Place your bets!
[sockulator(../musings/wp-content/uploads/2011/UAHBets5.php?Metric=UAH TTL?Units=C?cutOffMonth=1?cutOffDay=16?cutOffYear=2012?DateMetric=January, 2012?)sockulator]
Cut off Day: Jan 15.
32 thoughts on “Bet on the January 2012 UAH TLT Anomaly”
Comments are closed.
0.05 still betting on La Nina colling things off a tad longer
Not worth betting here anymore *(strange this move to suddenly put UAH as top notch site). Probably all your bets were way off anyway..Looks like RSS is much closer to truth and will need to adjust soon>
FROM wuwt
DR says:
January 4, 2012 at 8:36 pm
“@Walter Dnes,
Roy Spencer said recently UAH has a warm bias for the past few years IIRC and so there will an adjustment forthcoming.”
Fitzcarraldo –
To be fair, I really have no idea what your comment was trying to say. Would you mind an attempt at explication?
In case you misunderstood, the object of the exercise is to guess correctly he numbers published by UAH. It is not to estimate ‘truth’. Retrospective adjustments are neither here nor there.
Perhaps you’d like to continue betting solely on the grounds that I could do with your quatloos and I’ve had a very good tip about next months ‘published’ anomaly…
Fitzcarraldo/Andrew/ Cassandra/ Marian/ Andrea/, Marie deschamps/ Albert/ Laura Gonzales/ Rebecca/ Edward/ Stephan/ Reader —
Have you bet previously? Under which name?
Why do you think betting on UAH means it’s the top-notch site? It was picked because Roy usually post results before everyone else. And it’s betting.
BTW: I see your new email has posted twice and your previous comment was posted under the name “Andrew”.
(See http://rankexploits.com/musings/2011/eu-carbon-tax-on-flights-tofrom-europe/#comment-88065 )
Could you stick to one name? And one email address? If you chose Andrew, add something to distinguish from the other Andrews. Maybe Andrew_Au to match your email address or Andrew_Paraguay might do. BTW: I’ll be moderating your IP.
Lucia –
I’m so glad I’m not a sock-puppet, a spammer or a bot! 🙂
Anteros,
I think “Fitzcarraldo/Andrew/ Cassandra/ Marian/ Andrea/, Marie deschamps/ Albert/ Laura Gonzales/ Rebecca/ Edward/ Stephan/ Reader ” has the record for most name changes. There are more. Oh…. and the evidence suggests he used to post under his real name which I did not include in the list above.
“Enter your prediction for the official UAH TTL reading for January, 2011.”
Way too easy to “predict” last year. Better fix the date. 😉
Gary-
Shoot! That’s what I get for “scheduling”. I wrote it in 2012 and set it to auto publish. I better check the upcoming one for the 2012 annual average.
Is it TLT from the headline or TTL from the betting box?
What does it even stand for? TLT is a bond ETF and TTL is the transistor-transistor-logic chip in my mind…..
Too many acronyms in my head
Hal
Hal–
It’s Temperature of the Lower Troposphere. But… I’m not changing the betting box because it would cause too much work fishing out the correct bets later on!
Is there a way to see the bets now or do we wait for the 15th?
pdm–
Bets auto-reveal when betting closes. So, you have to wait.
Hmm… I was going to bet 5 quatloos on +0.027, and thought betting would be cut off a bit later than this time. Doggone it! Appears I was bitten by the UTC time once again!
AFPhys –
Living in the same time zone (and city) as Greenwich, I was going to post a ‘last call for bets’ yesterday evening (Greenwich-time) but thought it wasn’t my place. I’d have done you a favour had I been more assertive – and you could have won my quatloos! [5 @ -0.017, if I remember right..]
* Three and a bit days to get your annual bet in!
Anteros, that might actually have helped me. It was not only the time zone that bit me. I thought I had a full day more, so didn’t have the proper urgency about it. I put my annual bet in yesterday, anyway, though I hadn’t intended to bet in that before I missed the Jan betting.
You can call me, Fitzcarraldo and you can call me, Andrew,and you can call me, Cassandra and you can call me, Marian and you can call me, Andrea and you can call me, Marie and you can call me, deschamps and you can call me, Albert and you can call me, Laura Gonzales, and you can call me, Rebecca and you can call me, Edward and you can call me, Stephan and you can call me, Reader but please don’t call me Johnny.
Kenneth– I think for the time being “Fitzcarraldo has decided not to post. Or s/he has changed IP addresses, names and email addresses.
I was actually thinking about the lines from below which is much better in the original.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_J._Johnson
Saluga’s shtick as Ray J. Johnson is to become annoyed when addressed as “Mr. Johnson”, exclaiming in a loud voice, “My name is Raymond J. Johnson, Jr. Now you can call me Ray, or you can call me J, or you can call me Johnny, or you can call me Sonny, or you can call me Junie, or you can call me Junior; now you can call me Ray J, or you can call me RJ, or you can call me RJJ, or you can call me RJJ Jr.” ultimately ending with, “but you doesn’t hasta call me Johnson!”
Drat, my bet was accepted on Opening Day (IIRC), but it didn’t seem to have staying power. Perhaps Fitzcarraldo took it up the Amazon and dropped it in the water to be eaten by pirhanas?
Anyway, I can’t remember the anomaly I picked to place my quatloos on, which means Coulda/Woulda!/Shoulda!!
As long as nobody calls me “Shirley”!
No bet from you this month Lucia, which is a shame because
I like to know how you are thinking.
A quick analysis of this month’s bets:
A total of 26 entries for January, with a range of -0.05c to +0.22c, a mean of +0.084c and a median of +0.097c.
The mean of the first 13 bets was +0.091c and that of the last 13 bets was +0.077c, so a slight downward tendency as time went on.
After last month’s failure, I won’t attempt to predict the likely range this month, but the way AQUA CH5 is going, it looks like those on those in the lower half of the bets stand the most chance. Unfortunately, I find myself on the high side this month.
Ray, Thanks for your quick analysis of the bets for the month. It proves to be interesting.
Ray–
Had I bet this month, I would have just pulled a number at random.
Amac– I’ll hunt in the database to see if I screwed up. See Gary’s comment: Gary (Comment #88291) ? I know some of the early bets will be mis-clasified as 2011 in the database. They will have time stamps so I can easily shift them later.
Lucia,
I hope we will see a bet from you on the 2012 figure.
Annoyingly, I have the fifth lowest bet [-0.017] so for all anomalies that are extreme on the low side, I just fail to scrape into the money.
If I had three bets, would it make sense to go very high with one and very low with a second, to scoop up when there is an outlier in one direction or other?
*
Lucia – do you have an idea of how often one of the winning top four bets has been the lowest/highest? Enough of an idea to show my above suggestion to be nonsense?
Anteros– I haven’t ever investigated for that. I suspect it’s rarely the highest or lowest partly because sometimes people enter mistakes. For example: they mean to enter 0.1 and enter 1 or something like that. (Same goes for negatives.) But I’d have to look to figure it out.
lucia, i do not see my bet. i believe i entered my bet on or before Jan 10.
pdm–The early bets got entered as 2011 so the script isn’t picking them up. I’m going to go in and fix it but I haven’t yet.
The way things are going with AQUA CH5 this month, those at the low end of the bets are looking increasingly likely to win.
The last two daily temps. have been record lows for January and for the entire series since 2003.
Ray –
You’re right. It’s quite a dramatic fall (and is matched through the other channels). I’m a little worried that my bet being the fifth lowest will mean I end up first of the losers..
It’s almost enough to make one doubt the figures!
Ray –
I think the figures may have been toying with us. My bet [half a quatloo?] is that today’s channel five temperature will show a rise – and every other day in January will also be warmer than yesterday.
See the ‘prophecy channel’ [eight] for some evidence of where the energy transportation is occurring in the troposphere…
P.S.
Just for full disclosure – to take the impression that I genuinely know what I’m talking about on this subject would be a mistake 🙂