Betting

Place your bets on November UAH!

9 Comments

Better late than never: Time to bet on November’s UAH:

[sockulator(../musings/wp-content/plugins/BettingScripts/UAHBets5.php?Metric=UAH TTL?Units=C?cutOffMonth=11?cutOffDay=21?cutOffYear=2012?DateMetric=November, 2012?)sockulator]
Bets Close 11/20/2012

You know the drill. If you don’t know, ask!

9 thoughts on “Place your bets on November UAH!”

  4. Wait, UAH? Please remove my bet! Not interested….

    Heh. Plus, since they use different baselines, it would be totally wrong! I’ll remove. It’s too bad some people won’t bet on GISS and others won’t bet on UAH. (I appreciate the pov’s. But… oh well…)

  5. Arrgh, I get perennially confused on the tangled history of UAH. In case anyone else does too, here are a couple of possibly helpful resources.

    For a straight search of the string “UAH” at The Blackboard with ~600 results, enter this into Google’s search box:
    site:http://rankexploits.com/musings UAH
    Lucia often has relevant discussions of adjustments and the like.

    Roy Spencer’s 11/5/12 blog post, listing the UAH v5.5 global anomalies for January through October 2012.

    If you decide to enter Lucia’s contest, remember: bet either really high or really low (more quatloos for me! 😉 ).

  6. Followup on AMac’s note. If you work with more years of data, the file — tltglhmam_5.5

    in the directory:

    http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/

    appears to be consistent with the numbers in the 5 Nov Spencer blog linked by AMac just above. It covers Dec 1978 thru Oct 2012.

    A cut and paste of the following allowed me to download the file directly.http:

    //vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/tltglhmam_5.5

    (Yeah, I know, this seems obvious, just wanted to be explicit because it has been a chase thru all the numbers. HTH)

    Note this is the 13-14th file in the directory. At the very end there is a bigger file uahncdc. The ‘uahncdc.lt’ file at the bottom of the directory listing has slightly different numbers.

    Divergences between versions–particularly in recent times gives one things to think about. What fun.

  8. My analysis of this months betting:
    NO. OF BETS 32
    MAX 0.74
    MIN 0.11
    MEAN 0.333
    MEDIAN 0.312
    STD DEV 0.128
    MEAN 1-16 0.357
    MEAN 17-32 0.309
    MEAN PLUS 1 SD 0.461
    MEAN MINUS 1 SD 0.205
    WITHIN +/- 1 SD (%) 75.00
    ABOVE MEAN 14
    BELOW MEAN 18
    The overall mean suggests very little change compared with October.

  9. MEAN 0.333

    Well, I would have gone for 0.33 also if I had got around to it. (Keep meaning to bet but have been deterred by my level of ignorance.)

    0.33 because it was October’s value. And the best guess of tomorrow’s weather is today’s weather. Bit of a boring choice though…

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