This is late, but I am now posting the winners bets on the 7 day ice minimum. The winning value was 4.8757 million square kilometers. There appear to have been were two opportunities to bet.
One was before June 1: The post corresponding to this bet is missing– likely deleted when I was having server issues. However, the bets are in the database! These are listed as 7 day minimums, so I am assuming it was for the long range bet. If not…well… ehrmm… Maybe I’ll have to figure out someway to give people quatloos for betting that the Sept. minimum would be reached in June! (There was also a bet for the 30 day June average. Quatloos were distributed for that bet.)
The other bet was similar with a different time table before July 1. The post corresponding to this bet Longish range Forecast.
First: As noted in the early reports in October, this years 7 day minimum was lower than last years 7-day minimum. These were 5.8757 million square kilometers and 5.28 million square kilometers respectively. The two are compared below:
In the figure above, you can see we are clearly past the minimum, as expected at this time of year. The 7 day average is recovering sharply, and I may need to set bets for the upcoming months.
Now for the winners of both sets of bets:
Bets placed before July 1 for 7 day minimum: The winner is MikeP, who too all the quatloos!
| Rank | Name | Prediction (x 106 km2) | Bet | Won | |
| Gross | Net | ||||
| — | Observed | 4.8757 (x 106 km2) | |||
| 1 | MikeP | 5.45 | 5 | 22 | 17 |
| 2 | lucia | 4.2 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 3 | DeWitt Payne | 4.15 | 2 | 0 | -2 |
| 4 | Phil | 4 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 5 | Lord Soth | 3.87 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
The winner for the really long range bet: AMac who netted 15+ quatloos!
| Rank | Name | Prediction (x 106 km2) | Bet | Won | |
| Gross | Net | ||||
| — | Observed | 4.8757 (x 106 km2) | |||
| 1 | AMac | 4.91 | 1 | 16.033 | 15.033 |
| 2 | pdjakow | 4.921 | 5 | 64.131 | 59.131 |
| 3 | AndyW | 4.69 | 2 | 5.836 | 3.836 |
| 4 | DeWitt Payne | 4.654 | 2 | 0 | -2 |
| 5 | Roger Knights | 5.1 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 6 | Nightvid Cole | 4.65 | 4 | 0 | -4 |
| 7 | Neven | 4.622 | 4 | 0 | -4 |
| 8 | mb | 4.444 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 9 | Andrew Kennett | 5.322 | 4 | 0 | -4 |
| 10 | EddieO | 5.34 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 11 | Hal | 4.279 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 12 | Don B | 5.485 | 4 | 0 | -4 |
| 13 | Phil. | 4.25 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 14 | MikeP | 5.7 | 4 | 0 | -4 |
| 15 | John Egan | 5.754 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 16 | Les Johnson | 5.77 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 17 | Steve | 3.9 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 18 | Robert Leyland | 5.87 | 4 | 0 | -4 |
| 19 | Richard Dupuis | 6 | 4 | 0 | -4 |
| 20 | MikeN | 6.013 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 21 | JimR | 10.95 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
The net winnings for each member of the ensemble will be added to their accounts.
To the winners: Don’t spend these all in one place. Spread it around all the galaxies.
Hey Barmaid —
Virtual drinks for everyone!
Nice wimpy bet, AMac. 🙂
Indeed… but which Wimpy? 😉
I’d hate to see my Quatloo debt. 🙁
Boris–
I need to add something to print out the balances!