In the continued saga of Russia vs. Ukraine:
President Vladimir Putin vowed Saturday to defend Russia against an armed rebellion by mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, who led his troops out of Ukraine and into a key city south of Moscow.
I have to admit I find nearly everything unpredictable in this war.
The other day I did come across a colorful metaphor: Ukraine, porcupine of Europe. Hope this shows:
Some discussion of the “porcupine strategy” by James Marinaro here.
Open Thread.
Is there a coup d’etat going on in Russia right now?
Well, it couldn’t happen to nicer people. Wars have a way of not going as planned.
Wow.
Thanks Lucia.
Yup. Unpredictable as heck. Now that Prigozhin has crossed the Rubicon, I still have no idea what’s going to happen next. All I have are questions.
[Edit: for anyone who’s interested in ongoing updates, The War Zone is trying to keep up.]
No matter what happens, I think “accidental” deaths in Russia from falling out of buildings is about to rapidly increase.
Mark… yes…. (I found a new move comments plugin. Comments on the war are moved.)
Prigozhin is probably not a step up from Putin. Prigozhin is a thug. OTOH, he may be a more realistic thug who may be willing to stop at seizing Russia from Putin, and then end the war. We’ll see…. I mean, I have zero insight into the mind of Prigozhin.
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If Putin does squelch Prigozhin I don’t really know how Putin can continue the war though (at least I don’t see how using conventional forces). Wagner was their most effective fighting group.
In the accounts I’ve scanned, Prigozhin isn’t exactly opposed to the war in Ukraine. I believe I’ve read he claimed Ukraine wasn’t the threat it was made out to be on the one hand, and on the other hand his beef doesn’t seem to be that they are fighting Ukraine but rather that the war is being conducted incompetently.
The man probably has a point.
But I agree, probably not a step up from Putin. And yes, I’ve also read claims that Wagner was central to Russia’s efforts.
[Edit: support for claim (1) https://www.newsweek.com/prigozhin-wagner-group-putin-ukraine-war-shoigu-nato-lie-1808700. I can’t find what I read that supports my other claim (that he doesn’t want to stop the war in Ukraine).]
Russia instability is always dangerous, but it’s probably better than stability with a war mongering dictator in charge. If all their focus is internal for a while that is better for everyone. If Putin prevails then he might start looking harder for an off ramp to this war. He’s not going to be able to fight it effectively with the loyalty of his army in question. A cornered Putin is a dangerous situation.
Tom,
I guess. This is one of those days I feel a little uncomfortable being within the kill radius of a nuclear strike on Redstone arsenal. I mean, there’s no reason for any ICBMs to fly. But. Sometimes things happen when chaotic situations occur.
mark,
I’m sure he is not fundamentally opposed to the war in Ukraine. What I don’t know is whether he thinks it’s worth the cost at this point.
Yes: I’ve also read Wagner is central to Russia’s efforts. That’s why I don’t know how Putin would proceed with his war effort if he stops Wagner.
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Yes.
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These are “interesting times”.
The main advantage of a new dictator in Russia will be that he can disavow the previous dictator’s policies and blame the waste of blood and treasure on his predecessor. Of course, that does not mean that a new guy will back out of Ukraine, just that the odds of that happening will go up from zero.
Sorry, the coup was canceled apparently.
How Prigozhin thinks he can back down from this and escape with his life is beyond me. Maybe he doesn’t think he will escape with his life.
mark bofill,
Prigozhin is now said to be going to Belarus, and (apparently) not going to be prosecuted/pursued by Russia.
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He should be careful to avoid staying above the first floor of any building, so that he doesn’t fall too far from an open window. You can never be too safe.
Steve,
Yeah. Wasn’t Putin KGB back in the day?
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Prigozhin is dead, IMO. Just a matter of time.
SteveF,
Yes. Jim predicts a shortened life for Prigozhin.
What I find interesting is the fact that Wagner is now moving into Belarus and maybe as much as 100k Russian regulars have now been redeployed somewhat close to the northern Ukraine border due to the “theatre”of the attempted coup.
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It might be just a coincidence that these forces are now in position to move on Ukraines weakest sections of the front.
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Ed,
Sure. It could all be a feint.
This entire thing is very bizarre. I don’t know how the Wagner – Russia relationship can survive this.
Lucia,
“It could all be a feint.”
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Possible, but seems unlikely. Lots of complaints/bad blood between the Wagner group and the Russian military command over the past year, and especially the last 6 months. If it is a fake-out, it has been in the works for a very long time.
Completely lost on what is happening and the motives behind it all.
Enjoying the puppet theatre immensely despite this.
Bully gets nose punched by a smaller bully who then runs away to his mum?
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(Prizoghyn Freudian slip) Prigozyhn gets to save the lives of his troops for a short time, very sensible.
Now fully (almost) Russian troops and 18 year old Russian conscripts have to go and be killed on the Ukrainian front line.
Will not make Putin happy.
Belarus gets extra fighters against Russia.
Chechen’s see their chance for revenge on their old Russian foe while pretending to be friends.
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So, maybe a realignment of the political forces inside and outside Russia Central sending a not so subtle message to the Russian people to change horses midstream.
Let us hope so.
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As an aside Putin reportedly going to a bunker is historically not a good sign.
No, I doubt this is some sort of deception. You can’t really hide troop movements that are big enough to matter. It seems like a Trump like impulsive move by Prigozhin and he chickened out at the last moment. “Hey, let’s go take over Russia!”. Madness. Putin can’t really let him live, it’s a massive humiliation in the mob world to allow that disrespect to stand.
Nah, not buying it. Putin stages a show where he appears to flee Moscow in the face of Prigozhin’s advance? I don’t think so. That piece of the act would have bought him nothing and may end up costing.
I’ll agree with Tom though. Bizarre situation.
Putin fleeing Moscow is just a rumor.
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Prigozhin dropped his advance on Moscow despite what seems to have been very little opposition. That could mean he overplayed his hand. But now all charges have been dropped against him and his troops, nobody will be punished. So it sounds like he had enough cards to force a deal. If so, it could be Putin whose days are numbered.
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Of course, Prigozhin will have to watch his back. He is used to that since he has been a thug for much longer than he has been wealthy.
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Interesting times.
Mike,
You’ve appeared to miss my point.
Sure, just a rumor. The rumor was fueled by a presidential plane associated with Putin leaving and turning off its transponder. There was no point or profit to doing that if the incident was staged.
OK. I do not think the incident was staged. I never took that seriously.
There is an old adage that if you strike the king, be sure to kill him. A thus like Prigozhin surely understands that. He struck his blow and, for now, both Putin and Progozhin are still breathing. I think the odds are very low of that lasting any length of time.
There are a lot of good thoughts above, but what this episode reminds me more of is the 8 year old who makes a sandwhich and runs away from home to avoid the punishment which awaits him when his dad gets home.
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Our young hero has given no thought to what happens when the sandwhich is gone, where he’s going to live etc. etc.
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My guess is that Prigozhin hadn’t thought the whole thing through possibly because he isn’t capable of it.
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Do we really have any idea whether Prigozhin is at all intelligent? Might he have serious ADD? Does he have any sort of competent staff? Were they in on this thing? Had he given any thought to the downside of defenestration? Has he sufficient respect of other Oligarchs? Has he any source of funding other than Putin?
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My guess is this guy is a lone ranger, has no peers among his associates, and may be considered even worse as a head of state than Putin by the people who might have provided serious support to his insurrection (or whatever it was).
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And not being particularly intelligent, he probably never considered the possibility that he wouldn’t be welcomed with open arms on arrival in Moscow.
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One of the hazards of being highly intelligent is that it leads to the assumption that a some of what one sees in public is the product of other intelligent minds. Maybe, but not this time.
john ferguson,
Unless it turns out Putin and Prigozhin are playing 3 dimensional chess, it looks like this is the sort of thing that happens when a country is run by thugs of various sorts.
My guess is he has a moderately high level of native intelligence. That’s been enough to allow him to be “wily”. The guy can’t actually be stupid or he would not have been able to make the Wagner group one of the Russia’s most effective units. Pure thuggery with willingness to be brutal is not sufficient to be effective.
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But he is not well educated.
My guess is he does not have a deep rank of competent higher level staff. Thugs have trouble keeping competent staff.
My impression is he does not have deep respect of other Oligarchs, some of whom come from “more established” families or who have more respectable resumes and connections. And to the extent they cam out of nowhere, they tend to value accumulation of wealth. In anycase, I’m not sure how much any individual Oligarch “respects” anyone. And individually Oligarchs are just filthy rich guys, so I’m not sure if they have some collective hive mind. Likely they don’t.
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I could easily be wrong though.
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News reports tell us at least Oligarchs are flying out of Moscow, whatever that means:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/giacomotognini/2023/06/24/billionaire-oligarchs-jets-flee-moscow-as-putins-regime-plunges-into-crisis/?sh=1611b4e02b8d
Speculating wildly without much basis, perhaps he was making a point to the shakers and movers in Russia. Some part of what he was saying might have been:
1) I am loyal to the motherland, look. It’s in my power to wreak havoc, and I’d be justified in doing so, but I do not.
2) Look at these incompetents. They have royally screwed up the war in Ukraine and they can’t even provide adequate national security; I could march halfway to Moscow uncontested.
Maybe he is paving the way to be Putin’s successor, or some other maneuver towards a goal we are unaware of.
I don’t know.
This is the kind of wild speculation that I laugh at when I see others come forth with it, but…
Putin and Prigozhin have been close for a long time. The temporary outcome of this has Prigozhin in Belarus, where Putin just relocated tactical nuclear weapons. If ‘rebel’ Prigozhin, who has long advocated stronger moves against Ukraine, happens to seize and use a tactical nuke against Ukraine, Putin has plausible deniability.
Looks weird even as I write it, but…
Prigozhin’s hand was forced by the fact that the Wagner Group was about to be taken from him. He nevertheless acted with a pretty solid plan that enabled him to seize Rostov and some other cities and throw a real scare into Putin. But the full success of his plan depended on a known unknown: the extent to which he would get support in the regular military. That did not pan out. Nevertheless, he survived and seems to have retained control of Wagner (or am I mistaken about that?).
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Maybe Prigozhin is not intelligent, but he sure seems to have a ton of street smarts.
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Addendum: It seems that there are contradictory reports as to whether Prigozhin will have to go into exile and/or retain control of Wagner.
Hi Mike,
“Street smarts” it is; better term than intelligence in this case.
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If the story of the departure of the two oligarchs is accurate, one might suppose that they may have been supporters of whatever Prigozhen had in mind and bailed when they saw it wasn’t going to work.
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I wonder how there could have been any coordination between his drive on Moscow and his “co-conspiritors” in Moscow if the FSB was able to monitor all of their cell-phone activity.
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It looks like Prigozhen is headed for Belarus pending his “execution”. I wonder what the fate of the others will be.
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I’m reminded of the Monmouth Rebellion in 1685 where an Illegitimate son of Charles the Second landed on the SW coast of England imagining that his Protestant cause would be so attractive that he would attract the forces necessary to overcome those of Catholic James II. He was wrong.
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I hope we eventually learn the details of Prigozhen’s scheme and how he came to give up.
Mike M
That’s why I think he had a moderately high level of native intelligence. It’s not possible that he is actually a moron.
Hi Lucia,
It looks like he hadn’t thought through what he was doing. He cannot be a moron, but on the other hand, he could be in way over his head.
John,
I agree. He doesn’t need to be a moron to have gotten in over his head.
There will be no plausible deniability for a nuke going off in Ukraine. Russia will be held accountable for that no matter the semantics involved. What that really means is unclear.
john ferguson (Comment #222296): “It looks like he hadn’t thought through what he was doing.”
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I see no evidence for that statement. It seems like Prigozhin had a well thought out and executed plan. It was a risky plan since there were important variables that he could not control. So he wisely held off implementing it until he had little choice. It didn’t work out. It happens.
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I don’t see anything to criticize, other than Prigozhin being an evil thug.
Mike,
I think I assumed that what appeared to me to be failure bespoke defective or insufficient planning. But I agree that your position also makes sense.
Something I’m seeing a lot of people here seem to assume is that the outcome of this event was bad for the Wagner group. I’m not convinced that is true. It is perhaps true if one assumes Prigozhin’s motivation was to carry out a coup, but I don’t think there’s much reason to assume that was his goal.
I don’t think there’s much reason to believe he carried out this action then gave up because he was overwhelmed or whatever else. There was no apparent opposition to him continuing his advance. By all appearances, he could have kept at his plan/position if he had wanted. At the same time, whatever deal was reached required Putin back down. Putin was threatened, he promised to punish the people who threatened him, and then he… didn’t. To me, the idea Putin in any way “won” this exchange seems difficult to believe.
To me, it seems unlikely Prigozhin ever intended for this to be a coup. Basically nobody even tried to stop him. He had the military might to force a conflict if he wanted. That he’d give up such a strong military position without there being any force presented to oppose him would seem to suggest (at least to me) he was seeking some sort of deal and got it.
Put simply, if Prigozhin thought he was being given a bad deal, I don’t believe he’d have accepted it so easily when he had such a strong position in terms of military force. My impression is he did this with some particular goal in mind, and Putin gave into his demands because there was little other option.
Brandon,
I think pretty much the same. I don’t think he got in over his head, and I no longer think a coup was really his goal. I don’t know exactly what he was up to, but yes. Maybe he accomplished his objective.
Maybe part of it was he wanted the removal of Shoigu and Gerasimov. I read here that nobody has seen Shoigu since the Prigozhin incident.
Don’t know.
Brandon, did anyone write that the apparent consequence of this action was bad for the Wagner group? I didn’t nor do I think it was. Those guys still have jobs although not in the same company.
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I ask because my view was that the more obvious schemes which Prigozhin may bave intended did not appear to work, just as i suggested that what he’d done looked very much like what happens when the 8 year old that runs away from home, eats his sandwhich and then caves to facing whatever his dad has in store.
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And of course this is all wild speculation, at least on my part. Sometime read the history of the July 20 , 1944 plot to assassinate Hitler and take over the government. It probably failed because they couldn’t include enough people in the project to reliably accomplish the takeover without risking secrecy. Those guys seemed a lot smarter than Prigozhin. And yet they failed.
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Given the possibility that what I’ve written is nuts, what do you think Prigozhin was attempting?
John,
I don’t speak for Brandon obviously, but I don’t think anyone is nuts here. We are all speculating without sufficient evidence, and any and all of us might be wrong. I don’t think anyone has put forward anything stupid or obviously wrong. We just don’t know.
Mark, thanks for the thought. I’m always ready to discover that something I thought was nuts. That’s how I live with myself.
It’s sort of like if you cannot deal with being wrong, you can’t really go out on any limbs. And if you don’t go out on any limbs, it seems to me you’re unlikely to grow much.
~grins~ alrighty then.
Brandon
I have no assumption about whether it is or is not bad for the Wagner group. I don’t have the impression anyone else is making any such assumption either.
mark
And I think everyone is saying we just don’t know.
lucia:
Multiple people here have expressed the idea the leader of the Wagner group will “fall out a window” as a reference to being assassinated in regard to this deal. Do you disagree people have said that? If not, I am curious. How do you interpret people suggesting the leader of the Wagner group will be assassinated as not indicating this outcome will be bad for the Wagner group?
FWIW, I have had two comments disappear into the aether after my attempts at submitting them encountered a moderation page which ultimately did not let them through.
Brandon, I thinik Prizhogin can have screwed up without Wagner being in troublde. In other words I see Wagner as a group which might plow on withpout him, although its European incarnation may be absorbed into the Russdian Army. There would astill be their African branch which might coninue on as Wagner.
I’m not sure if the following quote from Twitter is against the rules, but here goes:
Brandon
Sure. But the Prigozhin himself (the leader of the Wagner group) is not the same thing as the Wagner group itself.
I’m curious how you interpret the two things as the same. The Illinois Governor being indicted was never the same as all of Illinois being indicted. Presidents dying weren’t the same as the entire US being harmed. So… I don’t think it’s on me to explain why two different things are not the same thing.
test
I don’t think any scheme that has the murderous ire of Putin and the FSB as the result has been thought through or ended up as planned. He could have just resigned.
Wagner being folded into the Russian army would also not appear be a goal given the recent rhetoric of how inept the Russian army has been. None of this makes any sense, which suggests it was ill planned and/or ill executed.
WSJ:
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-wagner-prigozhin-putin/card/-careful-around-open-windows-ex-cia-director-warns-wagner-chief-prigozhin-SmVRXoeLl85Q9xzIPK8x
“In an apparent reference to the manner in which some Russian politicians and businessmen have died in recent years, former CIA Director David Petraeus warned the owner of Russian paramilitary group Wagner to “stay away from open windows.””
Putin being publicly MIA in a time of crisis is also another brick in odd town.
Tom
He may have reason to believe that would also result in his death. Putin might see that as betrayal. When Trump feels betrayed, he “throws people under the bus” metaphorically. Putin? Well…
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Do you know the difference between an Roman Catholic advent calendar and a Russian Orthodox one? When you open the window of a Russian Orthodox calendar an Oligarch falls out.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/wagner-boss-missing-out-contact-30320166
Theory 1: He’s already fallen out of a window.
Theory 2: He’s on his way to his troops.
Theory 3: Who knows?
Brava, the Russian Orthodox Advent Calendar.
Why don’t these news stories gives us date and time!!
https://www.foxnews.com/world/wagner-group-leader-resurfaces-first-time-rebellion-russian-leadership
Published June 26, 2023 11:50am EDT
When was the 11 minute voice recording posted?! 11:49 EDT? Or….. yesterday?!!
It does say “Yevgeny Prigozhin, the owner of the Wagner Group military company, records his video addresses in Rostov-on-Don, Russia, Saturday, June 24, 2023. (Prigozhin Press Service via AP)” under an image. Is that the voice recording? And where the “f” is the link to the voice recording on “social media”!!!!
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/didnt-intend-to-overthrow-russian-government-wagner-chief-over-mutiny-4154747
So… Telegram messaging app.
Tom Scharf (Comment #222315): “I don’t think any scheme that has the murderous ire of Putin and the FSB as the result has been thought through or ended up as planned.”
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If Prigozhin thought that way, he’d be a laborer or factory worker, not a billionaire with a private army. The man is obviously willing to take risks to get/keep what he wants. He might still end up ruling Russia, although the odds of that have taken a nose dive.
Well, Russian defense minister Shoigu has resurfaced. Clearly he hasn’t been terminally defenestrated yet.
[Edit: You know, the title is a little misleading. The article mentions that it’s not clear when the video was recorded.]
The best explanation I have at the moment is Prigozhin lost his sh** when he thought Russia attacked his troops. He then thought better of the march on justice (he probably has vulnerable family and friends in Russia) and decided that this plan was not going to end well and aborted while it still might be possible. There can’t be any trust left at this point.
The mutiny is going to be blamed on the US. Whether this was the plan all along or just an adlib to get past what happened is the question. I hope there isn’t a smoking gun. Putin can’t afford to appear weak, or he’ll be done. It’s better for his survival for him to be seen as losing to the US/West than Ukraine. I’d bet that there will be a push to drag us in directly over the next few days to weeks.
What happened?
Whatever happened it was good for the Ukraine and bad for Putin.
How many shoulders can he look over at once?
If it is true that he has resorted to violence against families no one in Russia can trust him not to do the same to everyone else.
Surely catastrophic.
lucia:
In your examples, the people who were not harmed were also not involved. In this case a large portion of the Wagner group participated in this action. If the outcome of the action would be bad for the guy at the front of the line, it seems likely it’d be bad for the people standing in line behind him too. The idea Putin would give them a free pass if he could instead punish them seems implausible.
Tom Scharf:
I’ve been told Putin was already planning on folding the group into the Russian army before this, though offhand I can’t confirm that is the case. Either way, the reporting I’ve seen indicates members of the group are being given the option to join the army but are also being allowed to go to Belarus or even return to their homes in Russia.
Given Russia’s need for manpower and its tactics for getting more recruits, the option to quit the fighting and go home could be a big victory for a lot of people. Assuming Putin follows through on it, of course.
Brandon,
Sure. So? That doesn’t mean they become the same person nor that they will have the same outcome. You might be assuming that is true. But you claimed we assumed it. As far as I can tell, no one here assumed they must have the same outcome.
Uhmmm… Ok. So…. now I’m mystified that you wrote this.
The above seem to be you claiming we assume this is bad for Wagner but you think it might not be. “We” (or at least I and several others) tell you we haven’t made any assumption how it would affect Wagner. And now you seem to be explaining you are the one who thinks things will turn out bad for the Wagner group.
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I have no idea how things will turn out for individual members of the group. Unless it turns out Prigozhin and Putin are playing some 4 dimentional chess, I think it’s likely Prigozhin will fall out a window. Not certain. Likely.
Our guys and gals constantly training. Right now, at 11 PM, about three dozen Army Blackhawk helicopters are attacking about 9,000 square miles of the Alabama countryside. The US advantage in night vision operations is on full display. Nearby are Stinson Stagefield Army Heliport and Fort Rucker [now Fort Novosel].
Screenshot of the armada: https://twitter.com/rklier21/status/1673529266229706752?s=20
lucia:
My impression was a lot of people here were assuming Putin would punish members (and leadership) of the Wagner group for engaging in what appears to have possibly been a coup attempt due to the assumption that action had failed to achieve its goals. This impression of mine might have been incorrect, but your analogies involving people not suffering for actions they did not engage in does nothing to indicate such.
As far as I know, I have not said anything suggesting things will turn out bad for the Wagner group. What I believe I have said is if the outcome of this event were as bad as people here seem (to me) to believe, Putin would likely make the Wagner group suffer. I don’t think that’s the case though. My impression is Putin “lost,” and as such, will give into demands that benefit the Wagner group.
My understanding is thus: The Wagner group was going to be dissolved, with its membership getting folded into the Russian army. People within the group did not like this and started calling for action to prevent it. The Wagner group was then attacked by Russian military forces. After this, it marched toward Moscow in a military action that went largely unopposed. Hostilities were then ended with a deal in which Wagner group members were promised they’d be allowed to withdraw from the war and go back home (if they wanted).
Given how much members of the Wagner group complained about the war and its handling, a result in which their membership is allowed to withdraw from the war seems like a meaningful success to me.
Brandon
I haven’t said that. No one else seems to have either. I don’t know why you developed that impression.
In the end, you seem to have developed “impressions” about what people must think based on nothing they’ve said and you are asking them to explain why they think what you think they think. Other than telling you “I don’t think that”, I have no idea how I can give you more of an answer.
https://www.npr.org/2023/06/27/1184462527/russia-drops-charges-against-prigozhin-and-others-who-took-part-in-brief-rebelli
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So far no announcement about plans to push anyone out windows.
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They still don’t know where Prigozhin is for sure.
And
I suggested Putin might have Prigozhin killed. I still think he might. I’ve sort of lost the thread of what the discussion between Lucia and Brandon is about exactly. My initial thinking on the incident had changed, what of it.
The non-fog of war… Noelreports post said, “Russian appointed head of Crimea, Sergey Aksyonov, reports that overnight railway tracks were damaged in the area of Kirovske.”
To verify I examined the NASA FIRMS fire maps for the last 24 hours and found fires Northwest of Kirovske. I used these geo coordinates from NASA and plugged it into Google Maps and bingo … the fire co-locates with RR tracks Northeast of Kirovske.
Results: https://twitter.com/rklier21/status/1673668000719708162?s=20
1. Noelreports post of RR tracks destroyed in Kirovske, Crimea, 2. NASA FIRMS fire map showing 24 HR fires with coordinates of the location, 3. Google Maps of the location of those same coordinates pinpointing RR tracks in Kirovske.
I am not joining in the parlor guessing game of what might or might not happen to any of the players in the Russian political mess. Given the duplicity, treachery, and evil that permeates the Russian system of governing and the dearth of information on details about all the various and sundry activities that took place, silence is the prudent approach.
For example, there is an unconfirmed report of Wagner forces using the trek to Moskow as a screen to raid Russian army munitions storage facilities. What did they get?….. WMDs? Does Prigozhin have tactical nukes in his arsenal? Lukashenko recently stated publicly that Putin gave him nukes.
I personally tracked about a dozen military air transport air-liners leaving Moskow in the overnight hours of the uprising. Web scuttlebutt was they were carrying family members to safety. That made me think… Did Prigozhin or any of the other parties kidnap family members to hold as ransom?
Quite a few other stakeholders have not publicly been heard from:
The intelligence services [SVR, FSB and FSO, GUSP] are all successor agencies to the Soviet Union?s KGB, are administratively independent of each other. What are they up to?
The various military arms normally act independently from each other. The air force was the only branch that countered Wagner. They paid dearly for it. They are probably out for vengeance.
The Rosgvardiya [National Guard of Russia], which the press dubbed the personal army of Vladimir Putin, wields an inordinate amount of power.
Are all these players still loyal to Putin? There are many more questions than answers.
I suggest Wagner was a victim of its own success. They were apparently the most effective fighting force for the Russians and Prigozhin took every opportunity to point this out. Ukraine propaganda referenced Wagner constantly. This embarrassed the Russian army and its leaders. The plan to absorb Wagner into the Russian army seems more like an internal political drama than a good idea to further the war effort. I don’t see how the Russian army gets better here, except for getting that annoying thorn out of its side. About the only certainty here is that both sides of this engagement came out worse than they started in the short term.
If I was betting, my 50/50 at this time is Prigozhin is dead within 3 years. Earlier if he can’t keep his big mouth shut. Belarus is not safe for him. He’s going to need to disappear which is going to be hard.
Tom Scharf,
He would probably be safer in Africa in the company of Wagner mercenaries.
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If he is murdered, I expect it would be something like poisoning with nerve agent, and his death then claimed to be due to a heart attack or stroke. I wouldn’t give him 50% chance of being alive 18 months from now. Michael Corleone seems to have been less ruthless than Putin… who makes inconvenient people disappear with impressive regularity..
SteveF (Comment #222341): “I wouldn’t give him 50% chance of being alive 18 months from now. Michael Corleone seems to have been less ruthless than Putin… who makes inconvenient people disappear with impressive regularity.”
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We shall see. I won’t be betting either way.
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Yes Putin is ruthless, but Prigozhin might well be more ruthless. Putin has no qualms about having people killed. Prigozhin seems to have no qualms about doing the job himself. It might even be a job that he enjoys doing.
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I would not be surprised if Progozhin outlives Putin. Putin might not have much time left as President and I don’t think he will ever be President emeritus.
Tom Scharf:
I think that move was definitely a matter of internal politics. A common tactic people like Putin like to use is to play different factions within their rule against one another so no single faction gets too powerful. The Wagner group was a tool Putin played against the regular army. My impression is the group got too influential so Putin decided to get rid of it. Not because that would be what’s best for Russian interests but because it’d be what’s best for Putin’s interests.
lucia:
I don’t agree with your interpretation of what people have and have not said, but I also don’t think it’s particularly important. I made a point because I thought people believed something that may be incorrect. If they don’t actually believe that, then there’s no harm. All that means is I wasted a bit of time responding to a viewpoint nobody (at least here) actually holds.
There is no need for you to give me “more of an answer.” I certainly haven’t asked for one. If I did get the wrong impression about what some people thought, oh well.
mark bofill:
Put simply, I got the impression people here thought the overall outcome of events was bad for the Wagner group so I decided to express the possibility it was in fact not bad for the Wagner group. I think there’s room to believe the outcome of events was actually good for the Wagner group. That’s all.
Brandon,
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Before your comment at “Brandon Shollenberger (Comment #222301)”
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No one says anything about what they thought would happen to the Wagner group. The only Wagner person people were speculating on was Prigozhin.
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Obviously you are free to post your own speculations about what would happen to them. Yes. The outcome may be good for them. Or bad for them. I haven’t made any assumption about that one way or the other and I don’t know what is going to happen to them.
Thanks Lucia, thanks Brandon. I follow now.
lucia:
Perhaps, but people seemed to be clear in thinking he had given up, that his plan had failed. For instance:
And:
And:
To me, this created the impression people were assuming Prigozhin had “failed” or “lost.” As such, I decided to comment to suggest the possibility Prigozhin had in fact “won,” that he did accomplish the goal he set out to accomplish.
You may feel there is absolutely no basis for someone such as me to reach that impression, but I disagree. I think the general tone and tenor of the conversation does support the idea people here felt Prigozhin had “lost.” I also think there’s evidence which could reasonably lead some people to think Prigozhin actually “won.” That’s all I was ever attempting to say.
Brandon,
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You keep conflating people having opinions on “what happens to Prigozhin” with having opinions “what happens to the Wagner group”.
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I really don’t think there is more to be said with your theory of how expressing opinions about the former “created the impression” that we had opinions on the latter even though we never had expressed the slightest opinion on that.
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We all certainly are talking about various ideas about things.
There is no question that Prigozhin lost the battle. He is in exile. He won’t be tried, but that does not mean he won’t be executed. It seems that his private army will cease to exist. None of that was part of the plan.
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But Prigozhin survived and he weakened Putin. So although he lost the battle there is a small chance he will yet come out on top. He lost, but not as badly as he might have.
Hi Mike,
Don’t you think Wagner in Africa will continue? It seems to me that there is a group of investors supprting Wagner, his colleagues, and they may have concluded that Prigozhin is too loose a cannon to have fronting for them. It’s possible that he is/was their most competent battlefield tactitian, but his radical monologs may have become too much for them.
It also seems possible to me that his associates were not in agreement with his indirect verbal attacks on Putin’s leadership.
Possibly his colleagues hadn’t thought through where this could lead.
Putin has his own private army in Moscow and if the conflict had been only with them, his colleagues could have borne it, but not the Russian army.
And as to planning, from reports in this morning’s press, our people knew his “coupe” was coming several days earlier.
And of course this is all speculation. I think a lot of what’s in the press is not any better informed thant what I’ve posted above.
Yeah. I think “what happens to Wagner” as a group is the most difficult thing to predict. I’ve read that Russia has announced they would be absorbed into the Russian military on July 1, and had announced this before the mutiny.
I’ve also read
* Russia has started taking their arms.
* Lukashenko is allowing some to come to Belarus at their own expense.
* Lukashenko may provide some old closed base (but not fund the Wagner group.)
* Lukashenko may use them to train his own troops.
* Individual soldiers can join the regular Russian forces.
* The US is working to block transfer of funds that eventually gets to Wagner pockets.
Yada… yada…
What happens to Wagner as a whole? Sub-groups? Individual soldiers? I have no idea.
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As for Prigozhin himself: unless this is 4 dimensional chess, very good chance he “falls out a window” within two years. Heck, even if it’s 4 dimensional chess, there’s a good chance of he’ll fall out a window. I mean even if the situation is somehow Putin and Prigozhin are involved in some elaborate “theater”, unless Putin falls out a window, Prigozhin will ‘fall out the window’ within 2 years. The only reason he would not ‘fall out the window’ is Putin still needs him to run military forces. But in the fullness of time, he won’t be needed anymore. And Putin will get him thrown out a window. Putin has long arms. He can throw him out a window in Belarus or pretty much anywhere. (And, of course “fall out a window” includes “tossed in front of a bus”, “poisoned” and any number of other options.)
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This “theater” between Putin and Prigozhin theory would fall in the “highly unlikely, but not impossible” category. But then there seem to be so many possible theories that are highly unlikely but not impossible. The sum over all possibilities is one– but… other than Prigozhin falls out of a window in 2 years, I don’t think any specific theory has a probability greater than 0.5.
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Heck… I think there is a roughly 20% chance Prigozhin won’t fall out a window! So if he doesn’t fall out a window, I won’t have been “wrong”. There is a lot of plotting and planning going around. Lots of people including Putin could also ‘fall out windows’.
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Prigozhin’s plane at least appears to have gone to Belarus. I don’t think I’ve read any reports of people actually seeing him in Belarus. I haven’t read reports of Wagner troop movements. Etc. (I’m only googling and getting news reports. I am not following blogs or forums who claim inside info.)
Yes, I think anonymous government sources spouting off through the NYT’s is just the IC trying to make Putin’s life harder and build distrust and dissent. It’s a golden opportunity.
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It’s possible it is true, but there is no reason to believe it. I don’t trust anything through this path anymore. If they want me to believe it, then they need to starting putting names in articles. Trump Russia Collusion and Pulitzer prizes have put a dent in my gullibility.
I found this a compelling analysis:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/27/world/europe/prigozhin-wagner-russia-putin.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20230627&instance_id=96170&nl=from-the-times®i_id=47241265&segment_id=137810&te=1&user_id=daa021d1d774b8d74d9ffaa71ad78cb8
I guess I am unaware when the ban on speculation took effect in internet discussions, ha ha. Most of the time the speculation was even labeled. Working out things with great uncertainty is part of the fun, and as covid taught everyone, with great uncertainty comes being wrong a lot of the time. The world didn’t end because someone’s speculation on incomplete information ended up being proven incorrect. Even Team Science got it wrong occasionally, if only they labelled their speculation a little more clearly.
I love being wrong. Of course it helps to find out that I was wrong, otherwise??
I design and build gizmos, and did a couple of R/C airplanes. I’m always unnerved when something works on the first try.
I know I’m not that sharp and worry about the proportion of luck was involved. Also, if the thing works immediately, I’m denied what I would have learned from troubleshooting.
john ferguson (Comment #222350): “Don’t you think Wagner in Africa will continue?”
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That might be so. But it won’t serve as a power base for Prigozhin in Russia.
Tom,
There is definitely no ban on speculation on this internet!!
The primary function of Twitter is to turn rumors published in the new media into full-blown conspiracy theories. This one is happening at lightning speed, and I am doing my part in spreading it:
Rumor reported in the WSJ:
“Prigozhin originally intended to capture Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Gen. Valery Gerasimov, the chief of Russia’s general staff, during a visit to a southern region that borders Ukraine that the two were planning. But the Federal Security Service, or FSB, found out about the plan two days before it was to be executed, according to Western officials.”
Link [might bypass the paywall]:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/wagners-prigozhin-planned-to-capture-russian-military-leaders-805345cf?reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
This is feeding into an earlier rumor reported in the NYT:
“Russian General Knew About Mercenary Chief’s Rebellion Plans, U.S. Officials Say
Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Wagner, may have believed he had support in Russia’s military”
Link [behind a paywall]:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/27/us/politics/russian-general-prigozhin-rebellion.html
The conspirator is General Sergei Surovikin, a bitter rival of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Gen. Valery Gerasimov, the chief of Russia’s general staff, both of whom were targeted by Prigozhin.
The conspiracy theory works because it passes the logic test.
Update, this is happening fast…
“ INFORMATION FROM RUSSIAN MILITARY CORRESPONDENTS!!!
According to preliminary information, Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Forces Surovikin and his deputy, Colonel-General Yudin, were detained and taken to the Lefortovo pre-trial detention center.”
https://twitter.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1674026317262536704?s=61&t=q3_InP1nXWdPIXqj8656mQ
Russell,
Yeah… everything does hit Twitter first. However, what hits Twitter is totally unreliable. I do read Twitter… then I try to see if there is any “real” news report that hits Google, and read that.
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Of course even the “real” stuff is unreliable right now. And of course, we get “real” stuff on Harry and Meghan, which doesn’t matter. And if you care, you just wait a day or two to see if it’s true. It appears true they lost their Spotify contract and were slammed mercilessly– called Grifters. It appear untrue they lost their netflix contract. Rumors of divorce abound– daily reports. So far, nothing has come of that.
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Right now, the Russia reports are sort of on the same level of “truth” as Harry and Meghan. There is a grain in most stuff. But…. wait….
Oh… and in case you missed it… On the news we have a story involving Prince Harry AND Putin.
https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2023/jun/28/terrible-ideas-tedious-shows-zero-talent-meghan-and-harrys-trainwreck-podcast-career
I for one, would have loved that interview to take place. 🙂
Lucia,
“However, what hits Twitter is totally unreliable”
Yes, and more than unreliable, much of it is intentionally misleading, but Twitter is not a monolith. I actively search for sites that have at least a modicum of reliability. This is crucially important in news dealing with this war. The Twitter source I quoted about General Sergei Surovikin being arrested as a conspirator comes from one of my newest Twitter mavens… MAKS 23. I have been burned by my trusted sources before. MAKS 23 did put a caveat on this information “INFORMATION FROM RUSSIAN MILITARY CORRESPONDENTS”. Time will tell on this one.
I agree with everyone, it’s unfair to be born into a circus of unfair and exploitive media coverage, and it’s unfair to exploit the exploiters and then declare yourself a victim during your self initiated and publicized worldwide privacy tour. I guess the world is more interesting to many with this circus than without it.
Lucia,
Love the Putin/Prince Harry tie-in!
I still follow this stuff too. It’s a great respite from all the serious stuff in the news. Much of the info is second-hand rumors but since it doesn’t matter if anything is true or not, it’s still fun. I have been curious as to what changed the US media from being generally supportive of Harry and Meghan to generally skeptical. I think it was the outrageous NY “high-speed” paparazzi chase. That was an obvious publicity stunt.
Russell,
I think the media changing was inevitable. Because they are the type who were bound to eventually claim something like the “high speed chase”. Also: the media and especially the “infotainment” part of the media exist to make money by entertaining the public. Meghan was an ok actress (evidently. I never watched suits.) But she isn’t acting in films of tv now. And it looks like they probably can’t make anyone any money anymore because they don’t seem to really have good ideas for shows, programs and so on. And they don’t seem to really want to work.
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The lack of novel ideas is probably the larger problem for them.
Yes, I am not entertained by either of them or their goofy podcasts. I do enjoy watching their foibles play out in public.
Russell
Which they don’t get paid for!
She kissed the wrong frog.
JF very funny to some but remember Prince Harry is probably not French.
RK
“Lucia,
Love the Putin/Prince Harry tie-in!”
You might have missed the other news on Twitter.
Game of Thrones spoiler.
Putin inviting PH to be an adviser in the Russian court wars and intrigue you describe.
With nearly 1000 years of family knowledge of how to conduct internecine wars and blood feuds Prince Harry could be Putin’s perfect new consigliere advising on who’s back to stab next.
Did any of you follow the recent Meghan Markle ‘Face of Dior’ saga?
In the midst of all the negative publicity of getting fired from Spotify and Nexfix, suddenly there appeared wonderful news, Meghan was going to be the main celebrity for the House of Dior: “Is Meghan Markle set to be the new face of Dior? Sure, she may have lost her Spotify deal after one season — but new royal rumours suggest the Duchess of Sussex could front Dior campaigns.”
It was splashed all over the media. But alas, it wasn’t to be: “Meghan Markle Rumor Debunked as the New Face of Dior
The luxury fashion house denies the speculation.”
In fact, Dior later denied ever even discussing anything with her.
I wonder how that rumor got started!
But the thing that really amused me was the subtle body slam delivered by Queen Camilla:
“Queen Camilla takes a dig at Meghan Markle by wearing Dior at Royal Ascot days after label distanced itself from Sussexes”
You have to see the image:
https://twitter.com/rklier21/status/1674264458909057024?s=20
Links to articles:
[Caution this Royal Family nonsense is addictive.]
https://harpersbazaar.com.au/is-meghan-markle-the-next-face-of-dior/
https://www.lofficielusa.com/pop-culture/meghan-markle-dior-deal-denied-rumor-prince-harry
https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/queen-camilla-takes-a-dig-at-meghan-markle-by-wearing-dior-at-royal-ascot-days-after-label-distanced-itself-from-sussexes/news-story/24f7329327ae97a21f425ccb8c9bb058
My Twitter whisperer may have got it right yesterday. Today ISW and the Moskow Times are reporting that Army General Sergei Surovikin has been arrested:
“Russian authorities reportedly arrested Army General Sergei Surovikin on June 28, possibly indicating that the Kremlin intends to purge the MoD of figures viewed as disloyal.”
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-28-2023
“Russian General Arrested”
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/06/28/russian-general-arrested-following-wagner-mutiny-mt-russian-a81685
Not all my sources are reporting this. A few are reporting that he dropped off the radar and his whereabouts are unknown, so anything is possible.
There is a sequence in Sergei Eisenstein’s Ivan the Terrible in which Ivan feigns a terminal illness to better appraise the loyalty of his associates. It did not go well for those who revealed incorrect approaches to the situation.
Reports from Russia suggest that the reason Putin didn’t suppress the insurgents immdediately was that he wanted to see how things would shake out among HIS associates.
I suspect that most Russians remember Ivan the Terrible’s scheme and would find it plausible for Putin to reprise it.
I’m more inclined to think he didn’t immediately suppress it because he couldn’t.
John
Yep. It’s hard to distiguish what Putin had to do vs what he might do even if he didn’t have to. In Ivan’s case, he was not dying. I’ll look up the historical event, but I bet he didn’t do it while an army was marching on Moscow.
My expectation is the response will be to eliminate most meritocratic and measurable forms of admission policies. Dropping test scores will be the most extreme of these polices, leading to grade inflation on steroids.
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My view is elite schools have been in practice threading a needle, allowing their preferred class in through a series of secret handshakes (holistic admissions, elite K-12 schools, and real merit from better schools), then giving priority of public school Asians and Whites to diversity candidates with lower scores.
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They will now likely retrench to super opaque admissions in order to achieve their main goals. They * know * that if there are measurable and publicly available ways to gain admission, the very same highly driven parents and students will win that race, it doesn’t really matter what the criteria are. If it is clown ability, then we will see highly innovative and credentialed Asian clowns.
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Which is all to say that academic institutions will put themselves in the position to deprioritizing measurable academic ability as an entrance to academic institutions. Most people see this already, but they at some point will have to admit to themselves what they are doing. This type of virtue signaling and clumsy social engineering is part of why there is a backlash against academia currently. They could have had class driven affirmative action all along.