I could post about my competition– and will. But the most important thing that happened there is the announcement of fundraising for my pro’s wife. She is 27 years old, had lymphoma and they are pretty well buried under medical bills. It’s a double (possible triple) whammy because, as a dancer, she can’t compete, she can’t really teach from Friday-Monday (inclusive) on the chemo weeks. You don’t know her, so I don’t expect anything, but I figure with fundraisers, the main thing is to tell people. You never know.
I’ve never used Go Fund Me, so I gave a modest amount. (Turns out you can zero out the ‘tip’ and you can link to your bank to minimize the hit of fees.) But if you want to read, her letter is here. The link below is direct to the donation page. Otherwise, open thread.
P.S. Did Jim and I win our multi? Yes. We did. š
Russel,
There is no “trouble”.
The rules are gender neutral. Women pros leading women ams happens much more often than male pros leading women ams. There is one couple with a woman Am lead (her name is Cal) and a male pro follow (I can’t remember is name).
Jessica (of Jessica and Greg) dances as lead with some of her female am students dancing as follows. It’s less common, but it means she can take more competition students! She’s tall. It works. (In line of dance dances, it definitely helps if the lead is taller than the follow.)
In England, there has always– and I mean since at least the 50s, girl-girl couples competing in the same sex category. This mostly due to two things (a) greater interest among girls and ( b) to be a teacher, you need to know the other part. For example: Vlad teaches me. How can he teach it without knowing the woman’s part? Likewise, Brianna teaches leads. She needs to know the man’s part.
Cal, the am who dances lead, is tall. A fair number of tall women learn to lead. If they dance socially, it’s a good skill. They just want to dance and women will dance with them.
In pro pro there are a few male male couples. It’s rare. When I’ve seen them, they haven’t placed well. For example: Cal’s pro danced competitively with is partner.
There is a person dancing Amateur who is gender ambiguous. They are dancing lead in some heats, follow in others.
When people who clearly look like men dance as follows, there is no clear “right way to dress”. That’s a tricky thing in an activity that is, rightly or wrongly, very gendered.
Some missiles will switch to video or other guidance in the final stage after using GPS to navigate. This works for fixed targets. This is probably pretty successful for hitting a certain window in an apartment building. There is almost zero information on how successful these things are when fired in anger.
Gulf war era SLAM missile guided by pilot at 43:12 here:
https://youtu.be/MyjnMKNifUo?t=2596
The Tomahawks used pre-programmed terrain recognition to hit fixed target without GPS.
WashPost: Why we fly the Mexican flag at the L.A. protests
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/06/14/mexican-flag-california-protest/
The long history behind Los Angeles protestorsā Mexican flags
https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/los-angeles-protesters-mexican-flags-history-rcna212139
Why are people so triggered by the Mexican flag at the LA protests?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jun/12/mexican-flag-la-protests
The Mexican flag has become a defining symbol of the LA protests
https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/10/us/los-angeles-protests-trump-mexican-flag-hnk
The flag of Mexico has emerged as a symbol at the L.A. protests
https://www.npr.org/2025/06/11/nx-s1-5429764/the-flag-of-mexico-has-emerged-as-a-symbol-at-the-l-a-protests
And of course, the NYT out with the Republicans pounce narrative.
Mexican Flags Have Become Republican Fodder, but Protesters Keep Waving Them
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/11/us/la-protests-mexican-flags-republican-reaction.html
The media apologists are at it again, absolute homogenous group think for a comprehensively obvious bad idea. This strategy is not going to work and it is another ham handed weird messaging attempt like explaining Defund the Police and supporting looting. Duh-mmmb.
Tom Scharf,
Using inertial to get to what might be called the final approach fix then switching to video sounds very likely.
It’s interesting that the Iranians thought they could stay home until the negotiations thinking the Israelis would wait until then just in case there was some sort of settlement.
One would have thought they’d have more respect for the folks who brought us exploding pagers.
Lucia,
ā The rules are gender neutral. ā
Well, that certainly takes all the fun out of it!
A lot of Iranians really hate their theocratic rulers. So it seems that Israel has been able to recruit a lot of Iranian “traitors” to gather intel for them. That raises another possibility for how the Israeli’s could hit a specific apartment from a thousand miles away. Maybe they had someone plant a homing device on the target. Perhaps it could even be activated by a signal from the missile just before final approach.
Israel hitting Iran with a lot of payload is a stretch AFAICT. I don’t think they have done much or anything to underground facilities and not sure they can realistically with just a long range fighter jet.
Here is one Iran nuclear facility today. Some targeted damage to important parts but not exactly large scale destruction.
https://media.cnn.com/api/v1/images/stellar/prod/ap25165709738996.jpg
They can do aerial refueling (?) but that is still past the official combat range of the aircraft. Here are F-16 a couple days ago, that is one large fuel drop tank. That a long trip to reload.
https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1933397961645367806
8x 250 lb bombs = 2,000 lb payload.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GBU-39_Small_Diameter_Bomb
In theory the F-35A can carry up to 18,000 lb but I couldn’t figure out if that has to be reduced in order to fly all the way to Iran.
From today this is in Haifa. Some ballistic missiles get intercepted, some make it through and detonate. Iran has about 2000 ballistic missiles. Iran is going to do some damage with these.
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1933984710817886652
Tom,
Yup. I think they need B-2’s dropping GBU-57’s. They need us to do that.
And yup. Some of Iran’s ordnance is going to make it through. Darn good thing Iran doesn’t yet have any nuclear warheads. Makes me understand why they felt they had to act now, even knowing they couldn’t finish the job alone.
Surely if either nuclear site is properly taken out it will result in a large amount of radioactive debris.
Not Chernobyl if course but still a long term problem for Iran.
Even hitting stores if the enriched stuff would be a nightmare.
Though it would probably eliminate use of the site in perpetuity.
Surely if either nuclear site is properly taken out it will result in a large amount of radioactive debris.
Not Chernobyl if course but still along term problem for Iran.
Even hitting stores if the enriched stuff would be a nightmare.
Though it would probably eliminate use of the site in perpetuity.
If I was Iranian having my country bombed would up my patriotism, not make me want to change the government so might have an unexpected effect
From what I have seen, it sounds like the Iranians are using U-235 for their bombs. Am I mistaken? U-235 is enriched from natural uranium, so no fission products to speak of. U-235 has a very long half life, so there should not be a big problem with radioactive contamination.
If they are using plutonium from reactors, radioactive contamination would be a much bigger problem. Especially if the fission products are still on site.
The rules are. But in practice, this is a highly gendered sport.
I think 1/4th to 1/3rd the male pros are gay– but they definitely present as male on the dance floor and when teaching. What they do at home… dunno.
Most XY pros absolutely, positively do not want to dance “follow” in competition for a range of reasons.
I could post all my speculations about the perspectives and attitudes. But economically, being a transgender teacher selling services to individual students is generally going to be really tough. It’s not easy to find a competition partner period, but it’s just exponentially more difficult.
The Iranians would be wise to distribute their storage of enriched uranium at multiple sites around the country. Currently Israel has maybe set back this program months at best from what I understand. They need to get to the already enriched uranium and underground enrichment sites and destroy them.
Even then that would only set them back years if they were committed. Iran can just dig deeper holes. We are way past them having the knowledge and expertise, this is a desperate attempt to stop it. Iran would need to believe major military action would be used again if they restart the program.
Mike M.
IIRC, (learned about it years ago) harvesting weapons grade plutonium requires that it be produced in a specific type of enriched uranium reactor with a ‘very short’ exposure of U238 to high intensity neutron flux. Garden variety plutonium from normal reactors contains too many undesirable plutonium isotopes to be useful for weapons. I don’t think Iran has a suitable reactor. All of which goes to show just how stupid Jimmy Carter actually was in killing the breeder reactor program.
angech,
What Mike M said. Uranium (235 or 238) is so slow in decay that it presents no (zero, none) radiation risk compared to plutonium (or Heaven forbid) a nuclear weapon. The USA and other countries use depleted uranium for armor piercing bullets: it is very dense and very hard.
Tom Scharf,
I suspect Israel’s next targets will be the mullahs who control Iran, not Iran’s centrifuges. Without the mullahs, there would be no centrifuges.
I hope the inventory of virgins in Heaven is high….. wouldn’t want those fellows disappointed upon arrival.
Mike M.
Does “slow in decay” mean that the level of radiation is lower than Plutonium? And that it continues longer?
ie. high decay equald high level of radiation per unit weight?
SteveF,
You are correct that you need a research reactor to make plutonium for a bomb. That requires Pu-239. If that sits in a reactor for very long, it gets converted to Pu-240, which makes the plutonium useless for a bomb. I think it is because of spontaneous neutron emission, which triggers the chain reaction before criticality is reached, resulting in a fizzle.
I thought that a research reactor is much easier to design and build than a power reactor. So I think it odd if the Iranians can’t build one. Maybe a plutonium bomb is trickier to build?
There might be some risk from uranium if you inhale it. Plutonium is much worse, but still nothing like the short-lived fission products.
john,
Yes, a short half-life means a high decay rate, which means a high level of radiation for a given amount of material. It is actually moles, not mass, that matters. Also, the type of radiation emitted matters. Beta is worse than alpha, since it penetrates further. And gamma is even worse. Neutrons are the worst, but there are not a lot of neutron emitters.
MikeM
Alpha is pretty darn bad if you inhale or ingest it!
lucia,
Ingesting an alpha emitter is only a problem if it is absorbed in the gut and not readily excreted. Uranium is poorly absorbed and is, for the most part, quickly excreted. So not a problem unless you eat a lot of it.
Uranium is pretty common in root vegetables.
Bananas are radioactive because of the potassium-40. Not a problem.
SteveF
angech,
“What Mike M said. Uranium (235 or 238) is so slow in decay that it presents no (zero, none) radiation risk compared to plutonium (or Heaven forbid) a nuclear weapon.”
U-235 is enriched from natural uranium, so no fission products to speak of. U-235 has a very long half life, so there should not be a big problem with radioactive contamination.
Mike M “U-235 is enriched from natural uranium, so no fission products to speak of. U-235 has a very long half life, so there should not be a big problem with radioactive contamination.”
–
Just so we are on the same page here.
One U235 an inconsequential problem.
Whenit breaks down it can lead to a long or very short cascade resulting in a larger number of future radiation events.
Order of magnitude and the amount of uranium poses a major risk of contamination.
See Chernobyl
See where and how long the so called spent products in fuel rods have to be stored in America
See the problems Japan had with contaminated waste water post Tsunami.
Concentrated Uranium dispersed in a bombing raid is a major, major issue for the country where such waste would reside covered over by earth fir safety for perpetuity.
I don’t think it should be glossed ove
SteveF
angech,
“What Mike M said. Uranium (235 or 238) is so slow in decay that it presents no (zero, none) radiation risk compared to plutonium (or Heaven forbid) a nuclear weapon.”
U-235 is enriched from natural uranium, so no fission products to speak of. U-235 has a very long half life, so there should not be a big problem with radioactive contamination.
Mike M “U-235 is enriched from natural uranium, so no fission products to speak of. U-235 has a very long half life, so there should not be a big problem with radioactive contamination.”
–
Just so we are on the same page here.
One U235 atom is an inconsequential problem.
Whenit breaks down it can lead to a long or very short cascade resulting in a larger number of future radiation events.
Order of magnitude and the amount of uranium poses a major risk of contamination.
See Chernobyl
See where and how long the so called spent products in fuel rods have to be stored in America
See the problems Japan had with contaminated waste water post Tsunami.
Concentrated Uranium dispersed in a bombing raid is a major, major issue for the country where such waste would reside covered over by earth fir safety for perpetuity.
I don’t think it should be glossed over
angech,
You are confusing uranium, which is not very radioactive, with fission products, which are millions of times more radioactive. The major dangers of nuclear waste are due to the fission products.
USAF KC-135 Stratotankers heading en masse Eastward across the Atlantic ocean. At one point today there were 21 in the air at the same time. At 2AM Florida time, there were still 6 aloft.
image:
https://x.com/rklier21/status/1934488685396808160?s=61&t=7w4bCW3a8ve2DqoeniQatQ
They are Stopping at bases in Europe, final destination unknown.
I wonder if they could be ferrying warbirds that have their transponders turned off.
A handful may be heading to the NATO Atlantic Trident 25 exercise held in Finland from June 16 to 27, 2025, but I suspect the main body is going to wind up in the Middle East.
Conspiracy theoryā¦
This may be a threat to Iran that the US is preparing to launch a long rage air attack i.e. Saber rattling.
or maybe we are going to war.
Thanks Mike
7AM Florida time and there are again 6 KC-135 tankers inthe air over Europe. 3 of these and some heavy lift USAF assets are in a conga line that seem tobe headed to the Middle East.
Screenshot:
https://x.com/rklier21/status/1934570956149641350?s=61
More OSINT chatter that the tankers are feeding flocks of fighters and bombers with their transponders turned off. This is speculation in my opinion. I should have video confirmation by now if this were true.
We need a pentagon rate of incoming pizza check
The US may choose to take out the underground facilities in Iran. A series of B-2 bombers. IMO it is too late to do this and get the desired result. Stopping Iran was a ten years ago problem. We might be able to take out to the facility but then what?
WSJ: A Battered Iran Signals It Wants to De-Escalate Hostilities With Israel and Negotiate
Messages passed by Tehran through intermediaries seek a return to talks if the U.S. stays out of the fight
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/a-battered-iran-signals-it-wants-to-de-escalate-hostilities-with-israel-and-negotiate-9feab4ae?st=6PPKtv&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
My guess is this is just stalling for time, or maybe they are reading Russell’s posts, ha ha. They want to detonate a small nuke to show everyone they are over the finish line. Fait accompli.
From the looks of the map, there are no USAF aircraft in the air over the the Middle East, western Pacific the Indian Ocean, the Red Sea, the Persian Gulf, the Mediterranean Sea, Japan, or Korea. Over half of the globe all USAF assets are flying dark. In fact, there are only two USAF aircraft with a transponders on over Europe. I have never seen anything like this.
Image of USAF planes aloft at12:36 Florida time:
https://x.com/rklier21/status/1934651012096348545?s=61
From the looks of the map, there are no USAF aircraft in the air over the the Middle East, western Pacific the Indian Ocean, the Red Sea, the Persian Gulf, the Mediterranean Sea, Japan, or Korea. We know they are flying , we just canāt see them. Over half of the globe all USAF assets are flying dark. In fact, there are only five USAF aircraft with a transponders on over Europe. I have never seen anything like this.
Image of USAF planes aloft at12:36 Florida time:
https://x.com/rklier21/status/1934652346920812677?s=61
Tom,
It’s not too late while the Israelis are still alive. I mean, I’m certain they aren’t going to shrug and say, ‘oh well. We should have fixed this a decade ago. Nothing for it now, we might as well go to our graves.’
If they have to mow the grass in Iran every two weeks, or even every two days, it beats getting nuked IMO.
Iran doesn’t actually want to negotiate now. They want the U.S. to not to bomb the holy hell out of their bunker sites using B2s and GBU-57’s, or whatever bunker busters they deem appropriate.
It might work though, Trump seems to be something of a sucker for the idea that negotiations will get him somewhere. He really seems to want to believe that’ll happen.
Trump would certainly rather talk than fight, but I don’t know that he is a sucker for negotiations. He gave the Iranians 60 days to negotiate, then on day 61 the Israelis struck, apparently with Trump’s blessing.
Iran’s Fordrow facility is supposedly under a half mile of mountain. I doubt anything can destroy that, other than an inside job. But maybe the access tunnels can be taken out.
Mark Bofill,
“We should have fixed this a decade ago.”
I think we should have fixed this when the Shah fled Iran…… the ‘Islamic Republic’ is not, and has never been, a legitimate government. I do not know if there are enough people in Iran who have the sense to form a reasonable secular government. If not, then the country will descend into the abyss of 5th century lunacy, as has already happened once. Toss the homosexuals to their deaths from rooftops….. perfect Islam.
I fear for any rational Iranian.
Mike M,
I think it far more likely that there will be some kind of ground assault to eliminate this enrichment facility.
The mullahs are in retreat, so an assault on the underground enrichment site is more likely now than later.
“President Trump will return to Washington tonight so he can attend to many important matters,ā
Hmmmmm …
SteveF,
I suppose that a commando raid on Fordrow may well be a possibility.
Times change.
Kennedy would have launched nuclear weapons at Moscow over the Cuba crisis.
Nowadays options would be on a more leisurely we will just bomb one of your cities, you bomb one ours.
–
America has a bomb that can take out mountains.
Downside is Iran will have a uranium rich mine site to mine for and refine uranium for years to come.
–
Bombing Tehran will unify the population and not get rid of the risk.
–
Other problem is Iran shipping its refined uranium to Pakistan or other terrorist states.
Australia could do with the rods for a putative nuclear energy program?
–
Predict a bomb to the mountain in 24 hours oil to surge and bank stocks down for a week.
-Russell, do you have a direct line to Hegseth?
A USAF āNuke Snifferā Aircraft was seen flying a mission near its home base in Omaha. It monitors the air for radiation. I Think this is probably a shakedown cruise and baseline monitoring. But the US only has three of these planes and they may be getting them ready for deployment after a MOAB Bunker Buster takes out the underground uranium enrichment facility.
[Or maybe they’re just trying to scare the Iranians]
An example of the chatter:
ā WC-135R Constant Phoenix has just taken off from Omaha, home of U.S. Strategic Command, and is now flying unusual orbits over the northern U.S. This is not routine. The Constant Phoenix is used to detect nuclear detonations and track radioactive fallout in the atmosphere. It only flies under serious circumstancesālike a nuclear test, reactor breach, or suspected atomic strike.ā
MOREā¦..
https://x.com/DD_Geopolitics/status/1934736907281523194
angech, your comment:
āRussell, do you have a direct line to Hegseth?ā
Well we both have been known to spend too much time in barsā¦.. So maybe.
Another odd phenomenon I noticed today is that there is a regular stream of USAF heavy lift aircraft like the Boeing C-17A Globemaster III heading up the East coast, then over Nova Scotia and then disappearing by turning off their transponders.
There are seven aircraft in the pipeline at 12 midnight Florida time.
Screenshot:
https://x.com/rklier21/status/1934826574848639463
Background:
āThe Boeing C-17A Globemaster III is a large, heavy military transport aircraft known for its strategic and tactical airlift capabilities. It can carry troops, cargo, and equipment to various locations, including remote or austere airfields.ā
As reported, the USS Nimitz carrier strike group was rerouted from the South China Sea to the Middle East where it will join the USS Carl Vinson carrier strike group.
At 12 midnight Florida time it was passing through the Malacca Strait, off the coast of Malaysia. I have conflicting information on ETA, from one to three weeks from now.
Screenshot:
https://x.com/rklier21/status/1934833947222868295
Trump posted some ominous tweets yesterday:
“Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran”
https://x.com/justinamash/status/1934754120583262229
“Stay tuned”
https://x.com/MAGAVoice/status/1934843410281845138
Well we both have been known to spend too much time in barsā¦.. So maybe.
I must not be hanging out at the right bars… š
āIran’s bad week is about to become a whole lot worseā
I now have visual confirmation that at least some of the Stratotankers that we have seen heading towards the Middle East are being used to ferry USAF warbirds.
The normally reliable āOSINTtechnicalā posted this an hour ago:
āThe USAF aerial refueling tankers headed to the Middle East today were not alone.
Seen here hauling 4 USAF F-35 Lightning stealth fighters southbound over the UKā:
https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1934952008790032785
To confirm, I checked Flightradar24 and saw this:
USAF KC-135 Tankers heading toward the Middle East, flight track today at 9:30 am:
https://x.com/rklier21/status/1934966195435770252
USAF F-15 over southern England, flight track today at 9:30 am:
https://x.com/rklier21/status/1934966117023228403
It appears that the USAF is in the process of staging a large force of our frontline aircraft for a strike on Iran.
Russell,
Even if the US is preparing to strike Iran, that does not mean that we are planning to strike Iran. The preparations might be to ensure that we are in a position to strike Iran should they do something that merits such a response. That will also act to deter Iran from taking such actions.
Or maybe we are about to take out the Fordrow facility. I am OK with it either way.
If Trump thinks Iran is going to back down on nuclear enrichment after Iran publicly saying the opposite and operating as a religious fundamentalist regime then he is very likely wrong.
However I don’t have any problem with giving Iran the full opportunity to do so before the US attempts to take out Fordow by force, or just does maximal saber rattling. Iran should be given a * private * short term ultimatum to give up the nuclear program or force will be used, and if Iran responds against US assets in the region their entire energy sector will be targeted.
After that happens … should Trump attack? Meh. I don’t want a US war with Iran but I am also pretty convinced the next nuke used in anger will explode in Israel. If I’m Israel I’m taking out the nukes whatever the cost but I’m not Israel. If the Middle East starts nuking each other later, well, what else is new over there? It would be a service to humanity for the US to take out Iran’s nukes but I’m tired of being the world police, people have to fight their own fights.
Bottom line is we should continue to support Israel doing the dirty work but stay out of a direct conflict. The compromise position is to sell Israel a few B-2’s. Teach a man to fish …
At 10:30 AM today there were at least 10 USAF tankers in route to the Middle East from Europe.
Flight track image:
https://x.com/rklier21/status/1934980787700695274?s=61&t=7w4bCW3a8ve2DqoeniQatQ
We are using both KC ā135t Stratotanker and KC ā46a Pegasus aircraft for this mission. If each tanker is towing 4 to 5 warbirds, this is a significant armada in itself.
Musingsā¦
The fact that the USAF and the USN are transferring assets to the Middle East without much concealment says to me that there is a saber rattling aspect to this mission. I think the administration is still hoping that the Iranians have a āCome to Jesusā moment and decide to settle through negotiations.
Mike,
I agree with both points you made.
Tom, your post:
ā The compromise position is to sell Israel a few B-2ās. Teach a man to fish ā¦ā
If we havenāt already done this, itās too late to do it now. The B-2s are extremely complex aircraft and require significant amount of ground equipment to maintain. My guess is it would take at least six months of preparation, and a steep learning, curve to be ready to drop a bunker buster from a B-2, even for the Israelis.
“I think the administration is still hoping that the Iranians have a āCome to Jesusā moment…”
Perhaps ‘Come to Muhammed’ moment ?
Harold,
“Perhaps āCome to Muhammedā moment ?”
Perfect!
At noon today, some of the USAF tankers are making a U-turn over the central Mediterranean Sea and heading back. I assume this is the point that the war birds that they were towing can make it to their final destination without refueling. Some of the other tankers are continuing towards the SE Mediterranean Sea.
Screenshot of the track:
https://x.com/rklier21/status/1935001039960527165
Tom,
I get what you’re saying. Just remember though, Israel isn’t the only target, just the first. They’re ‘little Satan’, but that still leaves us. The Iranians will get around to us sooner or later if left unchecked. In twenty years people will be saying ‘hmm, the time to take care of this problem was twenty years ago’, perhaps.
post from Trump, a few minutes ago:
ā UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!ā
I think there is quite a bit of PSYOPS taking place
https://x.com/truthtrumpposts/status/1935012453709996281?s=61&t=7w4bCW3a8ve2DqoeniQatQ
As I said earlier, some of the tankers were discharging their fledglings over the central Mediterranean Sea then turning back and heading toward Southern England. I have no clue as to the final destination of the warbirds they were escorting. The rest of the tankers continued and overflew Egypt before flying over the Red Sea. These went dark for a time and then reappeared over Egypt, heading back toward Ramstein AFB in Germany. I assume their fledglings headed out over Saudi Arabia.
Flight track:
https://x.com/rklier21/status/1935016592946929802?s=61&t=7w4bCW3a8ve2DqoeniQatQ
Many countries in the Middle East appear to be cooperating and allowing over-flight of their territory by warplanes of the US and Israel. Jordan, Syria, Egypt and Saudi Arabia to name a few. Additionally, I have read no condemnations of Israel by these neighbors.
Will the Iranian regime blink? I am starting to doubt they will; it seems their only reason for the regime to exist is to destroy Israel, so they will not stop their nuclear weapons program.
Multiple reports suggest Trump has stopped the Israelis from targeting the mullahs who control Iran, but I doubt that will continue for very long. The Israelis have apparently developed enough on-the-ground intelligence assets to accurately target individuals in the Iranian leadership.
Trump posted a threat to Iranās leader today:
“We know exactly where the so-called āSupreme Leaderā is hiding. He is an easy target, but is safe there – We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now. But we donāt want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
https://x.com/lindseygrahamsc/status/1935074860637765760?s=61
The results of Trumpās threat of attacking Tehran has resulted in massive traffic jams with people trying to get out of town.
Right. Now may be late IMO but even later is … later. There is definitely some gray area and judgment here on striking Iran. We let the Norks get a nuke though so Iran sees precedent.
Iran may pacify itself eventually. You can only stay antagonistic and fundamentalist for so long, it has a lot of downsides. It will be interesting to see what happens when Komeni dies which should happen pretty soon, one way or the other.
If Iran attacks US assets in the region, then the mullah may very well be gone. He will be made a martyr but I doubt he will be missed by many.
Tom,
All good points, true. It’s hard to predict the future.
Tom Scharf,
“He will be made a martyr but I doubt he will be missed by many.”
Yes, but think of all the virgins. š
Well… all this makes me nervous. Mind you, not a pool of sweat because there is nothing I can do one way or the other. Hoping for the best and not the worst.
What Ireally like about the arrest this morning is that 2/3 of the arresting ICE guys looked like tough Mexican immigrant thugs!
Probably helps them get close to suspects.
Lucia, your post:
āHoping for the best and not the worst.ā
Iām not sure there is a best outcome in this situation, only different shades of worst.
I agree with Trump that Iran must not become a state with nuclear weapons. Given that premise only a capitulation by Iranās hard line mullahs solves it without US military action.
Without a mullah capitulation, I only see outcomes ranging from bad to catastrophic whether we take action or not.
The Israelis are pretty amazing. Maybe they can finish off the Iranian nuclear program on their own. If not, I would rather see limited US involvement, such as dropping bunker busters, rather than leaving the job half done.
Many point to Iraq and Afghanistan as reasons to stay on the sidelines. And they might have a point if the old foreign policy establishment were running things. But I am quite confident that Trump is not going to invade Iran, or try to occupy the place, or try to install a government we like. He is even very reluctant to decapitate their theocracy. That makes sense given the mess that resulted in Libya.
Let the Iranians run their own affairs, as long as they don’t have nukes.
As I see it, the issue with Iranian nukes is more than just a matter of proliferation. Their hatred for Israel seems to be more than mere prejudice. As far as I can tell, it is somehow theological. That is the sort of thing that might lead them to a first strike that makes little or no strategic sense. Compared to Iran, the North Koreans are sane and responsible.
Maybe the Israelis are bamboozling us. I wonder what proof we have that they canāt take out the critical underground facilities without us dropping a bunker buster bomb. Perhaps there is a thermal exhaust port that leads directly to the reactor system, like on the Death Star.
I find it unlikely that the Israelis do not have a Plan B. It certainly would be to their advantage for us to get drawn into the conflict in alliance with them.
Thinking about Luciaās worst case scenarioā¦.
Might that be a large release of radioactive dust that gets spread over a vast area and impacts a great number of civilians? I donāt know enough about the nuclear bomb making process to know if that is a possible scenario.
And conspiracy theoryā¦.. The Iranians might have booby trapped something to have the above scenario happen to trigger worldwide condemnation of the United States.
Overnight, I have watched sporadic flights of USAF Boeing C-17a Globemaster III heavy lift transport aircraft flying from Aviano Air Base in northeastern Italy to Prince Sultan Air Base in central Saudi Arabia. I suspect some of the warplanes being ferried in also landed here. It looks like the Saudiās are supporting the US- Israeli efforts to destroy Iranās nuclear weapons industry.
The major nuclear storage bunker Fordow is located in Qom Iran and the distance from Prince Sultan Air Base is about 1,500 km.
Air Tracks:
https://x.com/rklier21/status/1935297546022437269?s=61&t=7w4bCW3a8ve2DqoeniQatQ
https://x.com/rklier21/status/1935297461070827539?s=61&t=7w4bCW3a8ve2DqoeniQatQ
Also, there are currently three USAF Stratotankers over Europe that are headed Southeast. I suspect they are ferrying more warplanes into harmās way. I will check on these later.
Tracks of all USAF KC-135 tankers in the air over Europe:
https://x.com/rklier21/status/1935303905430081808?s=61&t=7w4bCW3a8ve2DqoeniQatQ
WOKE Jesus video, from the Bee, hilarious:
https://x.com/thebabylonbee/status/1935109402744484096?s=61&t=7w4bCW3a8ve2DqoeniQatQ
Russell Klier wrote: “Might that be a large release of radioactive dust that gets spread over a vast area and impacts a great number of civilians?”
Uranium is not that big a deal, although the fear mongers will make a big deal out of it. Fission products in spent fuel would be a much bigger issue. But Iran does not reprocess fuel from their reactor, so I see no reason why the spent fuel would have a place in their weapons program.
Even a nuke or a big fire would not spread much of the radioactivity outside of Iran. We used to do above ground testing and did not contaminate “vast areas”, at least not vast compared to Iran. The radioactivity from Chernobyl mostly just impacted the area near Chernobyl. As I recall, there were a hundred or so excess cases of thyroid cancer, but that is highly treatable.
It would make no sense for the Iranians to booby trap their nuclear sites since they would be the victims of the booby trap.
Is there some reason why we should worry about being “drawn in” to the Israel-Iran conflict? We are already pretty deeply in it. Comparing a strike on Iran to the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan looks to me like a straw man argument.
Other than the economic impact of having a significant producer of petruelum taken off line for the indefinite future, and impact which at this point is probably unknowable, It looks like the balance of benefit to putting Iran out of the Nuke business is entirely to our favor and maybe the world’s as well.
It’s difficult to muster any sympathy for the governement of a country whose stated policy is to destroy another one.
And Steve F, do you really think Khomeni wouldn’t be laughed out of heaven by the virgins?
Israel has nukes, exactly how many and what kinds is unknown. They can use a tactical nuke on the underground bunker if they choose to.
If they can’t get the US to finish the job then they face very difficult and risky decisions.
Not to be repetitive but Iran knows how to enrich uranium and build centrifuges. If you take out an automobile manufacturing plant you haven’t prevented cars from being built forever once the knowledge is in place.
If Iran has the will they will get a nuke, you have to convince them the cost is too high. Not gonna happen with the mullahs in charge, not to mention that Israel dropping bombs on them and the US saber rattling are reasons to build nukes, not stop building them.
I don’t see this ending satisfactorily in the near term for Team USA in this case. Sh** happens. My prediction is Iran races to completion and detonates a nuke within two years.
Getting “drawn in” to the conflict is totally counter to the “America first” agenda. A lot of people are concerned that Israel gets way too much help already and that this is their problem to deal with. To start attacking Iran on their behalf would be a betrayal.
We strike Iran … Iran attacks regional US bases … we attack Iran’s energy infrastructure … Israel takes out the Ayatollah … The Mullahs take out Trump … China / Russia no longer have access to cheap Iranian oil … Russia and China send advanced weapons to Iran … The Navy gets sloppy and loses a carrier in the Persian Gulf to a Russian hypersonic missile … Iraq joins the “war on Islam” … China uses the distraction to attack Taiwan … Iran / Iraq send a million man land army to Israel … Dirty nukes go off in the US and Israel …
This is low probability but it is not zero probability. There isn’t a simple answer.
The SC decision on nationwide injunctions should be coming pretty soon. I expect this chaos to be brought under control except I don’t know how they can do it without leaving loopholes.
Immigration law left a loophole of asylum, we saw how that worked out.
DaveJR,
Keeping Iran from getting nukes is certainly not “totally counter to the America First agenda”. It is a matter of protecting America, i.e. the “Great Satan” (according to the ayatollah). Trump has been consistent for at least a decade that Iran must not be allowed to get nukes.
Stopping Iran from getting nukes would be something that Trump does on behalf of America. The fact that it would also benefit Israel is incidental. It would not be a betrayal of anything.
Tom Scharf wrote: “This is low probability but it is not zero probability.”
Which makes the speculative possible consequences pretty much irrelevant, since nothing is without risk.
Iran attacking US bases and seeking to take out Trump are things they are doing anyway. There might be good reasons to not destroy Iran’s oil infrastructure, but that decision would be independent of taking out their nuclear program.
MikeM: “Keeping Iran from getting nukes is certainly not ātotally counter to the America First agendaā. It is a matter of protecting America, i.e. the āGreat Satanā
Okay, not totally, but I don’t think you would convince people this is a good idea. It harks back to the justifications taken to attack Iraq. It is clearly far more beneficial for Israel and this is more central to the argument. People were serious about the “No more wars” thing. Houthi rebel pirates are one thing. Attacking a state is another level entirely.
DaveJR wrote: “It harks back to the justifications taken to attack Iraq.”
That is a straw man. Iraq was not developing nuclear weapons; Iran is developing such weapons and they are doing so for offensive purposes. It is conceivable that Iran would give nukes to their terrorist allies. We did not just take out weapons facilities in Iraq. We invaded, occupied, and tried to run the place. There are only superficial similarities between the two cases.
———
DaveJR wrote: “It is clearly far more beneficial for Israel”.
Irrelevant. The fact that an action might benefit Israel should not prevent us from taking an action that will benefit us.
So these are fair questions. Why should we fear a nuclear Iran when we already face a nuclear China? Maybe I am motivated by concern for Israel, I guess I should own that.
Why exactly has Iran been this thorn in our asses for the past 50 years but not Saudi Arabia or Turkey or Egypt? I was just a kid, but I am under the impression Iran wasn’t a problem for us when a Shah ruled there.
We set out with a stupid program to form liberal western style democracies in the Middle East, and that was stupid, and it never had the slightest chance of working, and indeed it didn’t work. I don’t think this proves that regime change can’t get us to a better situation, one we could live with. I don’t actually know how to get there from here though, and I doubt anybody really does.
Shrug.
Oh.
Why should we fear a nuclear Iran when we already face a nuclear China?
Maybe we shouldn’t.
Why exactly has Iran been this thorn in our asses for the past 50 years but not Saudi Arabia or Turkey or Egypt?
Because of the regime in charge in Iran.
Sorry.
North Korea has been relatively well behaved since they got nukes, perhaps they felt more comfortable that they wouldn’t be invaded. This was always irrational as what do we want to achieve by invading North Korea? It doesn’t mean they didn’t believe that though anyway due to that Korean war bit of history.
Pakistan has tons of radicals but the nukes have been kept silent, so far.
Iran is different, the current regime has a decades long habit of spreading terror and regional instability and an overt religious declaration to eliminate Israel.
Although everyone dumps on the Iraq War it did fulfill a primary objective to end Saddam’s thuggish rule and regional wars, Iran / Iraq, Kuwait, scud missile attacks on Israel. However this “win” just allowed Iran to jump in and fill the Middle East thug of the week momentary vacuum.
If the Iran regime turn overs then there will just be another effective tribal leader jump in on the opportunity with more of the same. Turkey? Saudi Arabia? At least Afghanistan just sits around and waits for somebody to invade them every decade instead of reaching out to terrify their neighbors.
The Middle East is just not solvable.
mark,
Iran per se is not the problem. The problem is the ayatollahs and the policies they advocate. The Shah was a big friend of the US. The Brits put him in power (deposing his dad) during WW2 and we put him back on his throne circa 1950. We sold him all sorts of advanced military equipment and regarded him as bulwark against both the Arabs and Soviets.
A nuclear Iran is a much bigger danger than a nuclear China. They might actually launch an offensive first strike. Even the Norks aren’t that crazy.
Egypt used to be a big thorn in our side and enemy #1 of the Israeli’s. Then Sadat decided to take a different path. The Saudi’s used to be a big thorn in our side, leading the 1973 oil embargo and providing all the 9/11 hijackers. They have been moving away from that under the present de facto ruler. It is not the countries that matter, it is the leadership that matters.
We should be concerned about Israel. They are the only Western democracy in the Mideast. We should not use our military in a vain attempt to create liberal democracies, but neither should we abandon such countries. Even setting that aside, a nuclear genocide of the Israeli’s might be a very destabilizing event.
I think that intervention should be no more than what is absolutely necessary. That would mean destroying Iran’s nuclear program. Period. Nothing more than that. It is up to the Iranians to decide if they want regime change.
Thanks gents.
Tom
I donāt see this ending satisfactorily in the near term for Team USA in this case. Sh** happens. My prediction is Iran races to completion and detonates a nuke within two years.
–
I doubt they would do a test run either if they do.
Starship static test ended with a gigantic KABOOMā¦
Video:
https://x.com/nasaspaceflight/status/1935548909805601020?s=61&t=7w4bCW3a8ve2DqoeniQatQ
New motto might be fail fast and BIGLY
The most telling news item of the day:
āBoth Papa John’s and Little Ceasers just outside of CENTCOM at MacDill Airforce Base (Tampa) are reporting elevated levels of activity.ā As of about 9:42pm ET
https://x.com/penpizzareport/status/1935513880425337053?s=61&t=7w4bCW3a8ve2DqoeniQatQ
The USN has made a couple strategic moves:
āThe Navyās newest aircraft carrier, USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78), and its strike group will deploy to Europe next week, putting it in close proximity to the current Iran-Israel conflict.
Three US carriers will now be operating in the area.ā
https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1935359868279329125?s=61&t=7w4bCW3a8ve2DqoeniQatQ
Also:
āBREAKING: U.S. Navy warships pulled from Bahrain port ā home of the 5th Fleet.ā
https://x.com/conflictmatrix/status/1935535214840746403?s=61&t=7w4bCW3a8ve2DqoeniQatQ
āSatellite imagery showed that all forward-deployed U.S. Navy vessels have left port in the Middle Eastern country of Bahrainā
https://www.newsweek.com/satellite-images-show-us-navy-vessels-deploy-possible-iran-attack-looms-2087111
Meanwhile, the USAF has gone quiet in country except for a stream of C-17s carrying supplies to central Saudi Arabia. At 12 midnight there were five C-17ās heading northeast along the East Coast of United States, and six C7ās in the air heading southeast between Europe and Saudi Arabia. Itās a modern day equivalent of the Red Ball Express.
https://x.com/rklier21/status/1935557885796229556?s=61&t=7w4bCW3a8ve2DqoeniQatQ
https://x.com/rklier21/status/1935550197888692731?s=61&t=7w4bCW3a8ve2DqoeniQatQ
If China’s looking for a moment to snatch up Taiwan, that moment might be fast approaching.
Just as I suggested yesterday, the Israelis have a Plan B:
āIsrael informed the US that if they are not able to take out Iran’s Fordo nuclear facility with bunker-busting bombs, they may “do it with humans.”
https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1935472485773738339?s=61&t=7w4bCW3a8ve2DqoeniQatQ
mark bofill,
“If Chinaās looking for a moment to snatch up Taiwan, that moment might be fast approaching.”
Sadly true. China controlling TSMC’s production would put a big hurt on the whole world…. at least until several large fabs could be build outside Taiwan. Even on a crash basis it would be a couple of years to replace TSMC’s capacity.
Oddly enough, Islam seems remarkably resistant to moderation. Even in places like Turkey, where Ataturk replaced religious rule with moderate secular rule, the majority of the population remained opposed and have elected officials dedicated to returning Turkey to a strictly religious society.
The de facto king of Saudi Arabia is sitting on a powder keg of religious extremists. He is quite willing to murder people to discourage dissent, but even that may not be enough. He needs to be careful.
Steve,
Islam is really interesting that way. It’s a great counterweight for me when I start thinking ‘hmm, philosophy needs some grounding in theology to counter nihilism and postmodern problems’. It reminds me that the middle ground between secular societal degradation and religious dark ages is a lot more narrow and precarious than I like to think it is. Maybe that middle ground doesn’t even exist in spots.
Steve: “Oddly enough, Islam seems remarkably resistant to moderation.”
It was created that way. “Moderates” will always fall to the “extremists” because they are more closely adhering to what Islam stands for. They only need to start quoting scripture and providing examples and the moderate position falls apart.
“The Israeli military estimates it has destroyed two-thirds of Iranās missile launchers over the first seven days of the conflict”
I suspect this is a use it and lose it thing. The US can certainly detect Iran launches from space and likely can then track the launchers wherever they go after that. Israel then takes them out.
It is unclear what level of high resolution “rewind” our satellite infrastructure has that would also allow us to determine where the launchers started at. I think they might have some decent level because Israel seems rather effective at taking out these launchers and mobile launchers are a hard problem and Iran’s missile cadence is way down. Fighting a war is hard if the Eye of Sauron is staring at you constantly.
Solid fueled rockets don’t need much though, more or less a big truck to stand them upright and some support stuff. It can be done pretty quickly. It’s still a rather specialized truck though.
Iran has other long range missiles that are liquid fueled that require a lot more work to setup and fire. It takes hours and they would be very vulnerable.
It doesn’t look like Israel has reached much of eastern Iran so missiles fired from there might be safer, but it is farther from Israel and might be out of range of some missiles.
Fun fact: Khamenei has not left Iran since 1989 except one trip to Libya. Very odd.
A hermit with nukes. Yeah!
Major KABOOM when SpaceX Starship was undergoing a static test.
NSF video:
https://x.com/nasaspaceflight/status/1935548909805601020?s=61&t=7w4bCW3a8ve2DqoeniQatQ
Perhaps SpaceX should change its motto from “fail fast, learn fast” to “fail fast, fail big”
SpaceX sanitizes it thus:
āOn Wednesday, June 18 at approximately 11 p.m. CT, the Starship preparing for the tenth flight test experienced a major anomaly while on a test stand at Starbase. A safety clear area around the site was maintained throughout the operation and all personnel are safe and accounted for. ā
I doubt that Taiwan is in any immediate danger. As I understand it, China does not have much in the way of landing ships; nothing close to what would be needed to launch an amphibious invasion.
Xi has ordered the military to prepare for an invasion of Taiwan by something like 2028 or 2029. That would require building a lot of landing ships, which no doubt China is capable of.
It makes sense that Khamenei never leaves Iran. Where would he go? Iran is pretty much diplomatically isolated, so he would likely be at risk anywhere outside of Iran. And leaving would create an opportunity for anybody who might want to try and seize power.
Mike,
I don’t know. Here’s Hegseth on the matter a few weeks back:
Shrug
In the past 24 hours, I have seen a couple C-17 heavy lift aircraft and one KC-135 tanker approaching Jordan in the Middle East. Chatter is that a flight of F-22 Raptor stealth fighters have been moved into position at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, Jordan. I have no confirmation of this so consider it preliminary at this time.
Something definitely is happening with the USAF and Jordan.
mark,
When has a Secretary of Defense said “No worries, we don’t need any more resources”? “Imminent” is the sort of word that gets used when you don’t want people to just kick the can down the road. With preparations for defense, if you wait for a threat to be imminent, it is probably too late.
If China is preparing to invade Taiwan in a few years, then we and our East Asian allies need to be preparing for that now.
A very long piece in the NYT about the adolescent trans healthcare case recently decided by the SC
How the Transgender Rights Movement Bet on the Supreme Court and Lost
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/19/magazine/scotus-transgender-care-tennessee-skrmetti.html
What is most striking about this piece is how the medical establishment got way out over their skis and started repeating activist talking points without sufficient evidence to backup their case. By the time the case made it to the SC they had to reverse many absolutist stances.
Another reason to believe the great philosopher George Carlin:
“People are wonderful. I love individuals. I hate groups of people. I hate a group of people with a ‘common purpose’.”
This didn’t occur to me for quite a while. We don’t often think about first strike nuclear weapon use, but Israel might be thinking about it. It’s not inconceivable to me that they might have B61 mod 11 nuclear bunker busters or something equivalent. They have planes capable of delivering these.
It might not be that they are seeking U.S. involvement because they are unable to take care of the problem themselves. It might be that they are seeking U.S. involvement because they are unable to take care of the problem themselves without resorting to a nuclear first strike.
Something to think about.
We don’t let children drive cars, or play with guns. We don’t let them drink alcohol, or vote. Could it be that children do not have the capacity to make very important decisions? Or is it that society just hates children and wants to make them miserable? I suggest it is the former.
mark bofill,
I very much doubt Israel will use a nuclear weapon to destroy an enrichment site. I think a ground assault would be far more likely, with overwhelming air power eliminating Iranian ground forces that try to defend the site. Cut power, air flow, and water, and those inside wouldn’t last long.
Steve,
That’d seem more likely, yes. Less volatile geopolitically as well. Israel probably ought to avoid using nukes on Muslims if there’s any avoiding it.
mark bofill wrote: “It might be that they are seeking U.S. involvement because they are unable to take care of the problem themselves without resorting to a nuclear first strike.”
And if Israel is willing to use a nuke as a last resort, that would be a reason for the US to take out Fordow for them.
Mike M,
Iran does have a reactor that is suitable for weapons-grade plutonium production: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/IR-40
They had agreed to stop operating this reactor, but never did. Israel just bombed the complex (3rd time in 10 years?)
Another squadron of USAF warbirds are in flight to the Middle East. At 8 AM, Florida time, three KC-135 Stratotankers were over the middle of the Mediterranean Sea. I assume they are towing 12 to 15 fighters. This flight originated at MorĆ³n Air Base, Spain. Destination, Unknown.
Track screenshot:
https://x.com/rklier21/status/1936030957800128608?s=61&t=7w4bCW3a8ve2DqoeniQatQ
In addition, the airborne Red Ball Express keeps rolling along. Currently there are eleven C-17 heavy lift aircraft in the pipeline between Europe and the Middle East.
Track screenshot;
https://x.com/rklier21/status/1936033895679427033?s=61&t=7w4bCW3a8ve2DqoeniQatQ
Something is different this time around. None of the usual suspects are condemning the United States and Israel for their campaign against Iran. All of the Arab states and Egypt, Turkey, Lebanon, Syria, seem to be OK with whatās going on. I havenāt even heard anything from Hamas, but I havenāt been looking. A number of the Arab states are even cooperating, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Bahrain, that I know of.
Yeah, I haven’t heard a single country advocate for Iran’s nuclear ambitions. It’s bad news for everyone but Iran. The other Arab states are going to want their own nukes or an ironclad guarantee of a US supplied nuclear umbrella. Even then they would have big questions on the reliability of US guarantees, the US is pretty feckless with alliances in the Middle East. All the Arab states are frenemies.
It’s not just crazy Iran with nukes, it’s the knock-on effects.
I would say the MOP GBU-57 is experimental. You can imagine that even if you can dig that deep in the mountain with multiple hits right on top of each other then you need to detonate at the right depth which seems dicey.
However if you do manage to detonate at the right depth in an enclosed tunnel then the result should be rather … effective.
It still seems to me that commando raid might be the best way to make sure and the hard part here is taking and holding the area around the mountain. Then you would need to cut through a bunch of blast doors and so forth. I think this would take days at a minimum and require some specialized heavy equipment to be ferried in. Iran could just collapse the tunnel entrances and dig them out later.
Israel isn’t new to daring raids and risky adventures. I’d say use a commando raid. Blast a hole with some 2K bombs, then drop in a tactical nuke and blow it up. Then deny, deny, deny, you used a nuke. All that radiation is from the facility! They can fingerprint the nuke residue though.
Tom Scharf,
The centrifuge halls are estimated to be 80-90 meters below surface level. The GBU -57 is estimated to have a penetration depth of “up to 60 meters”, so it would likely take two or more direct hits on the same spot to reach the centrifuge halls. (Call Tom Cruise to fly the mission. š )
I believe the GBU-57 has a “void sensing” fuse, so depth of the detonation should not be an issue.
An alternative would be to collapse the four access tunnels in multiple places, destroy the service lines (electricity, water, air, communications) and destroy the outside service building…. then promise to repeat as often as needed to keep the facility non-operational. Being trapped inside would suck, so you might want to give them time to evacuate the facility.
GBU-57 penetration seems to be somewhat disputed and depends on material. So hitting Fordow depends on what is above the facility. It might be that they just tunneled into solid rock, which I think would make it much more vulnerable.
As I understand it, the integrity of a cavern in rock is very much dependent on the integrity of the rock above it. The bunker buster can penetrate some distance into the rock. When it explodes, it will fracture the rock; that will extend deeper than the point at which the bomb explodes. So even if the bomb does not reach the cavern, it might cause the cavern to collapse.
Of course, the technical details needed to assess the chance of success are not available to very many people.
Trump has said that we might hit Fordow. I think that is the only warning the Iranians will get.
It’s not like Iran doesn’t see this coming. I don’t know how much they can move out and distribute. There’s a lot more ways this doesn’t set Iran back years with proper planning than does IMO. I think the simplified narrative of “end the nuke development by force” is pretty hard if Iran is competent.
I don’t think Iran will back down at this stage due to the usual pride and ego and I think it is really hard to delay the program for years with a couple weeks of bombing. They already have a lot of highly enriched uranium, not quite weapons grade. The regime needs to be compelled to stop by their own decision but they are too fundamentalist.
Someone else commented somewhere you can say you want Israel wiped off the map or you can say you want to develop nukes but you cannot say both at the same time.
Israel has some really hard options in the near future. If it is truly existential (it probably is) then they need to take out the Ayatollah and hope for something better. Ugh.
“they need to take out the Ayatollah and hope for something better”
The chance of something much better seems slim. OTOH, there is not a lot of down-side…. whatever comes after the Ayatollah is not likely to be much worse…… constant promises of “death to Israel” by the Ayatollah sets a pretty low bar.
The thing that puzzles me is that there is all this angst about nuclear threat from countries which have never tested one. And missile delvered?
True, they’ve probably been getting advice from soneone who’s done one, but tested?
I raise this issue after spending two hours a few years back at a detailed and I thought fairly complete lecture on what was needed to do a missile delivered fission bomb .
The lecturer thought success was unlikely without testing and even assuming the knowledge was there some of the processes involved are tricky. Guy is still alive but doesn’t live here anymore so I can’t ask him for an update.
john ferguson,
I think the difference is the whole “death to Israel” thing. We let N Korea develop a bomb, but they were not directly (and constantly!) threatening to wipe a country off the map. I think Iran is a uniquely dangerous country, motivated by a uniquely dangerous religious fanaticism, and with leaders who appear uniquely insane.
Nobody would care if Iran were enriching to commercial reactor levels (eg 6% U235), but everything they are doing is consistent with producing weapons grade material; there are no other plausible motivations.
I hope we don’t get involved at all, but it is clear that Trump is not going to allow the production of weapons grade material to continue.
TomScharf. I completely agree. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if most of the Arab coutries would like regime change in Iran so long as they don’t have to do it themselves.
My thoughts were more toward whther Iran could actually manufacture and deliver a bomb in the foreseeable future. As someone on PBS suggested the other night, maybe by Lorry.
Iran is sending 3,300 lb warheads into Israel now. They still have to miniaturize a warhead but Iran gets all the political effects it needs by detonating a smallish 50 Kiloton yield atomic bomb. Stepping up to fusion bombs is another level but not really required for deterrence.
If the point is the nuclear annihilation of Israel by missile is still a ways off then that is correct. The first US bombs were 10,000 lbs.
I very much doubt Iran would do anything without local testing first which would be detectable by the US. The Norks had a few fizzles before they had success.
It’s not trivial to do an implosion device but it also isn’t that hard. The US did it 80 years ago. They also did a gun type thing where they just fired one segment of uranium into another to get to critical mass.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gun-type_fission_weapon
Tom Scarf, it isn’t the weight of the device so much. as the detailed design for its ride to the point of detonation. Remember that our first efforts were dropped out of airplanes not shot to their destination in missiles.
I wish I’d been able to take notes on what had to be done to get reliable detonation of even a fission device after a missile ride, or for that matter a cannon round ride.
Tom Scharf,
A gun type device is said to be at risk of turning into a ‘fizzle’ if a stray neuron happens to start the chain reaction a microsecond too soon….. too early a chain reaction can make the thing blow itself apart (going rapidly non-critical) before much fission takes place. Hence the preference for implosion devices…. much more reliable, so long as you can time the explosive charges accurately enough.
john a ferguson wrote: “The thing that puzzles me is that there is all this angst about nuclear threat from countries which have never tested one.”
It is because once a country has nukes, it is pretty much too late to do anything about it. There should have been more angst about North Korea’s nukes 20 years ago. And Iran is much worse.
There is a lot of testing that can be done without creating a nuclear explosion. So an actual bomb has an excellent chance of working first try. The Fat Man design worked the first try. The Little Boy design was never tested before Hiroshima. Israel has probably never tested their bombs. North Korea seems to have had a fizzle on their first test, but it still had a yield of about a kiloton. That would kill an awful lot of people.
Remember than the Iranians were not staring from zero. They had lots of help from Pakistan and the Norks. Just as the Israeli’s had help from the French.
I don’t see a problem re missiles. If you can engineer a satellite to survive launch, you can surely engineer a bomb to survive launch. And the bits that matter can be launch tested without any fissile material.
Has the US ever launch tested an ICBM/nuke system? I think the answer is “no”.
After a quick scan through this, it seems that the US, USSR UK, France, China, India, and Pakistan all succeeded on their first test.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests#
Of course, an unsuccessful test would be much more likely to escape detection.
My impression is that testing is needed mainly to determine how well the device works rather than if it works.
SteveF
āthey need to take out the Ayatollah and hope for something betterā
The chance of something much better seems slim. OTOH, there is not a lot of down-sideā¦. whatever comes after the Ayatollah is not likely to be much worseā¦ā¦ constant promises of ādeath to Israelā by the Ayatollah sets a pretty low bar.ā
–
Greed and envy would work better.
They need to take the Ayatollah out,
To Disneyland and Las Vegas.
Give him 10000 dollars to spend at theCasino and some home cooked Turkey and Apple pie.
Then send him back to Iran.
With a promise of a yearly return if he is good.-
–
Would have worked with the Afghanis and been a lot cheaper as well.