Martin kindly collected all the bets in comments, and I made them into a kewl graph! Here’s everyone’s bet:
I also downloaded the range of bets and super-imposed them on the current status of the NH Sea Ice Extent as tallied by JAXA::
My purple box is approximate– I slapped that on by eye. Still… guys…. Don’t you think a few of you bet a little…. just a bit… erhm…high?!
Since we’ll likely be returning here to comment, I’m showing a live version of the JAXA figure:
The ice has staged a very dramatic recovery. Let the wild speculation begin!
A live version of the October 8. value 😉
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/
There’s once-weekdaily detailed pictures there. On Friday, the picture had ice accumulation in the Denmark Strait (between Greenland and Iceland). Freezing the Denmark Strait would be pretty astounding… but today’s image doesn’t show nearly as much ice there.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.some.000.png
In my defense, my objective was to provide a demonstration of the folly of extrapolation into the future a curve fit to empirical data.
In the absence of causation, especially in the absence of any kind of proven basic theoretical foundation, extrapolation is to always be avoided. But I’m sure everyone here knew that.
I can see already that I have succeeded beyond all my expectations.
Dan: Yeah, that’s what I did too. I extrapolated as well.
Our numbers may fit the curve very well; they just don’t match reality.
That sounds familiar, doesn’t it?
Niels– Whoops!
The image that displayed was current– it’s the image at JAXA which permits hot linking.
But I took a short cut, cut and pasted an old link, and then pasted the image in. If you clicked for larger, it showed the Oct 8 image. Thanks for letting me know. Now click for larger goes to Jaxa.
Now, lets see how close “The Wisdom of Crowds” is to the real result.
I get 9.66 E6 for the average, and 9.25 E6 for the median.
I have to admit that I did not read the description carefully enough, and missed the avergae over Nov1-7 pat. Thinking I was guessing the end of the period value. Even so it is still too high!
oh well, fun to see where it ends up,
Robert
Wow, right in the middle. Definitely not intentional.
Robert– I figured some people must have thought they were betting for the max extent! That makes those bets more reasonable.
Dan– That— I actually suspected you of wanting to make a point. 🙂
This is a bit of a learning process. I’m in observational mode to figure out future rules, and maybe write a script to let people check their bets. Obviously, Phil mean “millions” of KM^2m so I fixed that. I suspect someone will always misunderstand something…. so I’ll need to script to show thing!
Sorry about inlining the image, I’d meant to just do a link. There’s a thumbnail of that same image in the directory that’s smaller if that’s better.
If Dan Hughes nails 13,3 I hope he’ll gets two brownies!! 🙂
Dan, Les shame on you. The figure will exactly hit my prediction at 11.59pm on 7th November. (I have my sources :-))
THE BROWNIES HAVE LANDED! Jeez and i are enjoying them.
happy birthday to me. happy birthday to me
I think 23, 24, 25 oct ice reached iceland, maybe warm warters wind etc melted/blew it apart? However maybe be sign of future refreeze there or overall cooling ie maybe sun finally starting to affect ocen temps up there…
Having traveled across the vast continent, the brownies are tired, yet still bold and moist with flavor.
For the long journey of congratulations was their appointed task, and despite the rigors of the distance, failure was not an option, and to be eaten by moshpit was their one and only focus.
Monday arrives, the concierge calls, the delivery reported, and GOOAAALLLL!
Happy birthday moshpit.
Alan S. Blue (Comment#6037)
Thanks for the link.
The animation is interesting
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/CT/animate.arctic.some.0.html
It looks alive, as if the ice up hit Greenland and recoiled 🙂 . I guess it was hot :).
Is it possible to redo the graph to make the name to the bet a bit easy on the eyes of us old guys?
I’m sure Bruce Willis will be on hand avex flamethrower to stop the larger bets if need be …
Regards
Andy
PS Phil is too clever not to have missed out the x10 6 so I think you should make him stick with his 8.9Km2 heh 😀
AndyW– Did you click the graph to make it larger? That’s been the norm since the most recent WordPress upgrade. The software shrinks the graph to 500 px wide for display, but when I insert, it’s wrapped with html that clicks to the full size.
I can also create a table.
AndyW (Comment#6066) October 27th, 2008 at 11:47 pm
PS Phil is too clever not to have missed out the x10 6 so I think you should make him stick with his 8.9Km2 heh
Indeed which is why I entered 8.9Mm^2, which is 8.9×10^12 m^2. 🙂
By the way lucia, the brownies were delicious.
Phil!
I’m glad they were fine. I usually use a 9 x 13 pan, and substituted the aluminum one for shipping which was smaller and made deeper brownies. I was afraid they might be too cooked on the edge and too raw on the inside! (I’m looking for 9 x 13 aluminum pans now!)
Now we’ll see who wins the big 7 day forecast! 🙂
Lucia, maybe seal them in a ziplock bag too, they should stay moister that way?
I was stupid and didn’t check whether the bags fit before I baked them. They bread bags I had were too narrow! (The height of those pans aggravates this issue.) So, I thought the aluminum foil would work.
For the next batch, I’m going to get the narrower pans, and find the correct plastic bags.
Eventually, I’ll have the perfect shipping method. Brownies are best fresh!
27 October, 2008 (08:33) | Data Comparisons
Martin kindly collected all the bets in comments, and I made them into a kewl graph! Here’s everyone’s bet:
Looks like we have our very own hockey stick. ;-\
Based on the latest numbers, I’m thinking the winner will be in the range of 9.1 to 9.2.
I have pondered a bit about the tendency seen in several years where ice-growth seems to level off a bit in mid oct-dec.
I suspect this tendency is reflecting the constraints posed by the geographical boundaries for the polar oceans. The variability could be a matter of ice distribution when approaching these boundaries.
To reach the maximum extension in Feb-April, the further expansion will mainly take place in the BAffin/Newfoundland, Kara-, Barents-, Bering- and Ohkotsk seas.
For this winter, some heat seems to be stored in the Kara and Barents sea, while Bering and Ohkotsk seas have lost considerable heat, and may freeze fairly quick.
Allthough I have been surprised by the speed of SST cooling this fall, I am not certain the Barents sea will cool rapidly enough for large areas to freeze. (caveat: both the Kara and considerable parts of the Barents seas are shallow, the amount of heat stored is not THAT large)
We might in fact nevertheless experience ice levels below 2007 for a short period (maybe mid-novenber).
If so, I am expecting a lot of alarming reports in the media, and triumphant fanfares from the AGW’ers 🙂
Cassanders
In Cod we trust
I think mine is looking a touch too high now. I should have gone for the nice round 9.000 I think for aethetic reasons.
What’s the difference between a US brownie and a cookie by the way? I’m in the Uk and am not well up on baked US treats.
Regards
Andy
A brownie is like a chocolate cake, baked in a pan, and is about 1″ thick. It is served in small (maybe 1″ x 2″) pieces and is very moist, chewy and delicious. It usually has walnuts or pecans in it. A cookie is flatter, baked on a cookie sheet, and typically not as moist, and can have many and varied ingredients.
Someone may want to expand on or correct these descriptions.
AndyW– Brownies are a ‘pan’ cookie. They are between cake and cookies. Some recipes are more cake like, some more cookie like. Then, there is the classic “Joy of Cooking” recipe.
I need to perfect shipping though! The Joy of Cooking recipe doesn’t ship well. (They are gooey on the inside and crispy on the outside. The problem is gooey inside doesn’t ship well.)
I’m looking for feedback when I ship. If these really don’t ship well, I’ll have to switch to chocolate chip cookies!
Joy of Cooking? Presumably that has ink diagrams where the man cook has a 1970’s bushy beard and talks about properly heating your oven first?
Yeepers.
I’ll have a British Eccles cake thanks if I win if that is the case. That won’t upset the vicar if I serve them for tea.
Looking at the values now I think we already have some losers. I think Phil and BobB are the outliers for this bet. Though of course i wouldn’t want to start hanging up the drapes at the Whitehouse yet of course.
Regards
Andy
AndyW–
The Joy of Cooking is on it’s billionth issue. (Only slight exaggeration.)
I have the 1984 version, which does include a recipe for squirrel, including directions on how to skin the squirrel. The edited out all of the older recipes recently, but people complained! So, some of the weird recipes got put back in the more recent issues.
I’m running scripts to explain about volcanos. But this evening, I’ll make more brownies so you can see the method. Do you cooking using cups, tablespoons etc. in the UK? If not, the recipe may be incomprehensible for you. (I can convert though.)
Thanks Lucia for putting me right 😀
I went around to my mums on Monday and she is 80+ years old and had a cooking book her mum owned out on the kitchen work surface that was falling apart It was Miss Tuxfords reciepes for the middle classes
http://cgi.ebay.co.uk/1930.-COOKERY.-RECIPES.-TUXFORD.-VGC._W0QQitemZ380075457194QQcmdZViewItemQQimsxZ20081024?IMSfp=TL081024118004r14264
1930 and still being used for cooking recipies in 2008 ..not bad eh?
Regards
Andy
Andy,
I looked in the JOC. The first printing was version was published in 1931. I have the popular 1975 version, which was on its tenth printing in 1978. The recipe for squirrel is on page 515. Here’s an illustration:
I’ve just bought my mum that cookery book to replace her worn out version, now AGW and ice in the arctic will make my mum happy happy.
It does make you wonder what the 1931 version of the JOC has within it’s pages if squirrels are still in 1975. When the new Miss Tuxfords turns up I will let you know what they were eating in 1930’s Britain compared to the USA.
Cookery books are very good as a common man history for life in those times.
Regards
Andy
It’s not just squirrel in the 1975 edition, there’s all sorts of small game recipes: rabbit or hare, opossum, porcupine, raccoon, muskrat, woodchuck, beaver and armadillo (otherwise known as opossum on the half shell). “Gray squirrels are preferred to red squirrels, which are quite gamy in flavor.”
DeWitt– I hope never to fall so low that I have to trap the opossums, raccoons and squirrels in my yard to use in stew. (I feed the squirrels. It all started when “Rumpy” the tail-less squirrel appeared with a bloody tail, which later fell off. Rumpy is now an obese tailless squirrel.)
Looks like we’ve already eliminated a few contenders and my guess isn’t looking very strong either!
There was a flaw in my projection method. I should have been using the 11/2 to 11/8 average for every year except 2004 to calculate the previous average and project this year’s average. But that pales in comparison to the extended period that the rate has been significantly above average. If things continue as they are, I now project the winner to be in the 9.1 to 9.2 Mm2 range. Only a missing day or two early or late in the measurement period could throw things off much.
Must be time to ask if a maximum extent bet will be starting up soon?
Maximum extent is about 5 months away. How about the average extent for the year or for OND (Fall season) based on JAXA data so we don’t have to wait for CT to post their data.
Looks like jaxa now recahed 2002+ extent
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Extent.png
Unfortunately the cryosphere data graph for Arctic ice appears to be off by 6-7 days everytime (not the image) so in this sense not reliable? Remember today Oct 30 in USA ….graph seems to end Oct 22-23?
You can get a confirmation by looking at the NERSC/NANSEN ROOS here:
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/ice-area-and-extent-in-arctic
They are usually within 2 days lag on updating.
While having fewer discrete years, they have a running 1979-2007 mean with +- 1 SD. As you can see, the ice area is now within the -1SD, and in fact approaching the 1979-2007 mean. As the latter also contains the relatively low ice-years post 2000, we shall not rule out the possibility that the 2008 will surpass the mean. (On the other hand, we cannot rule out a below 2007 value either, allthough the probability seems smaller and smaller these days.
Cassanders
In Cod we trust
Cassanders
In Cod we trust
An important message that may affect the outcome of this contest.
http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=02&fd=27&fy=1997&sm=02&sd=28&sy=2004
OK, the problem is that the fjords on the east coast of Greenland and the inlets on the north coast of Greenland have been covered with snow in the above comparison. As you follow all the coast lines around the entire perimeter of the sea ice you will notice that many bays and inlets have been “whited out” in every country. There have also been ice islands added. I wonder if this was the adjustment that I’ve heard about.
This could potentially affect the reported Arctic sea ice extent, area, anomolies and volume.
Tragically this could also affect the outcome of this contest.
Who knew that brownies could cause such a massive effort?
Also, IF CT is now NOT reporting ice shelves as part of ice extent and volume, the area and extent could actually decline as ice grows and temperatures plummet.
I am preparing a gracious concession speech.
hswiseman–
I was planning to insist on a recount involving hanging chads!
My above comment is only partly tongue in cheek. I know I was not even close on my bet, however there is still a problem with CT.
Gotta say, I’m still liking my bet.
If you take the 7 day moving average for the last 6 days:
8,037,500 (Oct 19th – 25th)
8,152,746
8,262,522
8,355,938
8,444,531
8,536,094 (Oct 24th – 30th)
From that calculate the daily rate of growth of the 7 day average:
126,049 (Avg on 25th – avg on 24th)
115,246
109,777
93,415
88,594
91,562 (Avg on 30th – avg on 29th)
Use those numbers to calcuate that the rate of growth in the 7 day average is declining at ~ 4.5% per day.
Take the last rate of growth, 91,562 and decrease that by 4.5% per day for each day out to Nov 7th:
87,442 – Oct 31
83,507 – Nov 1
79,749 – Nov 2
76,161 – Nov 3
72,733 – Nov 4
69,460 – Nov 5
66,335 – Nov 6
63,350 – Nov 7
and add the corresponging calculated rate of growth to each day starting with the 30ths ice extent and you get these daily projected ice extents:
8,904,473 – Oct 31
8,987,980 – Nov 1
9,067,730 – Nov 2
9,143,890 – Nov 3
9,216,624 – Nov 4
9,286,084 – Nov 5
9,352,419 – Nov 6
9,415,769 – Nov 7
Which averages, for the first 7 days of November, out to 9,210,071 km^2
Which, if these projections hold, would have me edging out MartinGAtkins by a measly 7,141 km^2
So, like I said, I’m still liking my bet.
Arthur
Past history suggests the rate will plummet soon rather than stay flat or decline slowly. Of course soon may be after 11/7. Still, 9.210 Mm2 would be about 0.07 Mm2 higher than 2002’s 9.14 Mm2, the current record holder for JAXA. The regression method I use says 9.10 Mm2 for the 11/1 to 11/7/2008 average based on 10/30 data. Note that I’m using 11/2 – 11/8 average data for all years other than 2004 and 2008 to correct for the extra day in February.
I should use fixed decimal places in my numeric columns. The actual record is 2005 at 9.187 Mm2.
Here is another sea ice comment:
379 tty
October 31st, 2008 at 11:50 am
Actually it’s wrong both ways. If you compare the two images in the link above and look at the russian coast from the White Sea east to Taimyr you will notice that in the older map the ice comes well inland. The Kanin Peninsula and Vaygach are more-or less obliterated. On the other hand the younger map, while less distorted is definitely a bit “snowed-over”, for example the whole Taz estuary which is about 250 km long and 40 km wide has disappeared completely.
Also there is another error I’ve mentioned before. From the 80’s and up to about 2003 the maps definitely shows ice in areas where there isn’t any. This is easily seen as “ice” in the Baltic in summer, where there never is any. Probably the ice in the Arctic is also exaggerated. Look at this for example:
http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=07&fd=01&fy=1990&sm=07&sd=01&sy=2006
There is positively never ever any ice in the Baltic in July!
Yes, 2005 is the current leader (from JAXA records)
but 2008 is nearly identical to 05 (26,718 higher than 2005 on the same julian date)
But 2008’s recent trend is a tad steeper than 2005’s.
Over this same period in November 2005 the arctic averaged a growth of 67,000 km^2 per day.
I’m hoping for just a tad more at ~73,000 km^2 per day in what appears to be a slightly colder 08.
Arthur
Arthur.
I have to pray that baby ice has a little growth spurt.
Jared (#5825) 9,150,000
MartinGAtkins (#5790) 9,186,585
adoucette (#5998) 9,226,000
steven mosher (#5984) 9,245,684
Earle Williams (#5843) 9,250,000
MarkR (#5805) 9,250,000
Fred Nieuwenhuis (#5962) 9,250,000
hoping for 9,236,000 or so.
That I think would give me the triple crown of climate betting this year.
baby ice bet, Hurricane 2008 bet which I have apparently nailed, and the nov 1-7 bet.
The one thing I didnt factor in was the decline in rate over Nov1-7 so, I’m not too bullish on my chances, but we’ll see.
DeWitt Payne (Comment#6160) October 31st, 2008 at 11:41 am
“I should use fixed decimal places in my numeric columns. The actual record is 2005 at 9.187 Mm2.”
I hope you’re right. 😉
adoucette (Comment#6154) October 31st, 2008 at 11:16 am ,
Not starting out all that well for you. 10/31/2008 8892344 km2. OTOH, the Arctic ROOS extent chart is way ahead of JAXA. It’s well over 9E06 km2 as of 10/30/2008 and based on past behavior, JAXA will catch Arctic ROOS eventually. The next week will be interesting.
I’ve revised my method of calculating the average to more accurately reflect that a year is 365.25 days long. 2005 approximate 11/1-117 average is now 9136194 km2.
Maybe,
But, while the 31st is 10% lower than my daily projection, its still, at 75,313
sq km, almost exactly what I need as a daily average.
Arthur