The RSS Anomaly has been reported here. Though we have been freezing our rears in Chicago, the global temperature anomaly rose relative to December. Since much of the focus for tropospheric temperatures involves values since the satellites began, I computed the trend since 1979. (The graph only displays since 1980.)
Interestingly, January’s anomaly happens to fall almost smack dab on the trend line. That’s bound to happen sometimes.
I think the RSS data are interesting ( and from my own eyeballing) , I expect similar results form UAH.
While the trend for the later years do not “fit nicely” with “CO2 as the main driver” for climate, the january results does not fit nicely with the “Sun (sunspots as proxy) drives the climate”, either.
As the response-time for the atmosphere are farily short, shouldn’t the long hiatus in sunspot numbers soon start to materialize in the temp records…at least in the atmosphere?
Cassanders
In Cod we trust
Cassanders:
If the insolation drops, that must eventually affect surface temperatures. But sources suggest the effect of variations within the range we normally experience should be small relative to CO2.
What frustrates me is that global warming must be affecting everywhere except the Midwest. It has indeed been cold, and my heating bill was a frightening thing to behold. Right now I would appreciate the warming coming over here for a change!
Doug,
I crocheted two blankets. Needless to say, I’m feeling the cold too.
Seems temperature was nearly flat from the beginning of the record until around 1998-2002 where it stepped up about 0.25deg anomaly (visually) and stayed flat for a few years.
If temperature peaks in the next month or two and then follows the historical pattern in appearance, seems like we may be at the beginning of a new “step down” in temperature (assuming the step nature continues) — to about 0.1deg anomaly. If so, the net warming would have been about 0.033 deg/decade over the last 30 years.
January was extremely hot across southern Australia. Numerous hottest ever records, a lot of agriculture damaged and Melbourne’s transport system broke down (railways buckled in the heat). Not very nice.
Nathan,
I Illinois, we have pothole making season and pothole fixing season. This winter, we’ve made lots of potholes!
I googled and found this:
http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2008/s2477350.htm
43C in Melbourne. That is toasty!
Yeah it’s been very warm in Melbourne and Adelaide. 43 isn’t uncommon, we normally get one or two days a year around that here in Perth. Adelaide copped a belting this year though, a whole week over 40. One day was almost 46. I began to hope that we would get snowstorms like England and NE US! Maybe we stole your heat?
For us 43C would be very, very hot. But yes, I think you stole our heat. I have a message on my Dad’s answering machine. There are freeze warmings in Florida. I hope he has warm enough blankets. As typical of Florida, his place is not designed for cold. There’s no furnace!
He no longer has a dog, so I hope he has an electric blanket!
The south of europe has all the heat the north of both continents are missing. We were over a degree warmer than average
a good site:
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/climate/synop.html
And just north of London we’ve had another snowfall this morning (although worse about 50-100 miles north of us). I’d quite like some of this warmth that is afflicting Australia. Although it isn’t anywhere near as cold as it was around the new year, when daytime maximum temperatures were struggling to get above freezing for days on end.
As a curiosity, the northern hemisphere areas where global warming is a political issue (western Europe, North America) all seem to be having relatively cold and snowy winters, whereas the places that care less (southern Europe, Russia etc) are relatively warm.
Anyway, it’s all weather and not climate at the moment – let’s see what happens over the next few months and years.
I just ran an Augment Dickey Fuller test on the RSS anomaly data in the chart above. It rejects the hypothesis that the series is non-stationary with a probability of 98-99%. This suggests there is very little evidence in this data that there is anything out of the ordinary going on.
It would be a shame to distort the global economy based on a percieved trend in such a short time series.
I still believe we are looking at temperature anomalies over to short of a time frame.
The anomalies from the four data sources showed a temperature increase for Jan 09 although record freezing in the Northern Hemisphere. There is a lot of $$$$$$$$$ funding at stake here for the Government Global Warming now renamed Climate Change Departments. You do’nt suppose UAH and RSS administrators have finaly bowed to pressure from Jim Hansen et al.
Peter (Comment#10547) February 18th, 2009 at 4:14 am
The ol Conspiracy theory will never go away I’m sure. But, Roy Spencer / John Christy of UAH bowing? Maybe it’s more like their superior UAH product is not any much more. The sats seem to react a little more fierce to certain atmospheric conditions… after all, they have to look through clouds, temperature layer inversions (some near permanent here as told be the regular thunder, mid winter) and what not to reconstruct a resemblance what GISTEMP/HadCRUT3v/NCDC compile and they are close enough to know that the conspiracy must be gargantuum, which good old McInTear surely will audit out for that not too happen 😀
Waiting with not exact baited breath on HadOBS, HadCRUT3v and Crutem3v to confirm the global warming trend resumption… well it never stopped, really.
Peter–
To short a time frame to learn what?
You can’t determine the minimum appropriate length of time without also specifying what you are trying to detect or test.
Sekerob–
McInTear? Please avoid that sort of thing.
The satellites do have issues; the ground stations have issues. I don’t think there conspiracies on either side. There is nothing wrong with individual looking into data quality issues on the part of either group.