Data Comparisons

My Laser Focus on “NorthEast” Illinois.

4 Comments

Illinois Governor Pritzer has announced a phased reopening plan. The plan divides the state into 5 regions which will be assessed to determine whether they will be permitted to begin re-opening. DuPage county is bundled in with Chicago.

The criteria for moving along in phases is not deaths or cases. But that’s the only county level data I’ve found so far. So here we have deaths per million residents:

Here are new cases per million:

I’ve applied a weekly average to take out the weekly recording artifact. So many policy decisions and behavior responses are affecting the progress of the disease, I don’t think fancier processing is of much use.

4 thoughts on “My Laser Focus on “NorthEast” Illinois.”

  1. From a letter to the Lancet by former State Epidemiologist of Sweden, Johan Giesecke:
    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31035-7/fulltext

    Everyone will be exposed to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, and most people will become infected. COVID-19 is spreading like wildfire in all countries, but we do not see it—it almost always spreads from younger people with no or weak symptoms to other people who will also have mild symptoms. This is the real pandemic, but it goes on beneath the surface, and is probably at its peak now in many European countries. There is very little we can do to prevent this spread: a lockdown might delay severe cases for a while, but once restrictions are eased, cases will reappear. I expect that when we count the number of deaths from COVID-19 in each country in 1 year from now, the figures will be similar, regardless of measures taken.

  2. looks like the rate of confirmed cases and deaths falls even more quickly around Chicago than some other cities…. You could move to DeKalb county…. 200 cases, 2 deaths. 😉

  3. Mike M,
    Much in that brief lancet article is repeated in a recent article in Foreign Affairs (again by Swedes).
    .
    One interesting thing is that they suggest a year from now when the pandemic is over, they do not expect big differences in total deaths per million population, no matter the specific local policies. I suspect that is not going to be a very accurate prediction, because there is too big a range of population density and cultural factors, all of which will have some influence on the level of infection/resolution needed to reach heard immunity. I do think there will be a few places, like New Zealand, where boarders were closed very early, along with lots of contact tracing and quarantines, which are able to hold out until either effective treatments or a vaccine becomes available.
    .
    But mainly it will be herd immunity which ultimately suppresses the spread in most places… with some variability based on local factors. I would not be surprised by a factor of two in the ultimate number of deaths per million population, but I would be shocked if the range covered a factor of 4.
    .
    A big part of the range in death rates could be how well those in nursing/assisted living facilities are isolated. I was reading that about 2.5 million people live in these facilities. The best way to protect them would be to have staff living inside for extended periods, with daily testing of staff upon entry until they are for sure not ineffective. Pay these folks 8 times their normal salary to “live in”, and it would be a pittance next to the COVID legislation already passed…. and probably more effective.

  4. SteveF,
    Yes. But then there’s Kane county. We (DuPage) are between Kane and Cook. They had outbreaks in at least 2 nursing homes in Kane, just west of us. I don’t know what’s going on in Kankakee.

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