order, the Office of Diversity, Inclusion and Equity, through all levels of society. I know in Portland, the Office was attempting to appoint itself as supreme authority, through which all laws and regulations must pass, to assess their adherence to its ideology. The tenets of equity are in direct conflict with pre-existing tenets of equality, for one to succeed, the other must fail.
David,
Ok. You’ve complained about people not discussing your comments. I’ll give a more thorough reaction.
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Sure.
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I guess if I am to become a disciple in your revolution, I must stop reading the corporate media like Wall Street Journal, CNN, and The Chicago Tribune and which ever “corporate” sites show up when I google “Ukraine war” or “Harry and Meghan” and instead watch the sort of long winded, aimless videos I could watch on Youtube, and instead start watching equally aimless rambling videos on Rumble. Gotcha.
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I see the featured video on Rumble is “Stocks on Tilt, Crypto Bouncing & Billionaire Blowup”. I can also watch “Let’s Unbox & Play the Valis Collection On Genesis From Retro-bit!” and “Drama baby cries when mom pretends to bang head on door”.
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This is the sort of useless advice I am certainy not going to follow no matter how many links to “primary sources” you drop.
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So, if I watch aimless videos on Rumble instead of reading the Wall Street Journal, the price of your shares might rise. Sounds great.
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Sure. And after all this time and digging, your advice is I should watch videos on Rumble.
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Well, the “elites” is a pretty broad label that is simultaneously vague, sweeping and derisive. It’s that sort of use of language that really reveals the depths of your insight.
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For what it’s worth: People aren’t telling you the behavior of the press, politicians, and federal and state agencies is unimportant. They are mostly just ignoring you. When people ignore you, it tends to mean your posts about the issue don’t seem to be worth their time to read, digest.
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I skimmed your blog post. It seemed rambling and all over the place. Sort of the political equivalent of trying to create the grand unified field theory. Or maybe string theory. I’m sure that work is important, but I ignore it too.
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As I previously wrote: If I had been fascinated by what you write, I would have discussed it. Likely, I would have discussed at Climate etc. where a number of people interested in the topic and your writings had collected together to read it.
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Not following the rabbit holes you create or engaging you is not evidence that a person is unwilling to look at primary sources. It only means they don’t think links you drop tend to be worth the time to follow. If you are disappointed in their reaction to your writing, learn to write more persuasively, convincingly and so on. Or learn to just accept that not everyone is going to drop everything to read every word you write. Or learn to be satisfied with the audience who does read your post over at Climate Etc. Or something.
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Accusing others of being unwilling to read the links you drop of “not carring”. Oh. Well.
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Has anyone here said: “Oh Geeh David! Thanks for informing me there was a Russian Hoax. I never knew that?” or “Thanks for telling me about Taibbi and Greenwald. Before you, I never heard of them.” or “Geeh, I didn’t know who Dick Cheny or Adam Schiff were!” “You are such a trove of unique information! The scales have fallen from my eyes!”
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The answer is no they haven’t said it here because none of this is new information unavailable at all sorts of places and most of us are aware of all of this stuff.
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People skim and bother to contradict you when you end up saying things about how great Trump is because whether he gets elected matters. And people bother to comment when you use aggressive language that is potentially dangerous– like calling for future political revolution. You may not like that those are the only bits they comment on, but they get to decide what to comment on.
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I hope you are happy with my more thorough comment. That’s a stream of consciousness rendition of what goes through my mind when I read them. I generally just think… not worth commenting. I’m mostly going to go back to my previous habit of only commenting on the small portions of what you write that matter.
“Uber puts its diversity head on leave after employees voice fury at events titled ‘Don’t Call Me Karen’
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Bo Young Lee has headed up Uber’s DEI department for the past five years but recently came under fire for moderating two events titled “Don’t Call Me Karen”.
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The events were billed as “diving into the spectrum of the American white woman’s experience” and featured conversations with white women at the company who sought to have an “open and honest conversation about race”.
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A ‘Karen’ is a term coined online for an entitled white woman, who threatens to report BAME (Black, Asian, and minority ethnic) individuals to authorities or complains about staff to their managers—in short, unnecessarily inserting themselves into situations and causing conflict with their prejudices.
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Uber staffers who attended the two events—the first held last month, the second last week—said they felt they had been lectured on the difficulties experienced by white women and why ‘Karen’ was a derogatory term.
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Following the first ‘Karen’ event, a black employee raised the question of how Uber would prevent “tone-deaf, offensive and triggering conversations” from becoming embedded into diversity initiatives.
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According to notes taken by an employee during the all-hands discussion, Lee responded: “Sometimes being pushed out of your own strategic ignorance is the right thing to do.”
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Messages obtained by the New York Times on Slack channels for Black and Hispanic employees at the transport services company read: “I felt like I was being scolded for the entirety of that meeting.”
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/uber-puts-diversity-head-leave-110131476.html
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“On leave” for taking her job title out of its intended context. If the situation had been reversed, those complaining would simply have been accused of being “fragile” and closed to the required “difficult conversations” detailing what bad people they are, in other words, overt racists.
I agree wholeheartedly with Lucia, if anyone cares to know my viewpoint on this, she nails it in her two comments above (221514 and 221516)
DaveJR,
That’s actually pretty funny.
“The F-16 has a cruising speed of 577 mph and can reach Moskow in forty minutes from central Ukraine”
This surprising nugget was lost in my verbose response to Ron Graf.
From USAF:
“In an air-to-surface role, the F-16 can fly more than 500 miles (860 kilometers), deliver its weapons with superior accuracy, defend itself against enemy aircraft, and return to its starting point.”
Moskow Range Map:
https://twitter.com/rklier21/status/1661015769222909952?s=20
All of Western Russia is in range. I don’t actually think that will happen, but the Russians have to plan for the possibility.
Russell, thanks for clarifying the reasoning behind your thought that the F-16s green light could be a possible rouse. That makes a lot of sense. It’s essentially like any military feint designed to pin forces in the wrong place for defense to prevent them from being utilized for the real battle. That could well be the intention, but Russia also has massive air defense systems besides interceptors. I agree that the US will be the last to cough up F-16s, just like they are the last to supply the main battle tanks. I think this is in line with the main strategy of getting Europe to be the first to cross new lines of escalation in order to avoid giving Russia the support for the use of the narrative of the war being with the US.
T Roosevelt got the ball rolling for the modern day Progressives.
https://mises.org/library/why-understanding-progressive-era-still-matters
Mark:
Lucia:
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Mark, I think the first easy step toward any solution for all is to acknowledge the other person’s points, including the ones you agree with. This helps narrow the focus of discussion and makes it more productive.
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Lucia, one’s chosen news feed has huge relevance to the impression one develops about US politics today. This is the whole point of the dis-information industrial complex that Taibbi, Greenwald, Shellenberg and many others are exposing. There are some here who still pay for the NYT and I suppose then read it. The NYT and WaPo were used by corrupt FBI heads to plant false stories in order for them to cite those stories in secret FISAs against their political opponents. The opening of fake investigation could then be leaked to the same media to support the original leak which would produce reporting that would confirm the FISA. This process was used over and over for really the entire Trump presidency, for which the NYT was awarded the Pulitzer Prize. This and other tools are what the CIA used to only use to attack adversarial regimes in other countries.
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There has been no apology by the NYT or the Pulitzer Foundation. Here is the Columbia Law Review series by Jeff Gerth (a veteran NYT reporter) that David and I have been referencing because this is not Rumble or some Twitter guy. This is as mainstream center left as one can get. I think Gerth is being charitable and I have much more disturbing facts on the topic than he points out. But reading this is not a waste of your time.
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If everyone can agree on the problem I can then better explain why a Trump second presidency would be a reasonable solution. I also support all the other declared candidates, including Tim Scott.
Ron
Sure. And now for more on David’s chosen links.
Oh, the joys of even trying to follow David’s rabbit-hole links. I chose this paragraph haphazardly. It’s the only one I “dug into”. But I think it’s useful for illustrating a point about David’s links to “primary sources” being little more than rabbit holes.
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Here is a paragraph by David:
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Let’s look at the “primary sources”.
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Start with [12] https://public.substack.com/p/inside-the-censorship-industrial
I visited the link. It’s pay walled. I clicked…. gave my email in the hopes of some sort of access. I got an email that says
“Dear Friend, Welcome to Public! We hope you enjoy it! Warmly, Michael and Leighton ”
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I revisited the link. It still asked me to upgrade to pay. I have no clue how to access my free view. I am asked to upgrade to paid. (No. I’m not going to pay.)
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Well… sorry David, but this is a pretty big effort the read what you promise will be a “excellent deep dive into the way the leaders of this complex view themselves.” For the time being, I’ll have to take your word for it being an excellent deep dive.
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On to [14]
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/guide-understanding-hoax-century-thirteen-
ways-looking-disinformation
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This is an article called:
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A Guide to Understanding the Hoax of the Century
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This is a long rambling opinion piece whose author clearly wants to write “colorfully” on the topic of “the Hoax of the Century”. It starts “In 1950, Sen. Joseph McCarthy claimed that he had proof of a communist spy ring operating inside the government.” Oh great… McCarthyism. This is never going to make a point. We are treated to sentences like “Something in the looming specter of Donald Trump and the populist movements of 2016 reawakened sleeping monsters in the West. ”
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We are treated to a snippet of a poem…
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“When the blackbird flew out of sight,
It marked the edge
Of one of many circles.”
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Followed by a 13 roman indexed sections on…. the author’s opinions.
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I guess this ginormously long winded polemic becomes a “primary source” when cited as [13] after David’s claim: “This is just a new and much more pervasive form of Red baiting [13]”. I mean, [13] did start by alluding to McCarthy.
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And now for [14]. https://twitter.com/davidzweig/status/1607378386338340867
It is a tweetstream discussing Twitter’s secret blacklists. It’s perhaps worth reading.
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People here can visit the tweet stream and wonder how that link makes sense as support the extremely general and rather broad claim of ” Of course, science often is the subject of these censors”.
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My reaction to these David’s links:
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They give the appearance of “scholarly” and “researched” while pointing to rambling items that are not germain to the specific points David is trying to make. These links appear to be what David refers to as “primary sources” which he criticises us for not being interested in reading. Of course they are “primary sources”– after all anything written can be a primary source in the correct context.
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They are nevertheless tangential rabbit holes that seems to be digressing from the claims that would otherwise appear bald. In essence David’s claims remain bald since merely writing [3] after a statement doesn’t automatically provide “support”.
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Is it possible I’d have found wonderful links had I picked some other paragraph. I just picked at random. But honestly, I don’t buy the notion that I am failing to inform myself on important matters because I don’t follow David’s links.. Following those links is just a tiring waste of time.
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So yes, Ron, you are correct that what one reads matters. But when I visit links David gives, I discover they are not worth reading.
Ken, thanks for that quote. I don’t doubt that Roosevelt’s trust busting was a bit selective. I did not know he was in Morgan’s pocket. I am interested in what other evidence is presented of this, not that I would dispute the possibility that Teddy was in some fashion indebted to his supporters (i.e. corrupt).
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Ken, if you don’t mind a question, who do you think owns Trump? The left set up the answer as Putin, and half the country still is sticking to it. Or, do you think corruption is not the most important fault a president could have?
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Lucia, yours and Mark’s assumption about David’s use of the word revolution is a good example of my endeavor to look for the most reasonable definition behind word usage or phraseology, rather than the most unreasonable. Revolution to me can mean any abrupt change, as opposed to evolution being that of gradual change. There are bloodless political revolutions in western countries and even in the former Soviet ones.
Ron
What new thing do you think I’ll learn? That the russian hoax was a hoax? That the main stream media reported it as if it were not? That the word “fake news” was coined? That the credibility of the main stream media has declined among the American people? That Hunter Biden’s laptop was real?
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We all know these things. No one here has disagreed with you on that. No one. Contrary to your insinuations, we are not uninformed about those things.
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The only thing people are telling you is: That doesn’t make Trump a good candidate for 2024. Nor does it make Trump a good person, great president, flawless, yada, yada. People are contradicting you when you make those sorts of claims. Sorry, but you can say “2+2=4” over and over, it does not make “4+5= 149”. We get to contradict you on the latter. That doesn’t imply we disagree with “2+2=4”, are uninformed about it or don’t understand the context.
Ron
First: I made no assumption about the word. I advised that the word should be used with caution. I stick to that.
Words need to be used in context. And writers need to understand that their word choice includes subtext. His choice of “revolution” is a very poor one, especially in the context of the polemical language he uses.
Ron
I’m not Ken, but why do you ask? I mean… who do you think owns Brad Pitt? Or who do you think owns John Cleese? Who owns Laurie Lightfoot? Or me? Or you?
Also: why do you ask? Insanity would be a pretty big fault. Trying to set aside democratic elections is a pretty big fault. Inciting a riot is a pretty big fault. Even valorizing a riot is pretty bad. Excusing political violence is pretty bad. Attempting or succeeding at a Putsch would be pretty bad. Implementing a policy of exterminatng an ethnic group would be pretty bad.
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Corruption is bad. But is it “the most important fault”? Depends a bit on what you call corruption. But think lots of the things I list (and likely more) could be said to be worse than some things some people might lump into “corruption”. And my list is rather more specific.
Some comments on the coming use of F-16’s in Ukraine and the problems that come with their use.
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https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/05/f-16s-to-ukraine.html
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Anyone familiar with the best way to get an 80lb+ package shipped from the UK to SC by any chance?
~grins~ I’m busy with formal testing at work today and tomorrow but it looks like Lucia has the side of the discussion I’d advance well in hand.
mark,
I’m on my way out to a dance lesson. So I probably won;t post anything long for a bit.
What you want is a governing system that deals with corruption properly, not a wrecking ball political actor. That is the very last resort.
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There will always be corrupt actors, and Trump will certainly have his fair share. Replacing one group of corrupt people with another isn’t progress, it is musical chairs.
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The FBI behaved badly in some instances and a good number of people were fired for their efforts. That is the system working properly. As much as I love beating up the media, we did find out all about Hunter Biden through the media, although a number of them would have buried that story given the choice. The diversity of the media still made that happen.
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I think enough good people exist at these agencies to allow for them to uncover overt corruption. We don’t know what we don’t know of course, but the agencies must be given a fair chance to deal with these problems. It’s better to think of corruption as a constant problem that must be managed, than something that can be eliminated if only we could dynamite the place and start over.
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I don’t think we are at a point we need to burn the place down. The US still does well on a corruption index globally.
Tom Scharf,
“I think enough good people exist at these agencies to allow for them to uncover overt corruption. ”
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I have sincere doubts about that.
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The FBI (and probably the CIA) knew, long before the information became public, that the Hunter Biden laptop was genuine and that it proved Joe Biden guilty of at least malfeasance in office, if not outright criminal corruption. They hid that damaging information from the public for well over a year, and provided political cover for Biden (warning social media companies to look out for ‘disinformation’ about Hunter Biden) when they learned the contents of the laptop would soon become public.
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Not a peep, not a leak, not an autonomous sourced story for over a year…. nothing. Compare that to the constant stream of damaging (and mostly false) leaks from the ‘intelligence community’ that Trump faced. It tells me nobody at the FBI or CIA was willing to risk Joe Biden losing the election in 2020. They have been actively interfering in electoral politics, and have completely lost my trust.
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For the future of the country, IMHO the FBI has to be drastically reduced in size and its scope restricted. Putting the headquarters in a small town in Texas or Florida would be a plus.
Although I think this video is a bit misleading (it matters when people said the things they did) it doesn’t age well, and the people who said these things with certainty were proven wrong, and are unrepentant and were never held accountable. Everyone is going to remember this next time around, that is the damage.
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THE UNVACCINATED | “Nobody is Safe!”
https://youtu.be/zI3yU5Z2adI
There is little doubt that the IC and DOJ leaks have been very one sided for about ten years. There is no excuse for it, I think the media needs to be compelled to give up their sources when these leaks are proven wrong or intentionally misleading. The media should do this voluntarily, but I’m not against them being legally forced to do so in egregious “killed by being hit in the head with a fire extinguisher” cases.
DaveJR: “Anyone familiar with the best way to get an 80lb+ package shipped from the UK to SC by any chance?”
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I have used this for years for shipments 11-150 lbs. When you know the package is ready and have the weight you call the hotline and get a quote, which lasts for 3 business days associated with your Fedex account. If you don’t have one you might be able to use the shipper’s. https://www.fedex.com/en-us/great-rates.html
Edit: Be sure to ask for quotes on all service options. Sometimes the faster service is actually cheaper.
Tom, I liked your video link. We forget so quickly how the news media, entertainment media and entire government, state and federal, were willing to discard people’s rights of travel, healthcare and even employment. And, they not only spoke with one voice but from the same script.
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As I think I mentioned before, my awakening came when were told the four killed at a US diplomatic annex in Benghazi was unclear as to what happened. Mitt Romney called it an attack the day afterward and was scolded by the White House and then MSM for jumping the gun before the official assessment was done. The world waited for a couple days until Susan Rice went on all the Sunday news shows to tell us the “true story” and scold those who spread disinformation. We only know today that was complete BS because a CIA contractors that survived the attack got through to Fox News a few days later and the GOP controlled House was able to investigate. Despite this knowledge the bulk of Americans did not hear the true story until weeks, months after the November 2012 election. Romney was completely unprepared for the second debate’s moderator, Candy Crowley, to fact check him live to counter his assertion that Obama had not been honest about the attack in Benghazi. https://www.politico.com/story/2012/10/seeking-control-crowley-fact-checks-mitt-082512
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That was a perfect example of what has been happening over and over again to the GOP ever since. They just cannot wrap their heads around the fact that the legacy media, USIC and Democrat party are in bed together. Add academia to that, charged with miseducating our children.
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Tom S:
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I really don’t see this as a both sides do it argument. There is clearly one side that has control and is completely corrupt. There is another side that gets caught colluding with Putin, caught on tape asking the Ukraine leader for assistance in looking into corruption of US officials dealings in Ukraine, inciting people to peacefully protest a corrupt election, not surrendering documents fast enough to the National Archives (in contradiction to the Presidential Records Act), to illegally reimbursing his lawyer for paying for a non-disclosure agreement (for which the lawyer was prosecuted and disbarred).
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Lucia:
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Ken was making a point, I believe, that TR was in the pocket of JP Morgan. He can correct me if he was making a different point. My point was that a lot of politicians owe debts to powerful backers. In that case, which powerful backer is Trump indebted to? I think he did not answer because he did not have a good answer. The left filled that gap fictitiously with Putin. (That actually happened though I can’t believe it as I am typing it.) For that reason it will be easy to deny for the left as they write our history books.
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Ron DeSantis is announcing his run tomorrow with his number one backer, the richest person in the world. I have no problem with either but I can see the ready built narrative for the Dem historians to point out that this is not unusual for America’s past corrupt presidents like TR.
Ron Graf,
There is zero evidence DeSantis is corrupt. To suggest that he is somehow beholden to Musk is pure bullshit. DeSantis backers are the overwhelming majority of Florida voters who have watched him govern.
Ron Graf,
From CNN in February:
“En route to raising $213 million for his reelection, the most ever by a non-self-funded gubernatorial candidate, DeSantis collected nearly 300 donations of six figures or higher.”
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DeSantis gets 300 donors who give over $100,000 (many of those over a million), and you conclude DeSantis is in the pocket of Musk? I get that you love Trump, but please stop the endless BS. It is ridiculous and irritating.
Ron
If that’s your point, perhaps just make it rather than being obscure.
Or, quite likely, he is not here at the blog every second of his life. Or it was a stupid rhetorical question that you posted thinking it made a point (which no one could divine.)
Thanks, Ron, I’ll look into it.
North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper declares ‘state of emergency’ over school choice bill
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“It’s time to declare a State of Emergency for public education in North Carolina. There’s no Executive Order like with a hurricane or the pandemic, but it’s no less important,” Cooper stated.
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“It’s clear that the Republican legislature is aiming to choke the life out of public education. I’m declaring this state of emergency because you need to know what’s happening. If you care about public schools in North Carolina, it’s time to take immediate action and tell them to stop the damage that will set back our schools for a generation.”
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https://archive.ph/ywZGc#selection-1503.0-1525.192
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Of course, Mr Cooper already takes advantage of school choice. He sends his kids private.
He doesn’t say what sort of immediate action does people should take. There is no election coming up immediately. So “tell them”. Maybe write letters? Or pull their kids out of school for the day and have a demonstration in front of the legislature?
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I guess we’ll see if anyone in NC protests the scheme.
I’m also going to look to see if the private schools are “unaccountable”. A fair number of these schemes do limit which private schools can get the fees based on certain criteria. These can include some standardized testing or requiring certain subjects in the curriculum.
This seems to be the house version of the bill:
https://ncleg.gov/BillLookUp/2023/H823
I don’t know if “filed” is the current one? There are also versions 1-4.
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I’m not seeing any requirements for what constitutes a “school”. It may be elsewhere. (Sometimes these nest.)
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I would prefer to see some requirements for what constitutes “a school” and what subjects kids must take. (Reading, arthimetic….) And possibly some requirements for testing.
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I think ideally, state testing should be done somewhat external to the school itself, but that’s actually impractical.
Ron Graf (Comment #221552)
T Roosevelt policies were a forerunner of today’s Progressive movement by way of promoting more government control over the economy. The so-called trust busting was a major part of that movement. That Roosevelt applied that policy unevenly was a matter of his personal integrity and shows that even if the policy in general was wrong-headed, its application, as is frequently the case where government power is increased, was less than Civics 101 honest.
Ron, feel free to engage directly in a discussion of early 20th century Progressive movement.
SteveF, to clarify my last sentence of my last comment, I have no problem with DeSantis or Musk. I don’t think either are corrupt. I don’t even think the Dem media needs to believe so themselves in order to make the implication. After all, they did so with Trump and Putin from 2016 to the present day.
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Ton Scharf:
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It’s very true that corruption is a natural force that creeps into any person or organization with power and ability to ward off checks to its power. Trump is surely the most investigated person on the planet. I think his tax returns and asset statements have likely been poured over by scores of liberal forensic accountants. The best they came up with is that some foreign state visitors checked in at a Trump owned hotel, or that a bank loan showed what the accountants considered an optimistic real estate valuation of a property. The NY DA prosecuted despite the bank application purported to having a disclaimer on valuations. Let’s compare that with sicking the IRS on the Tea Party start ups in 2010-2012, or the Andy McCabe “insurance policy” against Trump’s presidency, or the millions of dollars of “seed capital” from a CCP linked company that distributed money to shell companies under Hunter Biden’s control. But I understand that Trump bad mouthed a woman who wrote a book claiming that he raped her in a department store so we can’t have that.
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Lucia, I appreciate that you did list the particular items that you said could be considered corruption here:
https://www2.ed.gov/about/inits/ed/non-public-education/regulation-map/northcarolina.html
If test data is aggregated and test outcomes published, parents would be able to get information on the school performance. I think this should be a requirement.
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Strikes me the schools are accountable to show they teach kids the requisite stuff we want schools to teach. I seems to me that is a sufficient degree of accountability to be worth of taxpayer money in the form of vouchers.
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I guess I’d like more clarity in schools being required to make aggregate data available publicly. I’d want to see how the school did for 4 years in a row when deciding about my kid. But perhaps the state is doing that. Most states do publish average outcomes, or some information on % at grade level and so on.
As for things like this:
And if you are using “we” as including more than just “Ron”, “we” don’t all agree with your assessments. If, in contrast you are using the “royal we”, perhaps, since you are not the reigning monarch you could change that to “I”.
Thanks for letting us know what Tucker’s thought and was fired for.
Writing things in bold does not make them true. I’ve said nothing about Trump’s “fine people” comment. And no, this
Isn’t similar to Trump’s “fine people” comment. And you “thinking” there is some similarity doesn’t make me somehow have inadvertently used the “fine people” statement.
Lucia,
It is not surprising that Ron’s view regarding the past conversation and the conclusions ‘we’ reached are almost completely divorced from reality, given that Ron’s views regarding Trump and his attempts to overturn the last election are also almost completely divorced from reality.
Ron also: correction
That wasn’t a list of what could be considered corruption. It was a list of things that might be worse than corruption. Insanity is clearly not “corruption”. And once again: it was an answer to your question of whether corruption “is not the most important fault “.
The answer is : no. There are worse faults. I gave a partial list.
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Why you think that list constituted attacks on Trump I don’t know. You asked a general question, I gave a general answer.
Tom, I believe that a government system and particularly one that can hide behind secrecy is not about to heal itself. The FBI, in particular, is no longer a law enforcement agency but rather a security agency. We have too many security agencies already and I think the existence of the FBI is a legitimate argument to have.
In the not too distant past the FBI was more favored by the Republicans (don’t ask me why) than the Democrats, but since it now appears to be favoring the left wing and it’s causes, the current intelligentsia and the Democrat party is not going to admit to any problems it has and certainly not systemic ones. Any changes will have to come about through arguments counter to the those from the MSM and academia. I doubt that the Republican Party is capable of making those arguments but there are intellectuals who can. Their limitation is that of being heard.
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mark
Yes. Which is why it would be vastly preferable if he wrote “I” rather than “we”.
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I’m also mystified why Ron keeps on bringing up the Trump’s “fine people” episode. As far as I’m aware, not a single other person here has written anything what so ever about it. Perhaps I’m wrong.
Oh darn, Moscow’s economic woes are deepening.
From The Wilson Center:
“Putin’s created an economic crisis and left Moscow no easy way out”
“Because government fiscal policy and a dysfunctional legal system won’t allow small- and medium-sized businesses to lead Russia out of recession, that leaves Russia’s big state corporations — the bedrock of Putin’s policy of state capitalism — to show the way. Thanks to sanctions, however, Russian companies and banks are busy seeking bailouts, not new markets.”
“Western sanctions have left Russia in dire financial circumstances — stuck somewhere between recession and stagnation. Though proven solutions exist for what now ails Russia, President Vladimir Putin’s geo-strategic and political choices have rendered these traditional economic approaches unworkable.”
https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/putins-created-economic-crisis-and-left-moscow-no-easy-way-out
Lucia,
I think at some point Ron decided that something you or I said was wrong in an analogous way to people misrepresenting Trump’s ‘fine people on both sides’ statement. I don’t think I made any effort to actually run this down, because I didn’t (and still don’t really) care that that’s Ron’s opinion.
[Edit: Oh, sorry. You know this because you’ve explicitly addressed this already. Beg your pardon.]
mark,
Ron definitely has a bad habit of posting counter-arguments to think he thinks someone somewhere (other than here) wrote.
So I’m hearing that DeSantis is now “officially” worse than Trump! Didn’t see that coming!
Lucia, here is my logic train:
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1) Corruption if the number one concern. Greed for power and money are ever present and insatiable. “Power corrupts.” The only answer to fight this foe is to separate power and set factions in competition to check each other’s power. This was the overall objective in our republic’s construction. As Ken pointed out this guiding principle has been undermined to some degree by the evolutionary growth of government power, which then weakens the people’s check on government. I would add that it also weakens the legislative branch’s check on the executive, as it becomes too big to oversee. If one accepts this then our current state of affairs puts liberty in the most precarious spot that it has ever been in.
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2) In the natural tendency to consolidate power checks are eroded or compromised. We can see this most clearly with the capture of academia and the MSM. Although we still have alternative news media many formerly free countries had alternative news media until it was stamped out. Hong Kong lost their last outlet last year. That is the end. That is when things go dark. We are too close to that for comfort. This I believe is what motivated Musk to buy Twitter. Tucker’s firing is ominous.
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3) If one accepts that the most serious problem in the US and western world is the threat to self-governance then things like 6 week abortion ban versus 12 week ban do not make it into ones top considerations for candidate support, IMO. The drive for consolidation of power is not for the purpose of any single issue. It is a natural egocentrism that drives one to believe that power belongs in the hands of an elite intelligentsia rather than the unwashed, unenlightened, selfish (ironically), commoner. All totalitarianism has this spoken or unspoken justification, whether right or left. As it progresses, its feeling the forces resisting it as the fulfillment of its own prophecy for the need for its consolidation, to ward off the evil others opposing progress.
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4) Therefore opposing power with force only makes it stronger. This is why Ghandi and MLK succeeded with peaceful protest. But even those methods are useless in places like China and NK. If you agree with my assessment of the danger we face. Then that is a starting point. Who is the best leader to bring a revolution or awakening of reform? I would say it was the leader who could most be trusted not become discouraged or disheartened by the MSM attack, one that would be highest moral against corruption and one who could command the broadest support of the common man. I see all the GOP presidential candidates as potentially qualified, including the red haired one. He currently is a imperfect but completely known quantity.
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DeSantis has made some questionable moves though I support him. Newsmax, which I switched on last night, seems to be behind Trump and not so hot on DeSantis. He will need to change that. Dick Morris believes that DeSantis is trying to get to the right of Trump with the 6-week abortion ban and calling the Ukraine war a “territorial dispute.” Morris said the Dems will support DeSantis in the primary and portray him is being to the right of Trump in the general (unelectable). Of course, a lot of people feel the opposite, that the MSM will be more favorable to Trump until the general election. We can only hope they spend their powder on Biden rather than each other.
Ron
Well… that’s alot of ipse dixit.
“We” disagree. But presumably you mean that’s your major concern.
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Sure. And greed for power often leads to nepotism– like hiring your daughter, son in law or other relatives for jobs when they have no previous qualifications.
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Well… I think I’ve pointed out that things aren’t either/or.
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And I think threat to self-governance is one of the reason people oppose Trump (who tries to set aside the results of elections and seems to not discourage rioting if it’s by people he likes.)
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And the above is true even if you think the steps Trump took are “legal” or he didn’t need to do or say anything to discourage or disapprove of the tumult on Jan 6. There are many choices for president and one need not endorse one whose behavior has been suspicious.
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Not sure what “that” refers to here. So I don’t know what you think is the “starting point” of… something…
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Justification? No. Totalitarianism has been advanced for many other reasons. One has been to “to oppose injustice” or merely to consolidate power of one person, family or group with no real claim to being an “intelligensia”. Julius Ceasar didn’t appoint himself dictator to promote the “intelligensia”. You are just historically inaccurate. (No, I’m not going to put down a list of every dictator ever just because you make a wrong, unsupported bald claim.)
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Or perhaps natural egocentrism leads one to believe power belongs in the hands of your family and friends, which leads to nepotism and cronyism.
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Honestly, I don’t know what the specific danger you are suggesting. The “intelligensia” will be appointed?
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Giving a name would provide more clarity here. I don’t think Prince Harry is running. In any case, he doesn’t meet the constitutional qualifications for office. I don’t think my brother or sister are running either. I haven’t kept track of which candidates hair might be red.
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That was a lot of paragraphs, and numbered. You express a series of opinidns and quite a few bald unsupported claims. I have no idea what actual major points you are trying to make.
Busy day on and over the Black Sea.
“Russia’s Defence Ministry said on Wednesday that the Russian warship Ivan Hurs had been attacked by Ukrainian uncrewed speedboats in the Black Sea, on the approaches to the Bosphorus strait.
In a statement posted on Telegram, ther ministry said the warship had been protecting the TurkStream and Blue Stream gas pipelines, which carry gas from Russia to Turkey, partly across the Black Sea.
All enemy boats were destroyed by fire from the standard armament of a Russian ship 140 km northeast of the Bosphorus,” (Reporting by Reuters; Editing by Kevin Liffey)
In the air:
-British spy plane, two fighters, and a tanker
-US spy drone
-Russian big transport plane
Screenshots:
https://twitter.com/rklier21/status/1661389045820170243?s=20
I assume this activity may all be related, but that is just an assumption.
Russel,
Uncrewed? Interesting.
I’ve been interested in the stories that suggest anti-Putin Russian’s have joined the fray.
I find private school testing requirements rather humorous. I acknowledge this a good requirement, but schools in Chicago and NYC do this, they utterly fail at it, and the only action taken by public schools is to ask for more money, try to cripple the high achievers, and find ways to cheat.
Tom,
The reason I think there should be testing at all schools that receive funding is to ensure parents can read outcomes. Schools can then put their spin on it.
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Of course public schools will put their spin on it. But, whatever the reason, a school where kids don’t learn to read or add is a school where kids don’t learn to read or add.
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This is a reason I think, ideally, the tests should be supervised by someone outside the school. At the same time: That is likely difficult, possibly to the point of unworkable.
I agree the FBI needs some reform and the entire secret FISA court needs to be abandoned. A good deal of corruption is hidden behind a veil of a need for secrecy. I’d rather take the hit on secrecy and have transparency in (almost) all cases. My point is that the FBI did take actions and high profile actors were fired.
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The IC is not taking action against their political leakers and I am repulsed by this. My wrecking ball is all fueled up and started for that place. I am not even certain who would miss the place if the entire organization disappeared. They are at the point they need to justify their existence. They probably can, but they need to get the message their lives are at stake.
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That they even consider formalizing a Ministry of Truth is a gigantic red flag.
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If we want enduring effective institutions they need to be able to police themselves effectively before a wrecking ball is required. I’m seeing signs to warm up the wrecking ball, just not there yet myself. The existence of corruption doesn’t mean the system has failed, we need to watch closely how they handle it.
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I think that DC has become too insular and leans far too progressive and urban oriented. I’d like to see the bulk of DC bureaucracy “off-citied” across the country. It’s harder to be corrupt at the top with distributed leadership.
Enlightening findings, reported by the WSJ:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/notable-quotable-misconceptions-on-critical-race-theory-color-blindness-c4ce508f?st=7xfku9h9ntmlu84&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
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“The USC survey revealed even more. Most Americans know little about the tenets of CRT. The largest source of public confusion is the mistaken belief that CRT embraces the principle of color blindness. Nine out of ten Americans told the USC survey team that they favor treating all Americans equally without regard to race, yet 84 percent also mistakenly said that CRT proponents embrace this same color-blind ethos.
“Despite the explicit opposition of CRT to colorblindness,” the authors noted, “more than 80% of [Americans] who claimed to have heard of CRT either did not know that colorblindness is not aligned to CRT or were wrong and thought that it was.” What’s more, “this was the only [survey question] for which most respondents confidently answered but were incorrect.”
🙂
“…“Western sanctions have left Russia in dire financial circumstances — stuck somewhere between recession and stagnation. Though proven solutions exist for what now ails Russia, President Vladimir Putin’s geo-strategic and political choices have rendered these traditional economic approaches unworkable.”…”
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This from part of the same group that last year proclaimed the Ruble is Ruble and are directly responsible for our own current financial problems.
Lucia,
“I’ve been interested in the stories that suggest anti-Putin Russians have joined the fray.”
Yes, me too!
They have withdrawn, but it was both a propaganda and strategic victory. Strategic, in that Russia was forced to commit a large counterforce to repel them. I also suspect they will beef up border defense for the foreseeable future. They can ill afford to be taking troops away from the battle.
It was a propaganda disaster both inside and outside Russia. Even Prighozen piled on: “Putin at risk of ‘revolution’ after Belgorod raid, Wagner chief claims…. The leader of the Russian mercenary group Wagner has claimed that Vladimir Putin could face a revolution similar to those of 1917 and lose the war in Ukraine unless the elite got serious about fighting the war.”
Also, Russia MOD issued photos of destroyed vehicles and dead bodies, supposedly of the invaders. My OSINT sources analyzed the photos and decided they are fake. The invaders claim they all made it back safely. Stay tuned, there is more to come.
Very interesting, and important, findings, Tom. The media made a big point of explaining what CRT is and that it’s everyone else that’s wrong. How totally unsurprising the public have been widely mislead and dangerously misinformed on this issue. I wondered how “liberals” could throw away these strongly held and widely disseminated beliefs so easily. Just tribally inspired ignorance. Leaders within these movements know liberals reflexively disregard information they tag with certain thought terminating cliches such as “right wing”, and they’re too smart and smug to believe they might be being used.
Lucia,
Like I was saying… this isn’t over. Another distraction for the Russians.
“White Rex” from “Russian Volunteer Corps” and “Caesar” from “Freedom for Russia Legion” gave an interview to more than 100 media representatives from Ukraine and the West in an undisclosed area near the border.”
“They stated that their organizations will continue liberating Russia from Putin and his people – as it is not enough to just remove Putin in any way, the system needs to change. In order to achieve their goal, they intend to lead offensive operations to Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk and Moscow.”
Check out the photo op….. https://twitter.com/rklier21/status/1661426376384151569?s=61&t=q3_InP1nXWdPIXqj8656mQ
Lucia:
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You are leaving out names but I’ll take the shot that you are referring to Trump’s family and friends. I don’t have a huge issue with family and friends per se. John Adams’ son John Quincy was much more popular of a president than his father. Rockefeller Jr. was one of the greatest philanthropists of all time. Jared Kushner was no Billy Carter or Jim Biden or Hunter Biden. He successfully headed the USMCA trade deal and the Abraham accords. One of those would have been enough to give him a thumbs up. The media’s biggest criticism of him is that he did not make speeches or off the cuff remarks much. He instead wrote a book praising the Trump administrations accomplishments.
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Let me allow former Deputy National Security Advisor K.T. McFarland outline it for us as she did Sunday with Maria Bartiromo.
Ed Forbes (Comment #221588): “proclaimed the Ruble is Ruble”.
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Hard to argue with that. 🙂
The Wilson Center is a think tank. It was Biden who declared that the ruble is rubble. And who is most directly responsible for our current fiscal pickle, albeit with a lot of help from his three predecessors. the Fed, and pretty much every Congress since Gingrich resigned.
Today from Matt Taibbi:
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Matt is a former writer for liberal Rolling Stone and supported Obama’s election in 2008 and 2012. I’m uncertain as to whom he supported in 2016. He did write an article justifying young people favoring Bernie Sanders over Hillary and thus criticized his own magazine for endorsing her. I can’t imagine he would have been allowed to work there if he ever said anything good about Trump. But now I would not be surprised to see him openly boosting the GOP candidates, including Trump if he is the nominee. Being targeted as an enemy of the state for reporting the truth can change a person’s priors I suppose.
Ron
I left out names because I intended to discuss something in general. I am pointing out nepotism and cronyisms are natural consequences of egotistical leaders. It’s not just Trump. But if Trump’s appointments jumped to your mind: Yes. He was guilty of nepotism. That some nepotistic appointments worked out is true; others are just pure egotism with the benefit accruing to the familyh.
I read your long quote. I still don’t know what danger you are alluding to. I invite you to state it clearly in one or two sentences rather than making me guess.
Ron
We know how Matt is. Please try to state a point — any point–directly rather than trying to have us infer one from these very long quotes.
I agree. From Matt Walsh: “Conservatives are nice people who like to get along with others. That has been used against them for a long time. That’s why they needed those of us who are incorrigible assholes to come along and do what they didn’t have the stomach for. They complained about our methods but now I think they are starting to understand.”
https://twitter.com/mattwalshblog/status/1661384190649147392?s=61&t=q3_InP1nXWdPIXqj8656mQ
Ron,
I find myself continuing to wonder who is the red haired candidate?
Being outside the USA I only get a few news bites about US politics. So to my US friends what do you think of Nikki Haley and Tim Scott? Do they have any chance of being the Republican candidate? They appear, to this naive outsider to be centrentrist Republicans, is this a fair assessment?
Andrew,
I would be surprised if either were nominated as president. O sense that even though both are plausible people, the name recognition is just not there. Someone has to be the VP pick and is often a person who ran for president.
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Still, you never really know.
Lucia, I meant to say orange. Does that help?
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Andrew, there is a question as to what is centrism anymore. Centrists are not welcome in either party at the moment. There are still a very few but they would have little shot at the presidency. There are party rebels like Kristen Sinema who left the Dem party and is now a target to be knocked out of the senate. There is Liz Cheyney who went against Trump and lost her House seat along with a slew of others that did the same.
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Tim Scott’s message is identical to other GOP, including Trump, except Scott tries to stay on a positive tone. That will be hard to do as the left will call him all sorts of names. Haley could be more centrist than Scott but will suffer the same. The lowest tolerance is for the perceived sell outs of the left. Joe Biden put it crudely during his run, “If you’re not for me then you ain’t black,” talking to a black radio host.
Here is Tim Scott’s GOP response to Biden’s State of the Union speech 2 years ago. It was one of the best I have heard.
Lucia, you ask what is the danger and also why bring up Matt Taibbi. My point is easy to see. Lifelong staked liberals, even career staked ones, are defecting. The only common denominator I see is they are calling out what they see is their party running off course and his industry toward totalitarian government alliance, which one definition of fascism.
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Now I know you are going to point out that GOP politicians and conservative writers like Jonah Goldberg have been sounding the alarm that Trump is the totalitarian. I honestly don’t see that. That is likely because I took a lot closer look at the election shenanigans than most.
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I also agree with Tucker Carlson that there is compelling evidence that the FBI laid a trap for the protestors. That would explain a lot of circumstances I don’t have time to catalog here now. Here is the documentary that made Chris Wallace quit Fox News in protest and what some believe contributed to Tucker’s firing. The gist is that Capitol was set up as a honey pot.
Ron,
The orange reference I get.
At this point, anyone other than Trump or DeSantis is a long shot. Scott and Haley may be the most plausible of the long shots. But who knows? Maybe DeSantis will crash and burn (I sure hope not). Trump will be 77 in a few weeks and all the bogus lawfare might eventually convince most Republicans that it is just too much. Long shot need not be no shot.
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Also, Scott and/or Haley might be trying to position themselves for VP or for 2028.
Ron,
No. It’s not easy to see a “point” when you start with “Today from Matt Taibbi:” and then post long quote. If you want people to see some point in there, you need to be proactive and say it. Now that you reveal your point, I can honestly say I would never, ever, ever have inferred that point (which seems to be that life-long liberals may be becoming conservative.)
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I have no idea why I would point this out. I don’t read Jonah Goldberg. As far as I can recall, I’ve never quoted him.
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What you should have predicted I would say is: I think you are debating with some phantom inside your head since your ramblings often don’t seem to connect to what other people are writing. But thanks for answering the question this time (before going off on what might be a ramble?)
Seeing videos and pics of Russian regular army troops, armor, and helicopters on patrol near Belgorod protecting the border from further incursions. Also, a trainload of armor leaving the battle zone presumably heading that way. The border raids successfully weakened the Russian forces facing the Ukrainians.
[Just as I predicted]
Another country, South Korea, joins the fray and starts supplying armaments to Ukraine (indirectly)
“South Korea will give the US half a million 155-mm shells to replace those that the Americans supply to Ukraine from their own warehouses. The law prohibits South Korea from exporting weapons to countries at war, but such a three-way scheme does not fall under the law, and will allow the United States to supply shells to Ukraine much more freely.”
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1646048857082429440?s=61&t=q3_InP1nXWdPIXqj8656mQ
Ron, David,
It looks like DeSantis is your man in this case:
Whereas Trump:
https://redstate.com/bonchie/2023/05/25/desantis-reveals-exactly-what-hell-do-to-christopher-wray-if-elected-n751279
Mark, Chris Christy recommended Chris Wray. That I think broke the bond of Trump and Christy, whom currently thinks he can run for president as an anti-Trump.
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Here is a quote from a 2021 article on the subject.
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So Trump was being defensive, not admitting a bad appointment. I think all Trump acceptors know about the bad appointments. The question in our minds is was Chris Wray the bad one or Chris Christie or is their a larger monster that is harder to see that they all can’t verbalize more than call it the “deep state.”
Lucia, I am trying to thread the needle between keeping my comments brief and giving enough background for people not following politics to understand the history and backstories. It helps if you just proactively make comments. Like: “Tell me more about Jonah Goldberg and others who form the center right anti-Trump movement.” Or: “Who is Jonah Goldberg? Is he a never Trumper?” Rather than: “I have no idea why I would point this out. I don’t read Jonah Goldberg. As far as I can recall, I’ve never quoted him.”
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So I am thinking that you (as an independent) have not been following the never-Trump conservative POV but are just familiar with the MSM and Chicago Tribune reporting of Trump. I think there may be others here that are conservatives rather than independents that know more about the National Review and Mitch McConnell view of Trump. I think there is overlap between the two POVs but it is interesting that the conservatives are at odds with an avenue to populism that would allow the GOP to win the popular vote in the presidential election rather than squeaking out an electoral win if the stars are right (and assuming the USIC does not meddle again).
I’d vote for Joe Manchin over Trump. Sorry.
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He’s from my home state and I have been watching him since he was Governor. He’s one of the few Democrats who voted for Kavanaugh and hilariously had a re-election campaign ad shooting a hole through a climate bill. He’s managed to straddle the aisle for quite a while. Not obvious he will survive another election in WV though.
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My real preference is DeSantis, but that is looking less and less likely. Not.going.to.vote.for.Trump. You all can write another million words and it isn’t going to help, in fact it is counter productive. There is no need to explain something I personally watched happened and was saturated to the extreme in the news cycle.
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I don’t see Trump as a totalitarian or authoritarian. That is just legacy media hyperbole. Physician, heal thyself.
Ron
No one would call your comments brief.
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I have no interest in you telling me more about Jonah Goldberg nor others who form what you consider the “center right anti-Trump movement”.
Obviously, I’m not going to ask you this. I know who he is. I don’t seek out his views particularly. I do read a lot of views.
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I think my response was tailored to inform you that you were utterly incorrect when you wrote “I know you are going to point out that GOP politicians and conservative writers like Jonah Goldberg”.
I was obviously not going to point out anything like that because
(a) I almost never read Jonah Goldberg.
(b) I don’t consider him an important thinker. He doesn’t contribute to my ideas.
(c) I don’t argue by telling what people other than me have written somewhere on the intertubes. And so on.
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You may wish I wanted to be your padawan who asked you questions of your choosing. That doesn’t mean it would “help” the conversation.
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I consider my response much more helpful to conversation than the questions you would prefer I ask. Among other things, either I already know the answers to those or I don’t have any particular interest in the answers. (I don’t, for example, care which people you have dubbed “Never Trumpers”, why you’ve given them this moniker nor why you think said moniker is helpful to any conversation. Asking the question you want to put in my mouth risks sending the conversation into a rabbit hole of useless pointless drivel.)
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I think I quite clearly told you I don’t read Jonah Goldberg. You seem to now be inferring all sorts of unrelated things from this tid-bit.
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Other than telling you I don’t seek out and read Goldberg, I have no idea what you consider the ” never-Trump conservative POV”. I have read some people at the National Review from time to time.
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Perhaps you need to stop jumping to broad conclusions based on tid-bits.
Tom Scharf (Comment #221614): “My real preference is DeSantis, but that is looking less and less likely.”
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I don’t see why, other than the fact that most media keep telling us that because they are all in for Trump getting the nomination. It is not at all clear that DeSantis’s favorable/unfavorable has moved much:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/ron_desantis_favorableunfavorable-7966.html
The same is true for DeSantis vs. Biden polls:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general_election_desantis_vs_biden-7967.html#polls
Yes, the horse race polls show a shift, mostly due to the phony Bragg indictment. That does not mean what most people claim since that claim is too silly to be true.
———
Tom Scharf: “I don’t see Trump as a totalitarian or authoritarian. That is just legacy media hyperbole.”
I agree.
Again, I am not glued to Trump. I think Vivek Ramaswamy or Tim Scott could take the Trump populist message and broaden the party further. Scott should probably keep is faith more to himself but would be harder for independents to be threatened by it that coming out of Pence’s mouth. I think DeSantis could carry the Trump torch but he is making the wrong choice if he intentionally is trying to get to the right of Trump. And if he truly has convictions that are to the right of Trump that does not bode well for gaining independents either. He has time to correct.
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Back to the never-Trump conservatives, part the explanation I see is that they were mostly the ones dissing Trump from 2015 and never let up. At least that is the story for Jonah Goldberg, Steve Hayes, Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan. Conservatives biggest problem is that they skeptical of change. Liberals biggest problem is that they don’t know where to stop.
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Here is a video of Goldberg on CNN last week discussing the likely political outcome of Trump’s prosecutions, particularly for taking the presidential records with him to Mar-a-lago. Goldbergh trashes Trump but defends the GOP supporters of Trump as being “closet normals” but that they just have to wait for the voters (deplorables). Jake Tapper is forced to take the pro-Trump side to point out the Hillary was not so good with classified documents. Kirsten Powers then says that is the reason Trump should have known better. (Nobody brings up that the president has supreme declassification authority as chief executive or that there is a thing called the Presidential Records Act or the history of presidents taking their documents with them).
Ron Graf
Sure. Not glued. Whatever that metaphor means.
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You only want to bring him up over and over and tell us how great he is. When challenged to say something bad about him, you gave it your all suggesting he doesn’t use speech writers enough, and withing a few posts told us that… really… even that isn’t his problem. The one statement you provided as a mistake you suggested was actually a misinterpretation by the press.
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I haven’t characterized your behavior as being “glued” (whatever glued is supposed to mean.)
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Back to the subject you brought up. I guess “I don’t, for example, care ….” as encouragement to reveal more about your views on people who you have labeled thusly.
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And you’ve certainly proven I don’t need to ask you the questions you want me to ask! You’ll volunteer the answers even after I tell you I’m not interested in them. A whole link to Goldberg!!
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Honestly, no one other than you is discussing never-Trumpers (whoever they might be.) Once again, you seem to be arguing with people who are not here.
Lucia,
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I don’t know why you would think it is illogical for one who feels that the dissing and denunciation or Trump is overblown to be interested as to why others do not feel that is the case. In fact I appreciate Tom volunteering that he feels the left’s obsession with calling Trump an authoritarian is unfounded (or a projection of their own tendency).
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Tom, Joe Manchin is an interesting guy. I remember the ad you are talking about where he shoots the rifle. Ironically, the pro-second amendment, pro-coal and pro-union Democrat is precisely the Trump new Republican. No?
Ron
I didn’t say your feelings are illogical. I’m saying you are (1) Bringing up the subject of “never Trumpers” (who post elsewhere), (2) Telling us your choice of arguments of “never Trumpers” (who post elsewhere) and (3) Then providing your counter arguments to the arguments you posted.
(Sometimes you skip 1 and 2 and go straight to 3. Sometimes you ‘predict’ that I am– for some reason– going to advance the argument in (2), making this falsely seem to be a counter argument to something I wrote. )
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It’s a rather one sided conversation. Maybe having that one sided conversation is logical; maybe it’s illogical. Either way: it’s one sided.
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No.
Just like the interesting place Joe Manchin is in. It seems like there is an epidemic of weird politics since Trump came on the scene. RFK Jr., Tulsi Gabbord, Glenn Greenwald coming more and more to Fox and Newsmax mixed with Jonah Goldberg, the author of Liberal Fascism, going to CNN make for interesting analysis to me.
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Did I use a rhetorical “no?” in my last comment? Yes I did. Sorry about that.
From NYPost:
“Target loses $9B in week following boycott calls over LGBTQ-friendly kids clothing … As of early trading on Thursday, however, shares of the company were trading off 1% at $141.76 — capping a weeklong tumble that has shrunk the “cheap chic” discount retailer’s value to $65.3 billion. …..That amounts to a 12% drop that has shaved a whopping $9 billion off the company’s market capitalization.”
This ‘cancel culture’ game sure is fun. Make em pay!
https://nypost.com/2023/05/25/target-loses-8b-in-week-since-boycott-calls-over-pride-collection/?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=nypost&utm_source=twitter
This is big[no, huge]:
I spent years fighting the Federal jurisdiction [Army Corps and EPA] over isolated wetlands. Turns out I was right.
“The court was unanimous in finding that the land owned by the Idaho family was not subject to the Clean Water Act, but split 5-4 on the court’s new test, which held that only wetlands that have a continuous surface connection to a body of water are covered by the law.”
He wrote the “courts new test will leave some long-regulated adjacent wetlands no longer covered by the Clean Water Act, with significant repercussions for water quality and flood control throughout the United States.”
https://www.npr.org/2023/05/25/1178150234/supreme-court-epa-clean-water-act
While I understand Glenn Greenwald and other lifelong Democrats who are moving to ally with GOP due to their concern for USIC corruption, I find the only answer for lifelong staunch conservative’s anti-Trump stance is that they do not see the USIC-deep state problem. If they don’t see the deep state then they don’t see the Russia probe as the largest dirty tricks operation of all time and don’t see the current prosecutions as being manufactured. They see Trump as the problem and if Trump goes away the problem will go away.
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It makes sense for Mitch McConnell, a congressional leader, not to believe there has been a transformation of the USIC while under the oversight of congress. But I suppose the objection of Jonah Goldberg, which goes back to Trump coming down the escalator in 2015, stems from the feeling that Trump is an intruder. I think this feeling of intrusion is in part what activated the defenses of the deep state and but is precisely the primary appeal of Trump to the commoner. They voter that was fed up with government wanted an outside intervention, a fighter, someone who put manners aside and spoke their mind.
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To the extent that a 2024 candidate can embody the Trump insurgency against the establishment, while being effective in their messaging, the more chance they will win the GOP primary. Unfortunately for the never Trump voter, the candidates will not likely attack Trump directly for fear of alienating the voters they want to court. If none of them can get clear traction over the others then Trump will win the nomination.
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Who would I most like to see by the new MAGA bearer? My order would be Ramaswamy, then DeSantis then Scott. I am neutral on Haley and Youngkin (if he gets in) and negative on Christy and Pence. My top three are subject to change.
Ron,
Perhaps all this demonstrates is that you are poor at finding answers, because this has nothing to do with my opposition to Trump. It’s sad really, that after all of these comments and all this discussion you still have no idea where anyone else is coming from. Sad, but not really surprising.
WOTUS….”Waters of the United States”
The issue: The Clean Water Act does not define “waters of the United States”; instead, it provides authority for EPA and the U.S. Department of the Army to define “waters of the United States” in regulations.
And over the decades the EPA and Army Corps have used this nebulous authority to claim jurisdiction over nearly every isolated frog pond and damp pasture in the US. Vegetation that likes damp soil, migrating waterfowl habitat, soil types, and underground seepage of groundwater were all used to justify designating private land as WOTUS. HAH! In your dreams!
The court sided 9-0 with the land owner in this case but went further and defined the WOTUS jurisdiction in a 5-4 decision:
SCOTUS says: “Writing for the court’s conservative majority, Justice Samuel Alito said the Clean Water Act applies only to wetlands with a “continuous surface connection” to the navigable waters like streams, lakes, oceans and rivers that are directly covered by the law….. Wetlands must be virtually indistinguishable from the navigable waters for federal jurisdiction to apply, he wrote.”
Kavanaugh sided with the minority “The Court’s new and overly narrow test may leave long-regulated and long-accepted-to-be-regulable wetlands suddenly beyond the scope of the agencies’ regulatory authority, with negative consequences for waters of the United States,”
The recent EPA decision is an example of why the Supreme Court matters. They have done more to reel in regulatory power than any administration in decades. The left wants to hand a lot of power to unaccountable bureaucrats (as long as those people see things the right way).
“Environmental groups decried the decision. “Almost 90 million acres of formerly protected wetlands now face an existential threat from polluters and developers,” said Sam Sankar, vice president of Programs at Earthjustice.”
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Wow, Shocking that an environmental group would respond with alarmist catastrophic rhetoric. Their thesaurus only has about 10 usable words now.
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As for Kavanaugh here, Congress can give those powers back to the EPA if they wish. Although that seems unlikely given the political climate.
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Some other big case decisions coming up soon.
Sometimes sophomoric publicity stunts actually work.
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Today’s example is the busing of migrants from the southern border to blue cities. As mentioned before the stern lectures on immigration morality have ended, and today the NYT’s(!) runs an opinion article:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/25/opinion/new-york-city-right-to-shelter.html
“New York City has miraculously been meeting the right-to-shelter standard for 40 years. Today there are over 80,000 people living in New York City shelters, costing the city over $2 billion a year. Over 40,000 of those people living in the city’s care are asylum seekers who have no prior connection to New York City.
Those asylum seekers are now straining the right-to-shelter principle to a breaking point — and even more, they are exposing the ridiculousness of how the right to shelter has been expanded over the years. Many people are now scratching their heads over why this standard exists at all, let alone in only one place in the country. Mayor Eric Adams is now asking the courts for relief from its most onerous provisions.”
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Aaaaaggghh, these monsters at the NYT want to toss undocumented persons of whatever gender they choose onto the streets to die! At the very least a few editors need to be fired for allowing this article to be shown to unsuspecting readers .
mark
I was away from home. I was about to write this answer to Ron:
“I suspect you find only one answer because your field of view is extremely narrow.”.
Then I saw yours.
Lucia,
Yeah.
An aside, I’m loving that the Donald, widely heralded as this amazing dominant alpha male, was apparently Chris Christie’s bitch when it came to Wray. I mean, it seems Ron would have us believe that Trump isn’t to blame for Wray but Chris Christie is. Because Trump dared not defy the head of his transition team I guess. And Christie not even a cabinet member.
Pathetic. In my view, the buck stops with the President. If the President listens to bad advice, that demonstrates the President’s poor judgement, it doesn’t excuse him. But whatever.
Another naïve foreigner question about USA politics.
During a presidential primary race can 2 struggling candidates merge their campaign, one being declared the hopeful presidential candidate and other the hopeful vice-presidential candidate, and hence merge their delegate pools? I assume this can happen at the national conference but can it happen part-way through the primary race? If it can has it ever happened and has it ever been successful?
BTW an example this time might be Nikki Hayley and Tim Scott and last time in the democratic race I thought maybe Peter Buttigeig and Tulsi Gabbard (sp?).
Andrew,
During a primary, no one declares themselves as a hopeful VP candidate. For the most part, the person who gets picked as the Presidential candidate picks their VP. However, not infrequently, they pick someone who also ran for President picking someone who brings in votes. (They can pick someone who didn’t run also.)
Andrew Kennett (Comment #221631),
I don’t think that a candidate can assign his delegate’s to a different candidate. If a candidate drops out, he can endorse someone else and hope his delegates follow his lead, but they are not required to.
Mike M, you are exactly right. When Amy Klobuchar and the others dropped out of the 2020 race and pledged support to Biden their delegates were presumed but not obligated to do the same.
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Also, if somebody dies or drops out after they won the primary the delegates can all hold their own election and put up any candidate they choose.
https://www.vox.com/2016/9/12/12887632/if-presidential-nominee-drops-out
Mark, I just read you linked article. I think the full Trump quote gives a slightly different picture of what he was saying. It’s worthwhile to hear someone’s entire paragraph sometimes even if they are wordy.
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I don’t see this as being “Chris Christy’s bitch.” I think Trump was still not fully aware of the depth of the plot against him or the depth of transformation Obama had accomplished. I think Christy thought he knew Wray from working with him in the DOJ. But that was prior to the Obama changes in the FBI and DOJ and IRS, etc.
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I doubt even if Mike Flynn had still been there that he would have known about the corruption level or who was part of it. Clearly, it took him almost a year getting the shaft himself from an establishment law firm (advising him to plead guilty and cooperate) before he accepted Sidney Powell’s help to uncover the evidence he had been framed up.
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Hindsight is 20-20. The question I think should be asked is which candidates think the corruption was in response to just Trump being unpalatable and that they would not get the same treatment thus no systemic problem to be rooted out. I think Pence, Hutchinson and Haley are likely in that camp. Ramaswamy says he is going to fire the entire FBI, so we know where he stands. DeSantis? He knows what is going on. Scott? he might not be as aggressive but he is such a breath of fresh air that I think deep stater would have to be under particular duress to plot dirty tricks against him. But we have been underestimating that force it seems. There is no question that Trump will be aggressive and that they will fight like hell right back. As K.C. McFarland said, “They knew they were doing stuff wrong. They knew they were going to be liable for prosecution.”
Trump was not fully aware, and apparently Trump is still not fully aware, since he says ‘it might not have been the right move, time will tell’. This fantasy you and David are participating in about Trump cleaning up the ‘deep state’ is just that, a fantasy.
“Some other big case decisions coming up soon.”
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Yes, 5 or 6 on politically contentious issues, including racial bias in college admissions, whether or not states have standing to challenge the Biden administration’s refusal to enforce immigration laws, whether someone can be compelled to provide ‘creative services’ for a gay wedding, and more.
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I predict the outrage volume in the MSM will be pegged at 10 for a long time after these decisions are announced.
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I am not so naive as to believe Harvard and other selective colleges will actually stop discriminating in admissions by race (they will continue just as at present) but anything that makes the task more difficult is a plus. Only Congress can stop them by withholding all Federal funds from colleges that practice racially motivated admissions, but Congress is not going to do that.
Ron Graf (Comment #221635),
Thanks for the full Trump quote. At the time, he had little choice but to compromise on that appointment. His choice ended up being a bad one. Nobody seems to have realized it at the time.
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I think that Trump’s failure to clean out the Deep State was down to three things.
(1) He did not at first realize just how pervasive the rot is. Many Republicans still won’t recognize that.
(2) Unlike an incoming Establishment president, Trump did not have a huge roster of nominally qualified loyalists to draw on in making appointments. Even many of the people he thought he could count on (Sessions, that general he put in at Defense, etc) turned out to be not on his side.
(3) Combating the Deep State requires enormous resolve, careful planning, and more than a little sneakiness and subterfuge. Trump only has one of those qualities.
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I think that if Trump were returned to office, he would do better on his second try. But possibly not a lot better.
Mike,
You too huh. All of this ‘at first.. at the time..’. Trump doesn’t agree with you guys TODAY that Wray is a problem.
How you guys can read this and still cling to your delusion that Trump gives a crap about the Deep State is mind boggling.
Angels fear to tread….wandering into the Trump free-for-all. I am a Never Trumper. I have been a Never Trumper since he descended the Golden Escalator. I was a Never Trumper before the phrase ‘Never Trumper’ was coined.
But, I have been ecstatic with the SCOTUS decisions since he was president. In fact, he improved the entire Federal bench.
Some sensible polling that shows how beatable Trump might be in the Republican primaries:
https://wirepoints.org/new-m3-poll-shows-trump-and-desantis-in-the-lead-in-early-primary-states-m3/
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Instead of just asking about first choice they asked Republican voters to rank their choices. Looking just at first choice, results were like other polls with a commanding lead for Trump. But when first and second choices are combined, DeSantis is in the lead. Lots of Trump voters are willing to shift if a better candidate is available.
Tom
The full quote shows Trump trying to distance himself from responsibility for his appointment. I think that’s what Mark’s shorter quote also showed.
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Trumps habit is to blame others when he is the party most responsible for the problem. Fuller quotes just show this more strongly.
Lucia, I read Trump’s quote the same way. He is definitely defensive, as is his nature (and most people’s) about poor decisions. I don’t read it as he doesn’t really know if Wray was a bad choice or “time will tell.” One has to hear Trump enough to understand what to take literally and what is defensiveness or hyperbole. Even if Trump is crazy and is the only one in his camp that doesn’t see the problem then it will accept the advice of the consensus of the advisors, as he did with Christy on Wray. This is all common sense but I know that goes out the window with feelings about Trump. They have a phrase for that phenomenon but I fear using it again.
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Mike M, I agree with your comment except that Sessions I think was just over his head. They had people that were pretending to listen to him like people pretend to listen to senile Grandpa but Rosenstein and whoever was in charge of the deep state was calling the shots at DOJ and FBI.
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Edit: I bet K.T. McFarland would not mind having Wray’s job.
Ron Graf,
Whether or not he is defensive, it is a fact that he distances himself from responsibility of his own decisions. The quote you posted gives an example of him doing it, and shows the manner in which he does it.
Both the defensiveness, and hyperbole are flaws in and of themselves. And the tendency to not take responsibility for his own decisions — for whatever reasons is a flaw.
What I wrote is common sense. But those who absolutely do not want to admit Trump’s flaws don’t seem to grasp it.
Perhaps not. But I bet a lot of viable qualified candidates will not want the job if Trump is the boss. Trump throws too many people under the bus — or at a minimum does not stand behind them.
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The Trump statement of “non-endoresment” of Wray is an example of the horrible way Trump treats people he appointed. The “I may have made a mistake” bit? Not a good way to treat your appointees. Either admit you did make a mistake and ask for their resignation or say you still back the person. Or shut the F*** up and say “no comment”.
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This sort of behavior is among the things that makes Trump a very poor choice as president.
Ron,
I should add that the fact that one has to figure out whether Trump means something literally is also a flaw that makes him unfit for office.
That Wray was not the person needed to clean up the FBI was readily observed by his demeanor when talking about the FBI. He was all in on marketing the “good image” of the FBI. I doubt the he is into getting his hands dirty or knowing any negatives about the FBI. That he would probably have to react to obvious publicized problems of the FBI has been noted, but I do not know exactly what changes were made.
Wray’s BSing and exaggerations about the FBI are remindful of a D. Trump with more savoir faire.
Ken:
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Ken, I think this again is 20-20 hindsight. We forget that nobody saw Wray’s demeanor about the FBI, or the task at hand, until he was appointed. The depth of corruption of the FBI only came out with the Horowitz report and then only for those who read it themselves, which included very few in the MSM. They latched onto the executive summary part where Horowitz did the CYA mention that he did not find intentional malfeasance, (just incidental instances at every possible step). This was similar to Comey, BTW, detailing Clinton’s email and documents handling as absurdly careless and then saying, “No prosecutor would file charges,” (except an honest one.)
.
Lucia, Trump’s flaws are very transparent to everyone unlike the flaws that motivate one sell out the country to China or scheme to set up an innocent political opponent and his ally’s with fake charges and planted fake leaks. Compared to the flaws many people are used to the seeing Trump’s are quaint or comical. The ones that call Trump a dangerous authoritarian or constitution shedder are the more dangerous ones by record of actions. Wray is a good example of a perfect at the talk but obviously absent on the walk, the opposite of Trump. But if you want perfection in all aspects I’m afraid I don’t remember when we had that choice. DeSantis has flaws. I don’t mind that he eats pudding with his fingers but that is already a news item. One has to weigh what’s important and be skeptical of media pearl clutching. Trumps level of support is likely an exact reflection of the lack of respect for the opinions of the legacy media.
Add this to the intrigue of Epstein’s attempted blackmail of Bill Gates that was in the news last week, the Russian woman involved was connected to the Chapman Russian spy ring.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/bill-gates-alleged-russian-lover-194934547.html
Ron,
Trump’s own words, once again:
The guy is a constitution shredder.
Mark, when you saw that reported in blaring headlines in all the news outlets, including the National Review, one had to read to the end of the story to find that Trump was reacting the revelations of Matt Taibbi, on his own FBI, DOJ and all the rest of the agencies conspiring with big tech to preemptively quash the news that voters were going to have a choice of a president that fired a lot of people often with tweets, and a president that’s son was taking influence peddling money, not just from an energy company in Ukraine, but almost every US adversary save Iran and NK. And the FBI was doing leading this effort at the same time to cover it up for a year prior, while having the incriminating evidence in their possession that they knew the story was based on and thus was true. And, Trump suffered his impeachment at the hands of people saying the Biden family corruption was all made up and an attempt by Trump at a dirty trick through use of a foreign government quid pro quo.
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This apparently was shielded effectively from you and others here or I really don’t understand what you define as unacceptable government actions.
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It makes sense to me that you would see this Trump tweet as a confession that he is a Constitution shredder because the National Review had already falsely set that idea to its readers with the Eastman memo article that they claimed was proof that Trump wanted Pence to single-handedly overturn the election. That may be true but Pence never claimed that to present, including in his book. Eastman denies it. But I keep my mind open about it and if there is proof that Trump wanted Pence to unilaterally declare him the winner then I will join you in denouncing Trump along with Clinton, Biden, Comey, Wray, Barr, Rosenstein, Yates, McCabe, Obama, the NYT, WaPo, Harry Reid, Brennan, Clapper, the silent CIA and FBI and DoJ and DOS that all went along to get along.
Endless excuses for the plain statements from the man. He openly and plainly tweets about overturning the election, but no. According to you he’s not talking about overturning the election. He openly and plainly tweets about disregarding the Constitution so he can resume office or get some sort of absurd ‘do-over’ vote, but no. According to you that’s not what he meant.
You can and probably will go on to your dying day believing that anybody besides you gives two shits whether Trump wanted Pence to declare him the winner or overturn the election in some other way. Nobody does, it doesn’t make any difference. You can go on dreaming that because some shyster had a legal theory, that it would have somehow been constitutional for Pence and Trump to overturn the election. It wouldn’t have been. EVEN IF it were legal by some absurd technicality, the damage such overturning would do this country permanently is every bit as bad as constitution shredding.
You can go on living in your fantasy, but I’m not going along with you. I’m not pretending you are anything but deluded, regardless of how often you air your delusions here.
Ron Graf (Comment #221455)
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If the FBI is covering up Seth Rich’s murder at the hands of Dem or USIC or both that is relevant and fits a pattern that needs to be recognized and not dismissed as business as usual or just suspended from thoughts like other unpleasant subjects. Next to the gross misdeeds that we are finding as commonplace the next most dangerous thing is for us to accept them as normal.
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But if we were accepting corruption and election meddling as normal there would not be a logic being the pearl clutching reaction for Trump or Lake to be questioning the integrity of their elections results. It is seems like something that is only explained by an effect of propaganda.
Here is the article: https://nationalfile.com/fbi-asks-judge-to-delay-seth-rich-laptop-release-for-66-years/
Mark:
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So Mark do you think there was evidence of election meddling by the deep state or not? Because I think that is the heart of the predicate for Trump’s claim for redress. He is not clearly stating what that redress should be now, except obviously his election in 2024. Did anyone one ask him to clarify if he was asking for a court to appoint him president now? I suppose nobody thought that was even a possibility but you if that is what you are implying. If you think he was justifying his action to object to the 2020 election then you know the ECA but we are all hazy on what would have happened if there were no riot. I am still skeptical that the riot was sedition. How about you? Was it sedition for the Oath Keepers to enter the Capitol? What about the guy with horns or the grandmas?
Ron
Transparent flaws are still flaws.
No. Trumps flaws are very real flaws.
I’ve never asked for perfection in all aspects. Never. Ever.
Mark
Yep. This flaw isn’t merely quaint. And it’s not on the level of eating pudding with your fingers (which honestly, if down at home rather than at a formal dinner or in a restaurant is not even a flaw.)
Ron
Relevant to what? That would not turn Trump into an acceptable candidate. You bring up things you have gripes about. Sure. Find. They don’t make Trump a worthy of being re-elected.
So Ron, do you think if said evidence does exist that would make it ok for Trump to set aside “all rules, regulations, and articles, even those found in the Constitution”. ‘Cuz no, it would not. It doesn’t matter if election meddling is the heart of the predicate for Trump’s saying it would allow for termination of all rules, regulations and articles, even those in the constitution.
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Saying something makes it ok to over turn the constitution is not a mere ‘claim for redress’.
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Suppose the answer was no. Would that answer make Trump’s statements acceptable? Nope. And the answer was yes, would that answer make Trump’s statements acceptable? Nope.
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I don’t know what point you think you are making asking rhetorical yes/no questions that regardless of the answer still leave Trump making inexcusable statements.
A microcosm of current day America is playing out on these pages.
Barring a miracle on of the 3 next cases against him will knock Trump out, justified or not is immaterial.
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Perhaps we could let things go on this front for a week and consider some of the other issues.
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Most pertinent is the debt crisis. I see the Dow went up suggesting it will be settled but does this hide an underlying structural debt problem which both sides need to address?
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Further, though people here do not discuss it is how can we watch the destruction of fossil fuel use which got us to where we are and is what has to be to keep us here without being concerned.
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I take a very phlegmatic view that what will be will be and that things have to go to far one way to bring about the push. For change. The other way.
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Yet in a world where more and more young people want the lifestyle of TV without the onus of years or a lifetime of hard work critical thought is almost non existent without having to go through a lot of pain..
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Oh well, so be it.
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Biden down to minus 13.3 on polls average and in free fall, will plummet below JC soon (Jimmy Carter). At that level almost any Republican should be able to beat him as when you lose 2/3 of the people it is the end.
Man, they are good at this….
“The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valerii Zaluzhny: “The time has come to take back what is ours,” he said this morning”
Another powerful video with English subtitles, Link:
https://twitter.com/DenesTorteli/status/1662318450172108801?s=20
angech,
There is not a lot to talk about WRT fossil fuels. The climate crazies are currently in charge of administration in Washington, so crazy energy policies will remain in place until those crazies are voted out of office. That could happen in 2024, though I think the chance is well north of 50% that Trump will pull defeat from the jaws of victory, one way or another. The ‘carbon neutral by 2050’ policy based on wind and solar is a) ridiculous and b) never going to happen. If there is actually any ‘progress’ toward carbon neutrality, it will be so costly that voters will (finally) get rid of the crazies some time after 2024. Sensible policy, like rapid investment in nuclear power plants, seems only possible after the climate crazies are gone.
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The debt crisis is just a manifestation of the deep political divide we currently have in the USA. As it always has, the left supports taking wealth for redistribution, and they don’t care a bit about economic damage caused by inflation. The logic is: Spend far more than collected taxes, give the money to those who are ‘more deserving’, accumulating massive public debt, which can then only be financed by increasing taxes on ‘the rich’, who are, by definition, less deserving people. Those more deserving people are the ones who pass on ‘years, or a lifetime, of hard work’.
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The hysteria on the left is automatic (and loud!) when any policy (like a compromise on the debt ceiling) puts that logic at risk. But compromise is inevitable when both sides of the political divide have some political power.
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I think it is helpful to keep in mind that the Biden administration STILL hopes to forgive student loan debt, adding another $400 billion to the public debt. This in the face of already record Federal deficits; there could not exist a more economically irrational policy. The political divide could not be more clear.
Another Putin blunder…. He intended to control Europe’s response to his invasion of Ukraine by throttling back on their gas valve. Europe said “Nyet!! and opposed the invasion. Europe got through the Winter with no emergencies and now gas prices are at a two year low. Up yours Vlad!
I read early on [particularly on these pages] that one of the main reasons Putin invaded was to halt the advance of NATO. Russia’s invasion has done the reverse of what it wanted. But, they are still signing that tune, from TASS yesterday….
Russian Foreign Ministry, represented by Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin: “Ukraine has to give up on joining NATO, EU to achieve peace”
https://tass.com/politics/1623811
In your dreams. Ukraine has become one with both NATO and the EU. That cannot be undone.
Also, Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin is setting other preposterous conditions before any peace talks. Also yesterday…
“Russia begins talking about peace again, seeking “recognition of territorial arrangements” and cessation of Ukrainian forces’ actions”
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/27/7404131/
Ron,
Believe me, I understand why you prefer not to read all of the embarrassing (humiliating, really) things Trump says, given that you are a supporter. Back when I supported him I had the same problem.
Here is what Trump himself has to say about what he is asking for:
So, the answer is yes. Trump wanted to be declared the rightful winner. That was his preferred solution. That is what he said.
Again, I get it. It’s painful and psychologically self destructive to have to listen to everything Trump blurts out, especially for his supporters. But that doesn’t mean his supporters should ignore what he has to say and make up feeble excuses for him. Stop doing that to yourself. Leave the cult of Trump for awhile.
Lucia:
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So you are saying that Trump made a confession that proves he is a totalitarian, and that everyone that supports him is either a totalitarian or they are in denial of the dictatorial danger Trump presents? Or, are you saying that he is not an anarchist or totalitarian dictator but won’t give up tweeting things statement reactions that are not well composed, and that is unacceptable? Or are you saying none of these things? And if that is the case can explain where your objection is rooted in terms of his past policy actions that lead you to your conclusion? I’m not looking for more objectional tweets as evidence. I agree that is his flaw and have done so from the start.
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Also, your assumption is that Trump means literally that we should terminate of all rules, regulations, and articles, even those found in the Constitution, do you think he is going to assemble a cabinet with those views? He may well suspend the sentence on sedition of the founder of the Oath Keeper’s, but are you saying that he then intends to put him in charge of the FBI? Remember, Trump is the same guy who is getting blasted here for appointing Wray, trying to be a centrist and please all sides by putting a respected career bureaucrat in charge of the FBI. By the way, I did not see any interview of Christy or harsh question of Christy who blasted Trump in his book for disliking Wray’s performance. Christy is making speeches in Iowa and New Hampshire like is trying to run for president. Is his referral of Wray more of a disqualifier for Trump to have respected and trusted Chrity’s voiced experience on the subject, or for Chrity to have given it? Real question since nobody seems to ask it.
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I don’t like Trump’s tweets or defending them but the simplest explanation in my mind for the termination of rules, etc, is that in the case when the other side is breaking all the rules secretly and perpetrating unheard of frauds that are now getting exposed it might be OK not to proceed with their concocted obscure interpretations of the fine print in regulations that he may have crossed.
Ron,
Full stop. Occam’s razor suggests that the simplest explanation for Trump’s speech is that Trump is saying what he wants to say. This should always be the default assumption when somebody says something – that they mean what they say.
Mark, do you think that Trump believes or meant to say “they’re rapists” about southern border crossers? That is the litteral quote that the MSM the Dems and a good amount of established conservatives to take to the bank. This was with his announcement of running for president in 2015, not in a tweet response to finding out that his own FBI and intelligence community were spying on him and conspiring with the opposite party to cover up outrageous corruption, the same corruption that they were falsely alleging against him.
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Mark, to answer to your assertion that what someone says should always be assumed to be what they mean, that is obviously so. But when one has huge amounts of evidence from their past statements and performance that they likely mean something very different but used the wrong word or words, then it is reasonable to ask them to clarify. Has anyone done that? Do you have any follow up quotes on Trump’s assertion that we should terminate all rules? What is your explanation for that? That Trump is obviously a monster and there is no need for clarification because you already have your mind set?
Ron
Nope. Not even close. Re-read.
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You need to stop putting words in other people’s mouths and then writing rebuttals to things they didn’t say.
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Uhmm.. I’ve made no such assumption. I never suggested Trump literally means everything he says. I said he said that. And I think it disqualifies him even if he doesn’t mean it.
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Once again: you should stop attributing claims to people who did not make them, and then wasting everyone’s time rebutting these non-claims.
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I’m not going to waste my time addressing your rebuttals to non-claims.
Ron
Actually, Mark didn’t assert that. He said it should be the default assumption.
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I go further: which is if a politician is constantly saying things he claims he doesn’t mean, he still deserves being held responsible for things he says. Like it or not, the things he actually says influence his followers and sway people. And that’s especially true if the “excuse” that he didn’t mean what he said is extremely convoluted.
Ron,
What Lucia said.
Lucia
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Well, the “terminate all rules” quote has been thrown around by the MSM, National Review and others here as evidence that he is a totalitarian that cares little about the Constitution. So unless you are only objecting to Trump’s personal trait of often using hyperbolic rhetoric then you really should make it clear that you set yourself apart from that view of taking his words literally, which is also what I thought Mark was saying. Your objection is understandable though. I just disagree. For the job we are hiring him to do it is not fatal flaw compared to the other candidate choices. His positive past performance just outweighs that negative. DeSantis is a 6-week abortion banner. I don’t think that is objectional either. Your standards though are much tougher on that. I am curious who you and Mark like right now.
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Mark, you go first.
Buzz off. I discuss stuff I’m interested in talking about, when I’m interested in discussing it. I don’t perform at your direction.
Ron
Are any of them here? Nope.
Only? I’m objecting to it. It’s not my only objection. And “personal”? I think a person with his personal traits is a poor choice as president.
Why? I don’t take his word literally and explained why they are objectionable whether or not he means them literally. But I also don’t need to somehow prove I don’t take them literally. (Though, often I don’t.)
That’s your opinion. I do not share it. And I am not required to share it. You don’t get to dictate everyone’s opinion.
Mark to Ron
Nor do I.
Lindsey Graham to President Zelenskyy “The Russians are dying… it’s the best money we’ve ever spent.”
Even I wouldn’t say it that directly.
Mark:
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Years ago at Climate Audit.org when Steven McIntyre would be regularly dissecting the flaw, omission and sometimes even tricks, in climate papers he would often be asked by his critics and also supporters what his opinion on the true answer was, particularly on paleoclimate reconstruction, “What would your reconstruction look like?” Wisely he would reply that he had no interest in that as there was no need to propose an alternative solution to demonstrate flaws. He was basically acting as peer review. I say wisely because I think he realized that this would open himself up to be criticized, probably disingenuously, in order to weaken the credibility of his audits. In fact, Michael Mann accused McIntyre of creating a flawed reconstruction in MM03 or MM05, if I recall correctly, when they were simply making an illustration of invalid results produced by Mann’s code with red noise.
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I think discussion of the qualities of various political candidates is not the same as proposing a hypothesis to push the cutting edge of science. We have no choice but to have political leaders and only slightly more than no choice as to which ones to vote for, or none at all, in the final election. I agree with Mike M, in his reply that partaking in elections is not only a citizen’s right but their civic duty. I think that could extend to other things as well, including staying informed and sharing information and evaluations on candidates.
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So I don’t see that as something that should be out of place on social media forums. Do we have a moral duty to be civil? I would think that we would. Yes. Are our politicians civil to one another? Definitely not. I think Tim Scott is trying to change that and I applaud him for it. Will his approach be successful? I think that depends upon whether the divide is simply a need for de-escalation of harsh rhetoric to win hearts and minds, or whether the key is brave confrontation to expose wrongdoing and the perpetrators to be held to account. In other words, if Trump is gone from the scene does that mean other conservatives, including nice ones like Scott, are going to get better treatment and be able to win the press and public by thoughtful dialogue? CNN is giving GOP candidates town halls so they may get a chance. We will see. I am hoping they will hit it out of the park.
While I appreciate a good pillow fight it can go on too long and people can get hurt.
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People have to be narcissistic to run for and succeed in running for public office.
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There is still time for a new face to throw their hat into the ring and to make a successful run though Obama would be the only true breakthrough that has achieved this that I know of.
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Hence the four candidates are Newsome (good Pelosi connections) and Biden, De Santis an
Newsome would be trying to get Joe to announce he is not running leaving him enough time to pick up full Democratic support without exposing him to a long campaign.
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The only fly in the ointment would be Jill and co deciding they would like a second term as holding office is a big help to running again.
Being in the very low 30’s should sink this idea.
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Trump will be found guilty of other infractions reducing his potential to be both available and popular.
De Santis will then romp in the nomination for the Republicans.
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If the economy is sunk De Santis or Trump should win .
If it holds steady the abortion issue and the number of voting poor people in America should hand it to Newsome.
If Biden stays the Democrats go down.
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I have to give a talk on ethics shortly to our discussion group.
I think I will throw in a view that ethics only exists as a concept to justify winners and the status quo.
The pillow fight is a good example of our inability to seperate our moral codes from our consideration of the actions of others.
angech,
Newsom runs a state with policies that are not acceptable to most voters in the USA. Policies acceptable to a majority in California, a state with relatively few middle class people (plenty of very wealthy and very poor), will not be acceptable in states with a larger middle class. California is losing population to other states, and those leaving are mostly middle class voters who do not support Newsom’s policies.
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I think that California politics are a bit like the politics in most large cities in the USA: a combination of wealthy and poor that ensures only politicians who support ‘progressive’ policies can get elected. The difference is that a few pockets of middle-class conservative voters still elect a handful of Republicans in California, while that that almost never happens in big cities.
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I believe Newson can’t win election to the White House because of how he has governed in California. He also has plenty of baggage, including the infamous French Laundry covid incident.
Jesus H. Christ.
In the first place, then learn some manners, buddy:
Your statement is equivalent to saying this is what I want to know, and this is the order in which you two will answer me.
This is rude.
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In the second place, I doubt very many people here care about your thoughts on their moral duty. I assure you I do not. BTW, in addition to being rude, you are also being presumptuous.
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I am providing this explanation because other may read this thread. I can see I am wasting my breath on you Ron. I really suspect you ought to see a mental health professional.
angech,
Ethics exist to enable civilization to flourish. A decline in ethics leads to a decline in civilization, as the rising rates of violent crime in the USA demonstrates. Maybe you ought to define what you mean by ‘ethics’.
SteveF (Comment #221677)
“Ethics exist to enable civilization to flourish.”
Yes, I get that.
I agree that ethics are necessary for society and civilization to both develop and function.
Hence they arise out of and are needed for our interactions.
–
However in practical terms there is no ethics there outside of those self defined boundaries.
–
All the qualities we define as good or ethical have no rational reason to exist as being better or worse than the bad qualities that also exist.
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A meteor hits, wiping out most of the life on earth.
All that pain, death and suffering for no higher purpose or reason.
The rules we live by, our ethics, help us get by.
“Do onto others as one would have them do unto you” stuff but when one gets down to the nitty gritty there is no reason or imperative why others would or should share the same values that we have.
–
One can make a value scale and argue the relative merits of the different rules and situations but the scale, it seems to me can be arbitrarily set, hence making the whole issue self defeating.
–
I think the talk will have to revolve around the accepted parameters like the Trolley problem and I should not rock the boat.
angech,
A group of 3 year olds in a sandbox clearly perceive aggression and understand who is injuring who (who is right and who is wrong). Most ethical issues are instantly understood and broadly supported: prohibitions against rape, assault, murder, and theft are almost universally accepted, except, of course, by the relative handful of criminals who violate those ethics. The consequences of society ignoring ethical violations are large and uniformly negative, with an obvious example of refusal of ‘progressive’ district attorneys to prosecute ‘minor crimes’ like shoplifting forcing retail businesses to close. When unethical behavior is rewarded (and not punished), there will inevitably be more of it.
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Government’s minimal duty is to guard against people violating ethical rules through enforcing laws. Which is why I find the lawlessness supported by the progressive left terribly troubling; they are undermining the foundation of civilization. The old saw “A government of laws, not of men” is at bottom a demand for government guided by ethics, not by power.
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As to why humans are ethical animals: I suspect it is our ability to imagine ourselves in the place of those who are suffering. It is that ability which leads to ethics, and indeed, to civilization itself.
Angech
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Angech, although I agree that ethics and how they are applied and measured is highly subjective but I also agree with Steve F that “ethics exist to enable civilization to flourish.”
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In biblical terms the first assumption is brought for in The Book of Genesis. “Then God said, “Let us make humankind in our image, according to our likeness; and let them have dominion over the fish of the sea, and over the birds of the air, and over the cattle, and over all the wild animals of the earth, and over every creeping thing that creeps upon the earth.”
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Today we can recognize that as ridiculously egocentric and self-serving to the point a large number of young people are choosing to be vegetarians on moral grounds. The question remains if humankind is good. Because good or evil is all based ultimately against how it affects humankind.
.
Mark:
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Mark, there is also a Biblical passage about one being able to clearly see the speck in the other’s eye. This will always be true. Knowing this should provide a caution to jumping to criticism or bad assumptions, especially of people you have a limited impression of. You announced that you don’t like me and you want me gone. This is a common animal trait called territorialism. Morally it is considered wrong to exclude but it is also wrong to be rude. But teaching anything to anyone you pronounce you don’t like is likely to fail. That is a good reason why it is not a great idea to make such pronouncements or to stake yourself to them. Being consistent is not always a virtue.
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The Trolley problem is interesting because it can also be manufactured. Then the decision of who to save also includes whether or not to reward the manufacture of Trolley problems.
Oh boy. A questionnaire from Northwestern for graduates asks:
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What is you gender identity:
agender
cisgender man
cisgender woman
Genderqueer or gender fluid
Non-binary
Transgender man
Transgender woman
Mine is not in the options listed
Prefer not to answer
.
What is your sexual identity or orientation?
asexual
bisexual
gay or lesbian
straight/heterosexual
queer
other
prefer not to answer
mark
I was reading comments and about to make the similar points to you to Ron. Ron asks a general question (which candidate does one like right now) and demands Mark specifically answer it. Mark is perfectly justified to tell Ron to pound sand with his question.
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I was rather amused that Ron’s reaction is to address Mark, then write some multi-paragraph lecture discussing some history about climate audit and then lecturing us about our political duty. The ending with a paragraph filled with whole bunch of rhetorical questions (and the sentence that follows at least some doesn’t appear to be Ron’s answer to his rhetorical question.)
.
Talk about a tangent into… Ron’s stream of consciousness.
Ron
You need to see the great big log in your own eye before you lecture others about specks in their eyes.
.
And now we are onto the trolley problem. . .
Angech, your projections on the 2024 race are very good but I agree again with Steve F that Newsome’s record hurts him fatally in a general election. If Jill and co let go I predict a less known moderate governor can pop up fast like Gov Jared Polis of Colorado. The question then becomes can a moderate governor beat Newsome in the primary in todays Democratic Party the way GA governor Jimmy Carter was able to beat CA governor Jerry Brown in 1976.
Lucia, you might not notice that Mark waits for you to state your position on any issue or point before he knows what his position is. I was simply hoping to see Mark’s independent opinion. If it so happens that Mark is in perfect consensus with you on all topics that is fine but also could be noteworthy.
Ron,
Lucia and I disagree on a few things. But for the sake of argument, if you wish to believe I’m her synchopant or puppet or ass kisser or whatever, you are most welcome to believe that.
Ron,
Uhmm… no. Note recently, I responded to his comment to you with
Clearly, he responded to you first.
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And in my comment a bit earlier:
Clearly, he responded to you before I did. So, based on actual evidence in the thread, I don’t have the impression he “waits” for me to respond.
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I do sometimes respond to you first when you address specific other people. So it’s possible that you might, for some reason, think he “waited” for me if I respond first. But you might wish to remember that people, including Mark, have lives and jobs. They are sometimes here; they are sometimes not here.
.
Sure.
.
But it was your response to his declining to answer your question I found funny. His telling you he didn’t want to answer your question somehow sent you off on some tangent about the history of Climate audit and our duties and citizens. And now you seem to be wanting to give us lectures from the New Testament and reminding us that “The Trolley Problem” is interesting. You could have just said I get it: you don’t want to answer my question. Fair enough.”, “shrug” or just moved on with no comment. What you did was hilarious! I found it impossible not to comment on that.
.
I suspect Mark and I sometimes disagree. But you happen to be going on and on and on about topics we seem to agree on. For that matter, SteveF, Ken and others seem to form a group who largely agrees with each other in so far as we disagree with you when you start writing excuses about Trumps bad behavior.
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Though, perhaps we do not agree on either the correct interpretation of “The Trolley Problem”, or the importance of following the advise in the New Testament. Those are digressions you’ve tried to send us on, but which we have not yet really been explored.
.
I guess to find out if we agree on those important topics:
.
1) I think the Trolley Problem is a rather uninteresting question because it is organized to present the sort of dilemma that generally differs from the sorts of ethical dilemmas that generally arise in real life. That said, people do like to discuss that problem on the intertubes, television stories and so on. (I need to find a funny video if this continues.)
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2) As an atheist, I don’t think it’s all that important to follow advise in the New Testament. That said, I’m familiar with many of the parables, stories and so on. Some are useful stories and worthy of discussing (provided we don’t think they must guide us.)
On 2– and this is not a belief, but an observation– I do notice sometimes people will bring up New Testament stories to try to insinuate the person who they are debating is somehow in the wrong for violating it. You seemed to, with that whole speck in the eye thing. But honestly, you don’t seem to see the logs in your own. But then, I also notice that when people bring up New Testament to buttress their stories, they frequently are guilty of not seeing the logs in their own eyes.
On the trolley problem
https://www.currentaffairs.org/2017/11/the-trolley-problem-will-tell-you-nothing-useful-about-morality
and more
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/behind-the-absurd-popular_b_10247650
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lDnO4nDA3kM
Lucia,
Yeah. I sometimes think that the trolley problem (and some other problems people like to pose, such as voting for unacceptable candidates) is actually an example of people facing situations where the moral mistake has already been made. (This is probably not my original thinking, but I don’t remember where I first read this idea)
In the case of the trolley, somebody is going to die no matter what. Maybe the real moral solution would have been to make sure that the situation would never come up in the first place. I have a similar view of politicians; if we’re in a situation where all of our choices are horrible, maybe we’ve already messed up before we reached that point.
I’m not sure of this, but I think there could be something to this thinking.
[Edit: I think the article you linked alludes to this, now that I read it.]
The trolley problem does tell you useful things about how the brain is wired. The gut instinct it to never take overt action that causes death and it requires the intellectual side to overrule that instinct for the “greater good”. That’s why if the decision time is short there may be differences from when you have time to think it out.
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There are similar wiring issues with “near people” and “far people”. You will sacrifice many other kids to save your kid. If none of them are your kids then you will decide things differently.
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It’s a similar issue to my ranting on medical ethics related to challenge testing for covid for example. The medical ethics committee will “do no harm” to test subjects even if the greater good is not served.
Tom Scharf,
I often wonder if we aren’t hard wired to know some things are proxies for “knowing with near certainty” vs. “something being somewhat hypothetical”.
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If I see a starving kid in front of me, I know they need help. If I had them my apple right now and watch them eat it, I know I helped. And I can continue to take concrete actions that I know will help.
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Meanwhile…. I hear a story of suffering somewhere across the globe. Even with photos and so on, my certainty that whatever sacrifice I make will help is less.
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In life often what is near and witnessed personally is known with certainty and the outcome of ones sacrifices can be seen. What is far? Not so much.
Tom
Yeah. It’s a big like: “If the two major parties end up nominating Hitler and Stalin, and there is no choice other than to vote for one or the other, which of the two are you going to vote for?” I can see that as possibly interesting to debate if you are drunk and at a bar. But unless they two actually are nominated and the election is tomorrow, it’s sort of mental mast****tion.
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The primaries are just starting. Maybe we should spend our time working to maximize the probability of not nominating Hitler or Stalin.
Hectic night in store for Kyiv. As of 5:19 pm Florida time:
“ As of now, there are 9 Russian strategic bombers in the sky. A group of 3 Tu-95s in the Caspian Sea region and another group of 6 Tu-95s is heading to the Caspian Sea region.” https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1662921354721517568?s=61&t=q3_InP1nXWdPIXqj8656mQ
They launch missles.
Also: “ Initial reports of Shahed-drones in the direction of Dnipropetrovsk region. Air alarms are starting to appear.”
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1662929215094759425?s=61&t=q3_InP1nXWdPIXqj8656mQ
ChatGPT just makes stuff up.Here is a discussion by John Hinderacker of a couple amusing examples:
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2023/05/ai-makes-st-up.php
The youngest governor of South Dakota stuff is hilarious. Less funny is the bogus legal brief that ChatGPT prepared and that a lawyer actually submitted to a judge. That one was also discussed over at Volokh.
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Hinderaker speculates on why ChatGPT lied and concludes:
If that were true, it would imply that the AI has agency.If so, we should all be afraid, very afraid. But he misses the more plausible reason: the AI is just not very competent.
.
Evidence for that is that the column actually gives THREE examples of ChatGPT making up false answers. Hinderaker missed one. The AI’s answer for South Dakota’s oldest governor was also false. But less obvious because the person identified was a real person who did in fact serve as governor.
Mike,
I agree. It doesn’t have a sense of fun or perversity. It’s just a glorified phrase completer. The wonder isn’t that it makes mistakes but rather that it ever says stuff that makes sense at all, when we get right down to it.
MikeM
I’d read the post at Volokh. The remarkable part is that a lawyer turned that in as a brief. I’d seen ChatGPT’s tendency to make up legal citations while fiddling around when the interface was made available to all of us.
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The thing about it making up the governor is we don’t know where that came from. Perhaps the AI training included fiction? And ChatGPT doesn’t recognize which things in its training were from fiction and which from fact? I don’t know.
Lucia:
.
First, I have been pretty specific that I do not excuse what I consider bad behavior, I can forgive it if it’s just rhetoric. Then I weigh it against past actions to judge performance.
.
Lucia:
If you feel religion is not a good place for providing guidance where do you suggest our youth should learn morals and values? I think a lot of people are interested in that question and I rarely hear it addressed. I’m not trying to divert the discussion if you think it’s too obvious or not the time to think about it or it’s too personal or controversial.
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I while back I stated I do not support religious orthodoxies but I respect 2500+ years of wisdom. That’s a lot of trial and error and shoulders stood on to understand sociology. Education and technology are likely having some effects but I think its wise to know the underlying tendencies and biases. We still have the age old tendencies to form tribes and cliques. It’s not surprising at all that denizens here can form a consensus on topics, even controversial ones, like Trump.
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Lucia:
Ahhh Nazi’s and Commies, my favorite topics. Hitlers and Stalins are all around us. Give a local school board or condo president a little power. I’m sure many of us have witnessed it. Give them absolute power and it’s easy to extrapolate. This also ties into my huge appreciation for the founders foresight and ability to set up a system to protect from this. The concern I have is that people may forget it is constantly being probed to be undermined. I don’t think Trump has been the dangerous one doing that. However, should he gain election again and took any actions similar to what the Democrats have threatened, pack the Supreme Court, pack the Senate, federalize control of all elections, I would be the first denouncing him. Remember, we criticize him for being too weak in action. His biggest flaw was getting his appointees plowed under by the opposition’s dirty tricks, making Sessions surrender power, setting up Flynn on bogus charges, somehow neutralizing Barr and Durham. (We still don’t know exactly how that happened.)
Ron,
Huh. And yet just a few comments ago the fact that Lucia and I have agreed on several points was, according to you, evidence that my positions were insincere. Go figure.
You wonder why I don’t like you.
Ron Graf
Well…. oddly, I didn’t say anything about providing guidance. But for what it’s worth, I don’t think religion is particularly good for teaching morals and values. Lots of discussions about being good and fair can be grounded in how someone feels if something is done to them. And this happens even when a kid is also exposed to religion.
.
What I mean by being an atheist is I don’t believe in god. I can certainly be aware of religious and other teachings. You don’t need to believe in good to appreciate those portions of teachings that are wise.
Mark,
My impression is he is insinuating that we’ve formed a tribe or clique. Not sure.
.
Maybe we formed one or not. I don’t think it’s that important.
.
But I know our views aren’t always 100% alike. I’m pretty sure you are very pro-gun. I’m more “meh” on that topic. SteveF and I have different opinions on people coming forward about past sexual harassment. I know I’ve disagreed with both MikeM and Mike N on things. I don’t often disagree with Ken– but he usually doesn’t get into fights with people. he just states his own view. So I can’t say with confidence that “Ken agrees with me that X”. I’m often unsure whether I agree with angech about things. Recently, Russel has mostly been reporting on what’s up with the war– I appreciate that.
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Lots of us — not just me– are disagreeing with Ron’s interpretations of Trumps statements and behavior. I think Ron finds it inconceivable to find that people might all disapprove of Trump without being a “clique” or “Tribe”. My reaction to him finding that inconceivable is “oh. well.”
Lucia,
~grins~ I know. I’d evangelize and try to sell you on a good .380 ACP but. What for. You know your mind on the matter.
(cough cough) It is such a sweet gun though! A real joy to shoot, particularly with a red dot sight on it.
Oh well. It’s all good.
Mark:
.
You would say, “Go back and look at my quote, Buddy! I didn’t say that. You are a %#$% by always making stuff up that I didn’t say yada yada, and this proves how rude you are and is the reason I don’t like you.”
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But, Mark, I am not saying that. I perfectly understand when you are sure someone said something but they really didn’t because you expected something to be said or missed a word or two. Don’t sweat it. Here’s my quote:
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I am not going back more than six months or so but I really can’t remember you having a difference of opinion with Lucia since then. Maybe I’m wrong. I still don’t know about your difference with Lucia on guns or what that controversy was. That must have been more than six months ago.
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I’m sure you have different opinions than Lucia. I just don’t see them voiced. (shrug) I’m also confident that you likely share 90% similar opinions on controversial issues. But that’s likely true for everyone here, including me. What makes conversation interesting to me is what I learn or what I can share that is new to the other’s knowledge base. I think our difference may be that I am interested in snooping out gray areas and finding the truth out there, rank exploits and musings, testing ideas, etc. You have said it yourself that you are just looking for a friendly hangout. You likely choose friends by ones you share views with. It just so happened when I revisited this site a year or so ago I shortly brought up a topic that was mostly unknown to you and the others here. You found that objectionable and were skeptical. I was happy to present my case and investigate further then and afterward, which I did and I can share sometime if the topic pops up. Then I had the audacity not to diss Trump when I had missed the meeting that you had to do that or see a psychiatrist.
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I like hearing both sides. I make a point to read liberal articles (except Huff Po. I just can’t). I don’t want to get Angech in trouble but I think he shares my curiosity about the other side and I see him often venturing into the ATTP crowd. Oddly ATTP is rather cordial to me. Of course, one has to suffer the gauntlet of hissing, and spitting from the crowd. I have huge respect for Angech.
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If you keep saying “I don’t like you.” You are naturally not going to trust anything I put forward. This is the dilemma of our world’s division. I would accept your apology if it was offered. I don’t hold grudges.
Mark,
Come the apocalypse I’m sure I’ll regret not owing one.
But then, come the apocalypse, I would probably regret not living on some sort of weird farm with a mix of all sorts of livestock, crops, various trees and so on so that I can have a varied diet. (I say weird because it would be economically inefficient until the apocalypse. Economies of scale apply if you don’t decide you need several different types of fruit trees, several types of berries, several types of nut trees, some plots of corn, some of soy, some of wheat…. some buck wheat somewhere, perhaps some other beans. Potatoes, of course. Then, a big varied vegetable garden. And of course, more than enough to feed yourself, whichever of your extended family makes it to your farmette, and perhaps some neighbors.
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Oh, and you have to be sure to be able to gather seeds or what not to replant. And develop skills to help the live stock during birthing season.
.
Sadly, a gun could come in handy during less apocaliptic events too. But I really don’t want to spend time learning how to clean it, store it, shoot it and so on. It’s rather useless to have it and not also take some lessons.
Lucia, thank you for sharing your views on religion. I find it an important topic and yet very seldom discussed. I’m curious what you think of born again Christian politicians? Can we trust them? Does it depend to you on the individual? I did not like Bush’s ban on fetal stem cells but I don’t hear a lot about it. Did Bush of other religious presidents bother you? I don’t mind Pence’s religiosity so much but just not impressed that he is a mover and shaker-upper of the deep state, which is what I think we need.
Ron
We didn’t have a violent disagreement. He’s expressed his views. I’ve expressed mine. Neither one of us needs to convert the other or explain the morality of our position.
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To my knowledge you have never shared anything that I found to be new to my knowledge base.
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No. Our differences is that your interpretation of the exact same facts is different from mine (and most other people here.) You post some highly tortured interpretations.
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What?
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Uhmm… it’s weird to read you characterize your paragraph after paragraph after paragraphs of justifying Trumps behavior and explaining how great he is as merely “not to diss”.
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Honestly, one of the features I find annoying about many of your posts is your tendency to seem to be trying to “frame” your arguments as something different to what they actually are. You do often come off as extremely disingenuous.
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Honestly, I can’t imagine what you think Mark should apologize for. Telling you he doesn’t like you? Disagreeing with you? Not accepting your interpretations of the meaning of Trumps statements?
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I honestly do see how he’s done you any harm that would merit apology. Insinuating he owes you one…. well… Maybe you should state precisely what you think he’s done that warrants you insinuating you’ve been injured in some way and deserve an apology.
Ron
I think born again Christians have just as much right to run for office as anyone else. I think we can trust some of them and not others. That a president is religious doesn’t bother me. I decide to support or not support someone based on their political position, policies, effectiveness and so on. Generally, good policies have good secular bases. If they happen to align with a religion: fine.
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I rarely pay much attention to their religion unless they are trying to force religion qua religion onto the public. In the US, successful politicians rarely do.
It’s 9AM in Kyiv. There was a major attack on civilian centers by Russia last night. The Ukrainians are reporting “The Ukrainian air defense destroyed 37 of 40 Russian cruise missiles, and 30 out of 35 drones between midnight and 5 am today.” I will know about the damage from the hits later today.
If you track the spy planes, the USAF launched FORTE10 from Naval Air Station Sigonella in Sicily about two hours ago [midnight Florida time]. It’s a drone, Northrop Grumman RQ-4B Global Hawk.
It’s currently 51,000 feet over the Aegean Sea. From the current track, I’d guess it’s bound for a day [and night maybe] over the Black Sea.
Current screenshots:
https://twitter.com/rklier21/status/1663071416596455424?s=20
And:
https://twitter.com/rklier21/status/1663071942964854784?s=20
You can watch its progress live all day at these links:
https://www.flightradar24.com/FORTE10/307c5993
And:
https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=ae5421
Lucia,
“Mark,
My impression is he is insinuating that we’ve formed a tribe or clique. Not sure.”
A while back someone said it’s sort of like an echo chamber…
His opinion may be changing, there seem to be two echoes now.
.
If someone doesn’t know what their position is until someone else speaks, that person’s positions are insincere, you disingenuous weasel.
.
I apologize for nothing to you. I don’t like you, I certainly don’t trust anything you say, and I think you’re mostly full of it.
Lucia,
You’re right. Maybe low probability scenarios X or Y might influence someone a bit [Like being ready for a SHTF situation or a home invasion]. But what I’ve found is, I shoot because I enjoy it. I don’t buy the best apocalypse guns, or even necessarily the best self defense guns. I buy guns I like to shoot. And all the rest; I like cleaning guns and reloading ammo and taking classes, the whole ball of wax.
So yep. If you know you’re not interested in spending time on it and it’s not enjoyable to you, well, there you have it.
The ‘trust’ part of this is of minor interest to me. I’m not sure I know what is being referred to. I would like to believe (and maybe I kid myself) that I’m not looking for people to just trust what I put forward. I mean, I guess it’s something like this – it’s fine if you trust what I say (but I warn you, caveat emptor!) but I don’t view it as a problem if anyone (or everyone even) doesn’t.
[Edit: Sorry, thinking out loud. I’d view it as a problem if absolutely everyone didn’t trust something I said. I’d think I made a mistake actually, that’s a problem of sorts.]
Guns.
I had a BB and a .22 as a child the teenager.
Dad had a rifle [.303] and a couple of shotguns for our magpie geese hunting at the swamps of Humpty Doo.
Do I miss them?
No.
Australia brought in some decent gun laws that let farmers and enthusiasts have them but not the general public.
Reduced the number of accidental shootings.
My wife is anti gun and anti hunting.
Told one of my duck shooting friends in no uncertain terms.
Kind of fun when he caught us at the local show shooting BB’s at the tin ducks with our 3 young boys.
angech,
I got invited out to shoot beer cans with a 0.22 when I was in college. I shot twice, said, “Oh, this is boring. And it’s cold out here. I think I’ll go in and have some hot chocolate.” Then I went in and had some hot chocolate.
.
I really don’t enjoy shooting.
.
I’m not anti-hunting generally. Obviously, there need to be some regulations to prevent accidents. In some areas, shooting is allowed right up to the boundaries of private property. A while back (80s?) I remember a story of a hunger shooting a woman hanging laundry in her back yard because he mistook her mittens or something for the tail of a deer. Obviously, she was not wearing hunter orange.
.
When I go hiking in parks, I make sure it’s not near ranges where hunting is allowed. I don’t hike that often — but so far so good.
.
When I hear gun ownership debates, I’m a big “on the one hand/on the other hand.” I don’t know enough details about weapons themselves to judge some of the claims. Also: I do think the fervent anti-gun people need to work on amending the constitution to get what they want. The 2nd amendment must mean something and the simplest reading is people get to own guns.
Angech,
That is an awesome place name, Humpty Doo. I half expected it to be slang for something at first.
.
For all that I’ve lived in the US South most of my life, I’m not a hunter. Every part of hunting turns me off; killing some hapless animal, having to skin it and clean it, bleh. I’d probably get over that if it was hunt or starve but it’s not my idea of a good time. Nah, I just shoot recreationally. I love skeet although I’m wretched at it. But I get that guns aren’t entertaining for everyone.
.
Politically, I strongly support the right to bear arms.
By the way Ron, when you get back, I’m hoping you answer this
I mean: what unknown topic do you think you brought up and when do you think you brought it up?
Lucia,
I took that to be a reference to the ECA. Back on the last thread Ron said this:
I replied in the next comment that he was indeed mistaken, but I guess it didn’t ‘take’.
Shrug.
🙂
.
“ A New York-based attorney is facing potential sanctions after using OpenAI’s ChatGPT to write a legal brief he submitted to the court. The problem? The AI Chatbot filled the brief with citations to fictitious cases, a symptom of AI chatbots called “hallucinating.” In an affadavit, the lawyer claimed, “I was unaware of the possibility that [ChatGPT’s] content could be false.”..”
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https://www.breitbart.com/tech/2023/05/29/sweet-little-ai-lies-new-york-lawyer-faces-sanctions-after-using-chatgpt-to-write-brief-filled-with-fake-citations/
The gun control debate in the US, to my recollection, started with the first ‘modern’ mass shooting, the University of Texas belltower incident in 1966. I remember it all too well.
The debate has been ongoing for 57 years. Since then maybe a QUARTER BILLION guns have entered circulation in the US and the two sides are still chanting the same slogans. Estimates range from 240 to 440 million guns in circulation today. If all gun sales stopped today, street thugs and nut jobs would still be able to get guns for the next hundred years.
The only way to get in front of this is to control the nut jobs and street thugs doing the killing, but the Liberals fight that at every turn.
We are doomed. Links:
https://www.texastribune.org/2022/06/01/texas-tower-shooting-myth-good-guy-with-gun/
https://www.gunpolicy.org/firearms/citation/quotes/6676
https://americangunfacts.com/gun-ownership-statistics/
https://www.thetrace.org/2023/03/guns-america-data-atf-total/#:~:text=In%202020%2C%20the%20group%20reported,account%20for%20guns%20leaving%20circulation.
This is Memorial Day …remembering the Klier ancestors who served in the military.
Master Sargent Russell Klier, my dad, Served in the Philippines during World War 2
Corporal George Klier, my great uncle, War hero at Verdun during World War 1
Private Johann Baptista Klier, my great, great grandfather, served with the Pennsylvania Volunteers during the Civil War
Lucia, so your example of how to handle a disagreement is that you have no strong opinion about gun ownership and Mark likes guns. I would call that reaching. I notice that Mark was absent when people were stating their positions on abortion. It may be that he has no strong opinion on it. If you remember, my strong opinion was not on the act itself but the use of it as a political cudgel to divide those that do have a strong opinion on it. You might think that is a figment of my imagination. But I think that can be made into a thoughtful discussion. It did not need to be heated. You could have said that you acknowledge it is so on many issues but not abortion. Or, acknowledge it is done with abortion but you feel it is the conservatives that are more using it to rile their base. If we can acknowledge that political division is a problem then the natural point of interest is what are the causes.
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On your claim that there is nothing I have ever written that you didn’t already know, I find impossible to believe unless you are rationalizing that nothing I say you can know is true and thus it does not add to your knowledge. This phenomena is also a real problem that is at the heart of the great divide. If you don’t believe that is true then I think that could be a discussion.
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If you can’t have discussions of conflicting viewpoints among individuals that agree 80-90% on the universe of issues then who can you discuss them with? Nobody, which is yet another contributor to the overall dilemma.
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Russell:
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Thanks, I agree with your comment. I don’t know if Lucia is for changing the 2nd Amendment of not but she does agree that we should honor it as long as we have it. I agree. But I am on the fence about high magazine semi-auto rifles unless they are .22 cal. They seem unnecessary for home defense, target shooting and hunting. I don’t believe they would help in an armed insurrection. Maybe in they would help in a societal collapse. But I welcome the other side.
On this Memorial Day I raise my flag to salute those who gave up their lives for our freedoms by remember the morning of December 7, 1941, at Pearl Harbor. At 8:00a on that Sunday the band on the USS Nevada had been standing at attention to play the national anthem since 7:55a when explosions could be heard in the distance and smoke seen rising from the nearby Hickam Field. At 7:58a a chain of Japanese torpedo bombers fell one by one into a line at ship’s mast height skimming over the harbor toward the Nevada and her seven other battleships lined up behind it on battleship row. Simultaneously dive bombers hit their targets on adjacent Ford Island Naval Air Station prompting the famous radio broadcast, “Air Raid, Pearl Harbor. This is no drill.” Immediately the message was re-broadcast over the PA systems of the West Virginia and Oklahoma, where ensign Herb Rommel, watching, the USS Helena get slammed by the first torpedo, followed with: “This is no shit, God damn it!” As to punctuate his last word Oklahoma was awakened by the first of seven torpedoes it would receive in the next ten minutes before it would roll over, entombing 429 sailors.
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At 8:00a the conductor of the band on the Nevada broke the stare from his wristwatch and led the playing of the national anthem while a rear gunner of one of the torpedo bombers strafed their deck, narrowly missing the band but shredding their flag. The band continued playing to the anthem’s completion before dashing for cover. Nine minutes later at 8:10a the USS Arizona directly behind them suffered a direct hit with an armor piercing bomb dropped from high level, detonating the ship’s forward magazine and instantly killing over a thousand men, about half the people killed that day.
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The Nevada was the only ship able to get under way during the attacks, drawing it as a primary target of the second wave, while every ship still afloat conducted rescues and fire crews battling flames. Nevada intentionally grounded it on the side of the entrance neck of the Harbor to avoid sinking and blocking the harbor entrance. Oklahoma was able to rescue 32 survivors trapped in the hull the next day using air drills to cut a hatch.
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Many different points can be made by this event but chronicling it is at least something I could do for them.
https://www.tapsbugler.com/the-star-spangled-banner-at-pearl-harbor/#:~:text=Ship%20musicians%20of%20the%20USS,musicians%20completed%20honoring%20the%20flag.
https://sofrep.com/specialoperations/trapped-at-pearl-harbor-escape-from-the-battleship-oklahoma/
https://www.staradvertiser.com/2016/11/30/hawaii-news/air-raid-pearl-harbor-this-is-not-a-drill/
Ron Graf
“But I am on the fence about high magazine semi-auto rifles unless they are .22 cal.“
Nice try, but I am not falling for your Liberal trap:
Keep everyone arguing about hardware minutia and ignore the real problem.
Liberals have been doing it for 66 years.
The problem is controlling the nut jobs and street thugs. I will discuss nothing else.
Ron
I remember you advanced abhorrent reasons we should “consider” when deciding whether abortion was allowed and when. Among those reasons: considering depriving the rights of young women to increase the economic commodity of babies for the sake of trans couples who may be unable to bear their own.
It was a discussion– you shared your thoughts. I told you I found some of them abhorent.
I don’t think it was heated. You stated your positions and thoughts. I responded with mine. I didn’t see any flames.
I don’t think I ever said abortion is used by conservatives to rile their base.
I don’t see how we can “acknowledge that political division is a problem ” nor why we should. Political division is a natural outcome of people having different opinions, values, information, interests.
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Ok. You find it impossible to believe. What do you think you have written that I didn’t already know? You should be able to tell me which facts you think you have enlighted me on. What I generally see as “new” is your odd interpretation of the meaning of facts I already know. I guess your interpretations are new to me. But I sense that isn’t what you are claiming.
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I know you frequently decree that people here (including me) have failed to make themselves aware of something, proceed to tell us that thing and we tell you we were aware of that thing. Mark gave an example above.
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Well… your answer to your question is incorrect. The correct answer is:tons of people including some I disagree with more and some I disagree with less.
Ron
I’m neither for or against changing it. I can’t from an opinion on mere “change” without hearing or reading the actual proposed change. I’m unaware of any amendment proposal in circulation.
Russell, I said I agreed with your comment. You did not qualify about hardware types. I am not a liberal and I generally don’t set traps or intentionally divert discussion. It happens naturally as I am reminded of that particular issue’s conflicts. I think it is generally accepted that automatic rifles are banned except for special collectors. Also, I think flame throwers and grenade launchers should remain banned. I agree that banning hand guns will make the country safe for armed criminals as evidenced by many mass shootings taking place in gun free zones.
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I am thankful for your ancestors contribution to our military. My father was a mechanic on the Sperry ball turrets on B-24, B-25 and B-26s. He wanted to be a pilot. I am probably here thanks to him being near sighted.
My mother’s father served in WWII. He was past the age to be drafted but was an MD so volunteered because of the need. He was in the Pacific theater.
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My father’s father didn’t serve. He was also past the age to be drafted in WWII. I think the military had no special need for near sighted attorneys.
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Jim’s Dad served in the army corp of engineers– Pacific theater.
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My near sighted Dad served in the Korean war– counter intelligence. (What is that OSS?) He joked he fought the battle of San Francisco.
Lucia:
What the heck is that? Ron is for depriving rights of innocent young women. Ron presumably wants to turn them into breeders for affluent trans couples who will be in control. This sounds very much like The Handmaidens Tale. I guess this is part of my new and strangely awful interpretations on facts that I am infamous for. Sigh.
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It can’t possibly be that I view each right as coming with a commensurate responsibility. In the pregnancy termination rights the responsibilities include facing the situation and making a timely decision. It also would include reaching out for counseling of available options from parents or other trusted individual. I didn’t know about the cheap availability of 99% accurate home pregnancy tests and over the counter morning after pills and mail order abortion pills that are effective to 11 weeks. But I’m sure this is part of current HS health class.
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And I’m sure you already were aware of it, just not my twisted thinking that it shifted the responsibility to young women to know about their early resources. Double sigh.
Following up on my thought about Angech, I went over to ATTP and searched his name and found this from two weeks ago:
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Angech, would you like to collaborate on a book about social media dialogue dilemmas? 😉
Ron
Ok. Let’s recap things you wrote last month.
Here you suggested women’s sports issues are more important than abortion issues. That is, suggesting that something as trivial as sports is somehow more important that women’s ability to control their entire life.
Here you suggest the freedom to chose abortion gives a “slightly borader choice of portoins” freedom and that some unstated other freedoms are more important. This is certainly minimizing the burden.
Here, in the context of discussing determining the date when women who did not act quickly enough would be forced to carry a fetus, you suggest that the benefit of providing to a childless trans couple be considered:
I guess that “benefit” seems worth of consideration if — as you previously suggested– abortion only represents a “slightly broader choice of options” to a woman who finds her self pregnant. In reality, pregancy has large physical, financial, economic and social effects, many costly to the woman who cannot chose aboriton.
Here, you are doubling down and the notion we should balance woman’s right to control her body against certain “positives”– like providing the economic boom of babies for adoption to those consumers who might want them. (Sure, you don’t say “economic” or “consumers”, but that’s what you are telling us to consider.)
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All of these suggest you continuously return to the notion that we could consider the “benefit” of providing babies to other presumably deserving people, and that this benefit is somehow worthy of consideration when forcing women to carry preganancies the woman doesn’t want to carry.
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I get you keep protesting that you are somehow not suggesting “Handmaiden’s Tale”. But no one other than you used that metaphor. I’m just pointing out you are making abhorrent economic arguments for reasons to force women to donate a portion of their lives for the “benefit” of others. When making these arguments you minimize the burden of unwanted pregnancy, raise absolutely trivial rights that affect a small minority of people (compete in the Olympics?!) and suggest we should balance the right to control your life against the economic benefit of supplying babies to the adoptoin market.
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That’s how you sound. If you don’t like it, that’s not my fault.
edit: Link to last months post so readers can find these in context.
http://rankexploits.com/musings/2023/april-17-open-thread/
So, flamethrowers are not my thing. This said, flamethrowers are generally legal. Apparently not in California, but most other places.
https://www.online-paralegal-programs.com/what-states-are-flamethrowers-legal-in/
[Edit: not the most authoritative link, I know.]
Ron,
We can all go back and read just fine. We were all here for all of it. So spare us the gaslighting and the double sighs. If you don’t like how you are treated here, don’t let the door hit you in the ass on the way out.
Thanks for that link to Humpty Doo, Mark.
Opened lots of memories.
Agree with the right to bear arms, the sense of responsibility not to use them unless absolutely needed
I have a friend who goes deer hunting, wild, imported and supposedly a nuisance to farmers.
Wild pigs are shot in Queensland and the Northern Territory especially.
Dingoes, a wild dog that made it to Australia Millenia ago, camels and water buffalo, brumbies (wild horses) and goats, rabbits all imported nearly 2 centuries ago are targeted for both nuisance value or meat.
Plus, sadly, the kangaroo.
Limited duck hunting season.
No bears or mountain lions here.
I agree that as one gets older and wiser the idea of hunting becomes abhorrent.
Lucia’s insight on shooting was refreshing as well as her take on how to handle miserable cold conditions and lack of interest.
Hot chocolate!
I agree.
Ron,
Thanks for putting up that snippet from ATTP’s site.
It was heartfelt and it was good that ATTP allowed it as comment there about the quality of comments there.
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I like this site because of the diversity of opinion as it has evolved over the years.
I like ATTP in the sense that it provides a wonderful example of sophism used to defend the indefensible in its chamber of affirmation.
It includes a group of very bright thinkers who have lost their sense of objectivity and I keep hoping, sigh, to save one of them.
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There is no one that needs saving here.
When I find myself persevering on a particular theme that others are not interested in, I have a few, several things come to mind.
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An old aphorism, stop digging.
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Rule 1, Rule 2 ( see rule one) applies to my wife and site proprietors.
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Never give good advice.
Cheer people up instead.
Keep commentating when you want
Thanks Angech. Good advice. I hope Chatbot is listening. Or not, it might be their secret to taking over. Just butter us up.
Lucia, these are all points you have brought up and that I explained how you misinterpreted, latching on to the wrong ideas while ignoring the valid points. Everyone has already heard it. So I will gladly take Angech’s advice and break an otherwise endless cycle.
Ron
No Ron, I haven’t misinterpreted you. And, for the record, sighs are not arguments. As for your points about the availbility of birth control, pregancy tests etc: you advanced those before. I’ve already commented on them. Go back to last months thread and read. With respect to limiting women’s access to abortion of finding the correct cut-oof time, they aren’t “valid” points.
A milestone has been achieved… OSINT site ORYX has documented pictorial evidence that Russia has lost 2,000 tanks in the war. Their counting methods are very conservative so the actual losses are greater. [Ukrainian MOD puts the number at 3,802 tanks lost]
An interesting side note is that included in the 2,000 tanks ORYX lists 544 tanks being captured by the Ukrainians; that means that the Russians have supplied the Ukrainians with more tanks than NATO. Complete list:
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
Of course, the captured Russian tanks are of dubious quality and reliability so Ukraine has been using them in odd ways. During the Battle of Vuhledar, they dug holes and buried them up to their turrets. This compensated for their lack of modern reactive armor.
Another aside, Vuhledar was a great Ukrainian victory. It was the largest tank battle of the war. Russia lost over 100 tanks and Ukraine retained possession of the valuable coal resources. From WSJ, Free video: “Watch Russian Tanks Run Into the Same Trap Near Vuhledar, Ukraine”
https://youtu.be/HIpT7EfeW_4
From NYT, behind a paywall: “How Russia Lost an Epic Tank Battle”,
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/01/world/europe/ukraine-russia-tanks.html
Ron:
I want to find out if I have misunderstood you. These are all yes/no questions. If I have misunderstood you, your answers will all be a firm ‘no’ to all of them. If your answer is yes, maybe, or contains a paragraph long explanation of your ideas about why your answer is anything other than a firm, simple “no”, then I have not misunderstood you.
(BTW: If some of the questions seem repetitive, it’s because Ron described some nearly indistinguishable ides when explaining how or why his previous position was misunderstood. Those who want to review the thread and see why these questions are relevant can go here: https://rankexploits.com/musings/2023/april-17-open-thread/ )
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Now for the yes/no questions to Ron specifically. I’ve numbered them to allow him to answer (1: no, 2: no… or list whatever his yes/no/maybe answer is.)
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1. Do you think the rules regarding trans-women in college sports is either as important or more important to the lives of most women as their ability to control procreation including access to abortion?
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2. Do you think the topic of abortion is “artificially amplified out of proportion to what it’s actual impacts are in young people’s lives today”?
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3. Do you think the issue of abortion is too unimportant for a voter to allow it to influence or sway their vote?
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4. Do you think the possibility that a woman made “several mistakes” in becoming pregnant is a reason the time window for abortion should be kept on the short side (e.g. earlier than the first trimester)?
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5. Do you think imposing strict time limits on the right to abortion (i.e. < end of first trimester) is only a slight reduction in options for women who are already pregnant and don’t wish to carry the fetus two more trimesters?
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6. Do you think when considering ending an unwanted preganancy through abortion, women should “think” about carrying it to term in order to provide a childless couple the dream of their life?
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7. Do you think we, the time window for a legal abortion should be lower than otherwise because there are childless couples who want kids? (edited for clarity.)
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8. Do you think we, as a society, should consider giving less time for a pregnant woman to chose abortion because the number of babies available kids for adoption is low?
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9. Do you think the “productive purpose” of pregnancy is a justification for keeping the time window for making a decision on abortion short?
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10. Do you think the time window for legal abortion should “be variable depending on society’s demand for adopted babies”?
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11. Do you think the option of putting a child up for adoption is a reason to keep the time limit for legal abortion on the low side (e.g. before the end of the first trimester)?
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12. Do you think some people somewhere using the slogans “war on women” or “my body my choice” are a justification for restricting the time limit for abortion?
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13. Do you think we should “make [abortion] laws restrictive enough to nudge [pregnant or non-pregnant women’s] behavior in what the collective agrees is a beneficial direction”?
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14. Do you think both of the following simultaneously: (a) the lack of “clear consensus” means “we should default to allow complete individual liberty” for vaccination and (b) the similar lack of clear consensus of abortion does not call for individual liberty on abortion?
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15. Do you think low cost abortions would justify requiring already pregnant women after a brief time window while high cost abortion abortion would justify allowing fetuses to be aborted at a later stage of development?
All of these questions are based on things you’ve said– sometimes while “clarifying” and elaborating on “complexity”. Give us your “yes/no/maybe” answers to help us see if you have been misunderstood.
Lucia,
Ron today flatly contradicting things he wrote earlier is not you misunderstanding him. It’s just [It’d just be] Ron flatly contradicting things he wrote earlier.
Just saying.
Moving away from ad hom quicksand, I see in the news that judges are now issuing fines on top of jail sentences to J6 defendants in order to confiscate any money they might have raised on sites that allowed them to raise money. I think this is another perilous step by the state using poor legal foresight
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Their thinking is that the protests were illegitimate since the allegations of election taint is baseless. And, we know they are baseless because we see that noted as fact in every sentence of every story in the MSM mentioning it. It’s only the claim of the corrupt, reckless Trump. However, if the protesters believed the claims were true does this lessen the degree of their crimes? The law in every other aspect gives weight to it per the mens rea doctrine. So the answer should be yes. Are protests different? Let’s compare it to the 2020 BLM riots.
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There were very few prosecutions and virtually no sentences handed to BLM rioters. The unspoken moral is that their crimes were in the heat of reaction to a real injustice, the murder of George Floyd. But, for argument’s sake we learn later that Floyd is seen by a witness ingesting drugs as the police arrived and the medical examiner found a 10X lethal content in his stomach. In other words he was dying of an OD while being restrained. Does this mean the BLM protesters are now responsible for their damage? I would say it should not change the legal treatment of their crimes. If it was found that the medical examiners report was withheld for political benefit should those that did that be responsible for all the crimes? I think they should be at least fired from their office. What if the press simply refused to print the medical examiners findings except in the conservative news. Is the press guilty of a crime? No, they have First Amendment protection.
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Now, conversely, if the 2020 election allegations were reported in the conservative media but not the MSM are the J6 protesters responsible for their riots or trespass? What if the allegations turn out later to have been true but covered up by the government? Does this make that exonerate the conservative press or the protesters? I would say it does for the press but not the protestor’s crimes. But their crimes would be less due to the increased plausibility of mens rea. And going back to the start of this, they should absolutely be able to be supported by donations without government confiscation.
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Note: the FBI – CIA meddling in the 2020 election is now beyond denial with the confession of Mike Morell’s to the House Judiciary Committee. https://judiciary.house.gov/media/in-the-news/biden-campaign-blinken-orchestrated-intel-letter-discredit-hunter-biden-laptop
Ron Graf
I did not call you names. I did not suggest your positions are wrong because you advanced them. Neither did anyone else.
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I am hoping you answer the questions I specifically asked you. The reason I want you to answer them is you say I have misunderstood your positions. You answering them will show whether I have misunderstood them or not.
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They should be easy to answer. I think I bent over backwards to make it easy for you to answer. You could, for example write “My answer is “no” to all other than x,y,z, to which I answer “yes”. Easy peasy.
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Meanwhile, people here can see you posted a five paragraph discussion about your bug-bears rather than clarify your positions, which you complained are misunderstood.
Ron,
I should add: You have previously requested I probe you. Consider yourself probed.
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For the time being, for clarity, I merely want to know the yes/no/maybe answers to those questions. I do not need to hear the reasoning for your holding the position you hold. And for now, I also don’t want you to provide your reasoning. Simple yes,no, maybe would allow for a more time efficient and orderly discussion.
This is simply to determine if you do or do not hold those positions.
Couple of articles on Ukraine news stories. A couple that caught my attention.
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“ In the eye-opening piece, American F-16 pilots even give this admission:
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Were they to fly at Russian lines to take out artillery, air defenses, or jets, Ukraine’s F-16 pilots would likely get an alert to signal detection by enemy radar long before getting close enough to shoot, according to John Venable, a former F-16 pilot in the US Air Force.
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“All you can do is dive for the dirt and hope you can put a hill between you and the missile’s guidance systems,” said Venable, now a senior research fellow for defense policy at the Heritage Foundation, a Washington think tank. Without that cover “your chances of survival are not great,” he said”
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On the Patriot AA missile batteries
“ In just two raids on Kiev (May 15 and 29), the Ukrainian air defense system fired at least 20% of the annual production of MIM-104 anti-aircraft guided missiles, and taking into account training and other less large-scale strikes, as well as losses in warehouses and during transportation, apparently about 40%.”
..
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“ He makes a shocking statement: that there’s no evidence the Patriot has ever even shot down anything. Followed by an even more shocking question: does the system even work at all?
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The point is there is no evidence that Saudi Arabia has intercepted any Houthi missiles during the Yemen conflict. And that raises a disquieting thought: Is there any reason to think the Patriot system even works?”
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Links
SITREP 5/29/23: Kiev Rocked as New Satellite Photos Prove Patriot Destruction
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https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-52923-kiev-rocked-as-new-satellite?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjo3NDAxMzM5NCwicG9zdF9pZCI6MTI0MjkyMjQyLCJpYXQiOjE2ODU0MDY0OTgsImV4cCI6MTY4Nzk5ODQ5OCwiaXNzIjoicHViLTEzNTEyNzQiLCJzdWIiOiJwb3N0LXJlYWN0aW9uIn0.y012XRXyNcodqfXQ9aZBvtO4zcF2TdKBv6Nwj0_lfks&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
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Latest Headlines Digest – The West’s Tone Drastically Shifts
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https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/latest-headlines-digest-the-wests?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1351274&post_id=124039204&isFreemail=true&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjo3NDAxMzM5NCwicG9zdF9pZCI6MTI0MDM5MjA0LCJpYXQiOjE2ODUyMzQyNDUsImV4cCI6MTY4NzgyNjI0NSwiaXNzIjoicHViLTEzNTEyNzQiLCJzdWIiOiJwb3N0LXJlYWN0aW9uIn0.Cf54HhJUdcOKWMrEXTCSwnx71slYSMXwkuFFXf-EfoY&utm_medium=email
Ed,
Regarding F16’s, yup. That was one of the purposes of stealth aircraft if I recall correctly. Stealth aircraft supposedly take out air defenses and conventional aircraft follow.
Regarding Patriot, well… The system is probably hyped to some extent. This said, I am extremely skeptical that it doesn’t work at all. But military secrecy makes this difficult to know for sure.
And so it starts, the 2023 hurricane season. NHC has identified a tropical disturbance in the Gulf. Only given a 20% chance of developing into a storm but it should bring heavy rain to us on the West coast of Florida in a few days.
Link:
https://twitter.com/rklier21/status/1663618512290553858?s=20
Ed,
SIMPLICIUS THE THINKER really,? …and on Substack no less. Your supply of obscure experts is never-ending. All serious reports on the F-16 and Patriot system going to Ukraine say these are very positive additions. They are proven stalwarts in the US and NATO militaries and have been so for years. Do you think a reference to an unknown author on Substack is going to undermine the long-established history of these pieces of hardware?
BTW, I wasn’t dissing F-16’s, they are great fighter planes. My impression is that military operations are a lot more complicated in general than we make them out to be. F-16’s bring you capabilities. It’s not a 1 size fits all type thing though. A plane or a missile or a radar or a battery is just a piece in a bigger system at the end of the day, and it’s the big picture (I think) that matters. Anyways.
Russell, I note no comment from you on the changing position of a number of Ukraine supporting western news channels that were linked to.
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SIMPLICIUS didn’t write the news articles, he linked and commented on them. Western media is slowly prepping its readers for continued “bad news” regarding Ukraine.
Mark and Ed,
My F-16 thoughts… remember I have absolutely no military credentials so my thoughts may be crap.
The F-16 is considered a fourth-generation fighter. Both Russia and the US have fifth-generation fighters in their arsenal, so this aircraft is somewhat dated. But, Russia has kept their top-of-the-line fighters far from the battle.
Ukraine’s airforce has nothing but antiquated junk left over from the Soviet era. The F-16 is several generations better.
I don’t like to speculate, but my logic is that Ukraine has been wildly successful on the battlefield using the junk they have, and they should be even better when the F-16s join the fray [next year].
Thanks Russell. I agree. I have no credentials whatsoever either. 🙂
any aircraft is better than no aircraft.
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I think you will see some F-16’s in Ukraine well before the end of the year. Ukraine pilots have likely been training on F16’s now for months and “volunteers” are available for immediate deployment. Same as how the Patriot AA batteries were deployed so fast.
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Logistics support will be more of a problem than pilots, but not a long term problem.
Lucia, we both have had a lot of experience with the ups and downs of blog debates among those of opposing positions. I feared that further discussion as had before would only turn off more of your audience. But, I see there is not a traffic jam now so perhaps we can try.
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Rather than jump into what we and anyone might predict would likely be an unproductive result. I would like to try something new. If we take the novel step of analyzing the traps then perhaps we will have an opportunity to be mutually fulfilled as well as provide something of interest to others.
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I would like to start by agreeing on common ground. Why is that important? Because I think the demonstration of the ability to establish common ground is a critical first step to a productive result.
1) The ability to agree on something establishes the beginning of trust of good faith. The most important aspect of any discussion is the trust in good faith. It is extremely easy to vanish due to false presumptions of the other’s priors. This in turn leads to interpreting responses as disengenuine.
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2) The starting place of common ground demonstrates respect. This is important because the easiest default trap for getting out of a poor reasoned position is to go on the offensive by making statements that discredit the other, thus weakening their point, not by direct reasoning, but by the indirect reasoning that any arguments they make should be suspect. Examples of this are not just name calling, but also the smear of questioning their moral integrity or going to #1, questioning their good faith.
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3) By acknowledging these points we go part way to eliminating the contest of personal credibility. We can mutually agree from the start that the other is sane, intelligent, qualified and not trying to trap the other into embarrassment or general discredit due to fundamental past disagreements (or ongoing ones).
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I saw what I thought was a relevant point on this subject written by a visitor on your blog some months ago. They said part of the divide in viewpoints is that everyone has fundamental priors that they are barely aware of. The level of trust in government establishments versus private is a good example. As one has a more relatable personal experience with one the less likely they would be to think ill of it. For example, if someone works in the oil industry as an executive or engineer they are far less likely to feel oil companies are evil. The same would be true for working in the government (I would hope). This is a corollary to a point you just brought up about ability to think charitably of the hungry child in front of you but hard to relate to millions around the world out of sight.
.
This personalized perception spills into every issue where there is personal experience. For example, when I brought up the controversial story of the CDC whistleblower that was the statistician on their seminal study clearing Merck’s MMR vaccine from suspicion of being related to autism I said I heard it originally because of my brother. Then somebody pointed out that I might be being influenced by the issue being too close to home. To counter that good point I then elaborated he was involved in that field of research, not personally afflicted. But, thinking about it now I realize it was like the hungry child in front of him; it affected him deeply because he saw and knew Rett Syndrome patients (a similar condition to autism).
.
Similarly, you may have very personal experiences that change your priors and perceptions about restrictions on abortion. You may have had a child in front of you. With that I will ask that you acknowledge the points I have made here or amend them as you wish. If you do so I would then be interested to see if we could make a productive conversation on a controversial topic. I would be delighted if we could. And, I ask that we both give up the rights to anything accomplished here and in further discussion for Angech to write lesson chapters on morals or social discourse.
Ron,
I say we start with you answering the 15 questions I asked you in #221741.
.
We cannot have a productive conversation if you complain you are misunderstand but will not answer the simple yes/no questions I asked so that we could explore whether you have been misunderstood. I think you could rather quickly answer yes/no and a list of 15 yes/no answers would hardly over burden the other readers.
.
This is popcorn time. Anyone running a book on whether Ron will answer Lucia’s questions? Lucia’s ability to cut to core of arguments is truly admirable.
Hi Phil,
Long time no see!
.
I’m guessing based on your comment that you don’t share Ron’s “[fear] that further discussion as had before would only turn off more of your audience”, and are hoping to hear his answers.
An old aphorism, stop digging.
Thanks Angech. Good advice. ……….
Really?
I must remind myself “Never give good advice.”
People never want to listen to good advice.
It goes against the grain of what they had already decided to do.
Therefore it was and is purely a comment.
Stop digging.
Lucia – frequent visitor, just forced to prioritize where I spend time in discussions. Interesting discussions to observe but not ones I could make any contribution to anyway.
And yes, Ron’s way of argument is so obscure that I would like clarity.
Phil, have you been following the whole debate from the beginning? Perhaps I was wrong in assuming people were leaving. Maybe they are just eating popcorn and waiting with anticipation.
.
About my way of argument being obscure, I believe trying new ways to solve old brick wall problems. Call me a progressive in that respect. What part is obscure, the condition of first agreeing to find some common ground or the abortion thing?
.
Lucia, I have all the answers composed and waiting on your move.
Trump is attacking Kayleigh McEnany on the Truth social network. McEnany was, in my opinion, one of the bright stars of his administration. Early on she said encouraging things to DeSantis and that incurred Trump’s rage. Trump is a despicable human being. Lock him Up.
Screenshot of his comments on Truth: https://twitter.com/rklier21/status/1663797442075062273?s=20
Ron
Move? I think I’ve been pretty clear. I just want a list of yes/no answers. I don’t want explanations– just yes/no/ maybe. The answer should be no longer than a list.
(For those wondering, the blog was down because Dreamhost did an automatic upgrade of php. I don’t know why that took down the blog, but I do eventually need to upgrade.)
Russel
Among Trump’s bad habits is his tendency to attack people who have been in his administration. He loses good people and it’s one of the reasons he is likely to have difficulty attracting good people if re-elected.
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I’m guessing FoxNews is not going to fire her over some misreported of poll numbers (even assuming Trump is correct there was misreporting.)
Lucia,
“For those wondering, the blog was down because Dreamhost did an automatic upgrade”
Whew! Thank Goodness. I thought I caused it. I blasted Trump in a post and the site crashed. I figured he had his minions take it down.
It probably happened at midnight. But whose time zone?
.
Dreamhost is no longer supporting php 7.4, which is fine. And they sent me a warning note yesterday. I didn’t act…. The blog may go on and of a few times as I test out other php versions. They have 7.4 there for those of use using it. Then 8.0 and 8.1. They auto-upgraded to 8.1.
I have no control over what WordPress requires– and that’s updated. I also need to update over on my tutoring blog- but that will require updating Moodle as well.
I did not see the story yet on Kayleigh McEnany but this would be terrible mistake. She was a gem for him. I am interested to see if she has enough self confidence not to attack back.
.
Lucia:
.
You must know that this is a laughable demand. It allows one side to frame all the questions loaded with their own assumptions, including false assumptions about the person being questioned. Using the common example, how does one answer “Did you stop beating your wife, yes, no or maybe?” If they comply with that demand they are surely convicted.
.
But now that I have pointed that out I have sunk another inch deeper into quicksand because my predicate set for a fair debate was to begin with a mutual show of respect. And this makes it that much more difficult to achieve that.
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For a fair debate, even in writing, there ideally should be an impartial moderator that forces both sides to start by saying something complementary about the other. I have seen this done in recent years in televised debates. I think it might be rooted in the same idea of keeping the debate from devolving. By me asking this I am in fact controlling the debate, which is also a bit unfair (but not as unfair as demanding you answer my questions yes or no.)
Lucia, another point before we start, if we start, is to point out that the abortion debate, like many controversial debates, is broken into two types of arguments on every point, one based on principles and the other based on practical facts. In other words one can choose to be a realist or one can be an idealist. Beware of switching between realism and idealism as it suits for the transaction without at least acknowledging you are doing that. This concept is embodied in a common lawyer’s quote: If you have the law on your side pound the law. If you have the facts on your side pound the facts. If you have neither then pound the table.
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Pounding the law appeals to fairness, equity and justice. Pounding the facts plays to human limitations. Pounding the table usually equates to accusing the system or state actors of being corrupt or of discrediting a witness by impugning their integrity.
Ron,
Lucia is not talking about a debate. She is trying to explore the claim that she has not understood you. The questions are not trick questions, they are questions all of the form ‘Do you think X’ where X is something she (and I) believes you said in an earlier thread.
You can say ‘yep, nope, or maybe’. Or you can continue to refuse to clarify. But that’s all you – you’ve complained that Lucia has misunderstood you, and now you are refusing to clarify what you claim has been misunderstood.
[Edit: I’m also interested in reading your answers]
Ron,
None of my questions are loaded. Metaphorically, answering yes, no or baby will not imply you were eve “beating your wife”. This will simply indicate whether you have been misunderstood.
.
Those interested in verifying the questions are not loaded can use their word search to go back to Comment #221741.
I would take it as a sign of good faith on your part if you just provide yes/no/maybe answers to the 15 questions and leave out your philosophical musings on what constitutes a fair debate or good communication. By posting only the yes/no answers we can can focus on whether you have been misunderstood.
.
Argument or explanation can follow– but only after you have posted your actual answers briefly and clearly.
Ron Graf,
“I did not see the story yet on Kayleigh McEnany but this would be terrible mistake. She was a gem for him.“
I agree. She was always well-prepared and direct in her responses. She was the best press secretary in my memory.
You can see Trump’s brutal attack here, I posted a screenshot from Truth social media:
https://twitter.com/rklier21/status/1663797442075062273?s=20
Mark:
.
I revise my claim because I can’t read her mind that clearly to know if she misunderstood or simply chose not to acknowledge my points. As I pointed out earlier, in order to help a discussion progress the parties should acknowledge each other’s points as they are made even if they disagree with them. Even better is when the other’s entire point is rephrased in ones own words, sending the signal that I heard everything and also allowing the first party to correct any omissions or extraneous additions. In husband and wife terms this is known as “fair fighting.” In blog terms unfortunately it usually just provides and opening for the other to claim they are being misquoted and they can then end their point there with an unrefutably put down.
.
BTW, Mark, whether in blog or in person, for a third party to enter a discussion that is clearly a partisan to join one side is unethical or rude unless one makes a clear attempt at demonstrating impartiality.
Lucia: “None of my questions are loaded.” The level of self-introspection is admirable, but I think I can demonstrate that they are if we get to that point.
Russell, if Trump was right about the numbers before the numbers will now be correct in terms of all the support he is losing for demonstrating such poor judgement. Newsmax and pro-MAGA Twitter have been bunking Fox News but Trump should not be involved in that.
Ron:
Because you are not answering the questions, I am going to add you to the willard filter and limit your answers to 150 words. I am editing the filter now.
Lucia
test my own comment. See if it triggers the willard filter.
All:
The willard plugin is activated. My comments get through. I haven’t tested thoughly. But this used to work. I have tweaked by adding Ron’s email and the three IPs associated with him recently.
I have also edited the word limit to 200 (which is more than I allowed willard); the maxcharacter is 200*6. The paragraph limit is set to 30.
That should be sufficient to allow yes/no/maybe answers in a format I think likely. For example:
1: yes.
2: no.
And so on.
I believe there is also a time out element, but I didn’t edit that.
Ron’s emails and IPs will be “willard” moderated until such time as he answers the questions. I think many can notice I am not engaging his multi-paragraph comments on how how I should converse with him nor the complexity of the debate on abortion.
I think I was already very clear when I requested he answer the 15 questions in a yes/no/maybe format. Engaging the “willard” plugin should make it crystal clear that I want answers to those questions, and that I want them in a yes/no/maybe format.
Ron to Mark
You don’t need to read my mind, just read my words:
Me to Ron:
I interpreted these words of yours as meaning you think you are misunderstood (i.e. ‘misinterpreted’):
Ron to me:
.
You will be “willard moderated” until you answer the 15 yes/no questions.
— Note: the above is 132 words, 715 characters with spaces and 7 paragraphs (though word press might see it as more paragraphs owing to the ‘.’ inserted for spacing.).
Something that long would pass willard moderation of 200 words, 1200 characters and 30 paragraphs.
Lucia,
I think that’s a good call. I appreciate that you moderate with a light hand, and I appreciate even more that you ‘get’ the difference between light and non-existent.
If the Patriot doesn’t work at all, then I suggest the Russians fly their best jets within range. They will find out. No signs of that happening yet.
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There are plenty of videos of Patriots taking out SCUD missiles in the 1990’s (they don’t show the misses). Hitting an incoming ballistic missile in descent phase is harder than hitting a plane. That was 30 years ago. I would even suggest that the US probably even tested the $1B Patriot system and all it’s variants before they were deployed.
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It’s a literal arms race between missile capability and anti-missile capability. Destroying the missile sites, jamming their radar or sensors, flares, chaff, etc. etc. The exact state of this is always a closely held secret.
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As for flying a “naked” jet over top of a Patriot battery, good luck with that. Mostly both sides will not fly jets within range of modern missile batteries.
It is best to think of airframes and missile batteries as weapons platforms. It matters a lot what equipment are connected to these things. The systems are continuously upgraded, but the old stuff like older generation missiles aren’t thrown away. Ukraine is very likely to get the old stuff first unless the US is testing some new capability in the field. The export market for the US is constrained technically and only our BFF’s get the latest stuff, and never things like the F-22 and B-2 until they are basically obsolete at the top level.
.
However the airframe matters too, as does the engine. How high you can fly matters. Your top speed matters, a lot. The range matters, a lot. How much you can carry matters, a lot. How much does maintenance cost? How expensive is it to train a pilot?
Do the avionics support battlefield integration? Can the pilot talk directly to ground forces? Laser designators? Different planes for different roles. Lots of engineering trade-offs made with a crystal ball.
.
My view is that swarms of low cost drones will change the game yet again.
.
The F-16 was pre-stealth (1970’s) and will be more vulnerable to missile attacks. It looks pretty sexy though. That’s the one I would park in my driveway.
Tom,
I agree with every bit of that, including parking it in the driveway. My driveway is a bit too small, but my neighbors might be willing to overlook the inconvenience…
Tom Scharf,
My Patriot missile thoughts… remember I have absolutely no military credentials so my thoughts may be crap.
The Ukrainians have been intercepting more than 95% of the missiles Russia throws at them. This includes the Russian hypersonic “Kinzhal” missile. The Kremlin had boasted that the weapon was unstoppable, even untouchable given its speed and maneuverability.
The Ukrainian anti-air system has a lot of components. Some new some old. The German Flakpanzer Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft gun has received a lot of accolades. Very cool looking, Image: https://twitter.com/rklier21/status/1663956370826067981?s=20
But they also employ simple stuff like Stinger Manpads and even banks of cops with high-powered rifles.
The Patriots are a part of their anti-air system. The Russians fear this system. The Russians specifically targeted the Patriots with an overwhelming onslaught of missiles twice, and it’s still going strong.
I follow Anton Gerashchenko, his bio: “Ukrainian patriot. Advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine.” He wrote yesterday:
“Another morning, and I write another tweet about a massive Russian attack on Ukraine last night.
For Kyiv, it was the 16th attack in May. And it was one of the most challenging for our air defense Heroes, as Russia launched cruise missiles and Shahed drones, combined.
In total, Ukrainian Air Forces destroyed 67 targets last night (37 X-101/X-555 cruise missiles, 29 Shahed drones, 1 reconnaissance drone). Glory!
Russia tries to exhaust our air defense and our people with these attacks. It only makes us more determined to do all we can for Victory. Ukraine will prevail.”
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1663076686735220741?s=20
mark,
I should thank willis for having motivated me to write the “willard moderation” plugin long ago. It’s not written to be convenient. I had to look at the code and manually modify. I’m not quite sure where the setting to limit time between posts is….
But it’s a tool.
Lucia,
I am happy to comply with any reasonable requests. I am trying to get the dialogue to raise up not to nuke it. Willard and I can actually converse to a point once in a while. I am sure he is a great guy if you are only a fan of post modernism and such.
.
I am sorry things broke down between you and Willard. I have not seen him here but I know Joshua lurks regularly. BTW, Willard is ATTP’s moderator. What do you make of that? Was he a wise choice? I think ATTP should moderate his supporters as well as his intellectual opponents. Judith Curry does an amazing job at instilling trust by moderating lightly but cautioning equally on both sides, which is a factor in welcoming robust discussion. Is this too long? I am testing it out.
.
Edit: That worked. I will answer questions one at a time later but wait for your finding some point I have made today, yesterday or in the past that you found positively informed or was useful in some way, preferably my thoughts about “fair fighting.”
Lucia,
Sounds like most of the code I write. LOL. No I’m kidding.
…I’d like to believe I’m kidding… hmm.
The NHC said not to worry about this storm, but it’s starting to turn ugly ….and it’s taking aim at Sarasota. They all seem to take aim at Sarasota. Just because I’m paranoid doesn’t mean they aren’t out to get me. Current radar: https://twitter.com/rklier21/status/1663992648540012544?s=61&t=q3_InP1nXWdPIXqj8656mQ
Ron,
I have no opinion about willard’s position as moderator at ATTP.
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I will not be discussing points you made after I asked you to answer the 15 questions until after you answer the 15 questions. Moreover, I may not be discussing them after you answer either. I am certainly not going into past posts to hunt down points I might have found positively informed.
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You can chose to answer the questions or not. If, owing to moderation, you try to answer the questions in some form that is very obviously neither yes or no, I will reduce the number of words and characters you are allowed. They are only as high as they are to permit you to give 15 yes/no answers in one comment if that’s the way you want to do it. Otherwise, I would reduce you to something like 30 words a post.
Mark,
I have turned off editing because it allows a “workaround” to “willard moderation”. The plugin ‘hooks’ don’t engage when a comment is edited. I need to look at that to not allow people who are willard moderated to edit. Or I need to fiddle with the date/time stamps inside the willard moderation plugin.
Yeah… it’s a hack.
Ron, I believe I have. And with some amazement frankly. I would very much like you clarify 3, 6-9, and 13. I find it hard to reconcile your actual comments with a “no” answer, and your attempts to “clarify” when Lucia sought clarification seem to be mostly “Look, squirrel”.
Lucia,
Nothing wrong with that. Without exception as far as I can recall, everything interesting or innovative I’ve ever done started as a hack. Usually when it’s a ‘good’ or worthwhile hack I go back several times and cleanup or rewrite.
Biden in free fall.
RCP average -14.5
Debt default settlement may steady the ship but unlikely.
Multiple points of weakness adding to a perfect storm.
–
That is the good news.
–
I think we are close to a tipping point in the politics of the nation.
Eighteen months of turmoil.
Nobody happy with the Debt deal means it was a success.
–
Thanks Lucia
You have shown great patience as usual.
Because you are not answering the questions, I am going to add you to the willard filter and limit your answers to 150 words. I am editing the filter now.
Lucia
”
Best thing you have done in awhile. Ron can’t address issues honestly. That alone means he should be restricted. Then there is the whole issue of him being something of an asshole. The weird thing is that when people ask him to focus on specific issues, he goes off on bizarre tangents, unrated to the issue being discussed.
angech (Comment #221797): “Nobody happy with the Debt deal means it was a success.”
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Depends on how you define success. If you mean “close to the best available at this time”, then OK. But we are still headed to fiscal hell in a handbasket, just a bit more slowly. So in that sense, not a success.
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Among Republicans, it seems most are focusing on one way of looking at it and completely ignoring the other.
“Because you are not answering the questions, I am going to add you to the willard filter and limit your answers to 150 words. I am editing the filter now.”
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Wouldn’t it be simpler to just ignore him?
I appreciate Lucia moderating. But what does it matter really; this is her place, not the public square. She’s done what she felt was appropriate with her blog. I don’t see issues with that.
MikeM
Well, perhaps. Obviosusly, the simplest things would be banning.
.
On ignoring: It is difficult to ignore someone who participates in comments here claims I said things I (and others) did not say, who attributes to me (and others) and who presents some arguments that at last sound very pernicious to my ears. I find I need to correct that.
.
Also, it’s pretty easy to “ignore” — or more specifically– not get into long fruitless discussions if someone post are clear, coherent, don’t go off on strange tangents, and don’t suddenly start bringing up Nazi’s or launching into lectures on morality or manners.
.
I can easily respect someone who says something I disagree with, and whose position is coherent. So for example, you have pointed out that some people view abortion as murder. Many of those people find it impossible to accept permitting abortion at all. This is a coherent view. I don’t share their view– but I get it. And I don’t criticize those people for having that view. I still vote for my favored position and can accept they have theirs.
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So: I don’t really feel any need to “question” you on whether you thinks the people who say they think abortion is murder really think it’s murder. I know the vast majority do. (I don’t think you actually said you think it’s murder. Perhaps you do; perhaps you don’t. I can accept people hold that position, so if you do, you do.)
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But I’m afraid I can’t ignore certain other types of statements or arguments. When I see them, it’s just hard to not ask, or respond. I prefer to not ban people and give them a chance to clarify. But Ron has been pretty resistant to clarifying. (I know he will deny this. But as Phil S described it, his “clarifications” amount to “Look, squirrel”.)
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So I prefer to give Ron an opportunity to clarify. At this point I want to constrain the answers to avoid the whole “Look squirrel” aspect of many of his answers.
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I think requiring “yes, no, maybe” is the appropriate step. I wish he was more willing to accept answering questions as “common ground” or to show respect for others by answering direct questions. But it seems I need to use the plug in. Hopefully it works as I hoped.
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Sadly, I think I need to turn off editing for a while. (I’ll look at tweaking further tomorrow.)
.
I think it is entirely reasonable to insist Ron answer the yes/no/maybe questions. Your blog, your rules.
Ron – just answer the questions.
RickA:
.
Thanks Rick for giving your vote. I am interested for everyone who dares to have the same rules applied to them add to your vote. I’m just curious at how high the number gets in 2023 America.
“to have the same rules applied” Hmm What rule? Answering clarificaiton question when requested? Answering the questions that Lucia posed to you, then sure!
[Not sure if my war posts are appropriate right now?] …but here goes.
The only stuff I’m seeing that is not getting much attention in the Western media is a rash of attacks on oil facilities inside Russia. There seems to be a concerted effort by the Ukrainians in the past week or so to destroy Russia’s fuel supplies. Some of these attacks are 200 miles behind the front lines. Some sample quotes:
“There were explosions overnight in the Russian city of Tuapse in Krasnodar Krai, followed by a fire at a Rosneft oil refinery.”
“After four drones attacked the Ilsky oil refinery on Wednesday in the Krasnodar region, causing a fire to spark as the result of the almost hour-long attack, it was hit again Friday and suffered another explosion and fire.”
“A fire broke out on February 8 at an oil refinery in Russia’s southern Rostov region near the border with Ukraine, state media reported.”
“Two drones damaged an administration building of an oil pipeline in Russia’s western Pskov region, the regional governor said Saturday.”
This is neat, following on the oil fires in Russia post: I used Google Maps to locate the Afipsky oil refinery and co-located it on the NASA FIRMS fire data satellite map. Location Lat 44.88555 Lon 38.82214. Screenshots of the two maps:
https://twitter.com/rklier21/status/1664149597864833024?s=20
I think I did this right but I would welcome someone more familiar with this GIS stuff to verify my findings:
Location of the fire on NASA FIRMS Fire maps
https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#d:2023-05-31..2023-06-01,2023-05-31;@38.8,44.9,14z
Location of the refinery on Google Maps:
https://www.google.com/search?tbs=lf:1,lf_ui:1&tbm=lcl&sxsrf=APwXEdf7u0uzyV8QXTPGhcYHS1ZaR6TZ-A:1685597503694&q=Afipsky+refinery&rflfq=1&num=10&ved=2ahUKEwjkpcSDrKH_AhVMZzABHS7XBQsQtgN6BAgREAc#rlfi=hd:;si:;mv:[[44.89125434945782,38.85423932661135],[44.87839232765663,38.82376943220217]]
News story:
Drones Target Southern Russia Oil Refineries
Governor Venyamin Kondratyev wrote on Telegram that there were no casualties and the blaze at the Afipsky oil refinery had been put out after burning for a few hours.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/05/31/drones-target-southern-russia-oil-refineries-a81338
Phil Scadden,
I bet Ron will never provide yes/no/maybe answers to Lucia’s questions. That is because he refuses to ever be pinned down on his true positions. Goes like this, Ron: Maybe abortion should be restricted to provide newborns for childless couples.” Response: “You think a woman should be forced to bear a child for someone else to adopt?!?!” Ron: “I didn’t say that; you misunderstood me.” Followed by a long winded, unrelated rant.
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He does it constantly. I think because he doesn’t want to actually defend his (outrageous) positions, and instead throws a ton of distracting comments that include even more outrageous positions…. which he later denies he supports. Waste of time.
.
BTW, I have continued to follow the covid numbers in New Zealand and Australia. Looks like the total number of cases will be pretty high, but deaths in both countries per million population will end up at only about 20% of the USA. The vaccines appear to have saved a lot of lives by reducing the frequency of severe illness.
.
The cumulative case numbers look to me to be a reasonable predictor of current cases: more total cases in the past, fewer cases now. Which seems consistent with actual illness providing stronger protection than the vaccines alone.
Russell Klier (Comment #221812): “[Not sure if my war posts are appropriate right now?]”
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Your posts are way better than most posts here lately.
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“… not getting much attention in the Western media is a rash of attacks on oil facilities inside Russia. There seems to be a concerted effort by the Ukrainians …”.
.
Thanks for pointing to things that a being largely ignored.
A quibble: From what I have seen, it seems that the attacks are by dissident/rebel Russian groups, not by Ukrainians. Those groups are likely not pro-Ukraine (more likely, anti-Putin) but the Ukrainians are helping them on the grounds of “the enemy of my enemy”.
Russel,
Totally welcome.
Mike M,
I do think the emergence of militant anti-Putin Russians is very interesting.
Mike M. (Comment #221815)
“A quibble: From what I have seen, it seems that the attacks are by dissident/rebel Russian groups, not by Ukrainians. “
Wouldn’t that be grand? Just a little rebellion inside Russia would go a long way in reallocation of Moskow’s priorities. Those anti-Putin Russians who attacked near Belgorod drew a ton of Russian army units away from the battle to protect the border.
Russel
I imagine that more traditional news outlets can’t confirm whether the units really are or are not anti-Putin Russians. Russia denies it– but that means relatively little.
It’s the inquisition! Ha ha. A room with thumb screws awaits. Lucia can run this place as she wishes, she does all the work. It’s completely voluntary.
This may be big. For the first time…ever …. Moldova is part of the story. I counted five Nato spy planes in and over Moldova. 2-USAF, RAF, NATO, and AAE (French). Here is a screenshot of four of them: https://twitter.com/rklier21/status/1664283207649619970?s=61&t=q3_InP1nXWdPIXqj8656mQ
Also, a few hours ago, there was an odd entreaty from Maia Sandu, President of the Republic of Moldova to Zelenskyy and Macron, “We are stronger together” :
https://twitter.com/sandumaiamd/status/1664254367883575296?s=61&t=q3_InP1nXWdPIXqj8656mQ
Moldova has been staying out of the fray. There is a breakaway Russian enclave in Moldova, Transnistria, on the border with Ukrainian.
Stay tuned.
More from Moldova, Another Sandu message to Zelenskyy 8 hours ago:
“Dear President @ZelenskyyUa, we admire Ukrainians for showing incredible strength in defending homeland & intl law.
We’re grateful for your heroic defence & we stand in solidarity w/ you & your efforts to bring back peace. You have a reliable partner in Moldova that you can count on.”
https://twitter.com/sandumaiamd/status/1664170683880861699?s=20
Moldova is hosting an EU summit in an effort to gain membership:
“Moldova este Europa, Europa este Moldova.
Moldova is Europe, Europe is Moldova.”
https://twitter.com/sandumaiamd/status/1664226212594458627?s=20
Sorry to be scatterbrained about this, but things are happening fast… 30 minutes ago, Maia Sandu made it official, they are in it, BOOM: “Moldova is ready to provide its territory to the Armed Forces of Ukraine for conducting military operations.
Moldovan President Maia Sandu said that, if necessary, the republic is ready to provide its territory as assistance to the Ukrainian army.”
https://twitter.com/Spriter99880/status/1664291546391367680?s=20
Yep. One of the dance teachers at “former dance studio” is from Moldova.
Of course, one avoids discussing all this at dance competitions. The place is crawling with Russians and Ukrainians. Some Ukraininans “show their colors”. NO Russians show their colors.
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This doesn’t mean the all Russians are against Putin-Russia. But let’s just say, neither the massive number of Ukrainian ex-Pats nor most of the other former soviet block exPats have any sympathy with pro-Putin views. And, of course, the Russians who are hear are exPat Russians. So many were not particularly proPutin in the first place. So, expressing pro-Putin views is likely to put one in an uncomfortable spot.
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Other than the occasional Ukrainian wearing blue and yellow, there isn’t a lot of discussion. But I think everyone is thining about it.
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And in 5 minutes, I must leave to go have a dance lesson for my naturalized American formerly Ukrainian citizen dance teacher. (He does not wear a blue/yellow patch. He is very pro-Ukraine. We don’t discuss it. But every day I’m glad to not-hear of his father’s death. His father returned to Ukraine at the start of the war.)
The plot thickens:
“The breakaway Moldovan region of Transnistria has probably the largest weapons depots in eastern Europe.”
“there are still around 20,000 tons of ammunition for artillery and infantry as well as other military equipment stored there.”
“huge weapons depot is located in Cobasna under the control of Transnistrian forces and Russian peacekeeping troops”
The arms depot is located on the Transnistria border with Ukraine.
https://www.dw.com/en/transnistrias-explosive-inheritance-from-the-soviet-era/a-18886862
My source on the anti-Putin militias:
https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/05/25/who-are-the-militias-raiding-russias-belgorod-region
One of the better analyses of the problems Ukraine faces in attacking Russian defenses in their projected coming offensive.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v4tzu9FzuxY
Hopefully the Supreme Court will kill the student loan forgiveness give away, but both the Senate and the House have now passed a bill to kill it through the legislative process.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/01/politics/student-loan-forgiveness-biden-senate-vote/index.html
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Biden expected to veto it, but he will be hard pressed to keep that initiative alive at this point. Manchin, Tester, Sinema joined Republicans in the Senate.
That low pressure system in the Gulf now has a 70 % chance of becoming a tropical storm. It is currently in the Northwestern Gulf of Mexico. The spaghetti has is wandering South toward Cuba then Northeast toward Miami. GFS plot from 12Z today:
https://twitter.com/rklier21/status/1664363458207309829?s=61&t=q3_InP1nXWdPIXqj8656mQ
Steve – I think paxlovid availability is also helping keep deaths down.
NHC says the tropical storm will likely be nothing, dropping to a tropical depression within a couple of days, and never reach the USA: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/210630.shtml?cone#contents
Our lakes/ponds are at pretty low levels around here, so rain away.
Phil Scadden,
You may be right. I didn’t know Paxlovid was used in NZ.
The pre-vaccine death rate in NZ and Australia (albeit a small sample) was about 3% of confirmed cases. Currently the death rate is about 0.18% of confirmed cases. The USA appears to have a somewhat higher death rate, probably because we have a higher % of elderly people who have refused vaccination.
Part of it is also that omicron is less severe.
Tom Scharf,
The east coast of Florida had a wetter winter than usual, and already lots of summer-like rainfall… the lakes are higher for this time of year than I can remember in the last 25. A zero brush fires… also unusual.
Extreme weather! Wetter wets and dryer dries!!!! Climate apocalypse!!!!!!!!!! Never mind that nobody tracks records for consecutive years of normal weather.
RK
“Moldova has been staying out of the fray. There is a breakaway Russian enclave in Moldova, Transnistria, on the border with Ukrainian.
Stay tuned.
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Surely you mean Transylvania??
(Rocky Horror fan)
Steve F
Yes there seems to be a resurgence of Covid here with deaths but as you say a lot lower percentage of cases.
Friends, children and grandchildren coming down.
A few nursing home deaths as always.
Cold viruses do continually mutate, why no successful attempt at vaccines in the past.
Two thought bubbles.
We are still here so past severe mutations, which should have occurred, have never wiped us out.
Implication is that those of us who develop some immunity eventually get to live with the ability for it to be just a cold?
Tom Scharf,
Odd how global warming/climate change/climate disruption is able to cause both very dry and very wet conditions within 200 miles or less. One of the terrifying mysteries of global warming.
angech,
Let’s do the time warp again
https://twitter.com/rklier21/status/1664407533694361603?s=61&t=ZyQdkbznbK5mZr6llgvE8g
test– see if I can edit
[edit]Editing is back. I tweaked the editing plugin the people in the “willard plugin” shouldn’t be able to edit. This is to prevent a work around the moderating features of those being “willard” moderated.
Willard,
Thanks for (inadvertently) testing the changes to my moderation plugin. You’ll notice it adds the number of words etc. That was supposed to be in green… but alas, things that happen downstream of the plugin stripped the green out. (I’m not quite sure why your comment is at the top of the thread, but I have a suspicion. That issue might be fixed.)