Thanksgiving is behind us.
Black Friday brings us news of a new variant: Omicron. From the WSJ:
Data from South Africa’s National Institute for Communicable Diseases show how the new variant over the past two weeks quickly crowded out the highly transmissible Delta variant. It now makes up around 90% of infections in the country’s most populous province, home to its political and economic capitals of Pretoria and Johannesburg.
Also
Germany’s BioNTech SE, which developed one of the most commonly used Covid-19 vaccines together with Pfizer Inc., said it would take about two weeks to establish whether the new variant renders its shot less effective. If needed, a BioNTech spokeswoman said, the companies could produce a new vaccine adjusted to any variant within six weeks and ship initial batches within 100 days.
I’ve been hoping for vaccines that specifically target more variants as they come out. I recognize they need testing for each one, so that’s slow. But with luck, if this does spread and evades the vaccine, I’ll be able to get another shot. I always said I’d go for that– just like I do for flu.
Oh. As you know, I’ve been following the progress on anti-viral nasal sprays. On the Iota-Carrageenan nasal spray front, some promising in-situ news:
Efficacy of a Nasal Spray Containing Iota-Carrageenan in the Postexposure Prophylaxis of COVID-19 in Hospital Personnel Dedicated to Patients Care with COVID-19 Disease
Interpretation: In this pilot study a nasal spray with I-C showed significant efficacy in preventing COVID-19 in health care workers managing patients with COVID-19 disease.
(The treatment was spraying your nose 4 times a day. The active ingredient is a food additive. There’s been lots of evidence it’s antiCovid in vitro. But in vitro ain’t in situ. So. . . )
Some other phase III clinical trials should be wrapping up soon.
If we get more variants, I might have to go back to making home-made spray which may do little more than make me feel a little safer. Looks like it could be better than a mask anyway. ( Obviously, I don’t see this as “instead of” a vaccination. )
Anyway: Happy Day After Thanksgiving! And open thread.
New variant of Wuhan virus, more contagious, strikes young people, just in time for selling vaccinations to young people.
Fauci is against a travel ban on South Africa. I think he wants it to spread here.
Variant is called nu, but they appear to be calling it omicron, allowing them to skip over Chairman Xi.
Why does “omicron” rather than “nu” skip Chairman Xi?
Ok… I see Xi is between Nu and Omicron. But I don’t understand how skipping nu accomplishes anything. (I would guess they don’t what it to sound like “new”? or “new variant”. It could be confusing in English.
All covid hysteria, all the time. Maybe the WHO could wait just a few days to actually learn the characteristics before setting off the alarm bells.
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The FDA should immediately approve the two oral antivirals that have been shown to save lives….. if they don’t approve those drugs, then maybe the goal of the FDA isn’t really to save lives but to do a total CYA while sentencing people to die, and most of all, maintaining an acceptably woke public image.
Biden admin has announced air travel restrictions. Don’t know if this is a ban.
Additionally, BIden made the statement that vaccinations and boosters are important, despite the conclusion that vaccines are not very effective against this variant.
MikeN,
I didn’t read a conclusion vaccines weren’t effective against this variant. I read it’s unknown (which would be natural for any new variant.) Can you like to something that makes a conclusion?
Something weird happened and this post got “disappeared”. I reappeared it.
Lucia,
“Institute for Communicable Diseases show how the new variant over the past two weeks quickly crowded out the highly transmissible Delta variant.”
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They clearly have not the slightest clue what they are talking about. A more transmissible variant will become “dominant”, but the less transmissible variant can continue to spread so long as there is a vulnerable population. There is no “crowding out” going on. There is however a great deal of hysteria.
So we are being told that the new variant might evade the vaccine and therefore people should get vaccinated or get boosters. Sounds like mixed messaging to me.
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Some reports claim the new variant is very mild.
MikeM–
I did see some reports the new variant might be mild. Not certain though. If it is very mild and also confers immunity to other variants, that will actually be a blessing! Cross your fingers!
Haven’t found where I saw vaccines are not effective.
Meanwhile Times of India reports that South African officials say this variant is mild.
MikeN,
I have read tons of speculations it could evade the vaccine. It has tons of mutations so the spike is very modified.
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Obviously, they can’t know it escapes until they see lots of people get sick. The same holds for mild. But I did read an article where an individual physician said all her patient cases were mild. (They were all young too though.)
Lucia wrote: ” It has tons of mutations so the spike is very modified.”
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Mutations are a double edged sword. If they change the spike significantly to avoid the vaccine, they’re likely to change it significantly to bind to its target. It’s possible to have lots of mutations which have very little effect on structure because amino acids are replaced by ones carrying similar charge and/or size/shape or exist in structurally irrelevant areas.
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You can see the just how “different” they can be by examining proteins between species which bind to the same targets. You’ll see tremendous variation overall, but key residues responsible for the really important stuff will be conserved between virtually all species. It’s like a jigsaw puzzle with a different picture but the same shaped pieces.
lucia (Comment #207667): “Ok… I see Xi is between Nu and Omicron. But I don’t understand how skipping nu accomplishes anything. (I would guess they don’t what it to sound like “newâ€? or “new variantâ€. It could be confusing in English.”
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So having decided to use greek letters so as to be neutral, they have now decided that greek letters aren’t neutral and are being selective as to which ones to use.
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OTOH, omicron is an anagram of moronic. So I guess it fits. 🙂
I know it’s totally unscientific and the author is selling a product but I found it interesting. “Wondering about your need for a vaccine booster? Or wondering how well antibodies neutralize the Delta Variant? Check out the chart I just made. You can see several months of neutralizing antibody results from the Cure-Hub.co antibody study.†https://twitter.com/IanFelipeSays/status/1465162869046059008
Russell,
I suspect he’ll make plenty of money.
While lying in the hospital after abdominal surgery ( tumor was localized with no spread to lymph nodes, stage IIA ) I looked up five year survival rates and something else popped up. While we know that life expectancies at birth are lower in the US than some other developed countries, apparently life expectancy for the elderly (80+) is significantly greater in the US than in Sweden, France and Japan (P < 0.01 ). I do remember reading somewhere that people over 80 in Sweden were practically on their own for health care.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/7565998/
DeWitt,
I hope you get well soon.
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There are lots of ways to control health care expenditures that the USA has not adopted. Those countries all have lower heath care costs than the States.
SteveF,
IMO, comparing health care costs between countries is even more fraught with potential errors than comparing life expectancy. But skimping on health care for the elderly is guaranteed to lower costs. There may not be ‘death panels’ per se, but the effect is the same.
IMO, saying that single payer health insurance won’t have death panels is similar to saying the FBI didn’t spy on the Trump campaign. It all depends on how you define your terms.
DeWitt,
” It all depends on how you define your terms.”
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Sure. I’m not certain there would ever be a “death panel” ruling on individual cases, but for sure (and inevitably) there would be rules promulgated about which patients qualify for specific treatments, and more importantly, which do not. I think a rational argument can actually be made about when publicly funded health care expenditures should be limited, but few (if any) politicians will ever make that argument explicitly…. single payer rules restricting treatments would be promulgated by faceless (and unaccountable) bureaucrats, never by (accountable) politicians. OTOH, many of those same politicians would be thrilled to spend public funds on health care for illegal immigrants. Did I ever tell you how much I dislike politicians?
Merely delaying care can be enough. I’d been exposed to a person who had Covid in October. The CDC recommended that people who were exposed the amount I was get a test. My provider had a “questionaire” for people to fill out and it said I didn’t need testing. Then to get testing, you were supposed to first make an appointment with your (busy) main doctor and then they would decide if you needed a free test. (If they decided otherwise, you pay your deductable. oy!)
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I phoned around… checked… blah.. I went to another local provider who had walk ins. (Walgreens has a wait.)
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Ok… Now I didn’t have Covid. But if I had had it, we now do have some treatments that work better if it’s caught early. Not being tested means not catching it early and an increase in chance of serious consequences.
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Just delaying some diagnoses is enough to reduce the elderly populations.
lucia (Comment #207689)
I was exposed to Covid-19 on TG day and am going for a test today or tomorrow. I currently have no symptoms. I looked up the place linked below that claims no appointments just walk in and get tested. I am going to give it a try. It is 2 miles from my home.
I wrote up my exposure experience in detail as a living (so far) uncontrolled experiment but thought it best to post it only after I see the results from some 30 people.
https://freecovidtestingsite.com/
Additional post of unscientific data from a guy selling antibody testing…… today there is a clear winner [in my mind] Vaxx plus natural infection. His intro: “People have been asking about natural immunity results. Here is that info. Also split out breakthrough infections and people who had a vaccine after natural infection.†https://twitter.com/IanFelipeSays/status/1465342840645439491?s=20
Edward/Elmhurst had walk ins when I got tested. Check their page for locations.
Dupage (now Duly) was a pain in the buttt. I complained on Nextdoor and some peopele say the could get them from DMG and others not.
On the other hand, I saw testing at the grocery store! (It’s gone now. It may scare grocery customers off. 🙂 )
Definitely better to get tested. I also wanted to know if I should isolate. Can’t give up dancing unnecessarily. 🙂
DeWitt, I wish you well with your medical issue. I agree that comparing results from medical systems in different countries is fraught with confounding which is, of course, fodder for politicians.
SteveF (Comment #207688)
“Did I ever tell you how much I dislike politicians?”
Yes, like I hear from myself. I never hear it too much.
I noticed in my conversations with the right and left wings of family and friends over TG that the left wing tends to have semi-heroes that they do not see as having the foibles of politicians, like Obama and Fauci, while the right wing tends to see it in all politicians (an encouraging sign for me) and they focus more on policy differences. I can see where that division might lead logically from differences in government size preferences, but it might just be that my relatives and friends are a special case.
Aren’t there at home covid tests now? Does one have to jump through hoops to get one?
I was tested for Covid-19 at the location in the link I gave above. The rapid test was negative and now I will await the results of the PCR test. The testing place was an area about 40X60 feet with 3 chairs, 2 tables and one very helpful guy running the operation. All the information (a lot) was recorded through my cell phone including a picture and signature. There were 2 older gentleman ahead of me who both tested negative. I would go back there again if I needed more testing.
With regards to home testing, I have a very bad reflex reaction to nose and throat swabbing and I live alone. I have to sit on my hands when the swabbing is carried out. The guy doing the testing was a very thorough swabber with the left nostril for the rapid and the right for the PCR test.
Kenneth,
I have to have a test Wednesday PM for an international flight. I’ve been tested 5 times with nasal swabs… horrible each and every time.
Mike M,
Last I knew, home tests were available in many other countries, but the FDA was (surprise) dragging its feet on approval of home tests. Just one more reason why I think the FDA needs to be disbanded and replaced with an organization that is far more responsive to reality.
DeWitt, adding my wishes for your speedy recovery and good health to the others.
Kenneth,
…”while the right wing tends to see it in all politicians (an encouraging sign for me) and they focus more on policy differences.”
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I think it is only rational to expect politicians to have the same human failings as the rest of us, only magnified manifold by endless temptations to misuse personal power and influence… like say, Joe Biden, or any of thousands of other blatantly corrupt politicians.
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So I think the focus should always be on policy differences, where the choices become much more rational than the often distasteful, even revolting, choices between two very imperfect, dishonest individuals.
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But that said, anybody who thinks Obama or (good grief!) Fauci is a hero needs to consider taking heavy doses of anti-psychotics.
Kenneth Fritsch (Comment #207693): “I noticed in my conversations with the right and left wings of family and friends over TG that the left wing tends to have semi-heroes that they do not see as having the foibles of politicians, like Obama and Fauci, while the right wing tends to see it in all politicians (an encouraging sign for me) and they focus more on policy differences.”
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The light goes on! I have noticed that people on the left seem to assume that all Trump supporters worship him even though most on the right seem well away of Trump’s flaws. It is just one more case of projection.
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Now, if I could only divine what ‘TG’ means. 🙂
Mike M.,
“TG” presumably means Thanksgiving.
Mike M, I see the problem in what, or better, the way I wrote it. If I would have said TG weekend, HaroldW would not have had to interpret for me.
Actually the discussions lasted the weekend and now I am glad to be home alone.
Kenneth,
That’s OK. You allowed me to believe that I did something useful today. 😉
I bought at home covid test this week at the grocery store. $23 for two tests, expire in a couple months. My daughter is visiting a bunch of college friends for a week then coming home for several days. My understanding is they aren’t as sensitive but can be used as a semi-reliable indicator whether somebody is contagious. Not clear how much variance there are between brands.
Omicron data is pretty much non-existent. One doctor says the cases are mild and the global press repeats it like a parrot. They are sure acting like it is significant, but not backing that up with any actual data. Unfortunately the government says not to panic, so that usually means the opposite, ha ha.
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The rapid rise in South Africa of this variant is the main cause for concern but apparently they started with very low numbers so that might be part of the issue. The vaccine makers no doubt have the the new genetic sequence and they know what they are targeting and they aren’t sounding very optimistic. We shall see, it’s the same catch-22. If you wait until you know enough, it’s too late to contain it. It’s already too late as far as I can tell. The world is pretty much done with lockdowns, so unless this one has higher mortality I would say we will just live with it. A modified vaccine is 100 days out and then the same delivery / production issues, so an argument to slow the spread to hit that target has some merit.
“While we know that life expectancies at birth are lower in the US than some other developed countries, apparently life expectancy for the elderly (80+) is significantly greater in the US than in Sweden, France and Japan (P < 0.01 ). "
The cited paper is 1995. Things have changed.https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/u-s-life-expectancy-compare-countries/
Phil,
Much of the difference is due to substantially lower life expectancy among African Americans and recent immigrants from poorer countries (many but not all Hispanic). Part of this difference is murders of young (minority) men by other young (minority) men. The other important issue is a substantial rise in deaths among young to middle age Americans over the past 10 years due to drug overdoses, which have been made worse by rising fentanyl smuggling; this comes mainly over the southern border with Mexico.
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If you could make a comparison of comparable socio-economic groups in the USA and other developed countries, I suspect the differences in life expectancy would be small.
Phil,
See for example: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0091743519300787
Big differences in life expectancy due to socioeconomic level, even where there is universal single payer health care.
Tom Scharf
Back to nasal spray!! 🙂
Steve, I was only pointing out the figures (near bottom) for life expectancy over 80s, not life expectancy from birth. In 1995, this was definitely better in USA than say Sweden. Since then it seems that other countries have caught up – or if you look at the “cited by” section for the 1995 paper, USA has got worse.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31530961/ (2016) looks at this but said:
We find that the most plausible explanations involve the deleterious effects of differential smoking and obesity but we are unable to adjudicate more precisely if either of these independently or in combination explain the phenomenon.
The early evidence on Omicron:
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/the-omicron-situation
Another big dump of omicron info for experienced commentator including his predictions.
https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2021/11/29/omicron-variant-post-2/#more-22763
” If Omicron only results in mild infections, we should welcome our new Omicron overlords as opposed to imposing new restrictions. However, it’s way too early for that, and the cohorts involved seem like they were younger and healthier.”
“Similarly, notice rhetoric where lockdowns are punishments for non-compliant populations who have sinned against public health, rather than a tool to accomplish a goal. “
Tom Scharf (Comment #207705)
“The rapid rise in South Africa of this variant is the main cause for concern but apparently they started with very low numbers so that might be part of the issue.”
I think the rapid rise in numbers from very low numbers is also true for every Covid strain we have had and therefore is not necessarily anything new or alarming.
It is just part of how common cold viruses replicate normally.
[By the way has anyone had a real normal cold in the last year? they seem to have disappeared]
Rudd Istvan did a couple of posts early on on covid which are still correct today.
Covid has mutations with every successful infection.
But in several billion replications the overwhelming majority are true to type.
There were over 30,000 recognized variations in just 6-8 months so 50 mutations is kind of ho hum, expected, boring.
Looks like one of the mutations survives and got to be the main spreading force in that party of Africa?
1, 5, 25, 150, 700 …500,000. probably only took 6 months at a rate of 5-6 doubling.
Rudd says most mutations are less lethal.
This is generally very true or none of us would be here now.
Not totally true, smallpox for example and if a species was wiped out by a virus in the past who would know.
But, hey, we are here.
I guess a new mutation might pick up a few people who were resistant to the previous strain but overall it is spreading into an already vaccinated or infected population and so has a much smaller target audience.
PS DeWitt, get better and stay better, please. You are an inspiration, best of luck.
angech
The first sentences by Rudd is meaningless. Most mutations are “less lethal” than what? Smallpox? Plague?
Obviously there are mutations that make a virus go from less lethal to more lethal and vice versa. At the time of mutation, I don’t think there is any “tendency” for a mutation to go either way. It’s just a crap shoot. I’ve seen no argument to support the bald claim “most mutations are less lethal”.
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To test the “theory” these “it gets less lethal” guys have concocted we’d need evidence, and we have very little. What we have is based on history because we didn’t have DNA evidence in the past.
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History suggest the Spanish Flu went from less lethal to more lethal during the course of the epidemic. (Some think this is because the more ills were taken out of trenches to the hospital where they passed it on. So there was positive selection pressure toward the more virulent strains. )
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DNA people who dig up corpses also think smallpox may have had a lethal form and mutated to the horror it became.
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We know the selective pressure for survival and reproduction favors transmissibility. That tells us very little about lethality especially in the short run. (And the pandemic is the short run. Killing off the entire population is the “long run” for something sufficiently lethal.)
Lethality is nearly orthogonal to transmissibility. The only thing that ‘guides’ viral evolution is transmission. Seems to me the only plausible influence of lethality on genetic evolution is that very rapid fatality could reduce transmission… since dead people don’t get around much. Even very rapid development of symptomatic illness would seen disadvantageous to transmission. Covid 19 is only ‘uniquely lethal’ because the most vulnerable had never been exposed when they were less vulnerable. Survivors have significant resistance post infection.
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If covid 19 become globally endemic, as now seems likely, people will go through life with multiple exposures and multiple (mostly mild) illnesses, and the population will have strong background resistance.
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The virus will no doubt evolve to maintain some transmission, but like flu, only the most vulnerable (mainly elderly) are likely to suffer serious illness. The development of effective oral anti-virals should (fingers crossed) eliminate most of the serious illness associated with covid…. and just maybe eliminate other serious RNA virus illnesses. Approve the antivirals, get them out to pharmacies, declare victory, and move on. Imagine the benefit of taking some pills for four days instead of suffering 10 days of miserable flu.
My understanding is that the rapid tests, either at home or elsewhere, test for antigens, not the virus or its parts. A positive test means you are likely at the contagious stage. So a negative result doesn’t mean you haven’t been infected.
When I was tested before going to the hospital, the swabbing was just the nostrils, not deep into the sinuses, so it wasn’t anywhere near as bad. In the hospital, there was a nasal swab thing they gave me to sanitize my nostrils. It smelled vaguely like oranges. It was one of those things where you crushed a vial and squeezed the liquid into the tip before swabbing. That was new to me.
With an abdominal incision, you really, really, don’t want to cough or sneeze.
An antigen is simply something which binds to an antibody. The rapid tests use antibodies to detect covid surface coat proteins. It’s probably a similar setup to the pregnancy test.
From an editorial today in the WSJ:
No citation provided. If that’s true, then vaccine mandates are completely unnecessary. We’re as done as we’re going to get.
DeWitt,
“We’re as done as we’re going to get.”
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Yes, from a practical POV, but the left never stops and never compromises. The political fight over vaccine mandates will continue until either the SC stops it or the left gets to force everyone to be vaccinated.
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At least two district judges have now ruled differently in cases about the health care worker vaccine mandates. Dueling district courts (and likely dueling appeals courts) are not good for the law. Sounds like the correct time for the SC to step in and resolve the issue. Either the Biden administration has the authority to order mandates or it does not. The longer the battle goes on, the more costly (socially and politically) it becomes.
SteveF (Comment #207720): “At least two district judges have now ruled differently in cases about the health care worker vaccine mandates.”
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From what I have seen, the Florida judge did not rule on the legality of the CMS mandate. She just refused to grant an injunction on the grounds that the state did not demonstrate that harm would occur. Sounds to me like a hair splitting way of letting an illegal action stand.
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Technically, all the Missouri court did was to grant an injunction, without ruling on the legality of the mandate. But part of the reason for doing so was the the case was very likely to succeed on its merits.
DeWitt’s post about swabbing for Covid-19 testing reminded me of my aversion to invasive medical procedures involving my body parts. It is never the pain part just the invasion part, and more to the point, thinking about and anticipating the invasion. I have prided myself in reasoning through issues like these to put my mind at ease, but I never have completely overcome my reactions to these procedures and particularly to the first time they occur.
I was particularly sensitive about my eyes being touched, but when you have glaucoma, they get touched a lot and I did overcome that aversion to the point when I had cataract surgery it was not a big deal. I thought that the most invasive procedure for me would be an angiogram and thus when the time came for me to have one, I spent time thinking about how I could make it an out-of-body experience. When I was laying on the table for the procedure with my eyes closed the room was at a very low temperature and I could not figure out whether my trembling was from cold or fear of the unknown. Either way I could not think about anything but the moment. Just when I thought the procedure was taking too long to get started the doctor asked me to look at the monitor so we could discuss my upcoming bypass surgery.
I posted my experiences not to bore some of you but rather to elicit how you handle these procedures. My wife was a real champion in these situations with her own procedures and I never really discussed my reactions with her for fear she would think she married a big baby. If someone told me that my anticipation anxiety in these situations was silly and a waste of time, I would have to agree.
My swabbing experience yesterday actually had little anticipation but sitting on my hands with my eyes closed was a more dramatic reaction than the two gentleman who were tested ahead of me. The swabbing was with lengthy whatever you call the handles on the swabs and I could feel the pressure and was thinking at the time how many swirls were necessary to get a good sample. I felt better when the gentleman ahead of me who appeared to have no reactions during his swabbing say to me as he left “I hate these damned testsâ€.
SteveF (Comment #207720)
The issue with mandates and the Supreme Court, I think, will be whether the executive branch of the Federal government can impose vaccinations mandates – kind of like abortions and Roe v Wade. That, of course, would not prevent states from making the same impositions just as they have been doing all along during the pandemic and with little judicial restraint or boundaries.
Kenneth,
“That, of course, would not prevent states from making the same impositions just as they have been doing all along during the pandemic and with little judicial restraint or boundaries.”
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Yes, the SC has shown very little inclination to interfere with blue states that trample on personal liberties. But at least red states will not do that…. if the SC stops Biden from imposing vaccine mandates.
Kenneth Fritsch (Comment #207723): “The issue with mandates and the Supreme Court, I think, will be whether the executive branch of the Federal government can impose vaccinations mandates – kind of like abortions and Roe v Wade.”
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But those two things are nothing alike. The federal government never had any laws on abortion. Before Roe v Wade, it was entirely up to the states. SCOTUS then found invisible ink in the Constitution that limited what states could decide.
Yes, Mike M., there is the issue of mandates from the executive branch versus laws from the legislative branch, whether that be state or federal. Without judicial and Constitutional restraints a continuum of emergencies and mandates could disappear all individual rights. I would like to hear a judicial entity consider this development.
It seems that a federal judge in Delaware has issued a nationwide injunction against Biden’s CMS vaccine mandate.
Mike M,
That is a positive development; we will see how it plays out, but I really think the SC needs to step in and make a determination. The situation right now is nutty. The Biden administration sees laws as impediments to the policies they want to adopt (remember the unlawful ban on evictions). Just like the Obama administration, this administration is blatantly, willfully unlawful in many of its regulations and executive orders. With the current ideological balance on the SC, this unlawfulness may well come back to bite the Biden administration.
The DeSantis administration and the parent groups that had been fighting over school mask mandates have agreed to jointly ask the court of appeals hearing case to drop the case as moot, because new laws passed by the legislature a week ago explicitly prohibit school boards from enacting mask mandates or vaccine mandates, and require that all public schools follow rules issued by the state department of health.
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Mask prohibitions also apply to all state and local government agencies, and the new laws further prohibited FL government agencies at any level from requiring employees to be vaccinated as a condition of employment. Private businesses are allowed to require vaccinations, but only if they also allow opt-out due to a previous infection, religious exemptions, and a regular testing alternative (at employer’s expense, and few employers will pay for that). Unless mask mandates under OSHA are upheld, there will be no further mask or vaccine mandates in Florida.
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Of course, individuals in Florida can wear masks if they want. But they could always do that.
While the “Freedom Lug Nuts†are touting DeSantis for the current low Florida Covid case rates, they fail to mention that he did it by culling the herd. To-date the CDC says 61,500 of us have died due to Covid…… over 40,000 Floridians died in just the past twelve months. While the weak and vulnerable were dying, DeSantis was using the full might of the State Government to prohibit local governments and school boards from enacting best management practices to contain the spread of the virus.
Russell Klier,
The death rate per million in FL is ninth in the US and not all that far above the US average, FL 2,865/million, USA 2,426/million. Florida has far and away the highest fraction of elderly in the US, the population most at risk of dying from COVID-19. All things considered, Florida has done quite well. Certainly better than New York and New Jersey.
You might have missed it because everyone is ignoring it, but this week’s “trial of the century” is the Jessie Smollett case which thankfully did make it to court.
https://www.nationalreview.com/news/defense-argues-jussie-smolletts-attackers-motivated-by-homophobia-in-flailing-cross-examination/
Lucia
“Rudd says most mutations are less lethal.
This is generally very true or none of us would be here now.
The first sentences by Rudd is meaningless.
Most mutations are “less lethal†than what? Smallpox? Plague?
Obviously there are mutations that make a virus go from less lethal to more lethal and vice versa. At the time of mutation, I don’t think there is any “tendency†for a mutation to go either way. It’s just a crap shoot. I’ve seen no argument to support the bald claim “most mutations are less lethalâ€.
I was trying to give a view on the development of a new strain of the covid virus, Which Rudd had written about twice in very good posts at JC.
They would be accessible, if anyone wanted to read them by putting in Rudd, covid and JC’s blog.
In them he was talking about the development of mutations in the Covid virus and how it might pan out from the perspective of someone who had been involved with other viral replication issues.
I cannot put it as eloquently as he did but the basic concept is that mismatches in replication do occur with moderate frequency.
Understandably if one is painting a Renoir and the poppies suddenly appear yellow it might be a stroke of genius [well it’s always that in his case] but it would usually diminish the value of the picture.
In this sense the likelihood of a mutation causing no problem is high [stays red], the likelihood that it would might be yellow [less lethal] is high and the likelihood that it would be more lethal is low.
The reasoning behind this is that it is a very specific links that allows it to transmit readily and to kill easily and most times a change is made that has an effect it would be to reduce the transmissability or infectivity.
This is just the theory of genetics and natural selection at work.
Hence it is not a crap shoot. The odds are much higher that either nothing or less trouble will result with any particular mutation or run of mutations.
The virus makes billions of reproductions, the mechanisms of error
occur frequently enough that the new viruses are not all the same.
Once a new viral particle is produced it will either replicate or perish.
Each human being or animal it goes through allows erros to accumulate.
The number of errors is massive over time.
Multiple errors occur through multiple replications.’They can be traced back in time as only the current viable viruses replicate.
Something with 50 mutations did not occur in one single setting or at one single time [most likely].
If one looks at Delta or omicron you can trace it back to where the variation first became prevalent.
I am trying to present a scientific view as best my understanding allows me.
I am fairly confident that my comments are considered and worthwhile and are verifiable on the medical and viral subject raised.
“Data from South Africa’s National Institute for Communicable Diseases show how the new variant over the past two weeks quickly crowded out the highly transmissible Delta variant. It now makes up around 90% of infections in the country’s most populous province, home to its political and economic capitals of Pretoria and Johannesburg.”
What is missing here is that the new variant is still Delta virus [most likely] with 50 mutations.
Hence still dangerous. Still susceptible to vaccines.
Unless proven otherwise.
Obviously there are mutations that make a virus go from less lethal to more lethal and vice versa.
I presume a crap shoot means luck of the draw or 50/50
The odds are much higher that mutations will either cause no problem or lead to less lethality The more of them you have the more less lethal varieties should arise.
angech,
You haven’t stated (at least not at all clearly) why a mutation making the virus less lethal is more probable than one making it more lethal. I just don’t see any push either way…… the virus is always under selection pressure to become more transmissive, but not change in lethality.
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Please state, as clearly as possible, what selective pressure would favor lower lethality over higher.
DeWitt,
Yes, age adjusted rates of covid death would show Florida’s rate as much lower than the unadjusted rate. Florida has a third higher fraction of the population over 65 compared to all of the USA, and up to 90% higher than some states. For example, FL has 50% more people (per million) over 65 than California, so a rough estimate of an age adjusted comparison: Florida: 2,865 per million, California: 2,837 per million. The real difference is that the government of California has caused much more economic and social damage (eg destroyed businesses, disrupted education), not to mention reduced personal liberty, to end up at just about the same place in terms of deaths of elderly people from covid.
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History will not be kind about how the mindless covid panic led to terrible, counterproductive, destructive public policy choices by those on the left. Of course, counterproductive and destructive is pretty much the only kind of public policy the left adopts, independent of issue.
angech
If you think it’s a persuasive post, you should link it. I, personally, have never been impressed by Rudd’s thoughts.
Well… analogies can be great for elucidating when they happen to be describing something true. But there is no reason to think a virus is “like” a Renoir, nor is there any reason to think the poppie being any particular color is “more lethal” nor “less lethal”. This isn’t even an argument. It’s like reading some pastors sermon about “something”!
I’m guessing this is not “like” Newton’s law of gravitation or Rudd would give a link to a biology or evolution text that explained this has been observed.
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You don’t know this. Argument by “color of poppies in Renoir” is not science!
angech,
BTW, even discussing Renoir is now frowned upon in most polite company; the woke have determined that his too-many nudes of chubby women make him an unmitigated sexist who should be reviled and then forgotten. The left wants to destroy all of human history, even art history.
angech (Comment #207736): “Rudd says most mutations are less lethal. This is generally very true or none of us would be here now.”
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That makes no sense. Zebras have not gone extinct, but I am pretty sure that does mean that lions are evolving to be less lethal.
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You seem to think that deleterious mutations accumulate. They don’t, under normal circumstances. Mutations that reduce fitness get selected out, ones that increase fitness get selected for. Increases in transmissibility would be the latter. I don’t see why changes in lethality would be either since the virus does not care if we live or die. So at least for now, I am with SteveF (Comment #207738) on that point.
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It is often claimed that pathogens evolve to become less lethal over time. I have never seen either a coherent explanation of why that should be so or convincing evidence that it is so.
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On the other hand, there is a clear reason why *we* should evolve to make viruses less lethal. But that takes a long time.
—————–
Addition: Or maybe it does not take so long. I just remembered an earlier post by lucia:
http://rankexploits.com/musings/2021/lingering-dead-virus-makes-natural-vaccine/
I never really looked at the article she linked, but I am going to now. Maybe it provides an explanation for why pathogens seem to become less lethal with time.
MikeM
The only way I see for increased lethality to be selected against would be if the mutation resulted in the virus killing before someone could transmit and they could no longer transmit after death. OR, if it was so lethal and transmissible that 100% of host population either died gained sterilizing immunity. In that case: the virus would die off because there would be no one to catch it and no host in which it could live.
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There is a huge distance between Covid and that behavior.
(1) It’s lethal to some, but many don’t even get symptoms. The death rate is bad enough to worry about getting it, but this isn’t smallpox or worse. The idea that it’s somehow ‘too near’ some ‘lethality’ threshold that makes a mutation to ‘less lethal’ likely strikes me as wishful thinking. (If we were to argue by “poppie” colors, red and yellow aren’t even the only choices. It could go violet, green, blue, orange… whatever. We don’t know how lethal those other color choices are in the wishful-thinking-artistic analogy. I guess Rudd could just deem them ‘less lethal’. It’s his dream; he can pick whatever he likes in his analogy.)
(2) It appears those without symptoms can still transmit Covid. They aren’t transmitting a weaker version virus that doesn’t infect. They are transmitting the same dang virus. They don’t appear to transmit more or for a longer period. (Maybe they do, but we have no evidence.)
(3) The existing Covid viruses are not racing through and killing off all the hosts (us). There appear to be plenty of remaining hosts around in pockets to allow the virus and mutations to find new hosts.
But in anycase, the “idea” that viruses mutate to less virulent seems to be absolute speculation. I haven’t read Rudd’s essay (and won’t until at least tonight). But if the best argument is the Renoir-poppies dreamscape, then I would say there isn’t a good one. It’s such a bad argument it isn’t even worth engaging.
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We’ll see if Omicron is more or less deadly. I’m hoping for less. But we won’t know for a month.
>You haven’t stated (at least not at all clearly) why a mutation making the virus less lethal is more probable than one making it more lethal. I just don’t see any push either way…… the virus is always under selection pressure to become more transmissive, but not change in lethality.
If you were to optimize a virus for spread you would be optimizing the transmissibility, the length of time a host would be infectious , while minimizing the effect on hosts. That way an infected host can infect more people and those around the infected person would be less cautious. A more lethal variant reduces the amount of time a host can infect others and eventually drives changes in behavior in the population around the infected.
Mike M. (Comment #207728)
One of the SC issues should be whether the Biden mandates are unconstitutional because the Federal government does not have that authority. The Biden side will argue that by legislated regulation of the work place the designated regulating agency’s interpretation of their charter does give them the authority used in this case. That argument should give cover for the liberal justices and maybe even Roberts. The untested newer justices of the court become unknowns in my view.
There is this prevailing view that when the judicial choice is between unrelenting upholding of individual rights versus allowing governments to abrogate those freedoms to carry out its “essential†duties, the government gets the nod.
There is a further prevailing view that executive mandates/orders at the Federal and state level are judicially tolerated over legislative action with result that arbitrary judicial rulings on the mandates/orders become the new standard.
Finally, we have the issue of declarations of emergencies that allow suspension of individual rights which can bypass the legislative bodies, be invoked without any clear definition of what an emergency is and for an unbounded time limit.
It appears to me that these issues are examples of how a bigger and an ever-growing government requires more controls to operate and, if it is accepted that government must continue to grow and into all areas of human activity, the trampling of individual rights is inevitable with a construed Constitution used, at least for now, as a cover. Unless this tendency is changed in our thinking about government these SC decisions become mere hiccups in a trend.
AndrewP’s explanation makes some sense to me. Now if we can get a link to an authoritative view on the matter maybe these factors and how they operate will become clearer.
Obviously, viruses can mutate to more lethal forms. I believe the question here is the probability of mutating to a more lethal form and for a virus as lethal as Covid-19.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2021/07/14/fact-check-viruses-can-mutate-become-more-deadly/7839167002/
Andrew P (Comment #207744): “If you were to optimize a virus for spread you would be optimizing the transmissibility, the length of time a host would be infectious , while minimizing the effect on hosts. That way an infected host can infect more people and those around the infected person would be less cautious. A more lethal variant reduces the amount of time a host can infect others and eventually drives changes in behavior in the population around the infected.”
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That might make a difference if we were talking about 90% lethality vs. 50%. But it hardly matters if we are talking 10% vs 1% vs 0.1%.
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Furthermore, with the Wuhan virus there seems to be no link whatever between lethality and transmissibility. The virus is most transmissible around the time symptoms start. By the time someone is sick enough to be hospitalized, they are much less infectious.
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So as lucia says, they may be some circumstances where a virus can experience selective pressure to be less lethal. But that would seem to require a virus that is more lethal than smallpox. The Wuhan virus is not even close.
Kenneth,
I think the courts do give the executive the benefit of the doubt in cases of real emergency, unless the executive is a Republican, of course. The cases that will come to the SC are most certainly NOT about true emergencies, unless the court is willing to accept that emergencies can go on indefinitely and constitutional protections voided for as long as a president wants.
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The Biden mandates are, IMO, promulgation of laws that have not been authorized by Congress…. nor would Congress ever agree to them if asked. Which is why the Biden administration is trying to (improperly) use existing laws (like OSHA) to bypass working with Congress.
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The pandemic is now nothing like an emergency, as case rates, death rates, availability of vaccines, and (soon) availability of effective antiviral treatments all show. Mealy-mouth Rhino Roberts would almost certainly vote with the three socialists to let Biden’s mandates happen, but I think there is a very good chance the conservatives will not allow Biden unlimited authority to void the Constitution whenever he wants for as long as he wants.
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There is even a good chance the 6th circuit will stop the OSHA mandate and the SC will refuse to take up the case until long after the case is moot, or maybe not at all. Which would probably please Chief Justice Mealy-mouth…. not ruling on important issues of personal freedom is what he most likes to do.
AndrewP
Not necessarily. With Covid, people who are infected gain immunity. Once they are immune, they can’t infect others. WRT to selection pressure, host becoming immune in “N” days works the same as them dying “N” days.
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There is selective pressure against something killing you instantly before it can transmit. So viruses that act like quick acting poisons would tend to not transmit. But lethality doesn’t by itself cause any problem for the virus because lethality is generally not instant (and in fact, can’t be. The virus has to grow.)
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HIV untreated is highly lethal. It just takes a long time to kill you. It mutates a lot. We haven’t seen mutations to “less lethal” strains. The people who want to say there is some push toward less lethal have to show evidence it’s true — as we have plenty of counter evidence. And when just speculating, they need better theories than “poppies turn yellow in a painting”.
So I’m watching the Today show this morning by force majeure (happy wife and all that). Sandra Bullock is on talking about the Black child she adopted. Her worry is that her adopted son won’t love her as much because she isn’t part of his culture. OMG! Culture isn’t something you’re born with, unlike biological sex or skin, eye and hair color. The sheer idiocy is beyond belief. And of course all the hosts just nod their heads.
Now if an article in the WSJ ever needed a comment section and didn’t have it, this is it:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/nuclear-fusion-startup-lands-1-8-billion-as-investors-chase-star-power-11638334801?st=lrq51ivvamavu0l&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
And of course they repeat the canard that fusion power is radioactive waste free. Not if it’s D-T fusion. The last I heard is that in a commercial fusion reactor every atom in the reactor wall would be hit by at least ten neutrons. That says radioactive to me. The greens aren’t going to let you build one without endless litigation either, even if it does work.
But then again, people are throwing money at green and blue hydrogen too, with, IMO, miniscule probability of success.
DeWitt,
She is (and especially was) a very beautiful woman. But she is profoundly stupid. A lot of that going on among the Hollywood types.
Could not Sandra employ a person steeped in Black culture to raise her son for her? She could contain her guilt by knowing it was she who selected and employed this person. I do not see any other way out of this dilemma into which she has put herself.
Kenneth,
Sure, Sandra could find a single black mother with 4 other kids who lives in a dangerous part of town, and let that woman properly instill her adopted son with black culture. He could even attend a dangerous public school and get involved in criminal activities at a young age. The boy would no doubt suffer, but at least Sandra (the idiot) could feel better about herself. OTOH she could just care for the kid, love him, and teach him sensible values…. nah, that would be too simple.
Roe looks like toast. The five conservatives sounded pretty clear that Roe was wrongly decided. Back to the sate legislatures, where I think the question should have been all along
I’m pretty much a non-fan of Trump and have a really hard time seeing him as a victim of anything, but the media just keeps writing endless stories about him * and * continuously censoring him. It’s just unfair to not allow him to respond to these endless click bait articles. It’s possible for Trump to be a total jerk and also be treated unfairly simultaneously. I don’t really pay close attention and maybe Trump is self censoring, but I highly doubt that, ha ha. Nor am I pining for a return to the Trump 24/7 days. I don’t really care what Trump’s side of the story is personally, but I assume some people do and they should be able to get it.
The question is whether the genetic changes that increase survivability correlate with increased lethality or not. The answer I assume is “it very much depends and changes on a case by case basis”.
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One could imagine a change that increases the in body replication rate by 10x, this could increase transmissibility and quickly overwhelm the immune system and increase mortality.
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One could also imagine a change that stops the immune system from triggering a response and allows transmission to occur without any substantial danger to the host. Increased transmission with decreased mortality.
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I have no idea what the most common outcomes are but I agree that those making statements never back them up with actual data. Even if we had that data it probably has little to say specifically about covid other than the rule of thumb thing.
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What I suspect is that killing the host is probably a pretty difficult thing to do (relative to just increasing survivability) even if that was the explicit goal. The human body has a pretty sophisticated defense system. There have been very few very high mortality and very high transmission viruses evolve after about 100 bazillion quintillion megamillion googleplex viral genetic changes over the course of human history. So I vote for more likely to get less lethal over time but YMMV with covid. If common viruses trended toward more lethal we might be extinct a long time ago.
A lot to reply to and I do not want to be too verbose
Lucia
“HIV untreated is highly lethal. It just takes a long time to kill you. It mutates a lot. We haven’t seen mutations to “less lethal†strains. The people who want to say there is some push toward less lethal have to show evidence it’s true”
One article? I could try to find something more recent.
December 1, 2014;
Impact of HLA-driven HIV adaptation on virulence in populations of high HIV seroprevalence
A new study (abstract) from Oxford University shows HIV is weakening as it evolves in response to our immune system. When the virus encounters somebody with a particularly strong immune system, it sacrifices efficiency in replication to gradually overcome those defenses. This causes it to take more time for the infection to cause AIDS.You can see the ability to replicate is 10% lower in Botswana than South Africa and that’s quite exciting. We are observing evolution happening in front of us and it is surprising how quickly the process is happening. The virus is slowing down in its ability to cause disease and that will help contribute to elimination.” The average time from infection to the onset of AIDS has increased by 25% over the past 10 years.””
Tom Scharf (Comment #207758)
I have no idea what the most common outcomes are but I agree that those making statements never back them up with actual data.
SteveF (Comment #207738)
You haven’t stated (at least not at all clearly) why a mutation making the virus less lethal is more probable than one making it more lethal.
Lucia If you think it’s a persuasive post, you should link it.
Re the virus from Istvan
“‘ It is an enveloped non-segmented positive sense single strand RNA of about 30kb (the largest of any virus). The genome reads from the 5’ end. All living cells (the viral hosts) have evolved DNA copy error machinery, but not RNA copy error machinery. RNA based viruses will accumulate enormous ‘transcription’ errors with each budding. a single rhinovirus infected mucosal cell might produce 100000 HRV virion copies before budding”
Links Wuhan Coronavirus–a WUWT Scientific Commentary
February 10, 2020
Wuhan Coronavirus—WUWT Update
February 14, 2020
SteveF (Comment #207738)
“why [is] a mutation making the virus less lethal more probable than one making it more lethal. I just don’t see any push either way…… the virus is always under selection pressure to become more transmissive, but not change in lethality.”
If you can see a push to become more transmissible then you have already admitted a selection pressure can exist for that condition so by that logic there could well be a push for more or less lethality, even if you cannot see it in this instance since you could see it in the other.
Selection pressure is a term I am not happy with although I probably instigated it by saying lethality is likely to reduce.
Richard Dawkins termed evolution the blind watchmaker.
Evolution does not need pressure to occur though looking at it from the outside it is natural to ascribe terms like pressure and selection to the outcomes we see.
Both ascribe choice as seen from a human perspective whereas the outcomes are strictly mathematical.
My analogy here would be that of the shipwrecked sailors who called to god for help and were saved. The ones who called to god for help and still drowned are not there to tell the tale.
Similarly in evolution [through mutation] there is no pressure for change. The change occurs by chance.
The entity, the virus, like the human eye has got to where it is by millions or billions of mutations over a long period of time. It is functional and complete for its purpose of replication.
None the less it can go astray in replication.
It is not a crap game 50% more lethal, 50% less lethal.
It is a game of 94% no effect.
5% decreased reproducibility, transmissibility.
1% less lethality
.001% increased transmissibility
0.00001% increased lethality
The reasoning goes like this.
Increased lethality is a gain of function, a whole new ballgame,
It is like a lobster growing a human eye. It just does not happen by a single or multiple mutations in a gene It requires human intervention, species jumping, a miracle or many years of many changes.
It requires a new protein, a new gene and a target that is specifically sensitive to that new viral weapon.
It is the equivalent of village peasant pulling out a machine gun, with working bullets and mowing down
charging knights on horseback in medieval England.
On the other hand 5% decreased reproducibility, transmissibility.
1% less lethality are all easy to see outcomes of any of the proteins involved becoming disabled or not working properly.
A los of transmissability, though you might not appreciate it is a reduction in lethality for that virus. Its Ro is less it kills less people
Andrew P’s (Comment #207744) sums up some of those reasons.
Multiple examples exist of viruses becoming weaker with time and in laboratories.Polio vaccines were developed from attenuated viruses that occur over time.
Very few viruses improve the weapon they are using naturally and they only develop a new weapon by swapping with another virus or wit millions of mutations over a very long time.
angech,
I remain unconvinced. IIRC, polioviruses were attenuated by being forced to grow in a non-human host and so became much more fit for that host, and much less fit for humans. (Attenuated poliovirus protects much like cowpox protecting against smallpox). The poliovirus *did not* become less infective and less virulent in humans. Just like coronaviruses in bats become more infective in humans over time…. covid-19 delta is probably not a potent pathogen for bats. I do not know if the AIDS has become less lethal over time, but considering the routes of transmission, that virus has a better chance of spreading if the infected person lives for a very long time. AIDS and covid-19 are not two peas in a pod…. they are subject to different selective pressure to maximize transmissibility.
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I am quite aware that terminology here can be confusing, but I think it is clear what we are talking about when we use that term.
I don’t believe it is in any way related to lobsters growing human eyes. lobster eyes and yellow poppies do not in any way support your argument.
Angech,
https://www.pnas.org/content/111/50/E5393
(1) It says suggests. So they don’t have firm empirical evidence. Perhaps they do by now? (It’s 8 years since publication.) But that’s the right sort of paper for showing a HIV may be *evolving* to lower virulence over time. (Which is good if this is ever confirmed.)
(2) The way you have described it, Rud’s claim is not that viruses *evolve* to lower virulence, but that they preferentially mutates toward lower virulance. That paper definitely does not show that. It doesn’t show anything about the rate of a fresh or brand new mutation. Fresh, brand new mutation is what we would worry with Omicron.
If you have a link to Rud’ article, we might get a better idea of what he actually says or claims.
angech,
Can you provide links? All you need to do is cut and past the url in the browser!
Ok. I was able to google based on the citation.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/02/10/wuhan-coronavirus-a-wuwt-scientific-commentary/
It’s not at all clear you correctly related what Rud claimed. He definitely doesn’t make a prediction that Covid will mutate or evolve to less virulent. Nor did he claim that it’s the general tendency for all or most viruses. I’ll quote the most relevant bits
Here, Rud says what people here are telling you is possible:
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He doesn’t seem to say mutation to more virulent is likely. He says both are likely. Thats what we all told you makes sense to us. So if you think otherwise, this article by Rud seems to agee with us.
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On swine flu he alludes to selection pressure in that. case.
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As I said above: If it kills you fast and you can’t pass on, that would be selective pressure. That’s what he’s suggesting for Swine Flu. (Whether it’s accurate, I can’t say. ) But even if it is, that pressure would not appear to apply to Covid which is not that fatal and transmits before people have symptoms. Those who die and those who live infect pretty much the same number of people. (And selective pressure of “the dead don’t infect” doesn’t apply to many diseases– some of which are not virulent at all and mutate to virulent. Those need to be included if you are going to mame a bold cliam that mutation tends toward less virulant.)
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Continuuing with Rud: even with the selection pressure that might have existed, what saved the word from Swine Flu (acording to Rud) is
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So quick availability of vaccine and use is what prevented the pandemic. It wasn’t some magical tendency of things to mutate toward “less virulance” nor even selective pressure to evolve toward less virulent.
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Rud’s wandering post wanders, but it’s sort of fun to see this
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Wellllllll quarantine turned out to not necessarily be so effective overall. Partly because it’s just not possible once the virus has spread. Partly because this turned out to be airborn and air is shared in apartments in large buildings. And so on. Isolation works if you don’t share air and you can isolate people before they infect.
His “conclusions” are interesting. 🙂
Soem of these turned out true; some false. It did turn into a pandemic. We do have vaccines. (We may need new ones like for flu. But they still do exist.)
angech (Comment #207761) quoting Istvan Rudd: “All living cells (the viral hosts) have evolved DNA copy error machinery, but not RNA copy error machinery”.
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That is not correct. Many RNA viruses do have replication error checking. The coronaviruses are quite good at error checking and have mutation rates that are much small than rhinovirus.
In the same year as Angech’s AIDS study:
https://www.aidsmap.com/news/dec-2014/hiv-has-become-more-virulent-over-time-not-less-european-study-finds
So, one paper: got less virulent. One got more virulent.
These are not actually discussing whether mutation favors one or the other– it’s selective pressure. But it’s looking like “crap shoot” wins.
Angech
Perhaps Richard Dawkins is unaware that in statistical mechanics, honest to goodness physical “pressure” is, in some sense, mathematical. And by “in some sense” I mean the same sense as “selection pressure” is mathematical. So his “counter argument” that selection pressure is not really “pressure” is…. well…. odd. (At least to anyone who knows what “pressure” is.)
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I’m with you on most mutations have no (noticeable) effect. And that most are less adapated. (After all: the existing viruses exist because the were well adapted. That is : because of selection pressure. 🙂 )
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Lowered transmissibility being favored makes sense for the same reason: the existing viruses are dominated by those that are more transmissible because of very real selection pressure. So, random mutations are going to tend to be less adapted than existing that exist because they are adapted.
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But the 1% less lethal and 0.0000001% increased lethality look like made up numbers. (I don’t know if you made it up or Dawkins. It’s impossible to tell from the organization of your post. But if Dawkins is the source, you should cite where.)
Being lethal isn’t, itself, a “favorable” trait for the virus. It’s close to neutral. The only situtaiton where there is pressure against lethal is if lethality results in lower transmission. That would be as a result of selection pressure. But there isn’t any obvious direction in the link.
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Viruses aren’t trying to be a “weapon”. And “millioins of mutations over a long time” is irrelevant in a pandemic. Omicron is here. It’s happened. Yes, ancient corona virus evolved from whatever it was to Omicron over a long long time. But that doesn’t mean individual mutations favor “less lethal” especially not in the short term!
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Lucia, Ivermectin from your neck of the woods — wonder if you read about this:
“A man near death recovered from COVID-19 over the weekend after an Illinois court ordered the hospital to treat him with ivermectin….
DuPage County Judge Paul Fullerton ruled in favor of the Ng, and said that the risks of ivermectin, in this case, are minimal since the patient “is basically on his deathbed.â€
The hospital then attempted to stop [doc] Bain from treating the patient once it was discovered that he was not vaccinated – all health workers in Illinois must be vaccinated per executive order. Fullerton still sided in favor of treatment so long as Bain presented a negative COVID test.
Fox 32 reports that ivermectin was administered to “Ng from Nov. 8 through Nov. 12.â€
Ng’s attorney said the patient began to improve almost immediately, and he was released on Nov. 27.
Ng has fully recovered, the family said.”
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Should add that I am not saying that Ivermectin is a cureall, but it is wrong that Covid treatment is so politicized that people on their death beds can’t make their own choices. Maybe, Ivermectin might help 5 or 10% of patients. The CDC and FDA are so politicized that they have zero credibility and can’t be trusted. Well to remember that FDA in extremely dishonest and political post called Ivermectin an animal dewormer. https://justthenews.com/politics-po…overs-after-court-orders-ivermectin-treatment
JD Ohio,
I drive by the inverectin HQ when I go to lessons in Oak Brook!
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I’m not a big fan of invermectin, and I think the evidence for the many and sundry claims is dang weak.
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Honestly, I don’t quite understand why a hospital would go out of it’s way to stop a doctor from treating a patient already under his care because the doctor is unvaccinated. The hospitals position is just weird.
(I don’t see details about how the tried. I know they can’t yank his authority to write prescriptions. If the prescription is issued and filled, I imagine someone can slip the drug to him. I don’t know whether hospitals can block doctors from walking the floors- though I imagine they may be able to do that.)
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The judge’s ruling makes sense as a matter of law.
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I obviously don’t know if the Ivermectin cured him. But I”m not surprised his family and others who favor Ivermectin think so.
This Ivermectin story involves Edward/Elmhurst. I got my most recent covid tests at Edward/Elmhurst. It is definitely very near here.
I am militantly Pro-Life. The following is not presented in support of abortion but as a warning for society to prepare to be responsible and deal with the effects of its actions. My crystal ball [which has an excellent track record of predicting the future] says the following about states that dramatically reduce the number of abortions:
Large increase in the number of infants born to single mothers living on public support. These mothers do not want these babies and do not have the means to support them if they did.
Large increase in the number of infants left at Safe Haven facilities. These infants will outnumber the available adoption parents.
Many of these infants will have special needs because of poor prenatal care.
And most devastating of all is that in 18 years there will be a dramatic increase in the number of Democrat voters.
Lucia: “I obviously don’t know if the Ivermectin cured him. But Iâ€m not surprised his family and others who favor Ivermectin think so.”
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My response is pretty much what else would it be. He was on his death bed and improved almost immediately from time of first treatment.
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In any event, since the drug is safe, there is no reason not to prescribe it as a hail Mary.
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Analogous situation is me and my headaches. 20 years ago I noticed that severe headaches (not quite migraines) went away when I exercised. When I took a break from exercising they came back. As I get older, sometimes headaches creep back. When I up the exercise, they go away. Don’t know the medical reason for exercise curing my headaches, but 99.9% chance that it does and that it is not spurious chance that headaches go away when I exercise.
JD Ohio,
I think the other issue with the Ivermectin is what else are the doctors doing? We don’t know what treatment Ng was getting otherwise, and we don’t know if Ivermectin would be expected to interfere. Obviously, people who are offerred pretty much nothing are going to prefer “unproven-rumored” if they are otherwise on their deathbed”.
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My main objections to ivermectin are people who do order the horsepaste (and some do), self dose, and do so long term. (Some one on twitter enthusiatically DMed me, suggested I do this and gave me his notion of dosage based on scaling human weight to that of a horse. ) We don’t know if that has side effects. And we have a vaccine now!
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But with people like Joe Rogan taking it after being diagnosed and taking pills for humans…. Well. So? I get that he has a megaphone and in principle some people might avoid vaccines because they think “well, I’ll take Ivermectin”. But honestly, the people I know who are anti-vac were anti-vac before anyone was talking about Ivermectin. If they are over about 30, I totally disagree with their reasons for not taking the vaccine. If they are between 18-30… I think they would be wiser to take the vaccine. But… oh… well…
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But this has nothing to do with the whole “Ivermectin” debate.
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(And of course my “possible quack remedy of choice” is iota-carrageenan nasal spray. There is a commercial spray being launched btw. Does it work? dunno. But the evidence seems as good or better than for masks!)
Russel
I bet this prediction will not come true.
Many could mean any number over 20. 🙂
I’m suspect a largeigh fraction will have poor prenatal care.I’m not sure that will always translate into “special needs”. I guess it depends what you mean by “poor”. If you mean: Mothers were crack addicts, the will probably be special needs. If you mean mothers were young and didn’t see an obstetrician monthly, most of those babies won’t be what I call “special needs”. The majority of “poor prenatal care” will be the latter, not the former.
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Older women who carry babies they didn’t want to term will likely still get fairly good prenatal care.
JD Ohio,
The article doesn’t tell us what other treatment he got and I don’t know turn around times for other treatments. Suppose he got something 24 hours before he got the Ivermectin, but that treatment takes a while to kick in. It could be that. I don’t have enough info to say. The hospital is, of course, silent about “their side” and will continue to be because they are bound by confidentiality.
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But, for sure, if I was the family, I’d think it was the Ivermectin. I don’t really blame people for thinking it was. But really, we don’t know.
That’s my view. I suspect it was the judge’s view. The case for forbidding it just isn’t strong.
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My crustacean allergy or sensitivity is similar to your exercise issue. Everytime I’ve eaten shrimp, lobster or crab the following occurs: About 2 hours later, I break out in a sweat. I feel awful for an hour or so. Then I vomit up everything I’ve eaten. My diagnosis: I have a crustacean allergy or sensitivity or whatever.
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I have not confirmed this by any formal tests. I don’t think it’s urgent to do so.
Lucia “poor prenatal care†was my polite euphemism for drug and alcohol addiction.
Russel,
I doubt the majority of women having abortions have drug or alcohol addition:
https://prochoice.org/wp-content/uploads/women_who_have_abortions.pdf
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That profile makes sense for mostly youngish, and quite a few in college. Pregnancy will be a sigificant financial, professional and personal burden for them. That’s why they have abortions. But they aren’t all drug addicts!
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I had sex in college. I could have gotten pregnant. I knew a few students in engineering who did get pregnant. I know some guys whose girlfriends got pregnant. Some had the kid.
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They often didn’t have parental support. So low income? Yeahhhhh!.
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They weren’t addicted to drugs or alcohol. They just got pregnant.
lucia, You wrote “I doubt the majority of women having abortions have drug or alcohol addition” I didn’t say that. I said “Large increase in the number of infants left at Safe Haven facilities… Many of these infants will have special needs because of poor prenatal care.” These are the babies I think are at risk. It is a subset of my comment “Large increase in the number of infants born to single mothers living on public support”, which itself is a subset of all women having abortions. In addition, I think the college girls and middle class working women will have other options. Early family intervention and religious adoption services comes to mind as well as abortion tourism.
Russel
And I pointed out that it’s hard to debate “many” because as few as 20 could be considered “many”. So I ma discussing proportions, not “many”. I’m not saying you said it– in fact, I made it quite clear that I’m talking about proportions, not “many” or “few”.
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After they are pregnant? Once you are pregant, your option is generally either having the baby or an abortion. Or perhaps throwing yourself down the stairs? If you can suggest what other options they have, let me know!
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I’m not sure what you think “early family intervention” is. But once you are pregnant you are pregnant. “Early family intervention” doesn’t make you pregnant unless they find you an abortion!
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Adoption services (religious or otherwise) are options for pregnant women who don’t have an abortion. They are options for young impoverished non-college going pregnant women too. But those options aren’t leaving a kid in a save haven or having a special needs baby!
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I’m just doubt that we are going to see large increases in the proportion of “special needs” babies born, or even a large increase in babies left in safe havens. Just because a pregnancy wasn’t wanted doesn’t mean the woman will initially keep the baby, get frustrated and drop it off at a “safe haven”. And a high proportion of those having the baby will not not be addicted to crack or have alcohol problems. They will be young women whose birth control failed, who had difficulties (for whatever reason) getting an abortion, and who will consequently spend a number of uncomfortable months pregnant and then give birth.
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Lots of college age women (in and out of college) have sex, can get pregnant. Some of them will get pregnant. Some will be unable to get an abortion.
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Adoption may become easier for people who want to adopt. It’s quite difficult due to the dearth of adoptable babies. (I don’t think fixing that lack is a good argument for making abortion illegal. I’ve rarely heard anyone advance it as a reason to make it illegal, but it might very well be a result.)
Lucia, my concerns are strictly limited to the babies of single mothers living on public support. These kids have almost no chance now and it will be worse if their mothers have more children. Our society needs to realize there will be an increase in the numbers of these needy kids and must be prepared for it. The tragic cycle of these kids growing into single mothers themselves is bad for society….. even worse is the number of these kids that grow up to be career criminals. The current system is broken and fewer abortions will result in more indigent babies. This is not a post of support for abortion. I remain Pro-Life.
Lucia
Yes the mathematics imposes conditions, probabilities that can be considered as pressure.
Weight of numbers if I try to be humorous about it.
The concept of pressure though can be to force something to occur, often by design whereas statistically there is no pressure that dictates any single choice has to end up in the probability layer that it ends up in.
Yes my figures on the unlikelihood of certain events was a result of my conjecture.
I could have added a few more zeros and still have been well in the ballpark.
Dawkins point, and mine was that something as complex as the human eye cannot develop overnight or out of place (SteveF).
This idea is so impossible, the odds are so remote that people had to invent god to explain the creation of life
Before the concept of evolution which requires mutations and time.
Lots of both.
Evolutionary pressure is a misnomer unless one thinks that every living form is the best shape and function that it can exist in.
Rather it is a bit, I imagine, like Dr Moreau.
Misshapen, built in ageing, a never ending experiment of life.
We, and the viruses, end up not as the fittest but the luckiest in the race
I’m not militantly pro-life. Like many (I suspect most) I support optional first trimester abortion. Alabama will quite possibly outlaw abortion except for rare edge cases, which I think will do more harm than good. Still, I don’t have an issue with the SC overturning Roe.
We have a virus in Australia that causes a nasty facial cancer in Tasmanian Devils that is both sickening and lethal.
The number of Tasmanian devils has fallen and the only solution is isolation and lockdown.
Shades of Covid.
The population might, conceivably be wiped out.
We have a New Zealand apple tree virus called Fireblight which wipes orchards if it gets away.
The point I am making is that if viruses normally develop increasing lethality in time neither the viruses or their vehicles could exist.
Since we do exist, last time I checked, the conclusion is that increasing lethality is not a usual or likely outcome of viral mutation.
It is bad for the host and bad for the virus.
Very basic argument full of holes no doubt.
Angech,
I think there is a significant difference between rejecting the speculation that viruses tend to mutate or evolve into less deadly variants and accepting the speculation that viruses tend to mutate or evolve into more deadly variants.
If somebody here has been arguing that viruses tend to become more lethal over time, I missed it. I’m pretty sure Lucia said up above … hang on I’ll find it and quote her…
Doesn’t sound to me like she thinks that viruses normally increase in lethality.
angech (Comment #207789): “We have a virus in Australia …”
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Devil facial tumor disease is not due to a virus. It is not even due to a conventional pathogen. Fire Blight is due to a bacterium.
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Really deadly pathogens are often ones that are introduced to new populations that have no resistance. Chestnut blight (a fungu) has nearly wiped out the American chestnut. It was imported from East Asia, where chestnut trees are resistant.
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angech: “The point I am making is that if viruses normally develop increasing lethality in time neither the viruses or their vehicles could exist.”
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Nobody is claiming increasing lethality as the norm. The question is whether decreasing virulance is somehow built in.
I had not thought much about the implications of the discussion here about the chances of a new and spreading virus variant being both more highly infectious than its ancestors and also more lethal and whether these two variables can be related or at least related at the level of infectiousness and lethality of the Covid-19 virus ancestors.
The linked excerpt below on virus mutations is from a blog claiming its information comes only from experts and says this about mutations:
My interpretation of that excerpt is that it is the rare exceptions of mutations that we finally see (and name?) and only a few of these that probably get much attention from the observers. It would be these few that we eventually measure for capabilities to transmit and kill. The virus would have to have some threshold transmission capability before we would be aware of its kill factor. I think the above excerpt uses the term advantage to mean transmission capability and does not directly deal with mutations that change the kill factor. I have to assume that those mutations would occur in much the same fashion as those for transmission.
The combination of mutations changing transmission capabilities and the kill factor that get noticed would appear to be the result of random mutations that are independent of one another. My brief reading of the literature indicates that these mutations are almost entirely random. As already mentioned, killing the infected host fast and/or somewhere near completely would quickly cause that virus to die out. A very infectious virus without an extremely high kill factor could without vaccinations and a high level of mitigations immunize nearly the entire population against its spread.
That seems to leave the question at hand for a virus like Covid-19 tied exclusively to the environment wherein mutated variants best survive, i.e. the selection process.
That process does seem to present a more complicated model for a virus that has a different kill factor depending on age and compromising conditions of its potential victims and transmission rates that can depend on a number of environmental factors. Since the question here is about Covid-19 and all its variants the coexistence of several variants over a period of time where the environment can change significantly (including vaccinations) becomes another complication. I would also intuitively think that the longer the infection endures and the more people that are infected the more likely that the combination of a higher kill factor combined with a higher transmission capability in a mutation could occur. On the other hand, so could a mutation with a higher transmission capability in combination with a much lower kill factor occur.
None of my suppositions about selection and environment appear to me to make the kill factor and transmission capability relate to a large degree for a virus like Covid-19. My first thought was that Bayesian modelling that took account of the mutation and selection processes was a likely candidate for analyzing the factors involved in these processes. Googling verified that to be the case. I have not read any of these studies to date, but I would guess that they will not shed much light on the question at hand here.
https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-variants-are-they-really-more-deadly-heres-what-scientists-know-so-far-153921
angech
Of course at the micro-scale there is no “pressure”. It’s a continuum concept. That doesn’t mean there isn’t pressure! That’s precisely the case in “physics and engineering” pressure. The analog with evolutionary pressure is extremely good.
I seriously doubt your made up numbers are correct. Thanks for confirming they are just numbers you made up.
No one here is under the impression the human eye can develop overnight. So I’m not sure why you wanted to make that point here.
Tons of text books, journal articles and so on use the concept and don’t seem to think it’s a “misnomer”. And no, “evolutionary pressure” does not imply every living form is the best shape and function that it can exist in. That’s just nonsense.
“Physics pressure” doesn’t imply that physical processese are the “best that an exist either!
“We have a New Zealand apple tree virus called Fireblight which wipes orchards if it gets away.”
Shades of “Wuhan” virus eh? Fireblight is not a NZ bacteria, it is believed to originate in North America but unfortunately we have it.
Lucia, You wrote “Once you are pregnant, your option is generally either having the baby or an abortion.â€
Yes, I sort of knew that…. I’ve had some experiences in that department. I was in the delivery room when one of our sons was born. During the new parent coaching sessions they said I would be there as an assistant…but all I can remember from the big occasion was shear terror. Once, I had to hurriedly drive my wife to the hospital in a blinding snowstorm. We dealt with the trauma of a surprise teenage pregnancy when one of our boys was away at college. We had help and kind assistance from the local Catholic Family Services. We know the emptiness that comes with losing a grandchild to miscarriage. But the very best experience I had was when I was the grandparent designated to babysit “big sister†when “little sister†was born. She was three and her unmitigated glee was contagious.
angech,
“Since we do exist, last time I checked, the conclusion is that increasing lethality is not a usual or likely outcome of viral mutation.”
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If you read up-thread, I think you will find several people have been saying exactly that. I said specifically that fatality is pretty much orthogonal to transmission. A virus (or any other pathogen) needs transmission to survive, in most cases (that is, short of extirpation of the host species) higher fatality is quite irrelevant in that it confers neither advantage nor disadvantage. But in most cases lower fatality also confers neither advantage nor disadvantage. There are probably a few cases (and AIDS may be one) where the chance of transmission between individuals is low and a very long period of infectivity (without fatality) confers advantage in transmission, but that seems the exception, not the rule.
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Diseases like polio and smallpox did not become less fatal over millennia. While changes in human population density and behavior increased the number of both cases and fatal cases, the responsible viruses didn’t suddenly become more fatal.
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In the case of covid-19, if you look at the ratio of cases to fatalities, even where there has been little vaccination, it would seem that the virus’s fatality has dropped. It hasn’t. Individuals who recover (and that means ~97-98% of a naïve population) are are much less likely to ever have a serious case and die from covid-19. Delta seems better able to re-infect immunized or recovered individuals, and this increased transmissibility is obviously advantageous. Delta’s fatality (or lack of it) confers neither advantage nor disadvantage, unless that is associated with increased transmission.
The mistake you are making is thinking if increased lethality is “not usual or likely” that decreased lethality is. Most mutations don’t affect lethality at all. Most are fatal to the virus itself— that new “variant” can’t transmit, kill or anything. It just vanishes “poof”!. Of the remaining, a large fraction have no discernable change in phenotype at all. Of the remaining: some change some function, but that may be neither transmission nor fatality.
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Only a very small fraction affect transmission or fatality in any way at all. But if the increase transmission a lot, and they are affecting humans or livestock, and they make either sick, we humans tend notices.
If they increase fatality enough to kill us we also notice.
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There is selective pressure toward transmission. Viruses whose offspring can replicate continue to do so– so pressure.
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Lethality? there is no direct selective pressure to that except in so much as it affects transmission! And, at least measured in the life-cycle of the disease, Covid transmits long before people die and is not fatal enough that transmission is going to matter.
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Anecdotal stories of Omicron continue to suggest mild symptoms. (I’ve read interesting speculation on how it accumulated so many mutations before getting detected and spreading. )
Russel,
And I’m guessing the parents were not drug addicts nor alcoholics!
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The reason I don’t expect your predictions about what will happen to come true is that where abortion does get outlawed, a fair fraction of the kids born will fall in this category.
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But we’ll see.
Fusion: getting 1.3 MJ from 1.9 MJ…but they argue “for the first time, exceeding energy absorbed by the fuel used to trigger it.” Progress, I suppose, but I’m not holding my breath on this leading to a practical energy alternative in my lifetime.
https://www.sciencealert.com/for-the-first-time-a-fusion-reaction-has-generated-more-energy-than-absorbed-by-the-fuel/amp
[Note laziness by the article writer in converting 100 million degrees Celsius to 180 million degrees Fahrenheit, ignoring the +32. 😉 ]
Lucia,
Not only will there not be a big increase in kids with developmental problems, I very much doubt there will be much change in the number of abortions at all. There will be more travel for abortions, but I will be very surprised if there is a significant overall reduction in abortions. Before Roe, several states allowed abortion (including NY). I had a couple of teen aged cousins who traveled to NY for an abortion. That sort of thing will resume if Roe and Casey are reversed, and I doubt much else.
Lucia, Abortion Tourism, Another black eye for Illinois… 12/2/21 WSJ: “As the Supreme Court weighs a case that could chip away at federal abortion protections under Roe v. Wade, providers in Illinois are preparing for a potential surge of patients.â€
And: “Planned Parenthood of Illinois said it is preparing to serve up to five times as many patients, depending on where patients choose to travel if federal protections are weakened.†https://www.wsj.com/articles/illinois-abortion-clinics-are-preparing-for-a-potential-post-roe-world-11638419374
HaroldW,
We know inertial confinement works. That’s how a thermonuclear bomb works. It’s just that the source of x-rays is a nuclear fission bomb rather than ~200 lasers. As I remember, inertial confinement experiments were originally done to test thermonuclear weapons design without testing an actual bomb. But like computational fluid dynamics and race car and airplane design, you still have to build and test an actual device.
The energy thing is also a huge joke. How much energy was used to generate the 1.9MJ laser pulse? I’m betting it’s at least an order of magnitude more than 1.9MJ, probably more like two.
And again, D-T fusion produces high energy neutrons. It’s still going to produce radioactive waste. Besides, many greens (possibly most) are simply anti-technology. They won’t let you build wind or solar farms or the transmission lines to transmit the power without endless litigation and environmental red tape.
Edit: Somewhere I have a link about a solar farm project that was cancelled because the transmission lines would have cost more than the solar farm. Wind and solar require a huge expansion of the grid.
DeWitt,
“The energy thing is also a huge joke.”
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Sure, but they need some kind of press release (with rapid arm waving) to lobby for ever greater funding. I doubt fusion of any type will become practical before 2100….. if ever. Hot neutron production is the issue that will keep it from happening.
SteveF,
Indeed. You have to capture all the energy from the hot neutrons to actually generate power. Good luck with that. There are fusion reactions that do not generate hot neutrons. But they all have serious problems.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aneutronic_fusion
Russel,
That’s a black eye for Illinois if you are militantly pro life. Others would consider that a plus for Illinois.
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I think abortion should be legal. It’s unfortunate, and one hopes it could be rare. But I think women should get to decide.
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I have no particular opinion on SCOTUS’s stepping in. I do think this is an important issue for women’s liberty. Not being able to make decisions about your own body is an imposition on liberty. So I do se it as possible to interpret impositions on liberty and so a problem under the 14th amendment. Others don’t see it that way.
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But if Scotus changes it’s mind on the constitutionality, I’d prefer that abortion remain legal and I would support politicians who want it to remain so. So I don’t consider Illinois keeping abortion legal a black eye. I have some friends who will.
8.39 am here
Mike M. (Comment #207791) Thank you for correcting me. You are right.
‘”Devil facial tumor disease is not due to a virus. It is not even due to a conventional pathogen. Fire Blight is due to a bacterium.”
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Mike M. (Comment #207768) re (Comment #207761) quoting Istvan Rudd: “All living cells (the viral hosts) have evolved DNA copy error machinery, but not RNA copy error machineryâ€..
That is not correct. Many RNA viruses do have replication error checking.”
Sorry, I think you have misread the quote, it was about the host cells, not the viruses.
The full article did talk about RNA viruses with and without the replication checking.
One of those subtle errors that seems wrong but actually enables the virus to survive better as the mutability confirmed [allowing transmission] overcomes the fact that a lot of the viral population is less fit!
Steve F
“If you read up-thread, I think you will find several people have been saying exactly that. I said specifically that fatality is pretty much orthogonal to transmission.”
Apart from everything else thank you for finally sorting out the meaning of orthogonal for me. I learn several new things a day. This word usage had always stumped me until now.
angech,
Knowing the significance of orthogonal in a vector space is one of the benefits of having to study the ‘calculus of vector functions’ for a semester… much more useful than muti-dimensional knot theory.
Regarding the Crumbleys:
I don’t find it chilling that the parents bought the kid a gun. I bought my fourteen year old a .22 rifle (the kid was 15 in the shootings). I wouldn’t have chosen a 9mm handgun for my relative novice kid, but whatever on that score.
I don’t find it chilling or disturbing that a mother and son went shooting together.
I don’t find it disturbing that the mom texted her kid telling him he needs to learn not to get caught searching for ammo on his cellphone at school.
The picture the kid drew was disturbing, and the shooting itself is a horrible nightmare tragedy. I grieve for all involved.
The parents aren’t guilty of involuntary homicide, in my view.
Funny that the white kid [with the Trump supporter Mom] is charged with terrorism and the Christmas parade massacre man was not.
There, I needed to say that.
The linked article below has a discussion covering the evolving less virulence arguments and exchanges posted here. It is under the heading “Getting nicer – or nastier”. It covers both sides of the argument and uses essentially same reasoning as was used here.
The key sentence in my view is:
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/how-viruses-evolve-180975343/
SteveF (Comment #207809)
Knowing the significance of orthogonal in a vector space is one of the benefits of having to study the ‘calculus of vector functions’ for a semester… much more useful than muti-dimensional knot theory.
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No argument there.
One of the interesting things in anything greater than 3 D is that the number of changes in the direction of new vectors after 2 preclude any overlap of increasing series..
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I remain indebted, I just did not appreciate the change in semantics from geography to real life before.
Another dump on Omicrom from zvi https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2021/12/02/omicron-post-3/
Begins with a amusing butchery of Biden’s speech, and a critique on travel restrictions.
The interesting stuff is the summaries of what is known. Interesting that Belgium and Germany confirm virus present before SA announcement. Even more interesting if they cant find links to Africa.
Ron DeSantis has proposed the establishment of a “well regulated militia” of armed private individuals in Florida to assist during public emergencies.
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The left has gone even more insane as a result.
angech,
“I just did not appreciate the change in semantics from geography to real life before.”
Geometry?
Phil,
Biden has dementia; his idiotic pronouncements would be funny save for all the damage they do. He is likely not more than 3 or 4 years from needing diapers, and I will be shocked if he serves his full term in office.
If Roe gets (unfortunately) overturned then I predict the only real effect will be the increased use of gasoline to get an abortion. Almost everyone lives pretty close to a state line that will allow abortion and there will be clinics built right near those state lines I assume. There is so much pro-choice momentum and funding out there that they will make it easy to get a free ride if necessary. I predict the number of abortions will barely change. Republicans will be punished if this happens.
There was a recent Xmas party in Norway, 120 people in a 80% vaccinated country with all staff vaccinated. Over 60 people caught covid over several hours, presumably mostly Omicron. No serious outcomes yet.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/omicron-cases-at-norway-christmas-party-provide-clues-on-new-variants-spread-11638554033
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They are thinking of an R of about 10 (!) at the moment. Hopefully it will be more mild, but realistically this is going to be a huge problem for nursing homes as it just can’t be kept out with that number and rather leaky vaccines. A political nightmare for Biden after he made some dumb statements.
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Vaccine updates are no doubt going to happen and we should hope (assume?) they will be effective. 3 months away and we likely have a least a month before it takes a big hold in the US. I read one report that said March before it is dominant but reading the tea leaves seems like it might be quicker than that. If R=10 we will all get covid sooner rather than later. It may have never been stoppable in hindsight.
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As an aside it will be a bit humorous to watch public health squirm if it turns out that natural immunity is more protective than the current vaccines, which may very well be the case. They don’t really need any more bad publicity at this point.
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On the bright side, the Cuomo brothers will have plenty of free time this Xmas!
Tom,
Yes. I read that. This might be extremely transmissible. I’m waiting to hear how sick those Norwegians get.
Geometry.
I must be overtired.
Having a holiday in aâ€Redwood†forest in Victoria Australia c1930
Massive tall straight things third time lucky after first 2 tries with family stopped by Covid lockdowns.
Do not understand the polls , Biden going up a little after severe falls.
See a strong possibility of a Harris presidency in 6 months
Tom Scharf,
“Republicans will be punished if this happens.”
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Maybe, but that is not certain. I think there is much support for early abortions (eg 15 weeks or less) most everywhere, but support for later abortions is not high except in some deep blue states.
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I don’t object to Roe because it allows abortions, I object to it because it undermines the Constitution and the separation of powers. Judges should not be making laws (nor should the executive…. like eviction prohibitions and vaccine mandates). I personally think abortion in the first trimester (15 weeks from last menstrual cycle) is something that all women should be able to choose without any interference at all.
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I agree that there will be very little difference in the number of abortions if Roe is overturned. Making “morning-after” pills more available could even reduce the number of abortion procedures. If erectile disfunction pills are easily available on-line, why not morning after pills? There seems to be no good medical reason.
angech
I think Biden’s polling declining with some “noise” is not remotely surprising. The man has dementia. It’s going to decline to some base level consisting of (1) people who will refuse to ever say they disapprove of a Democratic president and (2) people who strongly support Democrats and don’t really follow the news and so don’t see just how badly off he is.
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At some point, he will do something so stupendously obvious that even those in category (2) will see and peel away.
I think SteveF is correct re the politics of abortion. It ought to be none of the Supreme Court’s business. I expect that the Roberts Court will let the Mississippi law stand but stop short of an outright repudiation of Roe v Wade. Probably not logically sound but politically and judicially wise so as to allow laws to change rather than forcing a change. I think many states have dead laws on the books that might be reanimated by an outright repeal of Roe.
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Laws like the one in Mississippi (15 weeks?) will not likely hurt Republicans. The people who will get really mad are not voting Republican anyway. But if Republicans give in to the activists and start enacting complete bans, they may pay a price at the polls.
Lucia,
It is a weird situation with Biden. It was obvious to most people that he was declining long before the election, and he mostly hid (dangers of covid you know) during the campaign to not reinforce the image of that decline. But as his decline continues, at some point Democrats may see that he really can’t continue and want to have Kamala take over. Talk about going from the frying pan to the fire! She is so dumb that comparing her intellect to that of a box of rocks is an affront to rocks everywhere.
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If Biden resigns or is forced out via the 25th, then there will be lots of drama, but maybe no VP once he is gone… since confirmation of a replacement for Harris would require majority confirmation in both houses… not 50-50 in the Senate. If the Senate remains 50-50, I doubt Mitch McConnell would go along with giving the Democrats the tie-breaking vote again in the person of a new VP. Of course if the Senate were not 50-50, then a new VP would probably be confirmed quickly. But President Harris? Good grief.
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Even today I doubt Biden actually makes any decisions, and just does and signs what he is told to; it may be possible to keep him hidden enough from the press and public to get to January 2025. Woodrow Wilson stayed in office for almost two years even though he was badly debilitated; Biden’s wife and handlers may be able to rule by regency.
MikeM
Yea. I think people won’t get too upset at limiting the abortion to 15 weeks. Though, admittedly, I don’t know. I do know some people who are very militantly for keeping it legal with the tiniest impediments. I suspect most are in between “no abortion” and “yes, up to the last minute”.
In terms of sympathy for tight window, people are also going to consider how tight it is. The 15 weeks is effectively “less tight” than it was in the 70-80s.
The reality is that it has gotten much easier for a woman to confirm a pregnancy quickly relative to the 70s when Roe was decided. You can now walk to a pharmacy when you are worried you are pregnant. You can take a test about 1 week after the first missed period– so you are probably 3 weeks pregnant at this point. But some women are irregular, and there is some emotional stuff going on with unplanned pregnancies. So it’s not inconceivable they could be 8 weeks pregnant or so by the time they go get the test. Still, getting the test is easy these days.
The internet being what it is, now a days you can probably figure out the location of an abortion provider and easily schedule something inside the first 15 weeks of pregnancy. Some people might have transportation issues and so on, but even they can probably find a volunteer organization to help overcome that. If a woman knows she wants the abortion, she can almost certainly fit it in that 15 week window.
This wasn’t quite so in the 80s, you couldn’t just walk to the pharmacy and get a pregnancy test. You might have to wait for an appointment — some some young women might not have even had a regular MD. Some MD’s were pretty judgy about young women having sex. Yep. Judginess was something women dealt with in the 80s when getting birth control. I’m sure some MDs would have been closed mouth helping you find an abortion provider. If you hadn’t thought it out in advance. (Most women had probably heard of planned parenthood. But still, they might have made the mistake of going to someone else first.)
Without the internet a woman might find it difficult to find a provider and also find an organization to help her with transportation. Doesn’t mean she can’t ask friends. But parents might not be really helpful, and Catholic Charities isn’t going to drive you to the abortion provider!
And, of course, it’s likely something the woman doesn’t want to advertise widely. That would have made it more difficult to find something in a timely manner. And, of course, it’s likely you couldn’t just tell your professor or boss, “I need to miss class or work for an abortion. You understand, right?” So you would have had to fit the appointment into your life. 🙂
( I know I had not read up on where I could get a timely abortion or how much coin I should have around to fund it when I was in college! )
So, as a practical matter, 15 weeks was a tighter window back them. Granted, someone still has to make a decision and that can be emotionally fraught. But I think now-a-days, 15 weeks is entirely do-able. In the 80s, someone actually might have missed the window due to logistics. But now, the only reason to miss that window is because you don’t know you want the abortion. That’s a bit different.
Lucia,
“I know I had not read up on where I could get a timely abortion or how much coin I should have around to fund it when I was in college!”
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So I guess you were a virgin in college, like me. 😉
My sister called from college and asked me for a $400 emergency loan one time, she never told me why she needed it and I never asked her why …
SteveF,
Absolutely not!
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I was aware of the existence of Planned Parenthood and knew they provided abortions. I was pretty sure there would be one “around”. But I never specifically looked into the details of what it cost, where I would go, how long it would take blah, blah, blah. I suspect I was not atypical of college age women. Your plan is that pregnancy won’t happen. 🙂
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Mostly, I think I had a vague idea I would have the baby and put it up for adoption. Then I was very careful about birth control (which, of course, is no guarantee!!)
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Not sure what I actually would have done if I’d gotten pregnant. I didn’t, so I never had to face that decision.
“At some point, he will do something so stupendously obvious that even those in category (2) will see and peel away..”
President Pelosi is a third option.
Seems extremely unlikely an election can be overturned or run midterm so whoever is in if Joe departs gets to stay for the course.
Dementia would not seem to be an option for removal,There are enough helpers around to put the paper in the right place.
I think senility at the moment more than Alzheimers.
He has slowed down a lot in acuity but still can connect words and seem mostly logical, just occasionally confused.
Cardiovascular and cerebrovascular incidents are the main worry for the next 3 years.
His son is another major headache but with everyone so far in lockstep this should be papered over to the midterms.
Incidentally I think people should be careful at times what they put up about family members. I do mention mine from time to time, as do others, but always in a good light, otherwise I anonymize my comment?
angech
Perhaps it is just “senility”. But that’s exactly the way my Father and Mother-in-Law were. They has Alzheimer’s.
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As a US citizen worried about where our country is going, those aren’t my main worries. My main worry is that he will remain in office to ill effect. My next worry is Kamala.
angech
You’ll have to say why you think people should be “careful” or anonymize. My father and mother in law are both dead. Telling people they had Alzheimer’s is no harm to them or their reputation. It’s also no harm to anyone else. I don’t see any reason to “anonymize” that someone I knew very well had Alzheimers and that I could see what the symptoms are over time.
angech,
It’s highly unlikely that Brandon’s blood pressure is not under control. That drastically reduces the risk of cerebrovascular incidents like what probably turned my mothers cerebral cortex to mush rather than Alzheimers.
Senile dementia is not always Alzheimers. Somewhere in the range of 20 to 40% is probably not Alzheimers. I would like to know Brandon’s MMSE score from his last physical. I’m not holding my breath.
DeWitt,
You are right, there are multiple causes for dementia. Independent of cause, we can safely say Biden won’t be subbing for the teacher in an algebra 1 class. Hell, he won’t be subbing in a class on how to do long division.
Thrombotic emboli to the brain from atrial fibrillation is a cause of progressive dementia that can creep up on patients and doctors.
There can be symptoms of mini strokes, temporary loss of sight, slurring of words, face so arm weakness for instance that quickly resolves.
Numerous episodes over many months results in gradual loss of mentation. Can be missed as can be frequent but episodic.
Another is B12 deficiency.
He must have had a couple of 24 hour cardiac monitors for arrhythmia in the last year, unlikely in extreme that his doctors are negligent.
I would almost be inclined to strap him up with a permanent external monitor, or an Apple Watch as this would be the single most effective monitor to detect a number of potential heart problems as well as exclude AF (atrial fibrillation).
Aspirin as a preventative in general or off the aspirin onto warfarin if in AF.
Is he on warfarin?
SteveF/DeWitt/Angech,
The thing is: the underlying cause of Brandon’s dementia is not the important issue. It’s that he has dementia and that is rather obvious to people. He is not “leading” the country, his party or anything.
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We’ll see what happens between now and Jan 2025 (the new inauguration).
Lucia,
Of course the cause is less important than the (sad) reality. Still, as we are both aware from experience, Alzheimer’s is always progressive and seriously debilitating. So if Biden suffers from Alzheimer’s he will become gradually less competent, even dangerously so. I remain concerned that we will not have a competent, functioning executive between now and January 2025. Really bad things could happen. Kamala might be even worse.
.
One good thing is: no mean tweets at 2 AM…. Biden probably doesn’t know how to use a cell phone, and is is long ago asleep by then anyway.
Aren’t some forms of dementia variable? So, for instance, the victim might be reasonably acute in the morning, but get very confused late in the day (sundowning)? I have been guessing that is the case with Biden, which is how he managed to do OK in the debates last fall.
Kamala vs Trump 2024! A dream matchup. I’ll be moving to Canada then.
Mike M,
My observation was that in the early stages of Alzheimer’s, my father could sustain at least the appearance of normal under most circumstances…. at least for a while. When the situation required that he remember things accurately, or process a problem rationally, it became pretty easy to see that he had serious problems. Math? Impossible. I would like someone to ask Biden a few simple math problems…. things any normal person could do instantly in their head. I’m betting he could not answer even the simplest problem.
Tom Scharf,
“A dream matchup.”
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It seems our politics attracts some of the most dislikeable people in the country. I try to concentrate on differences in policies.
If the GOP nominates Trump for 2024, they deserve to lose AFAIC.
mark bofill,
Sure, the only potential candidate more unpopular than Biden is Trump. Worse, he will motivate voters to vote AGAINST him not for the other candidate….. which is why he lost last year. He is simply too offensive and too out of control.
Much discussion about the President’s mental state. Perhaps some good news for Uncle Joe?
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https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/could-viagra-reduce-alzheimers-risk
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We’ll have to see if Dr. Jill’s starts to look a little tired. ☺
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With the recent death of Bob Dole, it reminds me of Elizabeth Dole’s response when some media twits were trying to make hay of rumors that her husband was taking Viagra. She simply smiled and said with her wonderful Southern drawl “It’s a wonderful drug.”
My father is still good enough at 89 to live by himself, but he definitely has diminished capacity. He has a hard time participating in a conversation that requires back and forth quick responses. He can talk for 40 minutes straight though without interruption, the listening part needs a little work. If Biden can do town halls he is still there enough to get to the end of term. I never watch presidential speeches and public town halls (this is marketing, what they actually do matters), but when I watched him for 5 minutes it was obvious he was a bit slow. It is really only dangerous if he doesn’t know he is diminished. Whether he does or doesn’t we are unlikely to really know.
Tom Scharf (Comment #207845): “It is really only dangerous if he doesn’t know he is diminished.”
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To me it seems pretty dangerous if Putin and Xi know he is diminished.
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It is also dangerous for federal departments to figure they can do as they please, without regard for what the President thinks. Of course, they do that anyway, but with a diminished President, they are far less constrained.
Isn’t it really dangerous if everyone in the world knows he’s diminished yet we pretend he’s not? Nobody knows who’s in charge or what the response will be to an inflammatory action. It’s odd having the first president in my life making statements about what other people allow him to do. What other people?!
If he knows he is diminished and has a competent trusted advisor then this situation can be alleviated somewhat. I’m not sure who that would be. Others such as Putin will have to make a calculation about who might be really making decisions if Biden is busy drooling on the floor. Reagan covered up his dementia at the end of his term.
“President Biden warned Russian President Vladimir Putin that the U.S. and its allies would meet a military invasion of Ukraine with strong economic penalties, moves to bolster Ukrainian defenses and fortify support for Eastern European nations.”
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I have no idea why you would take a military response off the table at this stage. Dumb as a bag of rocks. Europe is dependent on Russian energy supplies. I suppose this is more for the domestic audience. Had he who shall not be named done this, the media would have been merciless in their “pandering to Russia” narrative.
“One of the events was a party at a restaurant in Oslo, Norway. Around 70 of the 120 people who attended the party were infected, as were another 50 people at the restaurant. Omicron has been confirmed by sequencing in 13 cases so far.”
“In Denmark, 53 of 150 people who went to a Christmas lunch in Viborg have been confirmed to be infected with omicron.
In Spain, 68 medics at the University Regional Hospital in Malaga have tested positive after going to a Christmas party at which 173 people were present altogether. It isn’t yet clear if any of the 68 have omicron.”
“In the UK, Tim Spector at King’s College London says he has been told of a 60th birthday party at which 14 of 18 people were infected with omicron according to PCR tests. All the guests were vaccinated and are said to have tested negative on lateral flow tests in the 24 hours beforehand.”
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Omicron is going to dominate pretty quickly it looks like. It’s still looking like cases may be milder but time will tell. Early evidence is that omicron is a pretty good vaccine evader for infection but the vaccines may still provide good protection against severe disease. Unclear but antibody tests show only 1/40 the protection as against the original strain. Milder disease may be because of a mutation or may be because the vaccines are still protective in this manner.
Better question is whether omicron provides protection over other forms of Xi flu.
Tom
The all tested negative beforehand is the bigger surprise.
Presumably the wait staff are all tested too?
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Hope it’s mild!
Well, as of three or four days ago, it was reported that the WHO sa[id] nobody is reported as having died of omicron yet.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/omicron-variant-deaths-covid-who-b1969720.html
Shrug. Absence of evidence and evidence of absence and all that. Still seems like a promising sign though.
mark,
Early “original strain” break out involve plenty of deaths. OTOH: it also involved lots of non-identified cases because no one was looking and there have always been cases with no symptoms.
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FWIW: A lot of the first detection outside Africa are tests of the symptomless. But it’s nicer to not be detecting deaths than the other way around.
Tom Scharf (Comment #207848): “If he knows he is diminished and has a competent trusted advisor then this situation can be alleviated somewhat. I’m not sure who that would be.”
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That amounts to having an unknown person as president, who is not answerable for his acts. And whose authority might or might not hold in a crisis. It might not be a guaranteed disaster, but it would be very dangerous.
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Tom Scharf: “Reagan covered up his dementia at the end of his term.”
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Reagan was not suffering from dementia while in office, nor for a number of years after. His possible “dementia” was a nasty rumor spread by his legions of enemies in the press.
OK, there have been superspreader events involving omicron. Ho-hum. Such events are characteristic of the Wuhan virus. They have surely been occurring all along; just not getting any press. But the new scariant has given the fearmongers a reason to hype such events. Is there any reason to believe that omicron is any different, other than likely being milder?
———-
Addition: To partially answer my own question, it looks like cases in South Africa have gone up by a factor of ten in the last two weeks, compared to doubling times of 10-14 days in the surges there last June and the previous December.
MikeM,
I think whether Regan did or did not have dementia can be debated. But if he could cover it then it isn’t as far a long as dementia that can’t be covered. I’d guess nearly all dementia patients try to cover it early on. Some start writing things down and “excuse” that as an organizational skill. After all: writing things down or asking other to do so to remember them can be an organizational skill. But a not busy old lady shouldn’t need a note on the fridge that says: “Jim is out playing golf. Will return around 1 pm”, to remember your husband went to play golf– just like he did nearly every day of retirement. (We actually clued father -in-law in on this idea and — with great difficulty– got him to do it to reduced panic phone calls at noon. But I did notice my mother started writing herself all sorts of notes to keep track of her own simple schedule when previously, she refused to write things like schedules down even when dealing with her schedule, that of 4 kids and a husband. When we were young, she never forgot important to her times. But now she did. )
Anyways, as dementia gets further alone, they (a) don’t know or refuse to believe they have dementia and (b) can’t cover it even if they try. They really can’t even remember their “coping” skills.
Presidents do have a lot of people around them who provide a certain amount of “coping” skills– like scheduling etc. But eventually, even they won’t be able to cover.
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MikeM,
The evidence we have does suggest Omicron spreads fast. Some suggests it can dodge the vax at least to some extent. Evidence is coming in. So we are getting lots of speculation which should stabilize in a few weeks to a month. If it’s really fast spreading, everyone might have had it by then. 🙂
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In which case, let’s hope it’s either mild generally or at least mild for the vaccinated. Otherwise, if it’s a super-spreading-super-killer, populations are toast. OTOH: we’ll more easily make our goals for reducing fossil fuel use. 🙂
Lucia,
“OTOH: we’ll more easily make our goals for reducing fossil fuel use.”
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Joking aside, lots of true greens want to drastically (>90%) reduce human populations. Not going to happen, of course, but they would like it if there were a virus that spread like chickenpox and killed like Ebola. One of the many reasons I think greens are nuts.
SteveF,
I think at least some greens do want to reduce human population. I suspect often not to the extent of not-reproducing themselves. Certainly not to the extent of killing themselves.
Not that I think they should kill themselves. But not having kids and ending your own life is a step. . . Otherwise we need to wait for disease or THANOS fro the Marvel Comic book movie.
Reagan continued to make public appearances for about 5 years after retiring, which is when he was diagnosed. Given that he would have been getting excellent medical care, it seems unlikely that there was a delay of many years between onset of significant symptoms and diagnosis. So I doubt he had significant symptoms while in the White House.
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The press is excited to report that omicron spreads like wildfire. So are many public health officials. We shall see.
The preliminary evidence is omicron is overtaking delta pretty rapidly in most places, which very likely means it is significantly more transmissive. This could be baseline infectiousness or just vaccine evasion, or both.
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The next few weeks should answer most of the questions, at least to the level where we know what to expect. People will die from it at some level of course. It looks almost certain like a new “vaccine variant†will be here in a few months and there is good reason to assume it will be effective. Jan/Feb may be yet another strong covid surge. It doesn’t look like this will end anytime soon 2 years in. I think we just need to accept this reality. Wear N95’s until a new vaccination if you are paranoid once omicron takes hold in your area. This seems 4-6 weeks away is my guess.
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I read that they tested 12 people in South Africa and the (previously infected + vaccinated) group did much better than just vaccinated. They didn’t test boosted. My reading of the tea leaves is the vaccine will be minimally protective against infection and boosted will be moderately effective. They keep using phrases such as “vaccines will have more than zero protectionâ€.
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This just in, WSJ:
“A third dose increased antibodies 25-fold compared with two doses against the Omicron variant”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine-loses-significant-effectiveness-against-omicron-in-early-study-companies-say-11638964121
It’s probably not worth litigating but there is a split decision on the level of Reagan’s impairment.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/worrying-about-reagan
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I would say that Biden now is about Reagan’s level at the end of his term. As I recall Reagan did much less public appearances in the end. You elect old people, you get old people problems. It seems fairly rare that 80 year old’s are “all there” mentally.
BIden entered office a year older than Reagan was when he left.
As I remember, Reagan was not quite the same after he recovered from being shot. General anesthesia can have long term negative results for older people.
DeWitt,
Yes, general anesthesia is very bad for older people, but extremely bad for someone in the early stages of Alzheimer’s. A business associate had surgery at 63, and it seemed like 2 months before his faculties returned to near normal. My father had emergency surgery following a botched colonoscopy (perforation of the large intestine wall) at 78… with early Alzheimers… and he was MUCH worse after; he went from being able to care for himself to being absolutely not able to care for himself.
FWIW, Snopes rates the claim of Reagan having dementia while in office “unproven” and includes the following:
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/ronald-reagan-alzheimers-disease/
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Of course, the “for his age” would allow for some mental decline.
Mike M,
During his time in office, Reagan was many times sharper than Biden is today.
Jussie Smollett guilty of lying to police. Likely to get probation. If hate crimes are a special category of crime, faking them should also be. Smollett’s career has been basically ruined (so far) so I guess there was justice in a sense. Overall the justice system still seems to work.
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It goes without saying that any media organization that covered the original story with enthusiasm is ethically obligated to cover this result. I’m not holding my breath.
Tom,
If actors are good, they can eventually overcome nearly any bad publicity. Rob Lowe vanished. Robert Downey Junior did for a while.
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At least for now, his career is shot. (I also don’t know if he’s any good. I never watched his show.)
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The Chicago Tribune is covering the story. They really can’t not cover it. It has too many Chicago angles.
My Brazilian daughter (the little girl in my avatar, now approaching 14) arrived this morning from Brazil. Outside the airport she was shocked that people were not wearing masks. She said she had worn a mask every time she left her house for the last 21 months. I can confirm, Brazil remains absolutely mask crazy, in spite of very low cases and deaths. I’m happy to be back in Florida.
Assumptions:
-Omicron is a mild form of Covid [less deadly].
-The coming uptrend of cases in Florida will be mostly Omicron [Delta is over].
-The best form of protection against severe Covid is a combination of natural and vaxx immunity.
Hypothesis:
Vulnerable people in Florida who are fully vaxxed would be well advised to engage in risky behavior at this time.
….asking for a friend.
Joe Biden was never very sharp in my view and thus the decline that some have noted did not have that far to go. I have noticed a walking gate that might indict some mental impairment.
I do not see any immediate consequences to his presidency and probably none for his first term. You have to consider that the media has his back and I would predict, if public criticism of a worsening Biden condition were to intensify in a correlated manner, the MSM will invoke age discrimination and make Biden the victim of partisan and vicious attacks.
If his condition were to make him suddenly more honest and an outspoken loose cannon with his political senses gone, the media would turn on him and the Democrat party would take him down.
Russel,
If we absolutely, positively knew Omicron was “common cold mild” AND we knew it gave immunity to other more virulent variants, you’d probably want to get Omicron. But we don’t know either thing for sure. Just a hope right now.
The UK omicron doubling time is now at 2-3 days, still based on small numbers but that is very fast for a vaccinated population with a lot of natural immunity. Early info says it will spread at least as fast as the original strain with a naïve population.
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If you are covid paranoid and wanted to do something in the US either this month or next I would definitely recommend this month, especially in the south. Omicron will probably overtake delta by end of January in the US.
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It’s possible that if omicron is significantly less lethal than delta then that decision should be reversed. This possibility is still sketchy but I haven’t heard of nearly any deaths from omicron which is rather weird at this point.
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The best thing to watch IMO is the variant proportions and other data in the UK over the next month to see how it will behave in the US. The UK has much better monitoring, also Israel.
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Once omicron gets a good grip, masks will be coming back is my guess.
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One interesting question is whether gaining natural immunity from omicron will give one protection from delta. I have no idea.
Russell, fairly good explanation here about why we dont know yet whether Omicron is mild or not yet.
https://arieh.substack.com/p/is-omicron-mild-we-dont-know-yet
And nothing to stop further mutations making it worse. Roll on with the antivirals I’d say.
Tom Scharf,
Is the UK sequencing every newly diagnosed COVID case? I don’t think so when the seven day new case moving average is currently nearly 50,000/day. And the new case rate has been over 25,000/day since early July with several peaks and valleys. How many asymptomatic cases are they missing? We don’t know. Therefore, we don’t know the doubling time and can’t estimate it with less than wall-to-wall confidence limits.
Rob Lowe and Robert Downey, Jr. were highly regarded at the time. Vast majority had never heard of Jussie Smollett, even with Empire being a huge hit for awhile.
Kenneth Fritsch (Comment #207877): “Joe Biden was never very sharp in my view and thus the decline that some have noted did not have that far to go.”
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What we are seeing with Biden is much more than being a little less sharp.
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Kenneth Fritsch: “I have noticed a walking gate that might indict some mental impairment.”
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Indeed. The report on his physical noted the change in gait, but did not investigate further. Dr. Marc Segal thinks that is outrageous; he says that such a change in an elderly person is often an indicator for a neurological problem and needs to be followed up.
I have not heard any charges of perjury in the Jussie Smollett case – against Jussie. Would not this be a classic example of perjury? I assume it can apply to a defendant who testifies on his own behalf.
Is it an issue of being after the fact? At least his lying at trial should have a major effect on sentencing.
Kenneth,
It doesn’t sound like the prosecutor is interested in perjury charges:
link here
https://abcnews.go.com/Entertainment/wireStory/jussie-smollett-awaits-verdict-jurors-case-81644187
[Edit:
There is speculation that Smollett might face some jail time because of his perjury. Link: https://chicago.cbslocal.com/2021/12/10/jussie-smollett-verdict-guilty-disorderly-conduct-fake-hate-crime-attack/
some news analyst thinks:
]
Phil Scadden thank you. That was worth reading. Gonna stay with the mask for a while.
I wrote the first part of this shortly after Thanksgiving and the last paragraph today.
I believe I might have become part of a Covid-19 experiment from Thanksgiving Day going forward. Unfortunately for the outcome of this experiment to provide definitive information it would have had to been more controlled or least used better information.
A home Thanksgiving gathering of approximately 30 related and befriended people with ages ranging from 16 to 87 years old were confined to the same room for over 2 hours giving dissertations of their annual thankfulness’s after a dinner at 3 tables lasting over an hour. No masks were worn with the only Covid-19 mitigation being an air filtering and moving device brought by a guest that was in an adjacent room. Greeting and leaving hugs were used in the traditional manner by all present.
One guest tested positive for Covid-19 the following day. I think the test might have been a precautionary and defensive one since that guest was showing no symptoms on Thanksgiving Day. I talked to that guest for some time face to face discussing her new job. There were some after-the-fact inputs that the infected person had had some Covid-19 symptoms days before Thanksgiving. Unfortunately, in the past when I have followed up on secondhand information from relatives, I have found that the information was sometimes not complete.
All the people present, as far as I know, were vaccinated and some, like myself, had received booster shots. It will be interesting to see how many of those present become infected and to what degree. I do not know how many will be tested as a precautionary measure. One of my sons thinks it will not be a shutout while I would not venture a guess at this point because of the uncontrolled nature of the experiment.
I can now report that after 2 weeks only one other person tested positive for Covid-19 (about 5 days after Thanksgiving) with mild but not asymptomatic conditions.
I do not know if any of you here have used Climate Explorer (KNMI) as a data source for climate related studies. I have and had exchanged emails with the scientist who put all that data together. He was Geert Jan van Oldenborgh. He passed away recently at a young age.
In my early work I found his data in a form much more convenient than downloading it from the original source and then getting that data from grid form into series. I have since learned how to do this more efficiently, but at the time I really appreciated what Geert was doing.
http://climexp.knmi.nl/start.cgi?id=someone@somewhere
Geert Jan died!!! That’s very sad.
MikeN
Well, and speculation of Jussie’s motive has always been that his problem was he wanted a raise. I suspect he thought being “known” might help his career.
I admit I didn’t follow the trial much. I do still remember the jokes about how he managed to hang on to his sandwich despite the mugging.
The UK is the world leader in sequencing and has sequenced about 13% of all their covid cases in the last month. They will prioritize different areas such as where the omicron breakout is largest. The US sequences about 2.6% of cases.
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Not having all the cases sequenced isn’t the same as knowing nothing of course, and 13% is a lot of data. It’s just the best available data though and subject to change. However between that and the South African data there looks to be enough data to call it a very fast spreader and vaccine evader. They compare this against the ramp up rate for delta.
Lucia & Mike,
OMG. That drove me berserk IIRC.
Mike M,
“… such a change in an elderly person is often an indicator for a neurological problem and needs to be followed up”
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No doubt in my mind that his doctors recognize his neurological problems, and are providing whatever treatment is suitable. But there is not a lot that can be done for dementia in most cases.
Tom Scharf,
Another reason why a doubling time for Omicron of 2-3 days doesn’t make sense is that I’m pretty sure it would require an incubation period of about 24 hours rather than the five to 14 days of all previous variants. More likely is that the numbers are not accurate. For example, one or two superspreader events when there are only a relatively small number of cases would make the doubling time look a lot shorter. That would probably also mean that there are many more cases out there than are being counted.
DeWitt,,
” it would require an incubation period of about 24 hours rather than the five to 14 days of all previous variants”
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Claims of very rapid development of an infectivity are almost certainly wrong. It is “hysteria-all-the-time”® that is the problem, not the evolution a new variant. I expect in 8 weeks omicron will hardly get a mention any more in the hysterical press. It will go down the same memory hole as coverage of the Christmas parade killings.
.
Some good news: it looks like Gretchen Whitmer, the Arbitrary & Capricious, of Michigan is well behind her likely Republican opponent in 2022. The drop in her political support has motivated some changes in policy… she has now backed away from support for forced vaccinations for everyone. Too late, voters already know she is incompetent, dishonest, and a hypocrite.
Alec Baldwin is now claiming that he didn’t pull the trigger for the fatal shot. He ‘only’ pulled the hammer back and let it go and the gun went off. Duh! That’s exactly what anyone who actually knows anything about single action (or double action for that matter) revolvers would expect to happen. If you don’t want the weapon to fire, you have to gently lower the hammer. Needless to say, the talking head on TV who interviewed Baldwin didn’t point this out because he was probably equally clueless.
DeWitt Payne (Comment #207895): “Another reason why a doubling time for Omicron of 2-3 days doesn’t make sense is that I’m pretty sure it would require an incubation period of about 24 hours rather than the five to 14 days of all previous variants.”
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The earlier variants had an average incubation time of 4 or 5 days. It is entirely possible for the doubling time to be less than the incubation time, if R is large enough. Or a shorter doubling time could correspond to the same R and a shorter time from one generation to the next.
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That said, extreme numbers are almost always wrong. There is a lot of random chance involved which produces a large variance in numbers. The “press” choose whatever best fits their narrative.
———-
Addition: The South Africa data imply a doubling time of 4-5 days.
DeWitt Payne (Comment #207897): “Alec Baldwin is now claiming that he didn’t pull the trigger for the fatal shot. He ‘only’ pulled the hammer back and let it go and the gun went off. Duh! That’s exactly what anyone who actually knows anything about single action (or double action for that matter) revolvers would expect to happen. If you don’t want the weapon to fire, you have to gently lower the hammer. ”
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I was wondering about that, but from what I could find the hammer is not supposed to move forward unless the trigger is pulled. So if you want to uncock the weapon, you need to gently lower the hammer while pulling the trigger. But I also found that with 19th century designs, the safety that holds the hammer can often fail.
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It is obvious that Baldwin knows little or nothing about guns. But I don’t think that an actor should be held liable for that. There are other people, such as the armorer, who are responsible for seeing that safety procedures are followed and that people get the training they need. It is pretty obvious that the armorer was not doing her job properly and it seems that was part of a horribly lax safety culture on the site. I would say that responsibility ultimately lies with the person on site with the greatest authority. Like a producer. Let’s see, that would be ….
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I think Baldwin is in big trouble.
Mike M.,
A lot of single action weapons have a half-cock notch. But it’s not considered a reliable safe position and there is no guarantee that if the hammer is released, rather than slowly lowered, that it will stop at the half cock position. Other than half-cock, I don’t know of any mechanism that would hold the hammer in position when released even if the trigger hasn’t been pulled. Modern weapons have safeties that will keep the hammer from striking the firing pin, but the revolver in question wasn’t a modern weapon.
Scott Adams: “I won’t get a booster so long as the known global death count from Omicron remains at zero (per Snopes). I want that infection instead.
If big pharma can’t tell me whether the Omicron or the booster is more dangerous, I’m done with them.“ https://twitter.com/scottadamssays/status/1469664698530365444?s=21
Russell,
Adams isn’t entirely wrong. If Omicron is more like a common cold, it might make sense for most people to just get it. But he seemed to lean anti-vax-ish before Omicron.
(1) I got my booster pre-Omicron. 🙂
(2) Right now, Δ is still circulating at higher levels than Omicron. It’s all well and good to say I’m happy to get Omicron (with caveats). I’d prefer to not risk getting Δ either. So right now if I was not already boosted, I’d get boosted to avoid Δ.
(3) By the time they have an Omicron specific vaccine, we’ll know whether Omicron is a threat or not. We don’t yet know. I’m glad Big Pharma is working on an Omicron vax because it might turn out to be a threat. If it’s not, well, uptake will be small.
(4) I’ll take the omicron if there is a risk of being sick as a dog for two weeks. I’ll take a shingles vax for the same reason. So, as far as I’m concerned, “avoiud death” isn’t the only reason to take a vax.
Because of (4), I really don’t understand why he’s bothering to say what he’s saying. Of course if Omicron turns out to be mild, many people won’t get the booster when it finally arrives 2 – 3 months from now. Big whip.
MikeM
I agree with MikeM. Doubling time can be less than incubation period.
If delta natural/vaccine immunity isn’t especially helpful for omicron it may very well be the reverse is true, that omicron immunity through infection may not be very helpful for delta.
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If this is the case then these two variants should be able to coexist side by side instead of one out competing another into non-existence. I haven’t seen any information on this, so this is just my speculation.
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The doubling time should simply be a factor of how many people are infected over the infectious period and should be independent of the start/incubation time. I did also read that omicron was infectious earlier than delta so these things may be coincidentally linked anyway, also they are reporting in home transmission is higher with omicron.
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A doubling time of 3 days is what they were measuring, it could be an artifact of a lot of things. Where and how they choose to measure, a population that is taking no precautions, etc. I wouldn’t be surprised to see that number get bigger but possibly it is the real measurement today.
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Every day we continue to * not * hear that omicron is equally lethal provides better probability it is milder. No news is good news here. Since it takes a while for people to get seriously ill and omicron is new then I’m not sure they are accounting for the lag here properly, but maybe they are. They supposedly are comparing it against delta in similar early time periods, but nothing is really equal as we have seen.
Tom,
Yep. No news==Good news. At least, odds are no news is better than news here.
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I think you are correct that if Δ doesn’t give immunity to omicron, omicron probably doesn’t give immunity to Δ. Ι’m not positive, but it seems like the odds would go in that direction.
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There is really nothing I can do right now other than listen to news reports. But I certainly think it doesn’t make sense to justify no booster based on Omicron being mild. Delta is still out there and people (at least older ones) who don’t have immunity to delta are better off getting it by vax than by infection. If you needed it for delta before omicron came around, the case for getting it is still good. If you didn’t need it, then the case for getting it for delta isn’t any stronger than before.
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We don’t know enough about omicron to make a case for getting one of the current boosters for omicron.
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When they come out with boosters for variants, I’ll probably get one. I’m pretty pro-vax.
People are blaming the armorer, but it’s been also been alleged by one person on set that Alec’s shooting with the gun wasn’t in the script. More like, ‘Let me show you what I’ll do if you behave like that’.
I think it is possible to get a gun to fire if you hold the trigger down and then repeatedly hit the hammer.
Comparatively new study in Circulation finds significant endothelial damage caused by Covid vaccines.
…..”We conclude that the mRNA vacs dramatically increase inflammation on the endothelium and T cell infiltration of cardiac muscle and may account for the observations of increased thrombosis, cardiomyopathy, and other vascular events following vaccination.”
……..
“A total of 566 pts, aged 28 to 97, M:F ratio 1:1 seen in a preventive cardiology practice had a new PULS test drawn from 2 to 10 weeks following the 2nd COVID shot and was compared to the previous PULS score drawn 3 to 5 months previously pre- shot. Baseline IL-16 increased from 35=/-20 above the norm to 82 =/- 75 above the norm post-vac; sFas increased from 22+/- 15 above the norm to 46=/-24 above the norm post-vac; HGF increased from 42+/-12 above the norm to 86+/-31 above the norm post-vac. These changes resulted in an increase of the PULS score from 11% 5 yr ACS risk to 25% 5 yr ACS risk. At the time of this report, these changes persist for at least 2.5 months post second dose of vac.” https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/circ.144.suppl_1.10712
More evidence to me to suggest there is no reason to give the mRNA to healthy people under 40. Would point out that typically this type of damage leads to long-term atherosclerosis, not acute myocarditis, so until this point it has probably mostly been overlooked.
MikeN,
Yes, it’s called fanning. You can empty the gun quickly, but not very accurately.
JD Ohio,
All well and good, but without information on how much damage the virus itself does, it’s not totally convincing. My understanding is that the incidence of myocarditis is higher for the unvaccinated who become infected than it is for vaccinated. If you don’t get vaccinated, you will get the virus.
Here’s an image of the firing mechanism of a single action revolver:
https://images.app.goo.gl/xZ2CYEmMWxHAoQg2A
From the animation, it looks to me like pulling back the hammer also pulls the trigger back. If you release the hammer before the sear engages, the weapon will likely fire.
Tom Scharf,
“If this is the case then these two variants should be able to coexist side by side instead of one out competing another into non-existence.”
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There is no such competition, unless you mean that immunity from infection by one strain reduces the chance of catching the other. Viruses mostly burn through the population and die out (or become endemic at a low level) independent of a different virus.
JD Ohio,
The relevance of the elevated markers depends very much on how representative the population being tested is. It would appear the population consists of patients with known coronary disease, which is highly unlikely to be representative of the general population. That said, it would make sense to carefully examine the general population (that is, those who are not existing cardiac patients) to verify if the markers are elevated post vaccination.
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Two other observations: 1) it is already known that for young men (puberty to 28) there is a significant increase in myocarditis, but not in other groups, and 2) there has been no documented increase in cardiac related deaths, in spite if hundreds of millions of people having received the vaccines. Were there a big increase in risk for cardiac disease from the vaccines, it is very likely that would already have been observed.
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It is true that the risk of death for covid 19 is very low for those under 40, but it is not zero, so it is important to balance that risk against side effects from vaccination. A strong argument can be made for those under 18 not needing vaccination (their risk really is very near zero) but I doubt the statistics would support not vaccinating those between 18 and 40.
JD Ohio (Comment #207908): “More evidence to me to suggest there is no reason to give the mRNA to healthy people under 40. Would point out that typically this type of damage leads to long-term atherosclerosis, not acute myocarditis, so until this point it has probably mostly been overlooked.”
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Although I agree with others that the study is not all that convincing, I also agree with the key point JD makes: We don’t really know the long term effects of these experimental vaccines. So caution is warranted.
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I find it amazing that people defend the vaccines on the grounds that we don’t know for sure that they are a bad idea for younger people. That is the opposite of the normal standard, which is to not treat unless the benefits have been clearly shown to outweigh the risks. It is madness.
Interesting [to me] article:
“As Omicron Advances, South Africa Sees Little Severe Diseaseâ€
“South African hospitalizations from the omicron coronavirus variant are rising at a slower rate than surging case numbers, while severe disease is limited and there’s only a small uptick in deaths.â€
“As many as 68% of coronavirus hospital intakes in the Tshwane municipal area — that includes Pretoria — were under 40, according to NICD data presented on Dec. 3. That compares with individuals over 50 accounting for 66% of hospitalizations during the early weeks of the third wave.â€
This is a fun time for a data cherry picker like me!
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-10/s-africa-sees-disconnect-between-covid-cases-hospitalizations
Lucia, this may be of interest….. given your snot studies. It’s above my pay grade but talks to nasal immunity. “Efficient mucosal antibody response to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination is induced in previously infected individualsâ€
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.06.21267352v1
Also a significant proportion of younger people hospitalized continue to be there “with covid” and not “from covid”.
Phil Scadden (Comment #207880): “fairly good explanation here about why we dont know yet whether Omicron is mild or not yet.
https://arieh.substack.com/p/is-omicron-mild-we-dont-know-yet”
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Sounds like a somewhat biased article to me. The author seems to call those who disagree with Lord Fauci “Covid conspiracy theorists and sceptics”. He gives some good reasons to be cautious about claims, but does not really support his claim that “we have no idea whether the Omicron variant induces milder disease than other variants”.
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However there is a really good link provided to
https://www.samrc.ac.za/news/tshwane-district-omicron-variant-patient-profile-early-features
Hard to read that and not conclude, at least tentatively, that omicron is mild. Especially striking:
That sure sounds like most cases are people admitted for something else but who tested positive on admission.
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Data are through Dec. 4, so it would be nice to have an update.
To follow up on the above; it seems to me that the ratio of “from” to “with” is a valuable indicator of disease severity. “From” meaning hospitalized as a result of the infection and “with” meaning hospitalized for something else, but having a positive test on admission.
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“With” should be an indicator of prevalence of infection in the population and “from” should be an indicator of disease severity. The ratio should be proportional to the chance of being hospitalized following infection. The proportionality constant might be a lot different from unity, but I propose that it ought to be nearly constant. Am I missing a reason it should not be?
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So I think the South Africa data is absolutely good news, at least if it holds up and is not just some fluke of the limited early data. Omicron is much more likely than earlier variants to result in “with” rather than “from”. *If* the data hold up.
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It is possible that the lower severity in South Africa is due not to changes in the virus but changes in the host; i.e., an acquired higher level of resistance in the population. That seems like even *better* news since that would be applicable to all variants. I don’t see why it might be localized to South Africa unless they have somehow had a much higher overall incidence of infection than elsewhere. They have a low overall level of vaccination.
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But it would be a crazy coincidence for a change in overall host resistance to occur exactly where and when the new variant appeared. So I think reduced severity of the virus is by far the more likely explanation. *If* the data hold up.
Mike M,
I suspect it is far too early to tell if omicron will be more or less virulent. More transmissible? Yes probably, but not for sure. More deadly? No data available. What is very unlikely is omicron should change public policy, at least based on available data. Most likely we are discussing a non-event that will have almost zero impact in most places. I continue to enjoy no-mask dinners, as I head out to dinner tonight.
Mike, hard to understand why you dont follow his case for why we dont have enough data (yet) to ascertain it’s virulence. If you are suspecting liberal bias, then try Zvi (a strong critic of administration) instead. https://thezvi.wordpress.com/
FWIW, Zvi updates probabilities that Omicron will be less virulent from 50% to 55%. As Tom says, every day without bad news is good news.
SteveF (Comment #207919): “I suspect it is far too early to tell if omicron will be more or less virulent.”
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If looking only at aggregate data, that is likely so. But the with/from ratio gives much better information. If the early data holds.
————–
Phil Scadden (Comment #207920): “Zvi updates probabilities that Omicron will be less virulent from 50% to 55%. As Tom says, every day without bad news is good news.”
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I only had a chance for a quick skim, but it looks like he makes a false assumption:
Wrong. Hospitalizations will track with infections, even if all cases are asymptomatic. What is needed is hospitalizations from covid separated from those merely with covid. That data, admittedly limited, suggests far fewer severe cases.
SteveF: “there has been no documented increase in cardiac related deaths,”
I don’t know where you have gotten this point from. I don’t think it is correct. I myself have seen one case of a healthy 28 year-old man who died 6 days after having been vaccinated. His autopsy showed blood clots all thoughout his body. In my mind, it is 100% that his death was caused by vaccine. I tried to help him find a lawyer handling these cases, (CICP cases), but since his family speaks Chinese, and few lawyers handle these (I don’t want to), so far a claim hasn’t been filed.
Here is Forbes summary of claims filed and VAERs stats:
” There were only 1,357 claims filed that alleged “injuries/deaths from the Covid vaccines,†and 53 were listed as deaths, according to recent reporting by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS).
By contrast, the self-reporting Vaccine Adverse Reporting System (VAERS) lists 16,310 deaths related to Covid vaccines. Of these, “5,326 of the deaths occurred on Day 0, 1,or 2 following vaccination[.]â€
https://www.forbes.com/sites/adamandrzejewski/2021/11/04/feds-pay-zero-claims-for-covid-19-vaccine-injuriesdeaths/?sh=59b58c624a87
Dewitt P: “All well and good, but without information on how much damage the virus itself does, it’s not totally convincing. My understanding is that the incidence of myocarditis is higher for the unvaccinated who become infected than it is for vaccinated.”
I think you are mixing up two closely related but different conditions. Myocarditis is a specific, symptomatic heart disease. The study I quoted was measuring an increase inflammation on the endothelium and T cell infiltration of cardiac muscle as well as other symptomatic heart diseases but apparently not myocarditis. In any event, more than doubling the cardiac risks during a period of months as reported in the most prestigious cardiac journal where the authors noted a “dramatic” increase is something to be very concerned about and something that should be looked at closely. As far as I know, they are the only people that have investigated this issue.
Also, worth noting is that public health agencies in the US have been so derelict that they have not even studied the efficacy of natural immunity even though, with the data they have it would be easy. Dr. Marty Makary has commented on this and because of their dereliction, he is doing his own study.
I made a mistake in above post. Apparently CDC has finally done something of a study on natural immunity. This tweet contains a link to CDC study (hard to copy) https://twitter.com/RepThomasMassie/status/1470218792919834628?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1470218792919834628%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=
Makary is a professor of health policy at John Hopkins. On one interview he stated that CDC hadn’t done study on natural immunity. May have been before the above study.
JD Ohio,
Correlation does not prove causation. Infection with SARS-CoV-2 is known to cause blood clots. The important point that you seem to have completely missed and your linked study does not address is the relative risks from vaccination versus infection. I find it very difficult to believe that an mRNA vaccine would have a worse effect on the cardiovascular system than infection by the actual virus, which also produces a T-cell response.
Mike, while the za report noted that covid was found incidentally in patients entered for other reasons, I think it is pretty safe to assume that the sharp rise in hospital admission in the province is mostly due to covid. It also seems that the general wards in the statistics were covid wards (referred to as such in the text). The good news is that ICU and HC cases were mostly not primarily covid. Long may this continue.
Phil Scadden (Comment #207926): “I think it is pretty safe to assume that the sharp rise in hospital admission in the province is mostly due to covid.”
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What sharp rise in admissions? Any evidence of that? There were only of the order of 40 people in the covid wards. That can’t possibly be a large fraction of admissions, so how can it produce a sharp rise in overall admissions?
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Phil Scadden: “It also seems that the general wards in the statistics were covid wards (referred to as such in the text).”
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I think that is clear, but how is it significant? As near as I can tell, the way it works is that if you go to the hospital with chest pains, they diagnose a heart attack, admit you, and your covid test comes back positive, then you are put in the covid ward.
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Phil Scadden: “The good news is that ICU and HC cases were mostly not primarily covid. Long may this continue.”
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That seems to be so for all cases.
DeWitt Payne (Comment #207925): “I find it very difficult to believe that an mRNA vaccine would have a worse effect on the cardiovascular system than infection by the actual virus”.
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I prefer evidence over faith. And as JD says, the public health authorities have been so derelict that we can’t depend on their judgement.
DeWitt Payne: “Correlation does not prove causation.” The odds that deaths within 2 days of receiving the vaccination in many healthy people ((VAERS) cite I had does not break this down) have to be astronomical. I would compare that somewhat to DNA evidence, which is only circumstantial.
The odds that a healthy 28-year-old man would die of something other than the vaccination, when cause of death was blood clots 6 days after vaccination, would also have to be astronomical.
The odds of healthy people under 40 dying of covid are very low. However,, you are right that you have to compare the lives saved by the vaccine to the deaths caused by the vaccine.
There is no doubt that a very rational case could be made that an under 40 healthy person is more at risk from the vaccine than from an infection. In any case, there are no grounds to have forced vaccination for under 40 people. Here is a link to a study from Germany that shows how low the odds of death from the virus are for young people. https://earth-chronicles.com/science/german-study-shows-zero-mortality-from-covid-among-healthy-children-ages-5-11.html
For background purposes here are some of the autopsy findings, in the case of the healthy 28 yr old who died 6 days after vaccination:
…..
The heart weighs 380 grams. The pericardial surfaces are smooth, glistening, and unremarkable.
The pericardial sac is free of significant fluid or adhesions. Coronary arteries arise normally,
following a right dominant pattern with no significant atherosclerotic stenoses. The chambers
and valves have the usual size-position relationship. The right ventricular wall thickness is 0.4
centimeters; the left ventricular wall thickness is 1.4 centimeters. The myocardium is uniform
red-brown and free of abnormal markings. The atrial and ventricular septa are intact. The aorta
and its major branches arise normally and follow the usual courses with no significant
atherosclerosis. The venae cavae and its major tributaries are thin-walled, patent, and in the
usual distribution.
RESPIRATORY STSTEM:
The right lung is 800 grams; the left lung 730 grams. The tracheobronchial tree is patent and the
mucosal surfaces are intact. Pleural surfaces are translucent, smooth, and glistening. The
pulmonary parenchyma is pink-tan to dark red-purple and exudes large amounts of blood and
frothy fluid. Pulmonary arteries and veins are normally developed and patent.
……. Then evidence of cause of death:
“MICROSCOPIC EXAMINATION
Slide 1: Lungs – Intraalveolar hemorrhage, vascular congestion.
Slide 2: Lungs – Intraalveolar hemorrhage, edema, vascular congestion.
Slide 3: Spleen – Congestion.
Kidney — Vascular congestion.
Slide 4: Liver – Acute passive congestion.
Kidney – Vascular congestion.
Slide 5: Thyroid – Unremarkable.
Brain – Vascular congestion.
Slide 6: Heart – Vascular congestion.
Slide 7: Prostate – Vascular congestion.
Adrenal – Vascular congestion.
Slide 8: Pancreas – Autolysis.
Slide 9: Pancreas – Autolysis.
Brain – Vascular congestion, edema.”
……
There is no plausible cause of death other than the vaccine, which is known to cause heart damage in some people.
MikeM – “What sharp rise in admissions? Any evidence of that? ”
From the article you linked:
“In keeping with the statistics presented by the Gauteng Department of Health on 2 December 2021 for the province as a whole, and with admissions across all public and private hospitals in Tshwane as shown in the NICD DATCOV database, we have seen a sharp rise in admissions at the Steve Biko Academic and Tshwane District Hospitals (SBAH/TDH) Complex with 166 new admissions between 14 and 29 November 2021. This makes up 45% of all Tshwane District Admissions in the public sector and 26% of all admissions in both public and private sectors for the same period.”
JDOhio,
I agree nobody should be forced to get vaccinated.
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But that autopsy report sounds like the man died from covid infection; severe infections do cause extensive vascular damage. It makes perfect sense to be vigilant in tracking any long-term side effects from the vaccines in large populations, but anecdotal data points are never convincing.
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Even if a few deaths *were* caused by a reaction to the vaccine, it seems that is a risk most people may be willing to accept. IIRC a 28 YO has about a 0.01% chance of death (or a bit less) from a case of covid. Polio vaccinations kill people every year (about 30?) yet nobody suggest polio vaccine should be avoided. I very much doubt the risk of adverse reaction to the vaccines reaches anywhere near the risk from an infection, except in the case of young men (puberty to early 20’s), who have extremely low risk from covid and higher risk of cardiac damage.
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Self-reported reactions are not even data; placebo controlled studies show very clearly that the side effects from the vaccines are usually mild, and the vaccinated population has a far lower overall risk of death than the unvaccinated.
JD Ohio,
Can you say post hoc ergo propter hoc? I knew you could. That logical fallacy is exactly why there are double blind studies for drug safety and effectiveness. As SteveF points out, VAERS isn’t actually data. It’s a collection of anecdotes that haven’t been vetted. Without a plausible mechanism that would make the mRNA vaccines more dangerous than the virus itself, the study you link is only suggestive at best. It proves nothing.
If you really think that mRNA vaccines are unsafe, don’t get one.
I also agree with Mike M. that our public health authorities, particularly the CDC, have been derelict starting with the test fiasco in early 2020.
UK now does record 1 death from Omicron:
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britain-says-omicron-spreading-phenomenal-rate-2021-12-13/
Details on rates aren’t really in that article. I think we still have scares info because it’s early days. They do report hospitalizations.
Two recent stories:
“Report recommends taxpayers pay expenses for out-of-state abortions in Californiaâ€
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/politics/report-recommends-taxpayers-pay-expenses-for-out-of-state-abortions-in-california
And:
“ Planned Parenthood of Illinois said it is preparing to serve up to five times as many patients, depending on where patients choose to travel if federal protections are weakened.â€
https://www.wsj.com/articles/illinois-abortion-clinics-are-preparing-for-a-potential-post-roe-world-11638419374
Looks like the abortion industry is planning on capitalizing on abortion freedom in Democrat states. In 1860 Abraham Lincoln, a Republican, won the Presidential election on a platform of abolishing slavery. Businesses in some states found it profitable to use slaves instead of paid workers. States Rights be damned! Some issues transcend Federalism. Here’s hoping the Republican presidential candidate makes this an issue in 2024.
Phil Scadden (Comment #207931): “… 166 new admissions between 14 and 29 November 2021. This makes up 45% of all Tshwane District Admissions in the public sector and 26% of all admissions in both public and private sectors for the same period.â€
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I read that as covid positive admissions. 40 admissions per day in all of Tshwane with a population over three million. That hardly seems credible for all cause admissions. Also “NICD DATCOV database” sure sounds like a covid specific database.
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Since the link is some distance above, I repost it:
https://www.samrc.ac.za/news/tshwane-district-omicron-variant-patient-profile-early-features
JD Ohio (Comment #207930): “There is no doubt that a very rational case could be made that an under 40 healthy person is more at risk from the vaccine than from an infection.”
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Very sound. One case does not prove anything, no matter how odd. But there are many such cases in the VAERS database. I wish we could trust the authorities to properly investigate and evaluate them. But we can’t.
JD Ohio,
A supposedly rational case was made that talcum powder that may have contained traces of asbestos caused ovarian cancer. It was totally bogus, but the juries bought it.
LOL, ROFL. 1 person dies from omicron. I cannot believe this actually made a headline. The very definition of media scaremongering, was somebody making the case that nobody was ever going to die from omicron? I assumed plenty of people had already died from it, at the very least there will be plenty dying with omicron, not necessarily from it, as usual.
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As per reality, it can be interpreted that people don’t actually die from covid or a vaccine, they die from organ failure. I don’t think there are any real standards in death reporting by state so anecdotal reports in these areas are highly open to bias. The CDC does accumulate the number of people who died after testing positive so we do get some real data. I think it’s probably a good idea to just get the raw data and not ask people to interpret whether covid was the underlying condition that caused death so we get consistent reporting. We just have to live with the fact that some people involved in car wrecks “died from covid” and adjust accordingly.
DeWitt,
Jackpot juries are a huge problem in civil litigation, especially in complex cases like that. Asking the general public to make scientific decisions on causation after they have been primed with scads of environmental determinism propaganda from the media is going to lead to bad results.
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One can imagine a panel of experts in the science under question who would be tasked with making a judgment on whether a case like that can proceed would be a good idea. Unfortunately my faith in expert panels is a little low at the moment, although I would prefer that over a random panel of the general public in this kind of case. There should be a better way.
South Africa had a Covid case fatality rate (CFR) of 2.92% on July 17. It rose slowly but steadily to 3.03% on November 28, when it took a markedly downward trend. It was 2.88% on December 12. The US by comparison during this time period has had a slow but steady downward trend to 1.60%. Israel also showed slow but steady down trends during this period.
We don’t need no stinkin vaccines… we got Omicron. [Ain’t data cherry pickin fun!] https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid
Tom Scharf
I’m not surprised. Lots of people were emphasizing zero deaths. Now it’s not zero anymore.
We’ll probably have news reports for each attributed death until we reach a half dozen or so. It was similar when Covid first broke out.
lucia (Comment #207942): “Lots of people were emphasizing zero deaths. Now it’s not zero anymore.”
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It might still be zero. The cause of death in the UK case has not been revealed. It might not have been covid.
The problem remains that it is still difficult to extract conclusive evidence from the data to date. Somehow, an estimate is needed of what the hospitalization/death rate would be at this stage in an outbreak if it Omicron had same virulence as Delta, where data is complicated by vaccination, age structure, and breakthrough cases. Good evidence one way or the other is going to emerge from the UK because it has a system for collecting the required data. The problematic bit is that we will have to wait 3-6 weeks at least for that happen.
I think the actual US mortality rate is closer to 0.5% if you take into account unreported covid cases (mild, asymptomatic, etc.). 1.6% is accurate for total deaths (800K) / total confirmed cases (50M). The unreported multiplier here will always be a moving target and a bit of a mystery. With at home tests becoming increasingly available the multiplier may go up again. There was a way to report a positive at home test from the kit I had but I doubt many people do that.
Tom Scharf (Comment #207945) “I think the actual US mortality rate is closer to 0.5%” The actual value is of not the point of my post. My interest is the slope of the case fatality rate (CFR) trend lines of the countries and the sudden rate of change of the slope of the trend line in South Africa starting December 1.
Russell, CFR is terrible measure. Simplest way to get a decline is increase testing rate. ( you find more mild case, ergo deaths per case go down). SA positivity rate is ridiculously high – they are not doing enough testing to get a good picture of case numbers. And lo, testing numbers increased dramatically – nearly doubled since Dec 1 according to https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/south-africa#are-countries-testing-enough-to-monitor-their-outbreak
Zvi has another update https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2021/12/13/omicron-post-6/ , More cause for cautious optimism on virulence. Looks like Denmark rather than UK might provide us with the best data, soonest. They are set to be 50% Omicron by late tomorrow. That is how fast it is moving.
Omicron in South Africa went from 1% of all cases to 90% of all cases in * two weeks *. Denmark and the UK are showing similar variant proportion trajectories (as opposed to total case loads). In home transmission is 3x higher than with delta. Doubling times continue to be 2-3 days in multiple countries. It’s almost certain this is already happening in the US as well, just a week or two lag. It’s going to happen pretty fast. The total covid case counts don’t start to accelerate until omicron gets to around 50% of all cases. One can check Denmark and South Africa counts.
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Delta plateaued down to about 10% of all cases and coexisted for about a week in South Africa and is now down to around 1%. This may mean there won’t be a long term side by side variant problem. It’s still early.
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On the good news front there still aren’t really any reports of overwhelmed healthcare systems or large death tolls. Exponential growth is ongoing so even with a more mild variant the larger total case load will still create some stress is my guess. Also a rather steep acceleration means a peak will be reached sooner rather than later. The media is going to freak out when it really gets going. I would advise getting your booster now to allow the time for it to take affect if you haven’t already done so. Pfizer says a booster helps in the lab, but real world data is pending.
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How this all maps onto the natural ups and downs of covid case count trends is anybody’s guess.
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Happy Holidays, ha ha!
JDOhio (Comment #207908) [Sorry]
Comparatively new study in Circulation finds significant endothelial damage caused by Covid vaccines.
…..â€We conclude that the mRNA vacs dramatically increase inflammation on the endothelium and T cell infiltration of cardiac muscle and may account for the observations of increased thrombosis, cardiomyopathy, and other vascular events following vaccination.â€
Concerns
First
“Our group has been using the PLUS Cardiac Test (GD Biosciences,”
The test is a PULS test UL may refer to unstable lesions. The paper referred to confuses it as a PLUS test. Not a good start.
Second
The test measures 9 protein inflammatory markers which are possible predictors of inflammation in the body in general.
Interleukin 16 (IL-16) is a cytokine that is released by a variety of cells (including lymphocytes and some epithelial cells), not specifically and only on endothelium in the heart.
Third
The tests were done 2-10 weeks after the second dose of an unspecified MRNA vaccine or vaccines.
Any cause of inflammation from tonsillitis to an acute local reaction could trigger a rise in inflammatory proteins.
Something is wrong with this statement.
It only mentions 3 of the 9 inflammatory markers [what happened to the rest?]
Fourth
all 3 tests were quite abnormal well before the injections well above the baselines.
“Baseline IL-16 increased from 35=/-20 above the norm to 82 =/- 75 above the norm post-vac; sFas increased from 22+/- 15 above the norm to 46=/-24 above the norm post-vac; HGF increased from 42+/-12 above the norm to 86+/-31 above the norm post-vac.”
Fifth
statement is based purely on blood tests but strongly suggests endothelial and T cell infiltration of heart muscle must exist.
“We conclude that the mRNA vacs dramatically increase inflammation on the endothelium and T cell infiltration of cardiac muscle”
Such claims could only be made on the basis of heart biopsies, not speculation,when there are many other causes of inflammation
sixth the comment.
“At the time of this report, these changes persist for at least 2.5 months post second dose of vac.”
is not correct. There were no follow up tests 10 weeks later after any of the second tests so the statement is not true.
Some tests in some people [not all] showed some changes at 10 weeks.
Who knows what the ones at 2 weeks would or could show in a further 8 weeks.
I think it needs to go back for reworking.
Alex (The Ostracized) Berensen, former reporter from the NYT predicts the covid madness will be ending soon in the States: https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/the-light-at-the-end-of-the-covid
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I hope he is right. He notes Europe is still struggling with severe covid mania that is very unlikely to end soon. Bad government structure (and Europe’s structure is ridiculously bad) often leads to destructive policies.
angech,
Thanks for bringing your expertise to the discussion of the linked paper.
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My biggest concern is that the paper appears to have no controls: neither healthy (non-cardiac) people nor even the same tests in cardiac patients that were NOT vaccinated. They don’t even address the number of deaths (if any) in an obviously at-risk population of cardiac patients. If the vaccinations were truly prejudicial to this at-risk group, then surely some patients died…. but not a word on that.
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The paper seems designed mainly to frighten, not inform of the magnitude of risk of vaccination.
JD Ohio wrote: “There is no plausible cause of death other than the vaccine, which is known to cause heart damage in some people.”
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Depends whether a pulmonary embolism was ruled out, which would certainly cause conjestion and pulmonary hemorrhage.
Today’s hopelessly unscientific snippets of unverified, anecdotal data comes from the Times of Israel:
“Omicron spread in Israel may be wider than thought — reportâ€
“Health Ministry officials have said cases of the Omicron coronavirus variant are popping up in Israel with no known source of infection, indicating the strain may be spreading through communities despite efforts to curb travel and keep the highly mutated variant out of the country, Israeli television reported Monday.â€
“According to Dr. Sharon Alroy-Preis, head of public services at the Health Ministry, Omicron is more contagious than past variants and is better able to evade vaccines. However, she also noted it has caused fewer fatalities and less severe morbidity than previous COVID-19 outbreaks…… Of the 67 Omicron infections so far confirmed in Israel, there has only been one case of someone falling seriously ill — an unvaccinated man who was hospitalized — and no deaths.â€
Angech. Thanks for your comments. I had assumed something in probably the most prestigious cardiology journal in the world had some reasonable basis. After I made my post, I looked up the author and he had an impressive cardiology background, but a less than impressive (in my view) background dealing with nutrition and heart disease.
There are still significant heart related risks for those taking the vaccine, but apparently what he claimed to measure is not that relevant to assessing the risks.
Now this is funny:
“Manchin told reporters he wants leaders to choose their “highest priorities†in the package, make them all last for a full 10 years instead of just several and squeeze all that into a measure costing less than $2 trillion.”
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Wait, Manchin wants the Dems to be honest about the cost of their programs? I doubt they ever will be. If required to be honest, the bill shrinks by a factor of three….. and it wouldn’t be nearly as damaging. Stupid? Yes, incredibly so. Economically destructive? Yes. Contrary to common sense? Of course. But a lot less damaging than $6 trillion. With a bit of luck, in early 2025 it will all be reversed.
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Here are a few ideas for Manchin: if the Dems want to end costly programs after a few years to make the deficit look lower, then insist they also end the tax increases at the same time…. and get rid of the obscene carried interest tax rate *and* get rid of the increase in state and local tax deduction from $10,000 to $80,000.
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But the Dems are not serious, so they will never agree to any of those things.
Evidence trickling in: South Africa data suggest Omicron 29% less likely to put people in hospital.
The vaccinated (Pfizer and J&J) less likely to be put in hospital than unvaccinated.
Source for info is evidently Discovery Health Ltd., the country’s largest medical-insurance provider that covers 3.7 million clients,
So it might even be true. 🙂
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-14/pfizer-stops-70-omicron-hospitalizations-in-south-african-study
Lucia,
I am now convinced omicron will be a non-event.
Lucia, that is good news, but still rather weak evidence. It is 29% less hospitalization compared to 2020 infections. There doesnt appear to be any attempt to factor for vaccination or previous infection. Still, if you have a population that is largely vaccinated or recovered, then expect better outcomes for the health system. For the unvaccinated and uninfected, I think the jury is still out.
Phil,
I agree. Also, 29% isn’t a huge difference in any case. However, it’s a hopeful sign. Much of the US is vaccinated or has previous infections. So at least we may not see hospitals overwhelmed.
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We’ll see what the next round of data holds.
Lucia,
“Much of the US is vaccinated or has previous infections. So at least we may not see hospitals overwhelmed.”
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I think you can count on it. There are just not that many people vulnerable to severe infection left, and the number diminishes each day that passes by perhaps 200,000. A common cold is not a cause for national insanity…. and a common cold is where we are headed. Even on the wacko-left, sanity is starting to take hold. The crazy-left governor of Colorado:
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“Everybody had more than enough opportunity to get vaccinated,” Polis told Colorado Public Radio on Friday. “Hopefully it’s been at your pharmacy, your grocery store, a bus near you, [or at] big events. At this point, if you haven’t been vaccinated, it’s really your own darn fault.”
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Ya,even on the extreme-crazy Dem left, reality seems to be imposing itself. Time is aligned against endless insanity.
I will go out on a limb and predict that none of Bidens (many) vaccine mandates are ever going to be enforced.
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The wacko-left locals in a few places will succeed in firing the resistant. But that ‘success’ will come back to haunt Dems in future elections. Black, white, or Hispanic, “Don’t tread on me!” is no joke. The current vernacular might be “leave me the frick alone!” With insistence on crazy covid rules that demand compliance, Dems are resigning themselves to the electoral minority for a good long while.
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And that is a very good thing for the country.
Omicron could be the big one. “ So, could Omicron be the cowpox of Covid- 19? Is this relatively benign version the vector of immunity? Is nature providing us with the perfect vaccine that will spread itself in the world population causing mild disease and providing immunity that will, at long last, end this pandemic? Should we, in fact, facilitate its spread? Stay tuned.†https://scheerpost.com/2021/12/10/will-omicron-finally-end-the-covid-19-pandemic/
And: “Over time, pandemic viruses typically mutate and evolve into an endemic disease that circulates at lower, more manageable levels.This was the case with the influenza strain behind the 1918 flu pandemic and some virologists hope this may be happening with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19.†https://www.healthline.com/health-news/what-we-can-learn-from-the-1918-flu-pandemic-as-the-omicron-variant-spreads
Russell,
Right now it doesn’t look like any facilitation will be required. It’s replacing delta on it’s own; no “facilitaiton”.
Even if it turns out to be very mild, it would be the pinnacle of foolishness to actually facilitate spread before we have more data.
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Omicron may be milder. That’s the way things seem pointing. I’m hopeful.
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But you don’t want to facilitate spread unless it turns out to be very very mild and you are very sure of that. It does look like Omicron puts some people in the hospital. Cowpox doesn’t do that. Cowpox doesn’t even make people noticably ill.
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So, Omicron isn’t something you would “facilitate” the way you would facilitate Cowpox.
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I suspect we are lucky it’s milder than the previous variants. If so, that’s very lucky. But if I were unvaccinated, I certainly wouldn’t go into a room full of omicron infected people hoping to be “vaccinated” with our current knowledge. That’s too risky.
If 2 shots is 70% effective, boosters should be even more so. However “Pfizer is 33% effective against infection by the omicron variant, he said”. That’s pretty low, a definite vaccine evader in this aspect. It doesn’t look like the pills will be available soon enough in quantity to make much of a difference with omicron.
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The CDC says the prevalence of omicron expanded 7x over the past week, now 3% of all cases in the US. This is consistent with other countries.
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My guess is we will see a large and relatively shortish wave of omicron over the next 6 weeks. We shall see what happens, predicting covid has been a fool’s game so far.
Tom Scharf,
“predicting covid has been a fool’s game so far.”
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Sure, but it really is winding down, in spite of Omicron. In spite of case rates, the consequences (AKA deaths) have been falling. Better, of course if vaccination rates among those over 50 were like the UK, but no matter what, there have now been so many cases that there is no possibility of a ‘surge’ like earlier surges.
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It’s ending.
SteveF (Comment #207967): “there have now been so many cases that there is no possibility of a ‘surge’ like earlier surges”.
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It seems to me that is the third time that you have made that prediction. Eventually, you will be right.
SteveF, Biden’s mandates won’t be enforced, but I think we will see many school districts passing a vaccine mandate. Already many universities are doing this.
They might expand it to flu vaccines.
The Atlantic and New York Times each published instructions to try and back down from covid panic, because they see that this is hurting Democrats politically.
Many people tweeted they were canceling their subscriptions to The Atlantic for publishing such dangerous thought.
Last I checked, the reconciliation bill reimposes the SALT deduction cap in 2025. They are only eliminating it for 3 years.
>But if I were unvaccinated, I certainly wouldn’t go into a room full of omicron infected people hoping to be “vaccinated†with our current knowledge.
I thought this was a good idea a year ago. I would have had colleges open their dorms a month early to let the virus burn thru before classes started, and sent kids to special summer camps, visiting hospitals.
MikeN (Comment #207970): “Last I checked, the reconciliation bill reimposes the SALT deduction cap in 2025. They are only eliminating it for 3 years.”
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The various spending items supposedly “sunset” after 1-3 years but the tax increases are for ten years. That is how they get “only” $1.7T for the spending and $0.3T for the deficit. But all the spending is obviously intended to continue indefinitely. The real cost is more like $5T with a deficit of $3.5T.
JD Ohio (Comment #207955)
Angech. Thanks for your comments. I had assumed something in probably the most prestigious cardiology journal in the world had some reasonable basis.
Thank you for yours.
Always good to hear your thoughts.
I would have hoped so as well.
Generally I trust these resources implicitly.
“There are still significant heart related risks for those taking the vaccine”
I certainly have concerns about the way the vaccines are intended to work and whether modifying our cells is the way to go.
There may well be unintended heart or vascular problems down the track.
I still feel happier having had 2 shots with covid in the community.
One reason for not vaccinating children in this specific case, it is only a cold for them, though with the nasty childhood diseases vaccination for children is very important.
The good thing of reaching 70 is that if it all goes pear shaped I only have 10000 days to miss, not 30000 like the children.
Mike M,
“It seems to me that is the third time that you have made that prediction. Eventually, you will be right.”
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Sure….and this should be that time. The omicron variant doesn’t seem to have the same impact that the delta variant had, in deaths or in public policies. Effective treatments like Pfizer’s oral anti-viral will further reduce the impact.
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Politicians on the left have begun to see that people don’t want their lives controlled by fools like Fauci and their children not educated because of the fools that run the teachers unions. They have started backing away from the worst covid policies, and that process is very likely to continue. There will be deep blue places where most all insane covid policies will continue to be swallowed by the voters, but most places the voters will not. Whitmer in Michigan didn’t just figure out last week that draconian rules are counterproductive, she looked at the public opinion polls and realized that if she didn’t change policies the voters would replace her next year with someone who would change those policies.
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In the long term what will change are state laws… most states will put fixed time and scale restrictions on public health ’emergencies’. These will avoid the most destructive policies next time.
MikeN,
Dem politicians see the polls. In any competitive state, the end of covid hysteria is upon us. In red states the hysteria ended long ago. In deep blue states the destruction will continue until enough voters realize they are being denied personal liberty for no reason beyond a lust for control by lefty politicians. It could be a very long time before life returns to normal.
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WRT mandated vaccinations for school children: it will happen in some places, but I suspect not many. There will be court cases where vaccination mandates for kids are contested. I believe those cases will hinge on the actual risk unvaccinated children face… which is effectively zero. But in any case it will be a state and local decision, not one made by an 80 year old with Alzheimers.
angech,
“The good thing of reaching 70 is that if it all goes pear shaped I only have 10000 days to miss”
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Your family must have a history of longevity. For most people reaching 70 it is more like 5000 days to miss.
Tom Scharf “predicting covid has been a fool’s game so far.” Not for me! Every time I have made a formal prediction it has been spot on. I politely ask MikeN to see if he can prove me wrong. Note: I have not made a formal prediction about Omicron but have been suggesting that it will be harmless since early on.
Mike M. I said above ” I politely ask MikeN to see if he can prove me wrong.” But I had my Mikes confused. You are the one who seems to have an archive of past posts. I was wondering if you remember and of my formal predictions being off the mark. Thanks
This might explain it: “Omicron “replicates faster than the Delta variant in the human bronchus.â€
BUT: “it replicated less efficiently (more than 10 times lower) in the human lung tissue than the original SARS-CoV-2 virus, which may suggest lower severity of disease.â€
There is a link to the science in the tweet below:
https://twitter.com/aaronsibarium/status/1471123130517266434?s=20
MikeN
I’m not a college kid. 🙂
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No private individual or company would accept liability for opening specifically to infect any group with anything. Like it or not, the ‘side-effects’ of this activity would be comparable to or greater than the rate of mycardial events we are seeing in the young-vaccinated.
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Lots of parents wouldn’t send their kids to “special summer camps” to get them infected.
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If you are against any sort of “vaccine mandate”, just allowing private companies to choose to require people to be vaccinated, or rules that ‘encourage’ vaccination ‘too strongly’ (in your view), you ought to be against any similar mandate or encouragement for this.
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I certainly wouldn’t not have elected to send my kid to a special summer camp away to be infected give the uncertainty last summer or even this summer. As mild as Covid seems to generally be for kids, I’d rather have them vaccinated than send them to the equivalent of “Covid parties”.
It is both notable and predictable that the current (and future) covid surges are not being tied to politicians now. The regions of infection and holders of that regional power are not a favorable narrative. Biden said just about as many dumb things as Trump did here about covid (it will magically end, just like inflation), but we aren’t reminded of Biden’s promises and predictions every 12 seconds. Well maybe Biden doesn’t say quite the total volume of dumb things that Trump did, ha ha.
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It just boggles my mind that the media doesn’t recognize this, and even further thinks that the populace doesn’t recognize if for what it is, naked bias. Republican trust in the media at 10% and they blame the readers.
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Many/most kollege edumacated people really think they are immune to bias when the facts are that their big globs of biomass in their heads work the same as everyone else. Ejecting everyone from their social circles who thinks nonconforming thoughts just makes everything worse. Then comes the self righteousness … this part of humanity really hasn’t evolved much over the past 1000 years. Form groups for self protection … drool … pick up sticks and beat the other group fighting for your resources … drool … convince yourself the other group is pure evil so treating them abusively doesn’t break your in group ethics … slurp. We are all still 5 year olds from the dark ages in many ways.
The “failure” to replicate in the lower lung might be due to vaccine or prior infection t-cell immunity kicking in. I haven’t yet seen any good data on how omicron affects the unvaccinated and uninfected relatively. I’m not even sure there can be good data here as a lot of unvaccinated people have likely been infected and don’t even know it.
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There are so many apples and oranges here that definitive data is unlikely for a long time. Even examining the hospitalized to ICU ratio (omicron / delta) has problems as after vaccinations started kicking in they started admitting more people for hospitalization with lower levels of symptoms because of available capacity. I think we should be able to determine the sign (worse or better) easy enough but the magnitude may be a moving target.
Tom Scharf,
Count the bodies. It is more accurate (but not perfect!) and a lot easier….. dead/live is the perfect binary.
Russell Klier (Comment #207978): “I was wondering if you remember and of my formal predictions being off the mark.”
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I do not remember you making any interesting predictions. By “interesting” I mean something both non-obvious and specific enough to test.
Deaths are definitely the best factor, but are a lagging indicator. Also as we have seen the deaths/month vary wildly based on natural virus cycles that are poorly understood and the vaccine/infection immunity in the population provides some indeterminate amount of protection which will make the comparisons difficult. Once all this stuff gets put in a model for comparison I expect the same mass of uncertainty all these things end up with as the modeler predictably pronounces his initial hunch was validated by “math”.
The 6th circuit split 8-8 on the question of an en-banc hearing on the OSHA mandate case. The 8 judges who wanted an en-banc hearing all joined an opinion to that effect. Five judges opposed to the em-banc joined an opinion. The three judges who did not join an opinion all voted against em-banc, and are almost certainly the three judge panel that will hear the case: Two squishy George Bush RINOS and an Obama lefty. So it is looking like the three judge panel will lift the existing injunction against the OSHA emergency rule, and the parties in opposition to the OSHA mandate will immediately appeal that decision to the the SC. Eight judges of 16 are clearly ready to end the mandate, but three (chosen by chance?) will allow the mandate to proceed. I sure hope the SC appreciates that this is a time-sensitive issue and steps in quickly.
I see this occurring again this Covid season whereby Covid case increases are reported in the media as due to Thanksgiving and Christmas gatherings. Last year the effect could be visualized graphically as data processing during the holidays being repressed and then taken to account after the holidays causing a visual spike in the data. I recently read a WSJ article making the same assumptions as last year about Thanksgiving this year and predicting the same for Christmas. Last year, and I suspect this year also, the seasonal cycles kick in around these holidays and with the delayed reporting make these assumptions perilous. With Omicron I would not venture a guess about Christmas and whether the old assumptions might hold or not. Typical of modern journalism buried in the WSJ article was a quote from an academic indicating what I saw last year as a delayed reporting effect made the claims about the gathering effect an uncertain proposition or words to that effect.
I am not saying that the increased gathering during the holidays will not have an effect just that it can be overwhelmed by the seasonal and reporting effects. Effects that the WSJ article almost entirely ignored.
Anyway, I am going back and look at last year’s Thanksgiving and Christmas for mobility index and cases/deaths changes and the same for this year’s Thanksgiving for the US. If Omicron is a significant factor by Christmas/New Years weekend a comparison year over year might be of some interest.
Ca has reimposed a total mask mandate. I just ordered a new mask ($8) that appears to be about 30% (or less) closed based on what I can see of the models face through the mask. Should not hinder air flow enough to be noticeable. I was going to make one, but for that price why bother.
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Masks have been made mandatory, but nothing says they have to be effective.
Ed Forbes,
I have read that some regions are in fact requiring at least three layers of woven cloth. Maybe hard to enforce though. Three layers of mosquito screening would not restrict air flow, but would be wholly ineffective.
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I spent a week having to wear an n95 mask most of the time. It sucked.
A good mask should cause some duress in the breathing process. A great mask should show obvious bluing of the face and could make the wearer a candidate for the virtue signaling hall of fame.
Kenneth,
I can assure you that a properly fitted N95 caused me duress. It was quite unpleasant. On the airplane (overnight flight) I made sure my N95 mask was not properly fitted.
I have found that less than 19 out of 20 business and or employees around here don’t care if the nose is covered by the mask or not. Pure theater.
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In other news, San Francisco city mayor says she’s will be cracking down hard on city crime and calls bullshi! on defunding the police.
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There is the minor point that she was in favor of pulling $150M from the police just last year.
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If SF politicians are being “red pilled†on Woke policy, the Dems are in more trouble than I had thought.
South Africa is now three weeks into the current surge (two weeks since it really took off) with no apparent increase in deaths. In their previous surges, deaths lagged cases by a week or two. So unless something major has changed in their testing regime, it is looking good for omicron being mild.
SteveF, my son gave me an N95 mask early in the Covid pandemic and when I told him it was not working for me he said it probably was not fitted properly. When I told him it was affecting my breathing he said in that case it was working properly. It has been surgical masks for me ever since – even for formal events and, therefore, no fashion or virtue points for me.
Kenneth,
Jim and I wear cloth masks social dancing. Not N95– cloth. Those are a real PITA when exercising. But it’s required and the studio we go to sticks to whatever Governor Pritzker decrees. So we wear them.
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There are some local dance studios that don’t require the masks. Not turning them in. But yes, they exist.
I used to wear N95 masks when power sanding anti-fouling paint on the bottom of my boat. The masks were very unpleasant, but kept me from breathing vast quantities of copper oxide dust, and it was only for a couple of hours at a time. Wearing one all day long is going to be unacceptable for most everyone. So, the choices are: a mask that actually works which almost nobody will use, or a mask that doesn’t do much that people will use if required to. It is virtually all theater.
SteveF (Comment #207976) December 15th, 2021
angech,
“The good thing of reaching 70 is that if it all goes pear shaped I only have 10000 days to missâ€
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Your family must have a history of longevity. For most people reaching 70 it is more like 5000 days to miss.
A nonsmoking* low cholesterol [not that that is important] hypochondriac in Australia not America has a great life expectancy!
Coronary arteries one could drive a truck through, I was told 30 years ago.
However you are right, I was just being hopeful.
The longer I live the longer I will live probably doesn’t add another 5000 days on yet.
“[By the way has anyone had a real normal cold in the last year? they seem to have disappeared.]”
I get a nasty cold every 12 to 14 months like clockwork.
These generally have a similar progression from beginning to end. It starts with a general feeling of uneasiness followed by a sore throat and pains all over, then a cough, and then a runny nose which lasts for several days. And then it slowly goes away.
One of these showed up more or less on time in August. But it came a week or so after I had attended my 50th high school reunion. I had been vaxxed in May, 2021.
Anyway, I followed the progression of my symptoms very carefully and concluded that they were no different from what I usually experienced with my annual nasty cold. There was no loss of the senses of taste and smell.
I heard through the grapevine several months later that five people among the 150 or so attendees who had been at the August reunion had a COVID infection, and that roughly forty new COVID infections were traced to that one event.
Well, thank you very much, Class of 1971. Nevertheless, I still believe that what I had was my usual cold, not a COVID infection.
UK cases went to 79K over the past day setting a new record. They state the omicron doubling time is currently at 1.9 days. They will get some gigantic case numbers over the next week or so at that rate. The unreported case multiplier is anybody’s guess. The UK says they will start reporting the reinfection rate. They will eventually run out of fuel of course. No signs of anyone going into a major lockdown.
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It will be quite interesting to see where the peak ends up at. Past infections peaked without the fuel supply running out for whatever reason, we will see what happens here.
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I think we can say with confidence that any countries with a zero covid policy will not last long with this variant (China).
I have not had a viral infection ( common cold / flu) that I could notice in over 5 years now. I used to go down when I got them, but they are pretty rare now even as I am out and about in public quite a bit. Since the kids are no longer at home with me and I am now retired and out of the office environment, colds and flu now seem to be rare for me.
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Everyone around me seems to have come down with covid. Several hospitalized for a bit, but none with major issues. We have been socializing, but it has completely past me by. I argued my doctor into allowing antibody tests to see if I had been exposed but they come up clean.
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I have been on D, B, C, Zinc supplements and topical application of Ivermectin since covid first blew up. It was obvious then that it was more of an issue for those with existing medical issues and low levels of vitamin D than for those in general good health and that Ivermectin helped.
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No plans for me to get either the first set of shots or any of the boosters. It is becoming more and more obvious to me that the vaccine causes more harm than benefit. When fully vaccinated cruise ships get major outbreaks of covid, it is hard for me to see any benefit to taking the shots if you are in general good health.
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I see that the Japanese have now come to the same general treatment of covid as I have been on. For the shots, the Japanese will authorize them, but you have to sign a full disclosure document that states the risks of the vaccine and that you are aware of the risks. Ivermectin also has a major role in their treatment program.
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So for those of you taking the boosters, it looks like you will shortly be taking them on quarterly ( or sooner) schedules as their effectiveness seems to drop off quickly.
Ed Forbes,
Anecdotes are not data. I have had no colds, flu or otherwise for probably 5 years. No vitamin supplements or ivermectin at any time. I have taken three doses of Pfizer vaccine. I doubt there will be any recommendation for another booster any time soon, but we will see.
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Do you have a link which describes recommended protocols in Japan? I have read nothing about the use of ivermectin on a routine basis as a prophylactic anywhere except for tropical area with parasite diseases.
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BTW, 72% of the population in Japan is fully vaccinated, and virtually all of those over 65. There death rate per confirmed case is ~14% for those over 80, falling to 1 to 2% for those at 60, and very near zero for all younger groups; very much like the states. The Japanese have significantly reduced their already lower social contact rate, with 40% saying they avoid eating outside their home. And of course, the Japanese were consistent mask users even before covid. The very low rates of cases in Japan for sure have multiple causes.
When I tutored in person at the Lisle Library which was generally fairly packed with high school students and other library goers, I got a mild cold every year. I have not had a cold all year since Covid. I also have not tutored at the Lisle Library.
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It could be Covid reduced circulation of cold virus. It could be not tutoring at the library.
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Now that online tutoring is established I’ll likely never again tutor at the Library. I can report back later. 🙂
Ed Forbes
I’m pretty sure that way back before the vaccine were available I said that rate would be fine with me. I’d take monthly to avoid a moderate risk of hospitalization and death.
I used to give my cat insulin twice a day.
I have no issues if you don’t want to take them monthly like I do. But I’d take them.
SteveF,
Binary! The horror.
https://babylonbee.com/news/laid-off-journalist-trying-to-learn-to-code-horrified-to-discover-the-code-is-binary
Edit: The sad thing is that it took me a minute or two to get the point.
I think the UK must be under-reporting serious/critical cases. At worldometers it’s currently about 900 cases. But the seven day moving average of deaths is at 110. Maybe their definition of serious/critical is ‘certain to die in the next week’.
Angech,
I don’t know the statistics in Oz, but in the States a man has to reach age 94 before he has a 50% chance of reaching your (optimistic) 10,000 days from age 70. In the States, 4.6% of men alive at age 70 will be alive 10,000 days later. Could happen, but I wouldn’t count on it. 😉
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As I always say, getting old is tough, but easily better than the alternative.
DeWitt Payne (Comment #208007): “… serious/critical cases. At worldometers …”.
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They have that? I can’t find it. Maybe you could provide a link?
Mike M.,
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Serious, Critical is the ninth column in the table
Ideally it would be proportioned to the number of active cases, but that statistic is likely even more flawed.
Thanks, DeWitt. I was looking for a time series.
Mike M.,
You’re welcome.
Access to the underlying cumulative data would be nice. Somebody probably has it, but I don’t know who or where.
Different countries do identify serious cases differently. I know Israel uses a different definition (an oximeter reading below 94% will get you in I think).
Ed Forbes,
I invite you to tour your local intensive care unit and count up the vaccinated versus unvaccinated covid patients. That’s the best information there is for the efficacy of vaccines. There is certainly some risk with the vaccine. The known small risks of the vaccines themselves and the unknowns of long term vaccine risks have to be weighed. Feel free to decide for yourself.
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Current NYT data says death risk is 13X higher for the unvaccinated, infection risk is 5X higher. (with delta mostly). Your age bracket and general health are obviously big factors. If your immune system is robust you may be fine, getting vaccinated at a young age lowers your risk from very low to very very low.
Ed Forbes, if I had it to do over again, I wouldn’t have gotten the vaccination in May, 2021. If I had known then what I know now, then the personal risk-versus-reward calculation would have favored not getting the vaccine.
Prior to May, 2021, I had already been using the same COVID defense approach you have outlined, except that I was not using Ivermectin as a preventative measure. Between March 2020 and May 2021, I had been exposed to any number of COVID infected people and did not contract the virus — as far as I know, anyway.
If I read SteveF correctly, he says that anecdotal information shouldn’t be relied upon in forming a personal judgement about what works and what doesn’t in fighting the COVID pandemic. I beg to differ.
Three of my long-time colleagues have been lost to COVID infections. The one lost most recently had been fully vaccinated. All three had co-morbidities, all three required hospitalization, all three were initially treated with Remdesivir and other drugs per CDC guidelines, and all three ended up on a ventilator and died in the ICU. Neither Ivermectin nor HCQ nor similar legacy drugs were used in their treatment.
Nearly all of the forty attendees at my August high school reunion who contracted a COVID infection at the event had been vaccinated. Among the attendees who required hospitalization, all of that subclass of victims had been vaccinated.
About half of my relatives, neighbors, and work colleagues have now had a COVID infection, vaccinated and unvaccinated alike. Two have had an infection twice, once before being vaccinated, once after. The two infections contracted post vaccination both had more severe symptoms than did the pre-vax infections.
Two personal acquaintances have had heart attacks within a few days of getting the third Pfizer booster. One of those heart attacks was fatal and occurred in a man who was in excellent health for his age.
Here is the situation we face.
The vaccines allow infection and transmission. The spectral width of their genome targeting is relatively narrow. Their overall effectiveness over time is relatively short, both because they lose their efficacy internally and because the COVID virus is itself mutating too fast for a vaccine-only health strategy to cope with.
The current vaccines give a false sense of security that a person can gain a reasonable degree of protection from the shot. Not perfect, but reasonably effective. The problem here is that sooner or later, almost everyone will get a COVID infection from one mutational variant or another, the vaccinated and the unvaccinated alike. It’s only a matter of time.
For me personally, my choice is not to give in to the temptation to use the vaccines as a security blanket in lieu of being cautious in what I do and where I go, or in lieu of using my own COVID defense cocktail: Vitamin D3, B12, C, plus Zinc supplements and quercitin.
In addition, I’ve invested in a bootleg supply of ivermectin to use when I come down with the inevitable COVID infection.
Beta Blocker,
If we are going to compare based on who we know:
I know a number of people who got Covid with symptoms. All were unvaccinated. Every. Single. One. (These include: My dance teacher’s wife, another dance teacher. They has light cases. Husband-wife pair of neighbors– wife hospitalized. Their three kids all got covid with varying degrees of symptoms. (The Downs daughter is the oldest and had the most severe symptoms.) My sisters father in-law– who died early on. He was one of the first fatalities in Illinois. Two students I tutored — because they had Covid. Another dance student who was hospitalized. )
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I don’t know any vaccinated person who got it. I’m sure some did, but either their symptoms were so mild they didn’t get diagnosed or they didn’t get it.
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I also suspect I know unvaccinated people who got Covid without symptoms. The infected without symptoms tend to not have gotten tested at the key time.
Tom Scharf (Comment #208014): “Current NYT data says death risk is 13X higher for the unvaccinated, infection risk is 5X higher. (with delta mostly).”
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What time frame? I am thinking of the nonsense last spring about how 99% of the cases in 2021 were among the unvaccinated. And was the data age adjusted?
Steve….Japan was/is in the news quite a bit. Not covered by the majors of course. Simple internet search finds a number of news articles on the subject. Here are a couple I found quickly, not necessarily the most in-depth. Best, as normal, to do your own search and review for more complete coverage of the issue.
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https://freewestmedia.com/2021/11/03/japan-sees-huge-drop-in-cases-after-it-switches-to-ivermectin/
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https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/japan-approves-warning-labels-on-covid-vaccines/
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Beta Blocker (Comment #208015) ….. It was obvious very early in the treatment regime that if you had covid, being place on ventilation was very nearly a death sentence. Not from the virus but from the ventilation severely damaging the inflamed lungs. More died from the treatment than from the virus
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Here is 1 article from April 2020 on the subject of covid and ventilation
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https://thecommonsenseshow.com/conspiracy-economics-education/bombshell-plea-nyc-icu-doctor-covid-19-condition-oxygen-deprivation-not-pneumonia-ventilators-may
There is a lot of misinformation floating around on Japan so I would run that by fact checkers (eg https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2021/11/27/no-ivermectin-did-not-help-japan-bring-down-covid-19-coronavirus-delta-surge/?sh=43fe10252938)
However, the studies and meta-analyses around ivermectin continue to be very interesting, not the least for the issues with methodology. This is interesting meta-analysis with good support for ivermectin. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Norman-Fenton/publication/353794395_Bayesian_Meta_Analysis_of_Ivermectin_Effectiveness_in_Treating_Covid-19_with_sensitivity_analysis_to_account_for_possibly_flawed_studies/links/61123ce6169a1a0103ee1689/Bayesian-Meta-Analysis-of-Ivermectin-Effectiveness-in-Treating-Covid-19-with-sensitivity-analysis-to-account-for-possibly-flawed-studies.pdf
“It’s an oxygen deprivation condition, and the use of ventilators may be doing more harm than good with some patients. ”
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With ventilators being one of the only widespread solutions to fixing a severe oxygenation problem, it is hardly any surprise that people placed on ventilators are more likely to die. The more severe the oxygenation problem, the more pressure required to try and fix it. It’s a trade off as to which will kill you first.
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That said, I believe it’s true that vents were overused early on, and quite possibly settings were suboptimal, relying too much on keeping blood O2 up to acceptable levels instead of taking the O2 hit and maintaining at much lower levels than normal. Chronically low O2 levels carry risks of their own, (like a machine running with too little oil) especially in those not adapted to such.
Ed Forbes,
The warning about myocarditis is real, accurate, and sensible…. and backed by solid statistical evidence. I would NOT urge a son of mine between 14 and 24 to get the vaccine; too much downside and not enough upside. I think the FDA and CDC are letting political expediency (vaccination is always good, good, good!) interfere with sensible recommendations for young men.
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The other article is, AFAICT, utter nonsense. There is no credible evidence that many people in Japan are taking or have ever taken ivermectin nor a cocktail of vitamin suppliments. It is obvious that the *actual* government recommendations for treatment do not include ivermectin. I have spent enough time in Japan to recognize that their culture tends to limit social interactions anyway and they have always been focused on social distancing when sick (or suspecting oncoming illness) and nearly maniacal about masks. Comparisons to most other countries are apples to oranges.
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Absent double blind studies showing efficacy for ivermectin (or any other treatment for that matter, including vitamin supplements), I remain *highly* skeptical of all such claims. And I will always be skeptical of anecdotes.
SteveF,
I still think that the studies in the US on HCQ were designed to fail for political reasons. I haven’t paid attention to ivermectin. Anecdotal evidence is not completely useless, but it can’t prove safety and effectiveness.
DeWitt,
The answer to questions of efficacy is always the same: well designed double-blind studies. The rest is mostly confusion and worse… quackery.
Mike M,
The NYT updates those vaccinated/unvaccinated numbers every week from CDC data they claim. The numbers have come down over the past few months, it looks like delta put a dent in them. There is a running “Rates for vaccinated and unvaccinated†trend here:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html
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“Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This data was made available on Nov. 22, 2021, and is expected to update monthly. The C.D.C. releases the data as a weekly figure per 100,000 and is presented here as a daily average per 100,000 for consistency with other population-adjusted figures on this page. See the notes on the C.D.C.’s page for more information.â€
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#rates-by-vaccine-status
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If you click through to the CDC page you can get age group data. The last update was October for some reason.
Interesting look on ivermectin studies
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https://ivmmeta.com/
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Ivermectin for COVID-19: real-time meta analysis of 71 studies
Tom, that CDC pages is an excellent resource, matches equivalent data from UK. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19byvaccinationstatusengland/deathsoccurringbetween2januaryand24september2021
Looking at rate per 100,000 is the right way to assess it; then people are not misled by Simpson’s paradox as no. of vaxed increases.
The raw unvaxed no.s though don’t account for people who have had the disease and thus have some immunity. The drop could be due to running out of prone people or due to improving treatments.
> Three layers of mosquito screening would not restrict air flow, but would be wholly ineffective.
When they required it for my kids to play basketball, including on the court, I gave them ones made out of jerseys.
European Environmentalists Have New Plan For Cargo Ships Based on Paris Climate Agreement Compliance
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“… the extremely well educated scientists, physicists, climatologists, sustainability engineers and cross functional decarbonization problem solvers for the planetary saving climate justice agenda, have invented…. wait for it….
….Sailboats!..â€
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https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2021/12/16/european-environmentalists-have-new-plan-for-cargo-ships-based-on-paris-climate-agreement-compliance/
Ed Forbes
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Well… yes. One can say “interesting”. And what’s “interesting” is how obviously flawed that “meta” analysis is.
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I absolutely disdain this “meta analysis”. Why? Because I could very quickly see they do not exclude studies that used 2 treatments simultaneously.
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For example: this study by Caravalo which took me no time to find at all is cited as evidence for “ivermectin”.
“Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Topical Ivermectin + Iota-
Carrageenan in the Prophylaxis against COVID-19 in Health
Personnel”
Oh. Geeh. Do I see iota-Carageenan in the title? Yes. Yes I do. And if you read methods, the treatment included both Iota-Carageenan. So, it could be
1) the iota-Carageenan is efficatious by itself
2) the ivermectic is efficatious by itself or
3) the are only efficatious if taken together or
4) false positive.
Now, as it happens, many around here know I kinda-sorta favor the idea iota-Carageenan is efficatious by itself. (Owing to the fact that
(a) there is a plausible mechanism for nasal sprays with this ingredient working on respiratory viruses
(b) there are in-vitro studies showing it works in vitro
(c) there are animal studies with Covid.
(d) there is some, though weak, human evidence it works on other respiratory viruses,
(e) it’s being tested by multiple research groups and phase III tests are being designed to avoid being underpowered.
(f) other than studies where it is combined with Ivermectin, those studies aren’t criticized for ridiculous sloppiness,
(g) some of the studies are on how to better deliver it (which suggests people are convinced enough to spend time and money on deliering it better and
(h) it’s not getting the hype.)
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But while I’m rooting for iota-Carageenan, I’m waiting for some Phase III trials before I decree it works. (It’s cheap and harmless, so I’ve mixed some up and use at home– intermittently though. I was really good about it before I got vaxxed!) And even if it “works”, I would never, ever, ever suggest someone use the nasal spray and not get vaxxedd!!! That would just be stupid.
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But the fact is: If a study uses two treatments, any unbiased meta analysis of one of the treatments should exclude that study. It’s clear the researchers presenting their “analysis” at the site you cite doesn’t do that. That means they are unforgivably sloppy, and I don’t trust them.
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And no: it’s not sufficient to include it in the “initial cut” and later exclude. It should be excluded at the outset because it obviously can’t be used as evidence for Ivermectin. It’s tendentious to keep it and then suggest their result is strong enough to survive excluding things.
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And Caravallo isn’t the only one using two treatments:
Under the peer -reviwed list, starting from the top:
“Chowdhury”. (Ivermectin 200µgm/kg single dose + Doxycycline 100mg BID for 10d) is compared to another treatment.
Espitia-Hernandez et al (ivermectin + AZ + cholecalciferol and )
Mahmud (with Doxycycline)
Svente-Fonseca compares various treatment and says “This paper focuses on HCQ, event counts for ivermectin are not provided.”
F. A. Cadegiani “Early COVID-19 therapy with azithromycin plus nitazoxanide, ivermectin
or hydroxychloroquine in outpatient settings significantly “. So: once again, a mixed therapy and compariso to something else. Those getting ivermectin also got a variety of other things. (This seemed to vary– which is fine given that they were all patients. But the positive benefit could have been the azithromycin.)
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Ok… that was starting from the top– and I haven’t found a non-mixed one yet!
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Anyone with critical thinking skills who sees they include studies using two treatments but give all the “credit” to Ivermectin know those doing the meta analysis ought to redo their exclusion criteria. They should throw out the studies that do not provide evidence for Ivermectin. And they should throw them out from the start, not keep them and then pat themselve on the back for tossing a fraction of them!!!!!
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Maybe they should only toss a few papers. Maybe they should toss a lot. I found so many they should toss that I’m not going to try to count. But because they did not have remotely reasonable exclusion criteria, I think the people writing that paper either have near-zero critical thinking skills or they are shills for a pre-ordained result (in favor of ivermectin.)
“.. Dr. Joseph Ladapo, Florida surgeon general and secretary of the Florida Department of Health, issued a statewide public service announcement supporting commonsense Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) prevention strategies, including optimizing vitamin D levels, staying active, eating nutrient-dense food and boosting the immune system with supplement….â€
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“. The HealthierYouFL.org website has been urging Floridians to talk to their health care providers about how certain supplements or foods containing vitamins and minerals might help boost the immune system. These vitamins and minerals include zinc, vitamin D, vitamin C and quercetin, which are all known to have shown a positive impact on mitigating COVID-19 risks..â€
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https://www.newstarget.com/2021-12-17-surgeon-general-supports-commonsense-covid-prevention-strategies.html
Lucia….is there a full study using both vaccinated and unvaccinated control that supports covid vaccine use? The only one I have seen was stoped early. As far as I can see, there are NO long term studies with control on the effects and effectiveness of the vaccines.
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Ed,
Yes.
Please clarify. I think you are playing games with the word “full”.
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There are experimental studies involving randomly chosen subjects placed into treatment and control groups. They were conducted long enough to show the treated groups suffered far less death, hospitalization and illness than the untreated groups. That meets the definition of “full”.
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And regardless of any answer to your question, the meta analysis at the link you provided is so bad it can be described as “utterly sucks”. The issue I pointed out is not a question of “full” or “partial” or “stopped early” or anything trivial. It is simply the case that in many of those papers (in fact the first four out of five on the top list– called “peer review” the efficacy of Ivermectin was not studied at all because the study intentionally used more than one treatment on the “treatment group”. So every single subject in the treatment got two treatments. In the fifth paper– Svente-Fonseca– they did not count event cases for those who took Ivermectin!
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Now, perhaps there are papers that actually study Ivermectin further down the list. But the fact that the first five out of five do not means that “study” is just a waste of time. The authors need to weed out the ones that don’t study Ivermectin by itself.
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Honestly, I would be happy if Ivermectin works. For all I know it does. But that “meta analysis” strongly suggests there exists some people who so much want it to work that they are willing to suspend all critical thought and push something like that.
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Readers can be forgiven for not noticing how absolutely sucky that write up is Maybe it doesn’t occur to them to check the underlying papers. But the authors …. well, I don’t know if they are incompetent or intentionally misleading. But that meta analysis sucks.
Ed–
As for Dr Lapado: Sure. People should try to eat a healthy diet, a multivitamine is probably prudent, exercising is wise. Yada. Yada. Most of that unremarkable advice predates covid.
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Other than the quercetin, I’m trying to do all the things Dr. Lapado suggests. It’s prudent. I also got vaccinated. There is no reason why having a healthy lifestyle and getting a vaccine should be seen as either/or.
Writing up sage advice about healthy lifestyle is all well and good. But it really has nothing to do with
(a) whether a vaccine is helpful. (It is) or
(b) whether invermectin works. (It might, but there is scant evidence, and a whole lot of just crap ‘evidence’.)
Ed,
All the original vaccine trials were done using double blind testing (vaccine vs placebo) in unvaccinated people and showed very good results. After the initial trial many of the placebo participants chose to be vaccinated. A subset of them continued for long term testing against vaccinated people which has shown the vaccines to be safe.
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Vaccinated people die all the time of unrelated causes so they have to statistically compare these death rates against the normal background death rate of unvaccinated people to see if the vaccine might be a cause. It’s messy, especially early on.
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However, just recently the CDC has recommended the mRNA vaccines over the J & J vaccines because of elevated cardiac problems risk, especially among young people. It’s important to understand what that decision really was, the CDC says the mRNA vaccine poses less risk than the J & J and the the J & J risk is a one in a million type of risk for certain people. But that risk is not present in the mRNA vaccines. If we * only * had the J & J then it would be worth the risk tradeoff to take it, but since we have a choice the new data says don’t take the J & J.
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This was a result of the ongoing long term studies of the risk of vaccines. mRNA is new biotech so there is always an extra risk here that they don’t fully understand and can predict these longer term risks, even though they do understand their short term benefits at this point.
Ed Forbes,
Ivermectin will only be widely accepted after double blind studies show it works. Post-hoc studies with no controls are not convincing.
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WRT merchant marine sailboats: The idea at least has high humor value.
SteveF,
I just can’t get the image of a container ship with sails on top out of my mind. As I remember there was some experimentation with rotating cylinders rather than fabric sails, but the thought of moving the center of pressure to a crosswind even higher on a container ship is just too much.
As I remember, the clipper ships kept all of their cargo below decks. That would pretty much limit cargo to high density, high value items.
DeWitt,
Wind flipping over container ships is a potential outcome. I suspect the control systems would be set up to avoid that. But in any case, I rather doubt sail powered container ships could ever keep to a delivery schedule. It is, or should be, just a joke.
Not very much like ancient sailing ships.
https://www.asme.org/topics-resources/content/high-tech-sails-bring-wind-power-to-big-ships
I have seen other articlea with wind tower designs creating vortex to drive turbines but couldnt find it with a quick look.
A different take here:
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/12/swedish-firm-wind-powered-cargo-ships
it will be interesting to see how that performs.
Since container ships are just sitting around for days (weeks!) at the California ports, operators could get together and schedule arrivals to avoid the waits…. by slowing speeds in transit. Total fuel consumption is higher at higher speeds. Slowing down by 1/3 would reduce total fuel consumption by 15 to 20%. Gov Newsom could then claim his policies that are slowing ship unloading are really an effort to reduce global warming. 😉
Or they could use nuclear. It’s not like it hasn’t been done, just sayin…
[Edit: I often get the sense that these proposals aren’t actually about solving the problems they proport to address.]
It looks like Ο is starting up in FL. The new case rate has doubled in the last two days from ~4,000 to ~8,000/day. The UK is seeing rapid growth as well, but from a much higher baseline.
DeWitt –
Where do you get those numbers? The weekly report from Florida’s Dept. of Health, which is following a format they established months ago, shows case counts but doesn’t break it down by variant.
Edit: sorry, I misread your post. You’re inferring that omicron is responsible for the large increase in case count, certainly a logical inference.
DeWitt,
If that increase is from omicron, then we will know pretty soon if the new strain is more/less/or similar in virulence. Florida pretty consistently has somewhere near 1 death for 100 confirmed cases (with deaths lagging cases in time, of course), unlike the UK, which has about 1 death in 350 confirmed cases. The difference is almost certainly due mainly to the near 100% vaccination rate among those over 50 in the UK; higher testing/confirmation in the UK may also contribute to the difference. Florida still has a significant fraction of people over 50 who are not vaccinated. I remain puzzled by this.
marc bofill,
At current petroleum prices, nuclear is considerably higher in lifetime cost than conventionally powered ships (eg https://www.cbo.gov/publication/41454). That analysis is for smaller ships than used for container freight, so the comparison is not exact; bigger nuclear powered ships might be somewhat lower in lifetime costs. But the big problems are: 1) relying on freight companies to safely operate nuclear powered ships (note these ships are flagged in countries with the most lax maintenance and staffing regulations), and 2) the real possibility that marine reactors, which usually use very highly enriched uranium to avoid the need for refueling over the lifetime of the ship, could be diverted and used as the starting point for a rapid jump to nuclear weapons.
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I would be shocked if nuclear reactors were widely used on civilian ships. Probably won’t ever happen.
Steve,
All true, plenty of problems with doing that. I still think it’d be a more feasible option than sails [or kites] for cargo though.
Shrug.
[Edit: Thanks for the link.]
I think it’s an open question whether nuclear could be made significantly cheaper if society wasn’t so paranoid about “radioactivity”.
Everybody is going to get hit with omicron. At this point it is really only a matter of how hard and how long it will be. Who knows? My guess is shortish and hardish. Since Russell is never wrong maybe he can tell us, ha ha. Florida will be an interesting test case, they took a delta let it rip “impulse function” so perhaps their omicron impulse function will be lower than most. The northeast and Midwest look like they will get simultaneous delta and omicron surges. January may not be pleasant but hopefully by February we will be on the downside.
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There are reports that South Africa may be peaking which is encouraging.
Tom Scharf,
“The northeast and Midwest look like they will get simultaneous delta and omicron surges.”
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Yup, and part of the reason is they they tried so hard to “flatten the curve”… which somehow morphed into nearly endless covid restrictions, all of which did little but delay the inevitable. Those who have not been exposed will be; it is inevitable. The smartest path forward for us oldsters is to get vaccination and a booster, and make sure that we insist on treatment with monoclonal IV should we get covid… at least until Pfizer’s oral anti-viral becomes available. That treatment is not cheap, but cheaper than funeral services, and is advantageous in other ways as well, like not becoming dead. 😉
Tom Scharf,
“I think it’s an open question whether nuclear could be made significantly cheaper if society wasn’t so paranoid about “radioactivityâ€.”
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Making nuclear power reactors a very safe “commodity” technology is the only rational path forward to reduce CO2 emissions. That doesn’t mean it will happen, and certainly it will not happen for a very long time. We have utter know-nothing nutcakes currently on the bridge of the ship of state. They would much prefer national and global poverty over nuclear power. Expansion of nuclear power will not happen until those on the bridge are replaced by rational people.
I am not holding my breath.
SteveF (Comment #208049): “I would be shocked if nuclear reactors were widely used on civilian ships. Probably won’t ever happen.”
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I agree as to conventional reactors. But if some of the supposedly cheap, safe small modular designs (NuScale, TerraPower, etc) pan out, it might change the picture.
I first read about windtower turbines for ships with experiments in the late 70s I think. The motivation was purely about saving money but it didnt take off. Technology has moved a long way since then. While some of these ships are about “saving the planet”, I suspect most are driven by saving money. Something this might achieve in way that nuclear wouldnt.
Interference with loading/unloading cranes and uncertainty in arrival times are apparently what is holding this technology back.
SteveF: “Ivermectin will only be widely accepted after double blind studies show it works. Post-hoc studies with no controls are not convincing.”
Several points:
1: Early in the pandemic, ivermectin and HCQ used in combination with zinc were being recommended by contrarian physicians as off-label anti-viral therapeutics based on the known pharmacological actions of these drugs internally. Those physicians weren’t coming out of nowhere in choosing their own treatments for a COVID infection, as the MSM did then and still does now continue to claim.
2: In the context of a health emergency, these contrarian physicians justified the off-label use of ivermectin and HCQ in combination with zinc knowing full well that any positive results they themselves observed would, by definition, be considered ‘anecdotal’ in comparison with double blind confirmation studies.
3: Because the results those physicians report are technically anecdotal, and cannot be otherwise by definition, is that a justification to completely discount and ignore any positive results those contrarian physicians observe?
4: In designing a double-blind confirmation study for ivermectin, HCQ — and the new anti-viral drugs coming from Pfizer and Merck which are similar to ivermectin and HCQ in their internal pharmacological actions — should those studies not be including zinc supplements in combination with the drug being studied, given that one primary benefit of this class of anti-virals, the old and the new alike, is that they all enhance the known effectiveness of zinc in preventing replication of a virus?
IMHO, the speed with which COVID is mutating makes the use of vaccination as the primary public health strategy a hopeless endeavor. The virus is now endemic. It was always going to become endemic.
That Big Pharma is pushing the use of their own patented anti-virals which are similar to ivermectin and HCQ in their internal pharmacological actions, but which are greatly more expensive, tells a big story all by itself.
Beta,
I assume you are asking real rather than rhetorical questions, though I am not certain.
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“is that a justification to completely discount and ignore any positive results those contrarian physicians observe?”
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Completely? Maybe, maybe not, but the best that could possibly come out of that kind of non-controlled study is a suggestion for a double-blind placebo controlled study.
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“should those studies not be including zinc supplements in combination with the drug being studied, given that one primary benefit of this class of anti-virals, the old and the new alike, is that they all enhance the known effectiveness of zinc in preventing replication of a virus?”
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Donno. The Merck and Pfizer drugs most certainly were not tested in combination with zinc supplements. The best available evidence (based on double blind study data) is that the Merck drug is moderately effective (30% reduction in risk of serious illness), while the Pfizer oral anti-viral (taken in combination with a drug that suppresses the rapid breakdown of the active antiviral drug in the body) shows ~89% (best estimate) reduction in hospitalization and death among those at risk for serious illness (elderly, people with comorbidities). If you think the Merck and Pfizer drugs would be more effective when taken with zinc supplements, then perhaps you can suggest that to Merck and Pfizer. If you think a double-blind placebo controlled study using zinc supplements would demonstrate effectiveness of HCQ or ivermectin, then perhaps you could convince a foundation to fund the study.
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“That Big Pharma is pushing the use of their own patented anti-virals which are similar to ivermectin and HCQ in their internal pharmacological actions, but which are greatly more expensive, tells a big story all by itself.”
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Please spare me this nonsense. Those companies have already given away the property rights to generic manufacturers in lower income countries. The Pfizer antiviral is expected to cost under $1,000 for a 5-day treatment in the States….. which is far less than the cost of a day in the hospital, and very cheap compared to having your family pay for your funeral. In Africa, it will be closer to $25 for a 5-day treatment.
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The Merck and Pfizer drugs are demonstrably effective. There is very little credible evidence that ivermectin is effective. After one small placebo controlled study on ivermectin was published, claiming *moderately* positive results in low risk patients, the following comment on the study was published in the same journal. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8225296/
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The authors of the comment explain why it is very unlikely ivermectin is effective: the cell culture results with ivermectin showed a 50% reduction in viral replication only with *50 times* the recommended dosage for ivermectin in people; this is 50 times the dose the patients in the placebo controlled study actually received. An effective dose would be toxic and likely fatal.
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I get that you are 100% anti-big pharma and think the vaccines are useless, and that is perfectly OK with me. But I doubt you are going to convince many people to not get vaccinated and not take an effective antiviral should they get covid. Each day the FDA delays in approval of the Pfizer drug probably adds 800 more to the death total. The real scandal here is not that Pfizer will charge a lot for a life-saving drug, it is that the FDA is, yet again, dragging its feet and sending people to their graves for no good reason at all. IMO, it is an organization than needs to be disbanded by Congress and a different organization created.
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And that is the last of the time I will spend on the subject of ivermectin. Cio.
Looks like Manchin is tanking the BBB bill. Not that Sanders et. al. will notice, but this is doing the Democrats a favor.
Tom Scharf,
I sure hope Manchin sticks to his guns and doesn’t let the Dems pass a totally bogus bill that understates costs by a factor of 3. The worst part of all is that the things in the bill are almost 100% useless, and in many cases guaranteed to make the lives of most voters worse, not better. Combine that with eliminating the cap on state and local tax deductions for the very wealthy living in blue states, and you have a perfect storm of ugly, stupid, destructive policies, all rolled into one bill: everything bad, nothing good.
It seems that the White House is accusing Manchin of going back on his word; in effect saying that he is a liar. Yeah, that will win him over.
Isn’t Manchin saying what the newspapers always reported he said? Seems to me he is.
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The White House is going to have to convince Manchin’s voters he lied — and make them care– for their accusation to have any effect. I’m suspecting it won’t.
The voters in KY mostly don’t care about what is in the BBB package….. if anything they actively oppose most of it. Besides, Manchin is old enough that he can retire when his term is up.
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The unhinged left does the same whenever someone says no. Berating and bitching at Manchin won’t help. Changing policies is the only real answer, but they can’t do that. After Jan 2 2022, what the unhinged left says won’t matter.
Beta Blocker,
That looks rhetorical. So answer this rhetorical one first: Who is completely discounting anectodotal evidence? (As far as I can tell no one. Tons of people would be happy for the anecdotal evidence to be used to motivate someone to do a real study. That’s the way science often works.)
Looks rhetorical again.
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But… sure, if someone wants to study the effect of “Ivermectin + Zinc” to “Zinc only” and/or to “Nothing” they should jolly well do them. But if the do a stody of “Ivermectin & Zinc” vs “Nothing” the study cant tel us whether Ivermectin only works with Zinc having no effect or Zinc only works with Ivermectin having no effect or what have you.
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Besides that, the ridiculous meta analysis didn’t notice that they weren’t only combining Ivermectin with zinc. And it’s often not compared to “nothing”. In some it’s compared th HQC. For all we know the “other” treatment kills people– so the effect isn’t that the “better” one cure, but that it fails to kill.
Perhaps. If so, that’s unfortunate. But it doesn’t magically cure the deficiencies in the various and sundry “studies” if Ivermectin– which are many.
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Perhaps. In fact, I think many people here agree with you and always expected it to become endemic. That isn’t evidence in favor of Ivermectin. (Or are you just changing the subject away from Ivermectic because you know it doesn’t? I’m guessing that’s the rhetorical device at work here.)
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Ok… perhaps. But once again: That’s not evidence in favor of ivermectin or HCQ.
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If you want to show Ivermectin or HCQ works, you need evidence they work. Not conspiracy theories about “big pharma” wanting to make “big $$$). Not stories about how hopeless everything will be if they don’t work.
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Go fund a good ivermectin or HCQ study. Wait for the results. Report back. Or wait for someone else to do it. But meanwhile, the conspiracy theories or argument by “hopelessness” aren’t evidence either works.
lucia (Comment #208065): “Isn’t Manchin saying what the newspapers always reported he said? Seems to me he is.”
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Exactly. Which is why Psaki’s claim is so ridiculous. And so unlikely to be helpful.
SteveF,
Manchin represents WVA, not KY. At one point Manchin did say he wouldn’t support a BBB bill that cost more than $1.75T. So with lots of smoke, mirrors and general fakery, i.e. sunsetting programs after as little as one year and a maximum of six years while costing for ten years, the CBO scored the BBB at $1.75T. So technically, Psaki may be correct. But Manchin has been complaining about inflation for some time while the administration has made the fatuous claim that BBB would reduce inflation.
On the news this morning the Democrats claim to have been caught off guard by Manchin’s announcement. I guess they assumed that he would fold like he has done in the past. But the pressure they have put on him and Sinema was practically designed to make him dig in.
DeWitt Payne (Comment #208071): “Manchin did say he wouldn’t support a BBB bill that cost more than $1.75T. So with lots of smoke, mirrors and general fakery, i.e. sunsetting programs after as little as one year and a maximum of six years while costing for ten years, the CBO scored the BBB at $1.75T. So technically, Psaki may be correct.”
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Manchin also made it clear that he would not accept budgeting trickery. So his upper limit (I thought it was $1.5 T) was for a true ten year accounting. The CBO put the ten year cost of the bill that just died at about $5T, of which only about $1.5T was funded. Psaki is either lying or delusion or both. Par for the course for the Biden White House.
Another Covid effect… the movie theaters are on life support. From Peggy Noonan “Mr. Spielberg plus great old American film should equal huge blockbuster. “West Side Story’s†unsuccessful release tells us that we have undergone a fundamental shift in how we watch movies in America. and
“‘West Side Story’ and the Decline of the Movie Theater The remake is wonderful. Its poor performance at the box office suggests streaming is here to stay.”
Covid certainly moved our household into the streaming world and I see no reason to go back.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/west-side-story-and-the-decline-of-the-bijou-streaming-movies-shows-theaters-lincoln-center-11639693733?mod=opinion_featst_pos3
I do not know about you guys but Manchin is first and foremost a politician and I do not trust politicians. He is also a Democrat and already committed to $1.75 trillion in spending and taxes. He has to convince the good old boys and girls of West Virginia that he is fighting for fiscal sanity with one hand and on the other to follow his Democrat instincts to grow government and tax and spend.
BBB is not dead and to date all the acting and orchestrating is actually good for Manchin and the progressives. I am waiting for the ads where Manchin is pushing the old lady in a wheelchair over the cliff with the Republicans in the background cheering him on. You aint seen nothin yet.
Where the Democrats are saying that Manchin went back on his word was what he said in private meetings with Biden. Now you will never hear what was actually said, but that either, or better, both sides are lying should come as no surprise.
Manchin effectively said the budget gimmicks were never going to get his vote. If they put up an honest bill of “only” $1.5T then he might go for it. As it sits I doubt that will happen. This is mostly a posturing exercise now and a lot of progressives are OK with having someone to blame as long as their grand and noble intentions are duly noted for the next election cycle.
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I’ve watched Manchin for decades (being from WV), he is not a progressive, but he could be wooed with a big payoff to the state of WV I suspect. Essentially pave the hillsides with solar panels and wind farms.
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Forcing a senate vote on the bill will cost Manchin exactly zero votes in the state of WV when he votes No. A recent poll had WV opposing the bill 3 to 1, basically the same margin they voted for Trump.
DeWitt,
“Manchin represents WVA,”
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Indeed, I miss-wrote his state.
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There were lots of really bad things in the bill, but what I think killed the negotiations with Manchin was the refusal to accurately account for the biggest expenditure in the package: $300 per month, cash payment, for each child. No questions asked, no work requirements, not a tax credit, and with no income limitation below $115K per year for a head of household. It is just “free money” sent each month for having children. Accurately accounted for over 10 years, this consumed nearly all the “advertised” total price of $1.75 trillion, leaving nothing for other programs on the BBB wish list.
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I think Manchin was actually pretty clear: his limit was with no budget gimmicks. Without gimmicks, the progressives could not get all the programs they wanted.
Kenneth,
“He has to convince the good old boys and girls of West Virginia that he is fighting for fiscal sanity with one hand and on the other to follow his Democrat instincts to grow government and tax and spend.”
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You could be right, but I hope you are wrong, and that the BBB bill is in fact dead. Any further action on that progressive wish list will be some time after the first of the year, when continuing inflation and ever lower participation in the workforce may make it a lot more obvious that there is real risk of ‘stagflation’… which the BBB programs would only worsen.
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I will keep my fingers crossed that the Dems won’t do too much more economic and social damage before they lose control of the House, and perhaps also the Senate.
Manchin knows how to win hearts and minds in WV:
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“I knew where they were and I knew what they could and could not do. They just never realized it because they figured, surely to God we can move one person, surely we can badger and beat one person up, surely we can get enough protesters to make that person uncomfortable enough,†he said. “Well, guess what? I’m from West Virginia. I’m not from where they’re from, and they can just beat the living crap out of people and think they’ll be submissive, period.â€
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It takes almost no effort in WV to rise the ire of the people against out of staters who want to push people around. This is how a Democrat gets elected in WV.
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“They know the real reason what happened. They won’t tell you and I’m not going to,†Manchin said about the White House.
Pushed to elaborate, Manchin said, “It’s staff driven. I understand staff, it’s not the president, it’s the staff. And they drove some things and they put some things out that were absolutely inexcusable and they know what it is and that’s it.â€
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Looks like the administration got desperate and tried some hardball action against Manchin. Very predictable outcome.
SteveF (Comment #208077)
But those gimmicks are evidently OK with 49 Democrat senators and all the House Democrats. I believe from what I heard from Manchin that his opposition to the gimmicks, which were clearly in the bill and so reported early on, came only lately. If he maintains his opposition, the taxes for the bill to pass on reconciliation would have be for the 10 year period. I would not be surprised if the Democrats could come up with these taxes. The obvious choices are the wealthy and corporations. Voters are pretty much in favor of taxing the wealthy and corporations. The office that grades these bills for reconciliation does not take into account how taxes slow the economy. Sin taxes are another popular choice for revenue.
While I have a near total distrust for politicians, I do not trust the voter’s abilities to understand the economics of these matters either.
Tom Scharf (Comment #208079
So what keeps brave Joe Manchin from telling us what it was that staff got wrong.
SteveF (Comment #208078)
The Democrats are well aware of the economic and political consequences of passing this bill in that they are not interested in what it will do to the economy or the midterm elections. Rather it is all about getting these additions to bigger government on the books and permanent before they lose elections and the economy.
It is like the drive for government mitigation of climate change; it is not about future climate change but future government control and power.
They have the advantage of most of the media being behind their efforts. The only group holding all this back is the voting public, but at the moment probably not by way of seeing the dangers of big government controlling their lives and making it worse. They are susceptible to taxing the rich and corporations and being bought with government handouts. Progressives realize this better than other politicians. They are against means testing because they want everyone dependent on the government. It is or was a big part of BBB.
Science journalism, “no evidence”
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-phrase-no-evidence-is-a-red-flag
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“You can see the problem. Science communicators are using the same term – “no evidence†– to mean:
This thing is super plausible, and honestly very likely true, but we haven’t checked yet, so we can’t be sure.
We have hard-and-fast evidence that this is false, stop repeating this easily debunked lie.
This is utterly corrosive to anybody trusting science journalism.”
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This has definitely been a problem for a while now. The usage of the term no evidence almost always points in the direction of a preferred and obvious narrative.
Kenneth,
“But those gimmicks are evidently OK with 49 Democrat senators and all the House Democrats.”
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Sure, most democrats in congress are by nature only slightly to the right of Karl Marx, and they would very much like to force the entire world, starting with the USA, to become a socialist hell-hole, with few opportunities and even fewer personal liberties….. save for politicians and their families, who’s lives will be as advantaged as the nobility of 16th century Europe. Many democrats would protest that characterization, but only because either they are fools who are completely not self-aware, or because they are utterly dishonest and know it is politically impossible to state that you want the country to become a socialist hell-hole. The policies they consistently embrace show their true beliefs.
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Yes, 100% dependence upon, and 100% subservience to, the Federal government is always one of the key progressive objectives. Falls under the idiotic rubric of “social equity”. Effective destruction of the Constitution, either explicitly, or more likely by continued judicial subversion, falls under the same idiotic rubric of “social equity”.
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All of which shows why it is so important that progressives never have the power to enact destructive laws.
LOL….In the best defense is a good offense department…
Probably a bit harsh, but considering what has been shoved down the throat of those declining the vaccine the last 2 years, I do sympathize with the feelings.
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“..In The Age Of Omicron, The Jabbed Are Now Catching & Spreading Covid At A Higher Rate Than The Unvaxxed – Time To Lock Down The Vaxxed Now That They Are The Super-Spreaders?..â€
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https://allnewspipeline.com/Time_To_Lock_Down_The.php
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..â€Most reported U.S. Omicron cases have hit the fully vaccinated – CDC..â€
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https://news.yahoo.com/most-reported-u-omicron-cases-182642515.html
Omicron share of US cases:
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Dec 4 – 0.4%
Dec 11 – 2.9%
Dec 20 – 73.0%
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Yikes, that was fast.
Tom Scharf,
Seems impossible (AKA wrong). December 4 total cases: 115,000
December 11 total cases: 119,000
December 20: about 135,000 cases
So if 73% of cases today are Omicron, then that means delta had to have fallen from 115,000 cases December 4 to ~22,000 cases today. Not credible.
Source?
SteveF (Comment #208087): “So if 73% of cases today are Omicron, then that means delta had to have fallen from 115,000 cases December 4 to ~22,000 cases today. Not credible.”
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I was thinking the same. If true, it can only mean that the strains do compete in the sense that the spread in omicron is causing delta to decrease. But even if that is happening, the numbers do not seem credible.
Still no real increase in deaths in South Africa. Data from Financial Times, 7 day averages, listed by end date:
Date Cases Deaths
11/14 00171 22
11/21 00825 14
11/28 01975 32
12/05 10042 24
12/12 19400 24
12/19 20082 30
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Cases seem to have peaked at 23K/day a few days ago, so maybe it will go away as fast as it came.
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South Africa has an overall CFR of 3% and deaths have lagged cases by 1-2 weeks.
Those are CDC numbers. It seems pretty large, but it’s proportional of course. I’d agree that 70% decline in delta over a few weeks seems rather odd. Perhaps it’s selective testing of where omicron is dominant.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/omicron-variant-accounts-for-73-of-u-s-covid-19-cases-cdc-says-11640040586
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This article says the cases were at 13% on Dec 11th.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/omicron-tracking-in-u-s-is-hindered-by-data-gaps-11640023264
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The media is all over this of course. They are in full on alarmist mode as predicted. South Africa still looks like it may have peaked so it’s not like it just runs out exponentially to herd immunity in a couple months doubling every 2 days. It’s all still a bit mysterious. It’s almost like there is a subset of the population that is very susceptible to this variant, but that is just speculation on my part. The initial step in the omicron wave seems very steep.
Tom Scharf,
Using the phrase ‘there is no evidence’ in an argument is the logical fallacy known as the argument from ignorance. It’s not probative because the same argument can be applied to the converse of the proposition. If there is no evidence than one cannot show that a given position is correct and the opposite is incorrect.
One of the classics of the genre is: There is no evidence that God exists. There is also no evidence that God doesn’t exist either.
Tom Scharf,
“Those are CDC numbers.”
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Even more reason to suspect those numbers are wrong. It does sound like selective testing combined with frantic arm-waving to incite the worst tendencies in the MSPM (Main Stream Panic Media), something the CDC has done willfully and pretty much continuously since March 2020. They need to read about the boy who cried “wolf”.
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The facts that 1) there is zero increase in deaths in S Africa, and 2) the rather dramatic rise in cases is followed by an unexpected drop suggest omicron will be much ado about nothing. I agree that it seems like only a subset of the population is susceptible.
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Florida’s cases have risen sharply for about 14 days. We’ll see what happens to hospitalizations and deaths.
Tom Scharf (Comment #208086)
Dec 4 – 0.4% Dec 11 – 2.9 Dec 20 – 73.0%
Yikes, that was fast.
–
Not for the first time do theory and facts seem to go charging off in different directions.
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Do they test every positive case of covid for variation?
Where do they do these tests?
How did they get them out across 50 states so quickly and accurately when they could not get their planes out of Afghanistan?
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Possible explanations include
testing only a couple of all positive results and concluding all in that area are delta or omicron.
In other words the data is very poor quality and selective.
This saves money and is how polling works and unemployment rates etc.
Unlikely to be admitted as makes authorities look bad.
The mutation is built into the virus, that is that the changes are occurring in the delta virus as it transforms into omicron all over the world at roughly the same time.
This can happen with human skin cancer cells undergoing a “field of change” effect.
Not described in viruses before and not supposed to happen but watch this space!
I like it.
Selective release of the new strain deliberately. Total conspiracy theory rubbish but in the absence of a really good explanation???
Otherwise it must travel over phone lines because in Australia it is occurring in states thousands of K’s apart at roughly the same time and seems to automatically make delta disappear like magic.
Perhaps I should download Norton onto my computer.
angech,
Yes, it is almost certainly due to garbage data. No, the CDC has never and will never admit to any mistake, even when later information shows they were 100% wrong (same with the FDA and every other bureaucracy; errors are never admitted).
I went back and did some analysis of the holiday Covid-19 cases and mobility areas. I wrote up the results and linked it here:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/bk8as5xd9pi4asv/Holiday_Covid19_Cases_Mobility_to_12_14_2021.pdf?dl=0
My conclusions were that the change in several areas of holiday activities do not account for any significant holiday effect on reported cases and further that a plot of cases with the holidays marked does not show a holiday effect. Media reporting tends to present a picture of holiday activities being only up whereas a look at all activities shows a net decrease in activities. Some major holidays correspond to the cyclical peaks that have occurred periodically in case numbers over the entire pandemic period and which has evidently confused the media concerning cause. The peaks which build and recede over several weeks before and after these holidays account for an overwhelming number of cases compared to the up and down blips during the holidays.
Reported cases were related to reported deaths in an attempt to give the case counts more credibility over the period of interest, since death counts are expected to be more accurate. It was somewhat surprising to find the correlation of deaths to cases from July 2020 into early December 2021 to be 0.96 when deaths are offset from cases by 3 weeks. Possible explanations for the high correlation over that lengthy period were explored without a satisfactory selection. The ratio of reported deaths to reported cases plateaued over that period whereas the actual total deaths to total cases ratio would have been expected to decrease. If the portion of cases that went unreported during that time increased, that could account for not seeing a decreasing reported deaths to reported cases ratio, but for that ratio to remain much the same over that time seems coincidental.
SteveF (Comment #208095): “it is almost certainly due to garbage data”.
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Sadly, that might well be true. It is not that hard to do it right, just have every testing lab randomly select one sample in 20 for further testing. But there is no reason to expect that the CDC is doing it right.
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Defund the CDC.
MikeM
“Every lab” means every pharmacy, doctor’s office and local quick testing facility. I don’t think they even have the equipment. And patients want their tests back fast– I know I do. I’m not going to wait while the doctor’s office sends my sample in to a lab with appropriate equipment to test that it’s Omicron!
Biden’s Covid rapid test plan is too little and too late. I was advised to get tested last Friday. There was only one rapid test available in my whole county [Negative!] and only one kit available for purchase anywhere nearby. With the shortage of rapid tests I propose the price of a rapid test will be proof of complete vaccination for at least the next four weeks.
The government is telling us not to panic again! Aaaaaggghhhh!!!!
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“His administration is grappling with how to publicly underscore the urgency surrounding the highly transmissible variant, while seeking to convey that the U.S. is better prepared to battle the pandemic than it was a year ago.
Mr. Biden is expected to stress that Americans should take the Omicron variant seriously but shouldn’t panic, according to administration officials. The president will tell vaccinated Americans who are following public health guidelines that they should feel comfortable spending the holidays with their families.”
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There’s about a 100% chance we will set new case count records over the next month. At least the phrasing of “better prepared to battle the pandemic” has been updated to better reflect the reality of endemic covid. I will kick my dead dog once again and note the media is not politicizing the outbreak, we are yet again victims of a plague where we nor our politicians have any agency.
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Giving out free covid at home tests is a good move. This happened after they said the opposite a week or so ago. Unclear how that will happen or if the time frame will be useful for this outbreak. Too bad the covid anti-viral are stuck in regulatory review.
I picked up two covid test packs (2x tests in each) last week at the grocery store. Allegedly you can get private inusrance to pay for them later, but that is TBD. They do expire in a few months. If you see them locally I would buy them. I expect them to be in low supply quickly as Russell has already noted. My pharmacy just puts 3 or 4 on the counter at a time, I suppose to prevent hoarding.
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They are easy to use and give a result in 10 minutes like a pregnancy test. Do note that they aren’t as sensitive. I tested myself today, it does give you peace of mind if you have the usual cold weather symptoms and don’t want to sit around wondering about it for days.
Tom Scharf,
Well, unless the politician is Donald Trump, in which case every single death from COVID-19 in the US (and maybe the rest of the world too) was his fault and every new death since January 20 is still his fault. Otherwise, if Biden has no agency, then neither did the Donald.
Oh, really? There’s an assertion without a trace of evidence. Given hospital staffing has deteriorated even further, we’re, if anything, less prepared than we were a year ago. A year ago, the monoclonal antibody treatments worked. IIRC, they don’t work as well for Ο. What may save the day is that Ο may be less virulent than Δ.
Tom Scharf,
“His administration is grappling with how to publicly underscore the urgency surrounding the highly transmissible variant, while seeking to convey that the U.S. is better prepared to battle the pandemic than it was a year ago.”
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The populace is indeed better prepared….. 70% vaccinated and ~95% among those at real risk of serious illness or death either vaccinated or already recovered. But I doubt that will be the main message from Biden. He needs the panic level turned up to 110% to justify his unlawful vaccine mandates; so he will continue to amplify the panic, and will say the omicron will kill the un-vaccinated. The rest of the time he will heap shame, condemnation, and explicit threats on any who are not vaccinated, even a healthy 8 year old who is at greater risk from a car accident than than from covid.
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Biden was always stupid, corrupt and shameless. Now he is stupid, corrupt, shameless, and demented, and is being guided in his cognitive decline by evil people who care only about their lefty political goals: fundamentally change the way Americans live their lives. Which is to say, live without personal liberty, surrendering most of what you earn to the Federal government, and doing exactly what crazy lefties say.
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Fortunately, Joe Alzheimer Biden will become irrelevant after January 2, 2023: his agenda will become a non-starter, and his appointees will be tormented by Congress for their destructive, unlawful policies. I continue to think his exit will somehow be engineered by Democrats, leaving us with President Kamala, some time in 2023.
I read with interest Fauci’s comments about the mask requirements on airplanes. His take was: we will never again allow anyone on a commercial flight without a mask. (And that was NEVER, no matter what happens with covid.) The fact that people have been flying commercially for 80+ years without masks makes no difference to the evil dwarf from covid hell. The guy needs to be fired ASAP; he is not just wrong, he is willfully destructive, and everything he has said in the last two years has been dishonest and factually wrong.
SteveF (Comment #208105)
Come on SteveF, we knew this was coming, i.e. making as many mandates as possible permanent. Fauci remains popular with the voting public to the point of being their science god – so who better to make the state commands to the public or at least test the waters. I would like to see a poll on this one, but I am guessing, based on the willingness of the public to accept and even cheer on mandates, that more would see it favorably.
I see also that the latest court decision on vaccination mandates was favorable to the Biden administration. It is up to the Supreme court now. With 3 of the “conservative” judges on the fence I would not hold my breath that the court will overturn the lower court decision. This does get to the heart of administrative agency interpretation of laws, but since it is an “emergency” all bets are off.
I think we can now officially say that the Constitution rules (sort of) in normal times but in emergencies that is definitely not the case – and Lord knows we are having and can look forward to lots of emergencies.
lucia (Comment #208098): “Every lab means every pharmacy, doctor’s office and local quick testing facility.”
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Huh? We aren’t doing PCR testing anymore? Because none of those places are doing PCR testing.
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“And patients want their tests back fast.”
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There is no conflict that I am aware of.
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The CDC is sequencing 80K samples a week.
Kenneth,
There is no telling with certainty, but I am guessing 5 conservatives will strike the Biden vaccine mandate, because it is legally and constitutionally wrong on so many levels. Mealy-mouth Roberts will (of course) side with the three leftists, as he usually does on every critically important case, because, well, he is a complete fool and gelatin spined to boot.
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If the SC does not strike the Biden OSHA mandate, that will be very bad for Dems in 2022.
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Really, this is all crazy: we have a regulation never foreseen by the OSHA law being forced upon the country completely outside the intent of Congress in passing said OSHA law. If the SC can’t stop something so obviously beyond the intent of Congress, then there is nothing they are willing to stop.
OK, I just learned that there are now lots of places where I can get tested. But surely they are not doing PCR tests on site; they are collecting samples and sending them to a lab. Or am I mistaken?
MikeM
They are doing tests. Lots of tests. You proposed having 1/20 of the tests be checked and that that would be easy.
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I guess maybe you meant, 1/20 of the subset of tests that got sent out? Whatever, there are lots of tests done locally.
That 73% has 60% error bands on it. If you turn the “NowCast” off Delta jumps to 98% “Nowcast is a model that estimates more recent proportions of circulating variants and enables timely public health action. ” IOW model with boundary issues.
Andrew P,
The fact that this rubbish would even be disclosed to the public without a detailed explanation (AKA … this is really just rubbish) means those involved are utterly dishonest.
lucia (Comment #208111): “They are doing tests. Lots of tests.”
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What sort of tests? I may be way out of data on this. The sites here all seem to say results in 2-3 days, which I take as meaning that they are sending them out for PCR testing. But I don’t really know.
I believe some places give you a quick test on site and then send out for the more sensitive genetic tests which take a day or two. This would be optimal as the first test will flag if you are contagious. This probably changes state to state and I think it’s just chaos to try to figure it out.
Antigen I think? Last time I had a test, I got results in an hour. The analysis was done at the walk-in clinic.
A covid vaccine mandate is a close call for me, 800K people dead with asymptomatic transmission will be enough justification for plenty of people. The way this specific vaccine mandate has been implemented through a OSHA loophole is not a close call to me and it should be struck down because of the many reasons the New Orleans court documented. This is too “clever” lawyering on a very important issue where it doesn’t belong.
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There is also no reasonable basis for a threshold of when a future vaccine should be implemented or when the current mandate could be waived in the future. It’s just sticking a finger in the air. An administrative mandate should be a time limited emergency order forcing a legislative OK within 3-6 months.
“better prepared to battle the pandemic”
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Messaging. It used to be just get your effing vaccine, wear your damn masks, social distance, and the pandemic will disappear. That old message didn’t age well with delta and omicron. Delta is from India and omicron is from South Africa. The disobedient US population that our betters are so disappointed in would never had stopped this pandemic. Period.
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There is no doubt that some bad outcomes could have been avoided with vaccines and some people take unnecessary risks, but that is the price of liberty. I guess it has to be “Give me liberty AND give me death” sometimes, ha ha.
Tom Scharf (Comment #208115): “I believe some places give you a quick test on site and then send out for the more sensitive genetic tests which take a day or two. This would be optimal as the first test will flag if you are contagious. This probably changes state to state and I think it’s just chaos to try to figure it out.”
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Doing both a quick antigen test and sending out for a PCR test would make sense, at least if the PCR result is required to get treatment, which I *think* is the case here in NM. But it is not easy to find out just what is what. The authorities are great at spreading fear, but seem totally incompetent at spreading useful information.
It appears there are shit-wads of Omicron in wastewater.
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I’m guessing either it’s pre-symptomatic people and we are going to get a huge surge fast OR this has become mostly very, very mild. Let’s hope for the later.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/to-track-covid-19-surges-scientists-are-studying-sewage-11640082603
MikeM,
I got a quick test because I thought I’d been exposed. I waited just long enough to reduce the chance of false negative. That’s the only test I got. I had no symptoms, and the test was negative. There was no PCR test done. I suspect what I did is very common.
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There is no requirement to get a PCR test just because you got an antigen test.
lucia,
Thanks for the info. I did a bit of checking and it seems that an antigen test is sufficient for a diagnoses to get treatment. I could have sworn that I saw otherwise on the NM DoH web site.
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Now I am wondering what percent of reported cases are based on antigen tests vs PCR.
Tom Scharf (Comment #208115)
Where I was tested that appeared to be the default testing procedure, i.e. rapid and PCR tests. I do not recall being given a choice to just have the rapid test. Since it was all no cost to those being tested I do not see why they would only want to receive the rapid test results.
The divergence between covid cases and covid deaths continues in the USA; the minimum number of cases was Oct 29, and by two weeks ago had risen by ~70%, but the corresponding rise in deaths (assuming a 2 week delay between cases and deaths) has been only ~26%. It is also important to note that for at least much of that rise in cases, it was NOT omicron dominating, but delta.
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Florida should be a clean measure of the virulence of omicron, because the delta surge was over in Florida before omega arrived, so the now rapid rise in cases is very likely due to omega, not delta. If omega really is less virulent than delta, then the divergence between cases and deaths should be obvious in Florida. Two more weeks and we should know.
Kenneth,
When I got tested, I specifically asked for the rapid test. I wanted to know if I should isolate. The slow test isn’t useful for that.
lucia (Comment #208125): “When I got tested, I specifically asked for the rapid test. I wanted to know if I should isolate. The slow test isn’t useful for that.”
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That makes sense, but what if you did not wait long enough and were not yet contagious? Then getting the more sensitive test results back in 2-3 days could be very useful.
For international travelers, the rapid test is cheaper and more convenient: you can pay half as much at the airport and get documented results in 15 – 20 minutes, so you need arrive at the airport only a little earlier than usual.
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Of course, red tape demanded by bureaucrats can eliminate much of that advantage….. I had to fill out an on-line “personal information form” in Sao Paulo before being allowed to get a rapid covid test at the airport. No broadband internet access on your phone? No test. Completing that form took well over an hour, and it was rife with repeat questions; eg I had to provide the same two contact phone numbers (primary and backup) five different times on a single form; my home address 3 times, address where I would quarantine (in Brazil) for 14 days should my test be positive three times, etc, etc. The same rapid test at Miami airport took 3 minutes to fill out a simple information form, and I had the results 20 minutes later.
SteveF (Comment #208124): “The divergence between covid cases and covid deaths continues in the USA; the minimum number of cases was Oct 29, and by two weeks ago had risen by ~70%, but the corresponding rise in deaths (assuming a 2 week delay between cases and deaths) has been only ~26%.”
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I think if you look at the period from the peak in deaths (late Sept.) to Thanksgiving, the apparent CFR was rising from about 1.2% to 1.5%. I suspect there is a long tail on deaths, so that the deaths in mid-November were inflated by cases from much earlier. If so, the would be a subsequent apparent drop in CFR.
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The rough constancy in CFR, except for the initial surge is puzzling. Widespread vaccination should have reduced it.
Mike M,
The data is hard to find, but the last time I looked (couple of months back) deaths in Florida were still dominated by un-vaccinated individuals. I don’t know if that has changed. Part of the apparent discrepancy may be that many (most?) breakthrough infections are so mild that many people are not being tested. That would tend to make the apparent CFR higher.
Mike M,
Hospitalization rates are easier to find than death rates. This article shows hospitalization rates in the UK versus vaccination status: https://ca.news.yahoo.com/how-many-unvaccinated-people-are-being-admitted-to-hospital-in-england-131305713.html
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The maximum advantage for vaccination looks to be in the 70-79 cohort. For young people the advantage is much lower.
And it continues
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“… VIENNA (LifeSiteNews) — 200 Austrian doctors have signed an open letter criticizing the COVID-19 vaccines, arguing they are inefficient against the virus and can cause serious adverse effects.
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“The number of reported side effects of COVID-19 vaccines can only be described as frightening,†wrote Dr. Andreas Sönnichsen, former head of the Department of General and Family Medicine at the Center for Public Health at MedUni Vienna and author of the letter.
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The letter came less than a month after Austria announced that vaccination against COVID-19 will be mandatory for all citizens, under penalty of fines or prison sentences, beginning next year…â€
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https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/we-will-not-be-intimidated-200-austrian-doctors-warn-against-jab-side-effects-risking-sanctions/
Ed Forbes,
Like a cracked vinyl record, every link you provide points to yet another unhinged anti-vax site. Maybe you should read a little more widely; published, peer reviewed papers on vaccine efficacy and risks would be a good start.
The evidence that the vaccines save lives is overwhelming. The evidence for serious side effects (beyond young men, puberty to mid 20’s) is weak. Even if you accept that weak evidence, the vaccines are STILL much safer for nearly everyone than catching covid. Seems to me you are being very far from rational in your analysis of the risks and benefits of the vaccines.
“The University of Edinburgh study, drawing on the health records of 5.4 million people in Scotland, found the risk of hospitalization with Covid-19 was two-thirds lower with Omicron than with Delta. The new variant became dominant in Scotland last week.
A separate study published online by researchers at South Africa’s National Institute for Communicable Diseases similarly found people infected with Omicron were 70% to 80% less likely to need hospital treatment than people infected with earlier variants, including Delta.”
“An analysis of recent Covid-19 cases in England by Imperial College London, also published Wednesday, suggested the risk of hospitalization with Omicron is only around 10% to 11% lower than Delta for someone who hasn’t been vaccinated and never previously infected, highlighting the protection that persists against the new variant from vaccination or exposure to the virus.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-booster-offers-substantial-protection-against-symptomatic-infection-with-omicron-study-finds-11640191103
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The first two studies do not appear to separate data on vaccination status. For the record I am not fond of Imperial College studies based on their rather long string of alarmist stuff they put out that borders on propaganda. Their credibility is low especially on predictions, but that doesn’t mean this study is wrong. The media should be putting them on probation IMO.
The FDA cleared use of Pfizer’s Paxlovid pill. It’s up to production now, unclear how that will ramp up. Suffice it to say that the combination of easy and plentiful at home testing and Paxlovid will make treating covid a lot more effective. Probably 6 months away for that.
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“Some researchers have raised safety concerns, because Paxlovid is taken with another drug. The second drug, called ritonavir, helps Paxlovid fight the virus longer, but can cause side effects when taken with certain widely used heart and cholesterol medicines.”
Tom Scharf,
I also read about the problems/interactions with several other common medications; statins for lowering cholesterol seems like the biggest potential problem. The only good news is that the dose of ritonavir is said to be “very low”, so perhaps the drug interactions won’t be too severe. These interactions may be address when Pfizer formally publishes the phase 3 results….. something that has not happened so far.
Considering the Imperial College history of being mostly wrong most of the time, as well as being a bunch of political hacks (strong correlation there), I very much doubt they are accurate in their obviously politically motivated pronouncement: “See, if only you un-vaccinated people would get the vaccine, omicron won’t kill you…. otherwise it will kill you for sure.” South Africa has few people vaccinated, yet they have seen no significant increase in deaths when compared to new cases. If omicron were dangerous only to the unvaccinated, then the results in South Africa would be very different.
SteveF (Comment #208130): “Hospitalization rates are easier to find than death rates.”
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This site gives periodic updates on breakthrough cases in Minnesota:
https://healthy-skeptic.com/
It seems that the vaxed are 30-40% of hospitalizations and deaths, similar to the UK report.
Here is their latest update:
https://healthy-skeptic.com/2021/12/21/breakthrough-event-table-december-20/
It seems they have to do a fair bit of messaging to extract the numbers from the data the state provides.
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If 1/3 of hospitalizations are “with” rather than “because of” covid, then a 2/3 drop in overall hospitalizations would be a 100% drop in hospitalizations because of covid. Just pointing out that interpreting the numbers might be dicey.
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If the Imperial college study is the one I saw a few days ago, it is a *modelling* study. By guess who. Worthless, IMO.
MikeM,
I intentionally waited long enough. That info is available.
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Even with a PCR test, you need to wait until you are detectable. The time lag due to mailing the test and waiting for the test to be processed is just extra time.
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I greatly prefer to get the answer from the test rather than waiting for it to take time before it is processed
Not for my purpose. My goal is to have information to gauge how important it’s likely to e for me to isolate.
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Just isolating 2-3 dyas more was not something I wanted.
lucia (Comment #208138): “I intentionally waited long enough. That info is available.”
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But you can’t really know how long, since it is variable. It might be 3 days for one person and a week for someone else, sometimes even longer.
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lucia: “Even with a PCR test, you need to wait until you are detectable.”
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But you are detectable with PCR much sooner than with an antigen test.
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lucia: “I greatly prefer to get the answer from the test rather than waiting for it to take time before it is processed”.
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For sure, if it is either one or the other. But I think it advantageous to get both, especially if they can use one sample for both.
MikeM
Well perhaps. But that uncertainty isn’t fixed by taking a PCR test, shipping it off and waiting for it to arrive.
Perhaps. But you have to wait for them to be shipped then processed. So you don’t find out sooner. The ETA was 5 days– and I’d had one before and it took 7.
I judged the antigen test more reasonable under my specific circumstances. It could detect if I’d become infectious– which is what I cared about.
It may sometimes be advantages to get both. Had I been requesting one because I had symptoms I might see it your way. But I wanted one because I’d been in the same room as someone but had no symptoms. There is no particular reason for belt-and-suspenders in this circumstance.
I isolated some number of days, then had an antigen test. Having no symptoms and a negative antigen test struck me as saying I had a sufficiently low probability of being infected to not worry about spreading.
lucia,
If I had a positive antigen test, I would want a PCR test for confirmation, but would isolate while waiting for the PCR results. A negative antigen test would mean that even if a PCR test at the same time was positive, you’re likely not particularly contagious for the next 24 hours or so.
The FDA has narrowly approved Merck’s antiviral drug. This is madness.
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The drug works by causing RNA polymerase to produce transcription errors. Note that it does not directly interfere with the virus, it messes with the cell’s own essential chemistry. The idea is that cells have better proofreading than viruses so it will mess up the virus while hopefully not doing too much damage in cells. Sounds pretty scary to me.
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But here is the real problem. The drug will cause an infected person to produce and shed huge numbers of highly mutated virus particles. Overwhelmingly, those will be non-viable. But the probability of producing a viable, dangerous virus would seem to be non-zero.
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With enough virus replications, enough patients, and enough different viruses treated; “non-zero” can be functionally indistinguishable from “almost certain”. And the drug is not even all that effective. Madness.
DeWitt,
But I had a negative antigen test. And zero symptoms. So: strong presumption to not being infected.
I took it after waiting a recommended amount of time. I isolated from the time I learned the woman I’d been exposed to was positive until 6 days had lapsed. I hadn’t danced with her– I’d just been in the same room (dancing with her husband, Vlad, who had a negative test and went into isolation with her. ) The room was a large studio, and there were exactly 2 couples in there. I didn’t think there was much of a chance I was infected, but I thought there was enough to get some sort of test.
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I think getting a second test would be overkill under the circumstances. (I then went out and had my lesson with my other, teacher– who had been exposed to the same woman at a competition. He hadn’t talked to her — because both were busy. But he’d been in the same large dance hall. He teaches dance so he did get tested several times. He did (a) earliest possible pcr and antigen and (b) two days later pcr and antigen. He was also negative– which I knew. The person I wanted to minimize infecting was him! He’s vaccinated, but potentially a super spreader because he teaches dance. So he’s in close contact with numerous people during the day. He’s told all his students and we all used our judgement. Other than my lesson with Devin and being home with Jim, I isolated! )
I think lots of people do as I do under the circumstances. They make judgements based on probability knowing level of contact and so on. For what it’s worth, the form at my medical providers office advised I didn’t need a test at all. (This conflicted with CDC advise, so I got a test anyway.)
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So yes: If I’d gotten a positive, I would get a PCR test. If I had symptoms, I’d get a PCR test. If I’d had closer contact with Brianna (as I did with Vlad) I’d get a PCR test. And so on.
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(FWIW: Vlad and Brianna are anti-vax. Turns out Vlad has antibodies. So it seems he had symptomless Covid sometime in the past. Brianna’s case turned out very,very mild. )
While looking up the effect of Zn on viral replication, I came up with this article published in 2010:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2973827/
The ionophore used was pyrithione. Zinc pyrithione is a common ingredient in anti-dandruff shampoos. HCQ also acts as an ionophore. I wouldn’t recommend drinking shampoo. But again, any study of HCQ that didn’t include zinc was designed to fail.
How does Paxlovid operate? Is it fair to call it Pfizermectin?
So far as I know, Paxlovid has nothing in common with Ivermectin. It is a protease inhibitor that impedes the ability of viral proteins to assemble into new virus particles. I think that similar drugs are already in use, at least for HIV.
Mike M,
I believe the enzyme which is being interfered with is called np12, and it is an enzyme created by the virus, not by the host cell.
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There were concerns raised that the Merck drug could cause genetic damage, but according to what I have read, there is no known influence on transcription errors in the host cell. I think the bigger problem with the Merck drug is that the most recent testing suggests only a 30% reduction in severe illness, not the 50%+ reduction that preliminary tests suggested. 30% reduced risk is better than nothing, but the Pfizer drug reaches ~90% without the issue of genetic transcription.
Mike M,
“I think that similar drugs are already in use, at least for HIV.”
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Indeed they are. The second drug in the cocktail that forms the Pfizer treatment is exactly the same as is used in combination with other protease inhibitors for HIV.
Covid tests were hidden behind the pharmacy counter today, you had to ask, and then they give you one like it was a bar of gold, ha ha. Florida does not seem too paranoid at the moment, more masks than usual but less than 50% at the store. Florida is on the steep part of an omicron curve it looks like, cases up 6X over the past two weeks and still climbing. A doubling time of about 4-5 days at the moment.
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The age of covid acceptance is upon us I think.
Tom Scharf,
“The age of covid acceptance is upon us I think.”
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Sure, at least in red states,as it has been for a while. California? No. New York? no. Washington DC? Double-no! In DC it is still April 2020, only *much* more dangerous (omicron!). The mindless Washington bureaucrats (led by the evil midget Fauci) will never willingly let go of their newfound power and fame. Only after Biden is gone (by whatever means) will the crazy pandemic rules end. I look forward to air travel without the masks.
SteveF (Comment #208148): “I believe the enzyme which is being interfered with is called np12, and it is an enzyme created by the virus, not by the host cell.”
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But the way it interferes is by making a nucleoside analog that gets incorporated instead of the correct nucleoside. I would think that would impact any RNA transcription taking place.
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SteveF: “There were concerns raised that the Merck drug could cause genetic damage, but according to what I have read, there is no known influence on transcription errors in the host cell.”
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From what I have seen it is highly mutagenic in rat fetuses. The big issue in adults would be delayed effects, such as cancer or, much worse, germ cell mutations.
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But what really scares me is that speeding up virus mutations rates seems highly risky.
Mike M,
There may be some influence on RNA transcription in the normal cell process (DNA–> RNA) but errors there would tend to be of relatively lower consequence, and normal feed-back would tend to compensate (cell short of enzyme X? make more X). The drug has been through multiple trials, including a large phase 3. There are legitimate safety questions about interference in normal transcription, of course, but I think the bigger issue is the relatively weak efficacy relative to those questions. The possibility of generating more lethal versions of the virus was clearly considered by the advisory committee; I would like to see the summary paper from the phase 3 trial.
SteveF (Comment #208154): “There may be some influence on RNA transcription in the normal cell process (DNA–> RNA) but errors there would tend to be of relatively lower consequence, and normal feed-back would tend to compensate (cell short of enzyme X? make more X).”
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The issue is not messing with cell proteins; it is messing with DNA. The drug appears to be mutagenic:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2021/11/02/harming-those-who-receive-it-the-dangers-of-molnupiravir-part-2/
It seems to me that the drug should only be used in old folks who aren’t going to have kids and have relatively little time for cancer to develop.
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SteveF (Comment #208154): “The drug has been through multiple trials, including a large phase 3.”
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Vioxx went through trials and got approved and it ended up killing a lot of people; possibly over 50K. And there is no way the trials would pick up ether carcinogenicity or teratogenicity, although the drug presumably passed an Ames test.
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SteveF: “There are legitimate safety questions about interference in normal transcription, of course, but I think the bigger issue is the relatively weak efficacy relative to those questions.”
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That is indeed a major issue. It is not like it is a wonder drug or a rescue drug that can be used by people for whom hope is fading.
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SteveF: “The possibility of generating more lethal versions of the virus was clearly considered by the advisory committee”.
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Nearly half the committee opposed approval. And the rest may well have been influenced by political pressure and/or ties to the pharmaceutical industry.
The danger of unleashing an even worse variant might be worse than I thought:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2021/11/01/supercharging-new-viral-variants-the-dangers-of-molnupiravir-part-1/?sh=29bf11386b15
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Madness.
Study looks decent. As with all drugs, concentration determines the difference between a beneficial and lethal dose. However, cell cultures are very much not a canary in a coal mine. They have been cured of cancer thousands of times, and used to prove that everything causes cancer.
MikeM
Given the relative danger of Covid to old folks vs. young folks that will be the natural use regardless of likelyhood of cancer later on.
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Beyond that: if someone’s choice is die of Covid now or get cancer later, most will pick cancer later.
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This is at least intded as a lifesaving treatment to be used during a critical period. Vioxx was mostly for pain. I don’t know about you, but I have different standards under the circumstances. I respect pain and don’t want it. But it’s not death.
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As far as I can see, the problem with the Merck drug is lack of efficacy. That’s a problem period.
Well…. if you are going to speculate about political pressure, perhaps the ones who voted the way you want were influenced by political pressure. Or even ties to other pharma companies.
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MikeM,
I suspect the limited efficacy and very high price will limit use. As Lucia says, it is a drug for old people not 20-somethings ready to have kids. If it really saves 30% from death, that is not terrible, but ~90% efficacy (Pfizer antiviral) is a much better choice.
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Why the Biden administration has not latched onto and expedited production of what seems close to a miracle drug from Pfizer is to me astounding. That it has not speaks volumes to the true priorities of the Biden administration. Save a 100,000 lives? Nah, who really gives a crap about that? Much better to bitch about Republicans not getting vaccinated (even though that is blatantly false) and how Manchin is interfering with ‘progress’ toward idilic socialism and CO2 reductions.
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And on that sorry note about Biden’s leadership, I wish happy holidays to all.
Biden says he would be OK with an “exception” to the filibuster for the … ahem … voting rights legislation. We just can’t have red states setting their own standards for voting, it’s a threat to democracy.
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And I thought my cynicism could not go any higher. This is just bad politics all the way around. Even if they passed this on a party line it would likely be thrown out by the SC as the federal government doesn’t really have this kind of authority.
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It is these type of moves that make me think Biden is really becoming a little incoherent. There is no upside to saying this, the far left doesn’t need any additional encouragement and it alienates the middle.
Tom Scharf,
“It is these type of moves that make me think Biden is really becoming a little incoherent. ”
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He is more than a little incoherent. He is a mindless mouthpiece for those controlling his puppet strings, which I suspect is at least in large measure his wife. The guy has Alzheimer’s. Just about every single policy he has endorsed as president contradicts earlier, long held policy preferences. Biden is just an idiot-blank-slate who will do whatever he is told by those around him. History will not be kind to those controlling him when his dementia becomes so obvious that he is removed from office.
Merry Christmas. Don’t nobody shoot your eye out this year.
+Happy XMAS all.
Tough year was character building.
Thank you, Lucia, and all the regulars who keep this site so vibrant.
Merry Christmas to all!
Happily the $10B Webb Telescope launched successfully this morning, the origami unfolding will occur over the next few weeks. It’s a bit crazy looking on paper.
https://youtu.be/RzGLKQ7_KZQ
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Entertaining coverage by the WSJ:
“Webb has 344 “single-point failure†items. A single-point failure is a piece of equipment or part of the system that, should it fail, could scuttle the entire mission.â€
… skip ahead two paragraphs …
“There are enough redundancies built in that everything will be OK,†said Michael Maseda, an assistant professor of astronomy at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. “If one thing doesn’t work it won’t completely cancel the mission.â€
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Proofreaders are off on Xmas day I guess, ha ha.
Merry Christmas! Hope you got the Red Rider BB gun with the compass in the stock and the thing that tells time.
Kevin Roche is part of a small group in Minnesota who are constantly after the state DOH to provide more complete and informative data. They seem to be making progress in getting data that can actually be analyzed directly, rather than guessing at delay time between, say, cases and deaths. Here is the latest on vaxed vs. unvaxed:
https://healthy-skeptic.com/2021/12/26/breakthrough-event-timing/
Roche gives three caveats to taking those numbers at face value. One is that the age structure is different for the two groups, making the vaccine seem less useful than it actually is. Another is that the fraction of undetected infections is likely higher for the vaxed. Finally, we don’t know what fraction of each group has had prior infection.
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I anticipate a much more thorough analysis in the near future.
I think it was clear from early on data I looked at that if you are vaccinated AND end up with a serious infection (lower lung?) then your odds aren’t much better than an unvaccinated person once hospitalized and in the ICU. The advantage was primarily in never getting to that stage.
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The data shown here doesn’t match up to every other count of hospitalized people in ICU’s across the globe, i.e. the chances of ended up in the ICU were around 10x worse for unvaccinated people. I very much doubt this data is accurate, or perhaps the data changed dramatically over the past couple months. Not likely. I would expect some drop in protection with omicron, but early reports are that it is still highly protective against serious infection. It’s still early though. The data continues to show cases to be milder in general.
From two days ago:
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“So far, we have actually seen the majority of patients coming in being able to discharge home for monitoring rather than be hospitalized,†he said. “This omicron variant does not appear to be as deadly as the delta variant. It doesn’t mean, however, that it can’t actually cause severe illness in some patients.â€
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Chief medical officer for Jackson Medical center, Miami.
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Let’s hope that continues. There are lots of positive tests in Florida, but so far no big rise in hospitalizations or deaths. We should be able to tell for sure within 8 or 10 days.
SteveF,
All my fingers are crossed!!!
Tom Scharf (Comment #208177): “The data shown here doesn’t match up to every other count of hospitalized people in ICU’s across the globe, i.e. the chances of ended up in the ICU were around 10x worse for unvaccinated people.”
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If you normalize to population, chance of ending up very sick or dead are much smaller if vaccinated. If you normalize to cases, the rates do not seem to be much different. Apparent CFR has not changed much as a result of vaccination.
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There are two limiting ways of interpreting that. (1) Vaccination reduces chance of infection, but if you get infected it does not make much difference. (2) People who are vaccinated and get infected are much less likely to get a positive test result. The truth likely falls somewhere in between, but, IMO, probably much closer to (2) than (1).
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We ought to have the data to know that. Defund the CDC.
MikeM
Under both your options, vaccination remains a very helpful thing for those who get it.
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If “all” vaccination means is that people who get “infected” have such light infections that they can’t even trigger a positive test result, that’s a huge success for vaccination.
Mike M,
People who are vaccinated but fail to get a positive test result (your case 2) could fail to test positive, in spite of symptomatic illness and being tested, or because they have such mild illness that they never bother to test. Which are you suggesting?
SteveF (Comment #208182): “People who are vaccinated but fail to get a positive test result (your case 2) could fail to test positive, in spite of symptomatic illness and being tested”
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I don’t see how. I can see where a vaccinated person might get an “infection” that is cleared before they ever get a viral load sufficient to cause a positive test. But such people should never have symptoms or transmit the virus. I am not even sure such cases should be called infections.
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SteveF: “or because they have such mild illness that they never bother to test. Which are you suggesting?”
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Perhaps not all that mild although probably not severe. Symptoms sufficient to cause an unvaccinated person to get tested might not lead a vaccinated person to get tested, on the grounds of “I’ve been vaccinated, so it can’t be covid”.
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Vaccinated people are clearly capable of spreading the virus. That means that they are capable of a positive test, even a rapid antigen test.
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I only point out that there is a disconnect between the probability of serious illness normalized to population vs. normalized to cases. The reason does not seem to be known.
lucia (Comment #208181): “Under both your options, vaccination remains a very helpful thing for those who get it.”
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Not so much if it reduced chance of infection per unit time but not integrated over time. Unlikely, but possible.
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lucia: “If “all†vaccination means is that people who get “infected†have such light infections that they can’t even trigger a positive test result, that’s a huge success for vaccination.”
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There is no evidence for that. We know that vaccinated people can transmit the virus.
Mike M.,
I think that depends on the antibody level. Pfizer did challenge testing with recently vaccinated monkeys and found no virus reproduction in the nose or lungs. But antibody levels decline over time so breakthrough infections that produce infectious levels of virus become more probable. People with weak or compromised immune systems may not produce a high level of antibodies in the first place.
No for some wishful thinking: Liberals should be more tolerant in 2022 (https://nypost.com/2021/12/26/liberals-should-resolve-to-be-more-tolerant-in-2022/).
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Upon reading I immediately remembered the fable of the frog and the scorpion. Though I admit that may be more than a little unfair to scorpions.
MikeM
Well… presumably, results on the ground are “integrated over time”– that would be integration over the time period observed so far.
Whether there is evidence is irrelevant on two counts:
You already posited people who are so lightly infected the level of virus in them is undectable. I don’t need “evidence” that your speculation is true to observe that if it is that’s a big win for vaccination. Sure: what you speculate may be false. But I”m just observing the consequence if it is true.
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Beyond that: it’s a big win whether or not they can infect others. Keeping the vaccinated from getting ill is a ginormous win and is so whether or not they can infect others who don’t get
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Beyond that: Some of the vaccinated have detectable viral loads. Of course they can transmit. Having evidence some infected can transmit the disease wouldn’t constitute evidence those whose viral loads are undetectable even with boosted PCR tests can also transmit. You have zero evidence for that and it’s implausible. If they can’t, that’s a second big win for the vaccines.
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You are the one who speculate these people exist. If they do, it’s a big win for vaccines– possible two big wins.
SteveF,
My favorite thing from your NYPost article is near the end where the term ‘progressive privilege’ is used.
Too funny.
Mike M,
I agree the vaccinated are more likely than the unvaccinated to skip a covid test, unless they are pretty sick. They could also have a case so mild that they don’t even consider themselves sick or potentially infective.
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My second son (36 YO) was sick from the day before Christmas until yesterday. He already had the Moderna vaccine (in May) and a very mild breakthrough infection (in August), and finally got a covid test yesterday PM….. negative. I am pretty sure he believed he didn’t have covid, but got the test anyway because he want to be sure he was not going to pass covid on to others. Even when there is a “surge” in covid cases, most tests are still negative.
I have been attempting to find a method whereby I can get a better look at the Covid-19 deaths/cases ratio and how it might be related to the amounts of testing performed. I found the link below that lists the PCR tests for all the US states plus the District of Columbia with results for both positive and negative findings for the entire Covid-19 pandemic duration in the US.
https://healthdata.gov/dataset/COVID-19-Diagnostic-Laboratory-Testing-PCR-Testing/w3ft-93it
In turns out that for the US, the weekly positive PCR tests correlates near perfectly with the weekly reported cases and in OLS regression gives a slope very near 1. If these data of positive tests and cases come from different sources that is very good cross confirmation. Evidently the rapid tests are not used to classify a reported case.
I did several correlation of cases versus testing variables, but a key finding was the relationship of the weekly deaths to cases ratio (with the deaths lagged 3 weeks) to number of weekly tests for the US. It is exponential if the early weeks are used where the ratio decreases rapidly into the 0.02 to 0.01 range with the number of cases and then slowly decreasing from there. If these early points are considered outliers and excluded, the relationship becomes more linear with a gradually downward sloping line.
There was also a high correlation of total tests to cases, i.e., when there is a surge in cases there is also a surge in testing. I am thinking that more of the population with asymptomatic cases might get tested during the surges – for various reasons – than in non-surge times and that is certainly in line with the anti-correlation of death/cases ratio with test numbers.
I was attempting to extrapolate the curves to testing numbers that would simulate testing the entire US population in one week. In the linear case I get a negative ratio close to zero and with a log case I get a ratio very close to zero. While a reasonable extrapolated value might be within the uncertainty ranges, I am thinking that result might be better estimated using nonlinear exponential models I have seen used for top of the atmosphere energy balance change over a period of years in the 4XCO2 climate experiments. That is what I am currently working on.
Vaccinated people are self selecting, there is some case to be made that those who get vaccinated are already less likely to get an infection because they are health conscious (in better shape), they are also adhering to social distancing and masking more often, and they socialize more often with vaccinated people.
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However it’s not like this thought is new and hasn’t been examined. Deaths and serious illness from covid has been normalized in a zillion different ways and the leading difference * by far * over the last six months is vaccination status and age group. Down the list are immunocompromised etc.
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Approx. two decades of increased age equalizes the risk between vaccinated and unvaccinated (a 70 year old vaccinated person has equal risk to a 50 year old unvaccinated person).
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I don’t find a blog post with speculation very convincing, especially with no linked data analysis. The first question I always ask myself is does this somehow bring into question the ICU vaccination status disparity? This is the simple test and you can’t just pretend it doesn’t exist by hand waving with a more complicated analysis and saying everything doesn’t line up when examined closely.
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But as I said before, I would expect the vaccination status ICU disparity to drop with omicron due to the larger number of breakthroughs. It is confounded by an apparent more mild variant though.
Testing data quality is only going to get worse now with at home testing. Nobody is going to report negative at home tests and I doubt many will report positive tests. Who wants to go to a test center where lots of people might have covid? There will be 100M’s of at home tests available soon. There are enough tests available now that it is probably already making datasets less accurate.
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Additionally I sense that people have really hit the wall with covid fatigue and just don’t care anymore. “Hyper transmissive” omicron is being met with a big yawn in FL as far as I can tell.
I have found the correlation between articles arguing something is a “threat to democracy” and there being interesting information within to be near zero. An explanation of how the item of interest is an actual threat to democracy is rarely explained, I must be too dense to understand the obvious link.
SteveF
I don’t agree! My lived experience says the opposite!
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I know some unvaccinated people and they are both anti-vax and anti covid testing. They don’t get tested unless forced to kicking and screaming. In contrast, vaccinated people I know all get tested if they are even exposed. They don’t want to pass it on!
Tom Scharf,
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“how the item of interest is an actual threat to democracy”
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It is very easy to figure out: 1) Anything that might make it less likely for leftists to be elected is always considered a ‘threat to democracy’. 2) Anything that might make it more likely for someone who is not a leftist to get elected is always considered a ‘threat to democracy’. 3) Any structure or rule which allows a non-leftist minority to block leftist power (eg the Senate, filibuster, electoral college) is always considered a ‘threat to democracy’. 4) That same structure or rule is never a threat to democracy if it allows a leftist minority to block the will of a non-leftist majority.
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The only criterion is: does something give more power to the left? If yes, then it does not threaten democracy. If no, it is a threat to democracy. The left consists of mostly of idiots and pretentious fools who are liars boot.
Lucia,
I suspect we travel in somewhat different circles. Lots of people I know are vaccinated and now don’t give the tiniest sh!t about covid.
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The CDC data (October) say the relative risk of death for a vaccinated 30-49 YO is only ~2.6% as high as an unvaccinated person of the same age, and the risk of death for a vaccinated 50-64 YO is only 3.9% that of an unvaccinated person. The absolute risk of death for a vaccinated 30-49 YO is ~3 in 10 million per day, and for a vaccinated 50-64 YO it is ~2 in 1 million per day. These are not meaningful risk levels.
The irony of defining democracy as “my in group always being in power” is pretty striking. Webster is going to need to do some work to redefine that one.
And then there’s this from the WSJ news section:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-the-capitol-riot-turned-a-partisan-congress-toxic-11640601010?mod=hp_lead_pos12
So by inference, all this toxicity was caused by the Orange Man. There is one sentence about the attempt to remove Trump from office over the January 6 riot and no mention at all of the years spent by Democrats in the House trying to remove Trump from office using the fallacious Russian collusion thing and its effects on Republican congressmen.