Data Comparisons

We have a winner for the JAS NH Sea Ice Bet!

10 Comments

William Chapman of The Cryosphere Today posted their results for the JAS NH Sea Ice Extent : 6.20727 Million square km. The winner is…..Steve Mosher! You can see the distribution of bets, and the “high/low” ranges based on a Cochrane-Orcutt fit below:

Figure 1: Bets and winning values shown. Steve Mosher Wins Brownies!
Figure 1: Steve Mosher Wins Brownies!

Oddly enough, if we round to 3 significant figures, the ice extent equals the “low” range of the uncertainty in the regression. I slapped the 2008 data point onto the graph showing the trend in JAS NH sea ice since 1950. Voila!

Figure 2: NH Sea Ice from CT
Figure 2: NH Sea Ice from CT

Steve Mosher– You have my email. Send me your address; I’ll make the brownies with nuts. For bravely making the closest vote on the low side, Phil gets brownies too. I’ll email him and get his address. I will be following the recipe in The Joy of Cooking. (I’ll probably bake the brownies tomorrow morning so I can mail nice fresh brownies.)

10 thoughts on “We have a winner for the JAS NH Sea Ice Bet!”

  1. Stats is not my game, but how come every bet that falls with the measurement uncertainty is not a winner?

    I’ve always thought that trying to ‘improve’ a prediction of data when any calculation falls within the measurement uncertainty was a case of making unnecessary work. And it cannot be shown that any ‘improvement’ was in fact more nearly accurate.

    Thanks

  2. Thanks. I’ll email you the address. I’m headed out of country, but if we time it right they can arrive on my birthday.

  4. Wait a minute.

    This thread says, “Bet the magnitude of the 7 day average for Nov. 1-7, 2008”

    And this thread says the bet is for Nov 1-8.

    And yet here it is only 15 October, 2008 and we have a winner ??

    Must be another one of those Temporal Teleconnection thingys.

  5. Dan– There was a summer brownie bet for the July, Aug, Sept minimum. In principle, that ended on Oct. 1, but it was based on a table at the Cryosphere today, and William Chapman just posted the results!

    The upcoming brownie bet is for Nov. I need to fix the “8”. It’s Nov1-7 inclusive.

  6. Dan— On the statistical issue: the reason everyone doesn’t win is that a) it’s a bet and b) if I did that, I’d have to bake brownies for the entire planet!

    This is a weird betting system. No one loses any money, and I have to bake brownies regardless.

  7. Lucia
    Sure, a lousy deal.
    Just for the record I, am not doubting your baking skills, but I am not in it for the brownies 🙂 I think the bet will have participants, brownies or not.

    Perhaps it would help to consider a fairly new definiton that resolved an old problem posed by Wittgenstein? ( Yes, W. the philosopher)
    W. claimed that it was impossible -or at least very difficult, to give a good generic definition of GAME. (What constitutes a game?).

    An american (who’s name eludes me for the moment) has fairly recently given a short and elegant solution:

    GAME : The voluntary overcoming of unnecessary rules.

    Cassanders
    In Cod we trust

  8. I still find it odd that the CT JAS average went from about 1E6 km2 larger than the same average for JAXA extent for 2002 to 2006 to 0.22E6 km2 less than JAXA for 2007 and 2008.

  9. Ugh. The Mosh-pit lowballed me. I feel like one of those people on The Price is Right who get sandbagged by a buck.

    Congrats, man.

  10. I object.

    None of us that were in the original Ice Extent Derby were informed of
    of any changes and many of us stuck our necks out early.

    25 Oct is the closing for the cookie cup and results will be announced
    after JAXA have adjusted the data.

    If this is not true then I’m going to tell my mum you all cheated.

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