Data Comparisons

AQUA: Finally Below ‘Ave Since 2002’

25 Comments

It seems I hadn’t been looking at daily AQUA anomalies since roughly the end of July. I thought I’d take a peak today. It looks like AQUA is now showing the temperature drop we anticipated based on the transition out of El Nino:

These anomalies are computed from data available at AMSU temperatures and subtracting the “baseline” temperature from the observed temperature for the matching day.

Those looking at what Andrew_KY might call “squiggly lines” will see that

  1. The red squiggly line for 2010 indicates the temperature anomalies broke the record for daily highs fairly frequently during early portions of 2010. Those who believe in squiggly lines would be justified in interpreting this to suggest that 2010 was a scorcher.
  2. The temperature indicated by the red squiggly line didn’t break the record for the all time daily high. (I was anticipating a broken record early in the year before Channel 5 was replaced with the AQUA.)
  3. The red squiggly line has now fallen below the average temperature computed based 2002-2009 shown in yellow. (That is: The temperature on Oct. 25 is lower than the average based on Oct. 5s from 2002-2009 inclusive.)
  4. Given the persistence of short term weather patterns, it appears that the daily temperature anomaly relative to the full baseline may soon turn negative.rent graph goes through Oct. 26, so it’s even possible the anomaly might have been negative yesterday. 🙂

Of course, we don’t know how low the temperature anomaly will drop before any new El Nino forms sending them back higher. Absent volcanic eruptions, I’d be surprised to see it hit the absolute minimum value for the full record. Still, you never know. We did hit that briefly during a fairly strong La Nina in 2008. So, we’ll see.

25 thoughts on “AQUA: Finally Below ‘Ave Since 2002’”

  1. Ah, when I’ve been looking at the AMSU temps I always assumed the “average” line was only representing the average since 2002, since those are the only years to plot. However, judging by the fact that it still was 0.048 C above that average on Oct. 25, I guess that average line is actually the 20 year baseline? Do they have data for those other 12 years somewhere?

    Also, those Sea Surface Temperatures seem to be dipping pretty low relative to all years…I wonder if we can compare that to a 20 year baseline or something?

  2. Troy_CA

    Do they have data for those other 12 years somewhere?

    I assume so, but I don’t think it’s on line.

    Which Sea Surface Temps are you interested in? If the data are available, we can re-baseline.

  3. Lucia, have you read anything about Monckton being disinvited from a climate debate in England? I would really like your opinion on Monckton, I find it rather hilarious that whenever his name comes up, the global warmers go running. And you know this is true. Every time it is found out that he is going to speak or do a presentation…oops! You can’t invite him!

    I respect that you try to be apolitical and totally in the middle of these issues but we are talking about policy that will involve huge amounts of money.

    Also I would like to know where you stand on political issues like Obamacare. I think it is a disaster and want to point out 2 items in the bill that I don’t think many people know about. First, a doctor cannot own a hospital under Obamacare. Are you freaking kidding me! Second, do you like being able to buy Tylenol without a prescription? Me too. Under Obamacare, you will need a prescription. I want your opinion because women have a tendency to lean heavily left but I think even you will admit that he has been a bad president. Obama starts off almost every rebuttal with “Well the last adminstration put is into debt…” Yeah, so what. You Mr. Obama, you have spent far more money than Bush, so quit blaming him for the failure of your policies.

  4. Would it be correct to say that most daily highs were set prior to 2002, since the “Max” line exceeds all other plotted lines most of the time?

  6. have you read anything about Monckton being disinvited from a climate debate in England?

    Nope. Have you?

    I would really like your opinion on Monckton, I find it rather hilarious that whenever his name comes up, the global warmers go running.

    Running where?

    Every time it is found out that he is going to speak or do a presentation…oops! You can’t invite him!

    Tim Lambert debated Monckton.

    I’ve expressed my opinion on some of the things Monckton has written up in the past. Read posts tagged Monckton here:http://rankexploits.com/musings/tag/monckton/

    Also I would like to know where you stand on political issues like Obamacare.

    I don’t blog about that.

    Second, do you like being able to buy Tylenol without a prescription?

    Yes, I like being able to do so. That said, I never buy Tylenol or even acetomophin.

    I’m not going to blog about obamacare. I’m also not going to blog about: legalized prostitution, ornithology, shoes, the local highschool girls volleyball team, or any number of topics I have no interest in blogging about.

  7. Re: Don B ,

    Would it be correct to say that most daily highs were set prior to 2002, since the “Max” line exceeds all other plotted lines most of the time?

    That’s my interpretation. I suspect most of the max line corresponds to 1998.

  9. Re: Troy_CA,
    Ok– that’s monthly. Also, it’s already reported relative to a baseline. I’d have to double check, but the baseline is probably 1979-1998 inclusive.

    In contrast,the daily channel 5 data are absolute temperatures– which is why you see warmer in the summer and colder in the winter with “noise” around that annual trend. The channel 5 data also reports the average during the baseline– so I subtracted.

  10. DonB– Interesting you mentioning La Nina. The previous big “inland hurricane” type storm was 1998. (Inland hurricane is a nick-name. The systems are different.)

    That happened when El Nino had died and La Nina was setting in. Now I’m going to have to see about the other big “inland hurricanes” and how they land relative to ENSO.

  11. Yes Lucia, he recently was. But apparently, he has been reinvited.

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/10/28/the-season-of-disinvitation-continues-monckton-and-delingpoles-mep-affair/

    Let me rephrase my question. How many times has Monckton been scheduled to present, and then turned down, since Tim Lambert? And obviously I’m taking about institutions with opposing viewpoints.

    You don’t seem to accept the premise that people are scared of debating Monckton. I said they are running and you said “where”.
    Running was not a good word choice by me. “Hiding” is better. Now, we can go about this 1 of 2 ways. You can acknowledge that I am absolutely correct, that in general, people skeptical of global warming are closed out, even after being invited to speak, or I can simply send you a ton of articles detailing people being shut out of these climate debates. If you do not reply, I will take this as an insult to my intelligence and resort to option 2. Finally, I hope you realize this is a big part of the gridlock going on between the 2 sides of this issue. Have I not commented enough on the fact that nobody will debate the heavyhitters like Monckton, Morano and a plethora of other people?

  12. Obamacare Rocks! What’s wrong with trying to provide decent health care to 47 million Americans let down by the current system which is also the cause of the majority of personal bankruptcies in the US?

    Dr Shoohsmon ‘Phud’ sucks.

    Please delete if you want Lucia

  13. Re: Dr. Shooshmon, phd. ,

    How many times has Monckton been scheduled to present, and then turned down, since Tim Lambert?

    I have no idea. I haven’t programmed Google to inform me on every blog post and news story involving Monckton.
    I don’t normally like to squelch off topic discussions– but I’m going to make an exception here because I’m perplexed. Why the heck suddenly start blathering about Monckton on a thread about AQUA? I suggest that you discuss Monckton to your hearts content on Anthony’s current post. I’m just not that interested in exchanging theories about Monckton. If I was, I’d be joining in at Anthony’s.

  15. I remember , R Spencer wrote some time ago . The new AQUA satelite meassures only 600mb and sea surface . The rest is taken from old one affected by orbital decay and not to be used for any comparisons .

  16. Since Troy CA brought it up, I would like to see the AMSU and SST graphs brought together on the same time line just to see the lag and perhaps track the lag in (quasi) real time.

  18. There is something strange with this AQUA graph. The “record” anomaly for October is obviously much, much higher than the anomaly for this October. If the “highest anomaly” means “the highest since 2002”, then it is 0.47 from October 2005, and the expected anomaly for this October, when we compare them on the graph, could not be higher than 0.30.

    However, if this interpretation that 0.239 means “0.239 above the 2002-2010 level”, then the anomaly for this October should be very similar to that of the October 2005 (since the 2002-2010 baseline is at least 0.2 deg C higher then the 1979-2010 average), which is impossible when we take a look at the graph (this October is much lower).

    If however, the “record anomaly” on that graph means “the highest in the entire record”, then we would have to find October with an anomaly of approximately 0.65-0.70 which does not exist over the entire period 1979-2010 (0.47 is the highest anomaly ever for October).

    So, does anyone has an idea what’s going on here?

  19. Ivan–
    The record is not highest since 2002. It includes previous years; there is some sort of splicing together or different instruments.

  21. AQUA atmospheric temps have bounced back up. It looks like we’ll finish October comfortably above average.

  22. BenhaminG-

    AQUA atmospheric temps have bounced back up. It looks like we’ll finish October comfortably above average.

    Yes. They have. I was going to wait for Oct 31 to post and then blog.

  24. Is it back up? Interesting. I the enso forecast that says La Nina is expected to persist– but yes, it looked weaker to me too.

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