We’re almost 1/3rd through May. It’s cool out. April’s tulips are blooming. Mother’s day peonies won’t be blooming for at least two weeks. How’s the weather where you are? Well, whatever it is, remember: when you bet on May’s UAH temperature anomaly, that’s the global average. Anyway, most of you know the drill. Enter your bet!
[sockulator(../musings/wp-content/plugins/BettingScripts/UAHBet_logUAs.php?Metric=UAH TTL?Units=C?cutOffMonth=5?cutOffDay=17?cutOffYear=2013?DateMetric=May, 2013?)sockulator]
Bets end Midnight May 16.
Note: I’m doing a little snoopy data collection when you hit “submit”. Nothing personally identifiable.
“How’s the weather where you are?”
Amazing. A run of days in mid 70’s °F. The wrinkle is that here it’s just six weeks to winter solstice. And I’m at the cold end of the country.
Nick–
I wish it was 70 F here! The tulips are pretty though.
I’m wondering when it will be safe to plant basil seeds.
“Amazing.”
“Today’s Almanac
Temperature|Forecast | Average | Historical Range
High | 66°F | 78 °F | 53 to 96 °F
Low | 37 °F | 56 °F | 35 to 75 °F”
Global Warming.
Andrew
The weather in Ft. Worth has been wonderful.
We had a week of sun here in Halifax, but then it changed yesterday. Forecast is for rain and high of 50’s F until Thursday, possibly thundershowers tomorrow.
I should have done my first lawn mow last week. Might need a tractor when, if ever, it dries up.
Is Nick going to put some Quatloos down this week?
It seemed to take longer to process the bet than usual.
Is that due to data collection?
Scott,
My mother taught me to be very careful with my quatloos. UAH has been erratic lately. Last month it went down considerably, while RSS went up.
Ray,
I don’t think the slowness is due to that. I had problems with the database yesterday. The whole site was down for about 15 minutes. I submitted a ticket and Dreamhost wrote:
(Dreamhost also put up a sitewide announcement saying there was a problem in the LA data center. )
The data collection is quick.
I see motion in the “up” direction for UAH!
Lucia: “I see motion in the “up†direction for UAH!”
Or down in RSS. 😉
The water and air temperature here in the Raggeds are a very consistent 80Ëšall the time 🙂
Weather here is hardly ever temperature changes, it is mostly rain and wind.
Carrick–
Both actually. My general thought is that each measurement system contains “signal + measurement noise”. Those that went ‘up’ the most last month tend to have had ‘+’ measurement noise last time. Those that went ‘down’ last month tend to have had ‘+’ measurement noise. On the one hand, both RSS and UAH will tend to have some shared ‘measurement noise’. That said: UAH’s noise is likely more ++ than RSS’s.
I think the real reason Nick isn’t betting is that he read the html and saw I’m logging the plugins. He’s probably got a plugin called
“My dirty secret plugin that reveals some bad habit I have ver 0.3” and he doesn’t want me to see that.
I’m also logging fonts. But since he reads javascript, he knows I can’t discover his “My dirty pictures fonts that I use to indulge in my dirty secret”.
I have discovered there are an enormous number of possible plugins! (I”m not putting these anywhere where they can be associated with bets, emails, etc. They are going in an entirely separate flat file. BTW: Some of the plugins look pretty useful. I may go hunt them down and use them!)
Lucia/Carrick,
After adjustment to 1961-90, UAH and RSS were virtually identical in April.
My basil is up and growing, my garlic and onions and thyme are blooming, my pepper plants are just starting to get ready to bloom, no real flowers yet, but the buds are growing.
How are your garlics doing Lucia, you should have some leaves out.
Garlic has leaves! But my stuff is not blooming. Heck, they are predicting frost tonight!!
Very nice here in Tohoku now. The winter’s 1.8 metre blanket of snow has gone. Farmers are propogating rice seedlings and out cultivating the fields. I’ve cast a clout before May is out, and put my longjohns into store.
We had no cherry blossom this spring: the finches were all starving and took the buds. The climate here is ideal for stonefruit as well as rice. Cherries I can take or leave, but after the watermelon season we get magnificent plums, peaches and nectarines. Yum.
After a long, cold and snowy winter, on Wednesday the good lady and I are off to Thailand for some beachside relaxation. To avoid the globull worming, dontcha know 🙂
It was 100F in SoCal yesterday in a rare, but not unheard of heat wave. Cooling to more typical mid 80s this week. Jacaranda trees are blooming early this year and it looks like a serious fire season already. This after 4 years of relatively late, cool summers.
The weather here has gone through 4 seasons in five days. Summer on Thursday with temps in the mid 20s. It cooled off to early fall on Friday. By Saturday noon the wind was howling and the snow was falling. The all time record for May snowfall may have been broken on Saturday, and again broken on Sunday as the snow continued to fall until 10 pm. We are back to mid April temps today, edging into double figures.
I put plastic bags over my planters to ward off frost last night. It’s cool today. I want summer!!! (We have gotten some warmth. But I love wamth!!)
Frost won’t hurt garlics; but a hard freeze will. If you have good mulch and nutrients, your garlic plants should get up to 5 feet tall before the stalk with the flower cluster turns serpentine. Some won’t go serpentine but those are usually the smaller plants.
WTH! bet entry is squirrelly and unstable (or maybe the bettor) Unable to have page stable long enough to enter info andbet…3 times…
my number is 0.0891 with 3 quatloos!! Do you hear me world. I need this, I don’t think I won at powerball…
Aha, success! What a clever bot I be
went back again…it is definitely flaky regarding dying before things completed. Think the government must be running this site now. That must be it…
mwgrant (Comment #113065),
It’s not unstable… just extremely slow.
I had to wait about 20 seconds (rough guess, I didn’t actually time it) to receive the confirmation of my bet.
Dreamhost has been under attack. The databases are having trouble. It’s happened to me to– and even on the admin side. I can see the attacks in the server logs. (It’s not just my blog. They’ve had system wide announcements.)
Skeptical
Just for the record, closing on its own sans user action before the entire form is completed might be considered unstable in some circles. [Multiple trials]. Still (unperceived) slowness and user error may have contributed in a case or two. Given multiple attempts and having knowledge of past expected behavior, however, I would describe the experience as extremely unstable–trying to beat it before if hiccupped did lead to one premature incomplete submittal and one –bag over head-math error.
Still the behavior was certainly consistent with Lucia’s comment. I continued to have ifficulties with ‘commenting’ later in the AM, though things seem normal now. I’ll see when I click ‘Submit!’
Above all, thank you for your diligence Lucia. Please give the cats each a scratch under the chin for me–I am sure they have been working hard on the matter too.
mwgrant
I confirm it’s unstable. I’ll add a few to see if there is anything “special” in the instability. (I’ll bet values of anomalies pulled out of thin air thereby losing quatloos if I forget to delete!)
mwgrant appears to have 2 active bets.
That means he entered two emails. If he intends to have only one, let him tell me and I’ll consolidate the two.
lucia, Skeptical
unstability residue from the already mentioned multiple attempts under unstable conditions…
BTW, while it was a late hour (actually wee hour) but if i remember correctly 0 for 1Q was on a ‘successful entry’ that popped up after entry, but this was this instance when the entry form closed early on its own. It appearance was fleet as the system kicked back to the main page of the blog. Also I had entered name and email but indeed no UAH guess or bet when that occur.
Anyway, don’t want no gaming commission poking around so for the kazillion ‘time’ :
the bet is 0.0891 at 3 quatloos
I am curious. When we make multiple entries under ‘normal’ circumstances the earlier ones appear struck-out with the latest remaining as ‘the’ bet. Is that the app or manual editing?
HTH and regards
mwgrant–
I suspected as much. I just wanted confirmation.
Hmm…. it’s the app. I’m not sure why it’s happening. Maybe bets got lost? I’ll look.