It’s April. A Daffodil is blooming in my yard. I see no snow. I am hoping to see tulips, hyacinths and other pretty flowers soon. We are planning my birthday celebration.
More importantly, it’s time to bet on the UAH temperature.
[sockulator(../musings/wp-content/uploads/2011/UAHBets5.php?Metric=UAH TTL?Units=C?cutOffMonth=4?cutOffDay=16?cutOffYear=2014?DateMetric=April, 2014?)sockulator]
Deadline 4/15/2014.
Tips: El Nino seems to be anticipated– but it is not here yet. The strategy of ‘betting the current temperature” worked last month, but it usually does not. The problem with that strategy is you often get close to the right temperature, but are easily edged out because bets may cluster. If you do use this strategy, remember: ties go to the person who best first. So, bet early.
In contrast, bets are not clustered in the tails and you are less likely to experience losing out on quatloos when the tie goes to the earlier better. But you can easily be way off. You be the judge of your best strategy!
Good luck.
Lucia –
There’s some junk — leftover html? — after the line “You’ve tried to bet at least 0 times”.
Hmm… It’s 9:52… I’ll have to look at that tomorrow. I did make a few changes after SkS discussed their hack. I had sanitized data…and then double sanitized! Then I over did and tool ‘.’ out of floating points then undid. So I may have introduced something.
Heh… nothing to do with my first guess. It was html comment crap not properly inserted.
Deadline?
John Norris,
Deadline 4/15/2014.
I think that in the end you have to bet on what you think the temperature is going to be.
There is no point in betting on a number to avoid clustering, especially as you don’t know how everyone else is betting.
The temperature isn’t a random number (hopefully).
isn’t UAH reported in degrees of anomaly? It looks like you are
asking for the actually temp average, cuz I really want to get this right! voting for a +.10C means what?
I know it is impolite to ask, but, have you reached your 29th birthday yet?
A guess is still a guess whether the system is linear or chaotic. My guess is that NOAA & NCDC do not know if ENSO will be La Nina or El Nino in 6 months time.
The Great Lakes are melting their ice in reverse order in which they froze with Lake Michigan first (Ontario never did freeze over) in proportion to their watershed’s warming. Wisconsin snow melt has had the largest impact upon Lake Michigan’s ice melt. Then the most northern portions of Lake Huron, likely the spill over from Michigan’s melt. Finally, we see the warming of Lake Superior’s watershed especially from the rivers around Thunder Bay in the Province of Ontario Canada. Watching the winter ice cometh and goeth has been fun, although, I have been known to watch paint dry (before the next coat).
I know it is impolite to ask, but, have you reached your 29th birthday yet?
A guess is still a guess whether the system is linear or chaotic. My guess is that NOAA & NCDC do not know if ENSO will be La Nina or El Nino in 6 months time.
The Great Lakes are melting their ice in reverse order in which they froze with Lake Michigan first (Ontario never did freeze over) in proportion to their watershed’s warming. Wisconsin snow melt has had the largest impact upon Lake Michigan’s ice melt. Then the most northern portions of Lake Huron, likely the spill over from Michigan’s melt. Finally, we see the warming of Lake Superior’s watershed especially from the rivers around Thunder Bay in the Province of Ontario Canada. Watching the winter ice cometh and goeth has been fun, although, I have been known to watch paint dry (before the next coat).
RiHoO8,
I reached 29 long, long ago! I’ll turn 55.
As my aunt would say: you’re coming up on your 27th ann. of your 29th birthay.
timothy sorenson,
You want to match the number Roy reports. That’s an anomaly. The really tricky months are when he changes the baseline which happens every 10 years. 🙂
Just in case I’m not here for the occasion, Lucia, happy birthday.
Regards
lucia, I’m not sure just which day is your birthday, so happy early birthday!
There was something I wanted to share, and I think this is an open thread, so here goes (plus, it’s sort of relevant). A recent Skeptical Science piece by Dana Nuccitelli says:
The link goes to a piece about Cowtan & Way’s recent work. I find this remarkable. Cowtan & Way do nothing to address the concern of things like UHI as Nuccitelli implies. More importantly, they do nothing to address whether or not “surface temperature measurements” are biased one way or another. All Cowtan & Way did was examine whether or not one method used to generate results based on those measurements was biased.
Either I’m missing something, or Nuccitelli is misrepresenting his colleagues’ work.
Here is my analysis of the April betting:
NO. OF BETS 51
MAX 0.700
MIN 0.023
MEAN 0.192
MEDIAN 0.187
STD DEV 0.088
MEAN 1-26 0.196
MEAN 226-51 0.186
MEAN PLUS 1 SD 0.279
MEAN MINUS 1 SD 0.104
WITHIN +/- 1 SD (%) 90.20
ABOVE MEAN (%) 39.22
BELOW MEAN (%) 60.78
ABOVE MAR (%) 72.55
BELOW MAR (%) 27.45
For the purpose of this analysis I have assumed that LisaTurner’s bet was intended to be 0.18c not 18c and that Edward’s was intended to be 0.199c not 1.99c. Lucia may not take this attitude as it may affect the betting outcome.
On the other hand I have assumed that bobdroege’s figure of .7c, Genghis’ of 0.031c and JohnNorris’ of 0.023c were the intended figures.
Incredibly, the resulting mean of 0.192c in the same as last month but there is a higher % below the mean than last month. The number predicting a rise compared to last month is about the same as in March.
Should have been:
MEAN 26-51 0.186
Ray –
I was surprised to see 90% within +/-1 SD. I think this is mostly due to the one remaining outlier (at 0.7). Without that entry, the SD becomes 0.049 rather than 0.088. 78% are within +/-1 SD, and 94% within +/-2 SD.
0.7c is just within the realms of possibility as are the low outliers.
It’s difficult to know whether they are genuine bets.