Patrick Cyclone posted this:
I’d rather submit my prediction for low summertime Northern Arctic Ice extent and mass……. Any Bets it will be lower than 2007?
Well…. he missed the opportunity to bet on September ice back in bet. My bet was swagged and was for the ice to be a little higher than 2007 but lower than 2011. Today, I’m going to let people enter late bets. Before betting you can review your previous bet here.
I’m going to have to rerun my script. I’m sure I’ll be revising downward. (BTW: I’m going to experiment with ads in betting posts. I’m wondering what’s going to show? It takes a little while for Google to visit, so you may have to scroll past a big blank box for a while!)
[sockulator(../musings/wp-content/plugins/BettingScripts/UAHBets5.php?Metric=NSIDC September- average NH Ice Extent?Units=millions km^2?cutOffMonth=8?cutOffDay=23?cutOffYear=2012?DateMetric=Bet Placed in June, 2012?)sockulator]
Cutoff August 22.
For reference, the SEARCH September Sea Ice Outlook as of July 11, 2012:
Amac–
That’s interesting! I will need to crack out my ice-predictomer. I haven’t updated it– been busy. I’m waiting to see what Patrick Cyclone bets. 🙂
I see ads!
Me too! I’m seeing “Latest Myth’s debunked” from the US chamber of commerce.
I was wondering if I’d see ads for betting, climate change or something totally irrelevant. (I think I need a wider box. That ad is obnoxious, but I’m sure I can find something even more obnoxious. No blinking so far….)
Re: lucia (Comment #101127)
You probably had a different blinking in mind, but I’m seeing an ad that involves Stevie Nicks and an owl, and the owl is blinking…
I just got “debunked” too. The earlier one was saving on my energy bills, I think. That’s a lot of what I see at CA.
Interesting. Google supposedly tries to target people to lure them into clicking on the ads. Do you like Stevie Nicks? Or owls?
I think they should show us some images of ice caps.
I know next to nothing about Stevie Nicks. I do like owls, but I don’t see how google could know that!
I’m not seeing that ad on this computer, though–it’s the US Chamber of Commerce instead.
I´m seeing an add in Danish for a broad band connection – rather irrelevant.
Maybe Google is hinting you should move to Denmark 😀
I adjusted my bet way down (thanks for the second chance). The storm that Neven has been following has had a spectacular effect on the IJIS JAXA extent. About 10% of the ice extent has been lost in the last three days. If that keeps up, we’ll run out of ice early September.
Ged, that is actually the relevant element in the ad since I’m Danish and living in Denmark. Nothing to do with iceor betting, though.
Nick, I’m thinking that some of that “loss” may be compaction of ice. We’ll see what happens to ice levels when the storm is over. Unlike 2007, it doesn’t seem to be transporting ice out of the Arctic Basin.
Oddly, if it’s a compaction even, once the ice gets “stretched out”, you might end up with less ice loss than you would have without the storm (more isolation when the ice extent is reduced of course for the same volume of ice, but this assumes no Eckman transport of ice to warmer climes).
Still I’ve revised my number down, since I was given the opportunity.
im still in at 4.3. revising downward. if we get a dipole fugggitaboutit.
nevens spot has been a daily reading zone.
2.55 million km^2 for me…
Re: Carrick (Aug 8 15:34),
If it were compaction, the concentration would be going up. It’s not. It’s at an all time low for the date. More likely, most of the ice is still there, but it’s been dispersed to below the 15% level required to be included in the count. The other possibility is that with the storm, there’s more water on the ice surface and passive satellite sensing does a lousy job of discriminating between water on the ice surface and open water. The difference between JAXA and MASIE continues to increase. It’s up to nearly 0.5 mM² today. Perhaps the storm clouds are biasing MASIE high, or perhaps it’s the other way around. We won’t know until the skies clear some. OTOH, the month to date August average (JAXA) is right on the linear trend line. If all the ice in the Chukchi sea melts, we’ll see new record lows. If it doesn’t, we probably won’t. Last year, I thought we’d get more melting in that area, but it didn’t happen and the ice area was only slightly below 2007 and the extent wasn’t. The sun is already going below the horizon at the higher latitudes in the Arctic for part of the day. That’s why melting slows about now.
Storms don’t generally last forever. But it could be dramatic.
For betting we obviously don’t want to lose all the ice before the bets close!
Carrick–
To be clear: We will have “early” winners and “late” winners. There are two contests. The early one closed.
Re: cyclonebuster (Aug 8 16:28),
2.5 mM² would be a reasonable bet for the ice area. It’s way too low for the ice extent even worst case. Ice extent in the Central Arctic alone is unlikely to go that low.
To revise my comment above, it should be the East Siberian Sea, not the Chukchi. But the Chukchi is still well above 2011 levels and the East Siberian Sea is only slightly below.
lucia, cool! Twice as much fun!
DeWitt:
I’m not sure the two are entirely exclusive, but still a good point. As you said, we’ll have to wait until the skies clear to get a better idea of what is going on.
DeWitt:
I’m not sure the two are entirely exclusive, but still a good point. As you said, we’ll have to wait until the skies clear to get a better idea of what is going on.
Can I be paid in Beer if I win instead of Quatloos?
cyclone–
The bets are in Quatloos. If you prefer beer, wine or other beverages, you’ll have to find someone to trade you Quatloos for beer.
Now who in their right mind is going to do something like that?
Mosher. Of course.
I think the latest numbers from the Triskelion Zymurgical Exchange had 1 quatloo trading for 2.738 Arrogant Bastard Ales.
I’m getting an ad for Punting Tips. Presumably of a betting variety rather than the aquatic transport kind,
I saw one for “watch live horseracing”. But it changed after I logged in.
“There are two contests. The early one closed.”
But I thought this was just a re-bet situation – I don’t know if I’ve got enough Quatloos to cover both!
“Obama won’t defend the unborn. Will you?”
Priceless. I guess Google never got the message about how climate “skeptics” are just apolitical crusaders for scientific integrity . . .
😉
Robert–
Maybe google presented it to you based on their profile for your visits. 🙂
FWIW: I think abortion is a sad thing, but I prefer it legal.
My ad is for laundry detergent. I have no idea why.
“abortion is a sad thing, but I prefer it legal”
It’s a sad thing that the life of an innocent baby can be extinguished according to personal preferences.
Andrew
“It’s a sad thing that the life of an innocent baby can be extinguished according to personal preferences.”
. . . and there’s your problem. 🙂
Fortunately, in the US (and I suspect most of the world) infanticide is illegal.
But I think we’ve gone too far off topic. It was one thing to discuss which ads we saw and another to get into a political debate. So… this topic is officially declared OT. If you want to pursue it further– find a forum devoted to it.
Seeing ads for The Australian Newspaper, reading from Oz.
Ad: Buy 2 tires, get 2 free
Well I put my second bet in, and then it hit me. The house must be skimming Quatloos. The more times we get to bet, the more Quatloos the house skims off of us!
I’ve been wondering what y’all been talking about, then remembered that I use Adblock Plus – I’ve got so used to it flawlessly filtering out stuff that it’s a real surprise when ads do appear.
I get Questrade Ads. A different sort of betting maybe.
steveta_uk–
Many people use ad filters. I don’t, but I can’t say I blame them. I mostly avoid sites that show way tooooo many ads. In fact, seeing way toooooo many ads is a good way to guest-i-mate if a site is spammy! 🙂
But when there aren’t too many ads, I don’t mind them so much. Sometimes, I’m even interested in the ad and I do click!! (Not often though.)
I’m getting olympics ads…
I”m thinking I should move them just above comments so we can see them before and after we comment. An open thread on ads might be fun. (Of course, these seems to be practically an open thread on ads.)
Looks like I may have underestimated the extent……….
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.area.arctic.png
@Carrick (Comment #101172)
August 8th, 2012 at 7:10 pm
Like joining Nero for a beer on the balcony while Rome burns.
The long term thick ice is negligable now. That storm was one that previously would have just blown over all the long term ice. There is pretty well only the yearly variable ice left now.