19 thoughts on “What’s with JAXA?”

1. There are at least two possibilities. If there are no valid data for the period, you can legitimately call off the bet and there are no winners or losers. Or, when JAXA finally does post data, and there are no valid numbers for 11/1 to 11/7, you can do a linear interpolation to fill in the missing points and calculate an average from that. If I were the one that had to bake the brownies but not be able to eat them, I would take the first option. Those of us who have some small chance of winning and are drooling over the prospect of consuming made from scratch brownies would prefer the second.

2. Oh… I’ll make someone brownies. The question will be to determine what’s fair. Linear interpolation seems fair enough.

3. I agree with the linear interpolation. Often in November there are brief shut downs due to meteor showers? Perhaps we’ve hit one of those, although CT is still showing ASMR-E data for 11/01?

4. Yesterday when looking up the images for Nov. 1 computed from AMSR-E data, essentially only 1 band (pass) was showing of the Arctic.

5. JAXA shows an image for 11/02 here and Uni-Hamburg shows an image dated 11/02-03 here. It appears that there are data, just no analysis.

6. Phil. Meteor showers?
   DeWitt Payne. No valid data? Just like that?
   Latest available JAXA data indicate Arctic ice for all intents and purposes was back to 2002 levels.
   Lucia, I have a hard time imagining that this particular government agency is playing games with your promise to provide someone/winner with brownies.

7. “Phil. Meteor showers?”

   I’m not aware of any Meteor showers at this time nor any serious solar flares although there was an event some days ago it was not traumatic.

   Having said that, for some reason the data does seem to be erratic at this time of year if you look over the entire data set.

   tetris (Comment#6253) November 3rd, 2008 at 10:17 pm

   “Lucia, I have a hard time imagining that this particular government agency is playing games with your promise to provide someone/winner with brownies.”

   I wouldn’t be so sure of that. Think of it this way. If you were in Alaska at this time of year, wouldn’t you do anything to give your bet a better chance of winning Lucias tray of brownies? All we have to do is find out who placed a bet from Alaska. ;-\

8. I browsed some on the JAXA site and found a page on AMSR/AMSR-E Level 3 products. It looks like the 89 GHz receiver which is used for calculating sea ice concentration is down:

   Sorry, some products cannot be seen because of data deficit of 89GHz channel (receiver A).

   If you click on the blank image labeled Sea Ice Concentration AMSR-E, it displays an image dated 10/30/2008. Click to enlarge the image and you get not only larger images, but some drop down menus to select dates link. No images are available after 10/30/2008. Maybe it’s some solar interference thing, and maybe it’s a hardware failure. I couldn’t find any report on when or whether the receiver will be up again.

9. In the absence of data I claim victory. My model of the ice extent from Nov1-7 is consistent with prior observations. therefore, I am right and the brownies are mine. Plus, I was most accurate about the minimum, therefore it follows that I would have been right about Nov1-7; so there actually was no need to collect the data. Finally, jeez went on a midnight binge and ate half the friggin tin.

10. This point of the year is actually the worst time for linear interpretation because of the general shape of the graph over the last few years, we already have some examples of linear interpretation for guesses and they are starting over 10.000 🙂 If anything you should do less than linear, I had a quick go and came up with an estimate about 9.125.

    Talk about bad timing!

    Regards

    Andy

11. JAXA has data again. They haven’t updated the CSV file yet and the data for 11/2 may be preliminary, but there are ice concentration images for 10/31, 11/1 and 11/2 so I expect official numbers this morning at about 10 AM. The possibly preliminary number for 11/2/2008 is 8924688 km2. If that holds up, the rate has finally dropped and is tracking close to 2005. That’s also going to drop the projected average extent well below 9.1 Mm2. I may be back in the game after all.

12. Tetris– The idea that JAXA is playing tricks is a joke. I should note however, that when William Chapman suggested he might get in on future brownie action, I told him that if we use his numbers at CT, he can’t bet! He agreed that there would be a conflict of interest. 🙂 (I switched to JAXA because they supposedly put data up immediately. That way we don’t have to bug poor William, who was very nice about the first brownie bet.)

    AndyW– I agree that there are difficulties with interpolation, but it’s better to do something easier rather than harder. I hope whatever is causing the problem resolves itself. The unpredictability of the agencies is part of the game of betting. (Sort of like umpires bad calls in baseball.)

    One thing I can say: Those guys at JAXA aren’t getting any brownies for their services!

13. Hmmmm, Now JAXA has posted and graphed November 2, however, they used the October 31 number. Odd.

14. The Nov 2nd data is up, but the extent change is negative(?!)

15. Ok, who here hacked the JAXA site just to get the brownies ? 😀

    Regards

    Andy

16. Hmmm Ice is melting? Maybe the ice is just diving like a penguin?

17. All the hot air from the election finally got to the arctic.

18. Could it be the wind compacting the ice? Extent can drop for that reason.

19. This better:
    11 1 2008 8950000
    11 2 2008 8949844
    11 3 2008 8989063
    11 4 2008 -9999
    11 5 2008 -9999
    11 6 2008 -9999
    11 7 2008 -9999
    11 8 2008 -9999

    Current average: 8962969

    I’ll post an update!

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