Mount Merapi is erupting violently. WUWT reported this to their readers, providing information from The Global Volcanism Program. Because this is a climate blog, and we bet on monthly temperature anomalies, one question is: How likely is this to induce global cooling?
Well, I don’t know. I know the latitude of the volcano and the amount of material vaulted into the stratosphere matter. So, I googled a bit to read whether any news reports discuss the possibility of global cooling, mention “stratosphere”. I found some speculation mentioning the “ring of fire”, Tambora’s 1815 eruption and other factors. However, direct discussions of the current Merapi eruption inducing global cooling infrequent.
Those I found include:
- Recent volcanic activity has scientists thinking
Over the next few months, there may be some minor cooling in these localized areas due to the dust and ash. However, in order for significant cooling of the Earth’s temperature, we would have to see an eruption that sends the dust and ash 70,000 to 80,000 feet.
- Volcanic eruptions affect rainfall over Asian region
Not all eruptions have that effect, however. For instance, the continuing eruption of Indonesia’s Merapi this fall has killed dozens, but this latest episode is probably not big enough by itself to effect large-scale weather changes, scientists believe.
So far, I see no indications that people expect cooling based on eruptions so far.
Is it enough to invalidate the various temperature bets of Annan and Romm?
MikeN– I know both run bets, but I’m not familiar with the rules they set up for their bets. You could ask James and Joe themselves.
The Annan bet with the two Russian solar physicists was for the average temperature between 1998-2003 compared with that in 2012-2017.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2005/aug/19/climatechange.climatechangeenvironment
DonB, I don’t see an out for volcanoes.
Well… Still, it’s a long time until 2017, and we haven’t even gotten to 2012. If Mount Merapi erupts, the temperature will drop, but then rise. So, I doubt that eruption would mess up Annan’s bet.
Volcano or no volcano, I think James is going to win to his one.
Except around 20 or so volcanoes around the world erupt everyday.
Krakatoa has been having 100 explosions a day in the last week. video here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nXzQT52Sdec
http://www.volcanolive.com/news.html
Lucia,
“I think James is going to win to his one.”
Yes, he probably will. The decline in solar output (about -1.2 watts out of ~1365 watts per square meter) from 2003 to 2009 translates to a net -0.21 watt per square meter averaged over the Earth’s surface, while rising CO2 over that same period is equal to about +0.17 watt per square meter. Add a bit of forcing from increases in N2O and tropospheric ozone, and it is very close to a wash. Temperatures would be expected to move sideways, absent James Hansen’s vast ‘in-the-pipeline’ warming, which does seem to suggest that the claimed unrealized warming is, well… completely unrealized.
2017 will be about 2 years after the peak of the solar cycle, and even if it is a weak peak, it will likely add about 0.1 watt compared to today. Continued increases in CO2/N2O/ozone will add about 0.19 watt… 0.29 watt per square meter total. Even if the true climate sensitivity is quite low (~0.35 degree per watt), 0.29 watt ought to increase temperatures by about 0.1 degree compared to 2009.
So unless the effects of PDO/AMO drive temperatures down quite a lot, it is likely the average temperature will be a little higher for 2012 to 2017 than 1998 to 2003, and the Russian scientists will have to pay. Since the bet is in US dollars, and the Fed has decided inflation is the answer to our prayers, the bet will cost whoever pays considerably less than originally imagined in 2005.
The “out” for volcanoes, El Nino, La Nina, etc was probbly the multi-year average, hoping that would smooth out the effects; but while the ENSO effects might balance out, I don’t know what balances the cooling of aerosols.
DonB–
That’s not really an “out” in terms of Annan’s bet. It just means he thinks warming is sufficiently strong that the odds are in his favor even knowing that sometimes volcanoes erupt and depress temperatures between 2012 and 2017. I’m sure he’s aware that a Tambora like eruption in Nov. 2011 followed by a Pinatubo eruption in 2013, followed by El Chicon in 2014, coupled with the sun entering a period of low intensity, could put him on the wrong side of the bet — particularly if sensitivity turns out to be on the low side, or the economy tanks so much that emissions drop to zero today so that the level of GHG’s temporarily stops rising.
But what’s the probability that we will witness a sudden surge in volcanic eruptions along with all those other things happening at the same time? I suspect James assesses that likelyhood as small..
Liza
It is thought that to cool, the eruption must spew stuff into the stratosphere. We do not see 20 volcanoes/day go stratospheric.
The “normal” rate of volcano eruptions is already accounted for in the “normal” estimate for opacity of the atmosphere etc.
I think Annan gives a summary here.
Ha ha. Couldn’t happen to a nicer person.
Carrick,
Nice or not, the chance seems pretty good that James will win the bet.
SteveF:
They are using HadCrut for the bet:
Average to current is 0.774, average to same point in 1998 is 0.893, average over entire 1998 is 0.820.
Looks like a very long shot to me.
Carrick-
“They are using HadCrut for the bet”
I think you are referring to the bet with David Whitehouse, while others (including SteveF) are referring to the bet Don B mentioned that Annan had with two Russion solar physicists.
Thanks Troy. I was referring to the post that I supplied the url for, which I guess is the Whitehouse one.
Do you know what data set Annan is using with the Russian physicists?
Troy_CA–
Yes. It looks like James has more than one bet out there. The shorter term bet is with David Whitehouse. It seems to be based on HadCrut and he may very well lose that one. Of course, we can’t be certain La Nina might not wither prematurely and the El Nino reappear permitting a broken record in 2011. But still, it looks like David Whitehouse may very well win that bet.
The longer term bet is with the solar physicists; I think he’ll win that one.
I don’t know whether James has additional bets.
I guess the encouraging thing for me is that there is real question if James will win or lose specific bets. He made these bets based on his believe in rapid warming…. which has not so far happened as he expected.
.
At some point mainstream climate science will be under great pressure to square its projections of extreme warming (based on high assumed climate sensitivity) with substantially lower measured warming. Whether climate science revises warming estimates downward to conform with reality, or insists on projections of future catastrophes, thus loosing all credibility with the public, will not matter much. Either way, much lower than projected warming will eventually drive CAGW out of mainstream political discourse.
.
The enviro-fringe will continue to beat the drum of doom, of course, but it will not matter when the C is removed from CAGW…. few people care about a 1C rise in average temperature or a 0.75 meter rise in sea level over 200 years. At that point, energy cost and future availability will be all that really matter.
“thus losing all credibility”
Mist that edit function!
Miss that edit function!
“It is thought that to cool, the eruption must spew stuff into the stratosphere”
This volcano is. “large plume reaching 10-20 km altitude and extending now over 300 km to the west.” Stratosphere starts at 5-6 miles up from sources online in the info on the stratosphere. Flights are diverted and cancelled.
“However, in order for significant cooling of the Earth’s temperature, we would have to see an eruption that sends the dust and ash 70,000 to 80,000 feet.”
There’s no references for this assertion in that article (just pointing that out) and no definition of “significant” there either. Gee what would significant be since GW argues about fractions of one degree? “Normal” rate of volcanic activity? Hmm. I don’t think that condition ever exists. It is normal for volcanoes to explode and Krakatoa it says “normally” erupts 36 times a day; right now 100 per day.
The point of bringing up the Indonesian event for me in the other thread was pointing out how many people have been hurt or killed by these things (volcanoes; tsunamis; earthquakes etc) in the last couple of years. Hundreds of thousands of people or more compared to and all the fear and blame and money spent for made up suffering, blame on extreme weather and complete and uncalled for panic; bigotry and hatred; corruption of the scientific method too, all for a fraction of one degree temperature rise -allegedly.
my screen says next to my comment “( If you (“you” in bold) just posted this comment edit & delete buttons should appear.)”
and there are no edit and delete buttons.
test now that I fixed look up for comment time.
Test of edit function.
Lucia,
Thanks. Now there is an edit function. Its was gone for a very long time.
Liza– I’m trying to test….. Does it appear for you now?
This is interesting speculation at Spiegel, in german though:
http://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/natur/0,1518,727092,00.html
Geologen warnen vor Mega-Eruption des Merapi
google translation:
A rough estimate shows that the reservoir contains three times as much magma as the eruption of Tambora volcano, Indonesia also has been spat out 1815 – the largest outbreak of the last 10,000 years, allowed to cool the world’s climate for years to come.
Lucia,
It is working, but there is no need (I think) for the “( If you just posted this comment edit & delete buttons should appear.) ” to be there.
SteveF–
Yes. They always appear if I’m logged in. But that wasn’t doing you anygood. There is a ‘bug’ in the plugin. I just edited the plugin to get the “time” by looking at the stored value of comment_date_gmt instead of the store value for comment_date. The later was off by 6 hours, so the edit/delete buttons never appeared.
This would not be a problem for the plugin developer who appears to be in the UK so his comment_date and comment_date_gmt may be identical!
Steve– I’m going to strip that out. I’d put it in precisely to let people tell me if they weren’t seeing it. Liza wasn’t– but I assume since you can, so can she.
Well, anyway, thanks for fixing the bug… now typos can’t be so easily attacked by certain people as proof your arguments are weak!
Annan’s bets are not based on rapid warming. He has a bet AGAINST Joe Romm’s predictions of ice loss.
The Russians are betting on a different theory of warming entirely, not the pace, I think it is the sun will usher in global cooling.
Romm has another bet with Thomas Fuller.
Here are the details as set forth by Romm on his weblog: “The bet is “the 2010s [2010 to 2019] will be the hottest decade in the temperature record, more than 0.15°C hotter than the hottest decade so far [i.e. the 2000s, from 2000 to 2009] using the NASA GISS dataset.†I am gonna ask, as I have for other bets, that “if two or more volcanic eruptions with the energy level equal to or greater than the 1991 Mount Pinatubo shall occur between now and the end of 2019, then the bet is voided.†Let me know if that’s ok — this is a bet about AGW, not the vagaries of volcanoes. We also didn’t settle on an amount. I have a lot of $1000 bets out there. I’m game at that level or less. Your call.]”
MikeN–
I would not have taken that bet offered by Romm. I think the warming is not 0.2C/decade, but it very well might be 0.15C/decade. I would certainly never let Romm take a bet where he wins if the warming rate is much lower than Romm seems to suggest (in rather dramatic tones).
To get volcanic cooling you have to blast the sulfate into the stratosphere. Otherwise it rains out PDQ and is a purely local (although very unpleasant) effect. See, Mt. St. Helen’s which blew out sideways and had very little global effect, although it knocked the surroundings for a loop.