Betting

Results for August!

18 Comments

Dr. Roy posted the UAH temperatures before Labor Day. I was going to make you all wait until after the holiday to post…. but I have a free moment between the rolling home made fettucine and eating the “dragon turds” Jim just finished grilling. So I’m processing them now.

The August anomaly was 0.325C, down from 0.375 in July. Owing to the state of ENSO, wome of us were expecting a drop. Others not so much. And the one who guessed closest was Pieter who nets 48.518 qualtoos. Bob Koss, in second place netted 44.982 quatloos. Guys: use these wisely this Labor Day! 🙂

Winnings in Quatloos for UAH TTL August, 2011 Predictions.
Rank Name Prediction (C) Bet Won
Gross Net
— Observed 0.325 (C)
1 Pieter 0.321 3 51.518 48.518
2 Bob Koss 0.317 5 44.982 39.982
3 ivp0 0.316 5 0 -5
4 sHx 0.315 5 0 -5
5 Ray 0.337 5 0 -5
6 Robert Leyland 0.34 4 0 -4
7 Lance 0.301 4 0 -4
8 EddieO 0.299 5 0 -5
9 Paul Butler 0.293 5 0 -5
10 MarcH 0.29 5 0 -5
11 Freezedried 0.289 4 0 -4
12 Owen 0.377 4 0 -4
13 Steve T 0.27 4.5 0 -4.5
14 Arfur Bryant 0.267 3 0 -3
15 Tamara 0.39 3 0 -3
16 Don B 0.393 4 0 -4
17 Boris 0.394 5 0 -5
18 pdjakow 0.25 5 0 -5
19 ob 0.4 5 0 -5
20 Martin 0.41 3 0 -3
21 Jon P 0.414 5 0 -5
22 bob droege 0.47 5 0 -5

The net winnings for each member of the ensemble will be added to their accounts.

Everyone: Happy Labor Day. My brother-in-laws have arrived. Time to eat.


18 thoughts on “Results for August!”

  1. Yea! I got lucky.

    Boo! Now I’m confused. Should I feel lucky today, or should I have felt lucky the day I placed my bet?

  2. Happy Labor Day, everyone.

    By my figurin’, the monthly anomaly for this year is 0.271 C warmer than the La Nina year 2008, which is a warming rate of 9.021 C per century. That is surprising to me, since this La Nina was strong enough to induce so many extreme weather events. Maybe the climate folks have underestimated the climate sensitivity of carbon dioxide.

    Oh, wait. The anomaly for this year is also 0.321 C cooler than 2010, which is a cooling rate of 32.113 C per century.

    Never mind.

  5. Lucia in Shock Embezzling Scandal

    July results:
    1 steve T 0.37 4 66.911 62.911

    August Results:
    13 Steve T 0.27 4.5 0 -4.5

    WHO STOLE MY 58.411 QUATLOOS?

  6. WHO STOLE MY 58.411 QUATLOOS?

    The August results are just your August results. But…. are you using different names?

    I can run the script that gets balances for everyone– and look to see if you are using both “steve T” and “Steve T”.

  7. “steve T” and “Steve T” – ’tis possible I got it wrong, I admit.

  8. Rats! Out of the big money by .001C I guess I will have to re-tune my WAG prediction model for Sept.

  9. August in the UK has been shitty – cool (below 20C) and wet, but the reports from the USA were of heatwaves in some states. The Chief Hydrologist might be on the right track Cooling is happening.

  11. Nick, I think my conclusions would be that global averages don’t tell you very much and that the seasons in the UK seem to have time-shifted, so that Summer took place in April and we are now getting to the end of Autumn instead of just starting it.

  12. I think Lucia should let me do a guest post this week to help revive The Blackboard from the coma it’s evidently in. 😉

    Andrew

  13. diogenes,
    I think it may be a bit of an exaggeration to say that seasons in the UK have time-shifted and that summer took place in April.
    Yes, this spring was warmer than average, but not warmer than summer. The April mean CET was 11.8c but June to August have been 13.8c, 15.2c and 15.4c. The mean CET for MAM was 10.2c against a median of 8.2c for the entire series. The mean CET for JJA was 14.8c against a median of 15.3c. The difference between the mean summer and spring CET figures was 4.6c, compared to a median difference of 7.1c. None of these figures is unprecedented. The mean MAM CET was also 10.2c in 1893, the lowest mean JJA CET was 13.1c in 1725 and there have been many lower summer mean CET figures. The lowest difference between mean summer and spring temperatures was 4.5c in 1841.
    The 10 year mean difference between summer and spring was 6.58c this year, and similar figures existed in the early 1900’s and 1800’s.
    What is true is that recently, spring CE temperatures have risen, while summer temperatures have declined, but I believe that this is within normal variability, within a slightly upward overall trend.
    Of course, you would have to look at other metrics in order to determine any change in the relationship between the seasons, but I don’t think that based on CET alone, we can form any definite conclusion.

  14. Where is the post on realclimate and other team members sabotaging the peer review process?

  15. Ray – good comment…but there is a post on WUWT about how English temperatures have done a hockey-stick in relation to CET.

    Having thought about things for a few hours, I guess my concern is about the context in which figures are released. I come from an economics background. So each month there is a press release about the retail price index. But no one is stupid enough, i think, to say that a 2% increase in RPI means that my grocery bill has risen 2%. Everyone’s experience of inflation will be different depending on what you buy and what you choose not to buy because the price has risen.

    But also, every month, a plethora of other (more or less quality-controlled) figures are released – industrial output, employment levels, imports and exports, inventory levels, order books, etc etc – so any reasonably informed watcher can make up his own mind as to what is going on, regardless of what the talking heads say. And this happens for most industrial nations.

    In this world of climate, we get a set of anomalies, presented without context or nuance. You have to dig to find records of tmin and tmax, CO2 levels, cloud-cover. You have to dig to get details at a regional level. But if the average temperature is rising because tmin is rising and tmax is falling then that should be part of the picture provided.

    I do not think I have ever heard anyone say that world output has increased 4% in July. If they did, they would be greeted with a yawn oif indifference.

    And now I wait to be branded as a concern troll. Or at least, the usual babble of insults about economics.

  16. diogenes,
    I think I have seen the post on WUWT which you mention, but I believe it relates to a divergence in the relative anomalies of CET and the UK data series for England, which I think exaggerates the divergence. In fact, both CET and (for example) the Midlands temperatures have both generally risen since 1910, (and fallen since 2006), but CET has risen less quickly than the UK dataset.
    I think this is possibly something to do with changes in measuring stations rather than actual temperatures.

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