politics

Wisconsin: The recall race is tight.

119 Comments

If I were in Wisconsin, I’d have already cast my vote. The race is too tight to skip voting and just hope enough people who agree with me will get themselves to the polls.

Since I’m 50-60 miles south of their border, I’m going to buy cheese to eat while watching news reports tonight instead.

If the vote goes the way Jim and I hope, we’ll be popping some champagne. (I know beer is more “Wisconsin”, but it’s still going to be champagne.) What brand would you guys recommend for this potentially auspicious occasion?

119 thoughts on “Wisconsin: The recall race is tight.”

  1. Well, if the result is that the unions get their hands around the throats of the taxpayers of Wisc. again, I suggest you have something stinky, like limburger.

  2. Don Monfort (Comment #97199)
    June 5th, 2012 at 8:28 am

    “Well, if the result is that the unions get their hands around the throats of the taxpayers of Wisc. again, I suggest you have something stinky, like limburger.”

    Because the taxpayers will do so much better when the state government is in the hands of the Koch brothers and like minded folks?
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickungar/2011/02/22/a-secret-deal-between-gov-walker-and-koch-brothers-buried-in-state-budget/

  3. Ike did you read all the way to the end of the link you posted?

    “UPDATE: In response to suggestions that there is a plan afoot for Koch Industries to acquire the Wisconsin public utilities assets, the company, through its spokesman Phillip Ellender, has issued the following statement:

    We have no interest in purchasing any of the state-owned power plants in Wisconsin and any allegations to the contrary are completely false. This is a dispute between public-sector unions and democratically elected officials over how best to serve the public interest. Unfortunately, there are those who would prefer to portray it as something else entirely.
    Via Milwaukee Wisconsin Journal Sentinel”

    It is purely speculative and the legislature passed that language the Gov. did not wirte it.

  4. Don–
    I was planning to go to the grocery store and buy an assortment of cheeses made in Wisconsin. Though there is plenty of variety, I don’t think the local grocery store carries limberger. That would require driving to a fancier store.

    I think I’ll get something to melt on burgers, an eating cheese and a nice bakery bread.

    The polls tend to favor Walker. But it’s close so we really don’t know.

  5. Close? It’ll be closer to a 10 point blowout, which means I predict the winner will be by around 5 points.
    ================================

  6. lucia, have you watched the parade of big-time Democrats careering through Wisconsin, hoping to gain a little luster from the victory?
    ====================

  7. kim–
    The margin I (and many) call close before polls open and what’s called close after the ballots differ. The more neutral polls are say Walker has a 5-6% margin in polls. Based on that we can say he seems to be favored, but it’s not wide enough to be a safe race. Depending on turn out percentages, Barrett could win. If I were in Wisconsin, I would have gotten my rear end to the polling place early.

    Evidently, lines are long in Milwaukee.

  8. Kim

    lucia, …. from the victory?

    Please try to make whatever point you are trying to make directly instead of by asking a question. You know the rule.

  10. I see a block of Swiss and The Squid has tentacles coming through some of the holes. 😉

    Andrew

  12. Am I allowed to still call myself a liberal if I think public sector unions are a bad idea in most cases? I do, and I do….

  14. lucia:

    Lines are long in Milwaukee because voting stations bog down when people vote more than once. I expect turnout in Milwaukee and Madison to be around 105 to 150%.

  16. Ike (Comment #97200),

    You’re right, Koch doesn’t want to buy those plants. They want that no-bid contract to operate them, which the law now allows.

  18. Billc (Comment #97210)
    “Am I allowed to still call myself a liberal if I think public sector unions are a bad idea in most cases?”
    I suspect that description would be rejected by most who consider themselves liberals or progressives.
    The problem with public sector unions is that the employees are numerous enough to politically pressure the politicians into agreeing to outrageous wages and benefits. In my town we have firemen who work 3 days a week (getting paid while sleeping two nights in the firehouse) who make about $100K. And doubly retired government workers (retired from one job, then work another 10 years in a different job and “retire” a second time) receiving retirement benefits greater than any salary they earned while working. It is not a good situation for the taxpayer.

  19. There is one powerful predictor; Presidents coming up for reelection hang around winners and shy away from losers. Presidents also have asymmetric information from internal party polls and grass roots reports.
    Obama has not tied himself in anyway, shape or form to Wisconsin. Indeed, he has said very little about Wisconsin and has not visited in the lead up to today’s vote.
    My guess is that Obama’s advisers think this is going to go very badly for them, expect them to spin the ‘fact’ that the Wisconsin vote is entirely local.

  22. I was never a fan of the ability for someone to draw a government pension while working as a consultant for the same agency they retired from, or for a different government agency in the same line of work! In consulting on public works projects I worked for many project managers both on the private and public sides who fit that bill. It seemed to me the pensions should be at the least, deferred.

    More conceptually, I feel like unions should be reserved for workers who have a large potential to be exploited as a class. (That’s the progressive in me). However I have NO idea how you do this.

  23. And I should add that for most government employees I don’t see that potential to be exploited, nor with most workers anywhere whose job does not involve physical labor. Government workers in very dangerous lines of work, like firefighters and police, I am ambivalent. There are probably military folks reading this including our host (?), maybe they can shed some light on the differences, actual and conceptual, between military & firefighters and the like. Obviously there are huge differences, I am more interested in the not-so-obvious differences.

  24. Billc–
    I’m not military.

    MADISON, Wis. (AP) – Republican Gov. Scott Walker wants to make sure just about everyone who works for the government can’t negotiate their working conditions – except for local police, firefighters and state troopers.

    Walker has introduced a bill that would strip public employees across the board – from teachers to snowplow drivers – of their right to collectively bargain for sick leave, vacation, even the hours they work. But absolutely nothing would change for local police, fire departments and the State Patrol.

    http://www.thenorthwestern.com/article/20110214/OSH0101/110214045/Exemptions-police-fire-fighters-Walker-budget-bill-sparks-questions-political-payback

    I’m pretty sure this Wisconsin law doesn’t affect the the US military pensions.

  25. More heh. Check out Schuchman on Warren. Is that froth or wroth, moshe?
    ================

  27. I may be wrong but I also belive it does not effect Collective Bargaining for wages either its is only the negotiation of benefits that is being removed.

  28. I’m not sure my information on police and fire fighters is current– I found other articles that suggest some changes apply to them too. I’ll have to look a bit more.

  30. Lucia – sorry, I thought I had seen something before about you and the military. Apologies!

    As far as the Wisconsin law affecting military pay etc. (I am not sure if that was sarcastic, because I really have no idea what state influence on things like National Guard etc. amounts to) I didn’t expect that it would, I just wonder what the differences in pay, pensions etc are between military vs local firefighters, police etc – realizing that there are huge variations in each of those categories anyway, and that the local control of police, firefighters etc. leads to huge local/regional variations.

    I am not surprised that the Wisconsin law may, or may at one time have, excluded police and firefighters.

    I recall vaguely disliking some of Walker’s public statements on the subject, and I rather suspect I wouldn’t care much for him personally (and Blago too), but in the very general I don’t think the law is a bad concept.

  32. Reading further, police and firefighters medical benefits were affected, but otherwise, no.

    I wasn’t trying to be sarcastic. Unless I look at the IP address or am very familiar with a commenter I don’t know if they are in the US or somewhere else. Some people in other countries aren’t familiar with how things work here. That WI laws aren’t going to affect military benefits would be obvious to Americans but might not be to others.

    Depending on the community, some places in the US have volunteer firefighters. So, that varies a lot. Also, depending on the situation some public employees bargain and have benefits paid by local districts– so closer to a county or school district level. Some do things at the state level. So that can affect how bargaining plays out. Even in a particular state, things might differ for policemen and firefighters vs. teachers vs. those working in the secretary of states office issuing drivers licenses and so on. So unless you know quite a few details how things are done in a state, it can be difficult to judge specifics.

  34. Ben (Comment #97201)
    June 5th, 2012 at 8:48 am

    “Ike did you read all the way to the end of the link you posted?”

    “We have no interest in purchasing any of the state-owned power plants in Wisconsin and any allegations to the contrary are completely false. This is a dispute between public-sector unions and democratically elected officials over how best to serve the public interest. Unfortunately, there are those who would prefer to portray it as something else entirely.”

    Well, if Koch Industries denies any interest in Wisconsin utilities, that settles that, eh?

  35. Ike,
    It really takes a feeble mind to rely on lying about people like the Koch brothers-as-boogeymen. Even if the Koch brothers were to make investments in Wisconsin, what would tha have to do with unions buying democrat legislators to force tax payers to pay for unreasonably high benefits?

  36. Ike– If the article you reports the idea they might be interested is nothing more than an unsubstantiated rumor with no evidence to support it, and, after the rumor is published, Koch denies the rumor, I should think there is little reason to believe the rumor is true.

  37. Lucia,
    The whole discussion reminded me of a summer job some 40 years ago as a bartender in a dive that was literally on the wrong side of the tracks. If I was asked for wine (rare actually) I would ask white or red. That meant T Bird for white and MD 20/20 for red. We also carried Wild Irish Rose, but it was rarely asked for since it didn’t come in half pints and was maybe a few cents more expensive per ounce. Ripple was too up scale for this place to carry. I can’t even remember the names of the bar liquors, but we carried Dewar’s, but only because the owner drank that.
    Greg

  39. lucia (Comment #97235)
    June 5th, 2012 at 12:10 pm

    “Ike– If the article you reports the idea they might be interested is nothing more than an unsubstantiated rumor with no evidence to support it, and, after the rumor is published, Koch denies the rumor, I should think there is little reason to believe the rumor is true”

    Agreed.

    hunter (Comment #97234) “Ike,
    It really takes a feeble mind to rely on lying about people like the Koch brothers-as-boogeymen. ”

    I posted a column from Forbes, hardly a leftist rag. It really takes a feeble mind to suggest that the Koch brother spend millions on political action without regard to their own personal interests, which aren’t likely aligned with most taxpayers in Wisconsin.

  40. hunter, let me help you with that.

    It’s OK when George Soros spends 500 million annually (9 digits) on influencing US policy because he’s a socialist and therefore “pure of heart”. It’s not OK when the Koch brothers spending 8 million on influencing US policy because they’re capitalists and therefore dirty b*stards. M’Kay? [*]

    Glad we got that straight.

    [*] Most recent numbers I could find.

  41. I would ask white or red. That meant T Bird for white and MD 20/20 for red.

    Ahh! I didn’t know there were nuances in the fortified wine category. I prefer red. So I guess I go “mad dog”. Is Ripple pink?

    On the cheese front, I bought “chevre” and “brie” both made in Wisconsin. I bought Italian sausage to grill. We’ll also be eating coleslaw and maybe broccolli.

    I’m waiting to read more before I decide on whether we get champagne (celebration) or something like MD 20/20 (drink our disappointment away.) The trouble is, I don’t even know where to buy MD 20/20, Thunderbird or Ripple.

  43. Ike, last year, the Koch Brothers spent 8 million, George Soros spent 500 million.

    Sounds like the Koch Brothers are miserly right-wingers to me. 😉

  44. I don’t know if anybody else follows this site, but I like real clear politics because they track numbers over time and average together the different polls.

    (If you don’t follow these, you should ignore RV and AV polls, they are basically meaningless as predictors of the outcome because they aren’t adjusting for the demographics of the voting populace).

  45. Lucia:
    Champagne? Veuve Clicquot without question. Extra dry. But that is very expensive. An excellent and inexpensive substitute is Prosecco – the drier the better.

  46. Has to be Moët & Chandon NV (Dom Perignon if you run to it, Cava if Moët NV breaks the bank).

  47. French inheritance laws are improving US wines to the point where cheap American wines are better than most ‘cheap’ European ones.
    In France the first born son gets the vineyard. So lots of second and third born sons who are in the industry have no land, and a vineyard in a good French region is very expensive.
    Lots of them went to the US and bought dirt cheap land, then used American modern techniques to deliver bulk.
    I have not had a drink in six years, but my French wife is getting more and more impressed with the quality of the bargain level, $7-12 per bottle, wines.

  49. An excellent and inexpensive substitute is Prosecco – the drier the better.

    Yes. Dry prosecco at about $12 – $15 (Massachusetts prices) is as good IMHO as any Champagne under $50.
    I don’t know or much care what side you are supporting, but a celebration is a celebration.

    Street wine would be a bad choice for a disappointment drink. The hangover just makes waking up the next day that much worse. Depending on whether you prefer red or white, a Cono Sur (Chile, Argentina e.g.) malbec or a Marlborough sauvignon blanc from New Zealand are nice and reasonably priced wines.

    Maybe we should have a Recall Drinking Game…

  50. DocMartyn– I’m pretty sure TBird and MD20/20 are very, very bad. If any French wines are as bad as these, they aren’t worth the cost of shipping.

    The difficulty is stocking up. The polls close late so we might not know what we need to buy until late. And… I don’t want to drink toooo late in the evening.

    There appear to be some “shenanigans” going on — robo calls. Shenanigans on this level are not uncommon. We don’t yet know who is responsible. Could be:
    Walker Camp (official).
    Barrett Camp (official).
    Walker supporters (not under control of ‘camp’).
    Barrett Supporters (not under control of ‘camp’).

    If it’s the walker camp it is mindnumblingly stupid. Because
    a) he was polling ahead,
    b) the main result likely to get Barrett vote to polls,
    c) it could hurt reputation in longer run and
    d) if he loses and is caught doing this, that is a double whammy.

    If Barrett camp the move might be politically brilliant– it could result in voter turn out that propels him past gap. Of course it could hurt his reputation, but — in politics– winning can matter more. In politics, losing hurts your reputation too.

    In either case: ethically challenged move. On the level of many ethically dubious things in politics. But still, ethically challenged.

  51. Eric Gisin–
    Have you read the voter turn outs in Madison? Or Milwaukee? I consider all races with this spread prior to balloting close.

  55. No champagne for Ike the clown. How does it feel to have the Koch bros. kick your hind end up between your ears?

  57. Billc
    I just wonder what the differences in pay, pensions etc are between military vs local firefighters, police

    The simplest answer is you have to serve 20 years for most military retirement benefits. For most public sector jobs you are covered after 3-5 years. Less than 27% stay in the military long enough to receive full benefits. Percentage change from state to state but in general round 85% of firefighters stay in their career for 20 or more years. Police officers have a much higher turnover rate about 15% don’t stay past 3 years and only around 30% make it 20 years about that same number opt for early retirement/disability after 12 years.

  60. Don Monfort (Comment #97266)
    June 5th, 2012 at 5:51 pm

    “No champagne for Ike the clown. How does it feel to have the Koch bros. kick your hind end up between your ears?”

    I prefer a good single malt scotch, but thanks for thinking of me, Donnie.

    Not sure what to do about your clown fetish other than to offer you a video. Enjoy.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bOUMIXbTM5U

  63. A Brazilian told me this “joke”:
    “could you tell me the difference between a politician and a thief??
    “The thief chooses us, WE chose the politician!!!”

  64. Doc–
    We were watching Netflix to avoid checking every minute. Yes. It looks like Champagne and not MD20/20!

  66. Hmmm… on twitter Barrett supporters think race is not over. Evidently some polls aren’t closed. (They ran out of ballots in Milwaukee.)

    Maybe no Veuve? I hope I’m not disappointed in the AM.

  67. Ike the clown,

    Really, how does it feel? Hurt, don’t it.

    You can celebrate now, lucia. The clowns have lost. Hopefully, this outbreak of rationality will be contagious and infect the once great state of Illinois.

  68. Don Monfort (Comment #97284)
    June 5th, 2012 at 8:50 pm

    ‘Ike the clown,

    Really, how does it feel? Hurt, don’t it.”

    As I live in a pro-union, blue state, in a county with 5.6% unemployment, I feel fine, Donnie. We welcome Koch bucks here. It has no impact on our election outcome but helps our local economy.

  71. Well, now we know that Ike the clown does not live in Detroit. A county in a pro-union blue state with 5.6% unemployment. Can’t be too many of those. My highly educated guess is that Ike the clown’s county is very white, suburban, and has a lot of circuses. Probably a large university campus too, full of the guilt ridden white liberal effete.

  74. Mosher – Public records created and stored on public property. What amazed me is the redacted John Doe. That wont last.

    Somebody really had it in for her, and she delivered.

  75. One of the (many) things I don’t understand about US politics is why red = Republicans and blue= Democrats. In most of the world red represents the left (“we’ll keep the red flag flying here”,etc) and blue the right (“true-blue Conservative”,etc).
    Anyone know the origin of this tradition?

  76. Kan.

    Note that Romney’s private email has been hacked.

    These cases will make discussions around climategate more interesting.

    thats all

  77. Cui Bono –

    That explains my misunderstanding of US politics for the last 30 years. 🙂

  78. Send in some more impotent progressive clowns. The evil right-wing conspiracy is on a roll. On to the White House!

  82. Cui Bono –

    I read the links [thanks Ike] and was tickled to read that there was no possibility of aligning the colour scheme with the rest of the planet because it had become “so ingrained in the American consciousness”.

    I wondered what century it originated in, and then found out it started in the year 2000!

    I guess we have a different sense of history 🙂

  83. Anteros – yep, and after 12 years it’s an American ‘tradition’! They sure move fast! 🙂

  84. Lucia: I am late on this, as Walker was re-elected handily, but, I have been following Intrade on this, and that market had Walker winning at over 90% for the last few days.

    I find the concept of The Wisdom of Crowds to be generally accurate, especially when money is involved.

  86. Les– Does anyone have statistics on who Intrade odds match winnings? If Intrade says 90% chance of winning, do people win 90% of the time?

  87. I would assume (and knowing the dangers of assumptions), that the odds are the same as for regular polls; Accurate 19 out 20 times with a 2% to 3.5% margin of error.
    .
    From personal experience, it has never been wrong on the events I tracked. The odds change closer to the event, and become more certain the closer it gets. Or less certain, which indicates the event is not going to occur.
    .
    There is even a climate market.
    .
    http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=87988

  88. Les– I was just wondering if anyone had been watching Intrade spreads and outcomes in a formal way. It would be interesting to see. Obviously for this to happen, someone would have to have been grabbing data (or have access to it) so they could do the stats. I certainly haven’t!

  90. Anteros, Cui Bono.

    The red state/blue state thing is less a tradition than it is a choice by the media. See this explanation:
    http://www.word-detective.com/2007/06/blue-state-red-state/

    The colors should have switched for the 2008 election – the incumbent Republican party would have been blue and the challenger Democrat party would have been red. This was the system that had been devised in the 70’s to avoid color favoritism.

    Our media no longer even tries to avoid favoritism. So they have selected the more favorable blue color for their party and we are stuck with it.

  91. Is blue a more favorable color? I know red conveys “leftist” more generally, but I don’t think any Americans are confused into thinking Republicans are leftists.

  92. Well, according to Wikipedia, it has been seen as more favorable for Americans since at least the late 1800’s. Blue was seen as the color of Lincoln’s party; the Confederate flag is strongly red. Red is not just associated with Liberalism, but with radicalism. Both the soviet and Nazi flags were strongly red, which could lead to negative connotations for various generations of Americans.
    And then there is the phrase “true blue”.
    Red is a warning color, while blue tends to be thoughtful and soothing.

    Plus, I personally like blue. 🙂

  93. Tamara/Lucia –

    Has the blue/red thing spread out from the media and election time?
    I’m just wondering if it in any way approaches the identification we have here in the UK.

    Does the idea of a ‘watermelon’ resonate in the US – green on the outside but red (ie socialist) on the inside? Is there any general history to equate communists with ‘reds’? I’m wondering if there is at all the feeling that the red/blue depictions of states in elections are somehow the ‘wrong way round’?

    So many questions! I guess its time I took another trip across the Atlantic 🙂

  94. Red is my absolute favorite color. But I recognize the widespread of love of blue. (Jeans etc.) Red is often used as an accept. Even I use it that way. Much as I love it, I would rarely wear red pants, red shoes, red blouse etc. all at once. I wouldn’t paint a whole room red either.

  95. Other negative “red” connotations:
    caught red-handed
    red-light district
    Scarlet letter/scarlet woman
    Redcoats (negative to American revolutionaries)

    Of course, I am talking about the predominant American cultural connotations. Red has a more positive connotation in Eastern cultures (my Korean sister-in-law wore a beautiful red wedding dress, and wouldn’t have even considered wearing white).

    Some positive connotations:
    the color of love (probably not the first one to come to mind in a political situation)
    Red Badge of Courage
    associated with self-sacrifice (e.g. Blood of Christ)

  97. Wearing red is supposed to instill confidence, and I have used it in situations when I have to give a talk or interview. The question is, would it still boost my confidence if I didn’t know it was supposed to?

  98. Anteros (Comment #97324)

    Red roses = true love
    Blue violets = faithfulness

    A fortunate pairing. 🙂

  99. How about feeling blue? The blues?
    As opposed to red mist, red raw and reds under the beds!

  102. The Senate has flipped to the Dems. The incumbent had a big lead all thru the night, even with 47 out of 60 precincts, increased his lead to over 3000 votes. Then lost by 800.

  103. Mike N,
    Since the WI senate is not in session, and that seat is up again this fall, if I understand correctly, this may well be moot.
    The democrat tactic of waiting until an election count is nearly over to dump in ‘found’ ballots to claim victory makes this result a bit quesitonable.
    This tactic was done in Texas for LBJ, Chicago, Washington state, and I am certain elsewhere.
    Frankly I would strongly consider a recount. From the corrupt petition process to the apparently justified stories of voters being shipped in, I doubt if what you reported happened without democrat/union corrupt practices

  104. “and I am certain elsewhere”

    Yes, the last Tea Party meeting I went to had a segment on the local history of/how to spot the inevitable Democratic Party sponsored voter fraud.

    Andrew

  105. “lucia
    Red is my absolute favorite color.”

    It has long been known that men have an aversion to red, especially compared with women, Jastrow (The popular aesthetics of color, Pop. Sci. Man., 1897).
    Men generally favor Blue > Red and women Red > Blue.
    The reason which may result from the association of Red with blood. In male terms blood is generally associated with violence, whereas with women blood is a natural part of their experience.

    Here is a recent study that supports Jastrow (1897).

    http://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=U5R_3beooQEC&oi=fnd&pg=PA173&dq=color+preference+gender+effects+Jastrow+%281897%29&ots=w30vSzv1EQ&sig=OTW-K_rasASsrTcnbInotq2ZZtY#v=onepage&q&f=false

  106. The democrat tactic of waiting until an election count is nearly over to dump in ‘found’ ballots to claim victory makes this result a bit quesitonable.
    This tactic was done in Texas for LBJ, Chicago, Washington state, and I am certain elsewhere.

    In fairness,
    1) I’m pretty sure Republicans in DuPage county have also been know to “find” ballots
    2) In recall election, some polling places in Democrat leaning Milwaukee and Madison had very long lines, the polling times were extended as required by law and so counting was delayed.

    I haven’t read anything about the robo-calls yet. I am wondering who did it. As I wrote yesterday– if the Walker or uncontrolled Walker supporters did it, it was idiotic on may levels. That doesn’t mean they didn’t do it. But the “stupid” factor would be as strong if Barrett or Barrett supporters did it.

  107. Anteros–
    I think most American’s would grasp what “watermelon” is meant to convey in England. We’ve got oreo and inside out oreo. I’ve heard the former more often than the latter. We also have twinkie which I’ve rarely heard, but would probably understand in context.

  108. Lucia: Don’t forget “apple”, as long as we are talking external vs internal coloration….

  109. Les- I hadn’t heard that one. Is it Native American on the outside? The amount of collective creativity in creating pejoratives sometimes boggles the mind.

  110. “Tamara
    Redcoats (negative to American revolutionaries)”

    The ‘Redcoats’ were never called Redcoats by the colonialists.
    The nickname given to British Soldiers was the ‘Goddamn’s’; it was said that each sentence began ‘Goddamn,….’
    The term ‘Goddamn’s’ was bowdlerized into ‘Redcoats’ between 1820 and 1880, during this time ‘Cock’ became ‘Rooster’, ‘Cockroach’ became ‘Roach’, ‘Breast’ became ‘Bosom’; not even the Bible was spared, the biblical ass was change to ‘Jackass’, ‘Jack’ or ‘Donkey’.

    Interesting test for the spam filter

  112. I guess I need to brush up on my urban slang. That all just sounded like delicious snack ideas.

  114. And pomegranates ? Are they something meaningful in the pantheon of gratuitous characterisations?

    Or can I just like ’em and eat ’em? 🙂

  115. “The problem with public sector unions is that the employees are numerous enough to politically pressure the politicians into agreeing to outrageous wages and benefits.”

    SteveF nailed the issue of public unions. Even FDR was against public unions as was the early leader of the AFL-CIO as I recall.

    There is no doubt that what was seen as a very big problem with public unions has come to fruition and we are seeing many states facing bankruptcy because of it. I think the issue probably is clear to a lot of people but I can see partisan Democrats fighting against fixing the problem because the vicious cycle has helped Democrats the most.

    I am not at all convinced that the outcome of the WI vote has changed things that much as I continue to think most of the masses and almost all of the intellectuals in this country are irresponsible about these financial issues and the burdens we are putting on future generations. What happened in Greece could well happen here and the reaction of the voters would not be much different that in was in Greece -unless there is a major change in what the intellectuals think on these issues. Marching to the polls and cheering the vote counts will not cut it.

  116. Kenneth-
    The outcome of the recall vote shows:
    As political conditions currently stand currently a politician can make changes that are opposed by public unions and survive their wrath.

    Even by itself, this is not insignificant. But when you look at the changes he made, it’s even more significant. One of changes included eliminating automatic collection of unions dues. In Wisconsin, once they weren’t forced to pay dues, roughly 2/3rds of the members of “American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees Council 24” quit. Under the pre-existing system, government laws helped unions collect money much of which then got used to support activities to help elect people who would create legislation that made unions even stronger.

    Showing this cycle can be broken is beneficial all around. It means more politicians in other states with budget crises are going to be willing to push back against unions. (I don’t think it’s going to help us in Illinois for a while. But still, the example is helpful.)

    What happened in Greece could well happen here and the reaction of the voters would not be much different that in was in Greece -unless there is a major change in what the intellectuals think on these issues

    The lesson one should learn from Greece is that one has to nip some things in the bud before catastrophe is upon them not after.

  117. A colorful discussion this has been. Red and white (wine), red and blue (states), and green and red (watermelons).

    Back to the grapes. Lucia, you deserve Chateau Lafite Rothschild, and must have enough quatloos as the “house” to afford it. Not ripple, or thunderbird or two-buck-chuck – that was for when we were younger and poorer.

  118. Lucia: yes, an apple is a reference to Indian on the outside, white on the inside.
    .
    On the topic of accurate predictions of elections, Mark Perry has this on his blog:
    .
    Basically, the S&P 500 is a good predictor of the presidential race.
    .
    http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2012/06/stocks-predict-presidential-election-88.html
    .
    You would think that the people most interested in Obama losing, would also be the most interested in seeing an increase in the S&P index. A real conundrum….

  119. Les, long term investors like to buy stocks when they are cheap. A bear market is a win-win. 🙂

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