Bet on July UAH! You know the drill.
[sockulator(../musings/wp-content/uploads/2011/UAHBets5.php?Metric=UAH TTL?Units=C?cutOffMonth=7?cutOffDay=16?cutOffYear=2012?DateMetric=July, 2012?)sockulator]
Cut off date: July 15!
8 thoughts on “Bet on July UAH!!”
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July is gearing up to be quite the fall in the anomaly, according to all indexes, versus June. By how much is an open question, or if it’ll flip during the second half; but I think it’ll hold steady beneath June from the way things are currently looking.
The flattening over the second half of June and beginning of July appears to be related to a dip in solar irradiance. It seems unlikely that tsi will persist at this low level for the remainder of the month so I expect some movement upwards but how much? I doubt we’ll see an increase on last month’s 0.37, but I’ll wait for today’s AQUA reading to come through – see if there’s another uptick to add to the small one yesterday – and then register a WAG.
Anteros has armed me with the secrets of his idiot-proof algorithm so I should be a winner this month. 🙂
Aquanometer says if the last recorded day’s temps (7/8) remain steady (!) then we should be +0.18.
Speaking of correlations, the 2012 Aqua Ch5 data has an unbelievable correlation with the 2011 data since about Mar. 1 at lag -7 days (Pearson correlation coefficient = 0.994). So now I will be placing my bets for the rest of the year!
@BillC
That is a kinda hilarious occurrence. Looks like its broken down now though, but be fun to see how using that as a (rough) guide affects a prediction success rate!
An analysis of this months betting:
MAX 0.515
MIN 0.104
MEAN 0.322
MEDIAN 0.332
STD DEV 0.078
MEAN 1-22 0.314
MEAN 23-44 0.330
MEAN PLUS 1 SD 0.399
MEAN MINUS 1 SD 0.244
WITHIN +/- 1 SD (%) 68.18
ABOVE MEAN 26
BELOW MEAN 18
I have added the % of bets which were within +/- 1 SD and the number above and below the mean.
There is a much lower SD this month than in previous months, possibly indicating a more consistent methodology?
Incidentally, the equivalent figures for June were:
WITHIN +/- 1 SD (%) 80.56
ABOVE MEAN 22
BELOW MEAN 14
As it turned out, only 10 of the bets were above the actual UAH figure and 26 were below.
For what it’s worth, the cumulative AQUA CH4 temp. is currently (July 22nd), running slightly below those of 2005 and 2009, which produced UAH anomalies of 0.27c and 0.36c respectively. 2009 started below 2005 but ended up being higher.
After starting the month above both of those years, 2012 fell below 2005 on July 5th and 2009 around July 20th, when all three were approximately the same.
The current trajectory for 2012 would suggest it could end up below 2005 but anything could happen in the mean time.
However, the collective prediction isn’t looking too bad at the moment.