Data Comparisons

GISTemp: 0.45C

11 Comments

I thought we were off to a rip-roaring start when Jan GISTemp was 0.70C. But Feb is 0.45C. We’ve seen bigger monthly changes, but… interesting. I’ll have to do plots tomorrow. Meanwhile…. gotta go exercise.

11 thoughts on “GISTemp: 0.45C”

  1. Not a good start for Joe Romm. He has a bet with Tom Fuller, which I have layed off on, and Joe needs every year to be a record, between now and the end of the decade, for him to win.
    .
    And by record, I mean it needs to be 0.8 deg or more, every year through 2019.
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    “that the 2010s will be the hottest decade in the temperature record, more than 0.15°C hotter than the hottest decade so far using the NASA GISS dataset.”

    http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2009/10/12/204793/memo-to-deniers-delayers-disinformers-when-i-propose-a-sucker-bet-the-only-conclusion-you-can-draw-is-that-im-looking-for-suckers/

  2. Not a good start for Joe Romm. He has a bet with Tom Fuller, which I have layed off on, and Joe needs every year to be a record, between now and the end of the decade, for him to win.
    .
    And by record, I mean it needs to be 0.8 deg or more, every year through 2019. The longer the “pause” the greater the records need to be.
    .
    “that the 2010s will be the hottest decade in the temperature record, more than 0.15°C hotter than the hottest decade so far using the NASA GISS dataset.”
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    As of Feb 2014, the 2010s are 0.029 deg C warmer than the previous decade.

  3. Les, the count is about .06C warmer. You shouldn’t get credit for the whole year after just two months.

  4. OK, I think I see where you got the .029. I was using a different comparison, each year to ten years prior.

    However, .78 every year should win the bet for Romm.

  5. Hmmm…
    The GISS average anomaly for 2000-2009 (hottest decade prior to 2010) is currently 0.569. But on my computer I found a saved copy of GISS from Oct 2011, in which the 2000-9 average was only 0.516. Which one applies, the value in existence at the start of the bet, or the one which GISS publishes in early 2020 at the end of the bet? If the former, Romm might win on adjustments alone.

  6. Mike: yes, thats close to what I get, per year. This year needs 0.79 average temps. and the rest at 0.8, to beat 0.15 for the decade 2010-2019.
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    Unless warming kicks in with a vengenace, I can’t see Romm winning this “sucker bet”.
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    Using only full year anomalies, the current temp (2010-2013) is 0.034 deg above the 2000-2009 average.

  7. haroldw: Yes, adjustments could win it for Romm.
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    I have been seeing those same ‘adjustments’ as well. But, I update the entire record, and use the new ‘adjustments’ in my spreadsheet.
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    For now, though, the adjustments are in our favour, as a warmer 2000-2010 makes the required winning temps for Romm that much higher.

  8. Les Johnson (#126757) –
    Thanks. I was curious whether the terms of the wager were such that the threshold was frozen in 2010 at the then-current average for 2000-9 (plus the 0.15 K, of course), or whether the comparison will be made in 2020 based entirely on the future GISS values. It sounds like the latter path was chosen, which seems fairer in terms of how adjustments are treated.

  9. No adjustments can get Fuller. I think I mentioned that at the time he was making the bet or perhaps when I was evaluating it partway through. I think so far, the adjustments have helped Fuller. The 2010 to 2000 differential used to be a little higher, and after two years the bet totaled 31 at one point, just slightly in Romm’s favor. The big adjustment I mentioned on this site at the time was in Jan 2013. Probably accounts for half of the temp difference by itself. At the time the only real effect on 2010s vs 2000s was it substantially increased the peak to peak trend in temperatures, which was close to zero and appears to be again.

  10. The NCDC/NOAA data files are showing a figure of 0.41c for February, that’s colder than Feb. 1983 and only the 22nd warmest February in the series.

    For some reason however the global State of the Climate Report hasn’t been published yet, which makes me slightly suspicious.

    If the figure is correct, they won’t be able to say the temp. for the month is in the top 10 any more.

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