Just to mix it up, the bet-challenge for July Sea Ice will be to forecast the average JAXA sea ice recorded for the July 18-July 31 inclusive. That’s right, I forgot to put a “July Bet” at the end of July, so this bet is for the final 14 days of the month. It’s a pretty short term average which means more noise which will give the non-experts a better chance. ๐
For those of you who want to bet, here is the entry form:
[sockulator(../musings/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/UAHBets2.php?Metric=NH Ice?Units=10^6 sq km?cutOffMonth=7?cutOffDay=17?cutOffYear=2010?DateMetric=july, 2010?)sockulator]
The cut-off day for betting is recorded as 7/17; I think this means you have to enter your bests by midnight July 16.
It appears some people want to bet on the less entertaining SH Ice. To do that we need to select precisely what we are going to monitor, select a reporting agency who reports quickly, and also pick a time period. Any suggestions?
For Antarctic ice, the only choice for data that I can see is Cryosphere Today Antarctic area. They’re a couple of days behind real time, but they update daily (mostly, they sometimes get behind over holidays). A bet on the maximum area might be interesting. It’s very noisy at the max so something like the maximum for the running 7 day average would probably be better than the absolute maximum. Monthly averages would also work.
What we need is a psychic octopus:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/world/europe/10521867.stm
I like best to check Norsex ice area found at Arctic ROOS. The northern hemisphere has the ice mass that is of most interest to the general population because of Al Gore’s movie. Besides it is so dynamic. It spreads out, bunches up, slides back and forth then swirls around. Ice area max during growth months and minimum during the shrinking months. Just the daily minimum reported by Arctic ROOS.
Ummm … shouldn’t that be the final *24* days? In the circumstances, it’s a bit rich restricting entries to those who can add …
re:” julio (Comment#48000)
July 6th, 2010 at 10:26 am
What we need is a psychic octopus:”
Well, but he is always wrong wrt spain. ๐
Alex– Sorry. The title is correct; there was a typo in the body. It’s the last 14 days– the 18th to the 31st. Thanks.
Not this time!
Actually, it is an impressive run: the octopus has been right 6 times out of 6. A good reminder, perhaps, of how dangerous it is to draw conclusions (such as that the octopus really is psychic) based on relatively short trends… But, all the same, I’m looking forward to his forecast for Sunday’s final. ๐
Julio, wasn’t its predictions only for Germany matches?
Tim W.,
Yes, so far, but it seems they have decided to ask him about the final too, according to this article.
I want to take him to Las Vegas and play red/black on Roulette!
Jiff Id on sea ice:
http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2010/07/10/2345-2/#more-9545
Well, this is going to be a tricky bet. Most of the actual true sea ice loss is masked (hidden) by the poor conditions in the central pack, due to the reversal of the Beufort Gyre which has been going on for three weeks now. When the Gyre return to normal, we will start seeing huge loses in extent as the pack compresses. Forcasts indicate that the Gyre will return to normal in the next few days.
Don B (Comment#48548) July 10th, 2010 at 5:34 pm
Interesting, he’s trying to out Monckton Monckton.
Re: Lord Soth (Jul 16 04:57),
The ice in the upper Northwest Passage is showing low concentration for this time of year. It will be interesting to see if it opens. Ice area is still closer to 2007 than any other year. Extent will catch up eventually.
I got my dates mixed up ๐
I would have bet 6.9.
Extent is due to fall off a cliff any day now. Ice area is between 2007 and 2008, but extent is tracking 2009. That means very low concentration. The maps show large areas of low concentration in the Arctic Basin. Absent some sort of miracle, most of that’s going to melt or fall below the 15% cutoff real soon now. The upper NW passage looks almost clear with at least a full month of melt season to go.
Don B at 7.57 is likely to be the winner with me in second place, but it will be close. The projected average is 7.362. I needed an average below 7.335 to win. If I’d been less pessimistic and just gone with the average based on the extent on 7/15 of 7.27 Mm2, I’d have won easily. Oh well…
DeWitt Payne (Comment#50227) July 30th, 2010 at 7:58 am
We’re coming dangerously close to betting on the betting here. An intrade style market is only a step away.
Carrot– Yep. I think that happens with all sports betting. ๐
The unofficial number I got is 7370569.4 sq. km.
I was way off this time. I did not expect the ice to spread out so much, and the area vs extent diverging to such a degree.
With the arctic ice pack, now a gigantic slushie, it is way more susceptible to weather conditions.
August will be an interesting month.