Betting

Bet on December UAH!

32 Comments

I’ve been waiting for the November UAH– but it’s still delayed. I’m just going to break down and let everyone bet on December now. I want to give people a few days, but I figure you don’t need that much time. The cut-off is entered at Dec. 18. I think that means that as soon at the clock clicks over to Dec. 18 in Greenwich, you will no longer be able to bet. So, for most people, that will happen on Dec. 17 which is what I am writing.

Note: for this bet if you are the FIRST bettor and have never authors post (that is, you aren’t Zeke, SteveF, Me, PaulK etc.), leave a comment saying you are going to bet before you bet. Reason below.

[sockulator(../musings/wp-content/uploads/2011/UAHBets5.php?Metric=UAH TTL?Units=C?cutOffMonth=12?cutOffDay=18?cutOffYear=2011?DateMetric=December, 2011?)sockulator]
Cut-off: Dec 17!

I’ve inserted a security script. I’m whitelisted as are Zeke, SteveF, and a few other authors. But you probably aren’t. So, if you have trouble, post a comment immediately after… Uhh… no. You won’t be able to do that.

Luckily, I’ll know if you have trouble within 2 minutes of the problem occurring. I get emails when the script catches someone. I’m going to sit here for a half hour and watch to see if anyone gets caught. But if, before betting, you leave a comment saying “I’m going to bet”, I’ll know to watch for the email and can deal with things if you get caught. (No long term harm will ensue. But you might see a forbidden page until such time as I take the 2 minute required to fish out of a list. This is all related to the problem that caused me to ban all of Norway a while back.)

32 thoughts on “Bet on December UAH!”

  2. ivp0:Looks like November (0.0C) already did that (+ Durban and Climategate 2). Refer to RSS TLT data (0.033C). My guess its going into serious negative territory December 11′ and next 10 years!

  4. Did you to bet? And not get banned? (I want confirmation. I can see no one got banned, but checking if they bet is more work.)

  5. I successfully placed my bet, I was not banned (as far as I know) and I fully expect to anchor the “bad bet” end of the curve!

    Fairly mild December so far down by me — looks likely to be a brown Christmas.

  7. I don’t seem to have been stopped also. I just repeated my Nov. prediction, since I think it’s a winner 🙂 🙂 🙂

  8. TimW– If you were banned, you’d know! There are two new scripts. One would start by showing you HUGE blinking banner telling you you had been a bad boy. If you keept trying more than 3 times, it would eventually tell you the blog was down for service…. (Which would be a lie.) I didn’t write that one.

    The other one I wrote, and it would send you to a page that told you you had been banned and would suggest filling out a form to get unbanned. I think that form works but should any IT person visit and look at the HTML, they will laugh at it’s ridiculousness. It’s probably easier for a bot to solve than a person to solve!

  9. > It’s probably easier for a bot to solve than a person to solve!

    Heh.

    All your base are belong to us!

  10. feabqtcy–
    Well… it’s like this:
    I found somethign that creates Captcha. So, the math problem is given with the numbers in Captcha. The problem:
    1) People have to read the stupid captcha showing a number. Say it’s 52. The number is there but it has all sorts of crosshairs. That’s a little a little difficult.
    2) Bot’s only have to read the html. If you read the html the call to the captcha showing something like “52” will have whatever.php?a=52 in it. So… it’s obvious that the image is of a 52!

    I have to go in and put some calls that encrypt and decrypt the 52 so the call for the captcha image is

    “whatever.php?a=encrypted_goobledy_gook”. Or do it some other way….

  11. Here is a link to the most current of Dr Spencer’s graphics of the temperature anomaly measured by channel 5 of the AMSU instrument on the AQUA satellite. As Lucia notes, he has only posted the anomaly value through October 2011, at the moment.

    Every month, speculation on the sign and magnitude of this anomaly runs rampant at The Blackboard. More quatloos are wagered at this site than during the running of the Kentucky Derby!

  12. Lucia –

    Can I show (some) of my ignorance by asking if there is a correlation between any of the individual channels from the AMSU and the final anomaly. Is it a mean? Is it just channel five? My algorithm doesn’t take account of such things so it may appear that I am in fact betting ‘blind’ [perish the thought]. Perhaps I’m better off without the extra information, but it would be nice to know!

    [basically, i go to the AMSU discovery page and it doesn’t help me much because I’m not sure exactly what I’m looking for]

  16. OK, I’ll bite..err…bet.
    Haven’t bet before, but there’s a first time for everything (hope I’m following the instructions correctly). 🙂

  18. Anteros–
    Everyone has the same information. The difficulty is that no one has enough complete information and there is a heck of a lot of noise in whatever information we have. Using the force may be as good a method as any.

  23. I entered a bet successfully, Lucia. I did not use the Force in doing so, just to demonstrate that is not needed to get through your script. I hope that it does not prove essential to obtain decent results.

  26. Very slightly O/T but the dismal Nov news is in – I very much failed to win the quatloos – again!! + 0.12……

  30. I am going to place a bet today, mainly as a test and in case I forget tomorrow.
    I will probably place a revised bet tomorrow, if I remember.

  31. Anteros, there is a correlation between AQUA CH5 and the UAH anomaly, it’s just not a very strong correlation.

  32. After taking into consideration Chris Brown’s probable typo, the revised range of bets for November was -0.18c to +0.206c, with a mean of +0.034c and a median of +0.045c, both quite a lot lower than the actually observed figure of +0.123c.
    This month, the range of predictions is between -0.15c and +0.295c, with a mean value of +0.0439c and a median of +0.0185c.
    So, while last month the median was higher than the mean, this month the median is lower. Also, while this month’s mean is higher than last months, this month the median is lower.
    Last month, the mean of the first 50% of the bets was +0.0107c and that of the last 50% was +0.0667c, reflecting the fact that the predictions tended to increase in chronological order. This month, the mean of the first 50% is 0.0512c and that of the last 50% is 0.0366c, so there is a tendency for the predictions to fall as time went on.
    Last month, on November 15th., I predicted that the most likely range for the actual UAH was between +0.09c and +0.21c, which proved to be correct.
    This month, I think that the most likely range will be between
    -0.07c and +0.05c, so again I think that those with bets inside this range stand the best chance of winning.

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