Roy Spencer announced this months UAH anomaly: 0.329C! Toasty warm! Win place and show went to Zer0th, jackmosevich and AndrewKennett. Interestingly everyone bet for lower temperatures than occurred. (Watch out, we are in an El Nino. Remember that for future bets!)
Here are the rest of the winnings:
| Rank | Name | Prediction (C) | Bet | Won | |
| Gross | Net | ||||
| — | Observed | 0.329 (C) | |||
| 1 | Zer0th | 0.3 | 5 | 79.429 | 74.429 |
| 2 | jackmosevich | 0.25 | 2 | 25.417 | 23.417 |
| 3 | AndrewKennett | 0.245 | 5 | 50.835 | 45.835 |
| 4 | PavelPanenka | 0.235 | 3 | 24.401 | 21.401 |
| 5 | PhilR | 0.23 | 5 | 30.918 | 25.918 |
| 6 | LesJohnson | 0.225 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 7 | Howard | 0.223 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 8 | Tamara | 0.222 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 9 | ivp0 | 0.222 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 10 | Freezedried | 0.221 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 11 | ScottBasinger | 0.22 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 12 | LanceWallace | 0.22 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 13 | MikeN | 0.22 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 14 | TerryMN | 0.219 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 15 | LouisJenks | 0.217 | 2 | 0 | -2 |
| 16 | Clyde | 0.214 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 17 | EarleWilliams | 0.211 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 18 | Dudley | 0.211 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 19 | denny | 0.211 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 20 | RobertInAz | 0.21 | 2 | 0 | -2 |
| 21 | JSW | 0.21 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| 22 | JohnF.Pittman | 0.21 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 23 | RickA | 0.203 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 24 | RobertLeyland | 0.202 | 4 | 0 | -4 |
| 25 | Lance | 0.202 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 26 | angech | 0.2 | 2 | 0 | -2 |
| 27 | RoscoeShaw | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| 28 | GeorgeTobin | 0.2 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 29 | Anteros | 0.197 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 30 | bobdroege | 0.195 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| 31 | MikeP | 0.192 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 32 | mct | 0.192 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 33 | EdForbes | 0.19 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 34 | AMac | 0.184 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 35 | MpG | 0.175 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 36 | BILL | 0.175 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 37 | Simon | 0.175 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 38 | Sigmundb | 0.175 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| 39 | steveta | 0.172 | 4.5 | 0 | -4.5 |
| 40 | RiHo08i | 0.171 | 4.5 | 0 | -4.5 |
| 41 | Tom | 0.17 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 42 | BobW | 0.165 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 43 | Ray | 0.16 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 44 | Motorbug | 0.153 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 45 | JoeShill | 0.14 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 46 | Skeptikal | 0.132 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 47 | march | 0.123 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 48 | DocMartyn | 0.121 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 49 | pdm | 0.115 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 50 | KreKristiansen | 0.07 | 4 | 0 | -4 |
| 51 | JohnNorris | 0.023 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 52 | AJAJAJ | -0.051 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
The net winnings for each member of the ensemble will be added to their accounts.
I’ll post the June betting form tomorrow!
It seems unfair that Zer0th doesn’t get all of the Quatloos!
So the highest estimate was too low, wow. I am so near the bottom this month.
Last place in my first attempt! Nowhere to go but up.
Aren’t we technically still in a La Nada?
AJ,
I think we are now in El Nino– but just barely. But -0.051 would have been a lowball even for La Nada!
Yes it was a lowball. Based on a loose and likely spurious correlation, I’m going to be a contrarian and bet that ENSO3.4 will start trending downwards in the next few months. Not a large bet mind you and I’d expect favorable odds 🙂 Unfortunately I didn’t check the actual ENSO3.4 before placing last month’s bet. If so, I’d probably have bet “no change”.
Are you going to have a bet on El Nino?
Well I got into the top 10 again but pretty far off the mark and out of the big money. I saw that the tropic oceans were warming and bumped my prediction above the mean but not nearly enough. It’s been a long while since I brought home the loos.
Oooh my temperature predicting spreadsheet said 0.318 for May.
But you got to be in it to win it….
My spreadsheet says future months should hover in the low 0.3s up to October, low 0.4s in Nov and Dec and then increase to low 0.6s in January. This is based on 0.2deg/decade warming rate and an El Nino development.
I think that even if we have strayed into ElNino territory it surely isn’t impacting on GMT yet given most of the jump was in the SH rather than tropics
My old model of DT = Pi/10 would have taken the quatloos again if I’d remembered to enter!
“I’ll post the June betting form tomorrow! ”
Did I miss it? 😉
I”m bad….