Data Comparisons

Lucia’s Nov. 1-7 NH Sea Ice Bet

5 Comments

I decided I should bite the bullet and bet. Voila:

Figure 1: NH Sea Ice Trends & Lucia\'s Bet
Figure 1: NH Sea Ice Trends & Lucia's Bet

My method is unsophisticated (to say the least.) Here it is:

First based on the trend for Nov 1-7, I would estimate the ice extent would be 8.631E+06 square km. However, I also know the sea ice recovered briskly. So, I checked the trend for Oct 4-10, and discovered this year sea ice is 1.94E+05 square KM above its trend line.

However, I would be surprised if the ice stayed this far above the trend, so I added one half that amount to the 8.631E+06 and came up with 8.728E+06 square km. Obviously, the method of estimating doesn’t warrant the precision normally associated with four significant figures. But this is a bet: We need specific numbers! My bet is illustrated in figure 1 above. It’s the purple circle hovering just above the extrapolated trendline above.

Below you can see how my bet compares to those of others:

Figure 2: NH Ice Bets with Lucia\'s bet.
Figure 2: NH Ice Bets with Lucia's bet.

I’ll be posting all the bets and providing all relevant links by updating the brownie bet post.

5 thoughts on “Lucia’s Nov. 1-7 NH Sea Ice Bet”

  3. I guess my best option for maximising my winning chance is to say I stick with my first bet and suggest that we need a rule against changing bets (I only asked if I could change my bet in the first place, putting my ‘rules lawyer’ hat on I would argue I never actually changed my bet).

    Of course there may be somebody out there who hasn’t bet, is waiting until the last possible moment to bet and will decide that the gap below me is too good to pass up (in comparison to the reduced gaps above me).

    Yeah I want to win, but I also like thinking about and talking about the game theory behind this bet. Although I guess most people just try and make their best guess at what they think will happen as opposed to finding the bet with the best chance of winning.

    Its interesting to observe that many bets seem clustered between 8.5 and 9. Then there is a tail of bets for above 9, but no tail for below 8.5. Not sure if this says something about the current blog climate where people may fear ridicule if they guess low. Or cautious AGWers who just want to avoid adding more to the ‘they predicted no ice at the north pole this year’ fire.

  4. How about if Lucia wins, all of the bettors pitch in enough via Paypal (or similar) to buy her and her husband a dinner or something? Sound fair?

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