Betting, politics

Bet When Pachauri Resigns

21 Comments

Zeke suggested we bet quatloos on whether or not Pachauri will cease to head the IPCC any time soon. So, here’s your chance. You must vote before Feb. 1.

Since the script is set up to record temperature anomalies in C not dates. For that reason, the entry form doesn’t make much sense. Ignore things like “C” (for degrees C). In the box for your prediction enter the number of the day in 2010 when he will announce he is no longer going to head the IPCC. For example, if you think he secretly resigned on Jan 1, 2010, enter ‘1’. If you think he will resign on Dec. 31, 2010, enter 365. You can enter later dates.

Since we can’t be sure when Pachauri might resign, the cut-off for betting is Feb 1.

  1. What counts as the date when Pachauri ceases to be the chair? If Pachauri resigns or is pushed out will use the date when Pachauri either announces that he is resigning or when some appropriate formal body announces they have decided relieved him of his duties. (If they say “his tenure will cease next week”, we still count this on the day when the decision is announced. ) If he fills his full term, then we use he last day of his term.
  2. We will use the time and day in New York City.
  3. The winner is whoever gets closest to the correct date.

Guess who wants Pachauri to stay?

Not to sway the voting too much toward early dates, but it’s worth nothing who wants Pachauri to stay and who wants him to go. Delignpole writes:

Here is one reason why he should stay. And here’s another. Yes that’s right. When Warmists as committed as environment editors Geoffrey Lean and Charles Clover are calling for Pachauri’s resignation with lines like this –

If we are to have the best possible predictions about climate change, urgent decisions need to be taken. The agreeable but gaffe-prone Pachauri should accept it would be wise to walk now, so some heavy-hitters can step in and prevent a disastrous slide in the IPCC’s credibility. The sooner, the better.

– then you just KNOW it must be the right thing for Pachauri to stay in post.

Feel free to provide information to help people to fine tune their bets!

21 thoughts on “Bet When Pachauri Resigns”

  2. Since we’re having fun with Pachauri this seems like a good time for this:

    Glaciergate–A relatively tame Hitler parody video

    “As chief operating officer for the cabal of Billionaires who control the global warming scam, Hitler quickly realizes the long range implications of “Glaciergate”.”

    Glaciergate: Hitler’s Last Straw

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1b-6U5MwyDM

  5. What *is* the last day of his term? A term is not strictly defined, as far as I can tell, in the IPCC rules.

    This is the relevant passage:

    “The Term of the Bureau shall be
    sufficient for the preparation of an Assessment Report and shall extend approximately one year after the
    Session at which the Assessment Report has been accepted and shall end at the Session at which the
    succeeding IPCC Bureau is elected.”

    from:

    http://www1.ipcc.ch/pdf/ipcc-principales/ipcc-principales-elections-rules.pdf

    So: how can I vote that he will not leave the post until the end of his term?

  6. David–
    I have no idea what the correct final day for his term is! You have to pick your best guess. If the IPCC rules make that ambiguous, it’s even more fun. I suspect Zeke wants to bet Pachauri will stay the full term, so which ever of you can figure out the last day best will win should Pachauri do so.

  7. We won’t know for a while, given that the date is going to be sometime in late 2013 or early 2014 …

  8. David–
    Well…. if everyone else bets early dates, we can decree you the winner when there is no possibility anyone else could be closer than your bet.

  9. If you need to know what day of the year a certain date is, just ask Google. They don’t seem to answer the question, but there is a Wikipedia article for every day which contains an approximate day of the year…I don’t know if that handles leap years.

  10. As far as I can tell Mr Pachauri was inaugurated on 2 Sept 2008 for five years. So his last day is 1 Sept 2013, 1319 days from 1/1/10 (arithmetic check someone…)

    Aw, when I voted the script did not like answer 42, but more seriously says that voting closed on 1 Jan 1970. Thanks for your efforts Lucia, although Murphy the gremlin of the blogs is still hovering.

    I was hoping to vote two whole quatloos on 1319 as after the Chinese weigh in on their requirements for AR5 the Indian government will have no choice but to support him, esp since they gave him a medal in 2008 for his IPCC service. You will have to get him out of the chair with a very big glacier…

  13. India is not uniformly in support of Pachauri:

    from the Guardian
    _________________
    Some environmentalists feel let down. Himanshu Thakkar, coordinator of the South Asia Network of Dams, River and People, said Pachauri’s standing among scientists had fallen.

    “His reaction as a scientist was unscientific and uncalled for when he said that it was ‘voodoo science’. He should resign and make way for a better person.”Indian newspapers have been as quick to lambast the IPCC for its failings as those in the west and have not hesitated to recycle personal allegations against Pachauri, though without quite the same level of personal vitriol.
    _____________________

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/jan/29/ipcc-rajendra-pachauri-glaciers

    I think I may move up my date. He may not make it past Valentines.

  17. Richard North: “Given what is about to descend upon him on Sunday, by the time the Indian media have absorbed the detail, Pachauri will be history.”

    Presumably this Sunday’s Telegraph & Times.

  18. In the Totalitarian Crowd, when a person becomes a political liability, they have to go under the bus for the sake of The Machine. I think we are close to that point.

    Andrew

  20. Richard North at eureferendum: “Pachauri is on the ropes but he ain’t down yet. The view is it will take one more “killer blow” to fell him. We think we’ve found it! Under wraps at the moment, for obvious reasons, but all will be revealed.

    R K Pachauri needs to be acquainted with the first rule of politics – DFWN … since it is a family blog, you’ll have to work it out for yourselves.”
    .
    Whether the second ‘N’ means Nerds or North remains to be seen.

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