Data Comparisons

Sheep Shrinkage: It’s probably cosmic rays.

35 Comments

Today, on the basis of a recent article about climate change induced sheep shrinkage appearing in Science, Gavin informed his flock the phenomenon might result in a climate feedback he dubs the “second sheep-albedo effect” which would extend the Team’s equally speculative “sheep-albedo effect”.

I was saddened to see the tendency of the herd at RC to embrace the hasty connection between observations of shrinking sheep and climate change without considering the obvious alternate theory. Nematodes are well known to affect the size, health and reproductive success of Soay sheep. Moreover, cosmic rays are known to enlarge the number of mutations in nematodes.

Is it any great leap to suggest that the smaller sheep size is a consequence of some cosmic-ray induced mutation in nematodes that either permits smaller sheep to survive or kills off the larger sheep?

Surely, we should wait for the authors of the sheep study to investigate the cosmic-ray-nematode-mutation before concluding the sheep shrinkage is the result of global warming or going further and suggesting any secondary-sheep albedo effect.

If any of my readers are expert in the effect of cosmic rays on nematode mutations and its effect on sheep evolution, I propose we write a proposal to study this phenomenon. There can’t be many existing experts on this topic, so we should have as good a shot as anyone.

Credits: Sheep image hotlinked from Have You Any Wool in Elmhurst Illinois. The shop is owned by Hank Henry, one of our commenters.

35 thoughts on “Sheep Shrinkage: It’s probably cosmic rays.”

  2. Well, yes and NO. Leprechauns are well known for travelling the world on tamed Nematodes in much the same way as travelling on giant worms described in “Dune” . Indeed the author probably got the idea from for his science fiction series from this fact. Now tamed nematodes do not infect sheep so more leprechanuns, less small sheep and less global warming. This negative forcing effect seems to contracdict earlier theories that Leprechanuns cause global warming

  3. Really, Colin, I am appalled at your irresponsible and contrarian denial of the established consensus that Leprechauns are responsible for the catastrophic global warming which has led to this unprecedented reduction in sheep magnitude. No doubt you are in the pay of Big Silk: nothing else could explain your disgraceful behaviour. Any apparent effects of nematodes are easily explained, as detailed ad nauseam here, here and here.

  4. The author of the shrinking sheep study should have read his own references.

    a previous study, referred to by Coulson, was of Soay sheep mortality, and showed these two factors had the most effect:

    First was population. Duh.

    Second was weather. Again, Duh.

    The highest correlation was to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Apparently the NAO affected BOTH population and weather. Duh3.

  5. Zeke– I’d be happy to investigate the Leprechaun connection at the same time. As Colin described, the connection between nematodes and leprechauns may be complex. I suspect it happens at the subgrid scale for climate models: we’ll need to a parameterization.

  6. Without sinking to the level of worms, one could easily respond (if one so wished) by pointing out that regional (not global) warming (or cooling) would hypothetically lead to the smaller sheep, and therefore even if these particular sheep are shrinking, some sheep somewhere are probably growing larger as well. Then again, if all changes to all sheep everywhere are attributed to climate change, then perhaps we must worry that we are having the wool pulled over our eyes!

  7. Lucia is, of course, a paid up agent of Big Silk, as shown by comment #15731 in this thread. Her comments are unsupported in peer reviewed literature and reflecs an unfamiliarity with the concept of ovine regression/validation. In summary, her criticisms have no merit.

  8. Lucia, lest we forget that most granite has natural deposits of uranium with its .96% or so radioactive isotope, and that sheep and goats have been traditionally raised on marginal areas with granite exposures. Nor should we forget that the small farm with intervening gardens, woods, and human habitation has been replaced by monoculture, large farms that an explosion in nematodes is not unusual, but expected. Combine increased Cosmic rays with increased density of the monoculture (sheep) in marginal lands (a realtive increase in background radiation), and an increased density of nematodes (collary of a parasite in monoculture farming), and you do have the makings of a peer-reveiwed (already done by others, the best kind of “new” paper) paper.

  9. I think the results are premature. A few more years of warming may lead to yet larger sheep once again…its that ‘inverted ewe’ correlation between sheep size and temperature at play.

  10. I think more research funding needs to be allocated to understanding the standard deviation of the sheep population. Whilst it may appear useful to also examine the standard deviations of shepherds as a check, this may be wise to avoid to reduce the risk of arousing the interest of sheep alarmists.

    Most probable explanation is a simple teleconnection. More warming, less demand for wool, wool produced by hair follicles, so to produce less wool means smaller sheep. It’s a natural response to global warming.

    As for the leprechauns, given their economy was largely driven by cobbling, the shift away from quality footwear to plastic trainers meant they would have become victims of our recession and insatiable love of petrochemicals. Luckily leprechauns traditionally invested their profits in gold, the rising price of gold and cheap fares from Ryanair have allowed some to relocate to warmer climes-

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crichton_Leprechaun

    Rumors that this location was selected having read ‘State of Fear’ are unconfirmed at this time.

  12. As I mentioned yesterday, it’s more evidence of the benign nature of a certain level of warming when it reduces infant (lamb) mortality…

  14. Animals breeding to extreme small and large size on islands is very well documented.
    Once again AGW is eating up brains and reducing the answers to all questions to “global warming”, ignoring all history, fact or established prior knowledge.
    When the science is settled, thinking is apparently not required.

  18. This story is an excellent example of the sort of OF [i.e. Ovine Feces or Sheep Shit] that the nematodes at RC feed on … Let’s hope that AGW/ACC makes them smaller too and fast, to the point of vanishing.

  19. Wow looks like the IPCC people/scientists are admitting that ALL the climate models are all c##p or BS.
    http://www.leif.org/EOS/2009GL038082.pdf
    Also the head of the EPA, Jackson is admitting that US efforts would not do anything so forget the whole thing anyway.. she probably was influenced by Carlins’s report.. she read it and in her privacy had a look at the current graphs and charts on (even IPCC sites) and came to a conclusion (she WUWT). Basically covering their b######ds.. just in case better not follow the AGW blindly anymore. LOL

  20. I fitted a nonlinear trend line using an embedding period of 10,000 years without padding and proved, robustly, that woolly mammoths were, in fact, giant sheep.

    I therefore infer that this is a 100% natural progression and that in another 10,000 years sheep will have shrunk to such a size that they will be invisible, even with the aid of our most powerful electron microscopes.

    This also is further evidence that leprechauns could be the remains of a very ancient race.

    There is no need for fanciful explanations when a simple extrapolation reveals the past and the future. I did contemplate calculating error bands at both ends of the fitted line but decided this might confuse non-experts. Those who understand these things can, of course, consult the standard statistical literature where my method is explained.

    Yours R

  21. Maybe you’re missing the obvious answer because it is so obvious. We’re talking about global warming, right? When things get warmer they expand. The sheep are not getting bigger. The island on which they live has expanded so they look smaller. This is physics. It is undisputed.

  23. I think we can safely conclude that Sheep Shrinkage is probably similar to Human Shrinkage, a la Seinfeld. Cold Water is one of the culprits.

    Yes, I went there. And I apologize. 😉

    Andrew

  24. Global Sheep Mass (GSM) is a constant.

    Mass/Sheep-Sheep (MSS) + Mass/Human Sheep (MHS) = 1

    The recent increase in HS pursuant to C02 increases is balanced by reduction in Total Mass/Sheep-Sheep TM/SS.

    Still looking for HS for peer review.

  26. Further analysis suggests that the smaller sheep are in fact sheep who have had their wool removed as part of a recognised annual solar driven cycle. The “smaller” sheep have new wool which is whiter than the old shaggier coat. Initial results suggest that these two factors cancel each out … Missing this damping factor out of the study was shear ( groan ) incompetence when it is described in the literature as the Constant Ratio Albedo for Sheep Shearing “CRASS”

  28. No No No No,

    It is all SOLAR!!!! Just like a skin exposed to the sun or heat in tanning, with the high level of sun output during the latest solar maximum, the sheep skins have SHRUNK stretched out on the SHEEP!!!

    It is soooooo obvious!!!!

  29. I’m sure too much is unknown.
    1. Has it been examined whether someone is breeding sheep to be smaller, perhaps to get more wool from less food?
    2. Are their owners different, perhaps due to many city boys retiring to a farm?
    3. Is the population of sheep the same, or is prime sheep pasture no longer being used for that purpose?
    4. Are sheep being fed differently? British cattle feed was changed several years ago.
    5. Have prices for wool or mutton changed? Their care might have been altered depending upon whether they are raised primarily for wool or food.
    6. How do observations differ from sheep models?
    7. What are the results from sheep coring paleoclimatology studies? Have the results been replicated by independent coring of the same sheep?

  30. Scooter–
    These seem to be wild sheep, which also seem to be actively monitored. I found a paper discussing the effects of people treating some of the sheep for nematodes. I don’t know if people have been more or less active in interfering with the sheep’s lives over the last 50 years.

    I am waiting for the paleo studies.

  31. Sheep seem to be pretty fragile beasts. In the 90s, ozone depletion was supposedly causing them to go blind in Chile. I can rembember Sam Donelson huffing and puffing about this as a smoking gun that all of civilization was in peril from ozone depletion. You can still Google the hand-wringing aritcles in the Washington Post and New York Times, although we now know from climate scientists and current science journalists that the historical media is not to be trusted.

    Whatever the merits of the real science around ozone depletion, it is interesting how easy it is to find an “effect” when you think you know what you’re looking for.

    In this case, the “science” was self-correcting.

    http://www.wunderground.com/education/holefaq.asp#sheep

  32. Lucia,
    Normally I find your blog illuminating, but this time I feel you are wide of the mark. Let me explain this slowly. Sheep live outdoors. As the globe warms, more water is evaporated from the oceans. This means that west-facing islands receive more rainfall and are warmer.

    Wool shrinks when it gets warm and wet. Sheep are made of wool.

    OK? Some people just don’t think things through.

    JF
    (Actual situation: oil and surfactant spills have altered the nutrient dynamics of the Atlantic. Reduced fecal fall-down has led to light carbon excess in the atmosphere, reduced fertilisation of seaweeds and thus poorer feed values for seaweed-eating sheep. It’s the Kriegesmarine effect. To show that this is real science, unlike that CO2 nonsense, I make a prediction: studies of sheep size during the WWII temperature excursion will find a drop in carcass size from 1940 to ’46.)

  33. I heard somewhere that “sheeps bladders may be employed to prevent earthquakes”… is there any truth to that? 😉

    Happy Friday Everyone! 🙂

    Andrew

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