As many of you are already aware
Roy Spencer reported the UAH anomaly for January: -0.009C. Stephan, who I suspect may have predicted 0 or negative anomalies every month since forever bet 0 and won the quatloos! (Bear in mind, UAH changed baselines.)
The results of other bets are:
| Rank | Name | Prediction (C) | Bet | Won | |
| Gross | Net | ||||
| — | Observed | -0.009 (C) | |||
| 1 | stephan | 0 | 5 | 81.656 | 76.656 |
| 2 | Don B | 0.01 | 4 | 52.26 | 48.26 |
| 3 | Lance | 0.01 | 4 | 12.085 | 8.085 |
| 4 | Zer0th | 0.011 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 5 | sHx | 0.015 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 6 | Tombo | 0.02 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 7 | steve T | -0.04 | 4 | 0 | -4 |
| 8 | Hal | -0.05 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 9 | harrywr2 | 0.05 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 10 | J Mens | 0.05 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 11 | Greg Meurer | 0.05 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 12 | MikeP | 0.058 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 13 | Troy_CA | 0.061 | 4 | 0 | -4 |
| 14 | Pavel Panenka | 0.07 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 15 | Owen | 0.085 | 4 | 0 | -4 |
| 16 | Vlasta | -0.111 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 17 | ErnieP | 0.096 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 18 | Cassanders | -0.114 | 4 | 0 | -4 |
| 19 | Freezedried | -0.115 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 20 | pdjakow | 0.1 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 21 | ivp0 | 0.1 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 22 | DeNihilist | 0.11 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 23 | pietee | 0.123 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 24 | Kevin Johnstone | 0.14 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 25 | Arfur Bryant | 0.14 | 4 | 0 | -4 |
| 26 | TroubleWithTribbles | 0.14 | 4 | 0 | -4 |
| 27 | enSKog | 0.146 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 28 | Diego Cruz | 0.158 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 29 | Jon P | 0.163 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 30 | Robert Leyland | 0.184 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 31 | Boris | 0.187 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 32 | AMac | 0.198 | 2 | 0 | -2 |
| 33 | denny | 0.2 | 4 | 0 | -4 |
| 34 | Tim W. | 0.258 | 4 | 0 | -4 |
| 35 | Andrew kennett | 0.48 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
The net winnings for each member of the ensemble will be added to their accounts.
For those of you wondering about Mo– he’s resting peacefully. It turns out he has a high white blood cell count. Evidently infections can lower blood glucose, and may be the cause of the crisis. I’m giving him anti-biotics and staying home to watch. No gym for me for the next few days.
0 !?!?
This month, I coulda been a contender!
With a second place for January UAH and a first place for November, I am struggling, trying not to be fooled by randomness.
(h/t Nassim Taleb)
Good going DonB. Don’t spend all those quatloos in one place now!
feabqtcgy– Learn to add and you could win!
With RSS nose diving in January as well, I just cannot wait to see another record setting “hot” month from GISS… That will be comedy.
Jon:
You’re right – I’ll bet right now the GISS folks are once again lowering their early 20th century temperatures to assure the “hottest ever” meme.
1934 is a bugger…
Whew! It’s a good thing I don’t play Las Vegas cause I stink at this game. Better luck next month.
The La Nina is now 7 months old, the average duration during negative PDO is 21 months, in Zekes wager it’s 2 strikes and you’re out and it looks like Mother Nature has thrown a pretty good first pitch. Did the wager settle on GISS? It’s not that I don’t trust it, I just don’t trust it. The four main datasets rebaselined to use an average of the four would at least limit the damage from the outlier to a 25% weight.
It would be interesting to compare this with RSS. It seems that UAH has 2010 warmer than RSS, especially after the latest correction of RSS trend which has been lowered for the last 10 years.
HEY, i’m in the money! Anyone got a spaceship to Kilgon?
I believe that is one in a row!
Finally I got one right! LOL Thanks Lucia I will buy out the whole warmista establishment with my quatloos!
Lucia: All I am saying or guessing is that your very interesting, detailed, trend analysis is probably of more interest to your readers, because all this politics concerning who said what in my view anyway is irrelevant (but very exciting at the moment,lets get Steig or lets get Ryan O making some fregging mistake hahaha). BTW tahnk god we have CO2 otherwise I would be dead, Did you know I could not breath without it (it tells my brain that ther is not enough oxygen) BTW MSC, PHD Physiology