Betting

Bet on May UAH!

28 Comments

This month we’ll give those who like to watch the auguries a good chance to beat everyone else: Betting is opened super late. But it’s opened now. Those who wish to bet, here’s the form!

[sockulator(../musings/wp-content/uploads/2011/UAHBets5.php?Metric=UAH TTL?Units=C?cutOffMonth=6?cutOffDay=1?cutOffYear=2014?DateMetric=May, 2014?)sockulator]
Deadline 5/31/2014.

28 thoughts on “Bet on May UAH!”

  1. Is ice minimum betting coming soon? I’ll try to remember this year that you use a 7 day average …

  3. We’re still several months away. Betting before July is really a guessing game. PIOMAS Ice volume is up so far this year. And Antarctic sea ice area has been setting daily records for much of the year. It’s so high that the combined Arctic and Antarctic area ranks 6th out of the last 36 years at the moment. The rank was 2 of 36 on April 10.

  4. lets see Random walk from last month’s result, same value 0.19. add in Lucia’s comment on most people underestimating so go up 0.01 degree. perfect.

  5. DeWitt Payne over at WUWT there is a prediction of above normal arctic anomaly in August for the first time in a long while. hope it comes true.

  6. Re: angech (May 28 17:59),

    If the wind patterns keep ice from being pushed out the Fram Strait in June and July, that might be possible. I’m not holding my breath, though. 2010 had higher ice volume than 2014 until the end of April, after which it fell precipitously until bottoming out in 2012. I’m hoping for good volume numbers in May. But they won’t be available until mid-June. If the ratio of ice area to ice extent means anything, it’s looking good so far.

  7. Hot in the middle east, cold in China. Hot in australia but cold up the backbone of the Americas. Warm in LA and Anchorage, but cold in Timbuctu

    I say +0.20 deg C

  8. What angtech said.
    Anyway, this does not appear to have been the month when all the missing heat finally broke out of the Trenberth Hidden Heat Deep Ocean Layer.

  9. Analysis of this months betting:
    NO. OF BETS 52
    MAX 0.300
    MIN -0.051
    MEAN 0.186
    MEDIAN 0.200
    STD DEV 0.056
    MEAN 1-26 0.191
    MEAN 26-52 0.181
    MEAN PLUS 1 SD 0.242
    MEAN MINUS 1 SD 0.130
    WITHIN +/- 1 SD (%) 82.69
    ABOVE MEAN (%) 63.46
    BELOW MEAN (%) 36.54
    ABOVE APR (%) 61.54
    BELOW APR (%) 36.54
    While the mean is almost identical to April, the median is higher and most people have gone for a figure which is above the mean and April’s observed figure.

  10. Nailed the median again. The Consensus c’est moi! Right by definition.

  11. George Tobin (Comment #129864)
    May 29th, 2014 at 12:58 pm

    What angtech said.
    Anyway, this does not appear to have been the month when all the missing heat finally broke out of the Trenberth Hidden Heat Deep Ocean Layer.

    Detectable with the TrenberthRealClimate Aquatic Vanishing Energy Sensing Tool, Yes?

  12. I know this is off topic and that the center of the USA is not the center of the Universe, but, as of June 2 nd, 2014, there is measurable ice in Lake Superior.

    Now I am a betting man (all government money of course like entitlements etc), I’ll bet anyone 4.5 quatloods that ice will remain in Lake Superior through D-Day, June 6th. Storm the frozen beaches.

    Environment Canada marine Great Lakes site is my reference.

    Easy pickin’s I say.

  14. Off topic, but I would appreciate your opinion.

    http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2014/06/new-met-office-forecast-predicts-heavier-summer-downpours-with-climate-change/?utm_source=Daily+Carbon+Briefing&utm_campaign=82d8b470f2-DAILY_BRIEFING&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_876aab4fd7-82d8b470f2-303421281

    The above blog on the “Carbon Brief” blog about the recent MO study on heavy rainfall, includes the following statement:

    “Global Climate Models (GCMs) have done a good job of predicting changes in global average temperatures and rainfall in recent decades. ”

    In your opinion, is there any way that statement can be justified, i.e. that climate models have “done a good job” of predicting temperature changes?

  15. Ray,
    I haven’t run any tests. But I also don’t know how they define “good job”. That sounds like a value judgement– and how good something has to be to be a “good job” is itself a value judgement.

  16. Thanks,
    I would have thought a “good job” would require observed temps. not to be at the bottom-end of predictions.
    Especially since the MO have used the “most high-end climate projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change”, to run their model.

  17. Ray,
    I would not consider the temperature projections a “good job”. But evidently the MO standards are very low.

  18. Ray,
    I think for the cliamte obsessed, the definition of “good job” is something that helps the climate crisis narrative linger in the public square and influence policy makers.

  19. To be fair, it wasn’t the MO who said it AFAIK, but the chose to use the “high-end” forecasts, as far from observations as you could get, then feign surprise at the outcome.

  20. I would have thought a good job was getting paid reasonably well without being expected to produce anything or do any hard work. Perhaps the MO jobs qualify under this measure.

  21. Lucia: “evidently the MO standards are very low.”

    For a striking example of this, consider their self-evalution of their 2013 predictions of Atlantic storms:

    Observed numbers of hurricanes were also within the predicted range for all forecasts issued, apart from in May.

    Compare those words to their table 2 (page 10): their April forecast for 2-to-12 hurricanes for the May-October period is colored green, because 2 hurricanes occurred. Similarly, a June prediction of 2-14 with 2 observed gets a green grade.

    Those ranges are so broad that they barely constitute a prediction at all. [And those ranges are claimed to represent ±1 standard deviation.] This being Stanley Cup time, I’ll liken it to predicting that the average number of goals scored per game (by both teams combined) is between 2 and 8 inclusive.

    On the plus side of the ledger, the Met Office 2013 predictions for the number of tropical storms were quite close to reality. Hurricanes and ACE were way off, but they gave themselves a good score on hurricanes anyway.

  22. We had the same a few years ago (2009) when the UK had a really bad winter, and the met office had predicted a warm winter.

    In response, they said that they had predicted a 40% chance of warmer than normal, 30% chance of normal, and 30% chance of colder. Therefore they claimed after the fact that they had predicted a 60% chance of not being warmer, therefore they were correct. QED

  23. OT — A post by Gregory Cochran speculating about the differing effects of the current interglacial (Holocene, 11,700 BP – present) and the last one (Eemian, 130,000 – 114,000 BP) on human evolution.

    The Time Before.

  24. Betting is long since closed, but the results aren’t in yet. My 12 yr old son adds his unofficial wager of 4 Quatloos on 0.219. (Gives us a chance to talk about what an anomaly is.)

  25. May data – 0.33. Am I right in thinking that every single bet was on the low side? Has that happened before?

    It’s something of a surprise, especially given the RSS data, but there you go!

  26. Yep, it’s way above the highest bet of 0.300c
    Things getting interesting (less predictable) again?

  27. I am well out of the quatloos this month.

    And worse yet – I am well under.

    I have been trying to guess high and really blew it this time.

    Oh well – better luck in June 2014.

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