Data Comparisons

GISS: Temperature Anomaly drops, 3rd Hottest June in Record.

9 Comments

GISTemp announced a June Temperature Anomaly of 0.59C; that’s lower than May 2010 (0.66C) or June 2009 (0.62). It is tied with June 2005 for 3rd hottest June in the GISTemp record and exceeded by June 1998 (0.69C) and June 2009 (0.62 C). Monthly temperature anomalies since 1980 are shown below, with June values circled in blue:

Figure 1: GISSTemp Monthly Temperatures and Least Squares Trends

Several visitors have been interested in monitoring the 12 month average temperatures. These shown in blue below; the multi-model mean computed based on the models extended into the future using the A1B scenario are displayed for reference:

Figure 2: GISTemp 12 month smooth temperature anomalies

Examining the graph we see that,

  1. The 12 month lagging average remains at a record high value. Because many are interested in “what if” games, I computed the hypothetical 12 month lagging average if the temperature anomaly stays stuck at its present value. This is shown with very small green dots. What we see is that if the temperature anomaly remains at the present value or declines, the 12 month average has reached its peak for this El Nino.
  2. Near a local peak due to El Nino, the GISTemp 12 month average is close to the multi-model mean value. This is similar that what has been observed at the top of previous El Ninos.

9 thoughts on “GISS: Temperature Anomaly drops, 3rd Hottest June in Record.”

  1. To make sense of the A1B model, we have to know when it was frozen. In other words, what part of the data was used to tune the model, and from what year on are the triangles the prediction of the model?

    I’m sure the info is readily available… so I thought I’d ask (instead of looking it up!).

  2. AMac–
    The A1B is a SRES for emissions. Those were published in a a special report Nov. 2000 and published on the web in 2001. http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_sr/?src=/climate/ipcc/emission/

    This web-site contains the full text and graphics from five special reports by the IPCC’s Working Groups. The reports were first released for COP 6 in The Hague, November 2000, and was prepared and published to web by GRID-Arendal in 2001.

    So, the A1B SRES were frozen sometimes during 2000. The first full year after they were frozen is 2001. That’s why I like starting test of forecasts in Jan 2001. It’s the first full year after the SRES were frozen.

  3. Hottest June Haiku
    .
    Hoi Sizzles Hot
    Blue Pool glitters wet and cool
    Deep Breath Dive

  6. So this is following the pattern that we would expect if we are coming out of an El Niño?

  8. The Old Man of June
    Gasps last climate Wonder Boy.
    Loons these mortals be.
    =============

  9. We are in La Nina conditions now. Nino 3.4 was -0.8C last week and is forecast to get below -1.5C by November.

    So temps are on their way down until March 2011 at least.

Comments are closed.