NOAA/NCDC and HadCrut3 NH&SH have both reported anomalies for May. Like GISS which reported a 0.1C decline from May to June reported by GISS, HadCru and NOAA also report declines.
For today’s post, I figured I’d just show the same types of graphs I showed for GISS earlier this month and answer the same questions (which I picked myself. 🙂 )
The temperature anomalies for May are circled in blue: it was the hottest May anomaly in NOAA’s record, and the 2nd hottest May HadCRUT record.
NOAA monthly anomalies 1980:
HadCrut monthly anomalies since 1980:
It’s worth noting that we are just coming out of an El Nino; all other things being equal, monthly surface temperatures will have a tendency to fall for this reason. However, owing to the properties of averaging, the 12 month lagging averages for June will rise relative to May unless June 2010 is cooler than June 2009. Scanning 2009 temperatures relative to 2010 temperatures and the distance away from the past records, I’d guess HadCrut will likely not set a record for highest 12 month lagging average every; NOAA likely will. (GISS Temp has.)
Because I’ve been wondering whether or not the temperature would pierce the multi-model means during this El Nino, and at least one reader seems to want a new version of “the mug”, I think it’s interesting to note the 12 month lagging averages for both NOAA and HadCrut remain below the 12 month lagging average for the multi-model mean under the A1B scenario. (I’m sure there will be those who decree this feature uninteresting. 🙂 )
Love Dr. Spencer’s droll ending of his last post:
“At this pace of cooling, I suspect that the second half of 2010 could ruin the chances of getting a record high global temperature for this year. Oh, darn.”
GISS may well set a record for annual averages ending in either Nov. or Dec. in 2010. I’d at least wait for it to stop breaking records for the overall 12 month lagging average before and start seeing substantial declines before I’d bet against breaking the previous GISSTemp record.
If June 2010 is cooler than may 2010, we’ll get a downtick in the GISS 12 month running average next month– but otherwise, nope. We need to see a prompt decline to below 2009 temps to avoid a new GISSTemp record.
what cooling are people talking about? the new channel 5 (AQUA) on UAH is placing daily temperatures ABOVE the years since 2002.
(so it might be second behind 1998, again.)
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http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/amsutemps.html
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i am still having good fun with the “string of hottest and second hottest months in all datasets is unimportant” meme. remember, the el Nino was a minor one. getting damned close to 1998 temperatures constantly should make a “sceptic” sceptic!
I’ll disagree with sod in that this El Nino was strong in both amplitude and duration. It is no suprise that the temps this year will come in a close second behind 98
I’ll disagree with sod in that this El Nino was strong in both amplitude and duration. It is no suprise that the temps this year will come in a close second behind 98
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you are wrong.
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http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso//enso.mei_index.html
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if you look at the graph, el Nino 2010 is not really different to ANY el Nino in the record.
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a comparison with the 1998 one is plain out stupid.
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i think that it is pretty obvious, that the records we are seeing now, are pretty surprising for the “globe is cooling” crowd.
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trying to excuse the current temperature with “some months are only second hottest” and “it is el nino” is pretty pathetic, for a “sceptic2.
Hmmm, overhere average May temperature was more than 2 degrees Celsius below normal, with a -3 degrees night on May 29th…
In June day temperature barely reaches the 20 degrees, still can’t get out at night without a jacket.
Still, average temperatures can fill climate blogs nicely…
Hoi Polloi (Comment#46350) June 22nd, 2010 at 6:40 am
Hmmm, overhere average May temperature was more than 2 degrees Celsius below normal, with a -3 degrees night on May 29th…
In June day temperature barely reaches the 20 degrees, still can’t get out at night without a jacket.
Still, average temperatures can fill climate blogs nicely…
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you do understand, that “overhere” is NOT global temperature.
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click anomaly on the map, and it will tell you, where the heat was.
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http://www.remss.com/msu/msu_data_monthly.html
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having local cool temperature on some place on a globe that got warmer, is a nice thing. we experience temperature and weather, similar to what they used to be like. (aka Europe last winter)
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but you also have to think about places, that experience a local heat wave ON TOP of the global warming. ouch…..
Sod–
I’m not sure why it bothers you that the post observes that May is the 2nd hottest not the hottest in the HadCrut record. (Note– the post doesn’t say “only”.) Ever since El Nino hit, visitors have been asking if we hit records when I posted– so now I’m stating mentioning whether or not there is a record. Obviously, either one was set or it wasn’t. If it wasn’t it’s going to be the “xth” hottest, with X≠1.
I also don’t know why you mind that I mention the fading El Nino when discussing the 12 month average. Neven in particular asked about record 12 month averages, so I’m curious about all of them. Lagging averages do peak a few months after El Nino, so those will continue to rise even thought temperatures are falling and there is still a chance NOAA will set a new record for 12 month lagging average.
I can’t even begin to imagine why my mentioning El Nino in this context bothers you. Maybe because I’m guessing that despite the lag HadCrut won’t set a record? Beats me!
sorry lucia, my first post might have been a little confusing. the first part of that post (cooling..) was in reply to fred, who quoted Spencer’s pretty childish remark.
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yes, the second part of my post was my observation of the way in which you report these temperature data.
we have a string of record months and second hottest months in basically all datasets.
this does OF COURSE happen during an el Nino year. but it was a minor el Nino. and that is the only thing i would have added to your original post, because the rest of what you wrote about el Nino was fine and didn t bother me at all!
sod
sorry lucia, my first post might have been a little confusing. the first part of that post (cooling..) was in reply to fred, who quoted Spencer’s pretty childish remark.
= = = = = = = = = = =
Childish? He holds a minority view in his field and is subjected to a certain degree of hostility for it. A little ‘told ya so’ at the end of a blog post is hardly childish by the standards of the climate blog wars. Positively restrained Id say.
sod:
I don’t think MEI is the same thing as impact of ENSO on climate.
It’s impact on global mean temperature is probably a better measure of that.
I don’t think MEI is the same thing as impact of ENSO on climate.
It’s impact on global mean temperature is probably a better measure of that.
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i am ready to learn. so what determines the temperature effect of an el Nino? and why does MEI not cover that? and in what respect was the 2010 el Nino “strong in both amplitude and duration”???
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i am serious interested in those answers!
Sod
How are you diagnosing this? The ONI hit 1.8 in NDJ. That appears to put it in the top 1/3rd of things designated El Ninos. Calling this “minor” would seem to be like calling a 6′ tall guy “short” because he’s not tall relative to highschool basketball players.
Wow sod, looking at the map of your link, from deep purple to deep red, that must be darn HOT! Coming from metallics I can remember looking at the color red/yellow I could tell what temperature melting steel was, those color respresents like 1300 degrees (http://www.blksmth.com/heat_colors.htm) … Nice drama…
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Now, we’re talking here like 0,1-0,2 degrees difference, can you feel it, sod? Today it’s 20 degrees, last nite 11 degrees and I’ve survived!
How are you diagnosing this? The ONI hit 1.8 in NDJ. That appears to put it in the top 1/3rd of things designated El Ninos. Calling this “minor” would seem to be like calling a 6′ tall guy “short” because he’s not tall relative to highschool basketball players.
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sorry lucia, but i simply looked at the MEI index. i must have picked up the sloppy expression, from your use of the term “not a record” 🙂
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on a completely different topic, you might want to take a look at Roy Spencer’s latest post. as you wanted to comment on comparisons with certain episodes.
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http://www.drroyspencer.com/2010/06/the-global-warming-inquisition-has-begun/
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i already found the inquisition part quite stupid. but it gets much worse…
ow, we’re talking here like 0,1-0,2 degrees difference, can you feel it, sod?
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Hoi, i think that your lack of understanding of colour codes on maps is pretty depressing.
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but yellow indicates +4°K on that map. not 0.1
Should we tell Sod that Kevin is missing some heat?
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The ONI hit 1.8 in NDJ
= = = = = = = = = = = = =
The ONI is based on sea surface temperatures rather than air pressure differentials IIRC so that would tend to build in a bias towards higher ONI numbers for each el Nino event should we be experiancing global warming….
Anyone care to disagree?
dorlomin–
Sure. But that’s what NOAA publishes in the weekly ENSO reports and for the time being, the effect of the trend on the absolute values of ONI the built in bias that concerns you should be small.
If I used MEI and searched through will get pretty much the same result: This ENSO is not a record, but “minor” isn’t quite the correct word. The peak magnitude is stronger than the average peak.
If Sod’s point is that without a positive trend, this ENSO doesn’t explain why we might break 1998 records: That’s correct. On the other and, if we are comparing to the multi-model mean trend: that mean more or less averages out ENSO. So, if the multi-model mean is on track compared to the earth, all other things being equal (which they may not be), we might anticipate the earth trend to lie above the mean shortly after the top of El Nino’s an below the mean shortly after the bottom of La Nina’s.
sod:
I can’t answer to the second question, I’d like somebody to point to quantitative numbers on that. As to the first… that is an ongoing research topic I believe.
One comment is it’s thought that ENSO teleconnections function which relates ENSO activity to temperature in remote places in the world is itself modulated by other global oscillations.
E.g., see this. (See also the list of other pubs at the end of that.)
It is sensible to not expect a simple metric like MEI to be able to predict the effect of the ENSO on global climate, because the function that relates ENSO to climate itself varies over time.
dorlomin (Comment#46369) You wrote, “The ONI is based on sea surface temperatures rather than air pressure differentials IIRC so that would tend to build in a bias towards higher ONI numbers for each el Nino event should we be experiancing global warming….
“Anyone care to disagree?”
Yup. The data diagrees with you. Since the start of the OI.v2 (satellite-based) SST dataset, the trend in NINO3.4 SST anomalies is negative:
http://i49.tinypic.com/70x93s.jpg
And looking at a long-term NINO3.4 SST anomaly dataset (HADISST), the linear trend is flat:
http://i50.tinypic.com/2qa4nk2.jpg
Computer models may project that NINO3.4 SST anomalies will rise, but the data disagrees.
Sod,
In case you need to be convinced how important El Nino (including the one that has just finished) is for sea surface temperatures, read this comment from Spencer: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/06/22/spencer-ssts-headed-down-fast/
On a related note
quote
We’ve now had seven countries in Asia and Africa, plus the Asian portion of Russia, that have beaten their all-time hottest temperature record during the past two months. This includes Asia’s hottest temperature of all-time, the astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) mark set on May 26 in Pakistan. All of these records are unofficial, and will need to be certified by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, setting six national heat records in one month is eight in one summer is unprecedented. The only year which can compare is 2003, when six countries (the UK, France, Portugal, Germany, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein) all broke their all-time heat records
/quote
from Jeff Masters
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1519&tstamp=
The second half of June has seen something like a 0.5C jump in temperature on the AQUA channel 05 as well.
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps+002
June may not be a record breaker but it is shaping to be on the rather high end for the month.