One more small thing to be happy for this new year: Paul Krugman, a constant loud voice for idiotic, destructive policies, retired from the New York Times. Now if another 50 did the same, and were replaced by realists, the NYT could actually become readable again.
Happy New Year to all.
Krugman became a bit too predictable in his later years, another writer who was a candidate for most likely to be an AI algorithm.
His “the economy will never recover” statement after 2016 will haunt him. It was a stark example of how the alleged expert academic class was tainted by politics.
So far the highlight of the college bowl games has been the Pop-Tart bowl where the official mascot is lowered into a toaster after the game and then eaten by the winning team.
Bud Light needs to hire their marketing department.
“the economy will never recover”
That is only the best remembered of his endless, politically motivated, idiotic analysis: gigantic green boondoggles were perfectly OK and would never lead to inflation, Bidens’ border policies were no problem at all, confiscatory taxes would be good for economic growth, etc, etc, etc.
The guy was and is an utter buffoon.
ESPNU is broadcasting the game in Skycast:
It’s a non-stop view from the skycam, behind the offense. No broadcast commentary, no video vignettes, etc. You get the full ambient noise from the stadium, along with in-house public address.
The Ukrainians recently mounted an assault on Russian ground troops using ground attack drones. Finally got a close look at the vehicle…. Looks like a tracked golf cart with a Ma Deuce [M2 Browning .50 caliber machine gun] on board.
Video: https://x.com/DakdaR22/status/1874261576993079298
The Texas / Ariz. State game finally gives the CFP life!
Well this is exciting
Great game. A lot of drama.
ESPN SkyCast for the Rose Bowl is on ESPNews
Arizona State outgained Texas 510 to 375 yards. Texas made some bad decisions after having a big lead and their vaunted defense was a sieve in the second half.
Atrocious FBI DEI hire “assistant special agent in charge” Alethia Duncan stated that the terror attack in New Orleans was not being considered a terrorist attack …. long before the facts were in.
Something about an FBI agent with a nose piercing doesn’t sit right with me.
Kenneth,
Texas started playing to not lose. They advanced, but it shouldn’t have been that hard.
Ohio State looks like it is on a mission. 34-0 in 1st half against #1 team. Yikes.
Arizona State had too many running plays that ended up gaining a lot of yards and burned a lot of time and resulted in too few points. The endless shots of the ASU running back became quite annoying. Even if I weren’t a Texas fan, I would have wanted ASU to lose.
“Texas started playing to not lose. They advanced, but it shouldn’t have been that hard.”
Exactly my thoughts. That strategy often loses. I give Arizona State lots of credit though in taking advantage. They not only made the Texas defense look weak in the second half they also defended well against Texas running and passing by racking up some timely yardage loses.
DeWitt Payne
January 2, 2025 at 11:27 am
DeWitt, that running back, Cam Skattebo, had one heck of a game. At one time he had outgained the entire Texas offense.
He did have his helmet off quite often on the sendlines for better camera shots.
Paul Krugman is not an exception to the thinking of mainstream Keyensian economists. He is more obviously partisan which makes his predictions and explantions of economic events appear unreal to those with even low levels of economics understanding.
I read a number of his criticisms of Austrian economics where he would misrepresent their explanations and ignore the import of their economic reasoning.
Skattebo carried Ariz State on his back and almost won the game. Very impressive performance. He was 5th in Heisman voting.
Texas can’t seem to play an entire game, they fall asleep for 2 quarters. That won’t work against Ohio State.
GA lost their QB but sometimes that makes the other players step up. Should be interesting. I never root for ND, ha ha.
DeWitt Payne, Your comment:
“ The endless shots of the ASU running back became quite annoying.”
I usually prefer one of the alternate broadcasts. This afternoon there are at least three choices:
“The Georgia at Notre Dame game will be available to watch live on ESPN beginning at 4:00pm ET.
ESPN will also present a Command Center broadcast of the Georgia-Notre Dame game on ESPNU and a SkyCast of the game on ESPN3.”
Many premium cable networks have all three ESPN channels.
I usually have at least two screens streaming. I will have the sound turned on only for the SkyCast because it only plays the in-stadium sounds…..Bands, Cheers, Crowds..it’s like being there.
It would appear all the performative Gaza protestors found something more interesting to do this semester. Shots and bong hits I suspect.
Who knew! I like the wisdom of an 80 year old radical feminist.
Germaine Greer is someone I thought I despised, but she has been making a lot of sense lately:
“Female is real and it’s sex and femininity is unreal and it’s gender, and it’s a role you play.”
This trans BS annoys feminists too. https://x.com/AgingWhiteGay/status/1634464766096965634
The feminists are quite enamored with their superior womanhood so they also get annoyed when it gets defined out of existence.
Kenneth,
As I said, a lot of yards but not enough points. ASU was still calling mostly running plays well into the fourth quarter. It’s one thing to keep it on the ground when you’re ahead, but not so much when you’re 16 points behind. The Texas kicker muffed a field goal he should have made to allow the overtime. ASU’s clock mismanagement gave Texas enough time to get into scoring position. So the ASU defense wasn’t all that great in the second half either. And it was an interception by the Texas defense that ended the game.
IMO, so-called prevent defenses combined with a conservative offense often prevent winning.
You also get fired when you throw on 3 consecutive downs when you should be running out the clock, or you leave single coverage on the other team’s best receiver in the final two minutes.
If you have enough time then it makes sense to run or short pass your way down the field against a prevent defense. It makes that possession super critical and 4th down territory all the way down the field though. The most successful offenses are balanced and “take what the defense gives them”.
Some teams can impose their will against lesser teams in college but once you get to the big games (and the NFL) then play calling and game strategy become important.
The NFL went through the west coast offense but teams learned to defend it, prevent defense was defeated so they mostly run a mini-prevent for the most part. Two deep safeties etc.
Arizona State went with a full on blitz at the end of the regular time when Texas had 4th and long. As they say, live by the blitz, die by the blitz. I knew once that blitz was successfully picked up that they had a big problem.
I’ve been watching all three ESPN broadcasts and I like the SkyCast on ESPNEWS best. If you run two screens, the SkyCast is on a 2-3 second delay, so you can watch each play from two perspectives, sidelines and behind the quarterback.
SkyCast is broken
Kenneth Fritsch,
“Paul Krugman is not an exception”
Only to the extent he is exceptionally stupid and politically motivated. Nothing that has transpired over the past 6 years years is remotely difficult to understand. As Freidman said “inflation is always and everywhere a purely monetary phenomenon”.
Krugman is so blinded by his lefty politics that he can’t see even the most obvious: you dump trillions of ‘out-of-air’ created dollars into the US economy, and there will be inflation, full stop. Of course, the early impact is in the financial markets… which generate profits for investors, followed by ever rising prices across the entire economy… punishing everyone who is not an investor with inflated consumable prices.
The guy is unbelievably dishonest or unbelievably stupid. I would go with unbelievably dishonest over unbelievably stupid, since he clearly doesn’t give a shit about the impact of bad economic policy on those least able to deal with inflation.
None of it reflects well on Krugman. Hell, nothing reflects well on him.
I normally do not make sporting predictions, but I see Ohio State and Penn State playing for the national championship – unless I am under estimating Texas and Notre Dame defenses.
We may be getting some AI help in 15 day weather predictions. In early 2025, Google is entering the scramble with GenCast. Company hype:
“We introduce GenCast, a ML-based generative model for ensemble weather forecasting, trained from reanalysis data. It forecasts ensembles of trajectories for hundreds of weather variables, up to 15 days at 1 degree resolution globally, using under TC secs per ensemble member. We show that GenCast is more skilful than ENS, a top operational ensemble forecast, for TC% of TC verification targets, while maintaining good calibration and physically consistent power spectra.”
Nature published a study that supports this hype:
‘It has greater skill than ENS on 97.2% of 1,320 targets we evaluated and better predicts extreme weather, tropical cyclone tracks and wind power production. This work helps open the next chapter in operational weather forecasting, in which crucial weather-dependent decisions are made more accurately and efficiently.”
If you are interested in the maths: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08252-9
For those of us who aren’t math and physics gurus, the Verge has an analysis of GenCast in everyday English:
“GenCast is a machine learning weather prediction model trained on weather data from 1979 to 2018. The model learns to recognize patterns in the four decades of historical data and uses that to make predictions about what might happen in the future. That’s very different from how traditional models like ENS work, which still rely on supercomputers to solve complex equations in order to simulate the physics of the atmosphere. Both GenCast and ENS produce ensemble forecasts, which offer a range of possible scenarios.”
And:
“When it comes to predicting the path of a tropical cyclone, for example, GenCast was able to give an additional 12 hours of advance warning on average. GenCast was generally better at predicting cyclone tracks, extreme weather, and wind power production up to 15 days in advance.”
And:
“Speed is an advantage for GenCast. It can produce one 15-day forecast in just eight minutes using a single Google Cloud TPU v5. Physics-based models like ENS might need several hours to do the same thing. GenCast bypasses all the equations ENS has to solve, which is why it takes less time and computational power to produce a forecast. Computationally, it’s orders of magnitude more expensive to run traditional forecasts compared to a model like Gencast,” https://www.theverge.com/2024/12/7/24314064/ai-weather-forecast-model-google-deepmind-gencast
I wasted nights for the two years after my divorce trying to discover leading indicators (predicters) for price rise in equities on the NYSE. This, believe it or not an an Osborne 1 with a 8 inch floppy drive containing 5 years of historic data on closing prices given me by a friend from Merrill Lynch. I tried all sorts of algorithms looking at what happened in the two weeks preceding a significant rise. I got nowhere, which is good because if I had gotten somewhere, I’d have probably been fooling myself.
I wonder if AI would be better at this and maybe better than the work in the ’80s and ’80s by the MIT physics grads who went into financial institutions instead of seeling honest work.
Accuracy of hindcasts miraculously tend to be better than accuracy of predicting future events. We shall see. It is easy to overfit your model to historic events when chasing accuracy.
There are ways to do this comparative analysis correctly but physics based predictors should be better for physics based phenomenon, in theory. This is especially true when unique circumstances crop up that aren’t in the training set.
John, datamining historical data can always find “winning” strategies when the model is sufficiently overfit and the need for Bonferroni corrections are ignored. Unfortunately the predictive power of those strategies is close to zero.
Technical analysis of the stock market kind of works, AFAICT it just doesn’t work any better than other methods. A simple model of “invest the day after the stock market rises” will probably do fine in a market that is rising.
The market is constantly reacting to unique circumstances and the short term is driven as much by human emotion and the related speculation.
I’m sure there are plenty of people applying AI to the market now, they try everything. You can also apply AI to coin tosses and it won’t help much. I imagine if you feed an AI model all the previous days financial and world news you might get a short term trading edge but I don’t really see an AI model mystically telling you to buy bitcoin 10 years ago or Netflix stock when they were shipping DVD’s.
Physics based models can be much more readily tested with historical and empirical data than those models arising out of soft sciences.
This difference was not completely recognized by scientists selecting temperature proxies for estimating historical temperatures. Even cross-validation and out- of-sample testing can be easily corrupted and abused.
All 4 top seeds lost. I wouldn’t really call all of the losing teams favorites because of the screwy seeding in place. Let’s hope for some more competitive games going forward.
I think AI should be better at this. It seems to me that the biggest problem is that the reason for trends is too chaotic for pattern matching to spot real trends. Things like the time of year, the weather, world events, company performance, current trends, government spending, super bowl wins, investment corp algorithms etc could all impact share price trends.
I think only by synthesizing many models of human behavior, and vast amounts of information, could you begin to make predictions which actually work.
We know we are nearing the singularity when all the AI stock trading models tell you to invest in AI.
GenCast was trained on data from 1979-2018. It was tested on events from 2019. So it looks like an honest test of predictive skill.
Tom,
An amazing accomplishment for SpaceX. More importantly, only one failure (among orbital launches).
An AI algorithm that takes out of it the human fraility in testing to peek at data without Bonferroni accounting and to correctly use out-of-sample data for validation would be a non human improvement.
Dealing with data that has the effects of human actions on it presents other difficulties as noted by Tom. It is not static but rather dynamic in nature. Some a prior reasoning concerning human actions is also helpful since it might even show the futility in model attempts such as seen with economic models that make unreal assumptions about human behavior.
A good example of an unrealistic investing model was the “Dogs of the DOW” and its many variations which used historical data and with no apparent logical basis.
An approach to investing suggested by a friend who had enriched himself this way was to discover “tide-machines.”
These are equities whose price rises and falls over some more or less regular period usually more than four months. Buy lower, sell higher, don’t be piggy. If there was a problem with this, it seemed to work better with equities with lower market valuations such that if you put much at risk your interest might affect the proceedings.
We did inadvertantly find ouorselves with such an investment, purchased for other reasons. There was a significant investor who apparently drove the ebb and flow for some purpose of his own, maybe to harvest the folks who bought on rises.
It was amazing, for years it would move between $4 and $9 (right order of magnitude but not real numbers)
I would think it easy to find stocks which have behaved thus in the past, but it would be prudent to come to underdstand their businesses lest you put money in something which is about to drop dead.
For the record I’m a buy and hold guy with mostly index funds. I just don’t find investing that interesting or fun for whatever reason.
Roger Pielke Jr had a suggestion for climate related research whereby reasearchers would register upfront their work and intended data sources so as to avoid cherry picking data. I did have a link to the details but could not quickly find it. I think their data search would have to have a stated criteria for what data to use.
This is what I have been suggesting over the years for selecting and using temperature proxies.
Trump appears to have twisted arms in getting two Republicans in the House to switch their initial votes to supporting Mike Johnson for speaker.
The skids are now greased for a reconciliation package that ends much of Biden’s crazy spending. But losses of seats by Trump appointees will complicate things. New York will be in no hurry for a special election to replace Stefanik, so Johnson will have one less vote for several months at least.
I am puzzled by Florida taking so long for the special elections. April 1, I think.
The Trump effect:
“NEW: Greenland Prime Minister Múte Egede calls for independence from Denmark as Donald Trump ramps up his calls for acquiring the territory.
“It is now time to take the next step for our country,” Egede said.
“Like other countries in the world, we must work to remove the obstacles to cooperation, which we can describe as the shackles of the colonial era, and move on.”
“Our cooperation with other countries, and our trade relations, cannot continue to take place solely through Denmark.” https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1875337006143729668
Mike, your comment:
“I am puzzled by Florida taking so long for the special elections. April 1, I think.”
DeSantis is planning on appointing Rubio’s replacement in the Senate. I woulnd’t be surprised if it were DeSantis.
Russell,
I don’t see what the Senate appointment has to do with the special elections for the House.
DeSantis can not appoint himself to the Senate. What he could do is appoint a placeholder who won’t run for reelection and then run for the open seat in 2026.
Mike M.
DeSantis could always resign with his successor appointing him to the Senate.
Musk details the upgrades for the next Starship launch:
“Posting technical upgrades to Starship, as I think a lot of people enjoy understanding how the technology is evolving from one flight to the next” https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1875331162400551044
With the four “top” teams eliminated from the playoffs in the first game they played, maybe the organizers will rethink their rankings scheme. Sticking to something more like the coaches poll rankings might produce better playoff games. The selections based on league champions doesn’t necessarily reflect relative team strength. Oregon was not a plausible #1, they squeaked by two or three better teams during the season (like Ohio State) to remain undefeated, but they also squeaked by in games against very weak opponents…. games that should never have been close.
There will always be upsets, of course, but 4 out of 4? That just indicates the rankings are wrong.
I’d just take the top 16 teams from the coaches rankings and play four rounds.
From Scott Adam’s… Amazon knowingly sells cheap China knockoffs and makes it difficult to fix it.
“ The Amazon counterfeit product scandal is way worse than I thought. It’s massive. I wouldn’t hold the stock until it gets sorted out.
100% of the Dilbert calendars on Amazon are fake. I don’t sell the calendar on Amazon. And Amazon has an (intentionally) broken system for reporting the fakes. The fakes come faster than the reporting system.
I’m hearing incredible stories of Amazon abusing American small business owners by essentially being accomplices in stealing their work and giving it to China. The system is so robust that ANY successful American product China can copy gets knocked off. “ https://x.com/scottadamssays/status/1875153196542480582?s=61&t=7w4bCW3a8ve2DqoeniQatQ
john ferguson: “DeSantis could always resign with his successor appointing him to the Senate.”
Yes, but why would he want to do that? It would obviously be perceived as slimy by the public. And it is not at all clear that DeSantis even wants to be in the Senate. I am pretty sure that he likes being governor. It would be one thing if he were a peacock like Lindsey Graham. But DeSantis seems to like being in charge and making decisions. He is a natural executive, not a legislator.
I am guessing that when his term is up he will launch a full time presidential campaign
SteveF: “The selections based on league champions doesn’t necessarily reflect relative team strength.”
Of course not. I think the idea is that a conference championship should mean something. It used to be that if you weren’t the best team in your league then you weren’t the best team in the nation.
If it were up to me, there would be three power conferences, each with two divisions. The winners of those championship games would take three of the four playoff spots. Then the fourth spot would go to the winner of a play-in game between the best two non-power conference teams. It would be better for the “student”-athletes and it would be better for the game, even if it generates less TV revenue.
Note that with the above scheme, not all the top programs would choose to be in a power conference.
SpaceX:
“Hardware upgrades to the launch and catch tower will increase reliability for booster catch, including protections to the sensors on the tower chopsticks that were damaged at launch and resulted in the booster offshore divert on Starship’s previous flight test.”
So that’s why the catch was aborted. The sensors got cooked.
“The returning booster will slow down from supersonic speeds, resulting in audible sonic booms in the area around the landing zone. Generally, the only impact to those in the surrounding area of a sonic boom is the brief thunder-like noise with variables like weather and distance from the return site determining the magnitude experienced by observers.”
The Musk haters (and there are many, notably at the WSJ) are trying to slow down Starship by environmental concerns of the sonic booms. Everything looks like a nail to environmental lawyers. We got sonic booms from the shuttle landings 50 miles away in Melbourne. https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/24/science/spacex-starship-sonic-boom/index.html
“coaches poll rankings”
The problem with this is that it tends to be a popularity poll with the usual suspects always being ranked higher than their peers with the same number of losses. They are effectively given an extra “legacy win” every year and that is very tiring to second tier teams.
They tried computer ranking during the BCS era and that was also controversial. It’s probably better than committees and coaches though. Strength of schedule, strength of opponents schedule, good wins, bad losses, etc.
The reality is also that injuries matter a lot (ask GA) and teams are different at the start and end of the season.
The good thing about a 12 team playoff is that the best teams are never left out now.
Beware buying cheap Chinese stuff from 3rd party suppliers on Amazon. Amazon does not do enough to police this stuff.
“I think the idea is that a conference championship should mean something.”
That’s part of it, the other part is conference title games shouldn’t be beneficial to teams who don’t even get to a title game.
Case in point was Ohio State a few years back not even making it to the conference title game and then other teams invariably went to their conference title games and lost.
All the esteemed “football scholars” then thought OSU should go to the BCS even though they they didn’t even make it to the conference title game. Those losing teams may have gone to the BCS if they would have never played in their title games. Chaos.
I think the playoff was expanded in part just to deal with this problem.
The college football payoffs were expanded for one reason: Money.
President Joe Biden will move Monday to block all future oil and gas drilling across more than 625 million acres of federal waters — equivalent to nearly a quarter of the total land area of the United States, according to two people briefed on the decision who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the announcement is not yet public.
…
Biden plans to invoke the 1953 Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act, which gives the president broad powers to withdraw federal waters from future leasing. A federal judge ruled in 2019 that such withdrawals cannot be undone without an act of Congress.
Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah), the new chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, suggested that he would seek to overturn the decision using the Congressional Review Act, which allows lawmakers to nullify an executive action within 60 days of enactment with a simple majority vote.
It seems that Biden is trying to ensure that his legacy as the worst President ever will never be challenged.
In other news, it seems the corrupt judge in NYC wants to continue his public, political, destruction derby, of the justice system by announcing sentencing on Jan 10th.
The end of season finale approaches! Will it be the end of the show or will it be a cliffhanger? Sentencing delayed! Find out next time…
The good thing for Trump about getting sentenced is that he will then be able to appeal. The conviction should not be able to withstand and appeal, but New York courts …
Without sentencing, the case would be in limbo until Trump leaves office.
The judge already announced there will be no jail time or probation.
Tom Scharf,
“The judge already announced there will be no jail time or probation.”
Well then, at least the judge will be able to say that he hates Trump. What an asshole!
The idiocy of TDS is essentially unlimited. That judge should be in prison, not in judicial robes.
As the saying goes…
“It’s Great….To Be… a Florida Gator.”
I knew we would have to pay for the electric infrastructure that had to be replaced after three hurricanes this year. I just didn’t know how much.
I got my email notice from Florida Power and Light [FPL] today:
“Hurricanes and severe weather are part of living in Florida. When a hurricane strikes, FPL works safely and as quickly as possible to restore power to our customers, sometimes bringing in thousands of additional lineworkers from other states to help. Such emergency restoration costs are not reflected in your bill until after a storm. The Florida Public Service Commission (PSC) has approved FPL’s request for a temporary charge to cover costs from 2024 Hurricanes Debby, Helene and Milton.”
“The typical 1,000 kwh bill will temporarily go up by 15 cents per month.”
God, I love this state.
Fun (and possibly even true) stat of the day:
11% of Americans believe that Hillary Clinton is honest and trustworthy.
14% of Americans believe in bigfoot.
Tampa is also getting a “temporary” $30 / month power bill hike.
Tom,
Ouch! I assume you have Tampa Electric. $30.00/mo vs $0.15/mo. Do you have any idea why the difference. In addition to the eye wall of Milton, Sarasota got hit with extensive flooding from Helene. I think we got hit worse by all three storms.
John, I think has Duke Energy, I wander how they did.
Also, FPL was clobbered by that tornado swarm, that came with Milton, in South and East Florida, which should have also brought the restoration costs up for us relative to Tampa.
Mike M. I wonder if the 11% is a subset of that 14%.
We have Duke Power. I guess the Duke increase is $21 AFAICT.
FPL says a $12/month increase: https://www.fpl.com/rates.html
“The Florida Public Service Commission (PSC) has approved FPL’s request for a temporary charge to cover costs from 2024 Hurricanes Debby, Helene and Milton. This charge also replenishes funds used after Hurricane Idalia in 2023. The charge adds $12.02 to a typical 1,000-kWh residential bill from January to December this year.”
The $0.15 charge is for some solar thing. Their statement is a bit misleading unless you read closely.
I spent about as much for 5 days worth of gasoline for running a 6.5 KW generator as the surcharges for hurricane damages will total.
The natural gas FPL buys to make most of its electricity is remarkably cheap and their combined cycle generation plants (gas turbine/steam) remarkably efficient (>60% thermal efficiency). The industrial natural gas price in Florida is about $6 per million BTU (FP&L no doubt pays less!), while retail gasoline is about $26 per million BTU.
BTW, gasoline powered generators top out at ~23% thermal efficiency at full rated load. Under typical use conditions…. averaging 50% of full load, their thermal efficiency drops to about 14%.
About 8 kW per gallon of gas for small generators, but loading matters as you say.
I don’t think I will buy another vehicle that doesn’t have at least an 1800W inverter built into it.
It is kind of silly at this point to have to buy separate gas generators and sit them right next to your car which is a rolling generator. They are quieter, hold more fuel, and could be just as efficient with some effort. They run ~4 kW / gallon but likely a large variance here.
This is especially true for EV’s. A long range Model 3 has a 75 kWh battery. This could run appliances (not HVAC) for a long time.
Tom Scharf,
Car engines aren’t designed to run as electric generators. At idle, the alternator isn’t capable of producing much power, I think. If you did manage to increase the idle rpm’s, the efficiency would suffer from having way too much engine. You would probably also have a problem with cooling as the radiator fan probably isn’t going to move enough air. When on a chassis dyno, there’s always a big fan in front of the car.
Also, it’s cold outside here at the moment. Last month with a 41F average temperature, I averaged 65kWh/day @$0.122/kWh. Maybe it would work in Florida where you don’t have to worry about pipes freezing, but not here.
They could certainly improve the design for emergency power / camping backup but it’s not a priority and I guess the market is too small to make it so. The F150 has multiple options.
Most solar generator companies now sell alternator chargers. All of these concerns are voiced but not much empirical data. Its kind of the wild west. Connecting these things to your 20 year old econobox is a lot different than a modern SUV. https://us.ecoflow.com/products/800w-alternator-charger
A modern vehicle sitting at idle still needs to run all its systems (lights, stereo, climate, heated seats, windows, etc.). Both of my vehicles have 200A+ alternators. If you aren’t running those systems than you should have 500W+ of headroom at idle.
Then there is the issue of smart alternators, some cars will reduce alternator output for better efficiency.
I tried to post something at Climate, etc. and got a “Nonce verification failed.” Is that my VPN?
What I wanted to point out is that using carbon emissions per capita is not a good way to compare emissions between countries. Emissions scale by GDP, so it seems to me that energy efficiency is more important. That would be emissions/$GDP. On that basis, the US in 2022 was more than twice as efficient as China with 0.19 gigatons CO2/trillion dollars for the US and 0.42 for China. GDP from IMF data, PPP corrected. China has a long way to go.
At least some of that difference in efficiency must be due to China producing all our “inefficient” crap? I wouldn’t be at all surprised to find out that all our handwringing on this subject has had zero effect on CO2 trajectory and perhaps even made it worse.
The article is unironically arguing that taxing its citizens via congestion pricing is “Proving What the Democratic Party Is Capable Of” with an assumption that these funds would then be used judicially to improve their citizens lives going forward.
Yeah, right. Looks like FL will need to build even more housing for NY’ers.
Tom Scharf,
I guess people are planning on a continuing flux of newcomers.
In my county, the rate of construction of residential real estate is almost mindboggling: condos, houses, apartments. When I drive on a road I have not been on in a year, I usually discover large housing developments nearing completion….. hundreds of houses each. A condo complex with about 180 apartments went up not far from me in just over 4 months.
Tom Scharf,
That congestion tax in NYC is supposed to finance the subway system that has been bleeding even more money than usual because it’s now so dangerous and a lot of people who do use it jump the turnstiles. Of course if it did reduce congestion, then it would raise less money than expected. Note that imposition was delayed until after the election.
Tom (#244363)
Speaking of OSU – there’s mounting talk around here that OSU took the week off against ‘that team from up north’. Being most generous, OSU did not show anyone anything that could be used against them in the playoffs. If they could win by running the ball up the middle, so be it. But they weren’t going to give any indication of their true capabilities.
Why should they? Since they were a lock for the playoffs, and they would have to play Oregon in the championship (and likely a third time in the playoffs), what was the benefit? A first round bye if they won, but they’d have to play an extra game if they lost. So what was the benefit?
It also is clear that OSU made no effort to engage the strength of their team – the wideouts- into the game. The one drive they did, they flew down the field for a TD. _ichigan had no answer for that. It is almost as if OSU was taking the last game off to rest players. Except they didn’t rest players.
The implications of this are huge. The big rivalries are typically held the week of thanksgiving. But if your team has a spot in the playoffs, why show anyone anything? Give the players the week off. Who cares about the game (see how the Chiefs completely shut their team down against the Broncos yesterday)? Sure, boosters won’t like it, but if OSU wins the national title, they’ll live with it.
Re: Congestion Tax
I wonder what would happen if the citizens just didn’t pay it? Take the EZ-Pass transponder off the dash, and when the ‘pay by mail’ option comes in, they just throw it in the trash. Massive civil disobedience. Would the state really go after tens of thousands of citizens?
Also, saw that the FDNY has come out publicly saying this is idiotic and will have a major impact on staffing.
It’s going to take a lot of convincing for me to believe OSU didn’t care about beating MI ha ha. The stories I read was Day’s job was being questioned solely because he has lost 4 in a row to MI. IIRC OSU had beaten MI like 12/13 games before that.
But yeah, it all worked out for them anyway. One of the things I think elite teams understand better than most is knowing to peak near the end of the season and they do have the privilege of losing a game generally speaking whether they deserve that or not.
It’s all part of what makes college football interesting.
The NIL era is going to make the gap between top programs and the rest bigger I suspect.
Was the OSU coaches job in direr straits with a win against MI and lose of the National Championship or a lose to MI and winning the Nationals. If it were the NFL option 2 would obviuosly be preferred by way of KC versus Denver.
I think sitting your best players down or worse playing them but not expecting best effort is a losing strategy. The alternative of protecting players from injury is given too much weight in my estimation.
I think the better player stocked teams appear to peak towards season end because the teams with less player abilities max out on the season long learning curve -as do the better stocked teams – and the result is a starker showing difference in the underlying player abilities.
DeanP,
I am pretty sure that Ohio State would have won the Big Ten east if they beat Michigan. So you want us to believe that they decided that they did not care about (a) beating Michigan (b) getting a chance to pay Oregon back (c) winning the Big Ten title and (d) getting a bye in the playoffs. I don’t think so.
And Kenneth is right. Maybe you sit your stars. Both you don’t play them and not try to win.
Lesser teams also tend to not have a strong bench so the inevitable injuries take a larger toll on them.
Well rested or rusty after a week off? More typical is letting the starters play a series or two and then sitting.
There is a lot of luck with injuries in football. Florida State got the royal screw job last year when their QB went down late in the season and they were eliminated from the playoff even though they were undefeated.
I agree – it is far fetched, but what do they gain if they play Oregon? A first round bye? They gain that by not beating Michigan. They had as much time off as Oregon did, and will play the same number of games as those that got the bye.
The 12-team championship tourney has changed the game – just as NIL has changed the game. It is now the Junior NFL and teams will start treating it as such. If that means sitting your players the last week of the season, so be it!
Now, I also know that there are only two people that would have been in on this: Ryan Day and Chip Kelly (OC and play caller). The players did not know. I doubt even the other coaches would have known.
Players sitting out non-CFP bowl games (opting out) for fear of injury has become common now. Can’t say I blame them. Fan attendance of other bowl games looked rather sparse this year.
DeanP wrote: “It is now the Junior NFL and teams will start treating it as such. If that means sitting your players the last week of the season, so be it!”
That might well happen in future. But you provide no evidence that has happened. Just the opposite since Ohio State did not rest their stars.
—–
DeanP wrote: “The players did not know. I doubt even the other coaches would have known.”
They might not have known before the game started. But it would not have taken long for them to figure it out. That would have been a terrific way to destroy trust between players and coaches.
DeanP wrote: “but what do they gain if they play Oregon?”
At the risk of being repetitive:
(a) beating Michigan
(b) payback against Oregon
(c) winning the Big Ten title
(d) getting a bye in the playoffs
Tom Scharf,
The expanded playoffs might be the end of the other bowl games.
A bye in the CFP playoffs was the kiss of death this year. It’s no longer a good thing in the NFL either. Speculation is that it’s because the players now get three days off during bye weeks.
I think that Andy Reid is 5-1 in playoff games following a playoff bye. I don’t know how typical that is in the NFL.
MikeM (244398)
And none of those things matter if the goal is to win a national title. The bye was inconsequential – even if the bye is shown to hurt teams (I am not making that claim – one data point does not make a trend).
It was inconsequential because OSU was in a position where they’d play the same number of games as a bye team.
It also is evident that the team was extremely frustrated at the end of the UM game – re: the flag planting fight. The team knew that with the talent they had, the game should not have been close. It put a chip on their shoulder which they used to rout Tennessee – and Oregon. Will they continue against Texas? who knows. That’s why they play the game.
On a side note about getting a bye: In MLB, getting a bye in the first round has not been a good thing. Since 2022, the records of the bye teams winning the divisional season is 6-6. The NL bye team record is an abysmal 1-5.
In 3 seasons of the current MLB playoff setup, 6 of 12 bye teams have made the LCS while 6 of 24 non-bye teams have made it. The bye teams have twice the success rate. I’d say that gettng a bye has been a good thing.
Of course, the sample size is too small to draw a firm conclusion. My guess is that as the sample size grows, the advantage of a bye will turn out to be even better.
Facebook is removing the fact checking scolds and replacing them with something similar to community notes on X. All the credentialed misinformation professionals must be weeping.
Zuckerberg: “the fact checkers have become too politically biased”, “we are moving our trust and safety teams out of CA and moving them to Texas”.
Ouch. That’s not going to go over well with the usual suspects…
The legacy media is marketing this as pandering to the Trump administration but yet never saw social media companies adjusting policies to Biden’s preferences as pandering.
Facebook has also said it plans to introduce AI bots to increase engagement. One of their test bots described itself as a “proud, black, queer, momma of 2 & truth teller. Your realest source for life’s ups and downs.”…
Put two and two together and you have community notes dominated by AI pretending to be normal people. Let’s not also forget that Texas contains Austin. It’s own little slice of Cali.
I always thought it was weird that there is this unquestioned goal of having a single unified Ministry of Truth when most of the contentious topics are mired in uncertainty.
One should be skeptical of those who promote one size fits all censorship, these promoters always feel the censors will be aligned with their views.
Why not just allow people to pick their own filters and modify them whenever they please?
I don’t have any problem if somebody voluntarily wants to only view the truth as determined by the government ministry. It shouldn’t be the default but it should be one of the options.
Tom Scharf wrote: “I always thought it was weird that there is this unquestioned goal of having a single unified Ministry of Truth when most of the contentious topics are mired in uncertainty. ”
That goal is not weird. It is evil.
Mike M.
January 7, 2025 at 9:18 am
The bye teams are the better regular schedule teams and much better than some of the non bye teams. If we are attempting to determine the effects of the time off the bye provides , the team performance rating has to be factored in.
Tom Scharf,
“most of the contentious topics are mired in uncertainty”
That is only part of it. The most contentious topics ALSO have huge values based weighting. If your fundamental ‘world view’ is that:
1) all white people are “privileged” and all are irredeemably, utterly prejudiced against blacks, and
2) all of history must be interpreted as conflicts between (evil racist) occupiers and (innocent, non-racist) occupied,
Then accepting this, your world view has no uncertainty, and all other factual uncertainties are 100% discounted in light of that overriding political certainty.
It is, IMHO, an evil and destructive POV, but (unfortunately) one held by many influential people…. including the vast majority working in academia. Among the general public, the bluer the state, the greater the fraction of people who hold those views.
I was able to come up with a larger set of data for win/loss records of NFL teams after a bye week from 2003-2024 in the link below.
I thought it might be for the regular season, but looking at variation in the total decisions by teams it has to include the playoffs. Any way the overall record for all NFL teams is 764 wins, 4 ties and 642 loses after a bye week.
If it were regular season only, the team performance difference could be minimized by the random effect of who the laidoff team plays after a bye week. No effect would suggest the same number of loses and wins.
I’ll have to find more detailed data to do a proper analysis.
Kenneth,
Wouldn’t we expect the scheduling of a bye week to be completely random in terms of the strength of the next opponent? If so, it is hard for me to see how that ratio (746 to 642) could happen save for that a bye week is (moderately) advantageous. Of course, pros vs college is an inscrutable variable.
One thing to consider: a bye week in college football playoffs ALSO means home field advantage…. which alone is usually considered a significant advantage. That all four bye teams (higher ranking, home field advantage) lost suggests to me the rankings are just wrong.
Steve,
The bye week in college football means losing a potential home field game. The second round is at the bowl game location. So OSU, Penn St. , and UT got a warm-up game in front of their home crowd. Then OSU played Oregon at the Rose Bowl. No home field for Oregon.
As for the strength of the opponent after a bye, I don’t believe it is random. In fact, it is the better of the two lower seed teams. So in this case, Oregon had to play the better of OSU vs Tennessee. On paper, there wasn’t much to differentiate the two. On the field, there was. Ariz State had to play the winner of the UT/Clemson game – where UT was clearly a better team.
Had it been a 16 team tourney and no byes, Oregon would have probably played Clemson (or maybe Ole Miss or South Carolina) at Oregon. That game would have allowed Oregon to get any rust off that had gathered over the month off.
SteveF
January 7, 2025 at 6:37 pm
Yes, as I noted, if the data were entirely from regular season games random opponents would be a reasonable assumption. Unfortunately the data includes post season games where opponent strength is not random. We can estimate that post season byes, which are only 2 per season presently and I believe 4 at one time, are 1/16 to 1/8 of the total season bye weeks. Therefore ,of the approximate 1400 bye weeks, the play offs would account for approximately 170 bye weeks. For the playoffs to account for the total win lose difference it would have had to be portioned by 137 wins and 34 wins. That seems an unrealistically high win portion and thus I would conclude the a bye week gives a slight advantage in regular season play and a greater one in the playoffs were the opponents are not random and actully considered by regular season play of inferior skill.
That should have been 137 wins and 34 loses.
Was in hurry to get to the barber shop and get rid of my holiday mop.
Kenneth,
Prior to 2020, there were 4 teams a year with playoff byes. So 17 years with 4 byes and 4 years (2024 is not yet in the books) with 2 byes. A total of 76 playoff byes. So even if the home team won all of those, it would still leave a regular season advantage for the bye.
My guess is the primary advantage for a bye week in the NFL is injury recovery. You also get two weeks to plan for your next opponent which allows some advantage in game strategy planning.
In the playoffs the teams getting a bye are theoretically the better team so that throws a wrench into everything. For this years CFP the teams getting the bye weren’t necessarily the better team and that may just be an anomaly of seeding and GA losing their QB.
Mike M.
January 8, 2025 at 9:52 am
Mike, I am writing this as I calculate in attempting to account for the total of the wins/loses/ties in the link I referenced.
Starting with the regular season byes starting in 1990 there were 32 per year for 34 years through 2023 giving a number of bye weeks of 1088. The total number of bye weeks from the link is 1392. Next I have to account for playoff bye weeks. From 1990 to 2019 there were 4 per year for 30 years for a total 120. For 2020 to 2023 there were 2 per year for a total of 8. From 1978 to 1989 there was a wild card round in each conference, which meant that for the link total, 6 teams had a bye week. For our purposes since only 2 teams had an advantage of playing an unrested team and thus that count would be 2 per year. For the link the total is 72. With this information I can account for 1288 bye weeks of the 1392 from the link. For our purposes I can account for 152 playoff bye weeks.
If my calculations are correct I have to find an additional 104 bye weeks. I thought I saw somewhere that there were regular season bye weeks prior to 1990. I do not remember that, but now I have to look.
In 1993 there were 16 games over 18 weeks with 2 bye weeks per team. Now I have find 72 bye weeks.
In 1960 there were 13 NFL teams requiring 13 bye weeks. In 1966 there were 15 teams requiring 15 bye weeks. That leaves 44 bye weeks unaccounted.
Kenneth Fritsch wrote: “I was able to come up with a larger set of data for win/loss records of NFL teams after a bye week from 2003-2024 in the link below.”
Was that date range wrong? It is what I used.
Kenneth,
I think that regular season NFL byes started in 1999 when the ne Cleveland Browns made 31 teams. I don’t see any point in going further back.
I may finally be able to achieve my lifelong dream of driving to the coast and watching a sunset over …
The Gulf of America!
Trump is almost worth it for the comedy value alone.
Mike M.
January 8, 2025 at 12:29 pm
Mike, I used the all selection for that link and it goes back to 1990 regular season byes and includes the byes for the 1960 and 1966 seasons. The playoff byes go back to 1978.
I can account within 44 byes to the link byes using the data as described. For our puposes I believe the 152 playoff byes are correct. The regular season byes for our purposes, by including the 44 missing byes, would be 1278.
You would have the playoff byes correct for the time period you selected, but I think you were using my all selection data for total wins,ties and loses which came from the all selection.
Tom Scharf
January 8, 2025 at 2:18 pm
Trump off topic means the media is off topic and there is no discussion of the serious issues. In the end I do not know how this plays out since the media is going to present any serious policy that reduces the size of government very negatively.
Whatever serious issues need legislation should be seriously presented even if the Democrats and their press toadies fight it and win. At least the public will know where they stand and that the battle is over government power. There was a WSJ article today implying the Republican efforts to reduce government will go nowhere -they hope.
Kenneth Fritsch: “Trump off topic means the media is off topic”.
I am curious as to why you think that the one follows the other. And perhaps also what you mean by “off topic”.
Off topic to me is buying Greenland and taking back the Panama Canal and basically any topic not involving the reduction of the government’s reach. On topic for me would also include enforcing existing laws such as those dealing with immigration.
I thought we were going to invade Greenland and take it by force. How hard could that be? I’m sure all those clever lawyers can find a loophole somewhere to justify it. I’m pretty sure they are developing WMD’s up there.
China buying Greenland would really set the cat amongst the pigeons!
Taking over Panama is like Russia taking Ukraine.
Same morals.
Who is going to stop you?
More a ploy to get an agreement on cheaper canal charges , one feels.
–
Off topic I guess.
Trumps tax breaks continuing is the big issue. Even the Democrats made. No effort to raise them in office and secretly evetpybody is hanging out for them.
angech,
China has been working on getting control of both Greenland and the Panama Canal. They don’t want to annex them, they want to make those countries dependent on China via Belt and Road. That way China can control them without having to bother to govern them.
angech,
For small business owners, Trump’s 2017 tax reductions are a very big deal. There will be a push to get them extended via reconciliation, but it will be contentious, especially if some if the ‘most MAGA’ Republicans in the House object. The thing that is difficult is that reconciliation is supposed to be ‘deficit neutral’…. what passes is supposed to not make deficits worse. Extending the 2017 tax cuts means there are supposed to be offsets. Canceling most of Biden’s green boondoggles will help, but may not be enough.
Could be ugly unless Republicans have solid unanimity, something they have never had in the past 3 decades. They are more like a herd of house-cats caught out in a rainstorm.
Truth is, If Trump reduces regulatory burdens the economy will grow much faster….. but it is hard to quantify that influence to say how much deficits will fall.
It only takes a couple Republicans who care about the federal budget to tank these bills. Libertarians aren’t all dead. That’s likely going to be a problem.
“ From 2012 to 2023, the researchers found that the bye-week edge essentially disappeared, down to a negligible 0.3 points. That also led them to a conclusion: the boost likely had more to do with the extra time teams had to practice and prepare for their next opponent, not from the additional rest time. ”
Thanks, DeWitt for the references. Interesting models and results.
It is my impression from watching teams that have had time off that they have lost some of their performance edge and it takes them time into the game to recover it.
I admit to not watching that many NFL games lately. Watching the Bears makes me yell at the TV too much. I will go out of my way to watch Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. Sorry, Aaron but age has apparently caught up with you.
Funny headline from the Babylon Bee?
“Meta Says Fact-Checkers Were the Problem. Fact-Checkers Rule That False”
Nope. that was a real headline from the New York Times.
LA is going to have some serious questions to answer when entire urban neighborhoods are burnt to the ground. It looks like a nuke hit. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34YkN-ISh_E
Not everything is preventable but the city needs to explain why their firefighting plan failed so miserably.
Sections of the LA basin burns on a somewhat regular basis.
Combine dry, untrimmed , and dense brush covered hills and high winds for a tinderbox just waiting for a spark.
Now that the brush cover has been burned off the hills, next will come mudslides.
Before shake roof tiles were outlawed, the fire losses for homes were bad. Losses of 1000 + homes in a limited area were common.
But building on hillsides that act as a chimney for fire has its own special place in fire management.
Mike M,
“Nope. that was a real headline from the New York Times.”
One of the great things about the left is that they completely lack capacity for introspection. Of COURSE the “fact checkers” are absurdly left-biased. Of COURSE they don’t think so. All assholes, all the time.
Ed Forbes,
“Before shake roof tiles were outlawed, ”
What were outlawed were shake (aka wooden) roofs.
Imitation (ceramic) ‘shake roof tiles’ are not a problem.
I just talked to my brother who lives well south of LA so isn’t in the fire zone. He pointed out that it’s hard to fight fires or prevent fires from spreading when there’s no water at the fire hydrants and a shortage of firefighters because of budget cuts. A law was passed about ten years ago that was supposed to increase the amount of stored water in reservoirs. No money has been spent yet.
First they said demand was too high which caused low water pressure then later said it was power outages taking down pumps. I don’t think they have any idea what’s going on.
What little I saw of news conferences wasn’t confidence inspiring.
I listened to an episode of the California insider podcast (I think it was a representative of farmers) about 9 months ago and the guest stated that about 80 or 90% of the heavy rain that California had received had gone back into the ocean in order to protect some small fish. Just incredible that environmental extremists can cause so much damage. On the other hand, Californians have been voting these people into office. Maybe this will lead to substantial changes for the better because it is such obvious stupidity and dereliction of duty.
Before it becomes ancient history, Tom Scharf and I had a discussion about the male and female golf touring pros. Tom mentioned that he thought that the women putted better than the men. That is not true. The leading male putter takes 27.38 parts per round and the leading female butter takes 28.12 what’s per round which is a big difference in a four round tournament. However, the women are much more accurate drivers than the men, with the leading female driver hitting 88% of the fairways. The women are very good ball strikers but from the statistics and what I have observed in watching several tournaments and playing in several pro ams they are not as good putters or chippers as the men. https://www.golfmonthly.com/tour/lpga-vs-pga-tour-pro-how-the-stats-compare
That was a pretty good game tonight. Very entertaining. Too bad the Penn State QB choked at the end. He will remember that INT forever unfortunately.
Australia regularly suffers severe and massive fire outbreaks.
Worse than America as some of our native trees need their seeds scorched to be able to regenerate.
Numerous lives lost and inquiries held.
Conclusions.
Within 5 years of a massive fire season everyone forgets about the danger and rebuilds in the bush where they will burn down again [like the Hollywood hills I guess].
Cleaning out old growth by limited and controlled burn backs reduces the fire risk immensely.
Downside in grape growing areas like California and southern Australia is that smoke from real or controlled fires taints the grapes making those harvests which occur after the burn back and fire seasons undrinkable.
Pressure from growers to not burn back or at the right time means burn back policies, after 5 years become suspended or dropped.
Run for the hills or really run for anywhere the fire isn’t is a good policy to save your life. Let the house burn. Do not stay and fight it. People die in houses.
If you choose to live in the bush or back blocks and want to avoid burning you need a massive area of cleared land around your house..
Dry states like California and countries like Australia depend on water and dams for survival.
Build more dams.
Rehouse the fish.
The history [ancient] of fires in California and Australia drought prone, grasslands and bush and old fuel is one of massive fires on a recurrent basis every 15-20 years after a few good seasons followed by extremely hot and dry spells.
3% swing to Republicans
It might require more analysis than putts per round. If men miss more greens or their courses feature smaller greens then they might be putting from shorter distances on average. Perhaps make percentage from 10 feet or something.
I can believe men might be better anyway because of stronger competition.
However there shouldn’t be any particular physical reason why men should be better putters.
The same is true for things like darts and pool where men are better anyway.
They recently discovered a fish that environmentalists used to hold up a Tennessee dam wasn’t genetically distinct.
I’m sympathetic to the environment but not environmentalists.
re: men’s professional versus women’s professional putting. I believe it is increased competition. About 10 times more men play golf than women.
JDOhio,
I think any fair comparison of putting and chipping skill has to take into account distance from the hole. IIRC, the average distance to the pin after approach is longer for women than for men.
angech,
Even though the need for more water storage was recognized (and funded with municipal bonds!) in 2014, no added water storage has been constructed. The last increase in water storage near Los Angeles was put in service in 1979.
Brush thinning to reduce fire risk has been postponed/resisted/underfunded for decades.
The fire was destructive because California politics are destructive…. not other reason.
SteveF. You make a good general point about distance from the hole. However, I’ve seen several articles stating that the women from something like 100 to 150 yards, hit the ball closer to the hole. a little hard for me to understand because many of the men are super good. It is possible that the men are hitting into more difficult greens in general that are firmer than those that the women hit into.
Also, the women are playing much shorter golf courses than the men so their approach shots should be roughly comparable.
Supreme Court not helping Trump out which is a good thing in one way, but also shows Chief Justice’s true colors, which we already knew.
How many pardons will Biden issue for non crimes [ahem] on his last day?
The whole Jan 6th Kangaroo court is very likely.
Hoping Ohio State can win the game against Texas. Their offensive line is not that good although with mirrors and adjustments they have done well the last couple games. After Ohio State lost to Michigan, with all the lunatic fans I was afraid that a generational mistake would be made and that Ryan Day might be fired even though he has a ridiculously good winning record. There is no one Ohio State can hire who would be better than Ryan Day.
“Reservoirs and emergency water tanks were all full before the fires started.
The fire budget was increased by $50 million.
The donations to Ukraine were in 2022 and included only small amounts of unused surplus equipment such as boots, hoses, nozzles, body armor and medication. None of this had any impact on current fire fighting.
A grand total of 12 LAFD workers were fired for neither getting a COVID vaccine nor requesting an exemption. They have long since been replaced.
Brush clearing is problematic for sure, but I’m not sure who “they” is in this sentence.
California has a poor record of doing prescribed burns. That said, only the US Forest Service—not California—halted prescribed burns temporarily in October. Everyone else, including Cal Fire, the US Park Service, BLM, native tribes, and private property owners, kept on burning. Overall, California burns about 125,000 acres per year and increased that to 250,000 acres in 2023 with plans to burn 400,000 acres in 2025.
Storm water has always drained primarily to the sea in order to prevent flooding, especially in rainy years that produce too much water to be captured. However, a significant amount is captured to recharge groundwater aquifers, and that amount has been growing ever since LA voters approved a tax levy in 2018 that goes toward storm water capture projects.
This article suggests the LA water system is not designed to put out fires the engulf the full city:
The water system that supplies neighborhoods simply doesn’t have the capacity to deliver such large volumes of water over several hours, said Martin Adams, former general manager of the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power.
also
When a wildfire erupts, L.A. fire crews often turn to using aircraft to drop water and fire retardant.
But while the flames were spreading rapidly on Tuesday and Wednesday, officials temporarily grounded water-dropping helicopters because of the extraordinarily strong Santa Ana winds, making crews more dependent on the limited water systems on the ground.
High school physics…
Hydrants functioned at lower elevations, but in hillier areas like the Palisades Highlands — where the storage tanks hold water that flows by gravity to communities below — they ran dry.
Geeh… yah think?
BTW: this “whiplash” is when fires happene d at Hanford too. But this was away from homes
The fires erupted following a stark shift from wet weather to extremely dry weather, a bout of climate “whiplash” that scientists say increased wildfire risks.
Near Hanford, there were more fires in wet years because there was more brush to burn. Summers were always dry enough for everything to dry out.
“On top of that, we had a loss of power temporarily,” which affected the system, he told reporters Wednesday.
It will be interesting to hear why they lost power?
Sounds like LA didn’t have the foresight to spend the money to have an adequate water system
Sorensen said. In the L.A. area, she said, it would have been very expensive to develop additional storage “adequate to mitigate or even fight the wildfires in these higher-elevation pressure zones, but right now I’d imagine most people in L.A. would say it would’ve been worth the cost.”
I wonder what the system around here is like? ( We get Lake Michigan water. I don’t know if the pumps are sized to deal with a sudden County wide fire.)
Anyway, climate change or no climate change, cities and states should be funding large enough water reserves for somewhat predictable large city wide fires.
One of the first videos I saw was of one fireman hosing down a house that was completely involved while another was filming it on their phone. It was a bit strange.
From one perspective when a Cat4+ hurricane hits FL it is just expected there will be a lot of damage. They could make building codes super robust but that would significantly increase housing and infrastructure costs. It is accepted and anticipated damage will be done.
Every hurricane is analyzed by FEMA and the damage is assessed. If there are economical ways to prevent damage (roof straps, pre-emptively cutting trees around power lines, etc.) then those are recommended.
I don’t know hardly anything about fire fighting so it is unclear whether there was a plan that didn’t work, incompetent execution of a plan, or it is just a disaster that couldn’t be stopped without serious economic sacrifice.
So Cal has been burning for a long time.
I think the basic problem is the high winds blow burning embers all over the place making the fire nearly impossible to contain, no matter how much water you have. Without the wind the fire can be cordoned off and contained, otherwise it jumps designated fire lines.
My impression was there was a lot more fire watching going on than fire fighting, basically save the people and wait for the wind to die down.
Regardless the fire officials need to explain it.
WSJ on Trump sentencing:
“This defendant has caused enduring damage to the public perception of criminal justice,” (Prosecutor) Steinglass said.
Ummmm, no. The NY justice system did that to itself. I think it can be unequivocally stated that this legal vendetta against Trump backfired. It made him a victim, what a misguided mess.
I seriously question whether Trump would have gotten elected without all the TDS. I’d almost call it a genius plan but that is too far, maybe it’s just Trump’s innate instincts. Trump the clown defeats the self appointed best and brightest.
Today’s WSJ editorial says more needs to be revealed about the water supply problem and the extent of the wild fire damage attributed to it before making judgments, but that the insurance and the CA state regulation of it is problematic. It appears to be dumb a$$ regulators making unrealistic rules about how insurance should operate.
Nothing new here: let’s move on to getting the taxpayer to cover our mistakes that are not really mistakes when we can attribute it to climate change not withstanding adapting to it.
The WSJ news section wrote a lot about the fires, but I saw nothing about the water problem in that section of the paper.
Shanghai 2019,
We added days on the front (Beijing) and aft end (Shanghai) of our 2019 RoadScholar Tour(which was excellent).
We found the Chinese we interacted with delightful. Gramatically correct English spoken with an accent which might have been several generations away from any contact with a native speaker could be quite bizarre. Our contacts knew it and really wanted to clean it up.
We had dinner in Shanghai with son of a friend who lived there, bureau chief for English magazine. I asked him what the downside of living there might be asuming one did not participate in politics nor in any political discussions.
The answer was “unappealable and sometimes adverse government actions”
The example was a residential development which was just coming to market in what had been the French Concession. The name of the place referred to the French Concession, the advertising did as well, and there was considerable investment in similarly named signs, brochures, streets etc.
As the marketing campaign commenced, the developer received a notice that there could be no reference to the French Concession in any aspect of the project. Developer had thirty days to fix this. No appeal was possible and they had to do it at considerable expense.
Think HOA writ large.
2011 Luang Prabang
Another Trip, this one to Thailand, then down the Mekong from Chiang Rai to Luang Prabang, two days in converted rice barge – narrow boat with seats from a bus, capacity 30 souls +/-.
Luang Prabang was French colonial at one time and a lot of the street layout suggests european input. We stayed at a small hotel which was run by a civil engineer, graduate of French University, but due to family obligations stuck running the place. fascinating guy. There was a dam under construciton north of Luang Prabanag which he dearly wished to be working on, but alas..
I was out on a morning walk and encountered a soldier in what looked like a North Vietnamese Uniform, soft hat, blue grey etc. He had a fairly large semi-automatic rifle over his shoulder and was standing there apparently because he’d been told to.
I said good morning and smiled at him.
He burst into tears which suggested that I might want to discover how I’d provoked this. I asked. He had some English and was able to tell me that I was the first person who’d wished him well since he’d been assigned here a few mnths earlier.
“They hate me.”
“Why?”
” Because I’m from a different village. They don’t like the government, The army never assigns us to our own towns, always someplace else.”
” how did you learn English, which is prety good?”
“From my dad who learned it during the war.”
I wished him well and was thanked for caring.
I tend to interact with the locals to the extent possible with or without the language. There are some other stories, partitulcarly from China along similar lines.
Sorry for my absence, we are dealing with our continuing medical issues.
Two fire water problems.: instantaneous flow and total reservoir quantity.
Maintaining fire flow in a new subdivision is a complex engineering problem, normally requiring modeling and using existing hydrant flow tests as starting data. Pipeline sizes are almost always based on fire flows, not domestic supply. In a single family subdivision in Sarasota we would normally size the lines for two fires at the same time for maximum flow. It boggles my mind the size of lines required for that Palisades fire alone. Remember all the homeowners were running their hoses and sprinklers as a preventative measure, as well as all the hydrants being on.
But LA had an additional problem. They also ran out of water in their holding tanks.
Janisse Quiñones, chief executive and chief engineer of the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power:
“Quiñones said that the hydrants in the Palisades rely on three large water tanks with about 1 million gallons each. The first ran dry at 4:45 p.m. Tuesday; the second at 8:30 p.m.; and the third was dry at 3 a.m. Wednesday.”
Some math:
Assume 2 hoses at 250 gpm each for three hours per fire or 90,000 gallons per fire. Three million gallons would be enough for 33 home fires. [they had incoming flows to the tanks but those were a trickle compared to the usage flows]
I’ve seen news reports of 9,000 structures destroyed.
It boggles the mind.
Check my assumptions and math please! https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2025-01-08/lack-of-water-from-hydrants-in-palisades-fire-is-hampering-firefighters-caruso-says
LAFD Assistant Chief Kristine Larson on why you should care about diversity:
“You want to see somebody that responds to your house, your emergency, whether it’s a medical call or a fire call, that looks like you. It gives that person a little bit more ease, knowing that somebody might understand their situation better.
‘Is she strong enough to do this?’ or ‘You couldn’t carry my husband out of a fire.’ Which my response is, ‘he got himself in the wrong place if I have to carry him out of a fire.'”
…
What happened in FL in 2005 is that the insurance industry threw out historical averages for damages after a couple bad hurricane years and then assumed 30% more damage due to climate change using climate models.
The US then had 11 straight years without a major hurricane landfall and the damages ended up being right at the historical average. Somehow inusrance didn’t go down.
I expect something similar to happen in CA. The insurance industry seems to effectively operate on a post pay model with large increases after major disasters. Recency bias in humans tends to give them a pass for this.
A lot of insurance companies left FL and many may leave CA. They don’t really like the super volatile very bad year disaster model and prefer the more mundane and predictable auto crash model.
Ah Russell,
I’m remembering Hardy-Cross and computer modeling the Fire System at Cheasapeake Bay Detachment in 1985. I inherited the project when the guy who actually knew how to do it quit.
It was really interesting, and somewhere I have a copuy of the final report.
DaveJR,
A firefighter in full kit doesn’t have much skin exposed because exposed skin gets burned. About all you can really tell is height and weight. So an invalid is SOL? Oh, puhleeze. In woke terms, that’s blatantly ableist
Tom Scharf
January 10, 2025 at 12:47 pm
Tom, the WSJ editorial to which I referred noted that the state of CA regulators had to decide/approve the algorithm used to determine insurance premiums. That is why some insurance companies left the state. There is a property insurance in CA that is available for property owners who cannot otherwise obtain insurance and it is currently way under capitalized.
I am curious in Florida, where you have catastrophic events like in CA, how premiums are determined.
John, Your post:
“I’m remembering Hardy-Cross and computer modeling the Fire System at Cheasapeake Bay Detachment in 1985. I inherited the project when the guy who actually knew how to do it quit.”
Along those lines, we had one guy who had done a lot of water fire flow modeling projects within the Sarasota County Utility system, so we always farmed that task to him. He knew more about their system than their engineers did. They were always calling him for ‘free’ consulting when they had fire flow issues. I was happy for him to help our local government but always worried about our liability.
Another fire flow issue. When you size a system for fire flows, you grossly overdesign it for potable domestic use. That leads to water quality issues.
DeWitt Payne
January 10, 2025 at 12:58 pm
I guess the person under duress would have to query the attire covered fire fighter with something like: “I cannot tell visually what you are and thus I have to ask if you are like me.” The proper reply would be: “yes, I am a human being just like you.”
Russell, there is an ancient brick sever which has been sectioned in one end of the Roman Forum. It is egg-shaped – smaller diameter down. Clearly they understood that they needed to keep the flow velocity up in low flow conditions. Those guys were so impressive. It’s a bit too bad that a lot of the people who see these things have no idea just how marvelous they are.
John, do you have a link?
Russell,
Thats “sewer” in the note above.
Russell, no link but I do have some photos of it. I’m warming up to putting an album together on Flickr the better to share photos with you guys. we’re off to Cairo on Monday and I’m trying to get the photo equipment under control – ie. fit the bag.
john
“Quiñones said that the hydrants in the Palisades rely on three large water tanks with about 1 million gallons each. The first ran dry at 4:45 p.m. Tuesday; the second at 8:30 p.m.; and the third was dry at 3 a.m. Wednesday.”
Some math:
I googled the population of the pacific palisades 23,159 (2021)
So their capacity up at the level of the Palisades is about 130 gallons per resident . That’s about 3 or 4 water heaters worth of water.
> 3e6/23159
[1] 129.5393
Anymore and they are pumping up from the lower level.
Lucia,
That’s plenty of day tank storage for potable use. Assuming 50 GPD/ capita they have 2.6 days. It’s fire reserve where this falls short.
“You want to see somebody that responds to your house, your emergency, whether it’s a medical call or a fire call, that looks like you.”
Proving, in case there was any doubt, that she is an incompetent idiot. I think it is safe to say bad things are going to happen to local politicians in southern CA.
Insurance costs in FL are absurd, which is why I self insure against wind damage. Cuts my insurance cost by ~80%.
Thomas W Fuller
When you put out information like the following
“://jabberwocking.com/elon-musk-is-the-new-emperor-of-misinformation/
“Reservoirs and emergency water tanks were all full before the fires started.”
–
Do you do it because it is accurate?
This Kevin Drum fellow (sounds familiar) seems to have a dislike for Musk and selective choice of his statistics to portray things in the best pro Democrat way that he can.
Would you consider checking some of these other statistics/ views as to their accuracy and advise if you still consider Mr Drum to be an unbiased and more to the point accurate source to quote, assuming he is.
–
“The Santa Ynez Reservoir is connected to the Los Angeles water supply system, and authorities said it was shut down for repairs at the time the fires erupted, “leaving a 117 million gallon water storage complex empty in the heart of the Palisades,” the newspaper reported on Friday.”
That report may have relevance to how full those reservoir tanks actually were pre fire ( NB RK and Lucia)
–
“The fire budget was increased by $50 million.”
Seems at odds with a lot of other reports
“When asked about how the budget cuts, which slashed the budget by $17,553,814 from $837,191,237 to $819,637,423, Crowley said that they “did impact our ability to provide service.” ”
–
Joe Rogan and Trump talked about the fire unpreparedness in California 3 months ago.
Newsom blocked Trumps idea of more water storage for California with the last bad outbreak in his first term.
Why do you not mention this instead?
–
Not trying to have a go at you.
Spain seems to have a fire problem like California and Australia. The eucalyptus gum trees grow prolifically in dry climes and burn very readily.
Are they as prolifically in Spain as in California?
The LBGQT-DEI Los Angeles city officials are having a cat [or maybe dog] fight:
“LA Fire Chief Kristin Crowley doubles down on throwing Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass under the bus.
Crowley said Bass’ leadership did “negatively impact” their efforts to stop the fire.
“Let me be clear. The $17M budget cut and elimination of our civilian positions like our mechanics did and has and will continue to severely impact our ability to repair our apparatus.”
“Over the last 3 years, we have been clear that the fire department needs help. We can no longer sustain where we are.”
“I have also requested multiple interim budgets… to show how understaffed, under-resourced, and underfunded the LAFD is.”
Video: https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1877851846330507752
Maybe we should lend them DeSantis to put the fires out.
“In Malibu, the Palisades fire damaged or destroyed iconic restaurants such as Moonshadows and Gladstones, as well as many businesses within Palisades Village.”
I remember Gladstones, site of my first (and last) oyster consumption.
The Texas/ Ohio State game is broadcasting in SkyCast on ESPNEWS.
Harold, your post:
“I remember Gladstones, site of my first (and last) oyster consumption.”
That may be a story better left untold. [BARF!]
If the situation were not so tragic, this woke clown show would be fun to watch.
They have no idea how leadership in a disaster needs to work. This fire may burn for a long time….breaking news:
“LA Mayor Karen Bass FIRES DEI Fire Chief Kristin Crowley after Crowley said today leadership “failed” amid the fires – Daily Mail
A reporter asked: “did they [city leadership] fail you?”
Crowley responded “yes”
Now she has been FIRED.”
Also today:
“LA Mayor Karen Bass is now claiming people don’t like her and want her to resign because she’s a black woman”
The Palisades 117M gallon reservoir has been empty since last Feb when a “several foot tear” was discovered in the cover. The city finally signed a contract in November to fix it. Sounds exactly like CA environmental and regulatory BAU.
FYI: latimes.com paywall is temporarily off for the disaster.
FL insurance industry is heavily regulated. Rate increases must be approved by the state. FL tried to stop rate increases in 2006 and many insurers chose to leave the state instead. FL also has a state run insurer of last resort (Citizens) and at one point IIRC about 30% of homes were insured through it.
Rates are dependent on the reinsurance industry is my understanding.
McDonald’s, Walmart, and Amazon also dial back DEI. The end is almost as sudden as the start. I’m guessing nobody wants to be the poster child for DEI litigation from the new administration.
Not everyone is taking it well.
Get Woke, Go up in Smoke:
“Gov. Gavin Newsom asks Joe Biden to focus on combating “misinformation” about the wildfires in California. That’s what he wants to prioritize as his state is burning to the ground???”
Video: https://x.com/libsoftiktok/status/1877801831536943540
The Woke Clown Show is ongoing:
“LA’s $750,000-a-year water chief who allegedly oversaw the emptying of the Santa Ynez Reservoir, previously said the “number one” thing she cared about in her role was “equity.”
No wonder why LA is burning. Every leader is a DEI hire.”
Video: https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1877880626600386641
The Governor jumps into the finger pointing:
“Gov. Gavin Newsom of California ordered an inquiry into a loss of water pressure after it was revealed that a reservoir was offline when the fires started.” https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/10/us/la-fires-gavin-newsom-water-supply.html
The fires are still raging out of control and all the senior government officials are mostly interested in joining a circular firing squad and CYA.
It’s a disgrace.
Although DEI may have affected some recent problems, it doesn’t hurt to remember that bureaucratic incompetence was skillfuly deployed for decades (maybe longer) before anyone had thought of it (DEI).
Actually centuries if you want to savor French bureacracy in the time of Colbert.
I agree John, but if we compare how Florida prepares for, and responds to, natural disasters and this California woke clown show it looks bad for DEI. The Mayor, the Fire Chief and the Water Department chief are all examples of DEI disasters.
In fact, the top three Fire Department officials are all lesbians,. The Chief only hires people from her dating pool.
Russell,
Our extended family has and has had lesbians in the last three generations, each successful by the standards of their time, two remarkably so. As far as I can see, lesbianism isn’t a reliable indicator of incompetence, or maybe anything else.
Also, what do we do here in Florida in preparation for our type of natural disasters which is at all analogous to storing a whole lot of water?
john ferguson,
In my county, there are scheduled controlled burns of forested areas to reduce underbrush growth and avoid big fires (that burn large trees). This is so common (multiple areas each year) that nobody even talks much about it. I don’t know about controlled burns in other parts of Florida.
Ditto in Sarasota County, I have helped out [filled the Gatorade cups!] on a few controlled burns. It’s actually boring. They ‘back burn’ [burn against a gentle wind], which progresses quite slowly.
John, your comment:
“As far as I can see, lesbianism isn’t a reliable indicator of incompetence,”
I agree, but when the top three officials in the fire department are all lesbians, I imagine merit is not how they got those positions. https://x.com/amuse/status/1877665383643074886
Good examples of preparation here. Russell, your point also seems valid.
It does make it harder to allege diversity though.
Another note about FL hurricane preparation (although not analogous to water storage): My town recently constructed a police/emergency operations center, designed to withstand winds above 190 mph, which is well into category 5. [I hope they situated the generators in an area not subject to flooding!]
Not perhaps as important as having enough shelter space for those who are unable to evacuate prior to the storm, but it’s valuable to allow those who are marshalling recovery resources, to maintain communications and monitor the local situation.
“lesbianism isn’t a reliable indicator of incompetence, or maybe anything else”
I completely agree with the intent of this thought. People need to be judged on their performance. Plenty of incompetent straight people. Incompetence is the problem where it exists.
OTOH the DEI activists try to use identity as a protective barrier against claims of incompetence. One is a *-ist if one attacks a government official of a protected class.
Sometimes that is exactly the case though, people see a protected class in leadership and automatically assume incompetence based on the theory they were hired for their class instead of merit.
One can simultaneously be a DEI hire and competent. Are they? One has to do some work to find out.
I’ll take a lesbian in government leadership all day long if they are competent and for smaller government and free speech, ha ha. Because of cultural tribalism a betting man would say that libertarian lesbians are probably less than 50% of the group but it is proper to allow these individuals to speak for themselves.
I look at DEI hires in a similar way to nepotism. The boss’s nephew may actually be competent but when one is hired for reasons other than merit than it is proper to be more skeptical.
john ferguson wrote: “As far as I can see, lesbianism isn’t a reliable indicator of incompetence, or maybe anything else.”
Of course not. But if you hire someone because of their sex, or skin color, or sexual orientation you will likely get someone less competent than the norm even for a government bureaucracy.
——
john ferguson: “what do we do here in Florida in preparation for our type of natural disasters which is at all analogous to storing a whole lot of water?”
Thinking carefully about what will be required in the event of likely disasters and preparing to be able to put that into effect when needed. The details may be different, but the principles are the same whether you are in hurricane country or wildfire country. FL prepares effectively for hurricanes; CA does not prepare effectively for wildfires.
As HaroldW stated hurricane preparations are mostly a building code issue. You rarely see significant damage to government infrastructure from hurricanes.
FL has somewhat of an unfair advantage because the bulk of its infrastructure has been progressively built to modern standards in the last 50 years. The bulk of damage and flooding occurs to structures that are >30 years old.
Other things like cutting of trees around power lines and upgrading infrastructure.
However a Cat5 will eventually hit an urban area again and it will be a gigantic disaster. Milton hit 180 mph in the gulf (of America!) and if that happened coming on shore the building codes won’t help most structures.
I talked to someone who went through Hurricane Andrew recently. Moved from room to room as the house collapsed around them.
From the link provided above about the reservoir being drained:
“They would have been betting that there would be a fire that wipes out the whole neighborhood, which of course, no one has ever seen before,” he [Martin Adams, an expert on the city’s water system] said. “It would have been a strange bet.”
Santa Ynez reservoir was empty– evidently for months?
after a covering designed to preserve water quality tore
Water quality? Is this intended to be drinking water? or to deal with fires?
Clearly, if it was empty, it wasn’t providing drinking water. Couldn’t they have just been able to keep it isolated– but then open valves in case of fire.
ormer general manager of the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, said it is unlikely to have made a significant difference in the battle against the Palisades Fire, which burned through 20,000 acres as of Friday afternoon.
Perhaps not. But 117 million gallons vs 3 million is a lot. And what’s “significant” mean here? Could they have at least saved Pacific Palisades?
Yeah… all semi rhetorical. I don’t know the answers and i’m not implying anyone does. But seriously!!
I’d think you want it to be full to help in possibly “medium” sized fires? You want to put those out too!!!!
It seems that the issue with the empty reservoir is that they put *treated* water in the reservoir. So then they have to keep it clean, hence the cover which got torn. And they can’t just let the water sit in the reservoir, hence the need to drain it.
Isn’t it normal to treat water after it is removed from a reservoir? Maybe Russell knows.
It seems it did not occur to anyone that even if the reservoir could not be used for drinking water, it would make sense to keep water in it in case it was needed for firefighting.
And of course, there is the matter of the cover still not being repaired after 11 months.
Pre-filling the reservoir out of concern about fire risk was not impossible, Adams added, but wouldn’t have made sense since nobody knew where fires would start.
It wouldn’t make sense since nobody knew where the fires would start?!!! It obviously makse sense if no one knows where the fires would start– provided you aren’t not filling something else. If you don’t know where fires are going to start, you want everything full
And afterward, water in the Santa Ynez Reservoir would have been considered nonpotable and likely wasted.
It’ would be non-potable. freaking. What?
You probably would have had to issue a boil water notice, and if you didn’t use it, the only way to get rid of it would be to dump it in the ocean
Aw. Geeh. They’d have a boil order.
Well, I guess I have trouble envisioning the trade off because we get our water for freakin’ Lake Michigan. If we need to “waste” some and later let it drain down to the Gulf of Mexico, that’s really not a problem.
A tear of several feet could obviously be temporarily repaired. I strongly suspect there were regulatory issues that prevented that from happening. A yellow throated sea smelt might sneak in the hole.
The article I think said something about possible bird poop contamination with a hole.
Either way a minor tear taking a reservoir off line for over a years seems crazy. Repair the tear and regularly test the water (which they probably already do). That’s what the government needs to explain, maybe they have a good explanation, but probably not.
From what little I know about water management in other places it does require some fortune telling. Do you release water from dams to allow for future flood control or do you store it up for future droughts? They allegedly use long term weather forecasts for these decisions and those are sketchy.
Tom Scharf,
Long term weather forecasts are sketchy. Possible candidate for understatement of the year.
One of the natural properties Sarasota County manages with controlled burning is the 24,500 acre tract called the Carton Reserve. It is used for water supply and public recreation. I was on the original technical committee that investigated it for public purchase. https://www.carltonreserve.org/
Sarasota County has an educational program to inform resident about the virtues of controlled burns:
“Fire Fest! Returns Jan. 25 to Carlton Reserve”
“Sarasota County’s Fire Fest returns on Saturday, Jan. 25 to educate and inform the community about the importance of prescribed fire to the ecosystem.”
Schedule:
10 a.m.: Event opens. Campfire circle and s’mores will be available until 2 p.m., and hayrides run every 30 minutes during the event.
11 a.m.: Sarasota K9 Search and Rescue demonstration.
11:30 a.m.: Live burn demonstration (conditions permitting).
1 p.m.: Live burn demonstration (conditions permitting).
2 p.m.: Event ends. https://www.sarasotacountyparks.com/Home/Components/News/News/7230/6700
Mike, your comment:
“Isn’t it normal to treat water after it is removed from a reservoir? Maybe Russell knows.”
My experience is that raw water is stored in reservoirs and then treated, and the finished water is stored in tanks. But all my potable water experience is here in Florida and the systems were much, much, smaller than the LA system. I would think that finished water coming out of a 100 million gallon reservoir would need some polishing, probably at least gross filtration [to remove rocks and bolts] and a re-chlorination stage.
I read somewhere that regular controlled burns were also a problem. Some species depend on occasional super hot burns to take out bigger stuff. It’s almost like they are tuned for natural fire activity.
It’s another thing entirely when you don’t want your neighborhood to burn down, but making the yellow bellied horned toad shrub disadvantaged with regular controlled burns will get the hackles up of some environmentalist and studies must be done.
Tom,
Our wilds are mostly slash pine flatwoods. The slash pine is a ‘fire climax’ species and the ecosystem requires burns to be healthy.
“Slash pine (Pinus elliottii) is a fire climax species in the Florida pinelands, meaning it’s the dominant species in a plant community that depends on frequent fires to maintain itself” https://www.fs.usda.gov/database/feis/plants/tree/pinell/all.html#:~:text=Pinus%20elliottii
Tom, Another burn mandate…
The Myakka River system cuts through the center of Sarasota County. It is Federally designated a Wild and Scenic River and has an approved management plan whose first action item is controlled burns:
[P74]
Action 1.1 – Implement a prescribed burning and fuel reduction program involving landowners along the Myakka River. DRP shall coordinate with all landowners along the Myakka River to implement a prescribed burning and fuel reduction program. Ecological burning should be utilized where appropriate to control the encroachment of hardwood vegetation into the river marsh, restore and perpetuate pine 74 flatwoods, reduce fuel levels, increase species diversity and reduce the threat of wildfire along the Myakka River. A long-range program should be established to identify the timing, location, and extent of ecological burning needed to restore and enhance vegetation within the river area and the wild and scenic protection zone, where practicable. https://myakkarivermanagement.org/Files/MWSRMS%20Final/MYAKKA%20WILD%20AND%20SCENIC%20RIVER%20MANAGEMENT%20PLAN%20-Final.pdf
Congressional mandate:
H.R.10350 – To amend the Wild and Scenic Rivers Act to designate the portion of the Myakka River lying within Sarasota County, Florida as a component of the National Wild and Scenic Rivers System, and for other purposes. https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/10350/text#:~:text=Congress%20%3E%20H.R.10350-,H.R.,2023%2D2024)%20%7C%20Get%20alerts
Michael Shellenberger has a really interesting comment on what LA and CA officials should have done:
On January 2nd, a full eight days ago, the National Weather Service urgently warned of extreme fire conditions. To drive home the point, the National Weather Service’s Los Angeles office held a press briefing warning of impending catastrophe.
On that day, Newsom and Bass should have called out the National Guard. They should have had planes and helicopters circling over Los Angeles spotting fires and putting them out immediately upon detecting them. They should have issued emergency warnings to residents. And they should have used various methods to spray water, including mobile sprinkler units alongside normal firefighter hoses, to wet down vulnerable areas.
Mike M,
Shellenberger is not getting invited to meetings of ‘the powers that be’….. even if he wouldn’t go.
Seems California, like many places, traded government competence for woke virtue signaling and ‘environmental sensitivity’. It is unfortunate that so many people around LA suffered the resulting terrible consequences. Maybe voters in California will remember this in future elections.
But it is California, so who knows.
I am reminded by the LA fires of Hurricane Katrina inundating much of New Orleans. In both cases, catastrophe was INVITED by politicians who ignored warnings of impending catastrophe.
New Orleans being inundated had been predicted decades earlier….. but nobody raised the levees surrounding the city, in spite of decades of warning. Wildfires in California are expected, not shocking. The only shocking thing is that the authorities will not do controlled burns nor clear debris from woodland areas….. nor install more water storage in a region that suffers routine drought. It is simple incompetence.
Looks like a cease-fire in Gaza remains just out of reach….. as it has for 6 months. What keeps it out of reach? Hamas insists on being able to return to power. I doubt that will change soon.
Hamas never comes back if Israel has any say in it….. and especially not with Biden’s feckless State Department about be restaffed with more sensible people. There will be no more pressure on Israel to agree to a ceasefire and no more UN Security Counsel resolutions condemning Israel.
SteveF
January 12, 2025 at 6:33 am
Looks like a cease-fire in Gaza remains just out of reach….. as it has for 6 months. What keeps it out of reach? ”
–
Hamas is not interested in making deals for the so called hostages. Its sole purpose in capturing people instead of just killing them in the night was to inflict more pain and suffering on the Jewish settlers than the actual murders themselves.
Vile and disgusting behaviour but seen as justifiable by the Gazans [also known as Hamas].
Sure they may swap a few remaining prisoners for a thousand Gazan captives but the whole aim of this exercise is to draw out the audience of the world for as long as possible to what they see is an intolerable situation.
They have succeeded and do not care if another 40000 Gazans die for the cause.
–
Brute force will not win the day.
The Israelis will exact as much revenge as they feel they need to until no hostages are left to exact revenge for.
–
Both sides will then feel mutually happy in their misery and revenge and the situation will return to normal.
–
They both need their enemies and grudges to justify their existence, actions and religions.
angech,
I am more sanguine than you are. If the targeted killing of Hamas leaders continues for long enough, there won’t be much of Hamas left. The deaths of many thousands of Gazans is terrible, of course, but it makes a repeat of Hamas policies less attractive…… the consequences of adopting those policies (essentially, Israel must not exist) are being made very clear to Gazans. A brutal lesson for sure, but one I expect will reduce support for Hamas-like policies. I expect that ultimately Israel’s neighbors will all accept its existence, and the fighting will finally stop in the Middle East. Before that, no.
SteveF,
I think Israel’s neighbors have already accepted its existance although apparently at some internal cost due to distress of some of their citizens regarding the slaughter of Gazans.
Do you think there is any basis in this owing to apprehension about Iran and siding with Israel at least passively safer in the long run for them?
“FACT: Wildland firefighters don’t use hydrants — they use water tenders. And that is what has been used to ensure continued water access. Three million gallons of water were stored in three large tanks for fire hydrants in the area before the Palisades fire, but the supply was exhausted because of the extraordinary nature of this hurricane-force firestorm.
FACT: The Governor has called for an independent investigation into the loss of water pressure to local fire hydrants and the reported unavailability of water supplies from the Santa Ynez Reservoir.
…
FACT: Reservoirs are full and water is available.”
Reservoirs can’t be both full and “reportedly” empty, I assume the government is capable of verifying the reservoir in question is empty. Fire fighters may not use hydrants to fight wildfires but they sure use them to try to keep neighborhoods from burning down.
Things are FACTS for their preferred narrative and the unpreferred narrative are labelled as “investigations” or not reported at all.
The government can and should get their say on what the situation is, but they should be expected to have a bias and their narrative shouldn’t be given such privilege as to shutdown other narratives. If a government is a straight shooter for a long time they will garner credibility in the same way other sources have to.
I have got to say, I didn’t see Fetterman as the new Manchin when he was elected, but that seems to be the case.
The intellectually lazy position of talking to the opposition is the same as agreeing with them has got to go. Fetterman is my new favorite Democrat, although I’m sure he mostly still votes the party line.
Tom,
My understanding is the three, 1Mgallon reservoirs were full at the start of the fire. However, the one 117M gallon reservoir (Santa Ynez Reservoir) was empty. at the start and remains.
During fire fighting, the 1M gallon reservoirs were either empty or functionally empty during periods of firefighting. The water pressure dropped and hydrants were not operational.
Stating “FACT: Reservoirs are full and water is available.”” is deeply misleading wrt to the situation since 3 million gallons is much less than 117+3 million gallons. Yes, the 3 million were full and probably are now. If people returned to their homes in Pacific Palisades they can probably turn their faucets on and get potable water.
Fire hydrants do exist in the Pacific Palisades, and they are intended to be used there. Water tenders are used where there are no working hydrants. In context, the reference to Water Tenders and fire fighting is deeply misleading.
This is the type of “fact check” that makes people sneer at the “fact checker”. That said: it is a fact check from a politician who might potentially share blame for this. Even if he does not, likely politicians in his party are getting blame. So. Whatevs.
I do not see much changing in CA vis a vis the wild fires. The left wing politicians and voters in CA have no compelling reason to change how government operates. The idea that government must be involved in all aspects of life and that any mistakes for which government is blamed is merely right-wing propaganda is much the indoctrinated and majority thought. That thinking is not, unfortunately, relegated to CA.
In a more free market environment insurance rates would be based on what communities are doing to prevent catastrophic fire events and foregoing such precautions would result in very high rates. This process puts a market price on preventing a catastrophe and living in an area that is prone to such events.
The word I hear out of CA and it’s leftwing protectors is that there was nothing that could have been done to avoid the catastrophe. While this may or may not be the case given how governments operate, it is in fact an admission that there was no plan in place to fail and putting for all to see that it was a failure of government. Unfortunately it is not going to be seen by those who hold that government is the be all and end all.
Kenneth,
Things don’t change until they change. Yes, the current malfunctioning political system seems entrenched, but there will come a point where people say “enough, already”. The wildfires might well bring that about, at least for Angelenos if not for other Californians.
Note that Nathan Hochman defeated the incumbent Democrat L.A. County DA in a landslide. He ran as an independent, but previously ran for state attorney general as a Republican. The voters had finally had enough and went against form.
The typical argument if CA was Republican would have been “if you had more government then that disaster would not have happened”.
These events undermine the broad argument that government can solve all problems if only the voters would allow it.
Since it’s a deep blue city in a deep blue state with a blue President the usual strategy of go up the line of governance until you find somebody from the opposing party and blame them can’t be executed. You are left with “don’t politicize this” or “it couldn’t be stopped”.
Kenneth
The word I hear out of CA and it’s leftwing protectors is that there was nothing that could have been done to avoid the catastrophe.
Plausibly, there was nothing that could have been done on short notice. That doesn’t mean CA didn’t make long term mistakes that need not have been made.
The Santa Ynez reservoir being empty is emblematic. And even if a full reservoir would not have been enough for this fire, that doesn’t mean that additional reservoirs would have been out of the question if fire fighting had been a priority over the past two decades.
Also: planning over long term can involve building code designing in fire breaks. Bergen Norway has rather impressive wide streets. Why? Fire breaks!
“When walking around Bergen, “allmenningen” is a word you’ll see often. It refers to a wide, open street designed to prevent fires from spreading rapidly between buildings. Most of Bergen’s main streets end in this long word all-men-ing-en. “
Of course there is always the possibility of “too large” of a fire. But having water available, and designing in fire breaks is something that can be done long term. Fire resistant building codes can help. (I have no idea what Pacific Palisades codes are for fire resistance.)
If all the houses were like this one that survived, not only would more survive a fire, the fire wouldn’t spread as fast
Potential building codes are fire resistant siding and even more restrictive landscaping. I think roofing codes are already good enough although everything burns when it gets hot enough.
Primarily in this scenario it is preventing the spread from wind blown burning embers.
From what I have seen in FEMA after action reports from FL hurricanes they are pretty good at identifying the problems and recommending solutions. It is up to the legislature to take action and then changes have to be phased in over many decades as existing structures are typically grandfathered in because of economic impact.
It is a real unacknowledged option that CA would just effectively say losing 30,000 structures a decade to fire is tolerable in order to keep infrastructure and housing costs lower.
In these cases like CA wild fires, responsibities and consequences have to be established and unfortunately that is not something to which governments submit. Oh, there are elections, but in states like CA and almost all large cities that means the same party and maybe different politicians if things go really bad, but the same political philosophy prevails.
Too many people look for the government to bail them out and particularly so in catastrophes. Some of those areas that are developed in CA and some with very expensive homes and with very wealthy owners appear to be disasters waiting to happen. In a truly free market I do not see how the insurance would be affordable unless some very expensive mitigations occurred like constant brush removal and owner responsibitiy and provisions for fire prevention and fighting. Under those conditions the correct and involved people have a stake in the outcomes, whereas like I see way too often government officials appear to use catastrophic events to pat one another’s backs. You never hear what the corrective action might be when what is required is often immediately apparent.
If individuals want to play roulette with their property it should be made damn well clear to them that they are responsible either through very high insurance premiums, self insurance or bankruptcy.
Wow!
Californians took matters into their own hands using a pump, a generator, and emptying two pools to save their neighborhood from the LA wildfires: "We have to give all the credit to our father, about 3 to 4 months ago was adamant about having one of these [pool pumps] for fire… pic.twitter.com/whQmjjwEVR
The fog of war, but I estimate 12,000 structures burned in LA. Still not certain, but probably 10 times that many structures were destroyed in North Carolina. The people of Appalachia aren’t getting media attention and FEMA has been slow to respond. I want FEMA to focus on North Carolina and let them woke Liberals in California wait their turn.
john Ferguson,
Among neighbors, I include the Palestinians, Iranians, and Lebanese, etc. There are plenty of people in the middle East still refusing to accept Israel.
SteveF,
But the governments?
John, Your comment:
“But the governments?”
The gang of muslim terrorists controlling Syria could hardly be called a government.
And Lebanon, who knows who’s in charge.
There is a great deal that could have been done short term to prevent or mitigate the catastrophe. Some of it probably would have needed a few weeks or months lead time, but some could have been done even after the dire warnings issued on Jan. 2.
The simplest would have been regular police sweeps through the areas where homeless people were known to start fires.
That could have been supplemented by helicopters and/or drones surveilling the brush lands looking for signs of fire before the fire could spread too far.
They could have had firefighting aircraft deployed, fully fueled and loaded with water. At least a couple could have had crews at the ready so that they could respond in minutes to a fire. And if that was not enough to snuff out the just-started fire, the rest could have quickly joined in.
They could have had the National Guard called up to secure problem areas and to be ready to help people safely evacuate.
Maybe have water tankers and pumps ready to help get water to the storage tanks to keep them from running out.
Probably other stuff as well.
L.A.’s political leadership failed on time sales ranging from days to decades.
Russell,n
I was thinking of Saudi, Qatar, the Arab Emirates, Jordan, but not at this time probably a majority of their citizens.
We’re headed for Cairo in the morning.
John,
Have a safe trip.
If you want me to let everyone know your progress, give me your flights I’ll tag them.
What could california or los angeles have done to prevent the pacific palisades fire.
A Supervisor from the Yorba Linda water district identified many things that could have been done but weren’t. Many very stupid environmental rules, including one by the state that prevented people and local governments from burning the brush. No auditions to the water system have been made since the 1970s even though california’spopulation has doubled. Backup generators using natural gas are strongly discouraged and on and on with about 10 ways the system has failed. Interestingly, the human consumption of water is something like 5 million acre feet while california in a typical year gets 200 million acre feed of rain. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=yH19B6dMXx0&list=PL0rsb5lAC10h_jHAnfScODAd0x_wsjfCD&index=1&pp=iAQB
john ferguson,
I hope you have a save trip to Egypt. At least the weather isn’t too hot this time of year. 😉
It is true there is a great deal of hostility toward Israel among Muslim populations, especially in the middle East; most of those same people think anyone trying to leave Islam should be put to death. I doubt that is a coincidence.
Israel is a modern wealthy democracy, and not because it is rich in natural resources. Most Eastern Muslims live in relatively poor autocracies, often in spite of huge natural resource wealth. Culture is destiny. Until and unless the culture in Middle Eastern Muslim countries changes, acceptance of Israel by individual Muslims will be limited, even if their governments do accept Israel to avoid military conflict.
Hi Russell,
When I’ve got threshold wits gathered let me send you the flight numbers of the Cairo>Aman and Aman>Heathrow flights. Can you record the flight paths? I ask because it looks easy to miss Israel flying Cairo >Aman, but maybe not Aman>Heathrow.
Otherwise it’s tampa>newark>vienna>cairo
thanks, john
John,I think I can record your flight paths. I will need the flight numbers.
I have been contemplating how I would have handled a catastrophe that wiped out my entire property. A catastrophe that wipes out an entire community would create problems many time worse than where only your house burned to the ground.
I have not had a mortgage for many years and have increased my property insurance deductibles to reduce my insurance premiums. I have never had a claim less than $10,000. In my location I would figure the chance of a catastrophic event wiping out the entire community to be very small. My strategy would be to use the insurance to rebuild on the same property and live off site during the rebuild or maybe even use it as an opportunity to travel.
What I have not researched is the situation facing some of the victims of the CA wildfires that destroyed their property and local community and who were paying on mortgages. Rebuilding in that case to a former state of living would require close to an entire rebuild of the community. I assume that would require a much longer time for moving back into to your property. If the property is mortgaged would those payments be covered by insurance for the duration of the rebuilding plus off site living expenses? Would insurance allow a lump sum payment to a property owner that would not be used to rebuild? Would the land property have anywhere near its former value? I would think a first instinct would be to find another location to live and resolve the former location to minimize the loses.
These considerations would, and especially so if not previously considered, create much anxiety in addition to sadness of the personal property lost that evoke powerful memories. I cannot comprehend what those people are enduring.
Ron DeSantis… “Florida must lead”….
Today, I called for a special session of the Florida legislature the week of January 27 to prepare Florida to lead on the Trump Administration’s deportation program. We will allocate resources and ensure state and local officials in Florida are supporting these efforts.
We have no time to waste. Florida must lead.
It definitely brings a huge amount of stress to peoples lives. It can trigger health problems. Fires are sudden and can be complete 100% losses of everything. Put the dogs in the car and bolt.
I assume the insurance pays off the cost of structure and sometime contents. There would be a lien on the house from the mortgage company which would likely be paid off directly by the insurance. The homeowner would then take whatever is left over, get another loan, and rebuild. Newsom said he is lifting environmental regulations for those in the rebuild areas so that should help a little bit.
I can tell you from the recent hurricane experience here that permitting and getting contractors / builders in line is a burden. Some people just live in an RV on their driveway and others rent a house or live with friends / relatives. Some people get the house livable ASAP and live in it during repairs. Some people just bail out completely and sell their house as is. It’s a windfall for contractors so one would not expect things to be very competitive.
Our relatively minor home insurance claim from the hurricane has just been finalized and that took about 3 months. They sent us an estimate that was 12 pages of (intentionally) indecipherable numbers. For the big dollar stuff it probably takes a lot longer as the insurance industry is notorious for being difficult with large claims.
“State Farm said last year it would not renew 69% of its property policies in the Pacific Palisades.”
I see a big bonus coming to at least one employee at State Farm.
The WSJ reported that some of those areas were not just well to do. Before the property values skyrocketed, homes could be bought for sum’s affordable by middle income earners. And with CA’s Prop 13(?), they weren’t driven out by property tax increases. Those people may be SOL. Even if they could afford to rebuild, I suspect that a new house would have unaffordable taxes.
Tom and DeWitt make a couple of interesting points here. If the insurance pays off the mortgage of a likely lower interest loan, the rebuilder must secure a higher interest loan to rebuild. The original loan would have been for land and added property, but the land remains after the property is destroyed. That might complicate negotiations all way around. The ratio of the built property to land values can vary greatly with area. It can make selling as a tear down a reasonable proposition.
DeWitt, did the WSJ article say that a rebuilt house does not obtain the tax considerations of Prop 13?
Dewitt, Kenneth, Tom,
Here’s the plan:
1 Sell your homesite in Pacific Palisades to a sleazy real estate developer
2 Buy a waterfront lot in Florida
3 Build a big house
4 Buy a big boat
5 Put the rest of the money in the bank
AFAICT the bank gets the insurance payout first. You do have to pay mortgage payments but apparently there are mandated pauses in FEMA disaster areas, a year announced by Fannie/Freddie/FHA for the LA fires.
Looks like most insurance policies cover alternate living expenses, rent on a temporary place, etc.
It gets vague after that related to rebuilding pertaining to whether you could maintain a previous low interest loan or not. Some people state the bank will pay the new contractors directly and others seems to state you can just take the resulting net payout and do it yourself.
Some inusrance policies have a “rebuild only” clause which forces you to rebuild after a total loss but that is not allowed in CA, a “non recourse” foreclose only state.
So if you are under water on your loan in CA then the bank takes the empty lot and you walk away. The lenders are motivated to not foreclose on burned out lots so they usually are flexible.
Very funny, Russell. I assume that would be CA home site without the house.
There was a funny line in today’s WSJ on the editorial page by Allysia Finley writing about the left turning CA into Paradise Lost were she says, ” you can lead CA progressives to water but you can’t make them think.”
She wrote that the fire department budget did not decrease because the fire fighter union received pay increases of around $20,000 per fire fighter. That was for members already making $ 200,000 a year plus $90,000 in benefits. Those fire fighters could retire to FL with Russell’s list sans the boat.
And best of all, Russell, if your financial exodus from California involves fraud, if you are convicted but already put the money in a house in Florida, they can’t take it away from you.
What? Not Golf of America? Trump must be slipping faster than we’d realized.
John,
“ And best of all, Russell, if your financial exodus from California involves fraud, if you are convicted but already put the money in a house in Florida, they can’t take it away from you.”
I did not know that! Maybe that is why Trump bought Mar a Lago.
john ferguson: “Golf of America? ”
Is that some new tournament that Trump is sponsoring?
We employed a gentleman from Califonia who lived in a $10 million house in Palm Beach, and that was 1992. He was involved in an SEC violation which could have had that sort of value. He had worked for Ashton-Tate (dbase2 IIRC) and his part of the haul had been the $10 million. He was sharp on Sun’s so he worked for us to have something to do until the thing blew over, And it did blow over. I think he wound up working for investors in Boston.
Alive and ge well in Cairo. They had a huge sliding gate and a whole lot of armed guards at the hotel, our van was sniffed for explosives, we were passed through metal detectors as was our luggage and I had to agree that my camera bag with the 3 sony’s did not have a video camera. I couldn’t understand what the problem with video cameras was when it was explained to me.
John,
I saw a video a while back on how the authorities in Egypt can be very sensitive to photography. Apparently the locals need money for “permits” and so forth. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8LzuZrkEY18
I wonder how they deal with cameras that also do video comparable to many video cams?
I’m counting on technical ignorance to protect me from their discovery that these things do great video. I don’t do video but would point out that someone who is shooting video is prety obvious, extended shots or pans.
I did a moderate amount of research on shooting in Egypt and discovered that in supporting encouragment of tourism they have loosened the strictures of which there use to be many. Now, in most cases shooting for non-comercial purposes is ok almost everywhere but not anything which would show some aspect of Egypt in a bad light. I take this to be no really poor people and no messy scenes- and they do have some messes here.
The two big sony’s can look “professional” but in cases where this might be a problem, I use the A6000 with its pancake lens, or with my back to the wall, the iphone.
Yes, I know everyone thinks that great shots can be taken with a better Iphone, and I agree, but I sometimes like to control depth of field which as far as I can see cannot be done with an Iphone. This last thing is one of the reasons I went to cameras with settable f-stops from point and shoot along with being able to mount the old nikkor and leitz lenses.
John,
Take care. You are a lot braver than I.
From Dana Perino:
“Seniors are facing the biggest Medicare drug premium spike in history this month because Democrats took money from the program to fund EV tax credits – then tried to cover it up until after the election “
I am not sure this is related, but my Eliquis copay had been about $45 / month for years…. Yesterday it jumped to $140. [Same insurance plan.] https://x.com/mattdizwhitlock/status/1878944871261610418
In 2019 California Eco-Nuts halted a Palisades fire prevention project because they tramped on a weed:
“California’s eco-bureaucrats halted a wildfire prevention project near the Pacific Palisades to protect an endangered shrub.
In 2019, the LA Department of Water and Power (LADWP) began replacing nearly 100-year-old power line poles cutting through Topanga State Park, when the project was halted within days by conservationists outraged that federally endangered Braunton’s milkvetch plants had been trampled during the process.” https://nypost.com/2025/01/14/us-news/california-bureaucrats-halted-pacific-palisades-fire-safety-project-to-save-endangered-shrub/
Background blur is the thing that screams “professional” more than anything else and it focuses attention where it needs to be. Phone’s fake blur still looks bad. You can’t fix the physics of small optics, but you can try to simulate it. For some situations you definitely don’t want that blur though and phones have an advantage keeping everything in better focus.
I got the feeling that some “authorities” were just scammers with fake badges extorting the tourists.
It’s a bit strange that in this day and age that people think they can control what pictures get taken or that people with an agenda aren’t going to get their pictures one way or the other. I assume the citizens take plenty of unflattering pictures. Perhaps they realized the bad press from trying to control bad press wasn’t worth the futile effort.
Kenneth,
I didn’t read the whole article so I don’t know if it mentioned Prop 13. Quick research says that damage and destruction can get you relief from property taxes based on the assessment prior to the devastation. But in the event of destruction and rebuilding, particularly in the event of total devastation, I don’t see how the property won’t be reassessed at current value because it’s new construction without some action by the CA government. And there are a lot of people who don’t like Prop 13.
Location, location, location.
My small house on Cape Cod (about 1000 sq ft) is currently valued north of $800K because it sits on a small lot in a quite residential area… 90 meters from the beach on Nantucket Sound. As they say, God is not making more of this kind of lot. I put the value of the structure (circa 1920) at not more than $150K, so $650 for a very small lot, with considerable restrictions on what you might build.
The people in California who’s houses were destroyed still have tremendous value in the land their housed sat on. They should sell and move to beautiful Florida. 😉
Hi Tom Scharf,
The stadium south of Atlanta where the Harris ralley we attended was held had a big sign listing all of the things one couldn’t enter with, guns, knives, boomerangs, etc. Among them were professional cameras. There were all manner of secrete service types thereand when we went through the posessions inspection, one asked another if the professional camera restriction applied to the ralley. They decided it didn’t as long as they could try my Sony A7ii with the 24-240 zoom. it got passed around and the four of them really liked it. the 24-240 zoom is not the shaprest lens i won, but for shots which are shownon our 60 inch tv, plenty good enough.
A lens coould not be longer than 8 inches at Tropicana while it was still functioning. I have the F8x500 catadioptric which of course is 20 inch focal length. This time I got a woman who looked at it, undertood the focal length and that the physical length was about 8 inches, laughed and let me through.
When I lived in Chicago in the ’70s I ran into a guy with a Canon F1 kit all of which was painted babuy blue. guy worked for Tribune and had done it beause he pretty much used up the cameras anyway, mechanical camera do wear out, and the blue paint made them theftproof. he siad it was like Japan ony in the US you needed the paint. He could leave one on a park-bench for a couple of hours and it would sill be there when he got back. We agreed that camera thieves generally knew exaclty what they were doing and understood that none of the usual places would pawn a bright blue camera.
it’s 5:30am here, 9 hours ahead of original 13 colonies time. We’re prepping for our tour of Alexandria including a mosque I liked the looks of. it takes 3 hours to drive there. we will be going past some mechanically irrigated fiels which look like big circles on google earth. Have a look, there’s a lot of them.
Not braver Russell, maybe less thoughtful.
Enjoy Egypt!
many thanks for the continuing grace of our collagues here who don’t squawk about my many misspellings and some grammatical mistakes. Thank you.
it must be some form of digital dyslexia. I know I send the correct signals out, but they seem to get scrambled at the finger end of the bus.
thanks again for your patience. And yes, I could be more careful editing. thanks for not reminding me of that either. same problem, editing introduces different errors, not necessarily a positive activity in whole.
I tend to blame misspelling on spellcheck. For example, unless I’m paying close attention, it will change Scharf to Schaefer. And it keeps trying to make the W in my first name lower case. Also it capitalized the j in your first name.
DeWitt,
I only wish all my misspellings were due to spell check. Some are– especially on the phone!
john ferguson
January 14, 2025 at 9:55 pm
john, your misspellings create a youthful image. Interpretation of your writings has not been difficult and only cause an occasional second take.
My letter jumbles, I think, are the result of writing at the same pace as in my more youthful years with a brain that is showing its age. As long as I can compensate ( some might say fake it) I am happy.
,
Given how teed up the legacy media was for Hegseth’s hearing and the lack of tabloid screaming outrage after it was completed I guess it must have gone well.
I didn’t follow it but his TV experience probably helped him.
Fox News had quite a few clips from the Hegseth hearing. Based on those, he was awesome. And after the hearing, Joni Ernst endorsed him.
I have a feeling the Israel / Gaza ceasefire is going to stick. Hamas is pretty much exhausted, Hezbollah has bowed out and Iran’s axis of resistance is in tatters.
Hamas gambled and now has little to show for it except for a lot of dead leadership, Gaza is rubble, and 40K+ citizens dead.
Netanyahu amazingly looks like he may survive this politically, did not see that coming.
If history is any judge they will be back at it again once this memory fades in a decade or so. The Palestinians would be wise to get some less nihilistic leadership but I don’t see that coming either, but who knows?
As with most wars it is less a question of who won but who lost more. I think that answer is pretty clear at the moment.
I detect a slight stylistic change in official statements.
WSJ:
“Incoming Trump national security adviser Mike Waltz, previewing how the next administration sees the problem, said it was imperative to get a resolution of the Gaza conflict and encourage a “finally reformed” Palestinian Authority.
But he expressed skepticism about the ability to moderate extremist movements in the region. “Hopefully you can reform the next generation,” he said, “but sometimes you just have to put bombs on foreheads.”
Russell,
Out of high school in the early 70’s I worked for my uncle for a time helping to install dozens of 1/4 mile radius rotating sprinkler systems along the Colombia River in Washington and Oregon.
Turned desert into instant farm land with 1/2 mile diameter “crop circles “
When I went to join my uncle in Washington state, I imagined green forests. Imagine my shock on finding myself in desert as bleak as anything I experienced In Arizona.
The sprinkler equipment would be dropped off along the 1/4 mile length of assembly. Almost every control box I picked up along this install had a scorpion inside that had to be shook out first. What fun.
Ed Forbes,
Being from the midwest, imagine my confusion when people in WA state called the way we grow corn in Illinois “dry land farming” or something like that. The alternative to “dry land” was irrigated. So, dry land farming is done in locations that get enough rain to not irrigate! 🙂
I think that “dry land farming” refers to farming in areas that are too dry for traditional farming but that can be farmed without irrigation if you know how to do it. So not Illinois.
MikeM,
Perhaps the guys who decreed what I was describing was dry land farming didn’t know the difference. I just thought, “Who’d a thunk?”
I should admit that I can screw it up without any help from spellcheck.
They closed the tollroad to Alexandria this morning due to fog. It would have been nothing to those of us from Illinois, but there they fell on this cure after thousands of serious accidents by drivers that pressed on at their usual high speed withouf concern about collisions.
It was down about 3 hours, we were helped by the gendarmes to a 180 and visited a couple of astonishing pyrmaids south of Gizeh. more detail to follow maybe tomorrow. we did make it to alexandria eventually , saw the new library which is marvelous. and were detoured from a superhighway through a very corwded street market which was pretty challenging. they drive vry diffently here. Jan says similar to Bangkok, but much faster. Again more detail later.
Seems Trump’s threat of ‘there will be Hell to pay’ as motivated some movement WRT Hamas and Israel.
We will see what happens, but one thing is certain: Israel is not going to accept Hamas returning to power in Gaza.
I expect Netanyahu to survive. Seems the reports of his imminent (political) death were greatly exaggerated. Of course, those reports were mainly from the usual ‘progressive’ suspects, who all hate anybody who is even slightly to the right of Che’. Netanyahu is to those folks probably more evil than Trump and his 70 million voters!
So did anyone listen to Biden’s farewell address? I didn’t. He seems irrelevant except for the booby traps his staff are laying for Trump. We can’t be rid of him soon enough.
Nope. I watched some episodes of “Killing Eve” on Netflix.
He still seems to be in Angry Joe mode warning us of “dangers to democracy” and oligarchies. I don’t think many people are having buyer’s remorse so far.
Tom Scharf, Not having bought, I think i lack access to buyers’ remorse, but in some respects I’m optimistic. Maybe I’m starting to see some of things that you guys knew all along.
Mike M. I coldn’t agree with you more. Biden cannot disappear nearly soone enough for me.
He was jerk when I had to deal with his office in the ealry ’90s and he’s never improved.
Blue Origin’s (Bezos) large New Glenn rocket makes it to orbit on its first try which is an accomplishment, They also are trying to land and reuse the first stage like SpaceX but they lost the first stage at some point during the attempt. SpaceX took a few tries to get that landing part perfected.
Looks like SpaceX will have some competition within a year or so as they qualify the rocket.
New Glenn is larger than the Falcon 9, smaller than the Falcon Heavy, and much smaller than Starship.
Up next, Starship test flight #7 Thursday at 5 pm EST.
Tom Scharf,
It is interesting that the Starship is supposed to put 100+ metric tons into low Earth orbit. Aside from putting a bunch of 2-ton Starlink satellites in orbit at the same time and pursuing Musk’s more grandiose plans for Mars travel, I wonder how much demand there will be for placing gigantic payloads into orbit.
WRT Blue Origin: Is there some unmet demand for a payload size between the Falcon 9 and the Falcon Heavy? If so, I haven’t heard of it. Of course, competition may lower the prices for launching the SpaceX rockets, cutting into SpaceX’s profit margins, which are likely pretty high right now. But Bezos seems to be arriving at the party late.
The only demand for a significant number of Starship launches is the moon and Mars. Even so, there isn’t a huge need in that class.
The big payoff for satellite launches is geosynchronous equatorial orbit for communication satellites. And the bigger the Geo-comm satellite the better. Would Starship really be necessary? Probably not – but New Glenn may be the right size for the time being. For comparison: Falcon 9 can put 8,300 kg to GTO, New Glenn can put 13,000 kg, Falcon Heavy can put 26,700 kg, and Starship can place 91,000 kg. Data from wikipedia and launch mfg pages. Obviously the New Glenn and Starship are tentative given they aren’t yet operational.
It will be interesting to see how the landscape changes once NG becomes operational. It also will be interesting to see how NASA adjusts to having a Commercial Crew guy leading it under the next administration.
The wildest proposed application is this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rocket_Cargo
100 tons delivered point-to-point on the Earth’s surface in under an hour. Hard to believe that makes economic sense.
Ultimately what really matters is cost per kg to orbit. Starship will blow the doors off that equation if it succeeds. Large payload, fully reusable, quick turnaround. Before reusability the cost of the fuel was only 10% of the cost of a rocket launch.
SpaceX routinely launches “rideshare” missions on the Falcon 9 where multiple different satellites are launched at the same time. They just need to be in similar orbits. This has been a big competitive problem for the small to medium launch business.
New Glenn’s main advantage is a gigantic payload bay (in area), and also being somebody, anybody, besides SpaceX. Their second stage uses liquid hydrogen which is bit more efficient. The government wants to supports two independent launch businesses for national security purposes.
The bulk of the launch business upcoming seems to be launching large satellite constellations which fits Starship. Starlink, Starshield (military), Amazon’s Kiper, the EU wants one but on their rockets and China is deploying one. Good luck earth based astronomers with all the optical clutter …
The thinking my be that large single military payloads are too vulnerable but it takes 10+ years to go from design to orbit.
Some telecom satellites are quite happy to not have to spend huge amounts of money designing their satellites for low mass and smallish size. What low cost per kg to orbit does is remove some of the massive NRE it takes to design these things.
It’s no secret that Musk has a bigtime Mars fetish. It’s been a dream of his forever and it drives a lot of what he is doing. AFAICT he is a true believer in putting a colony on Mars.
Musk 13 years ago on 60 min, he is obviously emotionally committed. He breaks up when talking about former Apollo astronauts dissing SpaceX. https://youtu.be/23GzpbNUyI4?t=652
IMO, asking about the market for reduced cost for getting mass into space is similar to asking what the market might be for computers back before microcomputers took off. The Internet tells me Watson reportedly claimed ‘I think there is a world market for about five computers.’
Having the ability to put things into space cheaply may make market opportunities possible that have been cost prohibitive until now. Or not.
Tom Scharf wrote: ” What low cost per kg to orbit does is remove some of the massive NRE it takes to design these things.”
Good point. The cost of building the big telecom satellite is much greater than the launch cost. So simply having access to a greater payload capacity might be more important than cost per kg.
‘I think there is a world market for about five computers.’
I think Watson was told that but didn’t believe it. So he decided to get IBM into the computer business.
Mike M.
January 15, 2025 at 1:34 pm
I think that “dry land farming” refers to farming in areas that are too dry for traditional farming but that can be farmed without irrigation if you know how to do it. So not Illinois.
That is the correct defintion. My grandparents both at age 18 were located from IL to eastern MT by their parents to homestead. It was once 160 acres for a homestead until the government and farmers realized that dry farming was not sustainable at that acreage and thus it was increased to 320 acres – and that is what my grandparents farmed on my grandfather’s homestead. I think my grandmother’s homestead went to her family. They came back to IL because MT winters would not allow my father to get to school. They retained the homestead until they died after which my father and aunt sold it.
There is some irrigation in that local area using water from the Yellowstone river.
I remember reading somewhere, somewhen that you can’t irrigate forever because of salt buildup in the soil. It takes ever increasing amounts of water to keep the salt down low enough to grow stuff. Aquifers get drained faster than they get restored and, if using river water, the people downstream are not too thrilled with the high salt content and low flow.
Also, nowadays if you’re farming less than 4,000 acres in places like MT, you’re considered a hobby farmer.
Has Gov. DeWine announced who will be replacing Vance in the Senate? I think not. So what is taking so long? The election was over ten weeks ago.
Excitement guaranteed. A second successful crazy booster catch and Starship explodes spectacularly as it approaches orbit. That second stage needs a lot of work.
CNN Reporter: “We gonna nail this Zachary Young mf**ker.”
CNN Producer: “A CNN producer admitted that he thinks Zachary Young has a “punchable face” in a deposition played in court on Tuesday.”
These are things journalists actually wrote down. This one is likely going to cost CNN a lot of money. CNN is near the end of a defamation trial over a story it did in 2022. The trial is in Florida. The short story is they willfully misrepresented what this guy was doing, trying to evacuate Afghan civilians in 2022. After the story he lost all his business opportunities. It’s plausible enough.
Bad things can happen when you are moving fast and breaking things. SpaceX “lost”, AKA exploded ,the upper stage of their launch today.
Still, the second catch of a 300+ ft long rocket coming back to Earth, retro-replusive, was impressive. Few (actually, nobody) could pull that off.
Tom Scharf,
“This one is likely going to cost CNN a lot of money. ”
The insane thing is that they didn’t settle this case (with generous compensation for the plaintiff) long ago. It is almost like CNN is run by lunatics…. OK, maybe CNN is just run by progressives; which seems almost the same thing as lunatics. This is going to leave a nasty mark on CNN’s finances.
I keep wondering: what the Hell is wrong with these people? None of it makes any sense to me. It is almost like they can’t rationally evaluate what is happening. They are doomed.
I think Young sued for $1B, ha ha. Journalists had a bird when ABC settled with Trump recently and that may have been a factor in going to trial. They might learn why settling is sometime wise.
It’s a bit odd that journalists who feast on inappropriate comments written down by others did this. A bit arrogant. The trial is in the NW Florida panhandle. Trump won Bay county by 48%. Good luck CNN.
Tom Scharf,
Young is going to be a very rich man for the rest of his life, courtesy of a giant news organization that can’t deal with reality. As I said above: I think they are doomed. To the extent he is still cognizant: Ted Turner will be dismayed.
Mike,
So far DeWine hasn’t said anything on who is replacing Vance.
The latest ‘front runner’ is John Husted – Ohio’s Lieutenant Governor
One other impact of the lower cost to orbit is that if the reliability of the launch system can be improved significantly (and right now it is pretty reliable), then the insurance rates on Geocomm satellite launches can be reduced significantly. These are multi billion dollar investments, and have huge insurance premiums on them.
So reliable launches paired with a repair/replace capability on orbit could have a major effect on the economic landscape.
And Mark Bofill is right – we really don’t know what the future satellite market will look like. The good thing is that the market will figure it out.
The incompetence of CNN’s attorney in the Young defamation case is almost beyond belief. CNN lawyer falsely accused Young of being a liar and was forced to apologize by the judge. Here is Turley summary:
“Plaintiff’s entire case, sitting right there, is that after the publications, he couldn’t get any work…Mr. Young knew, when he filed this lawsuit that he had entered into a new consulting agreement with a government contractor one month after CNN’s publication. This entire lawsuit was a fraud on this court. It was a fraud on CNN. .. But when his came up in discovery, CNN’s counsel asked Mr. Young about the Helios connection, and he completely lied in his deposition. Over and over again, he made up some incredible ruse that Helios just had his security clearance because it was a company that held security clearances. It makes no sense. He knew at that time that he had a consulting agreement with Helios Global and he didn’t disclose it. It was an outright lie.”
DeanP wrote: “So far DeWine hasn’t said anything on who is replacing Vance. ”
That is what I thought, also confirmed by the fact that Trump is now pushing Ramaswamy for the position. But it seems to me that DeWine is committing political malpractice by acting as if Vance’s resignation was a surprise. I do not understand why people are not screaming at him for not already having made a decision.
Mike M: I don’t want understand why people are not yelling at governor dewine for political malpractice.
There is a complicated political dynamic going on here in the sense that Trump has not been very supportive of Dewine and Dewine feels no obligation to Trump. Personally, I think that Husted would be the best choice because Vivek, although I support many of his policies, can be tone deaf and has a tendency to stick his foot in his mouth and needs more political seasoning. If Husted is appointed there is virtually no chance that he will lose the next election, but Vivek with his insensitivity to the voters as a whole (consider his statement about screech being a decent role model and his previous statements that people under age 25 should not be allowed to vote) could possibly stick his foot in his mouth and lose the next election.
DeSantis selected the FL Attorney General, an elected office, Ashley Moody to replace Senator Rubio. She has been in and out the news for prosecuting things like vaccine mandates, masking requirements, immigration, and so forth. Basically faithfully executing DeSantis’s agenda.
She backed much of Trump’s agenda good and bad.
And in another good sign … nobody cares that she is a woman.
I may be wrong but I think we are exiting the era of gotcha statements and behaviors being disqualifying for political office.
Perhaps this is due to social media and having everyone’s life recorded and documented. Tolerance for occasional deviant behavior is much higher. The coin of the influencer realm is attention and you get attention by making bold statements and hot takes. Trump took this model to politics and shattered the staid robot politician model. Some of the newer House members are … well … eccentric.
The only way to not have any skeletons in your closet now is by taking no risks (or by always being right about everything ha ha). This will no longer get you elected going forward.
I just noticed something a little odd. Here are the 16 Vice Presidents since WW2 sorted into two groups. Most recent first.
Those who were previously senators:
Harris
Biden
Gore
Quayle
Mondale
Humphrey
Johnson
Barkley
Truman
All but one have something else in common.
Those who were NOT previously senators:
Pence
Cheney
Bush
Rockefeller
Ford
Agnew
Nixon
They all have something else in common.
Vance, like Quayle, will break the pattern.
Addition: I meant something else besides being VPs and either former senators or not. But I need to add sex to the list.
Tom Scharf, wouldn’t you agree that a skeletonin the closet isn’t a problem if it doesn’t bother anopugh people? Maybe a skeleton in one persons closet is a doilie in someone else’s.
Mike M.,
hmm…trying to figure out what the common links are…
But, I believe Nixon was a Senator prior to becoming VP.
I guess some skeletons are bigger than others. There is certainly some level of proven impropriety that will get you eliminated but accusations don’t move the needle. Kavanaugh was gang rapist after all.
Trump’s closet overfloweth, but he leaves the door open. Trump went through a circus show trial on Jan 6th and a NYC criminal trial and that didn’t move the needle. I’d just say the thresholds are different now.
What matters? I guess Lynn Cheney knows that tribal loyalty matters. Having the right enemies matter. In my view DC worked better when it was boring. Even talking to the other side is now tantamount to being a traitor, this must happen in secret.
I listened to a couple podcasts from both sides on Hegseth’s hearing and they both agree on one thing, they could care less what his defense policies are. Tattoos are important though.
HaroldW: “I believe Nixon was a Senator prior to becoming VP.”
You are correct. I knew he was in the House, but I had forgotten that he was also a Senator.
So Vance will be the 3rd post-WW2 Republican to be both Senator and VP. Still curious that all 8 Dem VP’s had been Senators and all 6 non-Senators who became VP were Republicans.
Unless I screwed up something else. 🙂
Tom Scharf wrote: “Even talking to the other side is now tantamount to being a traitor”.
Well, they do it all the time on Bret Baier’s Common Ground segment on Special Report. But it was disturbing to see the Dems getting mad at Fetterman for going to Mar-a-Lago.
Mike M.
Oh – Dem vs. Rep. I was over-thinking it.
So Zachary Young gets $5M from CNN, plus some unspecified amount in punitive damages. The two sides made a deal on the latter before the jury got to it.
I am guessing that the punitive damages were a LOT more than the actual damages because CNN would have been scared of getting really nailed and Young would have had no reason to settle for a mere $10M or so.
HaroldW,
I guess Trump can just enact Constitutional Amendments too, that should be very interesting, ha ha.
Mike M,
CNN must has put up some SERIOUS money here because I have a feeling the Bay County jury was just contemplating whether they had enough room to write all the zeros on the jury form.
I don’t know why Young would have settled at all, this looked like a jackpot. I’m guessing that he wanted the money now instead of waiting for years while the appeals ran their process.
$100M now sounds about right to settle is my WAG.
Re: CNN — The Supreme Court in “State Farm Mutual Insurance Co. v. Campbell, 538 U.S. 408 (2003)” held that generally punitive damages should not exceed the compensatory damages by more than single digits. So CNN was looking at an additional $45 million in damages. Almost certainly the settlement was close to that amount because CNN’s behavior was truly despicable and arrogant — exactly what juries despise.
This reminds me of Mann v. Steyn and I wonder why since Mann was only awarded small actual damages (I believe $1,000) that this issue hasn’t come up and been directly confronted from what I have seen. Almost certainly Steyn has lawyers telling him this is one very serious option to reduce the damages.
Tom Scharf,
Donno. They could have settled for $10 to $30 million, but considering that the attorneys will likely take 1/3 and the government 1/3, $30 million would only leave him with $10 million after tax and fees. (It is crazy, but the full settlement is taxable to the plaintiff, even if a big chunk goes to the attorneys!) Of course, index fund income on that amount would still be considerable.
But I would bet on something north of $30 million.
Will there be consequences for those who brought this on CNN? Not an ice cube’s chance.
NYT: “The location of the trial, in a Florida county where Mr. Trump won roughly three-quarters of the vote in 2024, was considered a disadvantage for CNN, whose coverage has been vilified by Mr. Trump and his supporters. Mr. Trump’s lawsuit against ABC, which was ultimately settled, was also filed in Florida.”
AP: “At a trial located in a conservative part of the country, Young’s lawyers urged jurors to send a message to the media.”
LA Times: “The verdict could also encourage others who feel aggrieved by news organizations to move forward with defamation cases, especially if they can be heard in venues with potentially sympathetic juries. Bay County, Fla., where Young filed his case, voted overwhelmingly for Trump in the 2024 election.”
Oh … so now the venue matters. I’m sure Fact Checkers agree.
This trial is in Amarillo, Texas. Shockingly Trump won that county by 60%.
For the record this is all around bad but with the required “but they started it and have it coming” qualifier. It’s mud wrestling.
Interesting statistic: There are some 42,000 ‘wet markets’ operating in China in 2019. Oddly enough, the Covid-19 was claimed to have started via and animal in a Wuhan wet market, the city which just happens, by coincidence, to have the only lab doing genetic modification closely related bat coronaviruses.
But seriously, the coincidence is so unlikely that Occam would roll his eyes….. as do I. I had no idea how many cities and Towns in China have these markets.
Biden actually thinks he just changed the Constitution. Not some silly case of misspeaking. Not some prank by an aide.
Talk about defending norms.
Is it too late to impeach Biden?
“Experts” don’t believe Biden. Apparently this theory rests entirely on a premise that the ERA law passed by Congress having a 10 year sunset provision for states to ratify it is unconstitutional. Good luck.
Tom,
In addition to the claim that the time limit expressed by Congress is not constitutional, one must also accept the claim that states can not rescind their ratification, as five (I think) have.
Google will show you sites stating that “legal scholars” agree with both claims, concluding that the ERA should now be accepted as part of the Constitution. Despite (apparently) court cases denying that position.
Biden’s dementia inspired ERA nonsense is nothing but a distraction. There have been dozens of Federal court rulings that the term for ratification (set by Congress when they passed the proposed amendment) has long since expired and there is no ERA in the constitution. At least 25 states have adopted their own versions of the ERA for their state constitutions, and every state continues to have that option. As always, ‘progressives’ insist that they have the right to tell everyone else what to do. It could not be more tiresome.
They say the reason they arrived too late to stop the fires from becoming catastrophic was because of severe budget cuts. The Fire Department did not pre-deploy fire engines to strategic locations, and helicopters arrived half an hour too late to put out the Palisades.
“That [Santa Ynez] reservoir being closed did not allow helicopters to drop and suck water up from five minutes away,” a new firefighter whistleblower, the third who has come forward, told me. “Instead, they had to fly 10 to 15 minutes away to go get water somewhere else.”
Also, massive shortages in personnel and equipment. Huge numbers of fires started by homeless people. And DEI:
Part of the reason is the city’s Diversity, Equity, Inclusion (DEI) programs. “The city will only purchase from vendors that support DEI,” said the firefighter. “So we’ll go with a vendor that we have to pay twice as much, or the shipment may take twice as long, in order for it to be a DEI vendor rather than the vendor who has it at half the price and can get it to us tomorrow.”
SteveF
Biden’s dementia inspired ERA nonsense is nothing but a distraction.
The distraction will not last very long. People have mostly been paying no attention at all to Biden since election day. Admittedly, some are paying attention to executive orders, pardons and acts that have some effect, but purely political speeches? Nah.
I wonder if Biden really even knows people are paying little attention to him. I know he is annoyed at “not getting credit” for things. We know he thinks tons of things he has been criticized for were “good” things. But I think most people read whatever excerpts are written by others and then shaking their heads. Everyone knows he’s out of touch. Even those who couldn’t bring themselves to recognize it before the Trump-Biden debate do admit it now. (Even if they won’t say so publicly).
WSJ:
“12% said they thought Biden was fit to serve a second term” – In breaking news the NYT wrote a 2000 word article yesterday stating that those around Biden knew he was in decline and effectively covered it up. Queue up the Pulitzer!
“36% approve of Biden’s job performance, with 62% disapproving—a record-low rating in Journal polls during his presidency”
“36% to 60%, voters view the Democratic Party more unfavorably than favorably. That marks the party’s weakest rating in Journal polls dating to 1990.”
I guess a lot of people found a way to not like “saving democracy”. As Jonathon Capehart would say, I’m very, very, disappointed in America.
However once the Republicans start governing then I expect these numbers to start to reverse. A sure thing, no. A probability, yes.
There was a big fire at a 3GWh Li-ion battery storage facility in Northern California. Solar power was used to charge the batteries for use at night. No casualties reported, but a number of people were evacuated.
How much longer does President Biden have to give any get out of jail free pardons, if he is going to do so, particularly for his brother and Schiff?
Less than 24 hours/
Can they announce them at the last minute?
angech
Can they announce them at the last minute?
I think yes– pretty much. He can announced them until the last second he is president.
To be safe, and avoid any argument, he should do it by the end of the 19th. Trump is sworn in at noon on the 20th which is when his term begins. The president is required to take the oath before assuming duties. But I’m pretty sure Biden’s is over regardless.
(What happens if something screws up the swearing in? Dunno. Potential constitutional crisis?)
But if I were getting pardoned I would hope to not have any Biden would do it by midnight the 19th and not dally to do it the morning of the 20th. But technically, I think he could sign the paper at 11:59 am and the pardon would be valid.
Egypt,
Viking tours. each bus has an Uzi armed guard. apparently threat is kidnapping. the Uzis are hung under the arm and don’t extend past the bottom of the sports jackets these guys ware. One of our guys had a model that some of the other envied so it came out and so were the others and they were compared. I wasn’t privey to the conversation.
no effective restrivctions on photography except in two museums where there was no photography for a special exhibit in each one, otherwise no restrictions. no photographing military sites nor anything that might reflect badly on Egypt.
we did hot-air balloon ride in luxor. no cameras allowed because military didn’t want any aerial shots of anything they had around here – didn’t see anything. cell phones were ok though.
We saw aspects of pyramids which I had never seen in books.
Once more, examples of limited value of photos taken by people who don’t really understand what they are looking at. I’ll get into this in more detail when we get home.
we did a tourby local trip Cairo to Alecandria. 10 hours with two egyptians, very interesting for reasons which had little to do wit the trip. It looks really tough to face the real possility that your kids despite making it through University may not have prosperous lives . I do see that with some of our friends in the US whose kids seem mostly to have foundered – carreer wait people and the like.
but it’s much worse there. even with a uni degree it sounds like success in terms we understand might be 1 chance in 50.
Thanks Lucia.
Still expect some action at last minute.
JF
Good to see you are enjoying your holiday .
Braver than me!
Enjoy
DeWitt,
1KW of lithium battery capacity costs in the range of $150 (or more!), so 3 GW of capacity would cost $450 million, just for the batteries….. add mounting, charge control, and DC/AC converters, and the cost could double. A big fire is going to be expensive.
SteveF, DeWitt:
The facility on fire is not 3GWh (or 3GW), it’s 300 MW / 1.2 GWh, per this. Still huge, of course.
Apparently the fire continues, though fortunately the local air quality seems to not be as bad as feared, as the local evacuation order has been lifted.
john ferguson,
We have done a number of Viking tours but I definitely haven’t seen any Uzi’s! I noted they were discounting the Egypt tours pretty aggressively and I figured it was due to security issues given the turmoil in the Middle East. I think it’s a good idea for them to have armed security even if it is just for show, the one off 1997 incident still resonates.
But have a good time, ha ha. Egypt is unique for sure, I can’t imagine what it was like watching those pyramids getting built.
Straight lithium doesn’t like water very much so battling those fires has to be done with some expertise.
Li-Ion gel / polymer can be quite reactive. The problem with dense cell based battery packs is once one cell goes into thermal run away there is a chain reaction to other cells.
Newer tech like Lithium Iron Phosphate is much more tolerant of pounding nails into battery packs, etc. It’s not quite as energy dense though.
I think the EV industry has done pretty good with safety, much less explosive fires from car wrecks then I would anticipate.
MikeM,
Not happening at all would be a bigger thing. If something big happened to prevent the swear in, I suspect they would just schedule a semi-private swear in. Nothing says the swear in needs an audience of thousands, cameras, a speech yada, yada. But the constitution does say it needs to happen.
SteveF,
As an electrochemist friend of mine says, batteries are the triumph of kinetics over thermodynamics. Lithium metal can theoretically reduce almost anything and cobalt(IV) oxide can oxidize almost anything. It really shouldn’t be possible to make a battery with a cell voltage of 3V. Wonders never cease.
3GWh was what it said in the very short article in the weekend WSJ. I didn’t bother to check. They also said that capacity had recently been expanded.
HaroldW,
You didn’t read all of your link. “Expansion to 750MW, 3,000MWh was started in 2023.” Apparently that expansion had just been completed. Further expansion was planned but not started.
lucia,
When the President dies, the subsequent swearing in can be quite informal. I think that any federal judge can do it.
China is chunking out batteries at an astronomical rate. Battery prices have dropped 9x over the past decade. I have no idea where the bottom of this market is.
Maybe its time to revisit large scale DC power residentially, I must have a hundred disparate AC/DC converters in my house.
The swearing in after JFK’s assassination was pretty informal.
The swearing in does not even have to be by a federal judge. There were no federal judges when Washington first took the oath. Arthur was sworn in by a state judge and Coolidge by a justice of the peace. But both later retook the oath with a federal judge so that there would be an official federal record of the event. Just to be sure.
Tom Scharf, MikeM,
That the swearing in can be informal is as I expected. The constitution doesn’t specify all the rigamorole. It only says he has
Before he enter on the Execution of his Office, he shall take the following Oath or Affirmation:– I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States, and will to the best of my Ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States.
Sounds like technically the elected president could just put his hand in the air and swear this in private. Of course, people want witnesses- just like for marriages!
A totally private swearing in could be useful if Mars Attacks– like in Mars Attacks.
The Constitution also says nothing about what happens when a VP suceeds to the office of president. Tyler insisted on taking the Oath to make the point that he was now President and not Vice President acting as president. That was part of his argument that he should serve out Harrison’s term and not just serve until a special election could be held.
I think that when the VP becomes Acting President under the 25th Amendment (as has happened many times), she does not take the Presidential Oath of Office.
DeWitt,
I read the paragraph about expansion to 750 MW/ 3000 MWh as referring to Phase 3, whereas the fire is in the Phase 1 section. Further, the article reads, “At 3 pm on Thursday January 16, 2025 an actual fire broke out in the 300 MW Phase 1 building.”, which is pretty specific.
Accurate? Well, it’s Wikipedia, so no guarantees. News articles I’ve read are not specific at all.
An estimated cost for storing solar power: Say $1 billion up front, for 3 GWh capacity, with a practical lifetime of 15 years tops before everything has to be replaced. Under the most optimistic conditions, you might get to use 85% of the total capacity each day for 325 days a year…. sunny desert Southwest. So 0.85*3 = 2.55 GWh per day, and 2.55*325*15 = 12,188 GWh total stored, or $0.082 per KWh until the system has to be replaced. Time cost of money at 5% per year adds another $0.06 per KWh, So breakeven looks like somewhere over $0.14 per KWh, any profit margin will only increase that rate. Add to the cost the investment in a solar farm to produce 3+ GWh per day, and the number gets crazy.
There has been a lot of reduction in battery cost, but unless people are willing to pay ~$0.35 – $0.40 per KWh, such a system is a loser. Only government subsidies (that is, making people pay more for electricity through their taxes) will induce investment in this business.
HaroldW,
The fire may have started in the phase I area. That doesn’t mean that construction of phase 3, which your link reported being started in 2023, hadn’t been completed. I’ll go with the WSJ, which reported that total capacity was 3,000MWh.
Biden has issued a “preemptive pardon” for Fauci among others. However, the news articles that I’ve seen don’t give the text. Given how wide-ranging Hunter’s pardon was, I’m curious to read what it says. Can anyone find it?
HaroldW
It will be interesting to read the language of that pre-emptive pardon!
Honestly, these pardons are a blessing. Many probably save Congress and others from wasting time on investigations that are too oriented toward individuals. Those aren’t going to do the nation any good.
If you do support Trumps and GOP programs you should prefer them to get down to he business of implementing those and not be distracted by witch hunts.
lucia,
Preemptive pardons are a dangerous precedent that undermine the rule of law.
If Republican Congress Critters are stupid enough to want to undertake witch hunts, the pardons won’t stop it. In fact, it would mean that pardoned persons might be unable to plead the Fifth.
If there is a silver lining in the pardons, it is that by accepting them, people like Milley and Fauci effectively admit guilt.
do we know ifany have been accepted?
john ferguson,
Do we know if accepting them is legally required? (Having never received a Presidential pardon, I’m afraid my pardon-o-logy is scant.)
The White House statement (link earlier) says, “The issuance of these pardons should not be mistaken as an acknowledgment that any individual engaged in any wrongdoing, nor should acceptance be misconstrued as an admission of guilt for any offense.”
As for accepting, this article has statements from Fauci & Milley:
Fauci issued a statement on Monday after the pardon news saying that he is grateful for the pardon.
“Despite the accomplishments that my colleagues and I achieved over my long career of public service, I have been the subject of politically motivated threats of investigation and prosecution,” Fauci said. “There is absolutely no basis for these threats. Let me be perfectly clear: I have committed no crime and there are no possible grounds for any allegation or threat of criminal investigation or prosecution of me. The fact is, however, that the mere articulation of these baseless threats, and the potential that they will be acted upon, create immeasurable and intolerable distress for me and my family.”
Milley said in a statement after Mr. Biden’s announcement Monday that he and his family “are deeply grateful for the President’s action today.”
“After forty-three years of faithful service in uniform to our Nation, protecting and defending the Constitution, I do not wish to spend whatever remaining time the Lord grants me fighting those who unjustly might seek retribution for perceived slights,” Milley said.
HaroldW,
That’s to be expected. If offered, I would accept a baseless pardon too. And I would say the same thing. I would also accept a pardon for something I did. And I would say the same thing.
How petty to do this on the last day. The danger to democracy crowd strikes again. Look what the evil doers made Biden do to protect the forces of truth and justice.
I gave Biden a “meh” rating previously but the last few months have turned that into “barf”. He has really tarnished his legacy in the last year. Don’t let the door hit you on the way out Angry Joe.
It clears the deck for Jan 6th riot pardons.
“The issuance of these pardons should not be mistaken as an acknowledgment that any individual engaged in any wrongdoing”
Hilarious, both sides are clown shows. No one is above the law, except Hunter, Fauci, Milley ….
Most of the investigative witch hunting already happened when the Republican gained control of the house a while back. Gaining control of the DOJ means prosecutions could occur but I didn’t really see that happening per the “lock her up” precedent.
I see this as the left again falling into traps with huge “Don’t Fall Into This Obvious Trap” signs all about. The left went crazy with witch hunts … and … what … happened? They lost the Presidency and the Senate to their very targets, Donald Trump. The voters are the jury.
The DC bubble is impervious.
“The issuance of these pardons should not be mistaken as an acknowledgment that any individual engaged in any wrongdoing”
Yep. And we now have 28 amendments to the Constitution. I give as much credence to one as to the other.
I don’t think a pardon has to be formally accepted, but it can be rejected. My guess is that the rule “silence implies consent” applies.
By the way, the pardons might be invalid. At least some experts say that a pardon has to specify the crime being pardoned. So conceivably a federal prosecutor could bring FARA charges against Hunter and argue that the pardon does not cover that. No telling how the courts might rule.
Just speculating: What if it were to be discovered that Gen. Milley was actually in the pay of the Chinese? If so, I’d like to see treason charges filed in spite of the pardon and let the courts sort it out.
Biden’s pardons are very specifically placing Hunter, Fauci, Milley, Cheney etc. above the law. That is unacceptable.
Tom Scharf,
As Br’er Rabbit once said: Please don’t throw me in that briar patch.
“Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) arrived at the inauguration Monday in his classic fit — a hoodie and shorts — despite the freezing temperatures in the nation’s capital.“ https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2025/01/20/sen-john-fetterman-arrives-at-inauguration-in-hoodie-and-shorts/
.
My hat goes off to Sen Fetterman. He has developed “look” and policy positions that stands out from the crowd and, IMO, will give a lock on his career for years to come.
.
The term “empty suit “ just does not apply to John 🙂
Yipee!
Trump was brief. I didn’t know he could do that.
“Minutes before his term ended, former President Biden announced pre-emptive pardons for his siblings and their spouses.”
This just looks bad.
Tom,
Minutes? Good thing he didn’t trip and fall… or were they already signed and he just announced?
I didn’t see the inaguration. My older sister hosted a party for my Mom. My nephew flew in from New Jersey.
Two comments on the part of the ceremony I watched. Trump’s speech was very good. Carrie Underwood is a trouper.
In Dec. 2020, Jake Tapper asked President elect Biden about the possibility that Trump might issue preemptive pardons.
Biden: “It concerns me, the type of precedent it sets. How the rest of the world looks at us as a nation of laws. You won’t see me doing that.”
He was right as to the first two sentences.
Does anyone here have any yogurt making experience? I was bored last week and tried to make “pro-biotic yogurt” (from stuff in pills). I thought… hmm…. “what if..?” Did a couple of tests. And now I have weird question. If necessary, I want to describe the “weird things” in a post. But if no one has information on yogurt making or general “what weird thing happen with milk” knowledge, I don’t want to.
(Why bored? Jim had light Covid; I did not. I stayed home… I am now also trying to ferment stuff. )
So which NBA team does Barron Trump play for?
Lucia,
“Does anyone here have any yogurt making experience?’
Sure.
I used to make a gallon at a time, using whole milk as a starting point. You can use low f at or skim, the less butterfat the less rich it tastes. I added either the commercial culture (or a little of whatever was left over from the last effort), mixed completely into the fresh milk, kept the temperature at ~20C-25C, and 24 hours (or less) later, yogurt. Never thought much about the details.
Lucia,
BTW,
Plain yogurt is pretty hardcore. I always added some kind of preserves (strawberry, peach, orange, grape, etc.) to make the yogurt more palatable. How much you add of these (naughty) things determines how low in calories the yogurt is… saintly to devilish.
My youngest daughter adds zero-calorie sweetener to make this sort of food more palatable.
lucia,
Yogurt is pretty easy. Any plain yogurt that has active cultures can be used for a starter. Mix well. We had a tray that held six small containers and kept them warm while they fermented. I don’t know what temperature other than it was above room temperature and just a little warm. Pickles and sauerkraut are more complex. Beer is hard, or so I’m told. Holding partially risen bread dough in the refrigerator for 12 to 48+ hours is good for French bread and pizza dough. Yeast growth is more temperature sensitive than the enzyme reactions that convert starches to sugar.
DeWitt,
The question isn’t going to be about making ordinary plain yogurt!! I can make it starting from Fage– tastes great!
There is “a thing” going around where people try to make it skipping the normal starters and try to start from over the counter probiotics sold as supplements. This sent me down a rabbit hole a bit.
And my *actual* question is HOW in the world I can manage to get boiled milk ONLY to gell if I incubate about 14 hours at 37 C. (I know in theory– stuff in the air settled. But could that much settle while the stuff in the measuring cup is cooling?) My questions are about getting stuff that kinda-sorta looks like yogurt that should fail!
On recipes– when I make “normal” yogurt, I drain into make very thick greek yogurt then add garlic, salt and herbs. I like to use that as a spread where otherwise I might use cheese and mayo. It’s also a nice dip for veggies.
But the questions come from the “weird” yogurt and things I thought should fail.
The Viking King from Jan 6th has been pardoned, although he served a 41 month sentence for felony obstruction already.
The college championship game is a dud. I’ll give the first 12 team playoff a C-.
The dud game is
OSU 31
ND 23
with a little over 4 minutes left.
(40) John Sipher
(41) Stephen B. Slick
(42) Cynthia Strand
Intelligence Agency Fake Laptop signatories.
Are these names for real?
(50) John R. Bolton This one is.
I have the answer to my yogurt question. The actual question was:
How come, if I use my yogurt process and add NO STARTER it still eventually gels. Specifically, it gels in about 14 hours. The answer is some lactobacillus survive pasteurization!
“Some strains of Lactobacillus can survive pasteurization, including Lactobacillus lactis, Lactobacillus lindneri, Lactobacillus kefiranofaciens, Lactobacillus paracasei, and Lactobacillus plantarum”
With respect to the pardons – Vindman’s wife is PO’d that he didn’t get one!
I get exhausted just reading about everything Trump did yesterday. Amazing. Even if he wasn’t 78.
I have a new post– on my “fauxgurt” question. I’m leaving these comments open so that (possibly) the first answers on the fauxgurt question are speculations about “fauxgurt”. (Otherwise, if I move a bunch of these, the first comments will be those already posted here– and will be about something else.)
The new post is an open thread. But if anyone has comments on fauxgurt that’s useful. ( Fauxgurt is a waste of time might be a truthful comment. But…well… yeah.)
It was a crazy day yesterday. Trump flooded the zone with executive power in a shock and awe campaign. He declared everything an emergency. Trump learned something in his first term and has hit the ground running here.
The legacy media took a while coordinating their messages which made it almost like old school journalism for a day. They eventually decided to focus on Jan 6th pardons but Biden had largely defanged this line of critique.
The NYT’s is going the low road trying to sell that Musk was giving a Nazi salute, ha ha. Of course they are just reporting on what others are saying, no selection bias whatsoever.
Rubio was confirmed 99-0 so that was at least encouraging that everything won’t be reflexively anti-Trump this time around.
OSU was up 31-7 and ND had only 25 yards of offense through two quarters after their first drive. It did tighten up late which was nice but it ended like 99.9% of all 24 point leads.
Tom,
I generally like Melania’s fashion statements. Not all of it, but most. I’m not going to imitate it– I’m going to stick to my super casual leggings and so on. But I like it just as much as, say, Michelle Obama.
During the last Trump administration the media liked to slam it. But I think that was mostly just anti-Trumpism. Melania’s outfits are nice.
Tom Scharf wrote: “He declared everything an emergency. ”
I only noticed two emergencies:
(1) The border. That is hard to argue with.
(2) Energy. Important, but hardly an emergency.
Did I miss some?
The border is not an emergency at the moment, but I definitely agree that border enforcement overall is an emergency of not trying at all. Trump at least has the backing of the citizens for this one. The progressive lawyers will tie all this up in courts but the battle can be won anyway.
Asylum needs to be reset, specifically who can apply, where they can stay during processing, and the threshold of evidence required.
Everyone knows almost everyone here are economic refugees and that farce just needs to stop. We can have a discussion on how we treat economic refugees but not by pretending they are asylum seekers and openly abusing immigration laws.
If I even notice the fashion then it must be either super good or super bad.
They treated Obama’s wife as a model and put her on the cover of endless magazines while dismissing Trump’s actual model(?) of a wife. The arts can be fickle like that but this looked like political black listing.
I bet it is pretty hard being Trump’s wife, Biden should have given her the Medal of Freedom.
300K people a month entering the country illegally is an emergency.
One more small thing to be happy for this new year: Paul Krugman, a constant loud voice for idiotic, destructive policies, retired from the New York Times. Now if another 50 did the same, and were replaced by realists, the NYT could actually become readable again.
Happy New Year to all.
Krugman became a bit too predictable in his later years, another writer who was a candidate for most likely to be an AI algorithm.
His “the economy will never recover” statement after 2016 will haunt him. It was a stark example of how the alleged expert academic class was tainted by politics.
So far the highlight of the college bowl games has been the Pop-Tart bowl where the official mascot is lowered into a toaster after the game and then eaten by the winning team.
Bud Light needs to hire their marketing department.
“the economy will never recover”
That is only the best remembered of his endless, politically motivated, idiotic analysis: gigantic green boondoggles were perfectly OK and would never lead to inflation, Bidens’ border policies were no problem at all, confiscatory taxes would be good for economic growth, etc, etc, etc.
The guy was and is an utter buffoon.
ESPNU is broadcasting the game in Skycast:
It’s a non-stop view from the skycam, behind the offense. No broadcast commentary, no video vignettes, etc. You get the full ambient noise from the stadium, along with in-house public address.
The Ukrainians recently mounted an assault on Russian ground troops using ground attack drones. Finally got a close look at the vehicle…. Looks like a tracked golf cart with a Ma Deuce [M2 Browning .50 caliber machine gun] on board.
Video:
https://x.com/DakdaR22/status/1874261576993079298
The Texas / Ariz. State game finally gives the CFP life!
Well this is exciting
Great game. A lot of drama.
ESPN SkyCast for the Rose Bowl is on ESPNews
Arizona State outgained Texas 510 to 375 yards. Texas made some bad decisions after having a big lead and their vaunted defense was a sieve in the second half.
Atrocious FBI DEI hire “assistant special agent in charge” Alethia Duncan stated that the terror attack in New Orleans was not being considered a terrorist attack …. long before the facts were in.
Something about an FBI agent with a nose piercing doesn’t sit right with me.
Kenneth,
Texas started playing to not lose. They advanced, but it shouldn’t have been that hard.
Ohio State looks like it is on a mission. 34-0 in 1st half against #1 team. Yikes.
Arizona State had too many running plays that ended up gaining a lot of yards and burned a lot of time and resulted in too few points. The endless shots of the ASU running back became quite annoying. Even if I weren’t a Texas fan, I would have wanted ASU to lose.
“Texas started playing to not lose. They advanced, but it shouldn’t have been that hard.”
Exactly my thoughts. That strategy often loses. I give Arizona State lots of credit though in taking advantage. They not only made the Texas defense look weak in the second half they also defended well against Texas running and passing by racking up some timely yardage loses.
DeWitt Payne
January 2, 2025 at 11:27 am
DeWitt, that running back, Cam Skattebo, had one heck of a game. At one time he had outgained the entire Texas offense.
He did have his helmet off quite often on the sendlines for better camera shots.
Paul Krugman is not an exception to the thinking of mainstream Keyensian economists. He is more obviously partisan which makes his predictions and explantions of economic events appear unreal to those with even low levels of economics understanding.
I read a number of his criticisms of Austrian economics where he would misrepresent their explanations and ignore the import of their economic reasoning.
Skattebo carried Ariz State on his back and almost won the game. Very impressive performance. He was 5th in Heisman voting.
Texas can’t seem to play an entire game, they fall asleep for 2 quarters. That won’t work against Ohio State.
GA lost their QB but sometimes that makes the other players step up. Should be interesting. I never root for ND, ha ha.
DeWitt Payne, Your comment:
“ The endless shots of the ASU running back became quite annoying.”
I usually prefer one of the alternate broadcasts. This afternoon there are at least three choices:
“The Georgia at Notre Dame game will be available to watch live on ESPN beginning at 4:00pm ET.
ESPN will also present a Command Center broadcast of the Georgia-Notre Dame game on ESPNU and a SkyCast of the game on ESPN3.”
Many premium cable networks have all three ESPN channels.
I usually have at least two screens streaming. I will have the sound turned on only for the SkyCast because it only plays the in-stadium sounds…..Bands, Cheers, Crowds..it’s like being there.
It would appear all the performative Gaza protestors found something more interesting to do this semester. Shots and bong hits I suspect.
Who knew! I like the wisdom of an 80 year old radical feminist.
Germaine Greer is someone I thought I despised, but she has been making a lot of sense lately:
“Female is real and it’s sex and femininity is unreal and it’s gender, and it’s a role you play.”
This trans BS annoys feminists too.
https://x.com/AgingWhiteGay/status/1634464766096965634
The feminists are quite enamored with their superior womanhood so they also get annoyed when it gets defined out of existence.
Kenneth,
As I said, a lot of yards but not enough points. ASU was still calling mostly running plays well into the fourth quarter. It’s one thing to keep it on the ground when you’re ahead, but not so much when you’re 16 points behind. The Texas kicker muffed a field goal he should have made to allow the overtime. ASU’s clock mismanagement gave Texas enough time to get into scoring position. So the ASU defense wasn’t all that great in the second half either. And it was an interception by the Texas defense that ended the game.
IMO, so-called prevent defenses combined with a conservative offense often prevent winning.
You also get fired when you throw on 3 consecutive downs when you should be running out the clock, or you leave single coverage on the other team’s best receiver in the final two minutes.
If you have enough time then it makes sense to run or short pass your way down the field against a prevent defense. It makes that possession super critical and 4th down territory all the way down the field though. The most successful offenses are balanced and “take what the defense gives them”.
Some teams can impose their will against lesser teams in college but once you get to the big games (and the NFL) then play calling and game strategy become important.
The NFL went through the west coast offense but teams learned to defend it, prevent defense was defeated so they mostly run a mini-prevent for the most part. Two deep safeties etc.
Arizona State went with a full on blitz at the end of the regular time when Texas had 4th and long. As they say, live by the blitz, die by the blitz. I knew once that blitz was successfully picked up that they had a big problem.
I’ve been watching all three ESPN broadcasts and I like the SkyCast on ESPNEWS best. If you run two screens, the SkyCast is on a 2-3 second delay, so you can watch each play from two perspectives, sidelines and behind the quarterback.
SkyCast is broken
Kenneth Fritsch,
“Paul Krugman is not an exception”
Only to the extent he is exceptionally stupid and politically motivated. Nothing that has transpired over the past 6 years years is remotely difficult to understand. As Freidman said “inflation is always and everywhere a purely monetary phenomenon”.
Krugman is so blinded by his lefty politics that he can’t see even the most obvious: you dump trillions of ‘out-of-air’ created dollars into the US economy, and there will be inflation, full stop. Of course, the early impact is in the financial markets… which generate profits for investors, followed by ever rising prices across the entire economy… punishing everyone who is not an investor with inflated consumable prices.
The guy is unbelievably dishonest or unbelievably stupid. I would go with unbelievably dishonest over unbelievably stupid, since he clearly doesn’t give a shit about the impact of bad economic policy on those least able to deal with inflation.
None of it reflects well on Krugman. Hell, nothing reflects well on him.
I normally do not make sporting predictions, but I see Ohio State and Penn State playing for the national championship – unless I am under estimating Texas and Notre Dame defenses.
We may be getting some AI help in 15 day weather predictions. In early 2025, Google is entering the scramble with GenCast. Company hype:
“We introduce GenCast, a ML-based generative model for ensemble weather forecasting, trained from reanalysis data. It forecasts ensembles of trajectories for hundreds of weather variables, up to 15 days at 1 degree resolution globally, using under TC secs per ensemble member. We show that GenCast is more skilful than ENS, a top operational ensemble forecast, for TC% of TC verification targets, while maintaining good calibration and physically consistent power spectra.”
Nature published a study that supports this hype:
‘It has greater skill than ENS on 97.2% of 1,320 targets we evaluated and better predicts extreme weather, tropical cyclone tracks and wind power production. This work helps open the next chapter in operational weather forecasting, in which crucial weather-dependent decisions are made more accurately and efficiently.”
If you are interested in the maths:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08252-9
For those of us who aren’t math and physics gurus, the Verge has an analysis of GenCast in everyday English:
“GenCast is a machine learning weather prediction model trained on weather data from 1979 to 2018. The model learns to recognize patterns in the four decades of historical data and uses that to make predictions about what might happen in the future. That’s very different from how traditional models like ENS work, which still rely on supercomputers to solve complex equations in order to simulate the physics of the atmosphere. Both GenCast and ENS produce ensemble forecasts, which offer a range of possible scenarios.”
And:
“When it comes to predicting the path of a tropical cyclone, for example, GenCast was able to give an additional 12 hours of advance warning on average. GenCast was generally better at predicting cyclone tracks, extreme weather, and wind power production up to 15 days in advance.”
And:
“Speed is an advantage for GenCast. It can produce one 15-day forecast in just eight minutes using a single Google Cloud TPU v5. Physics-based models like ENS might need several hours to do the same thing. GenCast bypasses all the equations ENS has to solve, which is why it takes less time and computational power to produce a forecast. Computationally, it’s orders of magnitude more expensive to run traditional forecasts compared to a model like Gencast,”
https://www.theverge.com/2024/12/7/24314064/ai-weather-forecast-model-google-deepmind-gencast
I wasted nights for the two years after my divorce trying to discover leading indicators (predicters) for price rise in equities on the NYSE. This, believe it or not an an Osborne 1 with a 8 inch floppy drive containing 5 years of historic data on closing prices given me by a friend from Merrill Lynch. I tried all sorts of algorithms looking at what happened in the two weeks preceding a significant rise. I got nowhere, which is good because if I had gotten somewhere, I’d have probably been fooling myself.
I wonder if AI would be better at this and maybe better than the work in the ’80s and ’80s by the MIT physics grads who went into financial institutions instead of seeling honest work.
Accuracy of hindcasts miraculously tend to be better than accuracy of predicting future events. We shall see. It is easy to overfit your model to historic events when chasing accuracy.
There are ways to do this comparative analysis correctly but physics based predictors should be better for physics based phenomenon, in theory. This is especially true when unique circumstances crop up that aren’t in the training set.
John, datamining historical data can always find “winning” strategies when the model is sufficiently overfit and the need for Bonferroni corrections are ignored. Unfortunately the predictive power of those strategies is close to zero.
Technical analysis of the stock market kind of works, AFAICT it just doesn’t work any better than other methods. A simple model of “invest the day after the stock market rises” will probably do fine in a market that is rising.
The market is constantly reacting to unique circumstances and the short term is driven as much by human emotion and the related speculation.
I’m sure there are plenty of people applying AI to the market now, they try everything. You can also apply AI to coin tosses and it won’t help much. I imagine if you feed an AI model all the previous days financial and world news you might get a short term trading edge but I don’t really see an AI model mystically telling you to buy bitcoin 10 years ago or Netflix stock when they were shipping DVD’s.
Physics based models can be much more readily tested with historical and empirical data than those models arising out of soft sciences.
This difference was not completely recognized by scientists selecting temperature proxies for estimating historical temperatures. Even cross-validation and out- of-sample testing can be easily corrupted and abused.
All 4 top seeds lost. I wouldn’t really call all of the losing teams favorites because of the screwy seeding in place. Let’s hope for some more competitive games going forward.
I think AI should be better at this. It seems to me that the biggest problem is that the reason for trends is too chaotic for pattern matching to spot real trends. Things like the time of year, the weather, world events, company performance, current trends, government spending, super bowl wins, investment corp algorithms etc could all impact share price trends.
I think only by synthesizing many models of human behavior, and vast amounts of information, could you begin to make predictions which actually work.
We know we are nearing the singularity when all the AI stock trading models tell you to invest in AI.
GenCast was trained on data from 1979-2018. It was tested on events from 2019. So it looks like an honest test of predictive skill.
2024 SpaceX orbital launches: 134
All of the EU combined: 3
China: 68
Russia: 17
Japan: 7
India: 5
Iran: 4
North Korea: 1
Tom,
An amazing accomplishment for SpaceX. More importantly, only one failure (among orbital launches).
An AI algorithm that takes out of it the human fraility in testing to peek at data without Bonferroni accounting and to correctly use out-of-sample data for validation would be a non human improvement.
Dealing with data that has the effects of human actions on it presents other difficulties as noted by Tom. It is not static but rather dynamic in nature. Some a prior reasoning concerning human actions is also helpful since it might even show the futility in model attempts such as seen with economic models that make unreal assumptions about human behavior.
A good example of an unrealistic investing model was the “Dogs of the DOW” and its many variations which used historical data and with no apparent logical basis.
An approach to investing suggested by a friend who had enriched himself this way was to discover “tide-machines.”
These are equities whose price rises and falls over some more or less regular period usually more than four months. Buy lower, sell higher, don’t be piggy. If there was a problem with this, it seemed to work better with equities with lower market valuations such that if you put much at risk your interest might affect the proceedings.
We did inadvertantly find ouorselves with such an investment, purchased for other reasons. There was a significant investor who apparently drove the ebb and flow for some purpose of his own, maybe to harvest the folks who bought on rises.
It was amazing, for years it would move between $4 and $9 (right order of magnitude but not real numbers)
I would think it easy to find stocks which have behaved thus in the past, but it would be prudent to come to underdstand their businesses lest you put money in something which is about to drop dead.
Momentum investing
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Momentum_investing
Like all strategies, it works until it doesn’t.
For the record I’m a buy and hold guy with mostly index funds. I just don’t find investing that interesting or fun for whatever reason.
Roger Pielke Jr had a suggestion for climate related research whereby reasearchers would register upfront their work and intended data sources so as to avoid cherry picking data. I did have a link to the details but could not quickly find it. I think their data search would have to have a stated criteria for what data to use.
This is what I have been suggesting over the years for selecting and using temperature proxies.
Trump appears to have twisted arms in getting two Republicans in the House to switch their initial votes to supporting Mike Johnson for speaker.
The skids are now greased for a reconciliation package that ends much of Biden’s crazy spending. But losses of seats by Trump appointees will complicate things. New York will be in no hurry for a special election to replace Stefanik, so Johnson will have one less vote for several months at least.
I am puzzled by Florida taking so long for the special elections. April 1, I think.
The Trump effect:
“NEW: Greenland Prime Minister Múte Egede calls for independence from Denmark as Donald Trump ramps up his calls for acquiring the territory.
“It is now time to take the next step for our country,” Egede said.
“Like other countries in the world, we must work to remove the obstacles to cooperation, which we can describe as the shackles of the colonial era, and move on.”
“Our cooperation with other countries, and our trade relations, cannot continue to take place solely through Denmark.”
https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1875337006143729668
Mike, your comment:
“I am puzzled by Florida taking so long for the special elections. April 1, I think.”
DeSantis is planning on appointing Rubio’s replacement in the Senate. I woulnd’t be surprised if it were DeSantis.
Russell,
I don’t see what the Senate appointment has to do with the special elections for the House.
DeSantis can not appoint himself to the Senate. What he could do is appoint a placeholder who won’t run for reelection and then run for the open seat in 2026.
Mike M.
DeSantis could always resign with his successor appointing him to the Senate.
Musk details the upgrades for the next Starship launch:
“Posting technical upgrades to Starship, as I think a lot of people enjoy understanding how the technology is evolving from one flight to the next”
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1875331162400551044
With the four “top” teams eliminated from the playoffs in the first game they played, maybe the organizers will rethink their rankings scheme. Sticking to something more like the coaches poll rankings might produce better playoff games. The selections based on league champions doesn’t necessarily reflect relative team strength. Oregon was not a plausible #1, they squeaked by two or three better teams during the season (like Ohio State) to remain undefeated, but they also squeaked by in games against very weak opponents…. games that should never have been close.
There will always be upsets, of course, but 4 out of 4? That just indicates the rankings are wrong.
I’d just take the top 16 teams from the coaches rankings and play four rounds.
From Scott Adam’s… Amazon knowingly sells cheap China knockoffs and makes it difficult to fix it.
“ The Amazon counterfeit product scandal is way worse than I thought. It’s massive. I wouldn’t hold the stock until it gets sorted out.
100% of the Dilbert calendars on Amazon are fake. I don’t sell the calendar on Amazon. And Amazon has an (intentionally) broken system for reporting the fakes. The fakes come faster than the reporting system.
I’m hearing incredible stories of Amazon abusing American small business owners by essentially being accomplices in stealing their work and giving it to China. The system is so robust that ANY successful American product China can copy gets knocked off. “
https://x.com/scottadamssays/status/1875153196542480582?s=61&t=7w4bCW3a8ve2DqoeniQatQ
john ferguson: “DeSantis could always resign with his successor appointing him to the Senate.”
Yes, but why would he want to do that? It would obviously be perceived as slimy by the public. And it is not at all clear that DeSantis even wants to be in the Senate. I am pretty sure that he likes being governor. It would be one thing if he were a peacock like Lindsey Graham. But DeSantis seems to like being in charge and making decisions. He is a natural executive, not a legislator.
I am guessing that when his term is up he will launch a full time presidential campaign
SteveF: “The selections based on league champions doesn’t necessarily reflect relative team strength.”
Of course not. I think the idea is that a conference championship should mean something. It used to be that if you weren’t the best team in your league then you weren’t the best team in the nation.
If it were up to me, there would be three power conferences, each with two divisions. The winners of those championship games would take three of the four playoff spots. Then the fourth spot would go to the winner of a play-in game between the best two non-power conference teams. It would be better for the “student”-athletes and it would be better for the game, even if it generates less TV revenue.
Note that with the above scheme, not all the top programs would choose to be in a power conference.
SpaceX:
“Hardware upgrades to the launch and catch tower will increase reliability for booster catch, including protections to the sensors on the tower chopsticks that were damaged at launch and resulted in the booster offshore divert on Starship’s previous flight test.”
So that’s why the catch was aborted. The sensors got cooked.
“The returning booster will slow down from supersonic speeds, resulting in audible sonic booms in the area around the landing zone. Generally, the only impact to those in the surrounding area of a sonic boom is the brief thunder-like noise with variables like weather and distance from the return site determining the magnitude experienced by observers.”
The Musk haters (and there are many, notably at the WSJ) are trying to slow down Starship by environmental concerns of the sonic booms. Everything looks like a nail to environmental lawyers. We got sonic booms from the shuttle landings 50 miles away in Melbourne.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/24/science/spacex-starship-sonic-boom/index.html
“coaches poll rankings”
The problem with this is that it tends to be a popularity poll with the usual suspects always being ranked higher than their peers with the same number of losses. They are effectively given an extra “legacy win” every year and that is very tiring to second tier teams.
They tried computer ranking during the BCS era and that was also controversial. It’s probably better than committees and coaches though. Strength of schedule, strength of opponents schedule, good wins, bad losses, etc.
The reality is also that injuries matter a lot (ask GA) and teams are different at the start and end of the season.
The good thing about a 12 team playoff is that the best teams are never left out now.
“The Amazon counterfeit product scandal”
18650 Rechargeable Battery 9900mAh
https://www.amazon.com/Rechargeable-Capacity-Batteries-Headlamp-Flashlight/dp/B0CTX92YZN
WTF? This is blatant fraud and has been on Amazon for quite a while now. These batteries top out around 3500 mAh.
Similar Amazon batteries were tested here at <1000 mAh, 12% of rated capacity.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qMZuHMlRw_0
Beware buying cheap Chinese stuff from 3rd party suppliers on Amazon. Amazon does not do enough to police this stuff.
“I think the idea is that a conference championship should mean something.”
That’s part of it, the other part is conference title games shouldn’t be beneficial to teams who don’t even get to a title game.
Case in point was Ohio State a few years back not even making it to the conference title game and then other teams invariably went to their conference title games and lost.
All the esteemed “football scholars” then thought OSU should go to the BCS even though they they didn’t even make it to the conference title game. Those losing teams may have gone to the BCS if they would have never played in their title games. Chaos.
I think the playoff was expanded in part just to deal with this problem.
The college football payoffs were expanded for one reason: Money.
From the Washington Post:
It seems that Biden is trying to ensure that his legacy as the worst President ever will never be challenged.
In other news, it seems the corrupt judge in NYC wants to continue his public, political, destruction derby, of the justice system by announcing sentencing on Jan 10th.
The end of season finale approaches! Will it be the end of the show or will it be a cliffhanger? Sentencing delayed! Find out next time…
The good thing for Trump about getting sentenced is that he will then be able to appeal. The conviction should not be able to withstand and appeal, but New York courts …
Without sentencing, the case would be in limbo until Trump leaves office.
The judge already announced there will be no jail time or probation.
The Snail Darter never existed! It was made up to block the dam, according to the New York Times.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/03/science/snail-darter-fish-tellico-dam.html?unlocked_article_code=1.mk4.wy66.xPuN916SarPe&smid=url-share#
Tom Scharf,
“The judge already announced there will be no jail time or probation.”
Well then, at least the judge will be able to say that he hates Trump. What an asshole!
The idiocy of TDS is essentially unlimited. That judge should be in prison, not in judicial robes.
As the saying goes…
“It’s Great….To Be… a Florida Gator.”
I knew we would have to pay for the electric infrastructure that had to be replaced after three hurricanes this year. I just didn’t know how much.
I got my email notice from Florida Power and Light [FPL] today:
“Hurricanes and severe weather are part of living in Florida. When a hurricane strikes, FPL works safely and as quickly as possible to restore power to our customers, sometimes bringing in thousands of additional lineworkers from other states to help. Such emergency restoration costs are not reflected in your bill until after a storm. The Florida Public Service Commission (PSC) has approved FPL’s request for a temporary charge to cover costs from 2024 Hurricanes Debby, Helene and Milton.”
“The typical 1,000 kwh bill will temporarily go up by 15 cents per month.”
God, I love this state.
Fun (and possibly even true) stat of the day:
11% of Americans believe that Hillary Clinton is honest and trustworthy.
14% of Americans believe in bigfoot.
Tampa is also getting a “temporary” $30 / month power bill hike.
Tom,
Ouch! I assume you have Tampa Electric. $30.00/mo vs $0.15/mo. Do you have any idea why the difference. In addition to the eye wall of Milton, Sarasota got hit with extensive flooding from Helene. I think we got hit worse by all three storms.
John, I think has Duke Energy, I wander how they did.
Also, FPL was clobbered by that tornado swarm, that came with Milton, in South and East Florida, which should have also brought the restoration costs up for us relative to Tampa.
Mike M. I wonder if the 11% is a subset of that 14%.
We have Duke Power. I guess the Duke increase is $21 AFAICT.
FPL says a $12/month increase:
https://www.fpl.com/rates.html
“The Florida Public Service Commission (PSC) has approved FPL’s request for a temporary charge to cover costs from 2024 Hurricanes Debby, Helene and Milton. This charge also replenishes funds used after Hurricane Idalia in 2023. The charge adds $12.02 to a typical 1,000-kWh residential bill from January to December this year.”
The $0.15 charge is for some solar thing. Their statement is a bit misleading unless you read closely.
I spent about as much for 5 days worth of gasoline for running a 6.5 KW generator as the surcharges for hurricane damages will total.
The natural gas FPL buys to make most of its electricity is remarkably cheap and their combined cycle generation plants (gas turbine/steam) remarkably efficient (>60% thermal efficiency). The industrial natural gas price in Florida is about $6 per million BTU (FP&L no doubt pays less!), while retail gasoline is about $26 per million BTU.
BTW, gasoline powered generators top out at ~23% thermal efficiency at full rated load. Under typical use conditions…. averaging 50% of full load, their thermal efficiency drops to about 14%.
About 8 kW per gallon of gas for small generators, but loading matters as you say.
I don’t think I will buy another vehicle that doesn’t have at least an 1800W inverter built into it.
It is kind of silly at this point to have to buy separate gas generators and sit them right next to your car which is a rolling generator. They are quieter, hold more fuel, and could be just as efficient with some effort. They run ~4 kW / gallon but likely a large variance here.
This is especially true for EV’s. A long range Model 3 has a 75 kWh battery. This could run appliances (not HVAC) for a long time.
Tom Scharf,
Car engines aren’t designed to run as electric generators. At idle, the alternator isn’t capable of producing much power, I think. If you did manage to increase the idle rpm’s, the efficiency would suffer from having way too much engine. You would probably also have a problem with cooling as the radiator fan probably isn’t going to move enough air. When on a chassis dyno, there’s always a big fan in front of the car.
Also, it’s cold outside here at the moment. Last month with a 41F average temperature, I averaged 65kWh/day @$0.122/kWh. Maybe it would work in Florida where you don’t have to worry about pipes freezing, but not here.
They could certainly improve the design for emergency power / camping backup but it’s not a priority and I guess the market is too small to make it so. The F150 has multiple options.
Most solar generator companies now sell alternator chargers. All of these concerns are voiced but not much empirical data. Its kind of the wild west. Connecting these things to your 20 year old econobox is a lot different than a modern SUV.
https://us.ecoflow.com/products/800w-alternator-charger
A modern vehicle sitting at idle still needs to run all its systems (lights, stereo, climate, heated seats, windows, etc.). Both of my vehicles have 200A+ alternators. If you aren’t running those systems than you should have 500W+ of headroom at idle.
Then there is the issue of smart alternators, some cars will reduce alternator output for better efficiency.
I tried to post something at Climate, etc. and got a “Nonce verification failed.” Is that my VPN?
What I wanted to point out is that using carbon emissions per capita is not a good way to compare emissions between countries. Emissions scale by GDP, so it seems to me that energy efficiency is more important. That would be emissions/$GDP. On that basis, the US in 2022 was more than twice as efficient as China with 0.19 gigatons CO2/trillion dollars for the US and 0.42 for China. GDP from IMF data, PPP corrected. China has a long way to go.
At least some of that difference in efficiency must be due to China producing all our “inefficient” crap? I wouldn’t be at all surprised to find out that all our handwringing on this subject has had zero effect on CO2 trajectory and perhaps even made it worse.
NYT: Early This Morning, New York City Proved What the Democratic Party Is Capable Of
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/05/opinion/democratic-party-new-york-congestion.html
The article is unironically arguing that taxing its citizens via congestion pricing is “Proving What the Democratic Party Is Capable Of” with an assumption that these funds would then be used judicially to improve their citizens lives going forward.
Yeah, right. Looks like FL will need to build even more housing for NY’ers.
Tom Scharf,
I guess people are planning on a continuing flux of newcomers.
In my county, the rate of construction of residential real estate is almost mindboggling: condos, houses, apartments. When I drive on a road I have not been on in a year, I usually discover large housing developments nearing completion….. hundreds of houses each. A condo complex with about 180 apartments went up not far from me in just over 4 months.
Tom Scharf,
That congestion tax in NYC is supposed to finance the subway system that has been bleeding even more money than usual because it’s now so dangerous and a lot of people who do use it jump the turnstiles. Of course if it did reduce congestion, then it would raise less money than expected. Note that imposition was delayed until after the election.
Tom (#244363)
Speaking of OSU – there’s mounting talk around here that OSU took the week off against ‘that team from up north’. Being most generous, OSU did not show anyone anything that could be used against them in the playoffs. If they could win by running the ball up the middle, so be it. But they weren’t going to give any indication of their true capabilities.
Why should they? Since they were a lock for the playoffs, and they would have to play Oregon in the championship (and likely a third time in the playoffs), what was the benefit? A first round bye if they won, but they’d have to play an extra game if they lost. So what was the benefit?
It also is clear that OSU made no effort to engage the strength of their team – the wideouts- into the game. The one drive they did, they flew down the field for a TD. _ichigan had no answer for that. It is almost as if OSU was taking the last game off to rest players. Except they didn’t rest players.
The implications of this are huge. The big rivalries are typically held the week of thanksgiving. But if your team has a spot in the playoffs, why show anyone anything? Give the players the week off. Who cares about the game (see how the Chiefs completely shut their team down against the Broncos yesterday)? Sure, boosters won’t like it, but if OSU wins the national title, they’ll live with it.
Re: Congestion Tax
I wonder what would happen if the citizens just didn’t pay it? Take the EZ-Pass transponder off the dash, and when the ‘pay by mail’ option comes in, they just throw it in the trash. Massive civil disobedience. Would the state really go after tens of thousands of citizens?
Also, saw that the FDNY has come out publicly saying this is idiotic and will have a major impact on staffing.
It’s going to take a lot of convincing for me to believe OSU didn’t care about beating MI ha ha. The stories I read was Day’s job was being questioned solely because he has lost 4 in a row to MI. IIRC OSU had beaten MI like 12/13 games before that.
But yeah, it all worked out for them anyway. One of the things I think elite teams understand better than most is knowing to peak near the end of the season and they do have the privilege of losing a game generally speaking whether they deserve that or not.
It’s all part of what makes college football interesting.
The NIL era is going to make the gap between top programs and the rest bigger I suspect.
Was the OSU coaches job in direr straits with a win against MI and lose of the National Championship or a lose to MI and winning the Nationals. If it were the NFL option 2 would obviuosly be preferred by way of KC versus Denver.
I think sitting your best players down or worse playing them but not expecting best effort is a losing strategy. The alternative of protecting players from injury is given too much weight in my estimation.
I think the better player stocked teams appear to peak towards season end because the teams with less player abilities max out on the season long learning curve -as do the better stocked teams – and the result is a starker showing difference in the underlying player abilities.
DeanP,
I am pretty sure that Ohio State would have won the Big Ten east if they beat Michigan. So you want us to believe that they decided that they did not care about (a) beating Michigan (b) getting a chance to pay Oregon back (c) winning the Big Ten title and (d) getting a bye in the playoffs. I don’t think so.
And Kenneth is right. Maybe you sit your stars. Both you don’t play them and not try to win.
Lesser teams also tend to not have a strong bench so the inevitable injuries take a larger toll on them.
Well rested or rusty after a week off? More typical is letting the starters play a series or two and then sitting.
There is a lot of luck with injuries in football. Florida State got the royal screw job last year when their QB went down late in the season and they were eliminated from the playoff even though they were undefeated.
I agree – it is far fetched, but what do they gain if they play Oregon? A first round bye? They gain that by not beating Michigan. They had as much time off as Oregon did, and will play the same number of games as those that got the bye.
The 12-team championship tourney has changed the game – just as NIL has changed the game. It is now the Junior NFL and teams will start treating it as such. If that means sitting your players the last week of the season, so be it!
Now, I also know that there are only two people that would have been in on this: Ryan Day and Chip Kelly (OC and play caller). The players did not know. I doubt even the other coaches would have known.
Players sitting out non-CFP bowl games (opting out) for fear of injury has become common now. Can’t say I blame them. Fan attendance of other bowl games looked rather sparse this year.
DeanP wrote: “It is now the Junior NFL and teams will start treating it as such. If that means sitting your players the last week of the season, so be it!”
That might well happen in future. But you provide no evidence that has happened. Just the opposite since Ohio State did not rest their stars.
—–
DeanP wrote: “The players did not know. I doubt even the other coaches would have known.”
They might not have known before the game started. But it would not have taken long for them to figure it out. That would have been a terrific way to destroy trust between players and coaches.
DeanP wrote: “but what do they gain if they play Oregon?”
At the risk of being repetitive:
(a) beating Michigan
(b) payback against Oregon
(c) winning the Big Ten title
(d) getting a bye in the playoffs
Tom Scharf,
The expanded playoffs might be the end of the other bowl games.
A bye in the CFP playoffs was the kiss of death this year. It’s no longer a good thing in the NFL either. Speculation is that it’s because the players now get three days off during bye weeks.
I think that Andy Reid is 5-1 in playoff games following a playoff bye. I don’t know how typical that is in the NFL.
MikeM (244398)
And none of those things matter if the goal is to win a national title. The bye was inconsequential – even if the bye is shown to hurt teams (I am not making that claim – one data point does not make a trend).
It was inconsequential because OSU was in a position where they’d play the same number of games as a bye team.
It also is evident that the team was extremely frustrated at the end of the UM game – re: the flag planting fight. The team knew that with the talent they had, the game should not have been close. It put a chip on their shoulder which they used to rout Tennessee – and Oregon. Will they continue against Texas? who knows. That’s why they play the game.
On a side note about getting a bye: In MLB, getting a bye in the first round has not been a good thing. Since 2022, the records of the bye teams winning the divisional season is 6-6. The NL bye team record is an abysmal 1-5.
In 3 seasons of the current MLB playoff setup, 6 of 12 bye teams have made the LCS while 6 of 24 non-bye teams have made it. The bye teams have twice the success rate. I’d say that gettng a bye has been a good thing.
Of course, the sample size is too small to draw a firm conclusion. My guess is that as the sample size grows, the advantage of a bye will turn out to be even better.
Facebook is removing the fact checking scolds and replacing them with something similar to community notes on X. All the credentialed misinformation professionals must be weeping.
Zuckerberg: “the fact checkers have become too politically biased”, “we are moving our trust and safety teams out of CA and moving them to Texas”.
Ouch. That’s not going to go over well with the usual suspects…
See the video here:
https://www.wsj.com/tech/meta-ends-fact-checking-on-facebook-instagram-in-free-speech-pitch-8e46ad52?st=GWwb6U&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
The legacy media is marketing this as pandering to the Trump administration but yet never saw social media companies adjusting policies to Biden’s preferences as pandering.
Facebook has also said it plans to introduce AI bots to increase engagement. One of their test bots described itself as a “proud, black, queer, momma of 2 & truth teller. Your realest source for life’s ups and downs.”…
Put two and two together and you have community notes dominated by AI pretending to be normal people. Let’s not also forget that Texas contains Austin. It’s own little slice of Cali.
I always thought it was weird that there is this unquestioned goal of having a single unified Ministry of Truth when most of the contentious topics are mired in uncertainty.
One should be skeptical of those who promote one size fits all censorship, these promoters always feel the censors will be aligned with their views.
Why not just allow people to pick their own filters and modify them whenever they please?
I don’t have any problem if somebody voluntarily wants to only view the truth as determined by the government ministry. It shouldn’t be the default but it should be one of the options.
Tom Scharf wrote: “I always thought it was weird that there is this unquestioned goal of having a single unified Ministry of Truth when most of the contentious topics are mired in uncertainty. ”
That goal is not weird. It is evil.
Mike M.
January 7, 2025 at 9:18 am
The bye teams are the better regular schedule teams and much better than some of the non bye teams. If we are attempting to determine the effects of the time off the bye provides , the team performance rating has to be factored in.
Tom Scharf,
“most of the contentious topics are mired in uncertainty”
That is only part of it. The most contentious topics ALSO have huge values based weighting. If your fundamental ‘world view’ is that:
1) all white people are “privileged” and all are irredeemably, utterly prejudiced against blacks, and
2) all of history must be interpreted as conflicts between (evil racist) occupiers and (innocent, non-racist) occupied,
Then accepting this, your world view has no uncertainty, and all other factual uncertainties are 100% discounted in light of that overriding political certainty.
It is, IMHO, an evil and destructive POV, but (unfortunately) one held by many influential people…. including the vast majority working in academia. Among the general public, the bluer the state, the greater the fraction of people who hold those views.
I was able to come up with a larger set of data for win/loss records of NFL teams after a bye week from 2003-2024 in the link below.
I thought it might be for the regular season, but looking at variation in the total decisions by teams it has to include the playoffs. Any way the overall record for all NFL teams is 764 wins, 4 ties and 642 loses after a bye week.
If it were regular season only, the team performance difference could be minimized by the random effect of who the laidoff team plays after a bye week. No effect would suggest the same number of loses and wins.
I’ll have to find more detailed data to do a proper analysis.
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/trend/win_trends/is_after_bye?range=yearly_all
Kenneth,
Wouldn’t we expect the scheduling of a bye week to be completely random in terms of the strength of the next opponent? If so, it is hard for me to see how that ratio (746 to 642) could happen save for that a bye week is (moderately) advantageous. Of course, pros vs college is an inscrutable variable.
One thing to consider: a bye week in college football playoffs ALSO means home field advantage…. which alone is usually considered a significant advantage. That all four bye teams (higher ranking, home field advantage) lost suggests to me the rankings are just wrong.
Steve,
The bye week in college football means losing a potential home field game. The second round is at the bowl game location. So OSU, Penn St. , and UT got a warm-up game in front of their home crowd. Then OSU played Oregon at the Rose Bowl. No home field for Oregon.
As for the strength of the opponent after a bye, I don’t believe it is random. In fact, it is the better of the two lower seed teams. So in this case, Oregon had to play the better of OSU vs Tennessee. On paper, there wasn’t much to differentiate the two. On the field, there was. Ariz State had to play the winner of the UT/Clemson game – where UT was clearly a better team.
Had it been a 16 team tourney and no byes, Oregon would have probably played Clemson (or maybe Ole Miss or South Carolina) at Oregon. That game would have allowed Oregon to get any rust off that had gathered over the month off.
SteveF
January 7, 2025 at 6:37 pm
Yes, as I noted, if the data were entirely from regular season games random opponents would be a reasonable assumption. Unfortunately the data includes post season games where opponent strength is not random. We can estimate that post season byes, which are only 2 per season presently and I believe 4 at one time, are 1/16 to 1/8 of the total season bye weeks. Therefore ,of the approximate 1400 bye weeks, the play offs would account for approximately 170 bye weeks. For the playoffs to account for the total win lose difference it would have had to be portioned by 137 wins and 34 wins. That seems an unrealistically high win portion and thus I would conclude the a bye week gives a slight advantage in regular season play and a greater one in the playoffs were the opponents are not random and actully considered by regular season play of inferior skill.
That should have been 137 wins and 34 loses.
Was in hurry to get to the barber shop and get rid of my holiday mop.
Kenneth,
Prior to 2020, there were 4 teams a year with playoff byes. So 17 years with 4 byes and 4 years (2024 is not yet in the books) with 2 byes. A total of 76 playoff byes. So even if the home team won all of those, it would still leave a regular season advantage for the bye.
My guess is the primary advantage for a bye week in the NFL is injury recovery. You also get two weeks to plan for your next opponent which allows some advantage in game strategy planning.
In the playoffs the teams getting a bye are theoretically the better team so that throws a wrench into everything. For this years CFP the teams getting the bye weren’t necessarily the better team and that may just be an anomaly of seeding and GA losing their QB.
Mike M.
January 8, 2025 at 9:52 am
Mike, I am writing this as I calculate in attempting to account for the total of the wins/loses/ties in the link I referenced.
Starting with the regular season byes starting in 1990 there were 32 per year for 34 years through 2023 giving a number of bye weeks of 1088. The total number of bye weeks from the link is 1392. Next I have to account for playoff bye weeks. From 1990 to 2019 there were 4 per year for 30 years for a total 120. For 2020 to 2023 there were 2 per year for a total of 8. From 1978 to 1989 there was a wild card round in each conference, which meant that for the link total, 6 teams had a bye week. For our purposes since only 2 teams had an advantage of playing an unrested team and thus that count would be 2 per year. For the link the total is 72. With this information I can account for 1288 bye weeks of the 1392 from the link. For our purposes I can account for 152 playoff bye weeks.
If my calculations are correct I have to find an additional 104 bye weeks. I thought I saw somewhere that there were regular season bye weeks prior to 1990. I do not remember that, but now I have to look.
In 1993 there were 16 games over 18 weeks with 2 bye weeks per team. Now I have find 72 bye weeks.
In 1960 there were 13 NFL teams requiring 13 bye weeks. In 1966 there were 15 teams requiring 15 bye weeks. That leaves 44 bye weeks unaccounted.
Kenneth Fritsch wrote: “I was able to come up with a larger set of data for win/loss records of NFL teams after a bye week from 2003-2024 in the link below.”
Was that date range wrong? It is what I used.
Kenneth,
I think that regular season NFL byes started in 1999 when the ne Cleveland Browns made 31 teams. I don’t see any point in going further back.
I may finally be able to achieve my lifelong dream of driving to the coast and watching a sunset over …
The Gulf of America!
Trump is almost worth it for the comedy value alone.
Mike M.
January 8, 2025 at 12:29 pm
Mike, I used the all selection for that link and it goes back to 1990 regular season byes and includes the byes for the 1960 and 1966 seasons. The playoff byes go back to 1978.
I can account within 44 byes to the link byes using the data as described. For our puposes I believe the 152 playoff byes are correct. The regular season byes for our purposes, by including the 44 missing byes, would be 1278.
You would have the playoff byes correct for the time period you selected, but I think you were using my all selection data for total wins,ties and loses which came from the all selection.
Tom Scharf
January 8, 2025 at 2:18 pm
Trump off topic means the media is off topic and there is no discussion of the serious issues. In the end I do not know how this plays out since the media is going to present any serious policy that reduces the size of government very negatively.
Whatever serious issues need legislation should be seriously presented even if the Democrats and their press toadies fight it and win. At least the public will know where they stand and that the battle is over government power. There was a WSJ article today implying the Republican efforts to reduce government will go nowhere -they hope.
Kenneth Fritsch: “Trump off topic means the media is off topic”.
I am curious as to why you think that the one follows the other. And perhaps also what you mean by “off topic”.
I am guessing it has something to do with the 19 seconds starting at 24:29 of a 72 minute press conference. Transcript here:
https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/transcript/donald-trump-press-conference-mar-a-lago-january-7-2025/
Off topic to me is buying Greenland and taking back the Panama Canal and basically any topic not involving the reduction of the government’s reach. On topic for me would also include enforcing existing laws such as those dealing with immigration.
I thought we were going to invade Greenland and take it by force. How hard could that be? I’m sure all those clever lawyers can find a loophole somewhere to justify it. I’m pretty sure they are developing WMD’s up there.
China buying Greenland would really set the cat amongst the pigeons!
Taking over Panama is like Russia taking Ukraine.
Same morals.
Who is going to stop you?
More a ploy to get an agreement on cheaper canal charges , one feels.
–
Off topic I guess.
Trumps tax breaks continuing is the big issue. Even the Democrats made. No effort to raise them in office and secretly evetpybody is hanging out for them.
angech,
China has been working on getting control of both Greenland and the Panama Canal. They don’t want to annex them, they want to make those countries dependent on China via Belt and Road. That way China can control them without having to bother to govern them.
angech,
For small business owners, Trump’s 2017 tax reductions are a very big deal. There will be a push to get them extended via reconciliation, but it will be contentious, especially if some if the ‘most MAGA’ Republicans in the House object. The thing that is difficult is that reconciliation is supposed to be ‘deficit neutral’…. what passes is supposed to not make deficits worse. Extending the 2017 tax cuts means there are supposed to be offsets. Canceling most of Biden’s green boondoggles will help, but may not be enough.
Could be ugly unless Republicans have solid unanimity, something they have never had in the past 3 decades. They are more like a herd of house-cats caught out in a rainstorm.
Truth is, If Trump reduces regulatory burdens the economy will grow much faster….. but it is hard to quantify that influence to say how much deficits will fall.
It only takes a couple Republicans who care about the federal budget to tank these bills. Libertarians aren’t all dead. That’s likely going to be a problem.
Here’s the WSJ article on the the effect of the bye week:
https://www.wsj.com/sports/football/nfl-bye-week-advantage-1e2f5d6c?st=HSG5DV&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
They look at points scored above average.
“ From 2012 to 2023, the researchers found that the bye-week edge essentially disappeared, down to a negligible 0.3 points. That also led them to a conclusion: the boost likely had more to do with the extra time teams had to practice and prepare for their next opponent, not from the additional rest time. ”
Reference: https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/behavioral-economics/articles/10.3389/frbhe.2024.1479832/full
DeWitt Payne
January 9, 2025 at 11:10 am
Thanks, DeWitt for the references. Interesting models and results.
It is my impression from watching teams that have had time off that they have lost some of their performance edge and it takes them time into the game to recover it.
I admit to not watching that many NFL games lately. Watching the Bears makes me yell at the TV too much. I will go out of my way to watch Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. Sorry, Aaron but age has apparently caught up with you.
Funny headline from the Babylon Bee?
“Meta Says Fact-Checkers Were the Problem. Fact-Checkers Rule That False”
Nope. that was a real headline from the New York Times.
LA is going to have some serious questions to answer when entire urban neighborhoods are burnt to the ground. It looks like a nuke hit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34YkN-ISh_E
Not everything is preventable but the city needs to explain why their firefighting plan failed so miserably.
Sections of the LA basin burns on a somewhat regular basis.
Combine dry, untrimmed , and dense brush covered hills and high winds for a tinderbox just waiting for a spark.
Now that the brush cover has been burned off the hills, next will come mudslides.
Before shake roof tiles were outlawed, the fire losses for homes were bad. Losses of 1000 + homes in a limited area were common.
But building on hillsides that act as a chimney for fire has its own special place in fire management.
Mike M,
“Nope. that was a real headline from the New York Times.”
One of the great things about the left is that they completely lack capacity for introspection. Of COURSE the “fact checkers” are absurdly left-biased. Of COURSE they don’t think so. All assholes, all the time.
Ed Forbes,
“Before shake roof tiles were outlawed, ”
What were outlawed were shake (aka wooden) roofs.
Imitation (ceramic) ‘shake roof tiles’ are not a problem.
I just talked to my brother who lives well south of LA so isn’t in the fire zone. He pointed out that it’s hard to fight fires or prevent fires from spreading when there’s no water at the fire hydrants and a shortage of firefighters because of budget cuts. A law was passed about ten years ago that was supposed to increase the amount of stored water in reservoirs. No money has been spent yet.
First they said demand was too high which caused low water pressure then later said it was power outages taking down pumps. I don’t think they have any idea what’s going on.
What little I saw of news conferences wasn’t confidence inspiring.
I listened to an episode of the California insider podcast (I think it was a representative of farmers) about 9 months ago and the guest stated that about 80 or 90% of the heavy rain that California had received had gone back into the ocean in order to protect some small fish. Just incredible that environmental extremists can cause so much damage. On the other hand, Californians have been voting these people into office. Maybe this will lead to substantial changes for the better because it is such obvious stupidity and dereliction of duty.
Before it becomes ancient history, Tom Scharf and I had a discussion about the male and female golf touring pros. Tom mentioned that he thought that the women putted better than the men. That is not true. The leading male putter takes 27.38 parts per round and the leading female butter takes 28.12 what’s per round which is a big difference in a four round tournament. However, the women are much more accurate drivers than the men, with the leading female driver hitting 88% of the fairways. The women are very good ball strikers but from the statistics and what I have observed in watching several tournaments and playing in several pro ams they are not as good putters or chippers as the men. https://www.golfmonthly.com/tour/lpga-vs-pga-tour-pro-how-the-stats-compare
That was a pretty good game tonight. Very entertaining. Too bad the Penn State QB choked at the end. He will remember that INT forever unfortunately.
Australia regularly suffers severe and massive fire outbreaks.
Worse than America as some of our native trees need their seeds scorched to be able to regenerate.
Numerous lives lost and inquiries held.
Conclusions.
Within 5 years of a massive fire season everyone forgets about the danger and rebuilds in the bush where they will burn down again [like the Hollywood hills I guess].
Cleaning out old growth by limited and controlled burn backs reduces the fire risk immensely.
Downside in grape growing areas like California and southern Australia is that smoke from real or controlled fires taints the grapes making those harvests which occur after the burn back and fire seasons undrinkable.
Pressure from growers to not burn back or at the right time means burn back policies, after 5 years become suspended or dropped.
Run for the hills or really run for anywhere the fire isn’t is a good policy to save your life. Let the house burn. Do not stay and fight it. People die in houses.
If you choose to live in the bush or back blocks and want to avoid burning you need a massive area of cleared land around your house..
Dry states like California and countries like Australia depend on water and dams for survival.
Build more dams.
Rehouse the fish.
The history [ancient] of fires in California and Australia drought prone, grasslands and bush and old fuel is one of massive fires on a recurrent basis every 15-20 years after a few good seasons followed by extremely hot and dry spells.
3% swing to Republicans
It might require more analysis than putts per round. If men miss more greens or their courses feature smaller greens then they might be putting from shorter distances on average. Perhaps make percentage from 10 feet or something.
I can believe men might be better anyway because of stronger competition.
However there shouldn’t be any particular physical reason why men should be better putters.
The same is true for things like darts and pool where men are better anyway.
They recently discovered a fish that environmentalists used to hold up a Tennessee dam wasn’t genetically distinct.
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/a-tiny-endangered-fish-delayed-a-dams-construction-in-the-1970s-now-scientists-say-the-snail-darter-isnt-so-rare-after-all-180985786/
I’m sympathetic to the environment but not environmentalists.
re: men’s professional versus women’s professional putting. I believe it is increased competition. About 10 times more men play golf than women.
JDOhio,
I think any fair comparison of putting and chipping skill has to take into account distance from the hole. IIRC, the average distance to the pin after approach is longer for women than for men.
angech,
Even though the need for more water storage was recognized (and funded with municipal bonds!) in 2014, no added water storage has been constructed. The last increase in water storage near Los Angeles was put in service in 1979.
Brush thinning to reduce fire risk has been postponed/resisted/underfunded for decades.
The fire was destructive because California politics are destructive…. not other reason.
SteveF. You make a good general point about distance from the hole. However, I’ve seen several articles stating that the women from something like 100 to 150 yards, hit the ball closer to the hole. a little hard for me to understand because many of the men are super good. It is possible that the men are hitting into more difficult greens in general that are firmer than those that the women hit into.
Also, the women are playing much shorter golf courses than the men so their approach shots should be roughly comparable.
Supreme Court not helping Trump out which is a good thing in one way, but also shows Chief Justice’s true colors, which we already knew.
How many pardons will Biden issue for non crimes [ahem] on his last day?
The whole Jan 6th Kangaroo court is very likely.
Hoping Ohio State can win the game against Texas. Their offensive line is not that good although with mirrors and adjustments they have done well the last couple games. After Ohio State lost to Michigan, with all the lunatic fans I was afraid that a generational mistake would be made and that Ryan Day might be fired even though he has a ridiculously good winning record. There is no one Ohio State can hire who would be better than Ryan Day.
Elon rambled and rabbled about the LA firefires:
https://jabberwocking.com/elon-musk-is-the-new-emperor-of-misinformation/
“Reservoirs and emergency water tanks were all full before the fires started.
The fire budget was increased by $50 million.
The donations to Ukraine were in 2022 and included only small amounts of unused surplus equipment such as boots, hoses, nozzles, body armor and medication. None of this had any impact on current fire fighting.
A grand total of 12 LAFD workers were fired for neither getting a COVID vaccine nor requesting an exemption. They have long since been replaced.
Brush clearing is problematic for sure, but I’m not sure who “they” is in this sentence.
California has a poor record of doing prescribed burns. That said, only the US Forest Service—not California—halted prescribed burns temporarily in October. Everyone else, including Cal Fire, the US Park Service, BLM, native tribes, and private property owners, kept on burning. Overall, California burns about 125,000 acres per year and increased that to 250,000 acres in 2023 with plans to burn 400,000 acres in 2025.
Storm water has always drained primarily to the sea in order to prevent flooding, especially in rainy years that produce too much water to be captured. However, a significant amount is captured to recharge groundwater aquifers, and that amount has been growing ever since LA voters approved a tax levy in 2018 that goes toward storm water capture projects.
This article suggests the LA water system is not designed to put out fires the engulf the full city:
https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2025-01-09/california-fires-water-supply-problems
also
High school physics…
Geeh… yah think?
BTW: this “whiplash” is when fires happene d at Hanford too. But this was away from homes
Near Hanford, there were more fires in wet years because there was more brush to burn. Summers were always dry enough for everything to dry out.
It will be interesting to hear why they lost power?
Sounds like LA didn’t have the foresight to spend the money to have an adequate water system
I wonder what the system around here is like? ( We get Lake Michigan water. I don’t know if the pumps are sized to deal with a sudden County wide fire.)
Anyway, climate change or no climate change, cities and states should be funding large enough water reserves for somewhat predictable large city wide fires.
One of the first videos I saw was of one fireman hosing down a house that was completely involved while another was filming it on their phone. It was a bit strange.
From one perspective when a Cat4+ hurricane hits FL it is just expected there will be a lot of damage. They could make building codes super robust but that would significantly increase housing and infrastructure costs. It is accepted and anticipated damage will be done.
Every hurricane is analyzed by FEMA and the damage is assessed. If there are economical ways to prevent damage (roof straps, pre-emptively cutting trees around power lines, etc.) then those are recommended.
I don’t know hardly anything about fire fighting so it is unclear whether there was a plan that didn’t work, incompetent execution of a plan, or it is just a disaster that couldn’t be stopped without serious economic sacrifice.
So Cal has been burning for a long time.
I think the basic problem is the high winds blow burning embers all over the place making the fire nearly impossible to contain, no matter how much water you have. Without the wind the fire can be cordoned off and contained, otherwise it jumps designated fire lines.
My impression was there was a lot more fire watching going on than fire fighting, basically save the people and wait for the wind to die down.
Regardless the fire officials need to explain it.
WSJ on Trump sentencing:
“This defendant has caused enduring damage to the public perception of criminal justice,” (Prosecutor) Steinglass said.
Ummmm, no. The NY justice system did that to itself. I think it can be unequivocally stated that this legal vendetta against Trump backfired. It made him a victim, what a misguided mess.
I seriously question whether Trump would have gotten elected without all the TDS. I’d almost call it a genius plan but that is too far, maybe it’s just Trump’s innate instincts. Trump the clown defeats the self appointed best and brightest.
Today’s WSJ editorial says more needs to be revealed about the water supply problem and the extent of the wild fire damage attributed to it before making judgments, but that the insurance and the CA state regulation of it is problematic. It appears to be dumb a$$ regulators making unrealistic rules about how insurance should operate.
Nothing new here: let’s move on to getting the taxpayer to cover our mistakes that are not really mistakes when we can attribute it to climate change not withstanding adapting to it.
The WSJ news section wrote a lot about the fires, but I saw nothing about the water problem in that section of the paper.
Shanghai 2019,
We added days on the front (Beijing) and aft end (Shanghai) of our 2019 RoadScholar Tour(which was excellent).
We found the Chinese we interacted with delightful. Gramatically correct English spoken with an accent which might have been several generations away from any contact with a native speaker could be quite bizarre. Our contacts knew it and really wanted to clean it up.
We had dinner in Shanghai with son of a friend who lived there, bureau chief for English magazine. I asked him what the downside of living there might be asuming one did not participate in politics nor in any political discussions.
The answer was “unappealable and sometimes adverse government actions”
The example was a residential development which was just coming to market in what had been the French Concession. The name of the place referred to the French Concession, the advertising did as well, and there was considerable investment in similarly named signs, brochures, streets etc.
As the marketing campaign commenced, the developer received a notice that there could be no reference to the French Concession in any aspect of the project. Developer had thirty days to fix this. No appeal was possible and they had to do it at considerable expense.
Think HOA writ large.
2011 Luang Prabang
Another Trip, this one to Thailand, then down the Mekong from Chiang Rai to Luang Prabang, two days in converted rice barge – narrow boat with seats from a bus, capacity 30 souls +/-.
Luang Prabang was French colonial at one time and a lot of the street layout suggests european input. We stayed at a small hotel which was run by a civil engineer, graduate of French University, but due to family obligations stuck running the place. fascinating guy. There was a dam under construciton north of Luang Prabanag which he dearly wished to be working on, but alas..
I was out on a morning walk and encountered a soldier in what looked like a North Vietnamese Uniform, soft hat, blue grey etc. He had a fairly large semi-automatic rifle over his shoulder and was standing there apparently because he’d been told to.
I said good morning and smiled at him.
He burst into tears which suggested that I might want to discover how I’d provoked this. I asked. He had some English and was able to tell me that I was the first person who’d wished him well since he’d been assigned here a few mnths earlier.
“They hate me.”
“Why?”
” Because I’m from a different village. They don’t like the government, The army never assigns us to our own towns, always someplace else.”
” how did you learn English, which is prety good?”
“From my dad who learned it during the war.”
I wished him well and was thanked for caring.
I tend to interact with the locals to the extent possible with or without the language. There are some other stories, partitulcarly from China along similar lines.
Sorry for my absence, we are dealing with our continuing medical issues.
Two fire water problems.: instantaneous flow and total reservoir quantity.
Maintaining fire flow in a new subdivision is a complex engineering problem, normally requiring modeling and using existing hydrant flow tests as starting data. Pipeline sizes are almost always based on fire flows, not domestic supply. In a single family subdivision in Sarasota we would normally size the lines for two fires at the same time for maximum flow. It boggles my mind the size of lines required for that Palisades fire alone. Remember all the homeowners were running their hoses and sprinklers as a preventative measure, as well as all the hydrants being on.
But LA had an additional problem. They also ran out of water in their holding tanks.
Janisse Quiñones, chief executive and chief engineer of the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power:
“Quiñones said that the hydrants in the Palisades rely on three large water tanks with about 1 million gallons each. The first ran dry at 4:45 p.m. Tuesday; the second at 8:30 p.m.; and the third was dry at 3 a.m. Wednesday.”
Some math:
Assume 2 hoses at 250 gpm each for three hours per fire or 90,000 gallons per fire. Three million gallons would be enough for 33 home fires. [they had incoming flows to the tanks but those were a trickle compared to the usage flows]
I’ve seen news reports of 9,000 structures destroyed.
It boggles the mind.
Check my assumptions and math please!
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2025-01-08/lack-of-water-from-hydrants-in-palisades-fire-is-hampering-firefighters-caruso-says
LAFD Assistant Chief Kristine Larson on why you should care about diversity:
“You want to see somebody that responds to your house, your emergency, whether it’s a medical call or a fire call, that looks like you. It gives that person a little bit more ease, knowing that somebody might understand their situation better.
‘Is she strong enough to do this?’ or ‘You couldn’t carry my husband out of a fire.’ Which my response is, ‘he got himself in the wrong place if I have to carry him out of a fire.'”
…
What happened in FL in 2005 is that the insurance industry threw out historical averages for damages after a couple bad hurricane years and then assumed 30% more damage due to climate change using climate models.
The US then had 11 straight years without a major hurricane landfall and the damages ended up being right at the historical average. Somehow inusrance didn’t go down.
I expect something similar to happen in CA. The insurance industry seems to effectively operate on a post pay model with large increases after major disasters. Recency bias in humans tends to give them a pass for this.
A lot of insurance companies left FL and many may leave CA. They don’t really like the super volatile very bad year disaster model and prefer the more mundane and predictable auto crash model.
Ah Russell,
I’m remembering Hardy-Cross and computer modeling the Fire System at Cheasapeake Bay Detachment in 1985. I inherited the project when the guy who actually knew how to do it quit.
It was really interesting, and somewhere I have a copuy of the final report.
DaveJR,
A firefighter in full kit doesn’t have much skin exposed because exposed skin gets burned. About all you can really tell is height and weight. So an invalid is SOL? Oh, puhleeze. In woke terms, that’s blatantly ableist
Tom Scharf
January 10, 2025 at 12:47 pm
Tom, the WSJ editorial to which I referred noted that the state of CA regulators had to decide/approve the algorithm used to determine insurance premiums. That is why some insurance companies left the state. There is a property insurance in CA that is available for property owners who cannot otherwise obtain insurance and it is currently way under capitalized.
I am curious in Florida, where you have catastrophic events like in CA, how premiums are determined.
John, Your post:
“I’m remembering Hardy-Cross and computer modeling the Fire System at Cheasapeake Bay Detachment in 1985. I inherited the project when the guy who actually knew how to do it quit.”
Along those lines, we had one guy who had done a lot of water fire flow modeling projects within the Sarasota County Utility system, so we always farmed that task to him. He knew more about their system than their engineers did. They were always calling him for ‘free’ consulting when they had fire flow issues. I was happy for him to help our local government but always worried about our liability.
Another fire flow issue. When you size a system for fire flows, you grossly overdesign it for potable domestic use. That leads to water quality issues.
DeWitt Payne
January 10, 2025 at 12:58 pm
I guess the person under duress would have to query the attire covered fire fighter with something like: “I cannot tell visually what you are and thus I have to ask if you are like me.” The proper reply would be: “yes, I am a human being just like you.”
A problem only long-time Floridians understand. Yesterday’s weather was 61 high and 41 low in Sarasota, so the County opened emergency shelters because of the extreme cold. We are such pantywaists!.
https://www.mysuncoast.com/2025/01/09/cold-weather-shelters-available-sarasota-county-tonight/
Russell, there is an ancient brick sever which has been sectioned in one end of the Roman Forum. It is egg-shaped – smaller diameter down. Clearly they understood that they needed to keep the flow velocity up in low flow conditions. Those guys were so impressive. It’s a bit too bad that a lot of the people who see these things have no idea just how marvelous they are.
John, do you have a link?
Russell,
Thats “sewer” in the note above.
Russell, no link but I do have some photos of it. I’m warming up to putting an album together on Flickr the better to share photos with you guys. we’re off to Cairo on Monday and I’m trying to get the photo equipment under control – ie. fit the bag.
john
I googled the population of the pacific palisades 23,159 (2021)
So their capacity up at the level of the Palisades is about 130 gallons per resident . That’s about 3 or 4 water heaters worth of water.
> 3e6/23159
[1] 129.5393
Anymore and they are pumping up from the lower level.
Lucia,
That’s plenty of day tank storage for potable use. Assuming 50 GPD/ capita they have 2.6 days. It’s fire reserve where this falls short.
“You want to see somebody that responds to your house, your emergency, whether it’s a medical call or a fire call, that looks like you.”
Proving, in case there was any doubt, that she is an incompetent idiot. I think it is safe to say bad things are going to happen to local politicians in southern CA.
Insurance costs in FL are absurd, which is why I self insure against wind damage. Cuts my insurance cost by ~80%.
Thomas W Fuller
When you put out information like the following
“://jabberwocking.com/elon-musk-is-the-new-emperor-of-misinformation/
“Reservoirs and emergency water tanks were all full before the fires started.”
–
Do you do it because it is accurate?
This Kevin Drum fellow (sounds familiar) seems to have a dislike for Musk and selective choice of his statistics to portray things in the best pro Democrat way that he can.
Would you consider checking some of these other statistics/ views as to their accuracy and advise if you still consider Mr Drum to be an unbiased and more to the point accurate source to quote, assuming he is.
–
“The Santa Ynez Reservoir is connected to the Los Angeles water supply system, and authorities said it was shut down for repairs at the time the fires erupted, “leaving a 117 million gallon water storage complex empty in the heart of the Palisades,” the newspaper reported on Friday.”
That report may have relevance to how full those reservoir tanks actually were pre fire ( NB RK and Lucia)
–
“The fire budget was increased by $50 million.”
Seems at odds with a lot of other reports
“When asked about how the budget cuts, which slashed the budget by $17,553,814 from $837,191,237 to $819,637,423, Crowley said that they “did impact our ability to provide service.” ”
–
Joe Rogan and Trump talked about the fire unpreparedness in California 3 months ago.
Newsom blocked Trumps idea of more water storage for California with the last bad outbreak in his first term.
Why do you not mention this instead?
–
Not trying to have a go at you.
Spain seems to have a fire problem like California and Australia. The eucalyptus gum trees grow prolifically in dry climes and burn very readily.
Are they as prolifically in Spain as in California?
Sad. Moonshadows was an iconic Malibu restaurant that hung out over the Pacific Ocean on the PCH. I Frequented it in the 1970’s when Pacific Gas and Electric Company was a major client of ours. It was destroyed in the fires; Images, before and after:
https://x.com/rklier21/status/1877874332782739713
“In Malibu, the Palisades fire damaged or destroyed iconic restaurants such as Moonshadows and Gladstones, as well as many businesses within Palisades Village.”
https://www.latimes.com/food/story/2025-01-09/running-list-los-angeles-restaurants-destroyed-palisades-eaton-fires
The LBGQT-DEI Los Angeles city officials are having a cat [or maybe dog] fight:
“LA Fire Chief Kristin Crowley doubles down on throwing Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass under the bus.
Crowley said Bass’ leadership did “negatively impact” their efforts to stop the fire.
“Let me be clear. The $17M budget cut and elimination of our civilian positions like our mechanics did and has and will continue to severely impact our ability to repair our apparatus.”
“Over the last 3 years, we have been clear that the fire department needs help. We can no longer sustain where we are.”
“I have also requested multiple interim budgets… to show how understaffed, under-resourced, and underfunded the LAFD is.”
Video:
https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1877851846330507752
Maybe we should lend them DeSantis to put the fires out.
“In Malibu, the Palisades fire damaged or destroyed iconic restaurants such as Moonshadows and Gladstones, as well as many businesses within Palisades Village.”
I remember Gladstones, site of my first (and last) oyster consumption.
The Texas/ Ohio State game is broadcasting in SkyCast on ESPNEWS.
Harold, your post:
“I remember Gladstones, site of my first (and last) oyster consumption.”
That may be a story better left untold. [BARF!]
If the situation were not so tragic, this woke clown show would be fun to watch.
They have no idea how leadership in a disaster needs to work. This fire may burn for a long time….breaking news:
“LA Mayor Karen Bass FIRES DEI Fire Chief Kristin Crowley after Crowley said today leadership “failed” amid the fires – Daily Mail
A reporter asked: “did they [city leadership] fail you?”
Crowley responded “yes”
Now she has been FIRED.”
Also today:
“LA Mayor Karen Bass is now claiming people don’t like her and want her to resign because she’s a black woman”
The Palisades 117M gallon reservoir has been empty since last Feb when a “several foot tear” was discovered in the cover. The city finally signed a contract in November to fix it. Sounds exactly like CA environmental and regulatory BAU.
That one is going to stick.
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2025-01-10/as-flames-raged-in-palisades-a-key-reservoir-nearby-was-offline
FYI: latimes.com paywall is temporarily off for the disaster.
FL insurance industry is heavily regulated. Rate increases must be approved by the state. FL tried to stop rate increases in 2006 and many insurers chose to leave the state instead. FL also has a state run insurer of last resort (Citizens) and at one point IIRC about 30% of homes were insured through it.
Rates are dependent on the reinsurance industry is my understanding.
Meta ends its DEI programs.
https://www.axios.com/2025/01/10/meta-dei-memo-employees-programs
McDonald’s, Walmart, and Amazon also dial back DEI. The end is almost as sudden as the start. I’m guessing nobody wants to be the poster child for DEI litigation from the new administration.
Not everyone is taking it well.
Get Woke, Go up in Smoke:
“Gov. Gavin Newsom asks Joe Biden to focus on combating “misinformation” about the wildfires in California. That’s what he wants to prioritize as his state is burning to the ground???”
Video:
https://x.com/libsoftiktok/status/1877801831536943540
The Woke Clown Show is ongoing:
“LA’s $750,000-a-year water chief who allegedly oversaw the emptying of the Santa Ynez Reservoir, previously said the “number one” thing she cared about in her role was “equity.”
No wonder why LA is burning. Every leader is a DEI hire.”
Video:
https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1877880626600386641
The Governor jumps into the finger pointing:
“Gov. Gavin Newsom of California ordered an inquiry into a loss of water pressure after it was revealed that a reservoir was offline when the fires started.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/10/us/la-fires-gavin-newsom-water-supply.html
The fires are still raging out of control and all the senior government officials are mostly interested in joining a circular firing squad and CYA.
It’s a disgrace.
Although DEI may have affected some recent problems, it doesn’t hurt to remember that bureaucratic incompetence was skillfuly deployed for decades (maybe longer) before anyone had thought of it (DEI).
Actually centuries if you want to savor French bureacracy in the time of Colbert.
I agree John, but if we compare how Florida prepares for, and responds to, natural disasters and this California woke clown show it looks bad for DEI. The Mayor, the Fire Chief and the Water Department chief are all examples of DEI disasters.
In fact, the top three Fire Department officials are all lesbians,. The Chief only hires people from her dating pool.
Russell,
Our extended family has and has had lesbians in the last three generations, each successful by the standards of their time, two remarkably so. As far as I can see, lesbianism isn’t a reliable indicator of incompetence, or maybe anything else.
Also, what do we do here in Florida in preparation for our type of natural disasters which is at all analogous to storing a whole lot of water?
john ferguson,
In my county, there are scheduled controlled burns of forested areas to reduce underbrush growth and avoid big fires (that burn large trees). This is so common (multiple areas each year) that nobody even talks much about it. I don’t know about controlled burns in other parts of Florida.
Ditto in Sarasota County, I have helped out [filled the Gatorade cups!] on a few controlled burns. It’s actually boring. They ‘back burn’ [burn against a gentle wind], which progresses quite slowly.
John, your comment:
“As far as I can see, lesbianism isn’t a reliable indicator of incompetence,”
I agree, but when the top three officials in the fire department are all lesbians, I imagine merit is not how they got those positions.
https://x.com/amuse/status/1877665383643074886
Good examples of preparation here. Russell, your point also seems valid.
It does make it harder to allege diversity though.
Another note about FL hurricane preparation (although not analogous to water storage): My town recently constructed a police/emergency operations center, designed to withstand winds above 190 mph, which is well into category 5. [I hope they situated the generators in an area not subject to flooding!]
Not perhaps as important as having enough shelter space for those who are unable to evacuate prior to the storm, but it’s valuable to allow those who are marshalling recovery resources, to maintain communications and monitor the local situation.
“lesbianism isn’t a reliable indicator of incompetence, or maybe anything else”
I completely agree with the intent of this thought. People need to be judged on their performance. Plenty of incompetent straight people. Incompetence is the problem where it exists.
OTOH the DEI activists try to use identity as a protective barrier against claims of incompetence. One is a *-ist if one attacks a government official of a protected class.
Sometimes that is exactly the case though, people see a protected class in leadership and automatically assume incompetence based on the theory they were hired for their class instead of merit.
One can simultaneously be a DEI hire and competent. Are they? One has to do some work to find out.
I’ll take a lesbian in government leadership all day long if they are competent and for smaller government and free speech, ha ha. Because of cultural tribalism a betting man would say that libertarian lesbians are probably less than 50% of the group but it is proper to allow these individuals to speak for themselves.
I look at DEI hires in a similar way to nepotism. The boss’s nephew may actually be competent but when one is hired for reasons other than merit than it is proper to be more skeptical.
john ferguson wrote: “As far as I can see, lesbianism isn’t a reliable indicator of incompetence, or maybe anything else.”
Of course not. But if you hire someone because of their sex, or skin color, or sexual orientation you will likely get someone less competent than the norm even for a government bureaucracy.
——
john ferguson: “what do we do here in Florida in preparation for our type of natural disasters which is at all analogous to storing a whole lot of water?”
Thinking carefully about what will be required in the event of likely disasters and preparing to be able to put that into effect when needed. The details may be different, but the principles are the same whether you are in hurricane country or wildfire country. FL prepares effectively for hurricanes; CA does not prepare effectively for wildfires.
As HaroldW stated hurricane preparations are mostly a building code issue. You rarely see significant damage to government infrastructure from hurricanes.
FL has somewhat of an unfair advantage because the bulk of its infrastructure has been progressively built to modern standards in the last 50 years. The bulk of damage and flooding occurs to structures that are >30 years old.
Other things like cutting of trees around power lines and upgrading infrastructure.
However a Cat5 will eventually hit an urban area again and it will be a gigantic disaster. Milton hit 180 mph in the gulf (of America!) and if that happened coming on shore the building codes won’t help most structures.
I talked to someone who went through Hurricane Andrew recently. Moved from room to room as the house collapsed around them.
From the link provided above about the reservoir being drained:
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2025-01-10/as-flames-raged-in-palisades-a-key-reservoir-nearby-was-offline
There have been 17 prior CA wildfires that each destroyed over 1000 structures: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_California_wildfires#Most_destructive_wildfires
So far, the current fires are the second worst.
Santa Ynez reservoir was empty– evidently for months?
Water quality? Is this intended to be drinking water? or to deal with fires?
Clearly, if it was empty, it wasn’t providing drinking water. Couldn’t they have just been able to keep it isolated– but then open valves in case of fire.
Perhaps not. But 117 million gallons vs 3 million is a lot. And what’s “significant” mean here? Could they have at least saved Pacific Palisades?
Yeah… all semi rhetorical. I don’t know the answers and i’m not implying anyone does. But seriously!!
I’d think you want it to be full to help in possibly “medium” sized fires? You want to put those out too!!!!
It seems that the issue with the empty reservoir is that they put *treated* water in the reservoir. So then they have to keep it clean, hence the cover which got torn. And they can’t just let the water sit in the reservoir, hence the need to drain it.
Isn’t it normal to treat water after it is removed from a reservoir? Maybe Russell knows.
It seems it did not occur to anyone that even if the reservoir could not be used for drinking water, it would make sense to keep water in it in case it was needed for firefighting.
And of course, there is the matter of the cover still not being repaired after 11 months.
As for the absolute necessity of the cover, it was added 20 years after filling the reservoir.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santa_Ynez_Reservoir#
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/reservoir-pacific-palisades-was-commission-fire-started-rcna187217
It wouldn’t make sense since nobody knew where the fires would start?!!! It obviously makse sense if no one knows where the fires would start– provided you aren’t not filling something else. If you don’t know where fires are going to start, you want everything full
It’ would be non-potable. freaking. What?
Aw. Geeh. They’d have a boil order.
Well, I guess I have trouble envisioning the trade off because we get our water for freakin’ Lake Michigan. If we need to “waste” some and later let it drain down to the Gulf of Mexico, that’s really not a problem.
A tear of several feet could obviously be temporarily repaired. I strongly suspect there were regulatory issues that prevented that from happening. A yellow throated sea smelt might sneak in the hole.
The article I think said something about possible bird poop contamination with a hole.
Either way a minor tear taking a reservoir off line for over a years seems crazy. Repair the tear and regularly test the water (which they probably already do). That’s what the government needs to explain, maybe they have a good explanation, but probably not.
From what little I know about water management in other places it does require some fortune telling. Do you release water from dams to allow for future flood control or do you store it up for future droughts? They allegedly use long term weather forecasts for these decisions and those are sketchy.
Tom Scharf,
Long term weather forecasts are sketchy. Possible candidate for understatement of the year.
One of the natural properties Sarasota County manages with controlled burning is the 24,500 acre tract called the Carton Reserve. It is used for water supply and public recreation. I was on the original technical committee that investigated it for public purchase.
https://www.carltonreserve.org/
Sarasota County has an educational program to inform resident about the virtues of controlled burns:
“Fire Fest! Returns Jan. 25 to Carlton Reserve”
“Sarasota County’s Fire Fest returns on Saturday, Jan. 25 to educate and inform the community about the importance of prescribed fire to the ecosystem.”
Schedule:
10 a.m.: Event opens. Campfire circle and s’mores will be available until 2 p.m., and hayrides run every 30 minutes during the event.
11 a.m.: Sarasota K9 Search and Rescue demonstration.
11:30 a.m.: Live burn demonstration (conditions permitting).
1 p.m.: Live burn demonstration (conditions permitting).
2 p.m.: Event ends.
https://www.sarasotacountyparks.com/Home/Components/News/News/7230/6700
Mike, your comment:
“Isn’t it normal to treat water after it is removed from a reservoir? Maybe Russell knows.”
My experience is that raw water is stored in reservoirs and then treated, and the finished water is stored in tanks. But all my potable water experience is here in Florida and the systems were much, much, smaller than the LA system. I would think that finished water coming out of a 100 million gallon reservoir would need some polishing, probably at least gross filtration [to remove rocks and bolts] and a re-chlorination stage.
I read somewhere that regular controlled burns were also a problem. Some species depend on occasional super hot burns to take out bigger stuff. It’s almost like they are tuned for natural fire activity.
It’s another thing entirely when you don’t want your neighborhood to burn down, but making the yellow bellied horned toad shrub disadvantaged with regular controlled burns will get the hackles up of some environmentalist and studies must be done.
Tom,
Our wilds are mostly slash pine flatwoods. The slash pine is a ‘fire climax’ species and the ecosystem requires burns to be healthy.
“Slash pine (Pinus elliottii) is a fire climax species in the Florida pinelands, meaning it’s the dominant species in a plant community that depends on frequent fires to maintain itself”
https://www.fs.usda.gov/database/feis/plants/tree/pinell/all.html#:~:text=Pinus%20elliottii
Tom, Another burn mandate…
The Myakka River system cuts through the center of Sarasota County. It is Federally designated a Wild and Scenic River and has an approved management plan whose first action item is controlled burns:
[P74]
Action 1.1 – Implement a prescribed burning and fuel reduction program involving landowners along the Myakka River. DRP shall coordinate with all landowners along the Myakka River to implement a prescribed burning and fuel reduction program. Ecological burning should be utilized where appropriate to control the encroachment of hardwood vegetation into the river marsh, restore and perpetuate pine 74 flatwoods, reduce fuel levels, increase species diversity and reduce the threat of wildfire along the Myakka River. A long-range program should be established to identify the timing, location, and extent of ecological burning needed to restore and enhance vegetation within the river area and the wild and scenic protection zone, where practicable.
https://myakkarivermanagement.org/Files/MWSRMS%20Final/MYAKKA%20WILD%20AND%20SCENIC%20RIVER%20MANAGEMENT%20PLAN%20-Final.pdf
Congressional mandate:
H.R.10350 – To amend the Wild and Scenic Rivers Act to designate the portion of the Myakka River lying within Sarasota County, Florida as a component of the National Wild and Scenic Rivers System, and for other purposes.
https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/10350/text#:~:text=Congress%20%3E%20H.R.10350-,H.R.,2023%2D2024)%20%7C%20Get%20alerts
The Florida Forest Service also has an aggressive prescribed burn program in Sarasota County. They maintain the Myakka River State Park [37,000 acres] and the Myakka State Forest [8,000 acres].
https://www.floridastateparks.org/PrescribedFire
With all this, we still have wildfires.
When one breaks out the Florida Forest Service takes command and they run it like a military operation. All other agencies support them. I have been on one response. They have assets prepositioned. They also respond with aircraft:
https://ccmedia.fdacs.gov/content/download/67652/file/florida-wildfire-aviation-plan.pdf
Links:
https://www.fdacs.gov/Forest-Wildfire/Wildland-Fire/Current-Wildfire-Information
https://www.fdacs.gov/Forest-Wildfire/Wildland-Fire
Right now, Florida has 26 ‘Active Wildfire Points’. All but 4 of them are contained, Image:
https://x.com/rklier21/status/1878215262605901911
Interactive map:
https://ffs.firesponse.com/public/
Last post, I promise!
Michael Shellenberger has a really interesting comment on what LA and CA officials should have done:
https://x.com/shellenberger/status/1877757377597862370
Mike M,
Shellenberger is not getting invited to meetings of ‘the powers that be’….. even if he wouldn’t go.
Seems California, like many places, traded government competence for woke virtue signaling and ‘environmental sensitivity’. It is unfortunate that so many people around LA suffered the resulting terrible consequences. Maybe voters in California will remember this in future elections.
But it is California, so who knows.
I am reminded by the LA fires of Hurricane Katrina inundating much of New Orleans. In both cases, catastrophe was INVITED by politicians who ignored warnings of impending catastrophe.
New Orleans being inundated had been predicted decades earlier….. but nobody raised the levees surrounding the city, in spite of decades of warning. Wildfires in California are expected, not shocking. The only shocking thing is that the authorities will not do controlled burns nor clear debris from woodland areas….. nor install more water storage in a region that suffers routine drought. It is simple incompetence.
Looks like a cease-fire in Gaza remains just out of reach….. as it has for 6 months. What keeps it out of reach? Hamas insists on being able to return to power. I doubt that will change soon.
Hamas never comes back if Israel has any say in it….. and especially not with Biden’s feckless State Department about be restaffed with more sensible people. There will be no more pressure on Israel to agree to a ceasefire and no more UN Security Counsel resolutions condemning Israel.
SteveF
January 12, 2025 at 6:33 am
Looks like a cease-fire in Gaza remains just out of reach….. as it has for 6 months. What keeps it out of reach? ”
–
Hamas is not interested in making deals for the so called hostages. Its sole purpose in capturing people instead of just killing them in the night was to inflict more pain and suffering on the Jewish settlers than the actual murders themselves.
Vile and disgusting behaviour but seen as justifiable by the Gazans [also known as Hamas].
Sure they may swap a few remaining prisoners for a thousand Gazan captives but the whole aim of this exercise is to draw out the audience of the world for as long as possible to what they see is an intolerable situation.
They have succeeded and do not care if another 40000 Gazans die for the cause.
–
Brute force will not win the day.
The Israelis will exact as much revenge as they feel they need to until no hostages are left to exact revenge for.
–
Both sides will then feel mutually happy in their misery and revenge and the situation will return to normal.
–
They both need their enemies and grudges to justify their existence, actions and religions.
angech,
I am more sanguine than you are. If the targeted killing of Hamas leaders continues for long enough, there won’t be much of Hamas left. The deaths of many thousands of Gazans is terrible, of course, but it makes a repeat of Hamas policies less attractive…… the consequences of adopting those policies (essentially, Israel must not exist) are being made very clear to Gazans. A brutal lesson for sure, but one I expect will reduce support for Hamas-like policies. I expect that ultimately Israel’s neighbors will all accept its existence, and the fighting will finally stop in the Middle East. Before that, no.
SteveF,
I think Israel’s neighbors have already accepted its existance although apparently at some internal cost due to distress of some of their citizens regarding the slaughter of Gazans.
Do you think there is any basis in this owing to apprehension about Iran and siding with Israel at least passively safer in the long run for them?
This is kind of SOP with fact checkers…
https://gavinnewsom.com/california-fire-facts/
“FACT: Wildland firefighters don’t use hydrants — they use water tenders. And that is what has been used to ensure continued water access. Three million gallons of water were stored in three large tanks for fire hydrants in the area before the Palisades fire, but the supply was exhausted because of the extraordinary nature of this hurricane-force firestorm.
FACT: The Governor has called for an independent investigation into the loss of water pressure to local fire hydrants and the reported unavailability of water supplies from the Santa Ynez Reservoir.
…
FACT: Reservoirs are full and water is available.”
Reservoirs can’t be both full and “reportedly” empty, I assume the government is capable of verifying the reservoir in question is empty. Fire fighters may not use hydrants to fight wildfires but they sure use them to try to keep neighborhoods from burning down.
Things are FACTS for their preferred narrative and the unpreferred narrative are labelled as “investigations” or not reported at all.
The government can and should get their say on what the situation is, but they should be expected to have a bias and their narrative shouldn’t be given such privilege as to shutdown other narratives. If a government is a straight shooter for a long time they will garner credibility in the same way other sources have to.
I have got to say, I didn’t see Fetterman as the new Manchin when he was elected, but that seems to be the case.
John Fetterman: A Democrat Who Can Talk Trump, or a Reckless Maverick?
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/fetterman-trump-relationship-democratic-party-1281d2c6?st=iC88sr&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
“If somebody is shocked or freaked out if I’m going to take a conversation with the president, I’d like to remind you that I’m not just for Democrats—I’m for everyone,” Fetterman said in an interview. After all, he said, “Most Pennsylvanians chose Donald Trump as our next president.”
The intellectually lazy position of talking to the opposition is the same as agreeing with them has got to go. Fetterman is my new favorite Democrat, although I’m sure he mostly still votes the party line.
Tom,
My understanding is the three, 1Mgallon reservoirs were full at the start of the fire. However, the one 117M gallon reservoir (Santa Ynez Reservoir) was empty. at the start and remains.
During fire fighting, the 1M gallon reservoirs were either empty or functionally empty during periods of firefighting. The water pressure dropped and hydrants were not operational.
Stating “FACT: Reservoirs are full and water is available.”” is deeply misleading wrt to the situation since 3 million gallons is much less than 117+3 million gallons. Yes, the 3 million were full and probably are now. If people returned to their homes in Pacific Palisades they can probably turn their faucets on and get potable water.
Fire hydrants do exist in the Pacific Palisades, and they are intended to be used there. Water tenders are used where there are no working hydrants. In context, the reference to Water Tenders and fire fighting is deeply misleading.
This is the type of “fact check” that makes people sneer at the “fact checker”. That said: it is a fact check from a politician who might potentially share blame for this. Even if he does not, likely politicians in his party are getting blame. So. Whatevs.
I do not see much changing in CA vis a vis the wild fires. The left wing politicians and voters in CA have no compelling reason to change how government operates. The idea that government must be involved in all aspects of life and that any mistakes for which government is blamed is merely right-wing propaganda is much the indoctrinated and majority thought. That thinking is not, unfortunately, relegated to CA.
In a more free market environment insurance rates would be based on what communities are doing to prevent catastrophic fire events and foregoing such precautions would result in very high rates. This process puts a market price on preventing a catastrophe and living in an area that is prone to such events.
The word I hear out of CA and it’s leftwing protectors is that there was nothing that could have been done to avoid the catastrophe. While this may or may not be the case given how governments operate, it is in fact an admission that there was no plan in place to fail and putting for all to see that it was a failure of government. Unfortunately it is not going to be seen by those who hold that government is the be all and end all.
Kenneth,
Things don’t change until they change. Yes, the current malfunctioning political system seems entrenched, but there will come a point where people say “enough, already”. The wildfires might well bring that about, at least for Angelenos if not for other Californians.
Note that Nathan Hochman defeated the incumbent Democrat L.A. County DA in a landslide. He ran as an independent, but previously ran for state attorney general as a Republican. The voters had finally had enough and went against form.
The typical argument if CA was Republican would have been “if you had more government then that disaster would not have happened”.
These events undermine the broad argument that government can solve all problems if only the voters would allow it.
Since it’s a deep blue city in a deep blue state with a blue President the usual strategy of go up the line of governance until you find somebody from the opposing party and blame them can’t be executed. You are left with “don’t politicize this” or “it couldn’t be stopped”.
Kenneth
Plausibly, there was nothing that could have been done on short notice. That doesn’t mean CA didn’t make long term mistakes that need not have been made.
The Santa Ynez reservoir being empty is emblematic. And even if a full reservoir would not have been enough for this fire, that doesn’t mean that additional reservoirs would have been out of the question if fire fighting had been a priority over the past two decades.
Also: planning over long term can involve building code designing in fire breaks. Bergen Norway has rather impressive wide streets. Why? Fire breaks!
https://thehiddennorth.com/walking-on-water-a-walk-through-the-development-of-bergens-city-centre/
Of course there is always the possibility of “too large” of a fire. But having water available, and designing in fire breaks is something that can be done long term. Fire resistant building codes can help. (I have no idea what Pacific Palisades codes are for fire resistance.)
If all the houses were like this one that survived, not only would more survive a fire, the fire wouldn’t spread as fast
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-01-13/malibu-pacific-pines-homes-survive-wildfires/104808928
Block / Stucco is everywhere in FL.
Potential building codes are fire resistant siding and even more restrictive landscaping. I think roofing codes are already good enough although everything burns when it gets hot enough.
Primarily in this scenario it is preventing the spread from wind blown burning embers.
From what I have seen in FEMA after action reports from FL hurricanes they are pretty good at identifying the problems and recommending solutions. It is up to the legislature to take action and then changes have to be phased in over many decades as existing structures are typically grandfathered in because of economic impact.
It is a real unacknowledged option that CA would just effectively say losing 30,000 structures a decade to fire is tolerable in order to keep infrastructure and housing costs lower.
In these cases like CA wild fires, responsibities and consequences have to be established and unfortunately that is not something to which governments submit. Oh, there are elections, but in states like CA and almost all large cities that means the same party and maybe different politicians if things go really bad, but the same political philosophy prevails.
Too many people look for the government to bail them out and particularly so in catastrophes. Some of those areas that are developed in CA and some with very expensive homes and with very wealthy owners appear to be disasters waiting to happen. In a truly free market I do not see how the insurance would be affordable unless some very expensive mitigations occurred like constant brush removal and owner responsibitiy and provisions for fire prevention and fighting. Under those conditions the correct and involved people have a stake in the outcomes, whereas like I see way too often government officials appear to use catastrophic events to pat one another’s backs. You never hear what the corrective action might be when what is required is often immediately apparent.
If individuals want to play roulette with their property it should be made damn well clear to them that they are responsible either through very high insurance premiums, self insurance or bankruptcy.
Wow!
The fog of war, but I estimate 12,000 structures burned in LA. Still not certain, but probably 10 times that many structures were destroyed in North Carolina. The people of Appalachia aren’t getting media attention and FEMA has been slow to respond. I want FEMA to focus on North Carolina and let them woke Liberals in California wait their turn.
john Ferguson,
Among neighbors, I include the Palestinians, Iranians, and Lebanese, etc. There are plenty of people in the middle East still refusing to accept Israel.
SteveF,
But the governments?
John, Your comment:
“But the governments?”
The gang of muslim terrorists controlling Syria could hardly be called a government.
And Lebanon, who knows who’s in charge.
Archie Bunker on California:
https://x.com/SueJ2024/status/1878518810866557109
There is a great deal that could have been done short term to prevent or mitigate the catastrophe. Some of it probably would have needed a few weeks or months lead time, but some could have been done even after the dire warnings issued on Jan. 2.
The simplest would have been regular police sweeps through the areas where homeless people were known to start fires.
That could have been supplemented by helicopters and/or drones surveilling the brush lands looking for signs of fire before the fire could spread too far.
They could have had firefighting aircraft deployed, fully fueled and loaded with water. At least a couple could have had crews at the ready so that they could respond in minutes to a fire. And if that was not enough to snuff out the just-started fire, the rest could have quickly joined in.
They could have had the National Guard called up to secure problem areas and to be ready to help people safely evacuate.
Maybe have water tankers and pumps ready to help get water to the storage tanks to keep them from running out.
Probably other stuff as well.
L.A.’s political leadership failed on time sales ranging from days to decades.
Russell,n
I was thinking of Saudi, Qatar, the Arab Emirates, Jordan, but not at this time probably a majority of their citizens.
We’re headed for Cairo in the morning.
John,
Have a safe trip.
If you want me to let everyone know your progress, give me your flights I’ll tag them.
What could california or los angeles have done to prevent the pacific palisades fire.
A Supervisor from the Yorba Linda water district identified many things that could have been done but weren’t. Many very stupid environmental rules, including one by the state that prevented people and local governments from burning the brush. No auditions to the water system have been made since the 1970s even though california’spopulation has doubled. Backup generators using natural gas are strongly discouraged and on and on with about 10 ways the system has failed. Interestingly, the human consumption of water is something like 5 million acre feet while california in a typical year gets 200 million acre feed of rain. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=yH19B6dMXx0&list=PL0rsb5lAC10h_jHAnfScODAd0x_wsjfCD&index=1&pp=iAQB
john ferguson,
I hope you have a save trip to Egypt. At least the weather isn’t too hot this time of year. 😉
It is true there is a great deal of hostility toward Israel among Muslim populations, especially in the middle East; most of those same people think anyone trying to leave Islam should be put to death. I doubt that is a coincidence.
Israel is a modern wealthy democracy, and not because it is rich in natural resources. Most Eastern Muslims live in relatively poor autocracies, often in spite of huge natural resource wealth. Culture is destiny. Until and unless the culture in Middle Eastern Muslim countries changes, acceptance of Israel by individual Muslims will be limited, even if their governments do accept Israel to avoid military conflict.
Musk has a convoy of Tesla Cybertrucks rolling down PCH with Starlink to connect the firemen since the cell towers went offline.
Video:
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1878681818712695237?s=61&t=7w4bCW3a8ve2DqoeniQatQ
I’m not sure how they will recharge them, solar?
Maybe they can tap into the fire truck’s alternators?
Maybe bring their own diesel generators?
Edit: Lasers from the mothership!
One week to go. Can Biden get through it without screwing up anything else? My guess is “no”. Because he wants to screw things up.
Image of Musk at base camp handing out Starlink units:
“@elonmusk was at Basecamp earlier today handing out Starlinks and meeting everyone, as well as powering everything with Cybertruck.”
https://x.com/blkmdl3/status/1878662665746497596?s=61&t=7w4bCW3a8ve2DqoeniQatQ
Tesla answers my question:
“ Superchargers
All our Supercharger sites are back online, except Pasadena Supercharger, which was in the middle of the fire.”
https://x.com/tesla/status/1878587556536717376?s=61&t=7w4bCW3a8ve2DqoeniQatQ
Hi Russell,
When I’ve got threshold wits gathered let me send you the flight numbers of the Cairo>Aman and Aman>Heathrow flights. Can you record the flight paths? I ask because it looks easy to miss Israel flying Cairo >Aman, but maybe not Aman>Heathrow.
Otherwise it’s tampa>newark>vienna>cairo
thanks, john
John,I think I can record your flight paths. I will need the flight numbers.
I have been contemplating how I would have handled a catastrophe that wiped out my entire property. A catastrophe that wipes out an entire community would create problems many time worse than where only your house burned to the ground.
I have not had a mortgage for many years and have increased my property insurance deductibles to reduce my insurance premiums. I have never had a claim less than $10,000. In my location I would figure the chance of a catastrophic event wiping out the entire community to be very small. My strategy would be to use the insurance to rebuild on the same property and live off site during the rebuild or maybe even use it as an opportunity to travel.
What I have not researched is the situation facing some of the victims of the CA wildfires that destroyed their property and local community and who were paying on mortgages. Rebuilding in that case to a former state of living would require close to an entire rebuild of the community. I assume that would require a much longer time for moving back into to your property. If the property is mortgaged would those payments be covered by insurance for the duration of the rebuilding plus off site living expenses? Would insurance allow a lump sum payment to a property owner that would not be used to rebuild? Would the land property have anywhere near its former value? I would think a first instinct would be to find another location to live and resolve the former location to minimize the loses.
These considerations would, and especially so if not previously considered, create much anxiety in addition to sadness of the personal property lost that evoke powerful memories. I cannot comprehend what those people are enduring.
Ron DeSantis… “Florida must lead”….
Today, I called for a special session of the Florida legislature the week of January 27 to prepare Florida to lead on the Trump Administration’s deportation program. We will allocate resources and ensure state and local officials in Florida are supporting these efforts.
We have no time to waste. Florida must lead.
It definitely brings a huge amount of stress to peoples lives. It can trigger health problems. Fires are sudden and can be complete 100% losses of everything. Put the dogs in the car and bolt.
I assume the insurance pays off the cost of structure and sometime contents. There would be a lien on the house from the mortgage company which would likely be paid off directly by the insurance. The homeowner would then take whatever is left over, get another loan, and rebuild. Newsom said he is lifting environmental regulations for those in the rebuild areas so that should help a little bit.
I can tell you from the recent hurricane experience here that permitting and getting contractors / builders in line is a burden. Some people just live in an RV on their driveway and others rent a house or live with friends / relatives. Some people get the house livable ASAP and live in it during repairs. Some people just bail out completely and sell their house as is. It’s a windfall for contractors so one would not expect things to be very competitive.
Our relatively minor home insurance claim from the hurricane has just been finalized and that took about 3 months. They sent us an estimate that was 12 pages of (intentionally) indecipherable numbers. For the big dollar stuff it probably takes a lot longer as the insurance industry is notorious for being difficult with large claims.
“State Farm said last year it would not renew 69% of its property policies in the Pacific Palisades.”
I see a big bonus coming to at least one employee at State Farm.
The WSJ reported that some of those areas were not just well to do. Before the property values skyrocketed, homes could be bought for sum’s affordable by middle income earners. And with CA’s Prop 13(?), they weren’t driven out by property tax increases. Those people may be SOL. Even if they could afford to rebuild, I suspect that a new house would have unaffordable taxes.
Tom and DeWitt make a couple of interesting points here. If the insurance pays off the mortgage of a likely lower interest loan, the rebuilder must secure a higher interest loan to rebuild. The original loan would have been for land and added property, but the land remains after the property is destroyed. That might complicate negotiations all way around. The ratio of the built property to land values can vary greatly with area. It can make selling as a tear down a reasonable proposition.
DeWitt, did the WSJ article say that a rebuilt house does not obtain the tax considerations of Prop 13?
Dewitt, Kenneth, Tom,
Here’s the plan:
1 Sell your homesite in Pacific Palisades to a sleazy real estate developer
2 Buy a waterfront lot in Florida
3 Build a big house
4 Buy a big boat
5 Put the rest of the money in the bank
AFAICT the bank gets the insurance payout first. You do have to pay mortgage payments but apparently there are mandated pauses in FEMA disaster areas, a year announced by Fannie/Freddie/FHA for the LA fires.
Looks like most insurance policies cover alternate living expenses, rent on a temporary place, etc.
It gets vague after that related to rebuilding pertaining to whether you could maintain a previous low interest loan or not. Some people state the bank will pay the new contractors directly and others seems to state you can just take the resulting net payout and do it yourself.
Some inusrance policies have a “rebuild only” clause which forces you to rebuild after a total loss but that is not allowed in CA, a “non recourse” foreclose only state.
So if you are under water on your loan in CA then the bank takes the empty lot and you walk away. The lenders are motivated to not foreclose on burned out lots so they usually are flexible.
Very funny, Russell. I assume that would be CA home site without the house.
There was a funny line in today’s WSJ on the editorial page by Allysia Finley writing about the left turning CA into Paradise Lost were she says, ” you can lead CA progressives to water but you can’t make them think.”
She wrote that the fire department budget did not decrease because the fire fighter union received pay increases of around $20,000 per fire fighter. That was for members already making $ 200,000 a year plus $90,000 in benefits. Those fire fighters could retire to FL with Russell’s list sans the boat.
And best of all, Russell, if your financial exodus from California involves fraud, if you are convicted but already put the money in a house in Florida, they can’t take it away from you.
What? Not Golf of America? Trump must be slipping faster than we’d realized.
John,
“ And best of all, Russell, if your financial exodus from California involves fraud, if you are convicted but already put the money in a house in Florida, they can’t take it away from you.”
I did not know that! Maybe that is why Trump bought Mar a Lago.
john ferguson: “Golf of America? ”
Is that some new tournament that Trump is sponsoring?
We employed a gentleman from Califonia who lived in a $10 million house in Palm Beach, and that was 1992. He was involved in an SEC violation which could have had that sort of value. He had worked for Ashton-Tate (dbase2 IIRC) and his part of the haul had been the $10 million. He was sharp on Sun’s so he worked for us to have something to do until the thing blew over, And it did blow over. I think he wound up working for investors in Boston.
Alive and ge well in Cairo. They had a huge sliding gate and a whole lot of armed guards at the hotel, our van was sniffed for explosives, we were passed through metal detectors as was our luggage and I had to agree that my camera bag with the 3 sony’s did not have a video camera. I couldn’t understand what the problem with video cameras was when it was explained to me.
John,
I saw a video a while back on how the authorities in Egypt can be very sensitive to photography. Apparently the locals need money for “permits” and so forth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8LzuZrkEY18
I wonder how they deal with cameras that also do video comparable to many video cams?
I’m counting on technical ignorance to protect me from their discovery that these things do great video. I don’t do video but would point out that someone who is shooting video is prety obvious, extended shots or pans.
I did a moderate amount of research on shooting in Egypt and discovered that in supporting encouragment of tourism they have loosened the strictures of which there use to be many. Now, in most cases shooting for non-comercial purposes is ok almost everywhere but not anything which would show some aspect of Egypt in a bad light. I take this to be no really poor people and no messy scenes- and they do have some messes here.
The two big sony’s can look “professional” but in cases where this might be a problem, I use the A6000 with its pancake lens, or with my back to the wall, the iphone.
Yes, I know everyone thinks that great shots can be taken with a better Iphone, and I agree, but I sometimes like to control depth of field which as far as I can see cannot be done with an Iphone. This last thing is one of the reasons I went to cameras with settable f-stops from point and shoot along with being able to mount the old nikkor and leitz lenses.
John,
Take care. You are a lot braver than I.
From Dana Perino:
“Seniors are facing the biggest Medicare drug premium spike in history this month because Democrats took money from the program to fund EV tax credits – then tried to cover it up until after the election “
I am not sure this is related, but my Eliquis copay had been about $45 / month for years…. Yesterday it jumped to $140. [Same insurance plan.]
https://x.com/mattdizwhitlock/status/1878944871261610418
In 2019 California Eco-Nuts halted a Palisades fire prevention project because they tramped on a weed:
“California’s eco-bureaucrats halted a wildfire prevention project near the Pacific Palisades to protect an endangered shrub.
In 2019, the LA Department of Water and Power (LADWP) began replacing nearly 100-year-old power line poles cutting through Topanga State Park, when the project was halted within days by conservationists outraged that federally endangered Braunton’s milkvetch plants had been trampled during the process.”
https://nypost.com/2025/01/14/us-news/california-bureaucrats-halted-pacific-palisades-fire-safety-project-to-save-endangered-shrub/
Background blur is the thing that screams “professional” more than anything else and it focuses attention where it needs to be. Phone’s fake blur still looks bad. You can’t fix the physics of small optics, but you can try to simulate it. For some situations you definitely don’t want that blur though and phones have an advantage keeping everything in better focus.
I got the feeling that some “authorities” were just scammers with fake badges extorting the tourists.
It’s a bit strange that in this day and age that people think they can control what pictures get taken or that people with an agenda aren’t going to get their pictures one way or the other. I assume the citizens take plenty of unflattering pictures. Perhaps they realized the bad press from trying to control bad press wasn’t worth the futile effort.
Kenneth,
I didn’t read the whole article so I don’t know if it mentioned Prop 13. Quick research says that damage and destruction can get you relief from property taxes based on the assessment prior to the devastation. But in the event of destruction and rebuilding, particularly in the event of total devastation, I don’t see how the property won’t be reassessed at current value because it’s new construction without some action by the CA government. And there are a lot of people who don’t like Prop 13.
Location, location, location.
My small house on Cape Cod (about 1000 sq ft) is currently valued north of $800K because it sits on a small lot in a quite residential area… 90 meters from the beach on Nantucket Sound. As they say, God is not making more of this kind of lot. I put the value of the structure (circa 1920) at not more than $150K, so $650 for a very small lot, with considerable restrictions on what you might build.
The people in California who’s houses were destroyed still have tremendous value in the land their housed sat on. They should sell and move to beautiful Florida. 😉
Hi Tom Scharf,
The stadium south of Atlanta where the Harris ralley we attended was held had a big sign listing all of the things one couldn’t enter with, guns, knives, boomerangs, etc. Among them were professional cameras. There were all manner of secrete service types thereand when we went through the posessions inspection, one asked another if the professional camera restriction applied to the ralley. They decided it didn’t as long as they could try my Sony A7ii with the 24-240 zoom. it got passed around and the four of them really liked it. the 24-240 zoom is not the shaprest lens i won, but for shots which are shownon our 60 inch tv, plenty good enough.
A lens coould not be longer than 8 inches at Tropicana while it was still functioning. I have the F8x500 catadioptric which of course is 20 inch focal length. This time I got a woman who looked at it, undertood the focal length and that the physical length was about 8 inches, laughed and let me through.
When I lived in Chicago in the ’70s I ran into a guy with a Canon F1 kit all of which was painted babuy blue. guy worked for Tribune and had done it beause he pretty much used up the cameras anyway, mechanical camera do wear out, and the blue paint made them theftproof. he siad it was like Japan ony in the US you needed the paint. He could leave one on a park-bench for a couple of hours and it would sill be there when he got back. We agreed that camera thieves generally knew exaclty what they were doing and understood that none of the usual places would pawn a bright blue camera.
it’s 5:30am here, 9 hours ahead of original 13 colonies time. We’re prepping for our tour of Alexandria including a mosque I liked the looks of. it takes 3 hours to drive there. we will be going past some mechanically irrigated fiels which look like big circles on google earth. Have a look, there’s a lot of them.
Not braver Russell, maybe less thoughtful.
Enjoy Egypt!
many thanks for the continuing grace of our collagues here who don’t squawk about my many misspellings and some grammatical mistakes. Thank you.
it must be some form of digital dyslexia. I know I send the correct signals out, but they seem to get scrambled at the finger end of the bus.
thanks again for your patience. And yes, I could be more careful editing. thanks for not reminding me of that either. same problem, editing introduces different errors, not necessarily a positive activity in whole.
Here are satellite images of the crop circles between Cairo and Alexandria John mentioned:
https://x.com/rklier21/status/1879383287833227465
Here is an explanation from NASA’s Earth Observatory:
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/90937/crop-circles-in-sharq-el-owainat#:~:text=The%20crop%20circles%20are%20a,that%20pivot%20around%20the%20center.
John ferguson,
I tend to blame misspelling on spellcheck. For example, unless I’m paying close attention, it will change Scharf to Schaefer. And it keeps trying to make the W in my first name lower case. Also it capitalized the j in your first name.
DeWitt,
I only wish all my misspellings were due to spell check. Some are– especially on the phone!
john ferguson
January 14, 2025 at 9:55 pm
john, your misspellings create a youthful image. Interpretation of your writings has not been difficult and only cause an occasional second take.
My letter jumbles, I think, are the result of writing at the same pace as in my more youthful years with a brain that is showing its age. As long as I can compensate ( some might say fake it) I am happy.
,
Given how teed up the legacy media was for Hegseth’s hearing and the lack of tabloid screaming outrage after it was completed I guess it must have gone well.
I didn’t follow it but his TV experience probably helped him.
Fox News had quite a few clips from the Hegseth hearing. Based on those, he was awesome. And after the hearing, Joni Ernst endorsed him.
I have a feeling the Israel / Gaza ceasefire is going to stick. Hamas is pretty much exhausted, Hezbollah has bowed out and Iran’s axis of resistance is in tatters.
Hamas gambled and now has little to show for it except for a lot of dead leadership, Gaza is rubble, and 40K+ citizens dead.
Netanyahu amazingly looks like he may survive this politically, did not see that coming.
If history is any judge they will be back at it again once this memory fades in a decade or so. The Palestinians would be wise to get some less nihilistic leadership but I don’t see that coming either, but who knows?
As with most wars it is less a question of who won but who lost more. I think that answer is pretty clear at the moment.
I detect a slight stylistic change in official statements.
WSJ:
“Incoming Trump national security adviser Mike Waltz, previewing how the next administration sees the problem, said it was imperative to get a resolution of the Gaza conflict and encourage a “finally reformed” Palestinian Authority.
But he expressed skepticism about the ability to moderate extremist movements in the region. “Hopefully you can reform the next generation,” he said, “but sometimes you just have to put bombs on foreheads.”
Russell,
Out of high school in the early 70’s I worked for my uncle for a time helping to install dozens of 1/4 mile radius rotating sprinkler systems along the Colombia River in Washington and Oregon.
Turned desert into instant farm land with 1/2 mile diameter “crop circles “
When I went to join my uncle in Washington state, I imagined green forests. Imagine my shock on finding myself in desert as bleak as anything I experienced In Arizona.
The sprinkler equipment would be dropped off along the 1/4 mile length of assembly. Almost every control box I picked up along this install had a scorpion inside that had to be shook out first. What fun.
Ed Forbes,
Being from the midwest, imagine my confusion when people in WA state called the way we grow corn in Illinois “dry land farming” or something like that. The alternative to “dry land” was irrigated. So, dry land farming is done in locations that get enough rain to not irrigate! 🙂
I think that “dry land farming” refers to farming in areas that are too dry for traditional farming but that can be farmed without irrigation if you know how to do it. So not Illinois.
MikeM,
Perhaps the guys who decreed what I was describing was dry land farming didn’t know the difference. I just thought, “Who’d a thunk?”
I should admit that I can screw it up without any help from spellcheck.
They closed the tollroad to Alexandria this morning due to fog. It would have been nothing to those of us from Illinois, but there they fell on this cure after thousands of serious accidents by drivers that pressed on at their usual high speed withouf concern about collisions.
It was down about 3 hours, we were helped by the gendarmes to a 180 and visited a couple of astonishing pyrmaids south of Gizeh. more detail to follow maybe tomorrow. we did make it to alexandria eventually , saw the new library which is marvelous. and were detoured from a superhighway through a very corwded street market which was pretty challenging. they drive vry diffently here. Jan says similar to Bangkok, but much faster. Again more detail later.
Seems Trump’s threat of ‘there will be Hell to pay’ as motivated some movement WRT Hamas and Israel.
We will see what happens, but one thing is certain: Israel is not going to accept Hamas returning to power in Gaza.
I expect Netanyahu to survive. Seems the reports of his imminent (political) death were greatly exaggerated. Of course, those reports were mainly from the usual ‘progressive’ suspects, who all hate anybody who is even slightly to the right of Che’. Netanyahu is to those folks probably more evil than Trump and his 70 million voters!
So did anyone listen to Biden’s farewell address? I didn’t. He seems irrelevant except for the booby traps his staff are laying for Trump. We can’t be rid of him soon enough.
Nope. I watched some episodes of “Killing Eve” on Netflix.
He still seems to be in Angry Joe mode warning us of “dangers to democracy” and oligarchies. I don’t think many people are having buyer’s remorse so far.
Tom Scharf, Not having bought, I think i lack access to buyers’ remorse, but in some respects I’m optimistic. Maybe I’m starting to see some of things that you guys knew all along.
Mike M. I coldn’t agree with you more. Biden cannot disappear nearly soone enough for me.
He was jerk when I had to deal with his office in the ealry ’90s and he’s never improved.
Blue Origin’s (Bezos) large New Glenn rocket makes it to orbit on its first try which is an accomplishment, They also are trying to land and reuse the first stage like SpaceX but they lost the first stage at some point during the attempt. SpaceX took a few tries to get that landing part perfected.
Looks like SpaceX will have some competition within a year or so as they qualify the rocket.
New Glenn is larger than the Falcon 9, smaller than the Falcon Heavy, and much smaller than Starship.
Up next, Starship test flight #7 Thursday at 5 pm EST.
Tom Scharf,
It is interesting that the Starship is supposed to put 100+ metric tons into low Earth orbit. Aside from putting a bunch of 2-ton Starlink satellites in orbit at the same time and pursuing Musk’s more grandiose plans for Mars travel, I wonder how much demand there will be for placing gigantic payloads into orbit.
WRT Blue Origin: Is there some unmet demand for a payload size between the Falcon 9 and the Falcon Heavy? If so, I haven’t heard of it. Of course, competition may lower the prices for launching the SpaceX rockets, cutting into SpaceX’s profit margins, which are likely pretty high right now. But Bezos seems to be arriving at the party late.
The only demand for a significant number of Starship launches is the moon and Mars. Even so, there isn’t a huge need in that class.
The big payoff for satellite launches is geosynchronous equatorial orbit for communication satellites. And the bigger the Geo-comm satellite the better. Would Starship really be necessary? Probably not – but New Glenn may be the right size for the time being. For comparison: Falcon 9 can put 8,300 kg to GTO, New Glenn can put 13,000 kg, Falcon Heavy can put 26,700 kg, and Starship can place 91,000 kg. Data from wikipedia and launch mfg pages. Obviously the New Glenn and Starship are tentative given they aren’t yet operational.
It will be interesting to see how the landscape changes once NG becomes operational. It also will be interesting to see how NASA adjusts to having a Commercial Crew guy leading it under the next administration.
I would have agreed with DeanP that the likely market for Starship launches would be bigger payloads to GSO. But that is not mentioned among the possible application here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship#Potential_missions
The wildest proposed application is this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rocket_Cargo
100 tons delivered point-to-point on the Earth’s surface in under an hour. Hard to believe that makes economic sense.
Ultimately what really matters is cost per kg to orbit. Starship will blow the doors off that equation if it succeeds. Large payload, fully reusable, quick turnaround. Before reusability the cost of the fuel was only 10% of the cost of a rocket launch.
SpaceX routinely launches “rideshare” missions on the Falcon 9 where multiple different satellites are launched at the same time. They just need to be in similar orbits. This has been a big competitive problem for the small to medium launch business.
New Glenn’s main advantage is a gigantic payload bay (in area), and also being somebody, anybody, besides SpaceX. Their second stage uses liquid hydrogen which is bit more efficient. The government wants to supports two independent launch businesses for national security purposes.
The bulk of the launch business upcoming seems to be launching large satellite constellations which fits Starship. Starlink, Starshield (military), Amazon’s Kiper, the EU wants one but on their rockets and China is deploying one. Good luck earth based astronomers with all the optical clutter …
The thinking my be that large single military payloads are too vulnerable but it takes 10+ years to go from design to orbit.
Some telecom satellites are quite happy to not have to spend huge amounts of money designing their satellites for low mass and smallish size. What low cost per kg to orbit does is remove some of the massive NRE it takes to design these things.
It’s no secret that Musk has a bigtime Mars fetish. It’s been a dream of his forever and it drives a lot of what he is doing. AFAICT he is a true believer in putting a colony on Mars.
Musk 13 years ago on 60 min, he is obviously emotionally committed. He breaks up when talking about former Apollo astronauts dissing SpaceX.
https://youtu.be/23GzpbNUyI4?t=652
IMO, asking about the market for reduced cost for getting mass into space is similar to asking what the market might be for computers back before microcomputers took off. The Internet tells me Watson reportedly claimed ‘I think there is a world market for about five computers.’
Having the ability to put things into space cheaply may make market opportunities possible that have been cost prohibitive until now. Or not.
Tom Scharf wrote: ” What low cost per kg to orbit does is remove some of the massive NRE it takes to design these things.”
Good point. The cost of building the big telecom satellite is much greater than the launch cost. So simply having access to a greater payload capacity might be more important than cost per kg.
‘I think there is a world market for about five computers.’
I think Watson was told that but didn’t believe it. So he decided to get IBM into the computer business.
Mike M.
January 15, 2025 at 1:34 pm
I think that “dry land farming” refers to farming in areas that are too dry for traditional farming but that can be farmed without irrigation if you know how to do it. So not Illinois.
That is the correct defintion. My grandparents both at age 18 were located from IL to eastern MT by their parents to homestead. It was once 160 acres for a homestead until the government and farmers realized that dry farming was not sustainable at that acreage and thus it was increased to 320 acres – and that is what my grandparents farmed on my grandfather’s homestead. I think my grandmother’s homestead went to her family. They came back to IL because MT winters would not allow my father to get to school. They retained the homestead until they died after which my father and aunt sold it.
There is some irrigation in that local area using water from the Yellowstone river.
I remember reading somewhere, somewhen that you can’t irrigate forever because of salt buildup in the soil. It takes ever increasing amounts of water to keep the salt down low enough to grow stuff. Aquifers get drained faster than they get restored and, if using river water, the people downstream are not too thrilled with the high salt content and low flow.
Also, nowadays if you’re farming less than 4,000 acres in places like MT, you’re considered a hobby farmer.
Has Gov. DeWine announced who will be replacing Vance in the Senate? I think not. So what is taking so long? The election was over ten weeks ago.
Excitement guaranteed. A second successful crazy booster catch and Starship explodes spectacularly as it approaches orbit. That second stage needs a lot of work.
CNN Reporter: “We gonna nail this Zachary Young mf**ker.”
CNN Producer: “A CNN producer admitted that he thinks Zachary Young has a “punchable face” in a deposition played in court on Tuesday.”
These are things journalists actually wrote down. This one is likely going to cost CNN a lot of money. CNN is near the end of a defamation trial over a story it did in 2022. The trial is in Florida. The short story is they willfully misrepresented what this guy was doing, trying to evacuate Afghan civilians in 2022. After the story he lost all his business opportunities. It’s plausible enough.
I don’t think the plaintiffs need to reach the malice level here but I think they have anyway. CNN should have settled. We shall see where it ends up.
https://www.courthousenews.com/cnns-fact-checking-criticized-in-defamation-case/
Bad things can happen when you are moving fast and breaking things. SpaceX “lost”, AKA exploded ,the upper stage of their launch today.
Still, the second catch of a 300+ ft long rocket coming back to Earth, retro-replusive, was impressive. Few (actually, nobody) could pull that off.
Tom Scharf,
“This one is likely going to cost CNN a lot of money. ”
The insane thing is that they didn’t settle this case (with generous compensation for the plaintiff) long ago. It is almost like CNN is run by lunatics…. OK, maybe CNN is just run by progressives; which seems almost the same thing as lunatics. This is going to leave a nasty mark on CNN’s finances.
I keep wondering: what the Hell is wrong with these people? None of it makes any sense to me. It is almost like they can’t rationally evaluate what is happening. They are doomed.
I think Young sued for $1B, ha ha. Journalists had a bird when ABC settled with Trump recently and that may have been a factor in going to trial. They might learn why settling is sometime wise.
It’s a bit odd that journalists who feast on inappropriate comments written down by others did this. A bit arrogant. The trial is in the NW Florida panhandle. Trump won Bay county by 48%. Good luck CNN.
Tom Scharf,
Young is going to be a very rich man for the rest of his life, courtesy of a giant news organization that can’t deal with reality. As I said above: I think they are doomed. To the extent he is still cognizant: Ted Turner will be dismayed.
Mike,
So far DeWine hasn’t said anything on who is replacing Vance.
The latest ‘front runner’ is John Husted – Ohio’s Lieutenant Governor
One other impact of the lower cost to orbit is that if the reliability of the launch system can be improved significantly (and right now it is pretty reliable), then the insurance rates on Geocomm satellite launches can be reduced significantly. These are multi billion dollar investments, and have huge insurance premiums on them.
So reliable launches paired with a repair/replace capability on orbit could have a major effect on the economic landscape.
And Mark Bofill is right – we really don’t know what the future satellite market will look like. The good thing is that the market will figure it out.
The incompetence of CNN’s attorney in the Young defamation case is almost beyond belief. CNN lawyer falsely accused Young of being a liar and was forced to apologize by the judge. Here is Turley summary:
“Plaintiff’s entire case, sitting right there, is that after the publications, he couldn’t get any work…Mr. Young knew, when he filed this lawsuit that he had entered into a new consulting agreement with a government contractor one month after CNN’s publication. This entire lawsuit was a fraud on this court. It was a fraud on CNN. .. But when his came up in discovery, CNN’s counsel asked Mr. Young about the Helios connection, and he completely lied in his deposition. Over and over again, he made up some incredible ruse that Helios just had his security clearance because it was a company that held security clearances. It makes no sense. He knew at that time that he had a consulting agreement with Helios Global and he didn’t disclose it. It was an outright lie.”
However, it turned out that the document merely was Young’s application to maintain his SECURITY CLEARANCE.” https://jonathanturley.org/2025/01/16/your-credibility-with-me-is-about-none-cnn-trial-goes-from-bad-to-worse/ Appears to be as stupid as Rod Rosenstein.
DeanP wrote: “So far DeWine hasn’t said anything on who is replacing Vance. ”
That is what I thought, also confirmed by the fact that Trump is now pushing Ramaswamy for the position. But it seems to me that DeWine is committing political malpractice by acting as if Vance’s resignation was a surprise. I do not understand why people are not screaming at him for not already having made a decision.
Mike M: I don’t want understand why people are not yelling at governor dewine for political malpractice.
There is a complicated political dynamic going on here in the sense that Trump has not been very supportive of Dewine and Dewine feels no obligation to Trump. Personally, I think that Husted would be the best choice because Vivek, although I support many of his policies, can be tone deaf and has a tendency to stick his foot in his mouth and needs more political seasoning. If Husted is appointed there is virtually no chance that he will lose the next election, but Vivek with his insensitivity to the voters as a whole (consider his statement about screech being a decent role model and his previous statements that people under age 25 should not be allowed to vote) could possibly stick his foot in his mouth and lose the next election.
DeSantis selected the FL Attorney General, an elected office, Ashley Moody to replace Senator Rubio. She has been in and out the news for prosecuting things like vaccine mandates, masking requirements, immigration, and so forth. Basically faithfully executing DeSantis’s agenda.
She backed much of Trump’s agenda good and bad.
And in another good sign … nobody cares that she is a woman.
I may be wrong but I think we are exiting the era of gotcha statements and behaviors being disqualifying for political office.
Perhaps this is due to social media and having everyone’s life recorded and documented. Tolerance for occasional deviant behavior is much higher. The coin of the influencer realm is attention and you get attention by making bold statements and hot takes. Trump took this model to politics and shattered the staid robot politician model. Some of the newer House members are … well … eccentric.
The only way to not have any skeletons in your closet now is by taking no risks (or by always being right about everything ha ha). This will no longer get you elected going forward.
I just noticed something a little odd. Here are the 16 Vice Presidents since WW2 sorted into two groups. Most recent first.
Those who were previously senators:
Harris
Biden
Gore
Quayle
Mondale
Humphrey
Johnson
Barkley
Truman
All but one have something else in common.
Those who were NOT previously senators:
Pence
Cheney
Bush
Rockefeller
Ford
Agnew
Nixon
They all have something else in common.
Vance, like Quayle, will break the pattern.
Addition: I meant something else besides being VPs and either former senators or not. But I need to add sex to the list.
Tom Scharf, wouldn’t you agree that a skeletonin the closet isn’t a problem if it doesn’t bother anopugh people? Maybe a skeleton in one persons closet is a doilie in someone else’s.
Mike M.,
hmm…trying to figure out what the common links are…
But, I believe Nixon was a Senator prior to becoming VP.
I guess some skeletons are bigger than others. There is certainly some level of proven impropriety that will get you eliminated but accusations don’t move the needle. Kavanaugh was gang rapist after all.
Trump’s closet overfloweth, but he leaves the door open. Trump went through a circus show trial on Jan 6th and a NYC criminal trial and that didn’t move the needle. I’d just say the thresholds are different now.
What matters? I guess Lynn Cheney knows that tribal loyalty matters. Having the right enemies matter. In my view DC worked better when it was boring. Even talking to the other side is now tantamount to being a traitor, this must happen in secret.
I listened to a couple podcasts from both sides on Hegseth’s hearing and they both agree on one thing, they could care less what his defense policies are. Tattoos are important though.
This is just bizarre…
In a post on X, Biden declared that the ERA is “the law of the land”.
Despite the fact that it isn’t.
HaroldW: “I believe Nixon was a Senator prior to becoming VP.”
You are correct. I knew he was in the House, but I had forgotten that he was also a Senator.
So Vance will be the 3rd post-WW2 Republican to be both Senator and VP. Still curious that all 8 Dem VP’s had been Senators and all 6 non-Senators who became VP were Republicans.
Unless I screwed up something else. 🙂
Tom Scharf wrote: “Even talking to the other side is now tantamount to being a traitor”.
Well, they do it all the time on Bret Baier’s Common Ground segment on Special Report. But it was disturbing to see the Dems getting mad at Fetterman for going to Mar-a-Lago.
Mike M.
Oh – Dem vs. Rep. I was over-thinking it.
So Zachary Young gets $5M from CNN, plus some unspecified amount in punitive damages. The two sides made a deal on the latter before the jury got to it.
I am guessing that the punitive damages were a LOT more than the actual damages because CNN would have been scared of getting really nailed and Young would have had no reason to settle for a mere $10M or so.
HaroldW,
I guess Trump can just enact Constitutional Amendments too, that should be very interesting, ha ha.
Mike M,
CNN must has put up some SERIOUS money here because I have a feeling the Bay County jury was just contemplating whether they had enough room to write all the zeros on the jury form.
I don’t know why Young would have settled at all, this looked like a jackpot. I’m guessing that he wanted the money now instead of waiting for years while the appeals ran their process.
$100M now sounds about right to settle is my WAG.
Re: CNN — The Supreme Court in “State Farm Mutual Insurance Co. v. Campbell, 538 U.S. 408 (2003)” held that generally punitive damages should not exceed the compensatory damages by more than single digits. So CNN was looking at an additional $45 million in damages. Almost certainly the settlement was close to that amount because CNN’s behavior was truly despicable and arrogant — exactly what juries despise.
This reminds me of Mann v. Steyn and I wonder why since Mann was only awarded small actual damages (I believe $1,000) that this issue hasn’t come up and been directly confronted from what I have seen. Almost certainly Steyn has lawyers telling him this is one very serious option to reduce the damages.
Tom Scharf,
Donno. They could have settled for $10 to $30 million, but considering that the attorneys will likely take 1/3 and the government 1/3, $30 million would only leave him with $10 million after tax and fees. (It is crazy, but the full settlement is taxable to the plaintiff, even if a big chunk goes to the attorneys!) Of course, index fund income on that amount would still be considerable.
But I would bet on something north of $30 million.
Will there be consequences for those who brought this on CNN? Not an ice cube’s chance.
NYT: “The location of the trial, in a Florida county where Mr. Trump won roughly three-quarters of the vote in 2024, was considered a disadvantage for CNN, whose coverage has been vilified by Mr. Trump and his supporters. Mr. Trump’s lawsuit against ABC, which was ultimately settled, was also filed in Florida.”
AP: “At a trial located in a conservative part of the country, Young’s lawyers urged jurors to send a message to the media.”
LA Times: “The verdict could also encourage others who feel aggrieved by news organizations to move forward with defamation cases, especially if they can be heard in venues with potentially sympathetic juries. Bay County, Fla., where Young filed his case, voted overwhelmingly for Trump in the 2024 election.”
Oh … so now the venue matters. I’m sure Fact Checkers agree.
In a possibly related story today …
CBS Owner Discusses Settling Trump Suit, With Merger Review on Tap
“Trump’s lawsuit against CBS, which seeks $10 billion in damages, alleges that the network committed election interference by editing portions of an interview with Harris, favoring her campaign for president.”
https://www.wsj.com/business/media/cbs-owner-discusses-settling-trump-suit-with-merger-review-on-tap-a5916925?st=8gsRLK&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
This trial is in Amarillo, Texas. Shockingly Trump won that county by 60%.
For the record this is all around bad but with the required “but they started it and have it coming” qualifier. It’s mud wrestling.
Interesting statistic: There are some 42,000 ‘wet markets’ operating in China in 2019. Oddly enough, the Covid-19 was claimed to have started via and animal in a Wuhan wet market, the city which just happens, by coincidence, to have the only lab doing genetic modification closely related bat coronaviruses.
But seriously, the coincidence is so unlikely that Occam would roll his eyes….. as do I. I had no idea how many cities and Towns in China have these markets.
Biden actually thinks he just changed the Constitution. Not some silly case of misspeaking. Not some prank by an aide.
Talk about defending norms.
Is it too late to impeach Biden?
“Experts” don’t believe Biden. Apparently this theory rests entirely on a premise that the ERA law passed by Congress having a 10 year sunset provision for states to ratify it is unconstitutional. Good luck.
Tom,
In addition to the claim that the time limit expressed by Congress is not constitutional, one must also accept the claim that states can not rescind their ratification, as five (I think) have.
Google will show you sites stating that “legal scholars” agree with both claims, concluding that the ERA should now be accepted as part of the Constitution. Despite (apparently) court cases denying that position.
Biden’s dementia inspired ERA nonsense is nothing but a distraction. There have been dozens of Federal court rulings that the term for ratification (set by Congress when they passed the proposed amendment) has long since expired and there is no ERA in the constitution. At least 25 states have adopted their own versions of the ERA for their state constitutions, and every state continues to have that option. As always, ‘progressives’ insist that they have the right to tell everyone else what to do. It could not be more tiresome.
FYI – DeWine appointed Husted.
Michael Shellenberger reports on what LA firefighters say about the ways in which political decisions made it harder to fight the LA fires:
https://x.com/shellenberger/status/1880013540263669983
Also, massive shortages in personnel and equipment. Huge numbers of fires started by homeless people. And DEI:
SteveF
The distraction will not last very long. People have mostly been paying no attention at all to Biden since election day. Admittedly, some are paying attention to executive orders, pardons and acts that have some effect, but purely political speeches? Nah.
I wonder if Biden really even knows people are paying little attention to him. I know he is annoyed at “not getting credit” for things. We know he thinks tons of things he has been criticized for were “good” things. But I think most people read whatever excerpts are written by others and then shaking their heads. Everyone knows he’s out of touch. Even those who couldn’t bring themselves to recognize it before the Trump-Biden debate do admit it now. (Even if they won’t say so publicly).
WSJ:
“12% said they thought Biden was fit to serve a second term” – In breaking news the NYT wrote a 2000 word article yesterday stating that those around Biden knew he was in decline and effectively covered it up. Queue up the Pulitzer!
“36% approve of Biden’s job performance, with 62% disapproving—a record-low rating in Journal polls during his presidency”
“36% to 60%, voters view the Democratic Party more unfavorably than favorably. That marks the party’s weakest rating in Journal polls dating to 1990.”
I guess a lot of people found a way to not like “saving democracy”. As Jonathon Capehart would say, I’m very, very, disappointed in America.
However once the Republicans start governing then I expect these numbers to start to reverse. A sure thing, no. A probability, yes.
There was a big fire at a 3GWh Li-ion battery storage facility in Northern California. Solar power was used to charge the batteries for use at night. No casualties reported, but a number of people were evacuated.
How much longer does President Biden have to give any get out of jail free pardons, if he is going to do so, particularly for his brother and Schiff?
Less than 24 hours/
Can they announce them at the last minute?
angech
I think yes– pretty much. He can announced them until the last second he is president.
To be safe, and avoid any argument, he should do it by the end of the 19th. Trump is sworn in at noon on the 20th which is when his term begins. The president is required to take the oath before assuming duties. But I’m pretty sure Biden’s is over regardless.
(What happens if something screws up the swearing in? Dunno. Potential constitutional crisis?)
But if I were getting pardoned I would hope to not have any Biden would do it by midnight the 19th and not dally to do it the morning of the 20th. But technically, I think he could sign the paper at 11:59 am and the pardon would be valid.
Egypt,
Viking tours. each bus has an Uzi armed guard. apparently threat is kidnapping. the Uzis are hung under the arm and don’t extend past the bottom of the sports jackets these guys ware. One of our guys had a model that some of the other envied so it came out and so were the others and they were compared. I wasn’t privey to the conversation.
no effective restrivctions on photography except in two museums where there was no photography for a special exhibit in each one, otherwise no restrictions. no photographing military sites nor anything that might reflect badly on Egypt.
we did hot-air balloon ride in luxor. no cameras allowed because military didn’t want any aerial shots of anything they had around here – didn’t see anything. cell phones were ok though.
We saw aspects of pyramids which I had never seen in books.
Once more, examples of limited value of photos taken by people who don’t really understand what they are looking at. I’ll get into this in more detail when we get home.
we did a tourby local trip Cairo to Alecandria. 10 hours with two egyptians, very interesting for reasons which had little to do wit the trip. It looks really tough to face the real possility that your kids despite making it through University may not have prosperous lives . I do see that with some of our friends in the US whose kids seem mostly to have foundered – carreer wait people and the like.
but it’s much worse there. even with a uni degree it sounds like success in terms we understand might be 1 chance in 50.
Thanks Lucia.
Still expect some action at last minute.
JF
Good to see you are enjoying your holiday .
Braver than me!
Enjoy
DeWitt,
1KW of lithium battery capacity costs in the range of $150 (or more!), so 3 GW of capacity would cost $450 million, just for the batteries….. add mounting, charge control, and DC/AC converters, and the cost could double. A big fire is going to be expensive.
SteveF, DeWitt:
The facility on fire is not 3GWh (or 3GW), it’s 300 MW / 1.2 GWh, per this. Still huge, of course.
Apparently the fire continues, though fortunately the local air quality seems to not be as bad as feared, as the local evacuation order has been lifted.
There have been a number of slip ups with the Presidential Oath of Office. They have generally been ignored.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oath_of_office_of_the_president_of_the_United_States#Mishaps
john ferguson,
We have done a number of Viking tours but I definitely haven’t seen any Uzi’s! I noted they were discounting the Egypt tours pretty aggressively and I figured it was due to security issues given the turmoil in the Middle East. I think it’s a good idea for them to have armed security even if it is just for show, the one off 1997 incident still resonates.
But have a good time, ha ha. Egypt is unique for sure, I can’t imagine what it was like watching those pyramids getting built.
Straight lithium doesn’t like water very much so battling those fires has to be done with some expertise.
Li-Ion gel / polymer can be quite reactive. The problem with dense cell based battery packs is once one cell goes into thermal run away there is a chain reaction to other cells.
Newer tech like Lithium Iron Phosphate is much more tolerant of pounding nails into battery packs, etc. It’s not quite as energy dense though.
I think the EV industry has done pretty good with safety, much less explosive fires from car wrecks then I would anticipate.
MikeM,
Not happening at all would be a bigger thing. If something big happened to prevent the swear in, I suspect they would just schedule a semi-private swear in. Nothing says the swear in needs an audience of thousands, cameras, a speech yada, yada. But the constitution does say it needs to happen.
SteveF,
As an electrochemist friend of mine says, batteries are the triumph of kinetics over thermodynamics. Lithium metal can theoretically reduce almost anything and cobalt(IV) oxide can oxidize almost anything. It really shouldn’t be possible to make a battery with a cell voltage of 3V. Wonders never cease.
3GWh was what it said in the very short article in the weekend WSJ. I didn’t bother to check. They also said that capacity had recently been expanded.
HaroldW,
You didn’t read all of your link. “Expansion to 750MW, 3,000MWh was started in 2023.” Apparently that expansion had just been completed. Further expansion was planned but not started.
lucia,
When the President dies, the subsequent swearing in can be quite informal. I think that any federal judge can do it.
China is chunking out batteries at an astronomical rate. Battery prices have dropped 9x over the past decade. I have no idea where the bottom of this market is.
Maybe its time to revisit large scale DC power residentially, I must have a hundred disparate AC/DC converters in my house.
The swearing in after JFK’s assassination was pretty informal.
The swearing in does not even have to be by a federal judge. There were no federal judges when Washington first took the oath. Arthur was sworn in by a state judge and Coolidge by a justice of the peace. But both later retook the oath with a federal judge so that there would be an official federal record of the event. Just to be sure.
Tom Scharf, MikeM,
That the swearing in can be informal is as I expected. The constitution doesn’t specify all the rigamorole. It only says he has
When terms start and end Noon on the 20th : (20th amendement)
https://constitution.congress.gov/constitution/amendment-20/
Oath
Sounds like technically the elected president could just put his hand in the air and swear this in private. Of course, people want witnesses- just like for marriages!
A totally private swearing in could be useful if Mars Attacks– like in Mars Attacks.
The Constitution also says nothing about what happens when a VP suceeds to the office of president. Tyler insisted on taking the Oath to make the point that he was now President and not Vice President acting as president. That was part of his argument that he should serve out Harrison’s term and not just serve until a special election could be held.
I think that when the VP becomes Acting President under the 25th Amendment (as has happened many times), she does not take the Presidential Oath of Office.
DeWitt,
I read the paragraph about expansion to 750 MW/ 3000 MWh as referring to Phase 3, whereas the fire is in the Phase 1 section. Further, the article reads, “At 3 pm on Thursday January 16, 2025 an actual fire broke out in the 300 MW Phase 1 building.”, which is pretty specific.
Accurate? Well, it’s Wikipedia, so no guarantees. News articles I’ve read are not specific at all.
An estimated cost for storing solar power: Say $1 billion up front, for 3 GWh capacity, with a practical lifetime of 15 years tops before everything has to be replaced. Under the most optimistic conditions, you might get to use 85% of the total capacity each day for 325 days a year…. sunny desert Southwest. So 0.85*3 = 2.55 GWh per day, and 2.55*325*15 = 12,188 GWh total stored, or $0.082 per KWh until the system has to be replaced. Time cost of money at 5% per year adds another $0.06 per KWh, So breakeven looks like somewhere over $0.14 per KWh, any profit margin will only increase that rate. Add to the cost the investment in a solar farm to produce 3+ GWh per day, and the number gets crazy.
There has been a lot of reduction in battery cost, but unless people are willing to pay ~$0.35 – $0.40 per KWh, such a system is a loser. Only government subsidies (that is, making people pay more for electricity through their taxes) will induce investment in this business.
HaroldW,
The fire may have started in the phase I area. That doesn’t mean that construction of phase 3, which your link reported being started in 2023, hadn’t been completed. I’ll go with the WSJ, which reported that total capacity was 3,000MWh.
Biden has issued a “preemptive pardon” for Fauci among others. However, the news articles that I’ve seen don’t give the text. Given how wide-ranging Hunter’s pardon was, I’m curious to read what it says. Can anyone find it?
HaroldW
It will be interesting to read the language of that pre-emptive pardon!
Biden’s statement doesn’t provide the text, or a link to same.
Honestly, these pardons are a blessing. Many probably save Congress and others from wasting time on investigations that are too oriented toward individuals. Those aren’t going to do the nation any good.
If you do support Trumps and GOP programs you should prefer them to get down to he business of implementing those and not be distracted by witch hunts.
lucia,
Preemptive pardons are a dangerous precedent that undermine the rule of law.
If Republican Congress Critters are stupid enough to want to undertake witch hunts, the pardons won’t stop it. In fact, it would mean that pardoned persons might be unable to plead the Fifth.
If there is a silver lining in the pardons, it is that by accepting them, people like Milley and Fauci effectively admit guilt.
do we know ifany have been accepted?
john ferguson,
Do we know if accepting them is legally required? (Having never received a Presidential pardon, I’m afraid my pardon-o-logy is scant.)
The White House statement (link earlier) says, “The issuance of these pardons should not be mistaken as an acknowledgment that any individual engaged in any wrongdoing, nor should acceptance be misconstrued as an admission of guilt for any offense.”
As for accepting, this article has statements from Fauci & Milley:
HaroldW,
That’s to be expected. If offered, I would accept a baseless pardon too. And I would say the same thing. I would also accept a pardon for something I did. And I would say the same thing.
How petty to do this on the last day. The danger to democracy crowd strikes again. Look what the evil doers made Biden do to protect the forces of truth and justice.
I gave Biden a “meh” rating previously but the last few months have turned that into “barf”. He has really tarnished his legacy in the last year. Don’t let the door hit you on the way out Angry Joe.
It clears the deck for Jan 6th riot pardons.
“The issuance of these pardons should not be mistaken as an acknowledgment that any individual engaged in any wrongdoing”
Hilarious, both sides are clown shows. No one is above the law, except Hunter, Fauci, Milley ….
Most of the investigative witch hunting already happened when the Republican gained control of the house a while back. Gaining control of the DOJ means prosecutions could occur but I didn’t really see that happening per the “lock her up” precedent.
I see this as the left again falling into traps with huge “Don’t Fall Into This Obvious Trap” signs all about. The left went crazy with witch hunts … and … what … happened? They lost the Presidency and the Senate to their very targets, Donald Trump. The voters are the jury.
The DC bubble is impervious.
“The issuance of these pardons should not be mistaken as an acknowledgment that any individual engaged in any wrongdoing”
Yep. And we now have 28 amendments to the Constitution. I give as much credence to one as to the other.
I don’t think a pardon has to be formally accepted, but it can be rejected. My guess is that the rule “silence implies consent” applies.
By the way, the pardons might be invalid. At least some experts say that a pardon has to specify the crime being pardoned. So conceivably a federal prosecutor could bring FARA charges against Hunter and argue that the pardon does not cover that. No telling how the courts might rule.
Just speculating: What if it were to be discovered that Gen. Milley was actually in the pay of the Chinese? If so, I’d like to see treason charges filed in spite of the pardon and let the courts sort it out.
Biden’s pardons are very specifically placing Hunter, Fauci, Milley, Cheney etc. above the law. That is unacceptable.
Tom Scharf,
As Br’er Rabbit once said: Please don’t throw me in that briar patch.
“Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) arrived at the inauguration Monday in his classic fit — a hoodie and shorts — despite the freezing temperatures in the nation’s capital.“
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2025/01/20/sen-john-fetterman-arrives-at-inauguration-in-hoodie-and-shorts/
.
My hat goes off to Sen Fetterman. He has developed “look” and policy positions that stands out from the crowd and, IMO, will give a lock on his career for years to come.
.
The term “empty suit “ just does not apply to John 🙂
Yipee!
Trump was brief. I didn’t know he could do that.
“Minutes before his term ended, former President Biden announced pre-emptive pardons for his siblings and their spouses.”
This just looks bad.
Tom,
Minutes? Good thing he didn’t trip and fall… or were they already signed and he just announced?
I didn’t see the inaguration. My older sister hosted a party for my Mom. My nephew flew in from New Jersey.
Two comments on the part of the ceremony I watched. Trump’s speech was very good. Carrie Underwood is a trouper.
In Dec. 2020, Jake Tapper asked President elect Biden about the possibility that Trump might issue preemptive pardons.
Biden: “It concerns me, the type of precedent it sets. How the rest of the world looks at us as a nation of laws. You won’t see me doing that.”
He was right as to the first two sentences.
Does anyone here have any yogurt making experience? I was bored last week and tried to make “pro-biotic yogurt” (from stuff in pills). I thought… hmm…. “what if..?” Did a couple of tests. And now I have weird question. If necessary, I want to describe the “weird things” in a post. But if no one has information on yogurt making or general “what weird thing happen with milk” knowledge, I don’t want to.
(Why bored? Jim had light Covid; I did not. I stayed home… I am now also trying to ferment stuff. )
So which NBA team does Barron Trump play for?
Lucia,
“Does anyone here have any yogurt making experience?’
Sure.
I used to make a gallon at a time, using whole milk as a starting point. You can use low f at or skim, the less butterfat the less rich it tastes. I added either the commercial culture (or a little of whatever was left over from the last effort), mixed completely into the fresh milk, kept the temperature at ~20C-25C, and 24 hours (or less) later, yogurt. Never thought much about the details.
Lucia,
BTW,
Plain yogurt is pretty hardcore. I always added some kind of preserves (strawberry, peach, orange, grape, etc.) to make the yogurt more palatable. How much you add of these (naughty) things determines how low in calories the yogurt is… saintly to devilish.
My youngest daughter adds zero-calorie sweetener to make this sort of food more palatable.
lucia,
Yogurt is pretty easy. Any plain yogurt that has active cultures can be used for a starter. Mix well. We had a tray that held six small containers and kept them warm while they fermented. I don’t know what temperature other than it was above room temperature and just a little warm. Pickles and sauerkraut are more complex. Beer is hard, or so I’m told. Holding partially risen bread dough in the refrigerator for 12 to 48+ hours is good for French bread and pizza dough. Yeast growth is more temperature sensitive than the enzyme reactions that convert starches to sugar.
DeWitt,
The question isn’t going to be about making ordinary plain yogurt!! I can make it starting from Fage– tastes great!
There is “a thing” going around where people try to make it skipping the normal starters and try to start from over the counter probiotics sold as supplements. This sent me down a rabbit hole a bit.
And my *actual* question is HOW in the world I can manage to get boiled milk ONLY to gell if I incubate about 14 hours at 37 C. (I know in theory– stuff in the air settled. But could that much settle while the stuff in the measuring cup is cooling?) My questions are about getting stuff that kinda-sorta looks like yogurt that should fail!
On recipes– when I make “normal” yogurt, I drain into make very thick greek yogurt then add garlic, salt and herbs. I like to use that as a spread where otherwise I might use cheese and mayo. It’s also a nice dip for veggies.
But the questions come from the “weird” yogurt and things I thought should fail.
The Viking King from Jan 6th has been pardoned, although he served a 41 month sentence for felony obstruction already.
The college championship game is a dud. I’ll give the first 12 team playoff a C-.
The dud game is
OSU 31
ND 23
with a little over 4 minutes left.
I use the ‘yogurt for idiots’ method… InstantPot.
I use Stonybrook plain yogurt [from the grocery] as a starter.
https://amindfullmom.com/instant-pot-yogurt/
(40) John Sipher
(41) Stephen B. Slick
(42) Cynthia Strand
Intelligence Agency Fake Laptop signatories.
Are these names for real?
(50) John R. Bolton This one is.
I have the answer to my yogurt question. The actual question was:
How come, if I use my yogurt process and add NO STARTER it still eventually gels. Specifically, it gels in about 14 hours. The answer is some lactobacillus survive pasteurization!
“Some strains of Lactobacillus can survive pasteurization, including Lactobacillus lactis, Lactobacillus lindneri, Lactobacillus kefiranofaciens, Lactobacillus paracasei, and Lactobacillus plantarum”
With respect to the pardons – Vindman’s wife is PO’d that he didn’t get one!
Oh darn…
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5096251-alexander-vindman-pardons-offered/
I get exhausted just reading about everything Trump did yesterday. Amazing. Even if he wasn’t 78.
I have a new post– on my “fauxgurt” question. I’m leaving these comments open so that (possibly) the first answers on the fauxgurt question are speculations about “fauxgurt”. (Otherwise, if I move a bunch of these, the first comments will be those already posted here– and will be about something else.)
The new post is an open thread. But if anyone has comments on fauxgurt that’s useful. ( Fauxgurt is a waste of time might be a truthful comment. But…well… yeah.)
Fauxgurt thread
https://rankexploits.com/musings/2025/fauxgurt-question-open-thread/
Melania’s hat was pretty striking.
It was a crazy day yesterday. Trump flooded the zone with executive power in a shock and awe campaign. He declared everything an emergency. Trump learned something in his first term and has hit the ground running here.
The legacy media took a while coordinating their messages which made it almost like old school journalism for a day. They eventually decided to focus on Jan 6th pardons but Biden had largely defanged this line of critique.
The NYT’s is going the low road trying to sell that Musk was giving a Nazi salute, ha ha. Of course they are just reporting on what others are saying, no selection bias whatsoever.
Rubio was confirmed 99-0 so that was at least encouraging that everything won’t be reflexively anti-Trump this time around.
OSU was up 31-7 and ND had only 25 yards of offense through two quarters after their first drive. It did tighten up late which was nice but it ended like 99.9% of all 24 point leads.
Tom,
I generally like Melania’s fashion statements. Not all of it, but most. I’m not going to imitate it– I’m going to stick to my super casual leggings and so on. But I like it just as much as, say, Michelle Obama.
During the last Trump administration the media liked to slam it. But I think that was mostly just anti-Trumpism. Melania’s outfits are nice.
Tom Scharf wrote: “He declared everything an emergency. ”
I only noticed two emergencies:
(1) The border. That is hard to argue with.
(2) Energy. Important, but hardly an emergency.
Did I miss some?
The border is not an emergency at the moment, but I definitely agree that border enforcement overall is an emergency of not trying at all. Trump at least has the backing of the citizens for this one. The progressive lawyers will tie all this up in courts but the battle can be won anyway.
Asylum needs to be reset, specifically who can apply, where they can stay during processing, and the threshold of evidence required.
Everyone knows almost everyone here are economic refugees and that farce just needs to stop. We can have a discussion on how we treat economic refugees but not by pretending they are asylum seekers and openly abusing immigration laws.
If I even notice the fashion then it must be either super good or super bad.
They treated Obama’s wife as a model and put her on the cover of endless magazines while dismissing Trump’s actual model(?) of a wife. The arts can be fickle like that but this looked like political black listing.
I bet it is pretty hard being Trump’s wife, Biden should have given her the Medal of Freedom.
300K people a month entering the country illegally is an emergency.