When I announced the results of the UAH betting, someone wondered if I would ever get around to discovering who is furthest ahead or behind. Today, I added a function that let me tally up the sum of bet and sum won for each name/email combination. I didn’t distinguish between types of betting contests, but this is limited to bets since I wrote the script that enters all bets in the database. A superficial check at the data base suggest my script is not screwed up. Assuming it’s ok, the current standings for win/loss on everything sorted by the “net” winnings is provided below:
| Name | Net | = | Total Won | – | Total Bet |
| pdjakow | 151.83 | = | 196.83 | – | 45 |
| KÃ¥re Kristiansen | 115.75 | = | 166.75 | – | 51 |
| Mike P | 84.55 | = | 147.55 | – | 63 |
| Greg Meurer | 77.16 | = | 111.16 | – | 34 |
| Michael Hauber | 73.52 | = | 138.52 | – | 65 |
| Swift | 68.94 | = | 113.94 | – | 45 |
| Don Bishop | 57.78 | = | 100.78 | – | 43 |
| lucia | 52.66 | = | 69.66 | – | 17 |
| Adam | 43.25 | = | 73.25 | – | 30 |
| Robert Leyland | 43.21 | = | 59.21 | – | 16 |
| Kevin Johnstone | 42.35 | = | 49.35 | – | 7 |
| Jon P | 39.25 | = | 49.25 | – | 10 |
| Neven | 37.57 | = | 70.57 | – | 33 |
| George Tobin | 33.4 | = | 37.4 | – | 4 |
| Swift | 32.99 | = | 42.99 | – | 10 |
| jack mosevich | 32.71 | = | 41.71 | – | 9 |
| Ed Seger | 29.57 | = | 61.57 | – | 32 |
| denny | 25.84 | = | 58.84 | – | 33 |
| Chuck L | 25.17 | = | 71.17 | – | 46 |
| Cassanders | 24.84 | = | 43.84 | – | 19 |
| Freezedried | 24.6 | = | 52.6 | – | 28 |
| Jorge | 24.41 | = | 34.41 | – | 10 |
| dorlomin | 24.32 | = | 30.32 | – | 6 |
| Pavel Panenka | 22.79 | = | 65.79 | – | 43 |
| Zeke | 21.99 | = | 31.99 | – | 10 |
| Lord Soth | 21.54 | = | 30.54 | – | 9 |
| Antón | 20.64 | = | 23.64 | – | 3 |
| jack mosevich | 20.58 | = | 22.58 | – | 2 |
| Andrew_KY | 18.49 | = | 23.49 | – | 5 |
| David Gould | 18.16 | = | 35.16 | – | 17 |
| Hal | 16.18 | = | 38.18 | – | 22 |
| Nick Barnes | 15.63 | = | 20.63 | – | 5 |
| John F. Pittman | 15.56 | = | 59.56 | – | 44 |
| DG | 15.4 | = | 21.4 | – | 6 |
| jmcc | 15.38 | = | 23.38 | – | 8 |
| Mark Smith | 14.14 | = | 17.14 | – | 3 |
| DeNihilist | 11.34 | = | 23.34 | – | 12 |
| Tim Walkowski | 10.66 | = | 22.26 | – | 11.6 |
| Lance | 9.96 | = | 13.96 | – | 4 |
| PEHarvey | 9.31 | = | 13.31 | – | 4 |
| Jim Cole | 8.91 | = | 12.91 | – | 4 |
| Marcus | 8.61 | = | 15.61 | – | 7 |
| AMac | 8.55 | = | 22.55 | – | 14 |
| Peter | 8.53 | = | 28.53 | – | 20 |
| BenjaminG | 7.52 | = | 8.52 | – | 1 |
| Douggerel | 6.17 | = | 9.17 | – | 3 |
| Noel | 5.37 | = | 8.37 | – | 3 |
| ChrisinGa | 5.14 | = | 8.14 | – | 3 |
| sd | 4.75 | = | 7.75 | – | 3 |
| Tom W. | 3.84 | = | 11.84 | – | 8 |
| AndyW | 3.84 | = | 5.84 | – | 2 |
| Phil. | 3.78 | = | 27.78 | – | 24 |
| Chuck L | 1.72 | = | 5.72 | – | 4 |
| Pieter | 1.54 | = | 44.54 | – | 43 |
| Peter Thompson | 1.54 | = | 16.54 | – | 15 |
| duwayne | 1.16 | = | 6.16 | – | 5 |
| Francis | 0.71 | = | 2.71 | – | 2 |
| Paul Kreter | 0.65 | = | 10.65 | – | 10 |
| duwayne | -0.45 | = | 0.55 | – | 1 |
| Ryan O | -0.67 | = | 11.33 | – | 12 |
| Martin | -0.97 | = | 0.03 | – | 1 |
| FrancisT | -1 | = | 0 | – | 1 |
| Andy | -1 | = | 0 | – | 1 |
| Cary | -1 | = | 0 | – | 1 |
| ClimateWatcher | -1 | = | 0 | – | 1 |
| Dr Phillip Bratby | -1 | = | 0 | – | 1 |
| Ed Forbes | -1 | = | 0 | – | 1 |
| John M. Whitman | -1 | = | 0 | – | 1 |
| MAX_OK | -1 | = | 0 | – | 1 |
| Mark | -1 | = | 0 | – | 1 |
| PEHarvey | -1 | = | 0 | – | 1 |
| Twawkit | -1 | = | 0 | – | 1 |
| Wayne Arnold | -1 | = | 0 | – | 1 |
| bfcymism | -1 | = | 0 | – | 1 |
| bglnzjx | -1 | = | 0 | – | 1 |
| dwhpxs | -1 | = | 0 | – | 1 |
| feabqtcqy | -1 | = | 0 | – | 1 |
| hmueseayjza | -1 | = | 0 | – | 1 |
| moschops | -1 | = | 0 | – | 1 |
| msqpotset | -1 | = | 0 | – | 1 |
| njcorlrij | -1 | = | 0 | – | 1 |
| redfhncwvx | -1 | = | 0 | – | 1 |
| rihoiqve | -1 | = | 0 | – | 1 |
| spambot | -1 | = | 0 | – | 1 |
| steve | -1 | = | 0 | – | 1 |
| Peter Thompson | -1.11 | = | 1.89 | – | 3 |
| Anton | -1.71 | = | 2.29 | – | 4 |
| Kliegl, Jürgen | -1.99 | = | 0.01 | – | 2 |
| AFPhys | -2 | = | 0 | – | 2 |
| Al Cooper | -2 | = | 0 | – | 2 |
| George B | -2 | = | 0 | – | 2 |
| GrantB | -2 | = | 0 | – | 2 |
| Harry | -2 | = | 0 | – | 2 |
| KW | -2 | = | 0 | – | 2 |
| Larry Goldberg | -2 | = | 0 | – | 2 |
| P Gosselin | -2 | = | 0 | – | 2 |
| Ruth | -2 | = | 0 | – | 2 |
| Tim Cohn | -2 | = | 0 | – | 2 |
| anna v | -2 | = | 0 | – | 2 |
| hmccard | -2 | = | 0 | – | 2 |
| joel | -2 | = | 0 | – | 2 |
| sierra117 | -2 | = | 0 | – | 2 |
| igsy | -2.23 | = | 0.77 | – | 3 |
| Gordon Ford | -2.5 | = | 0 | – | 2.5 |
| Dr. Shooshmon | -2.53 | = | 2.47 | – | 5 |
| lucia | -2.93 | = | 0.07 | – | 3 |
| Tom Vaughn | -3 | = | 0 | – | 3 |
| Arfur Bryant | -3 | = | 0 | – | 3 |
| Arn Riewe | -3 | = | 0 | – | 3 |
| Benjamin Paterson | -3 | = | 0 | – | 3 |
| Blue Sky | -3 | = | 0 | – | 3 |
| Bryan Short | -3 | = | 0 | – | 3 |
| Christoher Polis | -3 | = | 0 | – | 3 |
| DOOM | -3 | = | 0 | – | 3 |
| Dan Conway | -3 | = | 0 | – | 3 |
| Dan Wagner | -3 | = | 0 | – | 3 |
| Dave Dardinger | -3 | = | 0 | – | 3 |
| David Shipley | -3 | = | 0 | – | 3 |
| Freezedried | -3 | = | 0 | – | 3 |
| Gerhardt Sløyvfeidta | -3 | = | 0 | – | 3 |
| Guy Fardell | -3 | = | 0 | – | 3 |
| Ike | -3 | = | 0 | – | 3 |
| Jim T | -3 | = | 0 | – | 3 |
| Jiri | -3 | = | 0 | – | 3 |
| Joe L. | -3 | = | 0 | – | 3 |
| John K | -3 | = | 0 | – | 3 |
| Jorge | -3 | = | 0 | – | 3 |
| Oslo | -3 | = | 0 | – | 3 |
| Owen | -3 | = | 0 | – | 3 |
| PKthinks | -3 | = | 0 | – | 3 |
| Roger Knights | -3 | = | 0 | – | 3 |
| Vinny Burgoo | -3 | = | 0 | – | 3 |
| bob droege | -3 | = | 0 | – | 3 |
| boballab | -3 | = | 0 | – | 3 |
| drgoodbomb | -3 | = | 0 | – | 3 |
| hunter | -3 | = | 0 | – | 3 |
| intrepid_wanders | -3 | = | 0 | – | 3 |
| steve | -3 | = | 0 | – | 3 |
| wyn palmer | -3 | = | 0 | – | 3 |
| Steve hempell | -3.18 | = | 0 | – | 3.19 |
| Test Person | -3.34 | = | 0.66 | – | 4 |
| Annette | -4 | = | 0 | – | 4 |
| D Cain | -4 | = | 0 | – | 4 |
| E Seger | -4 | = | 0 | – | 4 |
| Jan | -4 | = | 0 | – | 4 |
| John A | -4 | = | 0 | – | 4 |
| Kendra | -4 | = | 0 | – | 4 |
| MikeN | -4 | = | 0 | – | 4 |
| Nightvid Cole | -4 | = | 0 | – | 4 |
| Olram | -4 | = | 0 | – | 4 |
| Richard Dupuis | -4 | = | 0 | – | 4 |
| Rogelio | -4 | = | 0 | – | 4 |
| Thomas Sand̩n | -4 | = | 0 | Р| 4 |
| TroubleWithTribbles | -4 | = | 0 | – | 4 |
| Troy_CA | -4 | = | 0 | – | 4 |
| john n | -4 | = | 0 | – | 4 |
| rob r | -4 | = | 0 | – | 4 |
| Anthony Watts | -4.11 | = | 0.89 | – | 5 |
| jack mosevich | -4.42 | = | 25.58 | – | 30 |
| Aslak Grinsted | -4.47 | = | 0.03 | – | 4.5 |
| Robert Leyland | -4.73 | = | 47.27 | – | 52 |
| groundhunter | -4.83 | = | 2.17 | – | 7 |
| Karl Iver Dahl-Madsen | -4.94 | = | 0.06 | – | 5 |
| Anthony Violi | -5 | = | 0 | – | 5 |
| Banjoman0 | -5 | = | 0 | – | 5 |
| BenjaminG | -5 | = | 0 | – | 5 |
| Bill Illis | -5 | = | 0 | – | 5 |
| Brendan Bouffler | -5 | = | 0 | – | 5 |
| David Jay | -5 | = | 0 | – | 5 |
| Duke | -5 | = | 0 | – | 5 |
| Erick WOdarz | -5 | = | 0 | – | 5 |
| Foz | -5 | = | 0 | – | 5 |
| Freddie | -5 | = | 0 | – | 5 |
| Garth Bedard | -5 | = | 0 | – | 5 |
| Iamnothuman so says my wife | -5 | = | 0 | – | 5 |
| J.Mens | -5 | = | 0 | – | 5 |
| JimR | -5 | = | 0 | – | 5 |
| John Egan | -5 | = | 0 | – | 5 |
| Laws of Nature | -5 | = | 0 | – | 5 |
| Leonard Weinstein | -5 | = | 0 | – | 5 |
| NyqOnly | -5 | = | 0 | – | 5 |
| Paul Ostergaard | -5 | = | 0 | – | 5 |
| Petr VojvodÃk | -5 | = | 0 | – | 5 |
| Pino | -5 | = | 0 | – | 5 |
| Rob Waldie | -5 | = | 0 | – | 5 |
| Rob Waldie | -5 | = | 0 | – | 5 |
| Robert | -5 | = | 0 | – | 5 |
| S Basinger | -5 | = | 0 | – | 5 |
| Shooshmon | -5 | = | 0 | – | 5 |
| Squidly | -5 | = | 0 | – | 5 |
| Steve | -5 | = | 0 | – | 5 |
| Vlasta | -5 | = | 0 | – | 5 |
| buck smith | -5 | = | 0 | – | 5 |
| chris y | -5 | = | 0 | – | 5 |
| hswiseman | -5 | = | 0 | – | 5 |
| mb | -5 | = | 0 | – | 5 |
| simon.s | -5 | = | 0 | – | 5 |
| spambot2 | -5 | = | 0 | – | 5 |
| torn8o | -5 | = | 0 | – | 5 |
| Ron Broberg | -5.43 | = | 4.57 | – | 10 |
| Colin Aldridge | -6 | = | 0 | – | 6 |
| Carlo | -6 | = | 0 | – | 6 |
| David L. Hagen | -6 | = | 0 | – | 6 |
| Francis | -6 | = | 0 | – | 6 |
| CoRev | -6.39 | = | 1.61 | – | 8 |
| ErnieP | -7 | = | 0 | – | 7 |
| HaroldW | -7 | = | 0 | – | 7 |
| Richard | -7 | = | 0 | – | 7 |
| matthew | -7 | = | 0 | – | 7 |
| Magnus | -7.15 | = | 8.35 | – | 15.5 |
| Thomas S | -7.18 | = | 0.82 | – | 8 |
| Tom Harrah | -7.48 | = | 7.52 | – | 15 |
| SamuelJ | -7.98 | = | 9.02 | – | 17 |
| LeeW | -8 | = | 0 | – | 8 |
| Andrew_KY | -8 | = | 0 | – | 8 |
| Jarmo | -8 | = | 0 | – | 8 |
| Kelly O’Day | -8 | = | 0 | – | 8 |
| MikeN | -8 | = | 0 | – | 8 |
| Vlasta | -8 | = | 0 | – | 8 |
| climatepatrol | -8 | = | 0 | – | 8 |
| Harry | -8.36 | = | 20.64 | – | 29 |
| Gareth Clements | -9 | = | 0 | – | 9 |
| Paul Ostergaard | -9 | = | 0 | – | 9 |
| Rob R | -9 | = | 0 | – | 9 |
| Todd F | -9 | = | 0 | – | 9 |
| Hoi Polloi | -10 | = | 0 | – | 10 |
| Jimmy Haigh | -10 | = | 0 | – | 10 |
| Tim Medhurst | -10 | = | 0 | – | 10 |
| pete m | -10 | = | 0 | – | 10 |
| Garth Bedard | -10.19 | = | 21.81 | – | 32 |
| DeWitt Payne | -11 | = | 0 | – | 11 |
| David | -11 | = | 0 | – | 11 |
| David Gould | -11.3 | = | 2.7 | – | 14 |
| B Buckner | -11.4 | = | 2.6 | – | 14 |
| WTH | -12 | = | 0 | – | 12 |
| enSKog | -12 | = | 0 | – | 12 |
| Earle Williams | -12.48 | = | 2.52 | – | 15 |
| Hal | -13 | = | 0 | – | 13 |
| Layman Lurker | -13 | = | 0 | – | 13 |
| vg | -13 | = | 0 | – | 13 |
| Troy_CA | -14 | = | 0 | – | 14 |
| denis | -14 | = | 0 | – | 14 |
| hempster | -14.46 | = | 1.54 | – | 16 |
| Jeff Id | -15 | = | 0 | – | 15 |
| MikO | -15 | = | 0 | – | 15 |
| MarcH | -16 | = | 0 | – | 16 |
| edward | -16 | = | 0 | – | 16 |
| YFNWG | -17 | = | 0 | – | 17 |
| Sordnay | -18 | = | 0 | – | 18 |
| Steve Fitzpatrick | -19.17 | = | 0.33 | – | 19.5 |
| Andrew Kennett | -19.89 | = | 5.29 | – | 25.18 |
| Joel | -20.25 | = | 35.75 | – | 56 |
| Paul Demmert | -21 | = | 0 | – | 21 |
| John Norris | -23 | = | 0 | – | 23 |
| ivp0 | -23 | = | 0 | – | 23 |
| Boris | -26.06 | = | 21.84 | – | 47.9 |
| John Knapp | -27 | = | 0 | – | 27 |
| Tepid Avenger | -29.43 | = | 2.57 | – | 32 |
| Tim Walkowski | -30 | = | 0 | – | 30 |
| Zer0th | -32.19 | = | 4.81 | – | 37 |
| Edbhoy | -35.03 | = | 1.97 | – | 37 |
| sHx | -36 | = | 0 | – | 36 |
| Terry | -36.12 | = | 0.02 | – | 36.14 |
| Denis | -39.96 | = | 0.04 | – | 40 |
| Les Johnson | -40 | = | 0 | – | 40 |
| Lucia | -41.34 | = | 3.66 | – | 45 |
| Niels A Nielsen | -44.47 | = | 0.53 | – | 45 |
| Diego Cruz | -45 | = | 0 | – | 45 |
| Lance Appleby | -55.93 | = | 0.07 | – | 56 |
Good going pdjakow!
(Note: bets by Lucia and lucia both appear because I periodically test the script using different email addresses. I guess I could consolidate those 🙂 )
Now, for the questions: Do you guys want to see winnings sorted some other way? I can break out ice bets from UAH etc. It’s just a matter of doing it. I could also delete the bets by adding enabled bots. BTW: I found the bug that was causing the script to display bets that should be replaced. I need to remember to upload the fix before next display, but the error didn’t propagate into the database. It was just a matter of pulling out bets without including “AND Final=1” on display to pull out the last bet instead of earlier bets. Final is a tag in the data base. I use it so to avoid deleting old bets just in case someone screws up on the final bet and would like to revert.
The UAH monthly anomalies using the new 30-year base period are here:
http://www.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/tltglhmam_5.4
1978 12 -0.279 -0.301 -0.257 -0.226 31. -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 42.
1979 1 -0.251 -0.464 -0.039 -0.127 31. -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 73.
1979 2 -0.246 -0.392 -0.099 0.000 28. -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 101.
1979 3 -0.246 -0.333 -0.160 -0.109 31. -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 132.
1979 4 -0.268 -0.378 -0.159 -0.042 30. -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 162.
1979 5 -0.245 -0.378 -0.111 -0.110 31. -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 193.
1979 6 -0.203 -0.255 -0.150 -0.054 30. -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 223.
1979 7 -0.122 -0.007 -0.237 0.002 31. -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 254.
1979 8 -0.232 -0.192 -0.272 -0.022 31. -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 285.
1979 9 -0.100 -0.145 -0.055 0.018 30. -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 315.
BOGUS -99.990’s ARE ARTIFICIALLY COOLING THEIR RECORD! STORY BROKEN BY BORIS PLEASE CITE IN ALL COMMUNICATIONS!
Boris– Funny!
Thanks DonB. I’ll be able to make kewl graphs tomorrow.
If I understand this correctly, everyone is losing… in which case Lucia has a fantastic future in the gaming industry
… never mind, I went back and looked at it again
MikeC pdjakow’s winnings exceed the amount he bet by $Q151.83. (Is $Q the symbol for Quatloo?) Lots of people are in the black. Everyone between pdjakow and Paul Kreter are in the black. Everyone below Paul Kreter are in the red.
There are quite a few ‘bots like bfcymism who are in the red.
Congratulations, all you puny humans who made it into the black.
pdjakow, we consider you to be one of our adding-enabled bretheren (on a purely honorary basis, of course).
Nice 🙂 Unfortunetaly i didn’t know that Spencer will change baseline when i put my december UAH bet.
Hmm, I guess “Joel” would be me, just by the amount betted. And “Harry” is harrywr2…
Are the results for the “2010 annual average UAH”-bet from February 2010 in yet?
As a long time lurker (my first bet was for August 2009) I want to say thanks for this blog.
Joel– I forgot about the annual average bet! I’ll have to post that. I have to think about what to do with the baseline change!
Joel Heinrich (Comment#64863) January 6th, 2011 at 5:09 am
” And “Harry†is harrywr2…”
I’m always harrywr2.
Here is the method I use for my predictions. I pick several years as ‘models’ for the current year based on similar ENSO states. Currently I consider the ENSO state a moderate/strong La Nina, and the comparison years are 1989, 1999, 2000 and 2008. For each year I adjust the temperature to a current value assuming a 0.18 degree/decade warming trend. The January 1989 value for UAH was -0.431, and adding 0.18 * 12 adjusts to -0.035 for 2011. Averaging the value for all 4 comparison years then gives me a prediction:
Jan: -0.045
Feb: 0.093
Mar: 0.084
Apr: 0.164
May: 0.089
Jun: 0.073
July: 0.130
Aug 0.110
Sep 0.237
Oct 0.211
Nov 0.192
Dec 0.205
Having done this since about mid 2009 as we transitioned towards El Nino I have noted that temperatures and ENSO follow a seasonal pattern. Nino 3.4 tends to usually peak in January, and global temperature impact also peaks in January, which is usually the coolest month of a La Nina or warmest month of an El Nino. After this peak the temperature cools from the peak (warms for La Nina) quite slowly, and it is only very late in the year, from about October onwards that temperature starts changing more rapidly towards the next ENSO state.
Hi Lucia.
Somehow I am in the list twice, perhaps one of my alter egos is a better bettor than the other 🙂
cheers,
Robert
Robert– If you entered two emails, or had a typo in an email, the script things you are two different people. This is to distinguish people who might have identical names. (Like, for example “Jon” or “Andrew”.)
Hey, Lucia!
Thought I might leave this Off Topic note here instead of cluttering other threads.
There was a bit of a talk at a Bishop Hill thread about James Hansen and his 1988 predictions: http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2011/1/6/hansens-predictions.html
Are you considering an update any time soon, now that we have 2010 in the books too?
Kind regards
sHx– Seems to me the Hadley, NOAA and GISS results aren’t in yet. Whether or not I discuss Hansen’s 88 projectoins depends on what else comes up in Jan and Feb! 🙂
Lucia, honey, I can wait.
sHx said
following the links……….
So I don’t know why the focus on Hansen. He was a pioneer in research, but the majority of the IPCC don’t agree with his predictions. His logic is that at similar temperatures the sea level will be higher. That is true. But that won’t be happening in a century. The sea level will still be rising, and is rising now.
bugs–
First, I think ‘focus’ is too strong a word. That is– unless you can use the word “focus” to suggest people are simutanously focusing on many, many, many different people or things.
There is attention on Hansen because those are some of the earliest projections and they were very visible. Also, he speaks out publicly and regularly.
Bugs,
The focus is on Hansen because he routinely makes outrageous predictions, which most other people in his filed think are wrong, and gets himself arrested at enviro-wacko ‘protests’. These things will are bound to attract attention.