Roy announced the September UAH: 0.338C. That;s the number we’ll use for the Quatloos. Falcon and redc tied for first place– and managed to empty the pot between them!
No graphs today because a) I’ve been running monte-carlo and the Macintosh feels tired 🙂 b) I’m on my way out to dinner and c) I’m not sure whether the current number will stick through the week.
I think we’ll bet on GISTemp for November and then switch back when I feel confident the announcement for October won’t be “?.?C”.
You can see how everyone else did below:
| Rank | Name | Prediction (C) | Bet | Won | |
| Gross | Net | ||||
| — | Observed | +0.334 (C) | |||
| 1 | Falcon | 0.34 | 5 | 87.782 | 82.782 |
| 2 | redc | 0.34 | 5 | 55.718 | 50.718 |
| 3 | mwgrant | 0.323 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 4 | BenjaminG | 0.32 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 5 | LeoG | 0.35 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 6 | BobKoss | 0.35 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 7 | DavidE. | 0.355 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 8 | Pdm | 0.311 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 9 | JohnF.Pittman | 0.36 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 10 | RobB | 0.368 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 11 | SteveT | 0.37 | 4.5 | 0 | -4.5 |
| 12 | ArfurBryant | 0.37 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 13 | Lance | 0.295 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 14 | DudleyRobertson | 0.38 | 2 | 0 | -2 |
| 15 | Pieter | 0.382 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 16 | Skeptikal | 0.28 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 17 | Ben | 0.28 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 18 | MikeP | 0.39 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 19 | Genghis | 0.271 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 20 | Jknapp | 0.26 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 21 | PaulSk | 0.41 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 22 | LesJohnson | 0.25 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 23 | denny | 0.235 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 24 | TerryMN | 0.23 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 25 | Tamara | 0.22 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 26 | Ray | 0.45 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 27 | Freezedried | 0.21 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 28 | PaulButler | 0.46 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 29 | MarcH | 0.123 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 30 | JohnNorris | 0.11 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 31 | Hal | 0.03 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 32 | RoberttLeyland | 0 | 4 | 0 | -4 |
7 thoughts on “September UAH! 0.338C!”
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If GISS is the basis, then I’ll pass.
“Observed” anomaly was 0.338, not 0.334.
If you’re going to switch back to UAH in a month or two, why not just email Roy and ask him if he intends to post an anomaly for October using his temporary v5.5? If he intends to post an anomaly, it might be better to just stay with UAH.
You could also ask him if he intends on posting 3 significant digits or only 2. This changing between 2 and 3 digits is getting a bit confusing for our betting.
I don’t wish to appear to appear to be a “sore loser”, but clearly the September betting has been invalidated by the retrospective adjustment of previous figures. In “soccer” parlance, this would be described as “moving the goal posts”. Since the August anomaly was reduced by 0.132c, it would be interesting to see the effect of reducing all bet values by that figure.
Retrospectively, those of us who bet higher this month are made to look a bit stupid.
I agree with MikeP, I would be against the use of GISS because of the low temporal stability.
My choice, if we can’t stick with UAH, would be to use RSS, which has high temporal stability, unless there is any reason to think that future publication will be delayed.
I could be wrong, but it seems to me the “temporal stability” of the UAH numbers has been far worse than GISS the last couple of years. My recollection is GISS temps tend to change by 0.01 or 0.02 degrees, but rarely more than that. In going from 5.4 to 5.5 Roy just changed a couple of years worth of numbers by 5-10 times as much. And the 5.3 version also involved several years worth of changes on the same order. The idea that UAH numbers are more stable than other analyses is a huge myth.
Arthur–
For betting the fact that the temperature change later doesn’t bother me. The bets are predictions of values when first posted. That holds for UAH and GISS. With respect to betting stability has never been an important criterion to me. Promptness was. Because Roy blogs UAH tended to report before RSS– though sometimes RSS reports first.
The other thing that was nice about UAH (for betting) was the 3 significant figures. Even if one shouldn’t take the final digit seriously, it’s presence reduced the number of absolute ties which is nice when betting.
But at least for this month, I’m pretty uncertainty about what UAH will do. RSS isn’t as talkative as Roy so I don’t know the extent to which delays might affect it too– and people have observed some delays recently. So, this does make me lean toward GISS because I know Hadley has tended to report late in the past months. I’m not sure when NCDC reports– they report on a ftp site and I can’t set “changelog” to watch those. (I suppose I could write my won script and use a chronjob to check ever day. But… what a nuisance!)
I know some of the bettors really, really hate GISS… but the others hate UAH. But really, this is betting!
I have noticed that GISS updates their “figure c” page before the ‘official’ page, so if the Oct. bets use GISS, I need to put a monitor on that figure.
I think I agree with Ray, with the pending/past adjustments and the different versions it’s become silly. If I bet on temps again I might just use the result of a Rnd() function and see how that goes.