Betting

Bet on August UAH

18 Comments

Time for y’all to bet on August’s UAH! You know the rules: Enter your guess for August’s UAH. We’ll declare the winner after Roy Spencer posts. The cutoff is entered as Aug 15, which I think means it cuts off as soon as August 14 is over in Greenwich.

[sockulator(../musings/wp-content/uploads/2011/UAHBets5.php?Metric=UAH TTL?Units=C?cutOffMonth=8?cutOffDay=15?cutOffYear=2011?DateMetric=August, 2011?)sockulator]
Betting cuts off on 8/14.

18 thoughts on “Bet on August UAH”

  5. Lucia,

    Darn. I missed the cut-off. So my bet was going to be .28 with the idea that the month would continue to trend down.
    Probably saved some Quatloos anyway.

  6. There is going to be a SEARCH with that lets us bet on the Sept ice minimum at the end of august. That’s inspiring me to set up a 2nd betting pool for people to make short term bets.

  7. I am new to this blog, but I wondered if anyone had tried averaging the overall predictions each month, and comparing that with the actual figure?
    For the record, the mean of this month’s final estimates is 0.339c and last month, the mean was 0.351c, compared to the actual figure of 0.372c.

  9. Well, funny you should say that.
    I did consider a weighted average based on the number of quatloos bet, but I don’t think that people necessarily bet more because they are more confident of the prediction.
    Actually I tried it for June and the accuracy was marginally worse!
    I did notice that this month’s mean is almost identical to my own prediction. I don’t know if that is a good thing or not.

  11. Ray–
    I’ve never done the comparison between mean UAH value bet and the reported value. I should…. maybe after the ice minimum.

    Owen– Yes. It looks like it might happen. I also need to post Augusts surface temperatures– I’m waiting for “robot alert” to tell me HadCrut has posted. UAH was high, so was GISS. I haven’t looked at NOAA/NCDC or RSS, but I suspect they were high too.

  12. Lucia,
    Regarding HadCrut3, it seems that it being posted later in the month now, the excuse for May was late data and “minor problems with the database”, not sure about June.
    Actually the NCDC/NOAA global and N.H. anomalies were slightly down in July and I am also expecting the HadCRUT3 to show similar trend.
    My estimate for HadCRUT3 is about 0.42c, which to all intents and purposes is the same as last month.

  13. The AQUA CH5 (14000ft/600mb) temperature is currently indicating a cumulative UAH anomaly of between about 0.20c and 0.30c for August. The temperature had fallen quite dramatically between about August 7th and 17th, but has recently picked up again, although it is still much lower than during the first week of the month, so at the moment the cumulative figure is still falling.

  14. The AQUA CH5 temperature has now been rising since August 17th., and is now well above average again, as a result of which, the cumulative anomaly has again started to rise, albeit very slowly as it is late in the month. I estimate that based on this anomaly, the equivalent UAH figure now lies between 0.21c and 0.31c, probably nearer the higher end.

  15. AQUA CH5 temp. has been falling over the last few days, as it should be at this time of year, so the anomaly hasn’t changed much.
    My prediction for UAH, if AQUA remains unchanged, is now between 0.234c and 0.334c, probably at the high end.
    As AQUA is a few days behind, this will probably be the last prediction I can make before the actual AUH figure is published, if it is as early as last month.

  18. Thanks Louise–
    Wow, Roy is prompt!
    There’s going to be a delay on my post owing to my getting ready to go out to dinner. (And then labor day.)

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