16 thoughts on “What about the Quatloos? April 2013!”

1. My bet was supposed to be for 0.195, a bit less than my 0.2 last month. Still out of the money. Temps are dropping almost as fast as my stock portfolios.

2. That small shower of quatloos came at the last minute. I was on the brink of asking Lucia for a debt relief.

3. Lucia,

   It’s most likely a hare brained idea, but I think you should dare SkS with a monthly “Bet on UAH” challenge.

   If Johnny C. would agree, have them post their own betting pool each month, and at the end of the “fiscal” year compare the results.

   Ex-ante each site would declare the eligible participants. That probably means giving SkS a practice month. On the first of every month the record of previous month’s bets would be closed, disclosed, and recorded.

   The goal is simply to see who’s readers are better predictors. Plain, simple, and boring. The only motivation would be bragging rights.

   I think this would be a mutually beneficial experiment, in a marketing sense, no?

   AJ

4. Apropos to nothing, but I can’t help but abbreviate Mr. Cook’s initials as JoC. What with all the hoohaw over SS vs. SkS, it seems proper to avoid confusing Mr. Cook with that other JC.

5. Jesus Earl, what the heck are you saying?

6. Lucia: have you ever looked at the mean and the average of the guesses? How are we doing as group? This time around, we suck. I get a median of 0.165, and an average of 0.204. The mode is not bad, at 0.123

   How do the older bets look? Are they tagged?

7. Les– I haven’t. I could… but I haven’t. Generally, we suck when there is a large uptick or down turn. Or when I post the betting form early. 🙂

8. “Generally, we suck when there is a large uptick or down turn.”

   Or when the latest result comes in? :OP

9. AJ: What you’re proposing would discourage me from betting. I don’t mind being/looking foolish but I would mind making Lucia’s readers look more foolish than they actually are. Let a lighthearted betting game be what it is.

10. A.J. 5:54

    There’s another interesting benefit to what you are suggesting. It’s analogous to something I did as a manager.

    I was having trouble keeping my key managers focused on current realities – they played to the stereotypes. The sales guy was always over optimistic, the accountant pessimistic and my operations manager kept flipping between the two. It was very important to get everyone on the same page.

    I asked each of them to put $10 in an envelope with a prediction for next month’s sales. The closest to actual would keep all the money.

    It was amazing how quickly the communications among the players started to focus on current performance and how the predictions started to converge.

    Nobody likes to look stupid!

11. I think it’s time for me to get a new set of tarot cards… the set I’ve got now ain’t working at all.

12. Wow, I was spared from last place only due to Ed Forbes’ typo. I need to re-calibrate the wagometer. Or perhaps put my bets in a little later.

13. I won!!!

    {dashes off to splash Quatloos}

14. I didn’t get a chance to post my usual statistical analysis of the bets under the original topic, but perhaps it is better here.
    For the purposes of this analysis, I have used a figure of 0.195c for EdForbes’s bet.
    The observed figure was within +/- 1 standard deviation, although at the lower end.
    NO. OF BETS 51
    MAX 0.420
    MIN -0.010
    MEAN 0.170
    MEDIAN 0.165
    STD DEV 0.082
    MEAN 1-26 0.173
    MEAN 26-51 0.163
    MEAN PLUS 1 SD 0.253
    MEAN MINUS 1 SD 0.088
    WITHIN +/- 1 SD (%) 76.47
    ABOVE MEAN (%) 45.10
    BELOW MEAN (%) 54.90

15. Kind of like a _very_ slow-motion horse race. The Skeptics are rooting for the temperature to stay flat. Every month, another exciting nail in the coffin!! The Believers are rooting for the temperature to get started going up again, as they know well it will eventually. Come on, already!! Stupid world, don’t you care about our political problems?

    Go teams, go!

16. yahooo, I’m back on the winning track.
    Although my head feels like I’ve spent my Qatloos on Pan Galactic Gargle Blasters the entire weekend at The Restaurant at the End of the Universe, is simply a matter of sleep deprivation.
    Too busy schedule for family visits this weekend.

    I’ve saved my price. Anyone around knowing the exchange rate between Quatloos and Bitcoins?
    (Yes, yes, I know I’m probably too late) 🙁
    Cassanders

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