Betting

UAH Feb: Down a bit!

24 Comments

Roy has posted the February temperature anomaly. Those watching channel 5 expected Feb. would be cold. It was slightly colder than Jan. But not a lot. Like many bettors, I bet too warm. I was so far off I lost 1.711 quatloos. The top winners were: Robert Leyland , PaulS MikeP. Good going guys! (Tells us your secrets if you have any.)

I’m waiting for Jim’s cousins to call and don’t want to risk deferring the post should I get interrupted. So, no graphs for now! But here is the list of wagers:

Winnings in Quatloos for UAH TTL February, 2012 Predictions.
Rank Name Prediction (C) Bet Won
Gross Net
— Observed -0.116 (C)
1 Robert Leyland -0.114 4 62.614 58.614
2 PaulS -0.12 2 25.045 23.045
3 MikeP -0.121 4 40.073 36.073
4 sHx -0.11 5 40.073 35.073
5 Scott Basinger -0.125 1 6.412 5.412
6 Crashex -0.103 5 25.647 20.647
7 Larry -0.102 2 8.207 6.207
8 Don B -0.13 4 13.131 9.131
9 TimTheToolMan -0.13 5 13.131 8.131
10 Rick -0.13 3 6.303 3.303
11 John Knapp -0.132 4 6.723 2.723
12 RobB -0.135 5 6.723 1.723
13 Les Johnson -0.15 5 5.378 0.378
14 MarcH -0.15 5 4.303 -0.697
15 Freezedried -0.15 4 2.754 -1.246
16 dallas -0.08 5 2.754 -2.246
17 Anteros -0.077 5 2.203 -2.797
18 Steve T -0.17 4.88 1.718 -3.157
19 Lance -0.061 5 1.41 -3.59
20 Pieter -0.178 5 1.128 -3.872
21 Earle Williams -0.18 5 0.902 -4.098
22 lucia -0.05 2 0.289 -1.711
23 Peter -0.05 5 0.578 -4.422
24 BigBear -0.044 5 0.462 -4.538
25 Niels A Nielsen -0.043 5 0.37 -4.63
26 KÃ¥re Kristiansen -0.042 4 0.237 -3.763
27 Bebben -0.192 2 0.095 -1.905
28 Cassanders -0.192 5 0.189 -4.811
29 Anthony -0.04 5 0.151 -4.849
30 Bob Koss -0.039 5 0.121 -4.879
31 hswiseman -0.037 5 0.097 -4.903
32 Pachygrapsus -0.02 5 0.078 -4.922
33 YFNWG -0.02 5 0.062 -4.938
34 MDR -0.019 3 0.03 -2.97
35 Jeff Condon -0.213 5 0.04 -4.96
36 nzgsw -0.018 5 0.032 -4.968
37 CoRev -0.015 2 0.01 -1.99
38 Skeptikal -0.22 5 0.02 -4.98
39 Andrew Kennett -0.01 1 0.003 -0.997
40 PeterB in Indianapolis -0.224 3 0.008 -2.992
41 hmccard -0.225 4 0.008 -3.992
42 ob -0.001 5 0.008 -4.992
43 George Tobin 0 4 0.005 -3.995
44 jane 0 1 0.001 -0.999
45 Peter 0 2 0.002 -1.998
46 mct 0 2 0.001 -1.999
47 Owen 0 4 0.002 -3.998
48 George Bonser 0 1 0 -1
49 Tim W. 0 5 0.002 -4.998
50 Andrew_KY 0.001 5 0.001 -4.999
51 AFPhys 0.003 4 0.001 -3.999
52 Ray 0.005 5 0.001 -4.999
53 John F Pittman 0.01 4 0.001 -3.999
54 Hal 0.011 5 0.001 -4.999
55 BobW 0.011 4 0 -4
56 LC 0.015 4 0 -4
57 Simon -0.25 5 0 -5
58 BillC 0.02 2 0 -2
59 Anton 0.021 3 0 -3
60 ErnieP -0.286 4 0 -4
61 EDs 0.056 5 0 -5
62 John Norris 0.077 5 0 -5
63 Paul Butler 0.086 4 0 -4
64 AMac 0.089 3 0 -3
65 Pavel Panenka 0.094 3 0 -3
66 Denis 0.099 5 0 -5
67 Nyq Only 0.1 5 0 -5
68 Pdm 0.109 5 0 -5
69 plazaeme 0.11 1 0 -1
70 Arfur Bryant 0.12 5 0 -5
71 johnonomus 0.145 4 0 -4
72 denny 0.165 3 0 -3
73 HR 0.201 5 0 -5
74 MichaelP -0.75 5 0 -5

24 thoughts on “UAH Feb: Down a bit!”

  1. You mean down a bit? From -0.091 to -0.116?

    I wish the AMU data could display earlier years. A pretty big temperature swing shook up Feb, but averaged out a little low. So interesting to watch, and I can’t wait to see what March does. Will it go up a bit or stay steady? I think up a tad but… we’ll see!

  3. What’s with the mq (milliquatloo) winnings? I thought only the top finishers got any return.

  5. HaroldW –

    Maybe Lucia is getting ultra-progressive and is making sure there are no ‘losers’ and it’s the taking part that’s everything…

    I quite like the top five taking the lot – seems about right to me (even though I was desperately unlucky this month – again!)

    AFPhys –

    Congratulations. I.O.U one quatloo!
    If you like (and if you’re feeling confident) I can add a 1 quatloo bet to an anomaly of your choice for next month. Otherwise, payment is going to be problematic 🙂

  6. HaroldW–
    It’s all based on a super secret algorithm. When the top winners all wagered 5 quatloos, the winnings don’t spread much. When the top winners wagered less, the winnings spread more. Had PaulS who wagered only 2 quatloos been the top winner, the money would have spread even lower down the list!

  7. @sHx
    _you may probably spend them at “the restaurant at the end of the universe”.

    Cassanders
    “Don’t panic”

  8. So… I was wrong back a while ago when I proposed a bet that “of the next three months (January, February and March, at the time) the temperatures will go up in at least two of them”. Still, I regard this as good news. 🙂

  9. My secret was to look at the daily UAH temperature graphs, decide that 2011 looked to be following 2010 (for the first week) and then have the subsequent discrepancy (when the temps dropped back to record low territory) match the unknown calculation adjustment that Roy came up with. Simple. I’ve tried more complicated reasoning in the past, but usually wound up worse off for it.

  10. Oh well….

    I guess I’ll just have the government print me up some more o them quatloos.

  11. Smack dab in the middle of the list. Oh well, maybe I’ll be at my normal near bottom next time. Its a matter of pride doncha know?

  12. Mine was just a gut feeling from watching channel 5 but, I feel pretty good about it considering all the braniacs that hang out here. Back to stealth mode…

  13. The dartboard is as reliable as ever.

    SWAG mode on – I looked out the window and it was warm in N California, we are often on an opposing trend, and the rest of the world looked cold.

    Other than that, blind luck?

  15. Julio #92533

    I said last month would be the last time it would ever be negative!

    I’m a bit reluctant to do it again but hey we’re just coming out of La Nina

  17. Slightly O/T

    Does anyone know about the release date of Hadcrut4? I heard it was in press, but don’t know if that means Hadcrut3 is already history. I’ve been looking out for the Hadcrut3 data for January and it’s either very late or they’re not bothering.

    My paranoid side is suspicious because there was a reasonable chance [I’d give it evens for a quatloo] that it would have shown 15 years of cooling. Why do that when your new data is going to show 15 years of warming over the same period? Ditch it asap, especially with AR5 appearing on the horizon and the cut-off date just a couple of months away….

    Any non-paranoid info’ ?

  18. Steven Mosher (Comment #92545)

    Not sure that it would work on your proposed test subject, “it cannot stop people making meaningless sounds, such as “ahhh,” that are uttered over a long time period”.

    It is actually a very old idea and easy to test if you have a headset and an audio processing program that can implement the delay.

  20. Anteros:
    “Does anyone know about the release date of Hadcrut4? I heard it was in press, but don’t know if that means Hadcrut3 is already history. I’ve been looking out for the Hadcrut3 data for January and it’s either very late or they’re not bothering.”

    Don’t worry,the January figure has now been published.
    The same day as I asked them when it was going to be published, as it happens.
    Probably a coincidence but I wasn’t given a reason for the late publication.

  21. Ray –

    Thanks muchly.
    Don’t underestimate the power of your asking – you never know 🙂

  22. Anteros, your comment about 15 years of cooling had me wondering, so I have calculated the trends over various periods from 10 to 50 years.
    I am fairly certain that the longest period over which there is a negative trend is currently 14.9 years, although the trend goes positive again between 13.8 and 12.08 years, after which it is negative.
    From 15 years and above, the trend is increasingly positive but over about 19.5 years, the trend is a fairly constant at about 0.15c/decade, never falling below 0.138c and never going above 0.167c/decade.
    The highest trend is 0.167c/decade over a period of 38.08 years.
    What the significance of all of this is, I don’t know.

  24. Scott writes “Woo woo! I took 5th and got myself a few quatloos.”

    I got nineth and still got more quatloos than you 😛
    I think you’ll find our levels of risk were identical too.

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