Betting

July UAH Temperature Anomaly Bets

11 Comments

Place your on the July UAHTTL value that will be posted at Roy Spencer’s blog in early August bets here:

[sockulator(../musings/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/UAHBets2.php?Metric=UAH TTL?Units=C?cutOffMonth=7?cutOffDay=15?cutOffYear=2010?DateMetric=July, 2010?)sockulator]
The cut-off is set at “7/15/2010”. I still haven’t quite figured out whose time zone this is– I think the clock is local to Dreamhost, which is in California.

The bets on UAH are now pre-scheduled to appear on the 5th of each month. I’m assuming most who bet know the drill. If you don’t ask in comments.

11 thoughts on “July UAH Temperature Anomaly Bets”

  2. Sod:

    Look at channel 13 (5 mb) and it will make you feel better. The stratosphere is warming.

  3. Sod–
    Sure. This El Nino is seems to have been more powerful than 2007, so that might have been the case even if there is no underlying warming. It looks like we may be heading into a La Nina. If it ends up unusually strong, and the months don’t overlap the 2008 La Nina we may see months temperatures lower than anything since 2002.

    I’m mostly bummed that site no longer shows a 20 year baseline and the tail end of 1998. Even though comparison of days is looking at noise, I liked seeing how this year compared to 1998.

  5. Carrot– I don’t keep data on that. It’s purpose is to keep ‘bots from entering things; spambots generally can’t do arithmetic.

  6. Dr. Spencer’s group has updated the graph of raw daily data to include record high, record low, and average.

    We’ve started July a smidgen hotter than 1998, according to the raw data.

    It appears the last couple days of data, July 5th and 6th, 2010 have set new all-time record high absolute temperatures, at 254.32K.

    Of course a difference of a couple hundredths of a degree is not statistically significant, but a record is a record.

  7. Benjamin–
    Thanks for letting me know! Now I can create daily anomaly graphs. I like to examine the record on anomalies since July is typically warmer than january.

  8. You’re welcome. 🙂

    Yeah, anomalies definitely carry more information, as a rule, but, I thought the fact that we just tallied the record for absolute high was mildly interesting.

    I guess the absolute high more or less equates to highest anomaly in July, which we just set at +.61. Certainly that anomaly is nowhere near the highest recorded all-time, which seems to be a little over .8°C.

  9. BenjaminG–Sure. It is interesting. Obviously, if Chicago hits the all time high in July, the weatherman doesn’t say “Yawn. After all it’s July. It’s not like we hit an all time high in January.” Or if the all time high on earth is hit in some place that’s always hot, the weather man doesn’t say, “Oh, I’m not reporting that till it hits 50C in Antarctica!!”

    So, those are interesting.

    But I like to look at anomalies because… well…climate blog.

  10. Just an observation but temperatures on the UAH seem to peak in July, while IIRC in the nothern hemisphere temperatures tend to peak in August (in the South they tend to be at their lowest in August).

    Anyone care to coment?

  11. BenjaminG (Comment#48450) July 9th, 2010 at 2:32 pm

    It appears the last couple days of data, July 5th and 6th, 2010 have set new all-time record high absolute temperatures, at 254.32K.
    = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
    July 10 had 254.33K. If it is the official record then it beats the 6th by 0.01K.

    Equatorial Pacific is showing a pretty clear cool anomaly, suggestive that la Nina will be here soon.

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