Betting

Bet on February UAH!

44 Comments

Time to interrupt the all-arguing-all-the-time meme and bet on UAH temperature anomalies for February. You know the drill!

Anyone who wishes to discuss anything about temperatures trends etc. this is the place to do it. I’m now going to R script-i-fy various plots, likely tweaking defaults to make line thick and “ugly”. While I’m doing that, feel free to bet: Remember: the baseline shifted.

[sockulator(../musings/wp-content/uploads/2011/UAHBets5.php?Metric=UAH TTL?Units=C?cutOffMonth=2?cutOffDay=20?cutOffYear=2011?DateMetric=Feb, 2011?)sockulator]
For will vanish sometime around 2/20/2011.

44 thoughts on “Bet on February UAH!”

  3. Lucia is it possible to change my bet to -0.4C? apologies for inconvenience but after looking at the AMSU satellite data this seems more likely thanks

  5. Stephan,

    Weather. I’d also be somewhat skeptical of measurements prior to 1800, as instrument changes and whatnot make it difficult to compare.

  7. Lucia and Zeke,

    Yes, we all understand that Local Weather is Global Climate if the Squggly Lineâ„¢ goes up. Thanks for the reminder, though.

    Andrew

  9. “Nah, weather is cherry-picking a single month”

    I can’t agree. Weather is what actually happens. It’s not a point on a graph. The line on a graph is just a drawing, dude.

    Andrew

  10. I don’t think you understood (remembering that its supposed to be “global warming”). All recording sites should show recent consistent and significant warming if it was “global”, that’s what I meant. BTW, This longest record of temps has apparently being removed from the Met office site because it has become too inconvenient.

  11. Stephan

    All recording sites should show recent consistent and significant warming if it was “global”, …

    Who claims this? I’m pretty sure no one claims this.

  12. “lucia (Comment#69581)
    February 14th, 2011 at 3:03 pm
    Stephan

    All recording sites should show recent consistent and significant warming if it was “global”, …

    Who claims this? I’m pretty sure no one claims this.”

    Lucia,

    I think stephan is saying that Global Warming isn’t an accurate description of anything that’s actually happening.

    He’s not the only one who thinks that.

    Andrew

  13. Stephan,

    You seem a tad confused. “Global warming” never implied monotonic warming across the globe; rather, it is the warming of the global mean temperature due to an imbalance between energy inflows (from the sun) and outflows (mostly from long-wave radiation). A single station will tend to show a lot more variability than numerous stations, and a single part of the world will show considerably more variability than the whole world.

    I’m also not sure why CET is somehow inconvenient. It shows warming over the last century broadly consistent with global land temperature warming, and is effectively identical to the record from the GHCN stations used to create the global surface temperature record.

  14. AndrewKY–It seems to me that you are putting words in Stephan’s mouth. Mind you, he may agree with you.

    But even if he does, just because the world warmed ~0.7C doesn’t mean that a plot of Dec only temperatures showing a low value in 2010 contradicts anything anyone has claimed about global warming. It certainly doesn’t mean “Global Warming isn’t an accurate description of anything that’s actually happening”.

  15. Lucia,

    If the “warming” isn’t happening globally, then ‘Global’ Warming isn’t accurate. Find a better word.

    Andrew

  17. Shub–
    You never bet? The goal is to try to guess the Feb. temperature anomaly Roy Spencer will post. You bet between 1-5 quatloos. The payout depends on how close you got relative to others and how many quatloos you bet. Winners are announced after Roy posts the temperatures.

    It’s sometimes AMAZING to see what different people bet.

  18. Here’s an interesting piece I found on cooling:

    “The first 10 (Set 1) of Tony’s target stations, which at this point I should say seemed to be a randomly chosen set, were:

    “â– Brazil – Curitiba (1885 to 2009) Cooling 1955 to 2009
    ■Canada – Edmonton (1881-2009) Cooling from 1886 to 2009
    ■Chile – Puerto Montt (1951-2009) Cooling from 1955
    ■China – Jiuquan (1934-2009) Cooling all years
    ■Russia – Kandalaska (1913-2009) Cooling 1933-2009
    ■Iceland – Haell (1931-2009) Cooling all years
    ■India – Amritsar (1948-2009) Cooling all years
    ■Morocco – Casablanca (1925-2009) Cooling all years
    ■Adelaide – Australia (1881-2008) Cooling all years
    ■Abilene, Texas – USA (1886-2009) Cooling 1933-2009

    http://diggingintheclay.wordpress.com/2010/09/01/in-search-of-cooling-trends/

    Andrew

  19. Andrew,

    Warming is happening globally. That’s not contradicted by the fact that cooling may be happening locally in some areas over some time periods. The global trend is warming: this is not in dispute, even by people who question whether human activity is the cause.

    Hope this helps.

  20. PDA,

    My present dispute is with the use of the word ‘global’…

    glob·al (glbl)
    adj.
    1. Having the shape of a globe; spherical.
    2. Of, relating to, or involving the entire earth; worldwide: global war; global monetary policies.
    3. Comprehensive; total: “a .

    …describing something that isn’t global.

    Andrew

  21. Andrew_KY–
    I don’t know what you mean by “randomly chosen”. You link to a project that describes hunting for sites that show cooling to create a list of sites that exhibit cooling. Yes. If you hunt through all the temperature sets in then entire world, you can probably find some that show cooling. This does not contradict anyone’s claim that, averaged over the entirely planet, the temperature is rising.

  22. Andrew_KY,

    Would you prefer we start calling it global average warming? That’s a bit more awkward to say. Though now that I think of it, the globe is on average cooling for half the year and warming the other half, so its only long-term global average warming. 😛

  24. Andrew_KY–
    I think you should find blogs where they discuss fluctuations in global food prices and write things like this:

    “Today’s Washington Post includes a noteworthy opinion piece from Tim Searchinger of Princeton University concerning the impact of expanding biofuel production on global food prices and availability”

    Then explain that prices of some foods fell some places, and so the “food” prices haven’t risen “globally” because the price of oranges and tomatoes dropped in Bulgaria!

    In the seven days to February 6, the price of cabbages went up by nine stotinki a kilogram and carrots by 6.3 per cent, although oranges and tomatoes had dropped in price.

    http://www.sofiaecho.com/2011/02/11/1041541_the-food-price-factor

  25. Zeke,

    I would prefer that Global Warming Salespeople like yourself be more accurate during your sales pitch. I’m sorry if that makes you feel awkward. 😉

    Lucia, The ‘randomly chosen’ is from the article not me (maybe you should read it), and the comment timer sucks, FYI.

    Andrew

  26. I suspect I’m like Charlie Brown walking up to Lucy with a football here, but is it your contention that the term “global warming” should only be used if warming is monotonically positive everywhere, yea verily unto the ends of the earth?

    And if so, what would your proposed remedy be? Something like Zeke’s “long-term global average warming,” or some similarly politically correct compound noun like heterogeneously distributed elevation of thermal energy over indeterminate time frames?

    I mean, whatever tickles your pickle, but it seems a rather odd place to make your stand.

  27. PDA,

    In science, where I presume we are pretending to be, the idea is to be accurate. If that requires using more and longer words, then use more and longer words.

    Andrew

  28. PDA–
    Andrew_KY has been posting here for a long time, and I don’t know the 1 or 2 paragraph synopsis of his position about “global warming”.

  29. lucia (Comment#69610)
    February 14th, 2011 at 5:58 pm
    PDA–
    Andrew_KY has been posting here for a long time, and I don’t know the 1 or 2 paragraph synopsis of his position about “global warming”.

    Lucia,

    This just goes to show how perceptive you actually are. I’ve repeatedly over the years, commented my position, directly and indirectly, it hasn’t changed at all, and yet you still don’t now what it is.

    Andrew

  30. If that requires using more and longer words, then use more and longer words.

    Sure. Which is why in quantum chromodynamics we see repeated references to a gluon’s coupling constant and charge rather than talking about “color,” as if a subatomic particle could possibly be said to have such a quality.

    Seriously, though: if people would switch to – for example – Zeke’s term, you’d be all good?

  31. Andrew_KY–
    That’s right. I don’t know what it is. It may be that I read it, think it’s unbelievable and so simply cannot store it in permanent memory, but I don’t know what it is.

    On the timer: Yes. It’s annoying. But it does help some people slow down and read what others have to say a bit. This includes me.

    Some people have a natural tendency of listening before talking. They don’t even notice the delay.

  32. Re: PDA (Feb 14 17:53),

    > I suspect I’m like Charlie Brown walking up to Lucy with a football here

    Or, I’d turn back if I were you! (The sign Dorothy read just before being attacked by the flying monkeys.) 🙂

  33. PDA,

    If Zeke’s term is more accurately descriptive than the inaccurate one being used currently, I’d say that’s a step in the right direction.

    Andrew

  35. I must say, I’m more than passively fond of heterogeneously distributed elevation of thermal energy over indeterminate time frames (HDETEITF). That way the next IPCC report could have an IPHDETEITFAR5WG1SPM and I could finally beat my medical friends once and for all in the “who has the worst acronyms” game.

  37. I see.
    So would “the imaginary crisis of anthropogenic heterogeneously distributed elevation of thermal energy over indeterminate time frames (ICAHDETEITF)” be an alternative phrasing you would favor?

  39. “So would “the imaginary crisis of anthropogenic heterogeneously distributed elevation of thermal energy over indeterminate time frames (ICAHDETEITF)” be an alternative phrasing you would favor?”

    PDA,

    Yes. If it’s more accurate, wouldn’t you?

    Andrew

  40. Need to get my quatloo-account balanced.
    I do not (fore-)see much deviation from the current trend. I go for -0.213.

    Cassanders
    In Cod we trust

  42. Well you seems to be getting it now.. I rest my case global is global
    its supposed to be rising everywhere, that the whole point! Please refer to above Andrews definition of “Global” for further enlightment.. how long do UAH temperatures need to remain flat or continue falling before you regain your senses LOL (Ie relinquish your lukewarming status). Just for curiosity

  44. I think I’m too low this time. Oh well. At least if the list of bettors showed up I could likely take solace that somebody bet lower. 🙂

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